In February, I lost my passport in the stupidest way yet. I was not mugged, pickpocketed or burgled (passports one to three), I did not drop it in a pond (passport four), or lose it in a house move (passport five), I just walked through a station in a bit of a daze, and by the time I got to my platform, it was gone. I tried to self-soothe with the fact that, at least I now had time to renew before the blue ones came in, but that plan did not square with the global pandemic, and the document arrived today, as blue as midnight and also as dark.

Some observations: we definitely are not in the EU any more. There are no stars, just a lion, a unicorn and a peculiar and bereft illustration of the UK, with Northern Ireland a floating blob, the rest of the landmass etched out like Trotskys face. I dont know why I should find this so disappointing. Obviously on some subconscious level, I thought it was all a dream, or a joke.

The colour, meanwhile, is not the nostalgia kick you might have hoped for, if that was your thing, since it genuinely is blue, while the pre-EU ones looked more like black. This somehow says it all about the Brexit project, that it would fight to the death over a principle that was trivial and wrong. Three flowers and a shamrock are embossed on the back, for poetry I suppose, except the daffodil could be any flower, and the overall effect is of someone finding free graphics on the internet for a superbly boring PowerPoint presentation.

Yet by far the worst thing about it was my own photo, as ever, contriving to look meaner and more like Myra Hindley than the last, which was itself the worst picture I had ever taken. Remarkably, and powerfully, this lifted my spirits. Some things never change. Every passport has a worse photo than the last even, mysteriously, one you lost after only six months. But everything else can change, and who knows, by 2030, the blue years could be over.

Zoe Williams is a Guardian columnist

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My blue passport has arrived and with it a crushing new sense of our Brexit nightmare - The Guardian

During Channel 5's Jeremy Vine programme, Ms Sarkar and Mr Parry clashed regarding the Government's negotiation strategy with the European Union. Ms Sarkar stated that Boris Johnson's Government needs to face serious questions regarding its competency on Brexit while Mr Parry argued the Government have prepared for a no deal scenario.

Ms Sarkar said: "Boris Johnson won an election promising to get Brexit done and saying that his deal was oven ready.

"That is a promise that he made to the electorate, it was a core part of his mandate.

"When his Government failed to deliver on that for whatever reason I think that there are some serious questions that we need to ask of their competence.

"When it comes to if these trade deals with the US and Japan will be enough to compensate for the lack of a trade deal with the EU, I am not as convinced as you."

READ MORE:EU warning: European fishing to be 'devastated' if UK chooses no deal

Mr Parry replied: "I agree but the point is how long do we go on with Mr Barnier and the Europeans just trying to pretend that Brexit hasnt happened?"

Mr Vine asked: "Isnt it the case we didnt foresee how important the fishing rights were going to be?"

Ms Sarkar responded: "I think there was a sense that it was going to become a real sticking point.

"It was one of the things that drove people to vote Leave in the first place, so I dont buy this argument that the Government did not see it coming."

Mr Parry said: "They did and they have made preparations for it.

"Michael Gove is going around telling people we are not worried, he has not got a care in the world about a no deal Brexit because they always thought it might come to that."

Earlier this month British fisherman Paul Lines told Express.co.uk that the UK faces a tough "balancing act" in trade negotiations with the European Union regarding UK fisheries following the completion of the post-Brexit transition period.

Mr Lines stated annual talks between the UK and the EU may need to be held to establish and develop the terms and conditions of fishing in Britain's waters following Brexit.

DON'T MISSSturgeon forced to accept EUs terms and common fisheries policy[INSIGHT]UK needs to push EU for same fishing deal already given to Norway[VIDEO]Underestimating the importance of fishing 'devastated' UK towns[ANALYSIS]

He said: "They shouldnt walk away, what they should do is add a deal that gives us back sovereignty of our waters and gives us back our resources.

"Then we can do some sort of access arrangement for foreign vessels to fish in our waters and pro-rota for our to fish in theirs because making a line down the sea on the second of January is not going to work.

"You are going to have to have annual talks on what the terms and conditions are going to be.

"That is a very fine balancing act, but it must not be decided by demands from Dutch and French fishermen who want to carry on as they are.

"Things have got to change, and we have got to rebuild an industry that is sustainable."

See the original post:

Remainer Ash Sarkar told Brexiteers 'don't have care in world' about no deal in fiery row - Express

Paul Lines told Express.co.uk that the UK's fishing industry has the potential to grow from around 0.5 percent of Britain's GDP to 3.5 if zonal attachment is reintroduced after the post-Brexit transition period. Mr Lines added that Britain's coastal communities will thrive off having a fishery and it may result in thousands of jobs created within the fishing sector.

Mr Lines said: "I dont think GDP has any bearing on anything because if you put zonal attachment back and we get the fish back that we should have in our water, GDP will rise to about 3.5 percent.

"3.5 percent is not to be scoffed at and also it is meaningless when you talk about GDP in terms of jobs.

"Coastal communities thrive off having a fishery, there would be thousands of jobs developed directly involved in fishing.

"The nations GDP should not deny communities thousands of jobs.

READ MORE:EU warning: European fishing to be 'devastated' if UK chooses no deal

"You cant judge anything on GDP because it has to rise and get bigger.

"Any jobs that come from Brexit are good jobs so I dont think that should have any bearing on it whatsoever."

The British fisherman also stated during his 45 years as a fisherman he has only seen the demise of the British sector.

However, he insisted followingBrexit, the UK can return to its former glory and replace their European competition as the dominant force in the industry.

Mr Lines said: "Britain stands to regain some of its former greatness.

"I have been in fishing for 45 years and all I have ever seen is the demise of fishing, I have seen half of our fleet cut up.

"I have seen days where the sea comes in and restricts what you do.

"I have seen quotas fall to the point where we have got one vessel left.

DON'T MISSSturgeon forced to accept EUs terms and common fisheries policy[INSIGHT]UK needs to push EU for same fishing deal already given to Norway[VIDEO]Underestimating the importance of fishing 'devastated' UK towns[ANALYSIS]

"What we have got left we struggle to get a living from."

He added: "We gave it all away to be part of Europe, now we want it back.

"We want to see their boats cut up, we want to see their new modern fleet gone because we want that.

"As a country we have got to have that, if we are going to survive on our own, we have got to have everything that we can bring to play to make money."

Excerpt from:

Brexit fishing victory: UK sector to explode after leaving EU as thousands of jobs created - Express

John Balls, chairman of North Devon Fishermen's Association, said the French will not take a compromise lying down and predicted widespread disruption to the movement of goods and people on both sides of the Channel. On Friday the seventh round of post-Brexit trade talks in Brussels wrapped up, with the EU's chief negotiator Michel Barnier saying he was "disappointed" with the lack of progress.

Mr Barnier claimed the UK had shown "no willingness" to compromise on key issues while the UK's negotiator David Frost admitted the talks had resulted in "little progress".

With no deal in sight four months before the Brexit transition period is due to end on December 31, Mr Balls said Britons should be prepared for a blockade of French ports, including Calais.

He said if a deal is struck it would inevitably mean a massive setback for French fishermen, who hold 84 percent of quota for cod in the Channel while the UK holds just nine percent.

But if the UK and the EU fail to find common ground and divert to World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules, fishermen across the waters would be equally annoyed by the prospect of having their access taken away, he said.

Mr Balls toldExpress.co.uk: "We've seen it before with the French, they will blockade the ports and they will hold up lorries on the UK side.

"The M20 on the approach to Dover will end up as a car park.

"It's always the French who blockade the ports.

"That will happen. That is something that the French are very good at.

READ MORE:Huge number of French admit Brexit Britain made the correct choice

"They'll blockade not just the shellfish or finfish being moved around, they will blockade and that will stop everything being moved from flowers to meat to vegetables. All perishable goods plus people as well."

He said it would not advise Britons to plan a trip via Dover or Calais in the first weeks of 2021 due to the "mad marauding fishermen" who will be keen to send a strong message of protest to the UK.

He continued: "They know they're not going to get what they want.

"If there was a compromise it still wouldn't be good enough for them.

DON'T MISSBarnier blows top at Brexit stalemate - Frost stands firm on fishing [INSIGHT]'Future of UK hangs in balance - THIS is what Boris must do' [COMMENT]Brexit LIVE: Frost leads 50 Brexiteers into fishing showdown [BLOG]

"They want to have their cake and eat it.

"They know that they hold the volume of quota for the Channel fish and they are not going to want to reduce that 84 percent which they hold.

"There will be an upset. The French fishermen always have their little day in court."

Mr Balls has held weekly meetings with officials from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) to discuss the concerns of fishermen in north Devon.

He said shellfish suppliers in the region would continue to see a high demand for their product in the European market in the years to come.

He warned of the devastating consequences for the UK fishing industry if their live and perishable goods are kept sitting in lorries at ports due to action by the French.

Mr Balls said it was the responsibility of the UK and French governments to make sure any disruption is minimal.

He added: "We've got to have that access into Europe and also Europe has to have access to us.

"We can't go down the road of having a tit-for-tat and having stupid volumes of levies put on the movement of a product. It's not going to do anyone any good.

"We know the French, Spanish and Portuguese customers want the product which they have been used to for the last 20-30 years.

"So there's a lot of support for the UK product and what the French fishermen are concerned with is basically is being pushed out of the waters where they've been fishing."

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Mad marauding French fishermen WILL blockade portswhether Brexit deal reached or not - Daily Express

COVID-19 might have been challenging for populist governments, but that hasnt stopped populist strains emerging in the run-up to New Zealands general election in October.

Populism, as commonly defined, embraces an ideology that divides society between the pure people and the corrupt elite. It contends the will of the people requires leadership promoting mono-culturalism, traditionalism and opposition to globalist plans within the deep state.

We have already seen some of these themes playing out in the current contest to govern New Zealand.

Having hired prominent Leave.EU campaigners Arron Banks and Andy Wigmore (the self-styled bad boys of Brexit), New Zealand Firsts social media strategy has begun to reflect their brash strategic advice.

Party leader and Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters has claimed New Zealand Firsts common sense is a safeguard against the woke pixie dust of the Labour and Green parties. He has cast himself as the the defender of socially conservative values like the right to believe in God.

Meanwhile, the National Party appeared to adopt a more partisan strategy after the renewed outbreak of COVID-19 in Auckland.

Leader Judith Collins said the return of the virus would come as a shock to all New Zealanders who believed what we had been told. She complained Health Minister Chris Hipkins had been reluctant to brief her own health spokesperson, Shane Reti.

Read more: When great powers fail, New Zealand and other small states must organise to protect their interests

Her deputy, Gerry Brownlee, took it further, implying Jacinda Arderns government had known more about the resurgence of the virus than it was publicly acknowledging. He said New Zealanders had been left in a position of wondering what do the health authorities know that they are not fully explaining.

Where National was taking advice is unclear, but it has in the past had direct and indirect links with conservative research and polling organisation Crosby Textor and Topham Guerin, the social media agency that helped Boris Johnson win the 2019 UK election.

To be fair to Peters, he joined other political leaders in criticising Nationals position as undermining democracy.

However, he also joined Nationals questioning of his own coalition governments decision to grant refugee status to Kurdish-Iranian journalist Behrouz Boochani, asking why he had jumped the queue. Peters was accused of race-baiting in return.

Populist lines of attack may be born out of electoral weakness and political expediency, but they are risky at a time when Arderns handling of the worst global pandemic since 1918 has boosted her national and international standing.

Moreover, the performance of populist governments in dealing with COVID-19 has been woeful, which hardly boosts the credibility of populist posturing over the pandemic in New Zealand.

Take Boris Johnsons original argument in favour of a herd immunity strategy to avoid disrupting the economy: You could take it on the chin [] and allow the disease, as it were, to move through the population.

By mid-March the World Health Organisation (WHO) was publicly questioning the absence of any clinical evidence to support this response, and the Johnson government was ordering a strict national lockdown to suppress the virus.

Read more: Pandemic letter from America: how the US handling of COVID-19 provides the starkest warning for us all

Now, senior cabinet ministers, including the prime minister, are facing possible prosecution for alleged misconduct in public office, which some say has led to over 60,000 avoidable deaths.

In the US, President Donald Trump responded to warnings about a potential pandemic from the WHO, intelligence agencies and senior officials between late 2019 and March 2020 by reassuring Americans they had nothing to worry about.

Only on March 17 did Trump publicly concede there was a highly contagious invisible enemy. But by prioritising the opening of Americas businesses and schools over a lockdown strategy, Trump undermined efforts to overcome dire shortages of PPE and ventilators in a pandemic that has now taken more than 170,000 American lives.

The inability of the Johnson and Trump governments to deal effectively with a real-world problem like COVID-19 is no coincidence.

Both seemed indifferent to WHO warnings on January 30 that the coronavirus was a public health emergency of international concern. They appeared impervious to the concerns of many health-care experts, emphasised a sense of national exceptionalism, and were painfully slow to react as the threat grew.

In contrast, the response by Arderns government placed New Zealand in the company of states like South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Germany and Vietnam that have managed to keep virus-related deaths to relatively low levels.

Read more: After Trump and Brexit: The coming of the progressive wave

What they have in common is a willingness to heed WHO advice, consult with scientific and health experts, and learn from each other.

To be sure, the Ardern government must be held accountable for its handling of the pandemic. But opposition for oppositions sake is not the answer in a major health crisis.

Politicians taking advice from those peddling misinformation and populist conspiracy theories run the risk of undermining public health messages and weakening the capacity of the country to suppress a deadly threat.

Furthermore, such tactics have already proved useless against a virus that plays only by the rules of science and objective reality.

To date, there are few signs that many New Zealand voters will be tempted by a politics-first, science-second approach during the COVID-19 crisis. Politicians who take this approach run the risk of a backlash.

Read more:

Populism from the Brexit and Trump playbooks enters the New Zealand election campaign but it's a risky strategy - The Conversation AU

This article was originally published here

Soc Sci Med. 2020 Aug 12;264:113276. doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113276. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Liew et al. (2020) recently published a paper in this journal that analyzed antidepressant prescription trends in the context of the 2016 Brexit referendum and the sociopolitical discord that followed. They present a novel finding that Leave-majority constituencies in England seemed more adversely affected by that discord than Remain-majority constituencies. I offer criticism of their findings and methodology. Using the complete set of available NHS prescription data shows that the trend the authors detect dates from at least mid-2010 and is not associated with the referendum. In terms of methodology, I critique the potential ecological fallacy and issues of false equivalence in their study design. The former stems from the inability to adequately control for demographic heterogeneity within constituencies, and the latter stems from the fact that the populations from which they draw their data are not equivalent in potentially important ways. Finally, I conclude that the key trend the authors detect seems to merely be a geographic artifact. The set of Remain-majority constituencies unintentionally oversamples the areas of England with the lowest rates of antidepressant prevalence, Greater London and the Southeast. Remain-majority constituencies outside of those two regions have roughly the same antidepressant prescription levels as Leave-majority constituencies in all of England. In itself, that is a troubling fact of social epidemiology, but Brexit is associated with it neither spatially nor temporally.

PMID:32829213 | DOI:10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113276

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Brexit and the geography of depression: A reply to Liew et al. (2020) - DocWire News

UK and European negotiators are meeting later today for yet another round of Brexit trade talks.

The two sides have to reach a deal by October 31 for it to be ratified by the end of the year, when Britain's withdrawal from the European single market comes into effect. For companies that do cross-Channel business, the looming deadline and current lack of clarity is leaving them in the dark.

The Brexit transition ends in just a few months. For importers and exporters in the European Union and the UK, the outbreak of COVID-19 has derailed negotiations and thrown a spanner in the works.

Natalie Chapman of Logistics UK says customs checks and systems will be some of the major hurdles ahead:

"Its going to be a huge challenge in order to fully leave the EU at the end of the year. Theres an awful lot of detail that still needs to be resolved."

Dan Van Der Knaap of Dutch Quality Flowers travels from the Netherlands to Britain every day to deliver flowers - a perishable product that relies on swift travel.

I do worry because I dont know whats coming," he told Euronews. "Theres nothing sure, theres nothing 100 per cent which makes me worried as well because no one knows what is coming.

The big picture is that for many logistics companies those responsible for organising the movement of large quantities of goods - the desire is to see an extension to the transition period.

For four years, UK freight and logistics companies have been concerned about Brexit. Coronavirus has now added an extra layer of concern for the companies that rely on there being the smooth movement of goods between europe and the UK.

One company in Felixstowe, England, says European hauliers are reticent to commit to contracts beyond the end of this year.

My biggest fear now," says Jon Sparrow from Jordan Freight Logistics, "is that the system will collapse at the end of the year. Nothing is ready the IT systems arent ready, customs arent ready due to COVID. My fear is hauliers, if they dont want to come here, weve got a serious problem.

The question remains whether the UK and Europe will be ready for Brexit by the end of the year.

To watch Luke Hanrahan's report, click on the media player above.

Read the original here:

Brexit trade: uncertainty looms over importers and exporters - Euronews

Exporters are turning their attention to the next looming challenge: the possibility of the United Kingdom leaving the European Unions single market and customs union on January 1st without a trade deal.

And while Covid-19 continues to dominate the news and adversely affect business, some companies are optimistic that they are prepared as best they can be for the consequences of a hard Brexit.

Silverhill Foods of Emyvale in Co Monaghan has an annual turnover of more than 30 million with 70 per cent of the companys weekly output of 80,000 ducks exported to 27 countries 40 per cent of them to Chinese restaurants in the UK. The initial impact of Brexit was two price hikes of 10 per cent each, both caused by a fall in the sterling to euro exchange rate.

But the impact on sales was virtually zero and a World Trade Organisation tariff of 7 per cent, which will apply to Silverhill goods entering the UK without a UK/EU trade deal, doesnt faze the companys head of sales, Barry Cullen.

Its not a major price difference, he says. We are a premium product. We are about twice as expensive as our competitors, so were not price sensitive.

Two years ago when the implications of Brexit were sinking in, the company leased temporary warehouse space near Manchester where 100 pallets, each holding 420 frozen ducks, could be stored, thus ensuring UK customers would continue to be supplied if ports became jammed. The warehouse option can be revived after January, if needs be.

The Silverhill breed, which is half Aylesbury, half Peking, is popular in France, Germany, Scandinavia and the Far East so as regards exporting to the rest of the world, the company long ago abandoned the UK land bridge and exports now, via Dublin Port, to Cherbourg and Rotterdam.

Silverhill duck has become a far-travelled delicacy. In Singapore, what is marketed as London Fat Duck began life as an egg in Aughnacloy, Co Tyrone. It was hatched in Slieve Bragan, Co Monaghan and reared for 42 days on farms in Monaghan and Tyrone before being processed in Emyvale all by a workforce of about 250.

Cullen believes their UK customers, who are overwhelmingly ethnic Chinese enterprises, are well used to importing from outside the EU and the prospect of WTO tariffs and regulations doesnt worry them. Theyre all fine about it, he says.

Longer term, Cullen sees Irish-based businesses turning away from the UK.

We dont want to be reliant on the UK, he says. I think it will still be our largest [single] customer after this but I think the reliance on it by Irish companies, I think theyve realised we cannot be beholden to these guys. . . Dont waste a good crisis we know this is coming so go out and find new markets.

Then theres the prospect of increasing Silverhills burgeoning trade with the Far East.

Indonesia, he says excitedly, the populations 260 million and you think its a poor country but you take the top one per cent. . . you start thinking in terms of selling pallets of duck and end up thinking of container loads.

Like Silverhill, warehousing became a solution for another major exporter, Portwest, the 180 million turnover, outdoor leisure and work clothing company which is based in Westport, Co Mayo and employs 4,500 people worldwide.

Before Brexit we had one main distribution warehouse in the UK, with 250 staff, serving every country in the EU, says Portwest managing director Harry Hughes. After Theresa May announced that the UK were leaving the customs union, we decided to open a second distribution warehouse in Poland and were ready when the first deadline passed.

The Polish warehouse has 150 staff and serves all of Portwests EU customers. The UK warehouse, with 100 fewer staff, serves UK and Portwests non-EU customers Englands loss was Polands gain.

We are now Brexit-proof from issues associated with customs and borders, says Hughes. No company will be exempt from the possible political or commercial fallout.

CombiLift is another Monaghan-based company with a global reach that has also had to react to the potential worst-case scenario in January.

The company, a hugely successful maker of forklift trucks, has grown over 22 years into a 300 million turnover enterprise employing 650 people.

Most of the staff work at an enormous assembly plant that is 11 acres under roof and sits on a 100 acre site at the edge of Monaghan town. Four production lines, now working two at a time in staggered shifts because of Covid-19 distancing restrictions, crank out customised forklifts trucks.

Their multi-directional wheel and steering system gives them extra manoeuvrability, allowing them operate in very confined spaces. This allows CombiLift to market itself as a space saver, selling customers the notion that their existing warehouse has greater capacity, if storage aisles are reconfigured and made narrower, thereby allowing for more shelving.

While the companys two largest markets, accounting for half of output, are the UK and US, it also exports to more than 80 countries throughout Europe and the Americas, as well as to Asia, Africa and Australia.

The companys single most significant response to Brexit was to obtain from Revenue the status of Authorised Economic Operator (AEO), a process that took 10 months and culminated in the issuing of a prized AEO certificate in June 2019.

What the status means in effect is that the CombiLift plant in Monaghan becomes a customs and excise frontline, rather than the frontline being at the port through which exports flow. On a day-to-day basis, this means the plant operates like a bonded warehouse so when finished products or spare parts reach a port, they pass through the green channel, without delay and unchecked.

Clearly, trust is a key ingredient.

Martin McVicar, managing director, and company cofounder with Robert Moffet, explains: We have controls in place. Doors to where spare parts are held are fob activated so only known employees can get in or out. Security procedures, access and control is very much insisted upon [by customs].

You become a trusted partner with Revenue and as long as you do everything properly, there is no reason for them to check what you do.

That said, the plant can be subject to inspection at any time and the perimeter of the site is laser beam protected. CCTV is everywhere.

CombiLift has an articulated truck or container leaving the Monaghan plant every hour of every day. The company also takes in 40 truck-loads of imported parts, the companys manufacturing raw materials.

By having AEO status, were getting our [imported] goods cleared much faster from any market, says McVicar, adding that import processing time at Dublin Port has improved from two to three days to mere hours.

Whatever way Brexit pans out in January, CombiLift will be able to deliver spare parts to UK customers overnight.

So McVicar hasnt given up on the UK.

Whatever happens in Brexit is not going to stop us investing there, for multiple reasons, he says. The UK clients are still going to need forklift trucks to move goods around. In fact, their demand for warehousing space is going to be at a higher premium because the minute a company comes out of that European block, theyll want to want to make sure theyve goods on their island.

UK companies are going to be stocking higher levels of components and food to deal with border scenarios and where our products come into value is, even though we make forklift trucks, we are actually in the business of selling warehouse space. We sell forklift trucks that save warehouse space and as the demand for warehousing increases, theres more demand for our product.

So even post-Brexit, whether theres no deal or there is a deal, were still going to invest in the UK.

More here:

How three Irish exporters are facing the prospect of a hard Brexit - The Irish Times

The UK government has denied reports that it is to drop a recently introduced levy on global technology companies such as Facebook, Google and Amazon due to fears the so-called Facebook tax could jeopardise a post-Brexit trade deal.

The Treasury said on Sunday it would drop the digital services tax when there was a global agreement on how to tax big multinational tech firms, which pay very little tax in the UK and other countries where they operate.

The government poured cold water on a report in the Mail on Sunday that Rishi Sunak was preparing to ditch the tax following pressure from US companies and politicians in order to win a favourable trade deal.

A Treasury spokesperson said: Weve been clear its a temporary tax that will be removed once an appropriate global solution is in place and we continue to work with our international partners to reach that goal.

Recently Sunak wrote to the US Treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, to demand that big tech firms pay more tax to help fund the recovery from the coronavirus crisis.

In a joint letter with the finance ministers of France, Italy and Spain, Sunak said the likes of Google, Amazon and Facebook had benefited from the pandemic and had become more powerful and more profitable and needed to to pay their fair share of tax.

The current Covid-19 crisis has confirmed the need to deliver a fair and consistent allocation of profit made by multinationals operating without or with little physical taxable presence, the letter, obtained by the BBC, said.

The US trade representative, Robert Lighthizer, told Congress the US had abandoned efforts to find a multilateral solution to taxing tech firms in talks overseen by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. Lighthizer said other nations had ganged up to screw America.

The 2% levy on the British revenues of search engines, social media services and online marketplaces, first announced in the 2018 budget, was an attempt to keep some of the economic value created by technology companies in the country.

Some of the worlds biggest companies pay relatively little UK tax, because the digital services they offer, such as advertising and fees for connecting buyers to sellers, technically take place offshore. That allows them to keep their tax burden low in major economies, and book the majority of their revenues in low-tax environments such as Ireland and Luxembourg.

Read the original:

Treasury denies it plans to drop 'Facebook tax' in favour of trade deal - The Guardian

With only a number of weeks left for a trade deal to be negotiated, Brexit talks have resumed between the UK and EU.

Although Britain left the EU on January 31 of this year, there is a transition period of 11 months. This transition period ends on December 31 and,if a deal has not been secured by then, the UK will have to trade with the EU on the terms of the World Trade Organisation.

As the deadline approaches with the potential impacts on Ireland looming, the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine has recently published information on exporting to Britain after Brexit.

AgriLandhas broken down the key points of the publication.

Most consignments of animals, animal products and products of non-animal origin from non-EU countries must come through a Border Control Post (BCP), which was previously known as a Border Inspection Post (BIP).

There are three BCPs designated for these categories of animals and goods in Ireland: Dublin Port; Dublin Airport; and Shannon Airport.

BCPs must know about consignments in advance and, if not, there may be an added fee or a delay in the checks. It must also be ensured that the BCP being used is designated to check the shipments commodity.

As an added note, animals and animal products crossing the UK land-bridge will be subject to veterinary controls at the point of re-entry into the EU.

The UK has indicated that it does not intend to impose export certification requirements for animal products for at least the first six months after leaving the EU without a deal.

However, the Department of Agriculture has warned that business operators should be aware that this arrangement could change at any time.

The UK authorities have indicated that they will require pre-notification notice to the Food Standards Agency but, it is not clear as of yet what the pre-notification will involve.

Ahead of the UK officially leaving the EU, registered exporters may apply for phytosanitary certification of consignments of plant and plant produce to the UK.

The Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine requires a minimum of 14 days notice prior to export to enable inspectors to arrange an inspectionand allow for any laboratory testing that may be required to be completed.

RELATED STORIES

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Brexit: An overview of exporting to Britain after it leaves the EU - Agriland

Joe Biden is on course to win the race for the White House on November 3, with many leading polls putting the former vice-president ahead of his Republican rival Donald Trump.The current US President had previously flirted with the idea of including the NHS in any free trade deal however, Mr Trump was quickly shut down by the Westminster Government.

According to Inderjeet Parmar, Professor of International Politics at the City University London, Mr Biden would be under greater pressure from left-wing Democrats and pharmaceutical giants to include healthcare in any future agreement.

Professor Parmar suggested Mr Bidens running mate - California Senator Kamala Harris - would bring a renewed focus of health and the environment to Brexit talks

The vice-president nominee had previously backed plans by left-wing Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders for state-funded healthcare.

Mr Sanders, who dropped out of the Democratic race in April, has constantly called for a Medicare for All plan to tackle private firms and nationalise the health insurance industry.

Professor Parmar toldExpress.co.uk: Kamala Harris in terms of her politics and approach to her international relations would reinforce tendencies you would find in Biden administration.

She would reinforce the idea that there ought to be respect for environmental, health and safety standards within any agreement, which I think would be a change of emphasis from the current administration."

When asked whether Ms Harris endorsement of public healthcare would have an effect on the NHS, Professor Parmar added: I think it would, because there would be a bit more pressure from the progressive left.

A - for something approaching Medicare for All although that actually is not actually the official policy of either Harris or Biden, but certainly a public option which is a little step towards a public healthcare provision.

I think there will be greater sympathy or empathy for protecting the NHS, but I think at the same time the power of the pharmaceutical companies and the hospitals, I think is still very great, so the lobbying of the Biden Presidency would be very intense as well.

So I think it would be quite a tough position and Britain would have to be ready to stick to its guns on that.

The real possibility of the NHS being on the table in talks was put forward by Mr Trump in June 2019.

READ MORE:Brexit fisheries row as EU increased fish caught in UK waters

The US President said: When you're dealing in trade, everything is on the table."

The Prime Minister has constantly said the NHS would not form any part of negotiations and firmly rejected Mr Trumps stance when questioned in parliament in July last year.

In the Commons, he said: Under no circumstances would we agree to any deal, any free trade deal that put the NHS on the table. It is not for sale.

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Following a continued public backlash, during his last visit to the UK in December 2019 to mark the 70th anniversary of NATO, Mr Trump backtracked on his comments and insisted he would not accept the NHS on silver platter.

Mr Trump said: "I don't even know where that rumour started. We have absolutely nothing to do with it.

If you handed it to us on a silver platter, we want nothing to do with it."

The US election will take place on Tuesday, November 3.

Continue reading here:

Brexit warning: Boris will need to stick to his guns amid intense Joe Biden NHS plot - Daily Express

PUBLISHED: 15:36 24 August 2020 | UPDATED: 15:36 24 August 2020

Adrian Zorzut

A general view of the Humber Bridge, Hull; Anna Gowthorpe

PA Archive/PA Images

Several sites across Hull have been identified to hold Britains fifth Brexit lorry park to deal with congestion caused by the UKs exit from the EU.

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Almost four years after its creation The New European goes from strength to strength across print and online, offering a pro-European perspective on Brexit and reporting on the political response to the coronavirus outbreak, climate change and international politics. But we can only continue to grow with your support.

According to Hull Live, an area 17 acres large on Humberside is being allocated out by ministers as an inland port and would receive funding from the 500 million set aside to boost Britains border infrastructure after Brexit.

Although the official site is yet to be named publicly, there are rumours it could be built in the Humber Bridge car park, which is currently being used as a drive-in coronavirus testing station.

This comes as four sites in Kent have been mapped out to host lorry parks aimed at easing traffic travelling through Dover port.

MORE: #FarageGarage trends on Twitter after plans revealed for secret Brexit lorry park in Kent

In a letter, the paymaster general Penny Mordaunt said: Intense engagement is now underway with ports and we are beginning to speak to local authorities about potential inland sites.

I would like to emphasise that final decisions on inland sites will not be made until we have established the extent of new infrastructure capacity at ports.

An assessment by the Humber Local Resilience Forum two years ago into the regional impacts of Brexit found that roads and ports would be overwhelmed by congestion as a result of a Brexit, regardless of a deal being struck or not, and identified two areas for lorry holding centres.

In July, Hull and Goole Port Health Authority expressed dismay at the governments lack preparedness for Brexit while one Labour councillor described it as a shambles.

Almost all of the 150 million kilos of food imported through the Humber ports every year destined for wholesalers and retailers across the UK come from the EU.

Labours Brexit spokesperson Rachel Reeves said the creation of a vast emergency lorry park in Kent to hold up to 10,000 vehicles waiting to travel to Europe would be bad news for British businesses who have already gone through a terrible time.

Reeves said: The prime minister said just a couple of months ago that a trade deal would be secured by the end of July. Well we are now at the end of July, we dont have a trade deal, all we have is a blueprint for a giant lorry park in the middle of Kent.

She warned that businesses were headed for serious frictions over trade with our nearest neighbours.

It is bad news for the British businesses who have already gone through a terrible time in the last few months, she added.

Almost four years after its creation The New European goes from strength to strength across print and online, offering a pro-European perspective on Brexit and reporting on the political response to the coronavirus outbreak, climate change and international politics. But we can only rebalance the right wing extremes of much of the UK national press with your support. If you value what we are doing, you can help us by making a contribution to the cost of our journalism.

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Site in Hull being considered for new Brexit 'lorry park' - The New European

Pound (GBP) Tumbles on Brexit and Unemployment Concerns

The Pound (GBP) nosedived at the end of last weeks session amidst renewed Brexit jitters. Sterling slipped against the Euro and the Pound US Dollar exchange rate plunged below $1.31.

This followed the conclusion of the latest round of UK-EU Brexit talks on Friday, with the EUs chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, warning that the continued deadlock makes a post-Brexit trade deal unlikely.

Added to this, concerns rose over employment in the UK as the latest PMI figures highlighted the growing pace of job cuts, despite business activity in August expanding at its fastest pace in seven years.

In the absence of any notable economic releases, the Pound may struggle for direction this week, particularly if the focus remains on Brexit.

The Euro (EUR) also found itself on the defensive on Friday, following the publication of the Eurozones own PMI releases.

Investors shunned the single currency as Augusts preliminary figures printed well below expectations and indicated the Eurozones economic recovery may have stalled amid Europes coronavirus resurgence.

Looking ahead, the Euro could face additional pressure through the coming week, should Europes coronavirus situation continue to deteriorate.

The US Dollar (USD) was the top performer at the end of last weeks session as USD demand rose in response to some positive US data releases. Added to this, weakness in GBP and the Euro sent the Pound US Dollar exchange rate plummeting, while EUR/USD dropped below $1.18.

US PMI figures and existing home sales both printed above expectations on Friday, allowing the Greenback to gather strength and close the week on a high.

Coming up this week, we may see the US Dollar extend this bullish momentum if worries over global growth see investors continue to favour the safe-haven currency.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) rallied on Friday, being carried higher on the back of some impressive domestic retail sales figures.

Sales growth soared by a record 23.7% in July as more lockdown restrictions were eased, which cheered CAD investors on hopes this points to a strong rebound in the economy in the third quarter.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded flatly during todays Asian session, with concerns over the recent resurgence in global coronavirus cases offset by hopes for blood transfusion treatments in the US.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) opens this week on the back foot, edging lower in early trade this morning after New Zealands latest retail sales figures revealed a larger-than-expected contraction of sales in the second quarter.

Excerpt from:

GBP/USD Exchange Rate Nosedives as EU Warns Brexit Deal 'Unlikely': Today's Currency News and Forecast - TorFX News - TorFX News

(Pixabay)

Mark this one down under you dont say!. The UKs Digital Services Tax, introduced back in April to get tough on the likes of Amazon, may be scrapped in the face of anger from the White House at a time when Brexit trade deals are on the table.

According to reports over the weekend, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak wants to drop the tax, based on 2% of national revenues generated by large digital companies,which is increasingly seen in Westminster as more trouble than its worth.

The official line from the Treasury in response to these reports has been mealy-mouthed:

Weve been clear its a temporary tax that will be removed once an appropriate global solution is in place and we continue to work with our international partners to reach that goal.

Given that the US walked away from those multi-national negotiations in June, such a global solution is a long way away and the UK - and others - will have to make decisions about their intentions far sooner than a viable face-saving international option is on offer.

As weve said all along, the UKs posturing over clamping down on tax avoidance by major digital services providers was unlikely to survive for a number of reasons. It looks good politically to be issuing demands to largely US companies over paying - or not paying - their fair share of taxes, but in practical terms, enforcing collection isnt as simple as the legislators rhetoric makes it sound.

The UK took the decision to impose its own national taxation based on local revenues after a collective attempt by the European Union (EU), led by France, crashed and burned. In common with a number of other states, the UK set its own rate - and in common with other states, attracted anger from US politicians who saw this as an attack on American firms operating in the EU.

That would be the case under any US administration, but the current government in Washington was absolutely the worst possible one to pick such a fight with. With Donald Trump running on a MAGA ticket to try to secure re-election as President, foreign efforts to steal tax revenue from American coffers was only ever going to have one result. France, which is also going its own way, has been threatened with a cheese and wine war; with the UK, theres an even bigger stick with which to beat - Brexit.

With a no deal Brexit now looking increasingly likely, the UKs need to strike a trade deal with Washington is all the more critical and the Digital Services Tax is frankly just in the way. Chlorinated chicken and hormone-pumped beef may still be problems to be dealt with, but quietly dropping the tax plans is a concession that can be easily done. A post-Brexit Britain also wants to be able to attract US tech firms to increase their presence in the UK, necessitating moves to make it more attractive rather than less to expand operations there.

Theres also another complicating factor - COVID-19. The pandemic and the resulting spend, spend, spend response from the UK Treasury to try to limit the damage to the economy has left the country with 2 trillion of debt - and counting. Against that, the 500 million that the Digital Services Tax was (very) optimistically predicted to generate per annum looks like a drop in the ocean.

Apart from the expediency of quietly stepping away from the new tax, theres another political consideration to be factored in - how voters are likely to react to their digital services becoming more expensive.

Amazon, true to form, has announced that it will be passing on additional costs to its customers on the ground. So, on the one hand, politicos can get positive headlines for clamping down on tax avoidance. On the other hand, they can get less positive headlines as a result of their constituents having to pay more for their Amazon deliveries.

Any thesis that Amazon might be shamed into absorbing the tax liability has rapidly been exposed as the political naivety it always was. The firm has told businesses in the UK that it will be raising fees by two percent from September, a deadline that may go some way to explain the scuttlebutt this weekend about dropping the tax plans. The firm says:

While the legislation was being passed, and as we continued our discussions with the government to encourage them to take an approach that would not impact our selling partners, we absorbed this increase. Now the legislation has passed, we will be increasing referral fees, fulfilment by Amazon fees, monthly storage fees and multi-channel fulfilment fees by 2 per cent to reflect this additional cost.

Some others have taken a more conciliatory stance so far, most notably eBay, which has written to its sellers in the UK to promise that there will be no new costs passed on:

eBay is one of the marketplaces which will have to pay the new tax and a lot of you have asked whether we at eBay will be passing on this tax to our sellers in the form of new fees.We wanted to reassure you that we wont do that, so you will not be charged additional new fees as a result of this tax.

But theres no sign that the likes of Facebook, Google or other major digital services providers are set to take a similar stance

Basic lesson - if youre going to posture and pick fights with US tech firms for the benefit of some domestic good PR, make sure youre (a) willing and (b) able to follow through. And try not to do it when you desperately need to strike a deal with the US government

Read the rest here:

Can the UK's 'Amazon tax' survive Brexit expediency, MAGA electioneering and threats to bump up costs to consumers? - Diginomica

In this fine review of an important new book, Ireland and the EU Post Brexit by Ray Bassett, retired Irish civil servant Michael Clarke writes that the key Irish decision was the refusal to work with the UK on border issues and to put Irelands future in the hands of the Brussels institutions, the very people who inflicted so much damage on the Republic and its people during the bailout. It was a misjudgement of epic proportions.

Ray Bassetts book Ireland and the EU PostBrexit is a shot in thearm for anyone in Ireland who is concerned about the direction of our European policy, but will also be welcomed in theUK, which bore the brunt of some extraordinarily ignorantand vitriolic comment from Irish sources during and after the Brexit referendum. If such commentary had been made in reverse about Ireland by British commentators, it would, as Bassett points out, have been condemned in Ireland as racist. Bassetts book demonstrates that there are many Irish people who are deeply concerned about our direction of travel as far as the EU is concerned but reminds us that when the people of Ireland twice declined to approve EU treaties their decisions were rejected by the Governments of the day. The EU and democracy dontgo hand in hand.

One of the most extraordinary features of Irelands membership of the EU is the amnesia of the establishment today about the way the Republicwas treated by the European Commission and the European Central Bank during the Great Recession in contrast to the assistance provided by the Irish diaspora, which Bassett describes in passages that are very moving. UK readers of the book will note the assistance provided by Mark Carney, a member of the diaspora, when he was Governor of the Bank of Canada. UKreaders might well ask themselves how a country with a history of fighting for its freedom rolled over, like a puppy, in the face of intimidation, bullying and downright aggression from the EU and from its institutions. The reason is this: the Irish political class and the Irish establishment generally cannot admit to some very bad policy decisions on Europe, in particular the decision to join the euro, the worst policy decision made by the Irish State since 1922, as to do so would invalidate their whole lives and careers.

It took great courage on the part of Ray Bassett to write this book as the Republic is effectively a one-partystate without concentration camps (people are sent to a very nasty purdah instead). We have never had a real change of government since 1922. Every head of government has been a conservative. That does not make for healthy politics.

Part I covers the background and reason for the book and why the author, a former Irish ambassador, felt he had to step out of the shadows to write it. That is never an easy thing for a retired civil servant todo and is an exceptionally difficult thing to do in a state that is very intolerant of criticism in certain areas of public policy. As Basset points out, when he began writing for Irelands (Sunday) Business Post, efforts were made behind the scenes by well-known figures to prevent his articles being published because he opposed Government policy on the EU. That might strike a British reader as outrageous but it is par for the course here. I was surprised and delighted that he managed to get anything published but he did, and slowly but surely some of the arguments he made were picked up by other journalists. I should mention here that one of the benefits of Brexit (for a seriously weakened culture of democracy here) was that the debate for and against the EU raged in the British media, which are all consumed here. Indeed, for people here under the age of perhaps forty or fifty, the Brexit debate was the first time they had ever been exposed to any level of meaningful and sustained debate about the pros and cons of EU membership. It is not uncommon to meet people under a certain age in the Republic who have never heard a euro-critical word in their lives. Literally, never. No wonder the establishment reaction was so extreme.

Part I also covers the infamous bailout, the Northern Ireland peace process, and the British-Irish relationship (our most important by far). The latter two were sacrificed to the euro-philia of the Irish elite. The latter had to decide after the Brexit referendum in the UK where its best interests lay. It opted for Brussels without any debate, any green paper, any white paper, all in flagrant disregard of our obligations to the peace process and the British-Irish relationship as set out in the Good Friday Agreement. The key decision was the refusal to work with the UK on border issues (until very late in the day) and to put our future in the hands of the Brussels institutions, the very people who inflicted so much damage on the Republic and its people during the bailout. It was a misjudgement of epic proportions.

Part II covers the Republics attitude to European integration (going back to the 1950s); how that position changed, particularly after the UK decided to join the then EEC in the 1960s; our business model, including our low rate of corporation tax and other dodgy practices in the area of taxation; Ireland and the euro, the most spectacular of own goals and, like our response to Brexit, embraced without a green paper or a white paper or, as far as I can recall, even an inter departmental committee; the democratic deficit represented by the EU (which UK readers dont need to be reminded of); and Ireland and ever closer union.

Part III begins with a subject close to my heart, namely the EU propaganda machine in Ireland, something of which the Irish public is largely unaware. This is one of the most important chapters in the book and it is a subject that Irish academics need to focus on, razor-like, in the interest of Irish democracy. There is of course a powerful pro-EU lobby in Britain also, which put up a hell of a fight to reverse Brexit (a fight that will, I suspect, resume if Labour wins the next British general election) but in a large society like the UK it is not possible for a propaganda machine like Brussels to have the same influence there as it has in Ireland. The author sets out his conclusions in the last chapter of Part IV, which stress the importance of Ireland breaking free from group think and taking a long hard look at our European policy. It is a sad commentary on the health of Irish democracy that such a call should be necessary after the crisis of 2008 and how we were treated by Brussels at that time, but it is.

The Epilogue is a brilliant portrayal of Irelands Foreign Ministry as I remember it. The cosmopolitan staff, the disdain for the people, the contempt for the results of referenda and the professed belief that what is good for Europe is good for Ireland are in reality a reflection of a deep level of insecurity. Establishment types act as if they know it all, but in reality they run scared of the least thing. Their whole lives, their whole sense of self-worth, is tied up with staying in with the right people. Their efforts to portray themselves as something they are not is by times embarrassing, by times amusing and by times infuriating. It is, at all times, however, damaging for the country. Diplomats in other countries are not, in any way, in awe of the EU as many of our diplomats, and those of some other smaller Member States, appear to be.

Ireland and the EU Post Brexit is a very good and important book and a thumping good read. I am enormously pleased that Bassett has written it and I again salute his courage in doing so. I hope he updates it to take account of the coronavirus and how it has caused the Member States of the EU to realize, after a long period of denial, that their first obligations are to their own state and their own people. I suspect the EU will never be the same again.

Michael Clarke is a former civil servant in Irelands Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment.

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Ireland and the EU Post Brexit - Briefings For Britain - Briefings For Brexit

Can UK wife of an Irish man staylonger than 90 days on a visit?

I am an Irish citizen, resident in the UK with a second home in France. Will my British wife be limited to a three-month stay in any six-month period if she accompanies me to France or will she be able to benefit from the more flexible 183 day per year limit, as I do? If so what will we need to show at passport control?

In practical terms, unfortunately yes she will be limited to no more than a three-month stay, though this does not apply until after the end of the transition period.

As you say, EU citizens can come and go in other EU states, especially one like France which is relaxed about formalities for EU citizens there is no requirement to register after three months, as some countries have, for example. Technically, free movement is only for three months but it can go on longer if someone is working or if they are not working but are able to support themselves and have healthcare cover (typically this has meant using an Ehic, which can be used as long as the stay is still considered temporary and does not amount to residency).

France-UK travel: how quarantine would affect insurance

The 183-day limit that you refer to is because if you spend more than half of the year in France you could be considered to have become a French resident.In the case of non-EU citizens married to an EU citizen, as in the case of your wife, they have the right to accompany EU citizens during stays but before three months elapses they would be expected to apply for a five-yearcarte de sjour from the prefecture in order to stay for more than three months.

This would be the free carte de sjour de membre de la famille dun citoyen de lunion. It requires showing the passport of the EU citizen spouse, proof of where you live, proof of the family link (eg. marriage certificate), and proof that the EU citizen is living in France legally ie. evidence of their income and healthcare cover or work contract etc.

As such a process is more appropriate to moving to France for the long term, it would be best to only plan trips of up to three months maximum.These changes would apply after the transition period, currently set to finish at the end of 2020.

In our comprehensive help guide, you'll find information on what Brexit means for British residents, second homeowners and visitors in France - now and after December 31, 2020. Recentlyupdated following on from the delay of the new residence card website for Britons (now set to launch in October), this 64-page handbook outlines what you need to do as Britain leaves the EU. We answer your questions onwhether second homeowners can spend more than 90 days in France after Brexit, would you be better covered for healthcare by becoming French, future guidance on pet vaccinations and more. Buy the guide here.

More questions from theBrexit helpguide:

Can I still move freely in Schengen Zone?

Will French blue badges still be valid in UK?

Will inheritance law be affected?

Will the Erasmus study scheme continue for Britons?

Will I need a new passport?

Will Britons need visas to visit France?

See the article here:

Brexit: Can UK wife of Irish man stay 90+ days in France? - The Connexion

The GBP/USD currency pair, which expresses the value of the British pound sterling in terms of the U.S. dollar, has pushed higher since the latter half of July this year. Yet in recent weeks, GBP has struggled to sustain its advance against USD. The chart below uses weekly candlesticks to illustrate GBP/USD price action from around 2017 through to present.

(Source: Trading View.)

The U.S. dollar has sold off against various currencies, including perhaps most notably the euro, as markets have become less convinced of the world reserve currency's entitlement to a premium. The surprises which occurred in the first half of this year, which arose due to the COVID-19 crisis, have been addressed through significant fiscal and monetary policy interventions. Governments continue to intervene, yet the demand for USD has seemed to dry up relative to the first half of the year. The U.S. Federal Reserve's FX swap lines have fallen substantially in demand, from a peak of around $450 billion (from foreign central banks) in May, down to approximately $100 billion.

USD is viewed as a safe haven and often rallies during market turmoil. With equities now back at all-time highs, risk sentiment is positive and interest rates are now extremely low (the U.S. short-term rate has been crushed this year, falling to the zero lower bound of 0.00-0.25%). Therefore, there is little safe-haven demand for USD, and very little appeal to buy USD on the basis of any interest-rate spread. Liquidity remains high and yet USD still remains overvalued on the basis of its international purchasing power.

This overvaluation has been made worse this year, as the United States' terms of trade (the ratio between its export and import prices) has worsened (importantly more than major European nations such as Germany). The chart below shows the collapse in the U.S.'s terms of trade this year, while Germany (in this case perhaps serving as a proxy for the euro) has had a better year thus far (as at the end of Q2 2020).

(Source: Trading Economics.)

A country's terms of trade is one factor, but a factor with greater overall importance is purchasing power parity (the relative purchasing power of a currency internationally). As presented in a recent article of mine, EUR/GBP seems to offer further upside on the basis of a PPP model which uses OECD data. Below, I construct a simple PPP model (the "step-function" red line, which is up-to-date through 2019) using the same OECD data set, alongside GBP/USD prices (the black line). GBP/USD is still technically undervalued.

(Data sourced from OECD and Investing.com.)

Rather nicely, the 2008/09 Great Recession saw the GBP/USD significantly through to the PPP model's implied fair value. In other words, prior to this crisis, it would seem that (on the basis of international trade and relative purchasing power) GBP was already significantly overvalued. The run on USD, driven in great part by safe-haven flows, crushed GBP/USD with rapidity. GBP then rebounded but remained fairly range-bound between 1.40 to 1.70 through to the announcement of Brexit, which has meant that GBP has been trading at a discount ever since.

This long-term pessimism means that one day, GBP/USD could enjoy significant upside, at least through to 1.40 (relative to the current market price of around 1.30), and perhaps through to the previous range of around 1.40 to 1.70. The running premium (discount) rate (comparing the prevailing market price to the PPP-inspired fair value estimate) is shown below (using the same data as used in the chart above).

However, risks remain. As I noted in my article covering EUR/GBP, the deadline for a trade deal between the U.K. and the EU is the end of the year. Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Boris Johnson did not exploit the opportunity to extend the deadline by the end of June 2020, and therefore the U.K. now faces the very real possibility of crashing out of Europe's free trade area into 2021. This was arguably imprudent of Johnson, considering that the country also currently faces an unprecedented pandemic-driven economic crisis. The chips will fall as they may, but one would think that this risk will weigh on GBP. Until at least the end of 2020, we should look at any economic data this year (from the United Kingdom, and perhaps indeed from any country) with skepticism.

Taking a broad perspective, it does not make sense for GBP to trade at a premium to USD. Therefore, we should not be surprised that it trades at a discount (if not "fair value"). GBP has traded in a volatile fashion this year, much like a commodity currency, and this makes sense given that GBP FX liquidity has dropped significantly. The U.K. is now effectively "on its own" following Brexit, and no longer enjoys the security of being part of the European Union. Whether or not Brexit was a good decision for the country is debatable, but it is arguably quite clear that it does not place the British economy in an enviable position in the near term.

The euro is rising against both USD and GBP for EUR-specific reasons: as noted in my EUR/GBP article, given the pandemic and joint issuance of sovereign debt, there is potential for higher European bond yields and reduced E.U. break-up risk. Furthermore, USD seems to continue to hold a premium over certain currencies including the euro. Therefore, there is still further room for the euro to ascend versus USD, while GBP-specific risks continue to hold given Brexit.

Until year-end, I believe that EUR/USD could continue to remain firm, yet we have to ask ourselves why USD has been falling. It has held a premium over EUR and other currencies, while safe-haven demand (in the FX space) has dried up, and the U.S. economy has not been a net-beneficiary of net movements in import and export prices. Yet while the U.K. has likely benefited in part by the pick-up in global risk sentiment, the economy is smaller than the United States's economy, and immediate Brexit risks hardly make GBP an attractive alternative to USD (especially given GBP's reduced liquidity, which is a sign of reduced international trade and investor demand).

Note that should the U.K. drop out of the EU without a formal trade deal in place, this could cause significant supply chain issues as trade between the U.K. and other countries could suffer certain frictions that it has not heretofore (including tariffs) should the U.K. fall back on standard WTO trade terms. GBP is likely to remain subdued because of this; buyers are likely to be less interested (on average) in establishing significant and/or long-term relationships with U.K. exporters until greater certainty is achieved, which essentially drops the appeal of the potential arbitrage in the GBP-USD discount (with respect to our PPP model).

I continue to believe that GBP could surge to the upside in the long-term future, perhaps even at some point in 2021, especially if a trade deal can be achieved with the EU (even if it has to occur past the 2020 year-end deadline). But for now, GBP does not appear to be an attractive alternative to USD, and I believe GBP (independent of risk sentiment) deserves to trade at a discount until greater certainty and longevity can be achieved and assured. Since the Bank of England's short-term rate is just +10 basis points, effectively lower than the U.S. Federal Reserve's target-rate midpoint of +12.5 basis points, there is also zero carry-trade appeal in GBP/USD.

Speculators (based on the CFTC's weekly report of U.S. futures markets) also seem to be neutral on GBP. With little reason for late-2020 optimism, at least at this current juncture, I believe the next most appropriate direction for speculators will be to bet against the currency through year-end. GBP is worth monitoring, but I continue to believe downside pressure is more likely to be found in the near term (at least to the 1.27 handle).

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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GBP/USD Struggles To Break Higher As Brexit Risks Remain, While USD Appears Safer - Seeking Alpha

Where National was taking advice is unclear, but it has in the past had direct and indirect links with conservative research and polling organisation Crosby Textor and Topham Guerin, the social media agency that helped Boris Johnson win the 2019 UK election.

To be fair to Peters, he joined other political leaders in criticising National's position as "undermining democracy".

However, he also joined National's questioning of his own coalition government's decision to grant refugee status to Kurdish-Iranian journalist Behrouz Boochani, asking why he had "jumped the queue". Peters was accused of "race-baiting" in return.

Populist lines of attack may be born out of electoral weakness and political expediency, but they are risky at a time when Ardern's handling of the worst global pandemic since 1918 has boosted her national and international standing.

Moreover, the performance of populist governments in dealing with COVID-19 has been woeful, which hardly boosts the credibility of populist posturing over the pandemic in New Zealand.

Take Boris Johnson's original argument in favour of a "herd immunity" strategy to avoid disrupting the economy: "You could take it on the chin [...] and allow the disease, as it were, to move through the population."

By mid-March the World Health Organisation (WHO) was publicly questioning the absence of any clinical evidence to support this response, and the Johnson government was ordering a strict national lockdown to suppress the virus.

Now, senior cabinet ministers, including the prime minister, are facing possible prosecution for alleged misconduct in public office, which some say has led to over 60,000 avoidable deaths.

Read the rest here:

Opinion: Populism from Brexit and Trump enters New Zealand election, but it's a risky strategy - Newshub

Clifden is known as the capital of Connemara, a famous beauty spot on the Wild Atlantic Way that would have been holding what is the highlight of its summer season this weekend, its famous Connemara Pony Show.

The surrounding area is a place when politicians and the powerful come at this time of year to get away from it all.

But a dinner of the Oireachtas Golf Society in the Station House Hotel on Wednesday night has convulsed the Irish political system, with the crisis now spreading to the heart of EU decision making in Brussels.

After the EU Commissioner, Phil Hogan, apologised for his attendance, the Taoiseach and Tnaiste took a major decision to escalate the issue on Saturday night by releasing a joint statement urging him to "consider his position."

This gave way to strong speculation that he would have little choice but to step down today.

But Commissioner Hogan was digging his heels in.

He issued a statement offering a "fulsome apology" but when I spoke to his spokesperson at lunchtime they insisted he is not going anywhere.

"No, he is not resigning," the spokesperson said adamantly.

He appeared to have the backing of Commission President, Ursula Von der Leyen, according to sources that were quoted elsewhere.

Analysis of the situation from Brussels sources suggested that the Commission would not want to allow domestic politics to override it, and that it could not allow itself to be lead by the views of nation state governments about the suitability or otherwise of a member of the Commission.

"The Commission protects itself first," said one.

Read More:EU Commissioner Phil Hogan not resigning - spokespersonHotels find 'challenges' in Govt communications - IHF

It was also pointed out that Mr Hogan has one of the most powerful jobs in Brussels - at the centre of Brexit talks that are at a sensitive stage and crucial to Ireland's interests.

His departure would cause a big headache for Ms Von der Leyen.

But just after 4pm the Commission issued a statement which suggested that Ms Von der Leyen, who is a qualified doctor, was taking the situation very seriously.

She had asked Mr Hogan to provide "a full report with details of the event."

The statement said: "It is important that facts are established in detail to carefully assess any situation."

The statement once again escalated the situation, suggesting that if there are any holes in the story about his location in Kilkenny ahead of his travels to Galway, then he would be asked to resign.

Such a scenario would avoid a stand-off situation between the President of the Commission and a national government, something neither would want.

It would also be a relief to members of government here who believe it would be politically damaging for both Michel Martin and Leo Varadkar if they had marched to the top of the hill on this with no way back down.

The public opprobrium if Mr Hogan is to stay on in office would be almost unbearable for this coalition to take. And there would have been massive unrest in both parties if the leaders escalated it with no plan.

One Minister has suggested this afternoon that if the coalition is to move on from this episode, as it so desperately needs to, it cannot until a line is drawn under this episode.

There will be many people in government buildings and Brussels anxiously awaiting his next move.

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Clifden golf event at the nexus of Covid-19 and Brexit - RTE.ie