Latin America August 4, 2020 Yanis Iqbal

On 11 March 2020, Peru declared a 90-day national sanitary emergency. Subsequently, the country announced a total lockdown beginning 16 March, 2020. Despite implementing one of the earliest and strictest COVID-19 containment lockdowns in Latin America, Peru has gotten trapped in the turmoil of rising COVID-19 cases. With more than 420,000 Coronavirus cases, Peru has become the third-worst hit country in Latin America. The country also has the highest excess death rates (count of deaths relative to a normal year) with the number of deaths between 16 March and 31 May being 87 per cent more than a normal year.

The current COVID-19 catastrophe in Peru is a natural corollary of an unbridled process of the self-valorization of capital. As a result of this aggressive accumulation of capital, the healthcare sector in todays Peru is teetering on the edge of an abyss. In this country, public health facilities for molecular testing are sparse and only 500 beds in intensive care units exist for a population of 32 million. Further, private hospitals are charging $3000 per day for Coronavirus care, a price that is absurd if we take cognizance of the fact that 1 out of every 5 Peruvian is impoverished, earning less than $105 per month. Discontented with and devastated by the massive deficiencies of public hospitals and the avarice of the private sector, Peruvians have taken to the streets to demonstrate against these patent injustices.

In the southern city of Arequipa, people agitated against Perus President Martin Vizcarra who had come to visit the Honorio Delgado Hospital. It was during these protests that Celia Capira ran after the presidents motorcade, desperately shouting Mr. President, dont go. Capiras 57-year old husband, Adolfo Mamani, had been kept in a bedraggled tent outside the Honorio Delgado Hospital, where he died on 21 July, 2020. While running behind the presidents vehicle, Capira said, Mr. President, you have to go to the tent, dont leave the hospital until youve seen the condition [patients] are in.

The dizzying scale and sheer grimness of Coronavirus deaths in Peru is not an isolated and sporadic event. In the city of Iquitos, too many people are dying and patients are forced to be seated outside the hospital in rocking chairs or in makeshift hospitals on football fields. The number of deaths is so high that Venezuelan immigrants are being employed to collect the carcasses of COVID-19 victims. These immiserated immigrants collect dead bodies from poor neighborhoods, from homes where people cant afford to hire a funeral director to handle the burial.

The current health crisis in Peru is deeply anchored in the neoliberal reforms that were introduced by successive governments beginning in the 1990s. Through these neoliberal policies, the US-imported model of managed competition was installed. The core idea of this health arrangement was to set up a privately managed corporatist framework that would operate simultaneously with public hospitals. But these private hospitals would not prosper if public hospitals continued to offer good services at a low cost. Therefore, the problem framed by neoclassical economists was this: If people can obtain healthcare for free or at a uniformly low cost, they will not have much incentive to pay insurance premiums to cover unexpected health hazards.

In order to make private hospitals prosper, the public health sector had to be sapped because no one would want to visit profit-minded private hospitals over good quality public hospitals. This was done through a reduction in social spending, which decreased to 9.4 per cent of the GDP in 2012, below the Latin American average of 19 per cent. There were two direct results of this undercutting of public health sector.

Firstly, due to fewer resources, urban health services sharply separated into an organized social security system for formally employed urban workers and a disorganized defunded public health system for the poor. In this arrangement, the social security health system offered urban formal sector workers a sanitized health system of higher quality and better resources than the public health system that served the poor. In patient safety level, for example, it has been found that richer patients (enrolled in the urban security health system) receive better attention than poorer patients (visiting public hospitals).

This is a frightening defect in the Peruvian health sector considering the fact that the public hospitals serve 73.8 per cent of the population. In spite of being the primary health facility for the entire country, public hospitals have not improved, and this has led to low-income patients seeking the services of local pharmacies. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), in reality most public hospitals are so under-funded, or payment procedures by AUS [Universal Health Insurance] are so lengthy and bureaucratic that many patients eventually buy their own medicines, facing significant out-of-pocket expenditures. In some cases, these out-of-pocket health expenditures have become catastrophic health expenditures, i.e., healthcare spending equal to or higher than 40 of the households capacity to pay.

Catastrophic health expenditure occur frequently in Peru because this country gives enormous tariffs exemptions to multinational corporations, and thereby, loses tariff revenues that could have been used to fund public health services and provide free medicines to the populace. But an end to the predatory practices of multinational corporations has not happened in Peru, and medicinal prices are continuing to rise. In 2014, for example, the cost of the antiretroviral drug atazanavir (Reyataz) was eating up fully half of Perus budget for AIDS medicines. Peru was paying $10.50 per pill, while the same pill cost $3.60 in Brazil and as little as 50 cents on the international market To look at it another way, a years treatment was costing Peru $3,832 per patient, while the Pan American Health Organizations Strategic Fund was obtaining generics for only $182 per patient.

In the current conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic, Perus health situation has drastically worsened due to the systematic defunding of public hospitals and the populations consequent heavy reliance on out-of-pocket health expenditures. According to the Volume 1 of Financing Health in Latin America, in times of health shocks, poor and uninsured households will need to drastically adjust their current consumption to afford large OOP [out-of-pocket] health expenditures. Furthermore, these temporary adjustments may have permanent consequences. If food expenditures are reduced, childrens nutrition may suffer, with possibly permanent effects on their learning abilities, thus affecting their future performance at school and in the labour market. Children may also be forced to drop out of schoolif the health shock lasts long enough. In any event, either catastrophic health expenditures or income losses may push the family of a severely ill or injured person into poverty. It is pertinent to note that out-of-pocket or catastrophic payment indicators understate the gravity of the problem since there are people who do not utilize health services when needed because they are unable to afford out-of-pocket payments at all.

Secondly, as a result of the gradual weakening and privatization of public hospitals, the rural regions have been effaced from the socio-medical imaginary. With the erosion of public health services to an extent that it barely sufficed for the urban population, the frayed rural edges of Peru started receiving what was left of an outstretched public health sector. It is estimated that 90 per cent of public hospitals and health clinics are in urban areas, 7 per cent in marginal urban zones and only 3 per cent in rural areas. In 2009, Lima concentrated 53 per cent of the countrys physicians, 40 per cent of its nurses and 44 per cent of the dentists. In these urban areas, there are select private hospitals which offer acceptable care covering a wide range of specialties, with many doctors trained in Europe and the US.

While European and American doctors cater to the need of rich patients in urban areas, rural patients in Peru receive medical care which is gruelingly inadequate. In the rural areas, there are four main problems: i) lack of tools to address challenging types of diagnostic problems, ii) health system-related barriers to the diagnostic process, iii) patients barriers in following through with diagnostic referrals, and iv) lack of ideas for technological innovation to enhance the diagnostic process. Apart from these four problems directly related to the defunding of the public health system, another issue has been doctors unwillingness to work in public hospitals.

As per an OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) study, even though health professionals are trained in both public and private universities, the majority do not end up working for public health providers and even less in rural and marginal areas. To remedy this, the Rural and Urban Marginal Health Service (SERUMS) was implemented wherein it was made mandatory for health professionals to work in rural or peri-urban areas for normally one year. One year after the completion of SERUMS, it has been shown that only 25 per cent of health professionals were working in the public sector, evidencing more attractive working conditions elsewhere. Moreover, only 10 per cent of specialists were working in the public sector two years after completing their residencies.

SERUMS has proved to be fruitless because as long as a profit-maximizing logic exists in the health sector, doctors will choose an occupation which guarantees the greatest returns on their skills. A generalized framework of capital self-valorization in which surplus accumulation is an end in itself, the medical sector gets economically embroiled in the unending circuit of capital and is re-patterned as a profession concerned with profiting from patients. In Peru, SERUMS was not able to reconstruct the highly unequal urban-rural medical divide because capital-centered health practices remained untouched and unaffected by piecemeal health initiatives.

Perus inherently unequal health system differs strikingly from the socialist medical administration in Cuba. A study by the Tricontinental Institute for Social Research documents how Cubas revolutionary system has given it the strength and ability to survive in the face of blockades and pandemics, integrating workers, peasants, scientists, mass organizations, and civil defence systems with a party and a government that puts human life at the centre of its attention. Being a socialist medical administration wherein profit motives are secondary to collective ethics, Cuba has doctors who prioritize cooperative feelings over individualistic sentiments. Using Lenins words, one can say that in Cuba, [t]he majority [of the doctors] are of the kind who are willing to struggle to solve the fundamental problem of the salvation of our culture, and these doctors are devoting themselves to this hard and difficult task with as much self-sacrifice as a military specialist. They are prepared to give their strength to the promotion of the common cause.

As the COVID-19 pandemic progresses in Peru, the immense inequalities of the entire health system are being laid bare. Through neoliberal policies, public hospitals have been destabilized, exposing innumerable Peruvians to the vagaries of the COVID-19 health shock. The number of people left unprotected from the COVID-19 pandemic in Peru has increased in the last few months due to urban job losses in the formal sector. By analyzing the electronic payroll, a major indicator of formal employment, we can see that during the COVID-19 pandemic, informalization has increased. When this indicator is compared with the same period in 2019, it emerges that the figure fell nearly 30 per cent in March 2020 (the lockdown was imposed on 16 March) and nearly 80 per cent in April and May. Now, many more people are living outside the social security system, totally dependent on out-of-pocket expenditure and a disintegrating public health system. In the current period, one should finally realize that capitalist medical system marginalizes the masses, sacrifices them for profit and has to be replaced by a socialist medical regime.

Yanis Iqbal is a student and freelance writer based in Aligarh, India and can be contacted at yanisiqbal@gmail.com.

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The Collapse of Healthcare in Peru - The Bullet - Socialist Project

The events at Mount Dov earlier this week, in order to be understood, need to be placed in the broader context of Israels ongoing undeclared military campaign against Iran. They also cannot be separated from Hezbollahs current status as the de facto ruler of Lebanon.In the Israel-Iran conflict, at the present time, Lebanon is a secondary front. A state of de facto mutual deterrence has largely held in this area since the 2006 war. The preference of both Israel and Hezbollah for the moment is that this situation should hold.Israel, in addition to the quiet and ongoing campaign against Iran in Syria, and beyond it, is focused at present on the pandemic and its various economic, social and political costs.Lebanon and Hezbollahs focus is of necessity the same. Hezbollah is today the dominant force in Lebanese public life. The bloc of which it is a part holds a majority in the 128-member parliament and a majority in the cabinet. Prime Minister Hassan Diab is its obedient servant.This means that the profound economic crisis currently gripping the country falls squarely in Hezbollahs lap. It is required to operate and to make decisions as a governing force, responsible for the avoidance of general socioeconomic collapse, which is now a real possibility in Lebanon.The aforementioned dynamic ought to support the continuation of uneasy quiet along the border. The problem is that Hezbollah is not only or primarily a successful local political actor. Rather, it is a franchise of Irans Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Indeed, its local political predominance is a direct function of the outsize strength and capacity afforded it in the Lebanese context by Iranian support.As an IRGC franchise, Hezbollah forms an integral and important element in Irans larger regional strategy. Israel is currently engaged in an ongoing campaign to degrade and roll back a particular element of that strategy namely, the effort by Iran to consolidate and extend its presence in Syria.For Hezbollah, the extension of this presence is a cardinal interest. The Iranian deployment in Syria provides Hezbollah with a strategic hinterland and a potential extended front line against Israel in the event of war. Syria also contains nodes along the land and air bridges by which Iran seeks to supply its Lebanese franchise and improve its capacities and capabilities.The Iranian presence in Syria is not maintained only or mainly by Iranian personnel. Tehran maintains a variety of both local Syrian and international (Arab and non-Arab) proxies to advance its interest in this area. This includes Afghan, Iraqi and Pakistani elements. The Lebanese IRGC franchise is also an integral and prominent element in Syria.For this reason, despite the narrow mutual interest in quiet along the Israel-Lebanon border, Israel and Hezbollah are engaged in an ongoing, direct conflict on neighboring soil.Israel has neither the desire nor the ability to avoid harm to the specific Lebanese component of the IRGCs deployment in Syria.So the question arises as to how to manage the continued current narrow mutual desire for quiet on the border, even as this conflict continues.CLEARLY, HEZBOLLAHS desire is to deter Israel to a point where it ceases to cause harm to its personnel in the Syrian context. This appears to be unachievable. Failing this, it needs to show (not least to its own public and also to its Iranian masters) that the blood of its fighters cannot be shed without cost.To do this, the movement needs to extract a serious price from Israel for all such actions in this regard. But it needs to do this without causing a large-scale Israeli retaliation into Lebanon, which it can ill afford and does not want. This is a difficult balancing act to perform.The process was put to the test again this week. The death of Hezbollah operative Ali Mohsen in an alleged Israeli bombing in the Damascus area on July 20 made a response along the border inevitable. Israels forces deployed in expectation of enemy action along the border. An abortive effort, according to the IDF, took place on July 27, in which a section of Hezbollah fighters crossed the border. The force was spotted, engaged by the IDF, and then it rapidly retreated.This was the third such occurrence in the last half decade. There has been a decline in the potency of Hezbollahs responses across this period. But from the beginning, the counterstrikes were not proportionate to the damage the movement was experiencing.In January 2015, in retaliation for the killing of a senior Hezbollah commander, an Iranian general and five others in the Quneitra area, Hezbollah succeeded in launching an anti-tank missile at an IDF jeep. Two IDF infantry soldiers were killed.In September 2019, the movement responded to an Israeli drone strike in Beirut on August 25 and the killing of two operatives in an airstrike on Damascus on August 24. On that occasion, Hezbollah made do with firing anti-tank missiles at an IDF outpost and an ambulance along the border. There were no fatalities.On the present occasion, still less appears to have been achieved. A group of fighters crossed the border, were engaged, and retreated, apparently without loss of life.Following the incident, a Hezbollah statement in the evening denied that any incursion had been attempted. Hezbollahs statement in the evening of the 27th included an assertion that our retaliation for martyr Ali Mohsen is surely coming. The IDF will no doubt remain in a heightened state of alert in the coming days.But the declining level of Hezbollah response to IDF killings of its members in Syria in recent years is notable. The rule that Israel appears to be trying to impose is that the killing of Lebanese Hezbollah members outside of Lebanon will continue, and that the movements situation is such that it will be obliged to make only a token response to this. In this regard, Israels greater conventional military strength and hence capacity for damage is one side of this.The other side is Hezbollahs domestic situation in Lebanon. Ibrahim Amin, editor of the pro-Hezbollah Al Akhbar newspaper, often reflects the thinking of Hezbollahs leadership in his editorials. In an article this week, Amin wrote that the resistance did not initiate the declaration of war, but on the contrary, it has always said and it means what it says that it does not want war. But not at any cost. In the sense that the resistance, which does not want war, also does not want to surrender in order not to have war.The oddly defensive tone of this statement is at odds with the usual timbre of Amins editorials. These tend to read like the haughty edicts of a triumphant general. The article was written in Arabic, and is meant for local consumption. It is clearly intended to assure the Lebanese public, at a moment of unprecedented domestic crisis, that Hezbollah is not seeking to embroil them in renewed conflict. The movements dominant domestic position matters to it (and its masters in Tehran). It cannot be maintained by coercion alone.This leaves Hezbollah caught between the desire to maintain a general deterrence against Israeli strikes against its members, and the urgent need not to provoke a new war. The consequent possibility is that it may have to settle for rules of engagement in which Israel leaves it alone in Lebanon (unless provoked) while reaping a toll of its fighters in Syria. The period ahead will show whether or not, given unavoidable realities, this latter arrangement is for now acceptable to the Lebanese IRGC franchise.Following the 2006 War, Hezbollah moved into a more overt and political role in Lebanon. Since 2018, the coalition of which it is a part has ruled the country. Some observers in Israel maintained in the post-2006 period that Hezbollahs hybrid status was its main asset, which would begin to evaporate as it became the overt ruler of the country in which it was established by the IRGC in 1982. This theory is now being put to the test.

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Understanding Hezbollah's complex planning behind the events on Har Dov - The Jerusalem Post

By Ben Oliver 1 August 2020

The coronavirus pandemic and the ruling class negligent response to it is a traumatic event for world humanity. Studies show the pernicious impact the crisis is having on the mental health of billions. Drawing on research of past disasters and disease, psychologists predict that a mental health shadow pandemic will last for years after the disease has subsided.

This mental health pandemic has various causes and manifestations. As World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has said, Social isolation, fear of contagion, and loss of family members is compounded by the distress caused by loss of income and often employment.

World COVID-19 cases will soon eclipse 20 million and there have been more than 675,000 deaths to date. After lockdowns wreaked economic havoc for the ruling class, and forced workers and their families into poverty and hunger, corporations and governments are now seeking to drive workers back into unsafe workplaces.

Although resilience to disaster is natural, the pandemic isnt like a wildfire or hurricane. Dealing with the insidious uncertainty of its spread is more like living with a domestic abuser or being deployed to a war zone. Being witness to brutal repression of protests compounds the distress.

In the United States, the spread of the virus has had an immediate effect on mental health. Calls to a Disaster Distress Hotline, run by the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, increased by 338 percent in March. In April, 42 percent of Americans reported feelings of hopelessness and calls to the hotline climbed 900 percent. One in 25 Americans had lost a close family member or friend. By June, a University of Chicago survey reported 40 percent of Americans had depressive symptoms, and in July, 56 percent reported at least one negative effect on their well-being.

Internationally, much research has already been conducted on the psychological impacts of the pandemic. In the United Kingdom, the Mental Health Foundation has been conducting a study since March on the psychological impacts of the pandemic. Half of the UK population has reported anxiety. Half of the Spanish population reported mild-to-severe psychological impacts, and more than half of the Chinese population reported moderate-to-severe psychological impact.

To begin to get a sense of the immensity of mental distress caused by the pandemic, half of the combined populations of China, Spain, the UK and the US is almost a billion people; nearly one-eighth the worlds population.

In the US, the second surge started to hit Southern states and California in June. In Louisiana, which has been especially hard-hit, the seven-day new case count is 15,870, 42.9 percent of residents have experienced symptoms of anxiety or depression, a 3.9-fold increase since last year. Feeding America predicts food insecurity among 52.5 percent of children in East Carroll Parish, Louisiana, the highest level nationally.

Physicians in Louisiana are observing new physical symptoms suggestive of the psychological burden: weight gain, high blood pressure, and high blood sugar. A lot of folks who would come in with one or two problems now have 10, said Dr. Chad Braden of Baton Rouge, speaking to the New Orleans Advocate.

The pandemic, mass unemployment and financial precarity are caustic to mental health and compound previous inequalities. As the UK study cited above states:

The distribution of infections and deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic, the lockdown and associated measures, and the longer-term socioeconomic impact are likely to reproduce and intensify the financial inequalities that contribute towards the increased prevalence and unequal distribution of mental ill-health.

In June, 44.7 percent of the unemployed in the UK worried about having enough money for food, and a quarter were suicidal, double the rate in the general population. In the US, 40 percent of households have had difficulty affording basic necessities in the past three months.

Just as the pandemic has led to a redistribution of wealth, the UK study shows a divergence in psychological impacts between those already at risk financially, socially, medically and psychologically and the rest of the population. People with previous psychiatric conditions have suffered the most. One-on-one therapy, peer support, volunteering and supported employment are impossible. The suicidality rate for this population is almost triple the rate in the general public. People with preexisting physical disabilities are also isolated from essential psychosocial support, and many live in high-risk residential facilities, as do the elderly, for whom loneliness and the fear of death have been exacerbated.

Women report greater psychological impacts owing to a disproportionate representation in affected industries, being the primary caregivers at home, and an increase in domestic abuse. In June, 43 percent of Americans with children reported feeling hopeless. Children are at particular risk for mental health impacts. According to the WHO, they have experienced an increase of restlessness and difficulty focusing, which may indicate a psychological impact. Children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) may have more difficulty adjusting to lockdown, and children with autism may suffer from a change in habit and ritual.

The UK study found a spike in the numbers of single parents seeking support. Sixty-three percent are anxious or worried, 43 percent are lonely, and 28 percent are afraid. Many were reliant on insecure, casual employment and suffer from a loss of income and social isolation. The risk of postnatal and perinatal mental health problems has increased, these conditions are less likely to be identified, and care is more difficult to access. Concern is warranted for infants and toddlers of single parents, as these years are critical to social and cognitive development.

Various studies and surveys document a disproportionate mental health impact on youth globally. The population between the ages of 18 and 24 are more likely than any other age group to not cope well, with 22 percent reporting suicidality. Education has been cut, job prospects are greatly lessened, youth are isolated from their peers, and their lives are less structured. As one respondent to the UK study said, It feels like their whole, like, their whole generation is being wasted.

The pandemic has worsened the mental health of 83 percent of UK teens with a mental health history, and 60 percent of Americans between the ages of 18 and 22 report symptoms of depression. High risk factors for youth, include losing a parent, having an infected relative or acquaintance, lost family income, more time invested in social media, increased family conflict or violence and the ubiquitous issues of death. The distress that is affecting nearly everyone is particularly felt by young people. Three-quarters of mental health problems arise before the mid-20s, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) peaks at ages 1624. For teens, the disruption in their social environment could slow their cognitive and psychological maturation, posing life-long consequences.

Nowhere is mental anguish more acute than in the health care field. Anywhere the virus breaks containment, workers battle overwhelming influxes of patients for whom there are no proven treatments. They risk their lives with insufficient protective equipment and staffing, knowing first-hand the limitations of the system to care for them if they fall ill. Already experiencing a crisis of burnout, the New England Journal of Medicine describes a surge of physical and emotional harm that amounts to a parallel pandemic facing the US clinical workforce.

Three New York City health workers have been driven to take their lives. John Mondello, 23, a rookie emergency medical technician (EMT), died of a self-inflicted gunshot wound on April 24. Lt. Matthew Keene, a veteran EMT, shot himself on June 19. Dr. Lorna Breen killed herself on April 26 while visiting family. The emergency room at New York-Presbyterian Allen Hospital, where Breen was a supervisor, became a brutal battleground during the surge.

The pandemic comes at a time soon after suicide became the 10th leading cause of death in the US, increasing 35 percent from 1999 to 2018. Drug overdoses in 2020 have increased by 13 percent over the previous year, one-tenth of the general UK population has reported suicidal thoughts. According to the Chicago Tribune, suicides in the US could increase by 20 per day. Models on the 2008 recession crisis predict a 1.6 percent increase in suicide for every 1 percent rise in the unemployment rate. At levels of 20 percent unemployment, 18,000 suicides can be predicted along with 22,000 drug overdoses. Adjusting for misclassified and undercounted workers, the true unemployment rate now is 27.4 percent.

Lessons from studies on the impact of past pandemics may predict the psychological impacts of COVID-19. Thirty percent of children whose families were quarantined during the H1N1 and Sars-CoV-1 pandemics developed PTSD. Anxiety and depressive symptoms among health care workers, and a high prevalence of psychiatric symptoms in the general public lasted for months and years after Sars-CoV-1. Income reduction was the highest predictive factor in the development of psychological disorders after the Sars-CoV-1 pandemic. The 1918 influenza increased first-time asylum admissions in Norway by 7.2-fold, and US influenza death rates significantly and positively related to suicide.

To address the burgeoning mental health crisis, more studies and intervention are needed. Clinicians are intervening, but armies of mental health workers must be rallied. In the US, experts have called for $38.5 billion in funding. The CARES Act set aside one-half of one one-hundredth that amount.

The May 6 UK study stated: there will be no vaccine for these population mental health impacts. One should add: under capitalism. To think that the prevailing conditions exacerbated by the negligent policies of the ruling class will improve, or even return to their prior state, would be nave. The only corrective to the myriad social and economic factors critical to mental well-being is the organization of society to meet the needs of humanity.

The health care system in the US and globally, of which mental health treatment is an integral part, must be wrested from the control of the private health insurance industry, the pharmaceutical companies and the giant for-profit health care chains and placed under workers control. This requires the socialist reorganization of the entire economy under a workers government.

The author also recommends:

Two New York City health care workers commit suicide within 48 hours [28 April 2020]

New York City EMS worker commits suicide [8 July 2020]

An interview with Dr. Mona Masood, founder of the Physician Support Line [17 June 2020]

US drug overdose deaths soared to record highs in 2019 [17 July 2020]

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The coronavirus pandemic and the growing mental health crisis - WSWS

By Adeola Akinremi

If youre looking for a good telling of humans of Lagos stories, you should check out the social media handles of the Governor of Lagos State, Babajide Sanwo-Olu. He connects in ways his colleagues around the country hardly do and he has surpassed his predecessors record in meeting people where they are.

To use common, everyday words, Sanwo-Olu is a man of the people.

Its obvious, time and chances are at play but rarely, do we see a governor walk into a room and instantly put everyone at ease.

Last week, after the video of a boy (Oreoluwa) who stalled his mom from spanking him for his offence went viral with his calm down catchphrase, the smiley governor reached out with a request to meet the boy. He even adopted the boys catchphrase to pass a message of sobriety and safety to Lagosians as they grapple with coronavirus during Eid-el-Kabir celebration.

I think that offers lots of insights into the real man of the governor.

First, Governor Sanwo-Olu convinced the people of Lagos State that he cares about families and children and that his eyes will catch even the small things that people think may not have much appeal to leaders like him.

And by asking to meet the boy, the governor elevated his real message of reassuring vulnerable people that someone is on their side.

In March, when fire disaster took the lives of several Lagosians with multiple properties destroyed at Abule Ado, Sanwo-Olu carried the images of destruction to Abuja to show President Muhammadu Buhari, a sign of deep sense of loss combined with desperate search for help for his people.

You see, the ability of a leader to be empathetic and compassionate or otherwise will let you know his capability to put policies behind any social-economic crisis that could alter the lives of the citizens he leads.

I can tell two related stories. In March 2001, I was sitting in an office at the International Press Center in Ogba, when an explosion rocked Ikeja Cantonment. The vibration reached nearly every part of Lagos, including where I was in Ogba and everyone was terrified. After much delay before visiting the disaster scene, the former President Olusegun Obasanjo showed up with arrogance. Obasanjo arrived at the scene with no empathy for the people. He uttered words that pushed people deeply into dejection. I am not supposed to be here, he said, as he crafted his words to respond to victims of the blast on why he delayed.

In a most recent history, when the late governor of Oyo State, Abiola Ajimobi, was faced with a situation that required empathy, he didnt surprised anyone that he had none after he threatened frightened Ladoke Akintola University of Technology students whose university have been shut for several months due to disagreement between Oyo and Osun States governments on funding of the institution. For his action, he earned the stripe of constituted authority, till he died.

Beyond the personal, empathy is the ability to recognize, understand, and feel the emotions of other people. It provides those who have it to respond appropriately to some other persons thoughts and feelings.

In a time of isolation, despair, deprivation, confusion, and shock, connecting with citizens matters most but when a leader shows he cares and understands their situations, it is impressive.

Apparently, Oreoluwas story by its very nature and channel caught the attention of everyone but the other story of a man that the governor rescued from plunging into the lagoon in a suicide attempt on the Third Mainland Bridge revealed more about the blow-back effect of the social economic crisis that COVID-19 and past situations have forced on Nigerians.

Across Nigeria, deaths of despairs commonly called suicides are rising and were pretending it is not there.

Before now, it is common to hear people say Nigerians dont commit suicide but that no longer reflect our current situation.

Think about this for a moment. What happens to Nigerias future if its young people are taking the hard choices of committing suicides?

Thats exactly what Daily Trust emphasised with its screaming headline of June 2019, that says students top list as 42 Nigerians commit suicide in 6 months,

With its headline, Daily Trust showed the impact of stress on a demographic that we should not have to worry about. Unfortunately, right now the spate of deaths of despair among that population should get us worried.

On July 31, Governor Sanwo-Olu wrote on twitter that earlier in the morning, we rescued somebody who was planning to jump into the Lagoon at the Third Mainland Bridge because he had a debt of N500,000. We rescued him and paid the debt. These details are what makes the difference.

We need to always show the humane side of us while not losing sight of the big picture. Yes, we want to build roads, bridges and schools but we certainly need to create time for the little things as well.

Make no mistake, this COVID-19 crisis that has stretched and tested everyone beyond the normal and unforeseen ways, is revealing resilience and grit of some people just as it is showing us how some people are driven to the edge by global anxiety. So, the governors gesture is simply right.

However, to simply cast himself as a handout governor without addressing the issues that are at the heart of suicide will be damaging to the reputation of Governor Sanwo-Olu who caught the sight of a leader who takes policy decisions based on foolproof research and data analysis of a trending subject.

At present, were seen uptick in the number of suicides across Nigeria. Indeed, hardly will you open a newspaper daily or hook up unto social media without a suicide story. It is depressive to see depressed people die by taking their own lives.

So what can we do as a country? We need to begin to act to prevent suicide and I think governor Sanwo-Olu can be a champion. He can define suicide as a national problem with mental illness as an underlying cause and then put it on the agenda during policy meetings at the federal level, in Lagos State and within the governors forum where his status as a cosmopolitan governor commands attention.

Based on facts, rates of suicide, for instance, are higher during economic recessions and periods of high unemployment. They are also higher during periods of social disintegration, political instability and social collapse, according to World Health Organization

Now, what is this telling us? Elevated suicide rates as being experienced in Nigeria may indicate a high burden of mental illness triggered by socioeconomic variables and other factors.

To reduce suicide, there are important policies that government needs to act upon.

One of the poor narratives about Nigeria is that as a country we know how to create laws but not how to implement the laws.

Does it surprise you that since Nigeria created a national policy on mental health in 1991, the implementation across states has stalled. At best it remains a paper that continues to gather dust with no serious implementation.

While strengthening economic policies that can improve household income is critical to changing the situation, addressing the gap in treatment and access to mental health care is important too.

In Nigeria, few people with mental health disorders go for treatment because of the stigma that goes along with having those conditions and being transparent about it. This barrier can be removed where the government is serious about offering solutions.

The danger of ignoring to act on mental health can have a spiral effect on lives and economy, so acting timely to make people comfortable in using the services will save the day.

The federal neuropsychiatric hospitals in Nigeria are not many. They are eight, poorly staffed with shoestring budget and out of reach as people must travel miles from their homes to access care.

It is not a good story for Nigeria on the global map. Nigeria leads in depression data for Africa and sits almost at the top as the 15th country in the world with suicides rate, according to WHO.

Sadly, psychiatric care is least on Nigerias priority. We can look at the math together. In 2018, according to a report, Yabapsychiatric hospitalsubmitted a budget of 133 million naira ($372,000) but only 13 million naira ($36,000) of that amount was released by the federal government.

I dont know where Lagos stands currently on mental health, except that its health ministry posted a proposed mental health policy for Lagos State on its website, but I know that Mr. Sanwo-Olu can bring necessary changes to mental health in Lagos State, just as hes strategically positioned to be a champion of this change at the federal level.

Quote: So what can we do as a country? We need to begin to act to prevent suicide and I think governor Sanwo-Olu can be a champion. He can define suicide as a national problem with mental illness as an underlying cause and then put it on the agenda during policy meetings at the federal level, in Lagos State and within the governors forum where his status as a cosmopolitan governor commands attention

Side Effects

Classof2020It must have been a big relief for young people who are facing this years West African Senior School Certificate Examination to hear the news that they would commence the examination on August 17. Now it is time to turn your despair to hope and get the best out of this. I know everything has been in limbo for months but that surely should an advantage to get safely to the end of your curriculum. Ill leave you with the words of Robert Kiyosaki. Dont let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning. Goodluck!

IsaiasNotIsaiahThe names of hurricanes in the U.S can be funny. Weve heard of Hurricanes with fancy names. Weve heard of hurricanes with human names. Hurricane Andrew, Sandy, Katrina, Maria, Harvey and now it is Isaias. But dont twist it, this is not Isaiah the prophet coming as a flood. This hurricane is pronounced ees-ah-EE-ahs. The important issue here is that Florida is facing double crisis with COVID-19 surging in the state and storm settling on its coast. Lets pray for Florida to have peace in storm. Troubling

Merit Vs Mediocrity

The issue of power rotation is a touchy issue in Nigeria. For all you care, it is not in our constitution. It is just some political capitalists trading and distributing political power like family biscuit among themselves in a non-binding agreement. But it has helped for inclusion, otherwise I dont know how someone from the Niger Delta will ever become Nigerias president. If you ask where I stand, I will go for merit, regardless of how we interpret Mallam Mamman Dauras message. The turn by turn, power shift or rotational presidency has not improved Nigeria in any way, but it helps for inclusion and avoidance of crisis. Sensitive!

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Sanwo-Olu, the Governor who Empathises - THISDAY Newspapers

When the entire world was thrown into a lesson on modern survival, our reliance on the trucking industry became even more pronounced. Since then, theres been some appreciation in the press and a few signs in some yards, but the unsung system of moving freight continues to remain anonymous. It will always be a constant struggle to manage multiple distribution channels so goods and services can reach the consumer. Practically all of it depends on trucking at some point, but most people still have no idea that society would collapse without trucks.

Business leaders have become more focused on the fragility of supply chains, so I applied that to the trucking industry and came up with three critical areas: trucks, fuel, and drivers. I put drivers last for a specific reason because there is a real possibility that trucks could be driven in the same or a similar way to drones being flown from thousands of miles away. Imagine an integrated network of vehicles that do not have physical drivers in the seat and are driven with sensors and GPS. One person could control multiple vehicles on different monitors and even step in to drive the truck remotely when alerted or needed.

Fuel is better described as an energy source. Electric trucks are interesting, but the limited range and time to recharge are severe obstacles that must be overcome at a price thats lower than diesel. Without a national network of hi-speed charging stations, the next best thing would be rechargeable batteries. They would be similar to the batteries on cordless tools but a lot more powerful and probably a lot larger/heavier. Like my driverless truck, its possible.

The truck itself will always be the most important link in the supply chain. It can get large quantities of anything to any destination as long as there is a passable road or path. On my driverless rechargeable truck in fantasyland, every component would be electric and simply swapped out when it didnt work. No more fuel, fluids or compressed air. Technology like electric motors and regenerative braking systems have the potential to change the concept of the commercial motor vehicle.

Of course, the only thing that is unlikely to change at Fantasyland Trucking is the tires. Everything else could look completely different in the immediate and not-too-distant future, but Im betting the pneumatic tire will continue to play the same role it has played for over a century. There might even be some advances in securing it to the vehicle, but the tubeless radial truck tire has been so reliable and adaptable for so long that it is going to be impossible to replace in my lifetime.

That level of reliance is troubling given what weve learned about the dependence on foreign countries for strategically important products or materials. Manufacturing isnt an issue. Theres enough domestic truck tire capacity to avoid any long-term disruptions and physical space for expansion will not be an issue for most tire companies. If for some reason the supply of imported tires was interrupted for an extended period of time, there would be some short term pain and almost certain price increases, but the trucks would keep moving.

Natural rubber (NR) will always be the weakest link in the vehicle transportation system and more than 70% of the world supply goes to the tire industry. Its an agricultural product that is constantly subjected to drought, disease and various environmental threats. It only grows in the subtropical regions of Southeast Asia and while other plant alternatives have shown some promise, there will never be enough Russian dandelions and/or guayule to meet the demand from tire manufacturers. The possibility of developing synthetic materials to replace NR still exists, but as far as I know, there are certain performance characteristics of the latex from the Hevea brasiliensis that have yet to be recreated in a lab.

During the rubber shortages of 1942-1945 due to World War II, the effort to ration tires and rubber led to a national Victory Speed of 35 mph on all roads, streets and highways. Given the continued fragility of NR production and the fact that about 95% of global output is located in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, India and China, tire manufacturers have a collective interest in maintaining a steady supply of a key raw material that will never be sourced domestically. As a result, they are founding members of the Global Platform for Sustainable Natural Rubber (GPSNR) to lead improvements in the socio-economic and environmental performance of the natural rubber value chain.

Approximately 85% of global NR production is categorized as smallholders where local people cultivate scattered patches of Hevea brasiliensis. Many of these small co-ops are either unaware of or unable to afford sustainable farming practices. The GPSNR is trying to change that and help them develop environmentally sound practices. Given the long term strategic importance of tires in the trucking industry, supporting their efforts will help ensure the sustainability of NR to keep things like victory speeds in the history books where they belong.

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As trucking evolves, the pneumatic tire will likely play the same role it always has - Fleet Owner

New taxes are always unpopular. Macroeconomists and policy wonks generally agree that It is counterproductive and unwise to impose new taxes in the middle of a recession, with the possible exception of a fat-cat income surtax that would not materially impact the economy. However, governments at all levels are desperate for new post-COVID-19 revenue sources.

Meanwhile, the stock market and the economic data both reveal a growing "COVID chasm" between leading digital businesses and smaller companies that rely on local storefront sales and services. The global technology giants' shareholders have recently enjoyed new all-time-record highs. Yet most economists expect that when federal pandemic-stimulus aid dries up, small-business bankruptcies will increase. And the pandemic has accelerated America's migration away from shopping malls and Main Street shops.

Local governments, which are the most highly dependent on property-tax revenues, see this erosion of local commerce most vividly. The stomping elephant in the room is Amazon: Its pre-COVID e-commerce sales were at least seven times those of its nearest competitor, Walmart, and its market share has surged during the pandemic.

All of this sets the stage for policymakers in Washington to begin looking at what might have seemed unthinkable just a few months ago: federal taxation of interstate digital commerce, which could have significant revenue implications for state and local governments if they play their cards right.

President Trump might love to see a tax on Amazon alone: He harbors a personal grudge because of its founder's ownership of the editorially unfriendly Washington Post and because of the recent suspension for "hateful conduct" of the president's campaign-rally videos by Twitch, an Amazon-owned streaming service. Putting Oval Office ire aside, however, it's not far-fetched to think that there could be popular and congressional support for a targeted federal tax on the interstate Internet revenues of all of the goliath digital oligopolies, not only Amazon but also companies like Apple, eBay, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Netflix and Twitter. A federal tax might also apply to the online sales of other giant retailers with big-box storefronts, such as Walmart.

One rationale for such a tax is the same as the argument for the levies on online sales that states already collect: that it would help to level the playing field for smaller home-town competitors. By some estimates, the behemoth online retailers enjoy a 5 to 10 percent price advantage over local vendors. Aside from products, cloud and software services often escape sales taxes, as do online ads. A federal levy on those revenue streams would appeal to antitrust progressives who want to help smaller, local businesses compete.

The point here is to respectfully spur state and local government officials to start thinking now about how they can tap into a national tax on digital commerce. Even though the total revenue potential today is probably less than $100 billion across all market segments, it's almost inevitable that Congress will eventually need to target this superfast-growing sector of the economy. Whether it's to help pay for swelling federal debt service, national defense, new infrastructure or something like Medicare for All, the low-hanging revenue streams in this sector of the economy cannot be ignored much longer on Capitol Hill. The European Union is already staking its claim.

State and local governments have been fighting U.S. meddling in the administration of their own online sales taxes, in legal disputes over remote commerce. They also have advanced congressional proposals for "marketplace fairness," which would allow states to tax online sales of companies with no physical presence within their borders. My suggestion here is that their policy teams should think outside their sandbox and start working for a healthy piece of a bigger federalist pie. Presuming that Uncle Sam will never tax e-commerce is like believing the earth is flat. There is no state and local constitutional monopoly for sales taxes, and the Constitution's Commerce Clause clearly tells us who holds the winning cards on interstate taxing authority.

Of course, such a tax would have powerful enemies. Industry lobbyists will howl bloody murder while their clients keep raking in billions. Stalwart Tea-Party conservatives in Congress will oppose any new tax reflexively, arguing that it would impede vital economic growth. Alarmists will suggest that it's just a foot in the door for a national value-added tax (VAT) or a federal general sales tax (GST).

Some liberals will resist as well, pointing out that sales taxes are socio-economically regressive. That is untrue, however, for cloud-services revenues and software-as-services for affluent customers. A digital advertisement tax hits businesses, not households. And if richer investors in these mega-cap companies suffer a negative wealth effect from reduced market share, the overall economic impact would not be regressive. Eventually those who complain that the United States is the only developed economy without national health care will someday realize that, alarmists' concerns notwithstanding, we are also the biggest outlier without a national VAT or GST. They could pair any such tax with fat-cat levies such as an income surtax on One Percenters. Political moderates would say this is just the price Americans must eventually pay for years of federal fiscal irresponsibility.

The novel concept of revenue sharing through federal taxation of a broad spectrum of e-commerce is complex and needs thoughtful policy analysis. Many tech startups rely on ad revenues before they can lure users into paying for services directly, so a small-business exemption is essential. Where to draw the line on taxing software as a service and data storage for consumers versus companies will be an issue. An equally obvious challenge will be determining which companies must collect and pay over such taxes, and how to exclude small retailers that use a common platform like Shopify for their online sales. Whether a federal tax on interstate e-commerce should apply to the local or in-state sales by the goliaths that also have physical stores is debatable, unless the in-state revenues are passed down entirely. (While Congress is at it, lawmakers should consider taxing lucrative online gambling, leveraging federal criminal enforcement power over tax evasion by large illegal operators.)

It's hard to imagine the status quo in this realm standing much longer, particularly given the direction Europeans are heading and the mounting congressional discomfort with Big Tech. State and local policy advocates need to play to where the puck is heading.

Governing's opinion columns reflect the views of their authors and not necessarily those of Governing's editors or management.

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The State and Local Stake in a Federal Digital-Commerce Tax - Governing

The fight against plastic pollution is being hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, as the use of disposable masks, gloves and other protective equipment soars, but UN agencies and partners insist that, if effective measures are put into place, the amount of plastics discarded every year can be significantly cut, or even eliminated.

1) Pollution driven by huge increase in mask sales

The promotion of mask wearing as a way to slow the spread of COVID-19 has led to an extraordinary increase in the production of disposable masks: the UN trade body, UNCTAD, estimates that global sales will total some $166 billion this year, up from around $800 million in 2019.

Recent media reports, showing videos and photos of divers picking up masks and gloves, littering the waters around the French Riviera, were a wake-up call for many, refocusing minds on the plastic pollution issue, and a reminder that politicians, leaders and individuals need to address the problem of plastic pollution.

2) A toxic problem

If historical data is a reliable indicator, it can be expected that around 75 per cent of the used masks, as well as other pandemic-related waste, will end up in landfills, or floating in the seas. Aside from the environmental damage, the financial cost, in areas such as tourism and fisheries, is estimated by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) at around $40 billion.

The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) has warned that, if the large increase in medical waste, much of it made from environmentally harmful single-use plastics, is not managed soundly, uncontrolled dumping could result.

The potential consequences, says UNEP, which has produced a series of factsheets on the subject, include public health risks from infected used masks, and the open burning or uncontrolled incineration of masks, leading to the release of toxins in the environment, and to secondary transmission of diseases to humans.

Because of fears of these potential secondary impacts on health and the environment, UNEP is urging governments to treat the management of waste, including medical and hazardous waste, as an essential public service. The agency argues that the safe handling, and final disposal of this waste is a vital element in an effective emergency response.

Plastic pollution was already one of the greatest threats to our planet before the coronavirus outbreak, says Pamela Coke-Hamilton, UNCTADs director of international trade. The sudden boom in the daily use of certain products to keep people safe and stop the disease is making things much worse.

3) Existing solutions could cut plastics by 80 per cent

However, this state of affairs can be changed for the better, as shown by a recent, wide-ranging, report on plastic waste published by The Pew Charitable Trusts, and sustainability thinktank Systemiq.

The study, Breaking the Plastic Wave: A Comprehensive Assessment of Pathways Towards Stopping Ocean Plastic Pollution, which was endorsed by Inger Andersen, head of the UN environment agency UNEP, forecasts that, if no action is taken, the amount of plastics dumped into the ocean will triple by 2040, from 11 to 29 million tonnes per year.

But around 80 per cent of plastic pollution could be eliminated over this same period, simply by replacing inadequate regulation, changing business models and introducing incentives leading to the reduced production of plastics. Other recommended measures include designing products and packaging that can be more easily recycled, and expanding waste collection, particularly in lower income countries.

4) Global cooperation is essential

In its July analysis of plastics, sustainability and development, UNCTAD came to the conclusion that global trade policies also have an important role to play in reducing pollution.

Many countries have introduced regulations that mention plastics over the last decade, an indicator of growing concern surrounding the issue, but, the UNCTAD analysis points out, for trade policies to be truly effective, coordinated, global rules are needed.

The way countries have been using trade policy to fight plastic pollution has mostly been uncoordinated, which limits the effectiveness of their efforts, says Ms. Coke-Hamilton. There are limits to what any country can achieve on its own.

5) Promote planet and job-friendly alternatives

Whilst implementing these measures would make a huge dent in plastic pollution between now and 2040, the Pew/ Systemiq report acknowledges that, even in its best-case scenario, five million metric tons of plastics would still be leaking into the ocean every year.

A dramatic increase in innovation and investment, leading to technological advances, the reports studys authors conclude, would be necessary to deal comprehensively with the problem.

Furthermore, UNCTAD is urging governments to promote non-toxic, biodegradable or easily recyclable alternatives, such as natural fibres, rice husk, and natural rubber. These products would be more environmentally-friendly and, as developing countries are key suppliers of many plastic substitutes, could provide the added benefit of providing new jobs. Bangladesh, for example, is the worlds leading supplier of jute exports, whilst, between them, Thailand and Cte dIvoire account for the bulk of natural rubber exports.

Theres no single solution to ocean plastic pollution, but through rapid and concerted action we can break the plastic wave, said Tom Dillon, Pews vice president for environment. As the organizations report shows, we can invest in a future of reduced waste, better health outcomes, greater job creation, and a cleaner and more resilient environment for both people and nature.

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The Education Sector as an Engine for Inclusive Growth in Mauritania - Modern Diplomacy

On August 8, ASEAN will celebrate the 53rd anniversary of its establishment. Along this remarkable growth journey, ASEAN has undergone significant transitions.

The bloc turned from a region of conflicts and diversity, which characterised the region until the 1980s, to a region inspired by and united under One Vision, One Identity and One Caring and Sharing Community.

From a less developed region, ASEAN has become much more prosperous and a dynamic region. ASEAN successfully weathered economic headwinds such as the Asian financial crisis of 1997 and the global economic recession of 2008-2009. The regions gross domestic product (GDP) has been raised to early $3 trillion in 2018, more than four times the figure of 1999, making it the fifth largest economy in the world.

For almost two decades, ASEAN has been growing at an average annual rate of 5.3 per cent, consistently above the global average.

ASEAN has managed to balance economic growth with human development to lift millions of people out of poverty across the entire region. The development gap over the past 20 years has been gradually narrowed.

If almost half the ASEAN population in 1990 lived below the poverty line ($1.23 purchasing power parity per day), after 25 years, the proportion reduced to 14 per cent. Notably, the reduction was not restricted to the major economies, but also included the less developed CLMV countries (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam) where poverty rates fell from 66 per cent of the population in 1990 to 18 per cent in 2015 when ASEAN Economic Community was announced to be established.

In terms of living standards, improvements in access to health care, increases in the availability of safe water and sanitation facilities have helped strongly decrease the infant mortality rate which reached a figure of 26 per 1,000 live births in 2016, compared to a global average of 41.

Access to education has also been improved with enrolment rate in primary education in the region reaching 96 per cent in 2016, seven percentage points higher than the global average. The rate in the CLMV nations beat expectations to reach 98 per cent in 2016.

The positive transition of ASEAN is also recognised in terms of the openness of trade, investment, tourism and services, both intra-regional and inter-regional, and economic integration.

In 2018, ASEAN received $154.7 billion of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows, the highest in its history and a 30.4 per cent increase from total FDI inflows of $118.7 billion in 2015.

ASEANs efforts in economic integration have also paid off with intra-ASEAN accounting for the highest shares in trade and investment at 23 per cent and 15.9 per cent, respectively.

Efforts to boost intra-regional trade openness was manifested by the fact that 98.6 per cent of intra-ASEAN trade flows are now tariff free, not to mention the ongoing harmonisation of technical standards, a facilitation for greater labour mobility for eight industries (engineering, nursing, architecture, medicine, dentistry, tourism, surveying and accountancy).

From a divided ASEAN with a weak position in the global arena, the region has become a community internationally recognised with the role of centrality in initiating and developing various regional architectures.

ASEANs voice has gradually been raised strongly in regional and global forums, which is of great importance to international institutions. Despite disparities among member countries and rising global uncertainties, ASEAN is still able to maintain its stability, peace and development.

ASEAN secretary-general Lim Jock Hoi said: Such achievements are not to be taken for granted, as they are the outcomes of decades of trust-building, cooperation, and mutual market opening.

From the achievements, the world has had perspectives of ASEAN significantly different than before.

Economically, ASEAN now is deemed a hub for global trade and investment. When foreign investors look for investment destinations in the Southeast Asia, they not only aim to seek a base in ASEAN member countries for their factories, but also seek a market of 600 million people and the whole world.

Politically, ASEAN used to be criticised for its weak connection among member countries, weak institutions and too much dependence on consensus while there are still variations in the economic and social status among individual nations.

However, so far, the ASEAN connection is a successful story, showing the attachment and commitment to objectives, based on international and inter-governmental mechanisms.

All countries in Southeast Asia now belong to a community working together to achieve the aims and purposes inscribed in the ASEAN declarations. The association has succeeded in defusing tensions in the region and has helped maintain potentially explosive situations at a manageable level.

The association has succeeded in transforming a region riddled with disputes and rivalries into a generally stable neighbourhood. ASEAN has proved its vitality and become an important factor in ensuring an environment of peace and stability and promoting cooperation and development in the Asia-Pacific.

The central role of ASEAN is clearly manifested in ASEAN forums and meetings held annually with partners such as the ASEAN Regional Forum, the East Asia Summit, the ASEAN+1, the ASEAN+3 and the ASEAN+6.

In the future, ASEAN will likely face more challenges and uncertainties caused by tensions between major powers and the Covid-19 pandemic.

Despite growing at 4.6 per cent in 2019, ASEAN economy is expected to contract by 2.7 per cent due to the substantial impact of Covid-19.

Since the outbreak, and as lockdowns and quarantines were enforced in many ASEAN member states (AMS), job losses and business closures have mounted. This led to a sharp fall in productive economic activities particularly in the hardest hit sectors such as tourism, aviation, manufacturing, as well as the vulnerable groups.

The pandemic is likely to have a prolonged impact on the macro-economy. A well thought out recovery plan to restore in particular fiscal discipline in the AMS is vital in the post-pandemic period.

At the regional level, ASEAN should formulate a regional socio-economic recovery plan post-Covid-19 to facilitate regional growth. A detailed plan for the regional post-Covid-19 recovery would require close coordination across sectors and community pillars, as well as a dialogue with various stakeholders.

ASEAN should also further promote the sense of Community through further deepening economic integration, strengthening political-security and socio-cultural pillars with more people-centre institutions.

Victoria Kwakwa, the World Banks vice-president for East Asia and the Pacific was quoted in the ASEAN Economic Integration Brief publication last month as saying: Even in ASEAN, which has suffered less than other parts of the world, we cannot take the transition to a post-pandemic stage for granted in either health or economic terms.

To make that transition, she said that ASEAN must not treat containment of the disease and mitigation of the economic pain as separate goals to be achieved with separate instruments. Instead, the bloc needs to take an integrated view of policy where health and economic authorities work together to help preserve both lives and livelihoods.

If ASEAN could do these tasks effectively, we have a firm foundation to believe that its central role and position in shaping the wider regions future would be maintained.

VIET NAM NEWS/ASIA NEWS NETWORK

Vo Tri Thanh is a senior economist at the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) and a member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council.

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More than 50 years of remarkable transition of ASEANPhnom Penh Post - The Phnom Penh Post