While it took 45 days to climb from 1 million and 2 million coronavirus cases in the United States, it took just only 16 days for infections to jump from 3 million to, as of Thursday, 4 million.

How did that happen?

What we have right now are essentially three New Yorks, said White House coronavirus task force coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx on Today Friday, referring to the onetime epicenter of the pandemic in the nation if not the world.

On Thursday, the hot spots of California, Texas and Florida accounted for one-third of the new cases reported nationwide. Earlier in the week, California passed New York as the state with the highest number of COVID-19 cases in the country, topping 400,000 infections.

Florida found its own sad distinction with respect to New York, topping the Big Apple as the state with the largest single-day increase in new cases, with 15,299 last week.

And in Texas, one overwhelmed county near the border announced this week that it was creating committees to review patients cases and send the worst off home to die by their loved ones.

Unfortunately, Starr County Memorial Hospital has limited resources and our doctors are going to have to decide who receives treatment, and who is sent home to die by their loved ones, County Judge Eloy Vera wrote on Facebook post Thursday. This is what we did not want our community to experience.

On Wednesday, Birx warned about rising crises in 11 cities, hoping to spur effective action before the pandemic overran efforts there. She said Baltimore, Cleveland, Columbus, Indianapolis, Las Vegas, Miami, Minneapolis, Nashville, New Orleans, Pittsburgh and St. Louis need to take aggressive steps immediately to avoid becoming the next hot spots.

Until you can see that explosion, its hard for people to understand how deeply you have to clamp down, Birx said. Thats why we called out the next set of cities where we see early-warning signs, because if you make changes now, you wont become a Phoenix.

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U.S. Coronavirus Update: What We Have Right Now Are Essentially 3 New Yorks, Says Dr. Birx - Deadline

Breden said Denver Public Schools has done a lot of planning at the high school level for core subjects like math, English and science but she hasnt seen as much coordination around art and music, which typically involves the sharing of supplies or instruments.

The state has advised cohorts as just one precautionary step districts should take for students to return to school during the COVID-19 pandemic, said Dr. Alexis Burakoff, a medical epidemiologist with the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment.

What we're hoping is that schools can limit the number of people that each student and staff member interacts with ideally to kind of one closed group so that if there is an illness among a member of that group, it's very clear who has been exposed, she said.

Summer child care is an example Burakoff used to compare the potential spread of COVID-19. If a positive case was found in places where staff and children mixed freely throughout a daycare, the entire location had to stop operations and every individual had to quarantine. In cases where children and staff were around the same 10 people in a single classroom, then only those 10 people had to quarantine for 14 days and the rest of the daycare could run as normal.

Our hope is that by using this strategy, we are both minimizing the spread of disease because we're limiting the number of contacts that each person has, but also really minimizing disruptions to schools, Burakoff said.

As an added layer of defense, the state also asks districts to have people wear face masks and practice social distancing, too.

Burakoff gets how cohorts are a challenge logistically, especially for older students, but she said its important for schools to be creative in how they strategize with things like block schedules.

We understand that this cohorting does not extend to what people do at home and on the weekends, et cetera, and so the best thing we can do is just continue to educate our communities about being safe outside of school hours, she said. What it can really do is help the response in the event that there are illnesses in school, which we know that there will be.

Sarah Christensen Fu of Centennial, a parent of three kids who attend STEM School Highlands Ranch, is fortunate to work from home and have the flexibility to choose how her kids get their education this year. Although the school has an option to do in-person learning or a hybrid of virtual and in-person, Christensen Fu said her kids would be doing online only.

With this pandemic spiking, schools being reopened just seems really rushed, she said. I do feel like most of the people I know are really excited to get their kids back to routine and so I feel like a little stodgier, like a nervous Nellie Going all into a big building seems like a bad choice.

Her 11-year-old son isnt happy about the decision. Christensen Fu said it feels like a choice between her kids seeing their friends or their grandparents.

Nicole Gates, the mother of two boys in Littleton Public Schools, also works from home and wants to get back to the normal routine. She realizes, however, that may not be an option this year.

There's part of me that thinks if we just have to put the school year on hold and it starts in January after a vaccine is available or if they say, Hey, your kid's going to graduate a year later than you thought because this school year, we can't figure it out and we don't know how to keep everyone safe, I'm fine with it, she said. This is a pandemic. We haven't seen anything like it in a hundred years.

So far, her family hasnt come in contact with the virus even with her sons participation in summer activities like baseball and hockey. While it would be nice to send her kids to school a couple of times a week in small groups, Gates understands why teachers would be concerned about their safety and possible exposure.

How do you feel about Colorado schools reopening? Tell us.

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What Is Cohorting? And Is It The Cure For Colorado's Coronavirus School Worries? - Colorado Public Radio

The BDN is making the most crucial coverage of the coronavirus pandemic and its economic impact in Maine free for all readers. Click here for all coronavirus stories. You can join others committed to safeguarding this vital public service by purchasing a subscription or donating directly to the newsroom.

Another 26 cases of the new coronavirus have been reported in Maine, health officials said Friday.

Fridays report brings the total coronavirus cases reported in Maine to 3,757. Of those, 3,357 have been confirmed positive, while 400 were classified as probable cases, according to the Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

The agency revised Thursdays cumulative total to 3,731, down from 3,737, meaning there was a net increase of 20 over the previous days report, state data show. As the Maine CDC continues to investigate previously reported cases, some are determined to have not been the coronavirus or coronavirus cases not involving Mainers. Those are removed from the states cumulative total.

No new deaths were reported Friday, leaving the statewide death toll at 118. Nearly all deaths have been Mainers over age 60.

So far, 378 Mainers have been hospitalized at some point with COVID-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Of those, 12 people are currently hospitalized, with nine in critical care and three on ventilators.

Meanwhile, 20 more people have recovered from the coronavirus, bringing total recoveries to 3,259. That means there are 380 active and probable cases in the state, which is unchanged from Thursday.

Heres the latest on the coronavirus and its impact on Maine.

In January, we surveyed readers on the political issues they cared about most going into the election year of 2020. Now, were asking again after the coronavirus upended the Maine economy and most of our lives. Michael Shepherd, BDN

State and local coronavirus aid is left out of a new pandemic relief package floated by Republicans in the U.S. Senate, but Sen. Susan Collins of Maine said on Friday she is hopeful it will be included in a final measure. David Marino Jr. and Michael Shepherd, BDN

A water district in Maine is collecting sewage samples for testing to determine the prevalence of the coronavirus based on whats being flushed down the toilet. The Associated Press

A bedroom community outside Portland is now the town with the highest rate of coronavirus cases in the state, more than a month after the state began releasing town-by-town coronavirus case data. Falmouth, with about 12,500 residents, had recorded 152 cases of the coronavirus as of July 12, translating into about 12 cases for every 1,000 residents. Caitlin Andrews, BDN

As of Friday evening, the coronavirus has sickened 4,097,270 people in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands and the U.S. Virgin Islands, as well as caused 145,063 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University of Medicine.

Read more here:

July 24 evening update: The latest on the coronavirus and Maine - Bangor Daily News

Their mother Noehmi Esquivel, 39, and their father Carlos Garcia, 44, both died after fighting the coronavirus, the family confirmed to CNN.

Esquivel was taken to the hospital on July 2, and ended up dying the same day, her brother, Jacob Mendoza, told CNN.

"My mom spoke to her and told her that it was okay for her to go home ... and not to worry about Carlos and the boys," Mendoza said.

"[She] prayed over her in Jesus name and she passed away over the phone with my mom talking to her."

Then, just 11 days later, her husband, Carlos, landed in the hospital because of kidney problems. His family said he was recovering from coronavirus and it aggravated medical problems he was already having.

"He was barely recuperating ... [but] when he went into the hospital, he was doing well," Mendoza said.

On July 17, his fourth day in the hospital, Mendoza said Garcia's condition unexpectedly worsened.

"We had just gotten off the phone with him, and he sounded perfectly fine. He sounded like there was nothing wrong with him. And it surprised us when we got the call around one o'clock in the morning that he had passed away," he said.

Both Esquivel and Garcia had diabetes and other underlying conditions.

"It has just been very rough on us, because both of them, you know, they both had to die in the hospital by themselves because of this whole coronavirus pandemic," Mendoza said.

His father's funeral is on Tuesday at The Promise Church of Houston.

See the original post here:

They lost their mom and dad to coronavirus -- 15 days apart - CNN

Birthday spoiler alert: If you want your mask to be a barrier to coronavirus transmission, you should not be able to blow out candles while wearing it. Florin Cristian Ailenei/EyeEm via Getty Images hide caption

Birthday spoiler alert: If you want your mask to be a barrier to coronavirus transmission, you should not be able to blow out candles while wearing it.

Each week, we answer "frequently asked questions" about life during the coronavirus crisis. If you have a question you'd like us to consider for a future post, email us at goatsandsoda@npr.org with the subject line: "Weekly Coronavirus Questions."

Can you blow out a candle with your mask on?

That question became ... a thing ... this month when Bill Nye (aka "The Science Guy") made a TikTok.

In it, he dons various types of masks that people are using during the pandemic, as he puts it, to "prevent particles from my respiratory system from getting into the air and then into your respiratory system" in other words, a way of limiting transmission of viral particles. Nye attempts to blow out a candle about a foot away a simulation for everyday respiratory exchanges and interactions such as coughs and conversations.

Most of his masks do the job (except for a knitted scarf), though in other versions of this experiment and in tests conducted by NPR mask wearers, a bandanna over the mouth usually allowed the wearer to extinguish the flame.

Basically, you want the flame to stay alive, says Amy Price, a senior research scientist at Stanford University's Anesthesia Informatics and Media Laboratory. Otherwise, it can be a sign that the mask isn't acting as a strong enough barrier. If you can blow out the flame easily while wearing a mask, she says, there's too much air exchange between you and the outside world.

Still, she cautions that the test isn't foolproof. Outside variables, such as the type of candle and your personal lung strength can affect the outcome. So take your results with a big, big grain of salt, Price says.

Abraar Karan, a physician at Harvard Medical School, notes: "Being able to blow a candle out may be some measure of how well particles can exit your mask, [but it's] unclear to me how reliable that is as a proxy for small aerosols exiting with normal speaking or coughing."

Nonetheless, Price says she believes the candle test can be a good way to suss out the masks that are clearly not doing their job the dead giveaway cases.

"It's an OK rule of thumb," she says. "It isn't scientific, but it's a pretty good estimate, especially when you combine it with other [tactics] and recommendations" regarding mask quality.

So what's in an effective mask?

A group of researchers at Stanford Medicine is working with the World Health Organization to figure just that out the team has helped roll out new guidelines for mask efficacy and safety along with WHO. And even these researchers agree that for most people, identifying a good, protective mask from a bad one can be confusing.

"People have no standards when they go to buy masks," says Price, who is a member of the team.

And it's not as if you can test the mask yourself. Renting mask-testing equipment costs more than $1,000, and it's not as if such devices are on the shelf in your neighborhood medical equipment store.

To make sure you're not flying mask-blind, it's important to keep abreast of WHO and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention mask guidelines, which are regularly updated. Right now, Price says masks with three layers are the recommendation.

And there are some mask facts and hacks that can be helpful.

Karan says one of the most fundamental things to get right about your mask is fit.

You want your mask to fit snugly over your mouth and nostrils, up to the nose bridge, with little excess air escaping from the sides when you exhale. But you also want to be able to breathe, he explains. A good rule is as snug as you can go without finding it hard to breathe.

Make sure you get this right, he urges. One study found that "gaps due to improper fit resulted in over a 60% decrease in the filtration efficiency."

Then there's the question of mask material.

Price suggests two ways to test if your mask is crafted with a good weave: You can pick up a Foldscope microscope (they're made of paper and cost about $30 for a do-it-yourself kit) to zoom into the texture of the mask the weave should look thick and relatively opaque.

Or you can also just hold your mask up to a bright light source or use your phone flashlight. "Stretch it," Price recommends. "Can you see right through it?" If you can, that's a bad sign.

You can also check labels for preferable fabrics and materials; recent studies have shown that 100% cotton with high to moderate yarn count (that is, a heavier, coarser yarn) performed best in mask tests conducted, Karan says. While the process for figuring out yarn count can be a little tricky, the general rule is the thicker the fabric, the higher the yarn count.

"In short, you want a mask that fits you well, and that has cotton with high yarn counts and possibly with multiple layers, which many masks today do offer," Karan says.

Once you've found a great-fitting mask fashioned with a breathable and protective material, Price says her lab has identified some simple DIY steps to fortify your mask.

"You can make a small slit (between mask layers) and add paper towels," Price offers. "Or buy yourself some OLY fun (a craft product) and place a layer in the mask this can bring it up to a surgical mask's level of protectiveness."

Adding a static charge to the outer layer of a polyester mask by rubbing it with a latex glove for 30 seconds can also be effective, Price adds. The reason: COVID-19 particles have a charge, so adding static can help create an extra layer of repelling protection.

With the surge in mask demand, there are also new market conditions to navigate.

"If you're going to buy a mask, look at it carefully, Price says. "Don't buy things that claim to be 'specially treated' with copper or other irons that kill bacteria." The virus isn't bacterial, and those treatments haven't been proven to be effective with the novel coronavirus as of yet, she says.

Finally, if you want to make a homemade mask, Price emphasizes the power of improvisation and creativity.

Indeed, research shows that even the most surprising materials such as a pair of pantyhose can boost the power of your mask.

Pranav Baskar is a freelance journalist and U.S. national born in Mumbai.

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Does The Candle Test Tell You If Your Mask Is Doing A Good Job? : Goats and Soda - NPR

The drag is felt acutely in tourist destinations dependent on air travel, like the Canary Islands, hundreds of miles from mainland Spain. Airlines carried 15 million visitors to the archipelago last year, but the flight capacity this month is just 30 percent of what it was a year ago.

Italy has tried to promote national tourism by issuing a so-called holiday bonus, a 150-euro voucher per Italian for lodging, up to 500 per family. Dario Franceschini, the minister of culture and tourism, told Parliament this month that about 400,000 vouchers had been issued, worth 183 million in total. According to Italian news reports, however, only a small fraction of hotels accept them.

Greece, though suffering less from the pandemic than either Italy or Spain, has still seen scant evidence of a rebound in tourism. In the first 12 days of July, passenger traffic at the Athens airport was down 75 percent from a year ago.

Though all of the countries of southern Europe have emerged from lockdown, new outbreaks there and quarantine orders elsewhere have added hurdles. This month, Britain said that people coming from Portugal, among other countries, would be forced to quarantine on arrival, a move that essentially choked off British tourism there.

Outbreaks have also occurred around major tourism hubs like Barcelona, where about three million residents were told on Friday to stay indoors to help contain the coronavirus.

Carlos Garca Pastor, the marketing director of Logitravel Group, a Spanish travel operator that had revenue of about 800 million last year, said that his company expected earnings to drop at least 50 percent this year.

The final result, he said, will really depend on how many new outbreaks there are.

See more here:

Trump Administration Aims to Block New Funding for Coronavirus Testing and Tracing - The New York Times

Since late March, travelers to Massachusetts have been asked to self-quarantine for 14 days. Soon, failure to comply, or failure to show proof of a negative COVID-19 test prior to arriving in the state, could result in fines.

Gov. Charlie Baker announced the new travel requirements, including a Massachusetts Travel Form for anyone coming to the state, unless theyre coming from a lower risk state or meet certain limited exemptions, during a Friday press conference. This includes Massachusetts residents who are returning to the state after traveling elsewhere and international travelers.

Every traveler coming to Massachusetts no matter where theyre from has a responsibility to help keep COVID-19 out of the commonwealth, Baker said.

The new travel order goes into effect on Aug. 1. Anyone who doesnt follow the new rules is subject to a fine of $500 per day.

At this time of year, many people are traveling to and from Massachusetts for vacation or in some cases getting ready to come back to school, the governor said. Weve already seen an uptick in activity at Logan Airport.

There are a few exceptions to the order. These include people (including returning Massachusetts residents) coming from nearby states, including the rest of New England Connecticut, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont plus New York, New Jersey, and Hawaii, as theyre considered lower risk.

Other exceptions include people who commute outside the state regularly for work or school, people who are provided medical care from a Massachusetts-based doctor, military, and those who provide critical infrastructure cyber security, first responders, and emergency communications, among others.

People who are just passing through Massachusetts on their way to somewhere else are also exempt, the rules say.

All others, age 18 and above, plus unaccompanied minors, must complete the travel form before they enter Massachusetts, or when they do. This does include students when they return for the fall semester, according to a press release.

Travelers are exempt from the 14-day quarantine if they can show proof that they received a negative result from a COVID-19 test and the sample was taken no longer than 72 hours prior to their arrival in Massachusetts. If they took a test and are awaiting the results upon their arrival in Massachusetts, they have to quarantine until they receive their negative result, the regulations say.

The form mandates that the traveler must agree to the regulations, and must agree with one of four quarantine options:

The form also mandates that the traveler must agree that they have not had any COVID-19 symptoms, have not been in close contact within the last two weeks with someone who has it or is suspected of having it, and that they will wear a mask in public and maintain standard social distancing of six feet, according to the guidance.

While in quarantine, travelers must not have contact with anyone other than those theyve traveled with for two weeks, must not be out in public, must not let anyone else into their quarantine area, must have food delivered, and should have the correct amount of face coverings for everyone, the guidelines say. They can only leave to seek urgent medical care.

Prior to arrival, travelers will be notified of the order by airlines, bus companies, and train travel companies, as well as Airbnb, hotel, lodging operators, and major travel agencies, Baker said. He said employers are discouraged from sending workers outside of the lower risk states. Roadways will have signage informing drivers, too.

Lodging operators like hotels and Airbnb will be required to inform guests about this order at the time of booking and arrival, and [are] encouraged to communicate this information on their websites and on site, Lt. Gov. Karyn Polito said.

Compliance is based on an honor system, Baker said, saying that it has worked pretty well.

State Department of Transportation Secretary and CEO Stephanie Pollack said theres been a gradual but steady increase since March, both on our roads and at Logan Airport.

In July, traffic measurements at key areas were just 10 to 15 percent lower this year compared to last year. Passenger counts at Logan have also increased, though theyre still much lower than last year, according to Pollack.

Massachusetts residents are increasingly headed out to other states, and travelers from other states are increasingly coming to Massachusetts, she said. All such travelers have a responsibility to help the commonwealth keep transmission rates as low as possible.

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Mass. has changed its coronavirus travel rules. Heres what to know. - Boston.com

It could be a rough few days for those planning to be outdoors in Oregon.

Between extreme heat, wildfires, crowds and coronavirus, some officials are concerned about the next few days around Oregon as we approach the midpoint of summer.

On Friday, the National Weather Service issued heat advisories around the state, as Portland Fire & Rescue issued a burn ban for Multnomah County, and several national forests warned of increased fire danger.

All of that comes on top of public health officials continual warnings about the spread of COVID-19 as cases remain high including Gov. Kate Browns recent mandate on wearing face masks in crowded outdoor places.

READ MORE: How to stay cool and coronavirus safe this weekend

Some of the most dangerous weather conditions will be in southwest Oregon, where the National Weather Service is predicting temperatures as high as 105 in Medford on Sunday, with dry air and lightning expected over the region Monday.

Brett Lutz, lead forecaster for the National Weather Service in Medford, said that statistically speaking, the last week of July and first week of August are the most dangerous for wildfires in the region, and that conditions are now lining up to continue that trend.

Lightning ignited fires is the bottom line, and possibly a lot of them, Lutz said. Id be concerned if I had outdoor plans Monday.

The forecast is still evolving, he said, and things could change for southwest Oregon including the possibility of sporadic rainfall in some areas but as it stands, the latter part of Monday is a big concern, Lutz said.

Aside from heat, lightning, and crowds, late July is also peak mosquito season for some of the states most popular lakes and backpacking destinations. Theres also still a high risk of drownings, officials warned, especially in deep lakes and fast-moving rivers, though recreation areas around bodies of water also happen to be some of the most popular this summer.

At Oregon state parks, crowds have swelled this year on the Oregon coast and at parks situated along lakes and rivers. At those places, rangers have consistently seen holiday level crowding, parks department spokesman Chris Havel said, up from the normal weekend crowds they see this time of year.

Thats caused more concern when it comes to the coronavirus pandemic. While risk of transmission outdoors remains low, researchers say the virus can still be passed between people at close proximity, especially in crowded places like public restrooms, viewpoints or narrow trails.

Though Oregon now requires face coverings when social distancing isnt possible outdoors, Oregon state parks officials have opted against strict enforcement in favor of education a strategy that has sometimes led to angry conflicts between visitors and rangers. Parks could shut down later this summer, Havel said, if people remain lax about simple precautions like face coverings and social distance.

Thats probably the easiest thing thats under your control right now, just do it, he said about wearing face masks. I cant do anything about mosquitoes, or heat or lightning strikes causing fires. Heres one thing we can do.

While state parks have been busy, another hot summer destination in Oregon, the Columbia River Gorge, has been a little quieter than usual. Thats because a lot of it remains closed.

Popular destinations like Multnomah Falls, Crown Point and the Historic Columbia River Highway have been closed since late March due to the coronavirus pandemic, and theres no immediate plan to reopen them to the public. Thats in addition to places still closed due to damage by the 2017 Eagle Creek fire, like the popular Eagle Creek Trail and Oneonta Gorge.

While places like Rooster Rock State Park and Wachlella Falls remain busy, officials said, the Columbia River Gorge as a whole is quieter than ever.

Stan Hinatsu, recreation staff officer for the U.S. Forest Service in the Columbia Gorge, said agencies hope to begin reopening the scenic highway later this summer, along with some of the waterfall day-use areas. It could happen piecemeal or all at once he said, depending on public health concerns and crowding, and could come with additional precautions put in place for visitors.

We just want to make sure that when we do open, were able to do so in a way that maintains public health and safety, Hinatsu said. Its likely things will look different when we do.

After months spent trying to navigate the pandemic, these heat advisories and wildfire warnings are much more familiar territory for Oregons outdoor recreation agencies, who have long-standing practices in place to warn people about campfires and water safety.

Those who want to avoid the dangers posed by nature and crowds this weekend should be prepared or simply stay at home, they said, and wait for more favorable conditions to go outside. Outdoor recreation can still be safe, as long as people show up with a bit of caution.

I think the most important thing is to try to stay in tune with what the forecast is and plan accordingly, Lutz said. While it seems like a concerning situation, and it definitely is, I think if people are smart and pay attention to the forecast and keep an eye to the sky, they can remain pretty safe.

--Jamie Hale; jhale@oregonian.com; 503-294-4077; @HaleJamesB

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Heat, crowds, fire, coronavirus all causes for concern in Oregon outdoors this weekend - OregonLive

By Spencer Custodio | July 23, 2020

While it seems that the number of people hospitalized for Coronavirus in Orange County stabilized this week, there is concern that daily death counts seem to be creeping up, now well into the double digits with 22 people reported as killed by Covid on Thursday.

Orange Health Care Agency officials on Thursday also confirmed that they are increasingly transferring Covid patients from hospitals into skilled nursing facilities.

Editors Note: As Orange Countys only nonprofit & nonpartisan newsroom, Voice of OC brings you the best, most comprehensive local Coronavirus news absolutely free. No ads, no paywalls. We need your help. Please, make a tax-deductible donation today to support your local news.

An unknown number of Orange Countys coronavirus hospital patients have been moved to long term care facilities and skilled nursing facilities as hospitalization numbers ticked up the past couple weeks.

Yes, hospitalized COVID-19 positive patients are being discharged to long term care facilities. The OC Health Care Agency (HCA) does not track individual transfers. However, when a hospitalized COVID-19 positive patient is transferred to a Skilled Nursing Facility (SNF), that patient would be subtracted from the hospitalized count (by the sending hospital) and added to the SNF count via the state daily reporting, HCA staff said in a Thursday email.

A daily situation report from the county Office of Emergency Medical Services on Thursday shows theres been an increase of over 500 virus-positive patients in skilled nursing facility cases since the beginning of the month to 1,837 cases. The report doesnt note which cases are transfers and which ones are virus cases originating from the facilities.

At a Thursday news conference, OC interim health officer Dr. Clayton Chau said he hasnt heard of any surges at the skilled nursing facilities.

In normal times, Chau said, a patient gets into an acute hospital and the next level of care that they need is a skilled nursing facility, then the hospital, as well as the family and their insurance company, will try and find a skilled nursing facility that is appropriate to place people.

As far as I know, I have not heard any surge in skilled nursing facilities, Chau said. Ive not heard staff reporting that weve had an issue yet.

UC Irvine epidemiologist Andrew Noymer said the transfers to nursing facilities could explain why hospitalizations are remaining relatively steady.

So that could explain why all the hospital numbers looked like they plateaued, Noymer said in a Thursday phone interview.

But, Noymer said, the deaths continue to increase.

Theres no shirking the deaths, I mean 22 deaths today, Noymer said. I know the death reporting is clunky but the seven-day average is 2.1 percent per day.

When deaths are reported, they can span a window of up to eight days, the Health Care Agency notes on its website.

So thats the number that Ive been watching and Ive been doing seven-day averages precisely so we dont go crazy over single day jumps because those are just reporting issues, Noymer said.

Meanwhile, the virus has now killed 543 people out of 32,648 confirmed cases, according to the county Health Care Agency.

There are 690 people hospitalized, including 233 in intensive care units.

Over 380,000 tests have been conducted throughout OC, which is home to roughly 3.2 million people.

Dr. Paul Yost, whos an anesthesiologist at St. Josephs Hospital in Orange, said it would be helpful to know how many hospital cases are transferred to skilled nursing facilities so the overall picture of the countys healthcare system can be better understood.

Yost, the CalOptima board chairman, also noted the current system wasnt designed for a pandemic.

Our whole healthcare system is not designed something like this a pandemic that strikes a large percentage of the population, he said. Its designed around providing high quality care around things like heart surgeries but a global pandemic, its not designed for.

Noymer said he cant predict which direction OC heads from here, based on the recent patterns.

So heres the thing, were basically treading water. When I look at the OC numbers the past few days, I see a county thats not changing very much. And compared to three weeks ago, were worse. But compared to last week, were holding steady. So you can say were about to turn the corner and do better or take the plunge into a precipice. And I cant tell you exactly which of the two it is.

Heres the latest on the virus numbers across Orange County from county data:

Spencer Custodio is a Voice of OC staff reporter. You can reach him at scustodio@voiceofoc.org. Follow him on Twitter @SpencerCustodio

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Is Orange County Turning The Corner On Coronavirus or Headed Off a Cliff? A Closer Look at the Numbers - Voice of OC