By Nicholas Kitonyi - February 14, 2013 | Tickers: LBTYA, NWSA, VMED | 0 Comments

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Liberty Global (NASDAQ: LBTYA) must be crossing its fingers hoping that its proposition to acquire Virgin Media (NASDAQ: VMED) goes through. Virgin Media confirmed on Tuesday, Feb. 5, that it was indeed in talks with Liberty Global for a possible deal following a spell of media speculation. John Malones Liberty Global seeks to tap into the European market, currently dominated by Rupert Murdochs News Corp (NASDAQ: NWS).

News Corp is the owner of British Sky Broadcasting, the U.Ks largest media company. Virgin Media is based in the U.K, and the U.K is Europes biggest market for video streaming and services. The acquisition of Virgin Media will give John Malone the opportunity to compete against Murdoch in Europe.

The Deal

According to reports on Feb. 5, Liberty is expected to table a bid of $20 billion for the U.K.-based company, which operates under Richard Bransons brand, Virgin. However, the British billionaire is believed to own less than 3 percent in Virgin Media. The $20 billion (12.7 billion) valuation would mean a stock price of $42 per share. However, the latest reports indicate that the deal could be valued at about $47.87 per share, or a 24 percent premium on Feb. 4's closing price.

Virgin Media debt stood at 5.7 billion just before the announcement of a possible deal. Based on the initial speculation, this would mean that Virgin Medias equity is valued at about 7 billion. However, if the price of $47.87 as indicated in the follow-up reports happens to be final, Virgin Medias equity would be valued at just under 8 billion. Liberty Global and Virgin Media jointly issued a press release indicated a price of $47.87 per share.

Whether this happens to be cheap or expensive would depend on the post merger value. Analysts from Bank of America Merrill Lynch believe tha tLibertys chances of benefiting from the deal are attached to the consequential presence in Europe. The analysts believe that Liberty would not gain any tax benefits from the deal, despite the operating losses and capital allowances on Virgin Medias books.

Virgin: gold still in the mines

Virgin Medias operating losses of about 2.2 billion and capital allowances estimated at 12.9 billion would have provided immediate benefits to the acquirer if from the U.K. However, Libertys domicile, (UPC) based in the Netherlands, rules out immediate benefits. Liberty would have to register UPC as a Societas Europea (SE), in order to capitalize on Virgins tax assets and capital allowances.

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Liberty’s Acquisition of Virgin Media: Gold Still in the Mines?