As flies to wanton boys are we to gods/ They kill us for their sport -Thomas Hardy

The crisis of governance that afflicts Pakistan is multi-dimensional; its causes are many and deep-seated; and it pervades all aspects of national life.

Having identified the main symptoms and dimensions of this crisis in my last article (March 28), it would be pertinent to probe its underlying causes and structural underpinnings. Although there may be sector-specific problems, this article seeks to focus on some of the generic issues that lie at the root of the problem.

Political uncertainty and turbulence have plagued Pakistan since its inception. Fortified with the vision and ideals of the Quaid-e-Azam in the early years, the new-born country was able to tide over its teething problems despite the cynical indifference of the departing colonial rulers and sinister hostility of its irredentist neighbour. However, since the untimely demise of its founding father, the country has been oscillating between democratic and authoritarian forms of government and helplessly groping for a stable, progressive and truly representative polity.

Poor quality of political leadership, coupled with self-serving machinations of the establishment, have prevented genuine democracy from striking deep roots in the country, while the midwifery of state organs to promote vested rather than public interest has undermined the rule of law and good governance.

At the heart of the crisis of governance lies a polarised polity, marked by vertical cleavages between the rich and the poor, the privileged and the underprivileged, the dominant elites and the faceless masses on the one hand, and horizontal divisions along ethnic, tribal, sectarian, and political lines on the other. The stratified structure of society, together with the failure of state institutions to enforce rule of law, has obstructed the social and economic development of the country.

The social and state structure in the country, modelled on the colonial pattern of master and subject, has not changed even after independence. The relationship between the ruler and the ruled assumes different forms in political, social, economic and administrative settings but remains unchanged in its essence and substance. The wielders of power in different spheres compete with one another for parochial gain but are united in the furtherance of common class interests. Barring a few exceptions, political, social and economic power remains vested in closely-knit personal and family networks, to the utter exclusion of the silent, suffering majority of people.

The force of public opinion, on the other hand, remains weak, fragile and unsure of itself. It is not so well articulated through mechanisms within the general public to be able to exert pressure on the multiple and mutually reinforcing centres of power and restrain them from sacrificing public good at the altar of personal or class interest. The self-styled leaders of public opinion have developed their own class interests on the periphery of the centres of power and act as safety valves for letting off steam rather than serving as catalysts for mobilising the people.

The civil society itself is marred by lack of awareness of common goals and collective action. There is a great proclivity towards individualistic pursuits and self-interest. The social fabric is riven with ethnic, sectarian and social cleavages. As a result, people are not able to coalesce for the pursuit of common objectives. The civil society could rightly be described as a sack of potatoes. The thwarted awareness of civic rights and responsibilities among the populace lies at the root of the malaise.

That is what keeps rule of law from striking deep roots into the soil of this country. That is what makes it an empty slogan rather than a real, vibrant force protecting people against the depredations of power. That is what encourages the strong and discourages the weak; that is what makes the rich richer and the poor poorer; that is what leads to the abuse of women and children; that is what makes the plunder of national resources possible.

Rule of law is more honoured in the breach than in the observance. In the first place, there is no dearth of laws that are discriminatory in nature and have been framed over the years to promote and protect the vested interests. Numerous laws have been enacted to serve immediate and short-term objectives and without due deliberation. The speed and gusto with which we framed some laws of the land must have made Lord Macaulay revolve in his grave with an awful sense of irony.

Second, the enforcement of laws has also been scandalously weak, partisan and discriminatory. Those who can buy off or pressurise law enforcers slip through the net. The reach of the long arm of law does not go beyond the weak and the underprivileged. Those trapped in legal processes slug through inordinate delays in disposal of cases and are forced to pander to the insatiable avarice of the custodians of the law.

Last but not the least, rampant corruption and favouritism have crowded out merit and competitiveness in all matters concerning government dispensation, be it recruitment or promotions, award of contracts or economic incentives, disposal of state land or public procurement. A culture of nepotism has become the order of the day and the concept of merit-based competition a cry in the wilderness.

The author is a former cabinet secretary.

Email: [emailprotected]

Originally posted here:
Anatomy of misgovernance - The News International

NASHVILLE, TN We were warned but stuck our heads in the sand and didnt see the pandemic coming. Suddenly we found ourselves at war against an invisible enemy. The first casualty was the truth.

It will all be over by Easter. We have plenty of PPEs. African Americans are immune. The virus only hits old people. It wont tank the economy. And so on.

The amount of bull thats been shoveled for public consumption is greater the higher up the chain of command you go. Nobody can beat the President for tripe and outright chicanery. Governor Bill Lee followed close behind, apparently believing what Washington was telling him and by telling us the feds were going to provide enough medical supplies to handle the crisis if we needed them. We needed them and they didnt supply them. They didnt have any.

Then there was Mayor Cooper who told reporters that we had plenty of resources to beat the virus. And the ever-optimistic Dr. Alex Jahangir, who, after being asked several times How many test kits do you have? eventually evinced that he was happy about the number. It took him three weeks to get happy.

The lack of candor from official sources has created a credibility gap on top of a public health crisis. Officials seem to be doing better lately with the truth. Now they are telling us social distancing has flattened the infection curve, so maybe there is reason for optimism.

Should we believe them? There are two competing models out there, one by Vanderbilt University epidemiologists and another by University of Washington researchers at theInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation(IHME), a global health research center.

Both models used the same data from Wuhan, China, where the pandemic began, and both say it will last much longer if social distancing is stopped too soon. But they differ by several weeks when they predict the peak will be reached in Tennessee. One says we will reach the peak in April; the other says May or even June.

A Vanderbilt University Health Policy expert told the Tribune that the two teams made some different assumptions when they constructed their models. The IHME model predicted an earlier peak by assuming Tennessee would keep the number of deaths low as doctors in China did in Wuhan. The Vanderbilt team assumed Tennessee would have a comparable number of hospitalized patients to Wuhan.

But by grafting the Wuhan experience onto Tennessee, the IHME model essentially makes an even more optimistic assumption than our optimistic scenarioand thus arrives at that peak earlier, said Dr. John Graves, Professor of Health Policy at Vanderbilt University.

Bad or incomplete data are two reasons why scientific predictions can be quite different. With COVID-19 it comes back to the lack of test kits. The way scientists accurately predict the spread of disease is by looking for it randomly in a population. If you only test sick people, as we did in the U.S. because we didnt have enough tests, you wont get an accurate picture. And most importantly, you wont get a handle on the number of asymptomatic carriers of the virus who can spread it but do not show symptoms.

So without good data, health policies like quarantines and stay-at-home orders are responding blindly and are likely to be ineffective or at the very least inefficient. Resources can be placed where they are most needed if you know where the disease is spreading fastest.

So, widespread testing as well as social distancing, isolation, and quarantine should be part and parcel of a good public health response to an epidemic like COVID-19.We did not do that in the U.S. and now we have more COVID-19 victims than any other country in the world.

As of April 18, 6,762 have tested positive, 719 people in Tennessee have been hospitalized with the disease, and 145 people have died. Graves and his colleagues say lifting restrictions too soon would keep doubling serious cases every few days until by mid-May 50,000 people would need to be hospitalized.

Only a fraction of the people who have been infected have been tested, said Graves. He said a sustained drop in cases is necessary before social distancing should be relaxed. The model that his Vanderbilt colleagues created for COVID-19 is specific to Tennessee.

We have to think about this like a multi-stage relay race where social distancing can begin to pass off to the next leg of the relay and that means reliable and speedy testing and contact tracing. Absent that we risk have an epidemic surge out of control once again, he said.

Health authorities are talking about testing more widely but the medical protocol to only test symptomatic patients is still in place throughout Davidson County and throughout most of the country. The risk of a worsening epidemic will continue until we find out exactly who is positive. Without knowing that all-important information, any prediction about when the peak has been reached or if we can go back to work, or whether the epidemic will return later is impossible to know for sure.

Vanderbilt researchers recently updated their model and it shows the virus slowing down in some regions but not in others.

Governor Lee is talking about slowly opening up the state to get the economy running again. We will address these issues in an upcoming article. Stay tuned to the next chapter in the COVID-19 story.

See the original post here:
The Anatomy of a Pandemic - tntribune.com

ALL-UMFKUMPInursing-31-19

Nursing student Sam Carpenter takes the blood pressure of fellow student Sarah Sutherland on Sept. 11, 2018, in the nursing lab at the University of Maine at Presque Isle. UMPI and the University of Maine at Fort Kent collaborate to offer UMFK's nursing program to students at the Presque Isle campus.(Staff photo/Anthony Brino)

Nursing student Sam Carpenter takes the blood pressure of fellow student Sarah Sutherland on Sept. 11, 2018, in the nursing lab at the University of Maine at Presque Isle. UMPI and the University of Maine at Fort Kent collaborate to offer UMFK's nursing program to students at the Presque Isle campus.(Staff photo/Anthony Brino)

Students in the University of Maine at Fort Kent nursing program, both on the Fort Kent campus and at the University of Maine at Presque Isle, will have a high-tech new way to learn about human anatomy when classes resume after the COVID-19 state of emergency.

PRESQUE ISLE, Maine Students in the University of Maine at Fort Kent nursing program, both on the Fort Kent campus and at the University of Maine at Presque Isle, will have a high-tech new way to learn about human anatomy when classes resume after the COVID-19 state of emergency.

The universities have acquired two state-of-the art Anatomage tables. These tables, used by the worlds top medical schools and hospitals and featured by TEDTalks and PBS, are described as the most technologically advanced 3D visualization systems for anatomy and physiology education.

We are pleased to have such a powerful teaching tool available for our professors and students, said Erin Soucy, UMFK dean of undergraduate nursing. Rather than seeing a picture in a textbook, students see a realistic, 3-D picture of body systems, organs, and even cells. Learning is an interactive process and students remember more when they can link content to a visual image.

UMFKs bachelor of science in nursing program, which is also delivered on the UMPI campus, offers nursing classes, labs, and clinicals and strives to deliver as many hands-on and high-tech activities as possiblefrom mock hospital suites filled with equipment theyll see in a real hospital setting to human patient simulator mannequins.

The program delivered at UMPI is designed to meet the needs of place-bound students those who arent able to travel to Fort Kent to complete the BSN degree due to family and work responsibilities as well as to address nursing workforce challenges.

UMPI President Ray Rice said, This will give students an absolute advantage in terms of understanding anatomy and body systems and being able to apply that knowledge once they are in the career field.

The highly interactive tables features a life-sized display, touch-screen technology and 3D imagery, allowing users to view photorealistic anatomical structures layer by layer and from every angle. These structures are based on thousands of real human cases that have been digitized in the highest possible resolution.

Both tables have arrived at their respective campuses and the nursing faculty are preparing them for use in class.

Having access to this state-of-the-art medical technology has a profound impact on nursing students, as well as students enrolled in all UMFK/UMPI programs, said Stacy Thibodeau, UMFK assistant professor of nursing who delivers classes at UMPI. The incorporation of the Anatomage Table into our lectures and labs allows for a virtual learning experience of tomorrow, to be experienced in todays UMFK/UMPI classroom. This is an exceptional learning and diagnostic resource that is FDA approved.

For information about the UMFK BSN program, call 207-834-7600 or email umfklife@maine.edu. To learn more about the program delivered on the UMPI campus, call 207-768-9532 or email umpi-admissions@maine.edu.

Submitted by the Community and Media Relations Office of the University of Maine at Presque Isle.

Thank you for reading your 4 free articles this month. To continue reading, and support local, rural journalism, please subscribe.

Continued here:
3D anatomy tables to boost UMPI-UMFK nursing program - The County

-This past week, in one of Pro Football Networks dynasty fantasy football leagues, a trade went down that caused quite the controversy. League members and website lead editors, Ryan Gosling and Corey Ashburn, decided to move two young quarterbacks in a 12-team, Superflex, full point PPR league. The trade included a number of pieces but focused around Dak Prescott and Carson Wentz. Was it a fair trade? Can you compare an emphasis on value to the confidence of a teams offense?

By breaking down the anatomy of the trade, we get a better understanding of the mindset of both owners involved. Can fandom doom a fantasy team? Or is value overrated? These are questions that this trade tries to answer, while we open the discussion to fellow fantasy football enthusiasts. Who won this trade? Well, only time will tell. But lets break down why both owners are pumping their chests in victory.

Before we can break down the trade, it is important to add context. Merely mentioning the players does not give you, the reader, enough information to decide if this move made sense. In this specific league, our rosters consist of the following:

1QB, 1SF, 2RBs, 2WRs, 1TE, 2Flex with 21 bench spots for a total of a 30-man roster.

Both Ryan and Corey were quite active throughout the draft process, with Ashburn implementing an interesting trade back theory. Ryan traded up to get his guy as a strategy.

Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford, Jameis Winston, and Jacoby Brissett

I am a bit worried about my QB depth. If Winston doesnt land a starting spot somewhere this offseason, I could be looking at only two usable QBs this year. I do not like to feel this uncomfortable in a Superflex league.

My running back room is bad. I plan on using my rookie draft capital to correct this, but for now, Im staring at the worst RB group in the league.

Similar to the RBs, my WR depth is not good enough. I love my top four, but if one of them goes down to injury, I will struggle in my flex position. The 2020 WR class is loaded with depth, and I plan on using some draft capital to help this as well.

Looking up and down my roster, there isnt one position that I am worried about. I feel like I have good depth in general, but could use a bonified starting tight end, especially considering this league has a premium at the position.

My wide receiver class is quite young, but they each have a high upside. However, they are all facing some questions marks at the QB position. Will Joe Burrow develop a connection with Boyd, or will he prefer Green? What about Curtis Samuel and his new QB Teddy Bridgewater? Calvin Ridley and Tyler Lockett are both starting caliber, but behind them, there is a concern.

Also, having traded away my first-round rookie pick in this years draft to move up, I dont have any capital to add to my team. My first selection isnt until the beginning of the second round, and there could be a lack of starting-caliber rookies at that point. As some in the sports world would say, I cornered myself into a win now mode.

My top two QBs rival any other group in the league. I love Daks durability, weapons, and rushing ability. Stafford was having a career year before his back injury last season, and I think he can be a top-10 QB for another three to five years if he stays healthy.

My RB1 and starting WRs are awesome. I am high on Sanders this year and landed his handcuff in Boston Scott, so I feel secure with one starting RB spot. My group of Godwin, Allen, Beckham Jr., and Gallup is the best four-some in the league.

My draft capital is what the kids like to call fire. I believe I will be able to land two of the top-three stud RBs in this class at 1.04 and 1.06. Then, I should be able to pick BPA with my three second-round picks.

Before the trade, I liked both my quarterback and running back situations. At QB, I have Matt Ryan, who is as solid as they come, and Carson Wentz. Wentz, although very injury prone, could be a top-10 fantasy weapon if the team decides to give him some weapons. Ryan plays on a team with a terrible defense and could have to air it out often. Pairing him with Calvin Ridley set em up for success.

When looking at my RBs, I have two of the remaining workhorse backs in the league. With so many running back by committees in the NFL, securing both Barkley and Fournette pretty much guarantees production.

Behind my starters, I have two other backs who could be starters next season. Jordan Howard currently has very little competition in Miamis backfield and will likely be paired up with one of the more promising backs coming out of the draft. I still think he has promise and could be a good dump-off option for Fitzpatrick. Henderson is going to be competing for touched with Malcolm Brown in L.A., but I believe he has the talent to become the lead guy.

Continue to the next page to see how the trade process went down.

Continue reading here:
Breaking down the anatomy of a fantasy football dynasty trade | PFN - Pro Football Network

Todays extensive article will evaluate the week that just passed, and examine the health of the S&P 500 advance. Well look both at various credit market metrics, and at the key S&P 500 sectors and ratios. Putting the pieces of the puzzle together will enable us to make profitable trading decisions as the bullish fever is rising. Just how much is that sentiment justified?

Lets start with the S&P 500 itself, and check the weekly and daily perspectives (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

The weekly chart shows how far the rally has reached. The breakdown below the red support zone marking the Dec 2018 lows has been invalidated, and the subsequent bears push lower has failed. Last two weeks brought us higher prices, but the upside momentum decreased in last week as the bears reemerged.

Were the volume behind the upswing larger, it would make the price recovery more credible. Its true that the weekly indicators are by and large on their buy signals, but how much can they be trusted?

Lets check the detailed daily chart to find out.

Fridays session opened with a bullish gap well above the 50% Fibonacci retracement, and while the sellers took price action back to its proximity, the buyers staged a strong comeback in the sessions final hour. Failing that, many of the below bullish-leaning points couldnt have been made.

Encouragingly, it happened on higher volume than what characterized the last two down days. While the volume was slightly higher than that of Tuesdays push higher, it was lower than last Fridays one (that was the day when the 50% Fibonacci retracement was first tested). This raises some doubts about the bulls ability to extend their gains considerably higher in the coming days.

The daily indicators are getting increasingly extended, with both CCI and RSI struggling to keep from rolling over. Stochastics overbought readings will arguably take longer than it is the case with CCI to flash its upcoming sell signal. These increase the likelihood of the S&P 500 taking a breather shortly.

Just like weve seen quite a few bullish gaps in the recent days and early April, bears may respond with some of their own making (and today may be first such day as the S&P 500 futures trade at around 2825 as we speak). Remember, many of those declining days in March were characterized by sudden bursts of buying within the final hour this pattern is not exclusive to the up days since the Mar 23 low.

Not only have prices reached the 50-day moving average thats serving as resistance, but also the lower border of the sizable early March bearish gap, which is reinforced by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at its upper end.

As we move to the credit markets assessment, lets bring up our Thursdays intraday commentary as it remains valid also today and given the S&P 500 closing prices, even more so:

() the credit market metric of high yield corporate bonds to short-term Treasuries keeps trading down. That serves to confirm thin air as the S&P 500 challenges 2800, and actually points to a disconnect between the two markets. And its the bond guys who usually get it right, which is one more reason apart from the fundamental coronavirus fallout, why we expect renewed selling in stocks.

So, what about corporate bonds to Treasuries? While the investment-grade corporate bonds (LQD ETF) keep trading in a tight range much closer to their recent highs than the high-yield ones (HYG ETF), its the riskier ones that should be leading higher in a risk-on rally. Otherwise, it would represent flight to quality along the lines of Treasuries outperformance (SHY and IEI ETFs). In other words, we would still be in a risk-off environment.

The ratio of corporate junk bonds to short-term Treasuries didnt start leading higher on Friday either. Its still trading well below the Fed $2.3T bombshell highs, pointing to the defensive nature of the S&P 500 rally.

Talking short-dated Treasuries, lets see with what kind of veracity they moved lower as the S&P 500 moved above the 50% Fibonacci retracement.

Thats not what we would call a turning point or downside break exactly. Such action supports the notion of risk aversion.

Examination of the S&P 500 performance by various key sectors and their ratios should help us refine the picture.

Well start with the leading metric of risk-taking: the ratio of financials to utilities.

As the ratio appears ready to beat late-March lows and take on the March panic bottom next, it shows that financials as the risk-on asset class are declining relative to the defensive utilities sector.

Are utilities (XLU ETF) really as strong here just as Treasuries would imply? What are the other bright spots in the S&P 500 rally? And what about financials (XLF ETF)? Lets check all three.

Utilities are clearly among the best-performing S&P 500 sectors. As theyre consolidating their post-Fed announcement gains, they havent performed as well as the short-term Treasuries (SHY ETF) or investment-grade corporate bonds (LQD ETF), but still have outperformed the credit markets (HYG and HYD ETFs).

Healthcare is a star performer among the S&P 500 sectors, closing higher than any day in March. While the daily indicators are extended, the volume doesnt warn of an impending reversal.

Having repelled the selling pressure to close the opening gap (just like S&P 500) in the final hour of trading, technology shares are another sector leading the S&P 500 higher. Apart from the extended daily indicators, the key watchout is the volume thats trending down since the second half of March. This shows that the bulls arent as strong as they appear to be. Remember, tops form when theres no one left to buy. Just how close are we to this point?

Financials are clearly lagging behind. Similarly to the leaves that fall off a tree one-by-one as autumn progresses, a stock market rally stalls and rolls over as more and more sectors refuse to move higher. In other words, a rising number of troops dont follow the generals uphill.

Even if the S&P 500 rally goes on a bit longer in the short-term, this constellation doesnt bode well for its prospects. Neither does the weak performance of the energy sector shown below.

Theyre the laggards, and over at Oil Trading Alerts, were making a killing shorting oil as you can see in its most recent Alert. Such a weak performance is a bad omen for stocks, despite the low weight of the energy sector in the index.

Kicking off with the financials-to-utilities ratio, weve have already covered the three top-share S&P 500 sectors (technology, healthcare and financials). But there is one more highly informative ratio to look at. Its the consumer discretionaries to consumer staples.

The caption says it all. The ratio isnt yet trending up, and reveals the badly-shaken consumer. It reflects the stunning drop of Wednesdays retail sales data (changed consumer attitudes and outlook), and doesnt really point to its turnaround in May. Thats similar to what we see in the financial sector banks are raising the loan losses provisions as the pain is slowly but surely cascading through the system. The current earnings projections are also overly optimistic, which goes to show that should stocks keep trading at these levels, theyll become relatively more expensive than in the recent past as the P/E ratio would show. Coming back to the discretionaries to staples, it shows no return of the consumer just yet and highlights caution.

Its totally appropriate to quote our Fridays lengthy analysis:

() how come stocks are showing such strength amid the divergencies and faced with grim fundamental data?

Just as weve seen late last week flattening of the coronavirus curve in some of the hotspots such as NYC, yesterdays unemployment claims (as unprecedented as the figure is) have come below the 6000K+ mark of two prior weeks. Is it a satisfactory flattening of the labor market curve? The bleeding is there,
sizable and without an end in sight really. More layoffs are coming as the cascading through the real economy proceeds. Even the Feds Beige Book dating to April 15 is saying so.

Talking flattening of the coronavirus curve, the news on the ground doesnt fully support the optimism. Tuesday and Wednesday brought us the record number of coronavirus casualties, with 2,364 and 2,371 dead respectively. If thats the new normal, it shows that weve reached no US-wide plateau yet, despite the lockdown in hardest-hit NYC going into effect on Mar 22. Thats quite a few weeks already and thats the case for the overwhelming majority of other states too.

In fact, the lockdown contribution to halting the exponential spread might be exaggerated, as Mark Twain would himself say regarding reports of his death. Take a look at the comparisons to Sweden, where no lockdown has been instituted, and the country remains open for business. The country is faring reasonably well on a per capita basis.

Trump understands the need to reopen the economy, and has earlier in March called for it to happen by Easter. While that hasnt been the case, the idea has gained traction also within Democratic strongholds on the East and West Coasts. While the governors may disagree on timing, theyre moving in the same direction.

This brings us to the catalyst of yesterdays aftermarket upswing in the S&P 500. It has been known already on Wednesday that the President plans to unveil federal guidelines to reopen America for business. And the moment of glory came late yesterday Eastern Time.

But where is the beef, as the memorable Wendys ad says?

The offered guidelines are about letting some US states and employers to do away with most social distancing measures within several weeks. Discussing preconditions and stages of relaxation, the document is exactly what its called a guideline. In other words, its a federal outline.

Please remember that its the States Governors that are responsible for the action on the ground. All the lockdowns have been initiated by Governors, and sometimes even Mayors. None originated at the federal level. While the Trump guidelines are sending an important message, its impact lies in the PR arena as it steals the spotlight while nothing groundbreaking has just yet happened statewide.

While the S&P 500 futures like it and are clinging to most of the overnight gains (trading around 2865 currently), its far from a safe bet that the courage to start returning life to normal wont backfire, and that the US wont experience another sharp increase in new infections. Look no further than to Singapore for a second wave of the outbreak. The situation in Spain is again worsening after allowing the estimated 300K workers to resume their roles.

Coming back to the Opening Up America Again guidelines, do they mean that the consumer is coming back in a big way?

Were doubtful, and had this to say about the recovery prospects:

() In short, the V-shaped recovery is a fantasy. Weve discussed the disruptions in our Sundays special Stock Trading Alert, and encourage you to read it if you hadnt done so already.

Take a look at China overnight, theyve reported the quarterly GDP figures. The drop of -6.8% is unprecedented, and their fixed asset investment and retail sales still keep falling like a hard rock on a year-on-year basis. We fully expect a similar dynamic to play out in the US as well.

These points remain valid, and weve seen resurgence of cases in Japan as the Land of the Rising Sun declares national emergency and the UK extends lockdown for at least another three weeks. Meanwhile in the US, ramped up coronavirus testing on a per capita basis would sharpen the picture

Many governors seek more test kits and testing so as to move forward with reopening the economies. Getting past the peak doesn't mean that new infections and deaths would plummet to zero just like that. The public is waking up to the economic damage, and weve seen certain protests already. These go to show that the return to status quo ante will be a long process where pressing a button doesnt translate into the economy springing back to life overnight. Its not only in the US the uncertainties regarding reopening for business persist globally.

Were in the earnings season, with heavy reporting and guidance this week, and even more so the coming one. Markets optimistic assessment will meet the on-the-ground reality of dealing with the economic disruptions, apart from the expect bunch of incoming data.

Still within Fridays Alert, we went on to explore the weekly and daily message copper is sending. The metal with PhD. in economics closed up on the day, supporting the S&P 500 upswing. While extended, the red metal can still move higher in the short run. But is it out of the woods, pointing to a continuing recovery in the S&P 500?

Lets check another metric of the risk-on/risk-off the copper to gold ratio.

While the ratio gapped higher and can clearly add to its gains in the short-term, it just illustrates the deep fall off the cliff, supporting the conclusion that stocks are still far from sounding the all-clear.

Q: I am reading about trouble in the European Bond market (negative rates have destroyed it), and the possible imposition of a digital currency there. Germany and the Netherlands might be forced to shoulder the debt. Do you follow this and factor it in in some way? Along with this is the Repo market and the Feds juggling act to balance it. So there are many macro-economic forces at play here.

A: The coronavirus crisis is putting strains on the European debt market, and Italian debt market is actually among the biggest ones in the world. The rise in Italian yields brings back the memories of PIIGS crisis with the familiar fault line between the Club Med countries and the richer North. Weve seen it in the failed coronabonds negotiations. Were certainly paying attention also to the gentle nudges towards cashless society these are all being discounted in the market action on an ongoing basis. Similarly to the Repo crisis and pre-corona strains in some of the incoming US data, there are many moving parts in this saga. As the market decides what to listen to and how to interpret it, you can count on us to bring the truly breaking news and their impact to your attention.

Q: it would be helpful to discuss the impending impact of financial crises.

A: As there are parallels between the 2008 and current situation, lets take a look at the Great Recession and stock market performance back then. There have been many false dawns and great volatility, especially in the months of October and November. In the Hope and Change sentiment of the day, stocks scored many sharp rallies in the short run as bad economic news kept coming in. But early in March 2009, theyve stopped reacting to poor data that kept pouring in long after the March 09 bottom.

And we expect it to be the case regarding the coronavirus crisis as well. Again, the stock market will reach the bottom earlier than the real economy does. Leaving aside the question whether we have reached the bottom on March 23 or not (we actually might), the risk of a downswing remains high. Markets dont just come off all-time highs without developing some kind of a trading range next.

Summing up, the S&P 500 added to opening gaps gains in the final hour of trading, which certainly helped in brightening the short-term outlook for the bulls. The breakout above the 50% Fibonacci retracement stands a chance as the 50-day moving average and the lower border of the sizable early March bearish gap (reinforced by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at its upper end) are being tested. As the credit markets continue to underperform, the S&P 500 rally is being led by defensive sectors and technology. The financials-to-utilities and discretionaries-to-staples ratios dont paint a picture of lasting price recovery. Neither does the copper-to-gold ratio. While we expect stocks to roll over to the downside as the coronavirus fallout gets worse bef
ore getting better, that neednt happen tomorrow or the day after. The drive to reopen the economy may come back to bite the decision-makers as the flattened coronavirus curve still appears elusive. Sideways trading followed by renewed selling pressure taking on the March lows, is the optimistic scenario here.

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The detailed anatomy of the S&p 500 upswing - FXStreet

Turkeys are always a challenge to hunt, but their anatomy and physiology is just as intriguing. Some think they are ugly, while others appreciate the array of colors and behavior. Heck, they were almost our national bird. So, as you gear up to chase these illusive birds in their natural habitat, take some time to familiarize yourself with some basic wild turkey anatomy and physiology.

The head of a turkey is a colorful cornucopia. Composed of the caruncles, wattles, snood and dewlap, all are used for different purposes. The changing of color and shape in males emanates aggression, sexual arousal and overall mood. It is a signpost for other turkeys. There are also tiny hairs and feathers around the ear to aid in hearing.

The main fighting tool of a tom is the spur. Since they do all the fighting for the right to breed, they are only present in males. Gobblers jump and use their spurs as daggers to attempt to injure the competition. Spur length is good teller of age, too. Toms with spurs longer than an inch are mature birds, while toms with spurs an inch or less are usually two-year old birds.

A turkeys beard is made from the same material as a rhinoceros hornkeratin. Keratinized epithelial cells are cells filled with the protein keratin. In this case, feathers in toms (and in some hens) keratinize and form the beard. So, a beard is essentially a collection of specialized feathers.

Archibald Rutledge once said, the turkeys eyes are such that he can see a bumblebee turn a somersault on the verge of the horizon. Turkeys can see as a human would while using 8-10x zoom on a pair of binoculars. They also do not have to focus in on objects. If they can see it, it is always in focus. Being able to see in a 300-degree range helps, too. The only spot they cannot see without turning their heads is directly behind them.

Oh, and unlike deer they can see color very well. Good luck.

A turkeys breast is what we call white meat, while its thighs and legs are dark meat. Why is this? White meat is made of light muscle. These muscles are meant for short burst of energy and lack a lot of hemoglobin to sustain activity for too long. Dark meat is composed of dark muscle, which contains high levels of hemoglobin and help sustain a lot of activity for long periods of time. Turkeys walk way more than they fly, so that is why the meat of the legs is dark and the breast is white. (This is why the breast of migratory birds like ducks is dark, FYI).

What interesting things have you noticed about a turkeys anatomy and physiology?

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Wild Turkey Anatomy and Physiology - OutdoorHub