Where North Korea can strike

For years, North Korea has had the ability to launch short-range missiles at targets up to 800 miles away. But this year, North Korea successfully tested intermediate-range and intercontinental ballistic missiles. Experts now think the country is capable of hitting targets more than 7,000 miles away, which includes cities in the continental United States.

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North Koreas nuclear program has grown under Kim Jong Un, while missile ranges have considerably expanded. Kim conducted 24 missile tests in 2016 and 14 tests already in 2017.

Missile ranges

Apr. 9, 1984: North Korea first begins testing variants of Soviet Scud missiles.

Dec. 12, 2012: Kim Jong Un becomes ruler in the wake of his father's death.

July 28, 2017: North Korea fires its second intercontinental ballistic missile.

Failed missile tests

Only 2,100 miles southeast of North Korea, Guam is a strategic target because of its two American military bases Andersen Air Force Base and Naval Base Guam. There are 3,831 U.S. military personnel stationed there in addition to several B-1 bombers and fighter jets.

Andersen

US Air Force Base

Andersen

US Air Force Base

Andersen

US Air Force Base

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Anatomy of a Crisis: The North Korea threat - Politico

Molly Martens-Corbett and her father, Thomas Michael Martens, are now 72 hours into 20-year jail terms for the second-degree murder of Irish businessman Jason Corbett (39).

Their convictions were as much underpinned by what wasn't said in a North Carolina courthouse over the past four weeks as for what was revealed in evidence.

The father and daughter, if they contemplate the dramatic and emotion-charged events of last Wednesday morning in Courtroom C of the Davidson County courts complex in Lexington, will probably wonder precisely where the murder trial hinged?

When did the jury of nine women and three men swing towards a second-degree murder conviction rather than believing the story of self-defence? Was it the dramatic forensic evidence of blood spatter expert Dr Stuart James?

The Florida-based expert, one of the world's leading authorities on blood spatter analysis, effectively recreated the last moments of the Limerick father-of-two's life in the early hours of August 2, 2015 in the bedroom of his luxury home.

He determined that Mr Corbett may very well have suffered the first of at least 12 horrific blows to his head while in or by his bed.

He also determined that Mr Corbett's head was repeatedly struck in a descending motion - in other words as he fell to the ground.

Dr James also found, from blood impact spatters, that Mr Corbett was struck while on the ground - and with his wife and father-in-law standing over him.

"There were little bits of Jason all over her," Assistant District Attorney Alan Martin would tell the trial. "That puts her in the thick of it. It is rock solid evidence. That puts her there."

Pathology evidence indicated Mr Corbett then sustained between one and four blows to the skull when he was already dead.

Or perhaps the 33-year-old former Knoxville model and swim coach, and her father, a retired FBI agent and counter-intelligence operative, will consider the remarkable forensic work at the Panther Creek Court scene of Lt Frank Young. He preserved the clothing worn by the duo at the scene - and he compiled a video and photographic record of the property hailed as "truly excellent" by Dr James.

Thanks to his photographic record of the blood-soaked bedroom, hallway and bathroom, Dr James was able to do his work.

But in truth, the father and daughter are probably much more likely to focus on what wasn't said in Courtroom C over the three weeks of harrowing evidence in the case.

Jury foreman Tom Aamland revealed that the jury were intrigued by a number of obvious issues that weren't clarified - particularly by the Martens version of precisely what happened in the master bedroom that night.

Just like Irish jurors, an instinctive sense of curiosity, allied to a healthy common sense perception of something out of the ordinary, flooded through the North Carolina jury.

What was the young Tennessee woman doing with a heavy and unsightly concrete garden paving brick on her nightstand table that night?

"We all wondered what it was doing there," Mr Aamland said after the trial finished. No explanation was ever offered to the trial.

But there were other unanswered questions.

How on Earth could a 39-year-old, six-foot and 16-stone man grab his wife by the throat and then get engaged in a life-and-death tussle with a 67-year-old retiree and not leave a single mark on either of them?

Martens-Corbett's clothing wasn't torn, there were no marks on her neck and a delicate filigree bracelet on her wrist wasn't bent, damaged or scratched despite the ordeal she just claimed she had just gone through.

In that death struggle which ended with Mr Corbett sustaining head injuries so savage they were compared to those in a severe car crash or a fall from a great height, how could Martens recall almost every single blow struck with a metal Louisville Slugger baseball bat and yet not have a single recollection of his son-in-law being struck by a brick?

That was despite the fact the brick was not only soaked in the Limerick man's blood but was also embedded with his hair fragments and tissue.

When it was lifted by forensic experts from the bedroom floor, it left its outline in blood on the carpet. Martens similarly hadn't a single mark on him - and his clothing was likewise intact and not torn. The questions for the jury just kept mounting.

How did the powerful sedative Trazedone end up in Mr Corbett's system when the medication was prescribed for his wife just two days earlier?

But perhaps most intriguing of all for the jurors was the single most glaring omission from the accounts of both the father and daughter - where was Sharon Martens, their wife and mother, during the violent and prolonged confrontation?

Read More: Killer sought to take place of children's mother, at the ultimate cost

Martens said he was awoken from sleep in the basement bedroom by the sounds of a scream coming from upstairs.

Before the counter-intelligence operative and lawyer had even testified to that fact in court, he had given a pre-trial interview outlining precisely the same sequence of events to ABC's '20/20' programme, one of the top shows in the US.

It was almost as if, in anticipating a negative outcome to the North Carolina trial, the father and daughter were attempting to lay the groundwork for public sympathy for a subsequent appeal.

Back on August 2, at 3am, Mrs Martens apparently never awoke and stayed firmly in the basement bedroom.

This was despite the "life or death fight" that the former FBI agent said he got engaged in upstairs with his son-in-law.

This included shouting and blows to the head which left Mr Corbett's blood spattered all over three separate rooms.

Throughout it all, Mrs Martens apparently never budged from the basement bedroom.

After Mr Corbett was left in a bloody pulp on his own bedroom floor, the father and daughter never called out to Mrs Martens for help or support.

She never ventured upstairs to see what had happened and neither Martens nor Martens-Corbett called on the mother-of-four to immediately call 911.

When Davidson County police officers arrived at the scene and brought the two children, Jack and Sarah, down from their bedrooms, Mrs Martens was still in the bedroom and in total ignorance of the horror that had unfolded upstairs just metres away from her.

"It just makes no sense," Mr Martin said.

"It is like she vanished from the face of the Earth in Tom Martens's testimony."

Mr Aamland revealed that jurors were clearly taken by aspects of the prosecution case.

This ranged from the forensic evidence to the powerful closing arguments of Mr Martin and Assistant District Attorney Greg Brown.

In concise reference to evidence from paramedics and the 911 dispatcher, Mr Brown told the jury they contended the father and daughter beat Mr Corbett into a bloodied pulp on the bedroom floor and then cruelly left him to die.

They delayed calling 911 to ensure he was dead - and then engaged in a charade of "fake" cardiac pulmonary resuscitation (CPR) efforts while a 911 dispatcher listened on the line.

Despite having allegedly performed 600 chest pumps between them on Mr Corbett's blood-soaked chest, there was no blood found on the palms of either the father or daughter.

Mr Martin went even further.

He said the jury could infer whether there had been an attempt to drug Mr Corbett with a fresh mint Mojito on the evening of August 1? There had also been multiple calls - more than half a dozen - made by Martens-Corbett to her parents as they made the four-hour drive from Knoxville for the unexpected visit to the Corbett home.

In evidence, Martens said he could not recall the phone calls from his daughter.

Mr Aamland revealed that, having been asked to consider a verdict by Judge David Lee at 3.22pm on Tuesday, the jurors were already unanimously agreed that first night that Martens was guilty of second-degree murder.

The jur
ors had indicated, in a preliminary vote, they were split 10-2 on whether Martens-Corbett was guilty of second-degree murder.

However by 11am the following day, the two dissenting jurors had reviewed the evidence and changed their minds.

At 11.25am, Mr Aamland confirmed to Judge Lee and a shocked courtroom that unanimous verdicts had been reached.

Martens-Corbett began sobbing before either she or her father were taken into custody for 15 minutes before Judge Lee dealt with sentencing.

"I'm really sorry, Mom - I wish he'd just killed me," she wept.

Her father, after 40 years in law enforcement, remained calm and impassive, assisting bailiffs and sheriffs by holding his hands directly out behind him so he could be handcuffed.

Read More: Jason asleep as Molly attacked, jurors believed

In the public gallery there were tears of two different kinds.

On the right side of the court, the Corbett family, their friends and supporters wept in relief.

Throughout, the family's dignified and courageous approach to the case impressed all who witnessed it.

Across the aisle, members of the Martens family sobbed uncontrollably. Some were visibly devastated by the verdicts.

Mrs Martens wept and had to be comforted by her brother, Federal employee and Afghanistan Reconstruction Executive official Michael Earnest.

Her son sobbed so much he had to hold his head in his hands in a bid to regain his composure.

Mr Aamland admitted it was difficult for the jury, too.

Five jurors wept openly as the verdict was handed down and, minutes later, once again as the father and daughter received minimum 20-year prison sentences.

When they were brought back into the court, the father and daughter were a study in contrasts.

Martens was impassive but clearly worried as to the upset of his daughter and wife.

Martens-Corbett was physically shaking with emotion.

When her father declined the opportunity to address the court, she spoke briefly in an address that was almost incoherent due to sobs and wails.

"I did not murder my husband," she cried. "My father did not murder my husband.

"The incidents of August 2 happened as they happened on a somewhat regular basis.

"The only difference is my father was there," she sobbed.

Minutes later, the duo were led out of Courtroom C in a phalanx of armed Davidson County bailiffs and sheriffs.

Just over two hours later, they had changed from their clothing - a simple blue dress and a smart dark suit - into prison issue clothing.

Both wore handcuffs tied to waist chains as they walked to the waiting prison truck for transfer to high security prisons in Raleigh.

In Martens's case it was to Central Prison, where he was placed in special protective custody given his law enforcement background.

In Martens-Corbett's case, it was to the North Carolina Correctional Institute for Women.

She arrived with a recommendation from Judge Lee that she receive whatever psychological and psychiatric supports she might require.

Before their prison van left Lexington, their legal teams confirmed they intended to lodge challenges to the convictions with the North Carolina Court of Appeals.

Mr Earnest, visibly shocked by the verdict, briefly spoke to reporters outside the courthouse.

"I just want to say, in my opinion, in my personal life this is the most atrocious miscarriage of justice I have ever been a part of," he said.

Outside the Davidson Courts complex, on Salem Street, just metres from Lexington Post Office, the Corbett family issued a public statement of thanks to the jury, the District Attorney's Office and the Davidson County Sheriff's Department.

Jason's sister, Tracey Lynch, spoke as she was greeted by a bank of TV crews and photographers.

Before they had even left the court building, the family were planning flights back home to the greater Limerick area.

After four weeks in the searing heat of a North Carolina summer, the rain of Ireland was something everyone was looking forward to.

Mrs Lynch, flanked by her sister Marilyn, said their family's priority now was providing a safe, happy and positive future for two children who lost both parents to tragedies before they were 10 years old.

"We want to create a good future for Jason's two children who he loved so much," she said.

Minutes earlier, Assistant District Attorney Alan Martin had summed up the mood of all who attended the gruelling trial which came to dominate headlines on both sides of the Atlantic.

"There is no joy, there is no triumph, there is no pride. There is just grief, grief and more grief," he said.

Visit link:
Anatomy of a murder: the brutal killing of Jason Corbett - Independent.ie

MARC HINTON

Last updated05:00, August 13 2017

REUTERS

Tom Walsh wasn't the strongest in the world champs shot put field, but he did throw the furthest legally.

It was Jake the Muss in the iconic Kiwi movie Once Were Warriors who brutally encapsulated the delicate balance between "too much weights and not enough speed work". Tom Walsh may just have taken that theory to another level with his world championships shot put triumph in London.

Walsh tipped the shot put form book on its head when he knocked over the heavily favoured American duo of Ryan Crouser and Joe Kovacs to claim his first IAAF World Championships title, and continue his groundbreaking ways.

These are good times to be Tom Walsh, a part-time builder from Christchurch (by way of Timaru) who is laying some impressive foundations as an athlete. Last year he became the first Kiwi male to win a world indoors title; then followed that up by claiming New Zealand's first men's field event Olympic medal (a bronze) in Rio; and also becoming the first bloke from these parts to claim an overall Diamond league crown.

KAI PFAFFENBACH/REUTERS

Tom Walsh throws in the men's shot put final in London.

Now with his world championship triumph early Monday (NZT) at London's Olympic stadium, Walsh has struck a further blow for blokedom, becoming the first Kiwi male to make the podium at the global event. The US$60,000 (NZ$82,000) bonus he achieved for doing so was just a delicious icing on the cake.

READ MORE*Walsh fires up over protests*Groin tear won't hold Walsh back*Walsh banks $82,000bonus

It wasn't easy for Walsh in London as he had to suck up an agonising groin tear on the eve of the event and compete through gritted teeth, and then survive multiple protests from both Crouser and Kovacs in the aftermath that left the final outcome in doubt right up until just minutes before the medal ceremony the next evening.

But the protests were all eventually thrown out and Walsh was able to limp on to the podium to receive a richly deserved gold medal that was a blow not just for the underdog, with Crouser and Kovacs owning the year's 10 biggest throws between them, but also for the comparative "little guy".

Yes, Walsh, at 1.85 metres and around 124kg is pretty damn big to be anyone's idea of small. But these things are comparative.

Crouser, a giant of a man, stands 2.03m and tips the scales around 141kg. The more compact Kovacs is still a full 10kg heavier than Walsh. They are both power men. They muscle the shot put, rather than finesse it.

Brazilian monster Darlan Romani, who was fifth in Rio last year but failed to make the final in London, nudges the scales at 140kg and is reputed to be bench-pressing 300kg in his workouts.

"There are two major ways to throw," says Walsh. "You can be strong or you can be fast. I'm not overly strong and I'm not overly big either. I'm definitely the speed and rhythm kind of guy. Most of the guys are strength kind of guys get very strong in the gym and you'll throw far.

"Yes, I am stronger than probably 99 percent of Kiwis. But in terms of world shot put I'm not overly strong.

"Put it this way, if it was a strongman contest, I'd be way out the arse-end."

But it's not. The pre-throw whirly-gig routine in the circle is as important as the actual release of the 7.2kg silver sphere. And the 25-year-old Walsh is so very good at generating the low-to-the-ground speed that then transfers into power on the throw.

For a big man, he is remarkably light on his feet, and it's an attribute he has honed into a game-changing point of difference.

Not that Crouser, whose only quality throw in London was red-flagged (thus his protest, and then re-protest), can be surprised by what played out. Back in February, when he beat Walsh twice in meets in Christchurch and Auckland by throwing over 22 metres in both, he remarked about the difference in style.

"I'm bigger and stronger than I was last year, so I'm kind of muscling it out there," he said after throwing 22.15m to win the Auckland Track Challenge. "You see Tom is lot quicker and has a lot more finesse than I do, and he's definitely in cleaner form.

"He's an unbelievable competitor, and he's one of those guys you can have a big lead on and he can throw a monster when the pressure is on. You never really beat Tom till that last throw is done."

What Walsh has also become is the most consistent performer on the shot put scene. He had five of the top six throws in London with a series of remarkable quality: 21.38m, 21.64m, 21.75m, 21.70, 21.63m and, then, saving his best for last, 22.03m.

On a day when his rivals struggled to find their best stuff at least legally the smiling Kiwi was quite simply a man apart.

Walsh puts that down to his accent on technique, timing and speed, and a strong mindset that has been a big part of the work undertaken with coach Dale Stevenson and sports psychologist John Quinn.

"Mentally I was in a really good place. I knew exactly what I needed to do and I stuck with that. Dale and John and I always talk about sticking to what's been working in training, and what has been working in training is getting out and around at the back of the circle.

"That means flowing through the back of the circle in terms of acceleration, and then a strong left side. If I've got a strong left side, all my power goes into my left side and it pops up, and that keeps me in the circle."

Remember, the best throws of both Crouser and Kovacs in London (both would have won the gold medal if legal) were red-flagged. The sport is not just about chucking tin a long way. But doing it within the rules of the game.

Walsh does a lot of mental work now. It's something he's, well, got his head around.

"When you're young, you don't think it's important. You think physical attributes are important. I bombed out at the world juniors the year Jacko (Kiwi rival Jacko Gill) won. I went from throwing 20 metres in the warmup area to throwing 18 metres in the competition arena.

"I thought, 'well, what's the reason?'. From there, it's been a long and gradual process over the last seven years to get to where I am now. My routines are very structured and I know exactly what works for me."

The burly Kiwi is also a competitor. "It was great to come in when everyone was talking about those two (Crouser and Kovacs) and do the deed. No one was talking about me, and that was good. Kiwis compete well with a chip on their shoulder.

"It's a great feeling to know we've achieved what we set out to after Rio. We said we'll probably need to throw mid-22s to win in London. I got myself into that shape, but on the day no one managed to throw that far, and I took the cake."

Yes, the sweet taste of success went to not the biggest, meanest or strongest. But the man who figured out that if you don't get the balance between speed-work and weights, there is most definitely a price to pay.

-Sunday Star Times

Read more from the original source:
Anatomy of a world championship: How 'tiny' Tom Walsh shot down the giants - Stuff.co.nz

Steve Bannon: So we need to come up with a response to the latest threats from the putz with the bad haircut and small hands.

Donald Trump: (Begins tweeting) Thats FAKE NEWS! And my hands are not small! SAD!

Steve Bannon: Donald, were talking about Kim Jong. Wait a minute! This just in! The latest polls show that you have the highest ratings of any president in the history of the world!

Donald Trump: Ok. Thats more like it! Can I tee off now?

Stephen Miller: Anyway, I think it should be something catchy, something that would show the devastation that could be catastrophic if they dont stop focusing on this Russian investigation---err, uhI mean, that very bad man, Kim Jong.

Steve Bannon: Yeah, something that sends a strong message to the short-fingered vulgarian with the nasty do who doesnt seem to understand diplomatic language.

Donald Trump: Fake News Alert! My fingers are not small! They are tremendous fingers! And yuge!

Kelly Anne Conway: Oh look! Theyre talking about Donald on Fox News!

Donald Trump: Where? What channel?

Chris Christie: Would anyone care for a beverage? A hot towel?

Ivanka Trump: Can we wrap this up? Its almost the Sabbath. Ill say a special barucha that we find the right name to scare the bejeezus out of that little toad with the weird haircut and spindly fingers.

Donald Trump: Ivanka, my heart! Not you too! SAD!

Donald Jr: Im thinking this may a good time to expand the brand, add a few more prime properties to our portfolio.

Eric Trump: Hey! How about Guam? I heard that prices are way down on properties there!

Chris Christie: Anyone care for a cocktail? Ive got some pigs in a blanket warming in the oven

Ivanka Trump: My people have suffered enough. We do not eat treif!

Melania Trump: How about Shock and Awe?

Steve Bannon: Lets run some scary images of post-nuclear mushroom clouds, make some comparisons to the Bay of Pigs and

Ivanka Trump: Uh treif? Sheesh!

Donald Trump: I got it! Kim Jong, youre fired!

Chris Christie: Oh lookie here! Ive got a nice hot fudge sundae for the president with two scoops!

Donald Trump: With a cherry?

Chris Christie: Of course! Now its time for your nap.

Donald Trump: Oooh Vanilla! My favorite!

Voices begin to overlap, all chiming in, as the voices begin to fade Fire and brimstone, fierce and fiery, burn baby burn, blazing dystopia dreams, Make America Nuke Again, Wag the Korean Dog, Snova sdelat' Ameriku

The Morning Email

Wake up to the day's most important news.

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The Anatomy of a Slogan - HuffPost

Photo Brittany Ferrells activism in Ferguson, Mo., is a focal point of the documentary Whose Streets? Credit Autumn Lin/Magnolia Pictures

Whose Streets?, a documentary about the unrest and activism in Ferguson, Mo., in the wake of the 2014 police shooting of Michael Brown, an unarmed black teenager, is choppy, sometimes unfocused, and in every respect the opposite of slick. Its directors, Sabaah Folayan and Damon Davis, are novice filmmakers, true; but I also suspect this movies form is deliberate, part of its message. This is direct and frequently powerful filmmaking that doesnt much care about meeting my aesthetic standards.

A preview of the film.

Whose Streets? takes off from the night Mr. Brown was shot. One of the movies subjects is David Whitt, a resident of the apartment complex on the street where the shooting took place, who is moved to take his video camera onto the streets to record police action as rioting started. Another thread follows Brittany Ferrell and Alexis Templeton, a couple navigating parenthood and school, and putting themselves at considerable risk as they lead and participate in demonstrations like one in which they formed a human chain to block traffic on a highway.

The movie is punctuated with quotes by black historical figures Martin Luther King Jr.s observation that a riot is the language of the unheard is particularly resonant. Much of the footage is from low-resolution video cameras and cellphones; the most professional-looking material here is from a television interview with Officer Darren Wilson, who shot Mr. Brown, in which he says, You cant perform the duties of a police officer and have racism in you. This is shown in the same section that features on-the-fly shots of off-duty St. Louis police officers puffing their chests at activists at a town hall meeting. Another wrenching scene shows a protester trying to address a black female officer, the only person of color in a defensive line of cops; she holds her position even as tears fill her eyes.

Whose Streets?

Directors Sabaah Folayan, Damon Davis

Stars Brittany Ferrell, Tef Poe, Kayla Reed, Tory Russell, Alexis Templeton

Rating R

Running Time 1h 30m

Genre Documentary

Read more from the original source:
Review: Anatomy of Ferguson, From a Shooting to Activism - New York Times

September 13, 2016

It was the first game of the 2016 NFL season and excitement for the New Miami was at an all-time high. The Dolphins had just signed new head coach Adam Gase and even though we got a sneak peek throughout the preseason, EVERYONE was excited to see his high-octane offense in action. Miamis Week 1 opponent was no slouch as the team traveled cross-country to take on NFC West powerhouse, Seattle Seahawks.

Thirty seconds into the second quarter, something big happened. Down 3-0, Ryan Tannehill heaved a beautiful ball 71-yards downfield. One of the leagues most dynamic wide receivers was wide open...

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!

Most fans remember this as if it were yesterday. It may or may not have been the difference in the end, as Miami went on to lose 12-10. What was most impressive is just how wide open Stills was.

Below is what the play looked like pre-snap.

Stills designed route on the play, was a seam down the middle of the field. However, what truly opened things up was Fosters out-and-up route on the sideline. His route occupied three members of the Legion of Boom. This forces the safety on Stills, who is wide open in the middle of the secondary.

As you can see at the bottom of the screen, Fosters route allows Stills to break free down the middle of Seattles defense. Earl Thomas reacts seconds too late and the rest is pitch and catch for the Dolphins offense. At least thats what we had assumed. Whether Stills was eager to reach the end zone, had a glare in his eyes, just finished eating a greasy hamburger or whatever may had happened, this is a catch he should have made.

In the picture below, we see ho many yards Stills has on the safety. When the ball falls mercifully from Stills hands, he has a good 5-10 yards on Thomas.

Im a big fan of Kenny Stills and have to believe this play haunts him on a regular basis. With the type of roller coaster ride weve had thus far in preseason, I felt like this was a better time than ever to revisit the infamous drop from Week 1. Lets just hope with a new contract and a second year in Gases offense, Kenny Stills will have a career year. The Dolphins could certainly use it.

See the original post here:
Anatomy of a play: The drop heard around the world - The Phinsider

Johnni Macke 11:49 am on August 11, 2017

(Photo Courtesy: ABC/Ron Tom)

Greys Anatomy season 14 is set to premiere next month, and fans have been busy predicting what will happen when the series returns.

Withfans already noticing that the cast of Greys Anatomy was filming new scenes for season 14 in the same clothes they donned in the season 13 finale, star Kelly McCreary has confirmed in an interview withEntertainment Weeklythat the ABC doctordrama willin fact pick up right where last season left off!

Theres obviously some damage to the hospital, Kelly McCreary told Entertainment Weekly about the new season, which will start right after the finale explosion. But it is, in true Greys Anatomy style, a completely surmountable obstacle, because we are superhuman doctors. It serves more as a metaphor of the transformation that the show is going to go through tonally.

While there might be some danger, and darkness left over from last season, McCreary, who plays Dr. Maggie Pierce on the show, hinted that come fall, things will be a bit lighter.

This isnt the first were hearing about a lighter side of Greys Anatomy, however, because earlier this week Jessica Capshaw, who plays Dr. Arizona Robbins, teased a righteously hysterical series premiere.

We know what youre thinking if its picking up after the explosion its serious, not funny, but like both McCreary and Capshaw teased, the light-heartedness is coming.

Its very funny. Its very irreverent, and funny and sort of on its side, Capshaw said while talking with E! Newsabout the new season.

Lets be honest there is only so much sadness we can take, so we welcome the lighter side of Greys come season 14!

Greys Anatomy returns with a two-hour premiere to start season 14 on September 28, 2017 at 8 p.m. on ABC.

For the latest pop culture news and voting, make sure to sign up for the Peoples Choice newsletter!

Read more:
'Grey's Anatomy' Star Reveals Where Season 14 Picks Up - People's Choice

Headlines have been screaming for months about big insurers such as Aetna (AET), United Healthcare (UNH) and Humana (HUM) pulling out of the Obamacare marketplaces because they couldn't make the exchange business profitable. As a result, dozens of counties throughout the country have been left with only one or no insurance choice on their exchange.

Against that backdrop, two smaller insurers that focus primarily on the Medicaid market -- Molina Healthcare (MOH) and Centene (CNC) -- were frequently noted as companies that can successfully navigate the uncertain and complicated exchange business. Many states looked to them and small regional or local insurers to help fill the increasing gaps the big names were leaving behind.

So it came as a bit of shock when Molina announced on Aug. 2 it would exit the exchanges in Wisconsin and Utah, scale back its exchange business in Washington state and leave the door open to pull out of other exchanges in the near future.

What's more, in marketplaces where it will continue to operate, Molina has submitted an average 55 percent premium increase to state regulators, partly due to the uncertainty over the future of federal cost sharing payments.

The news came amid Molina's report of a steep second-quarter earnings loss of $4.10 a share, compared to a 58 cent per share gain during the same period a year earlier. It also followed the ouster in May of Chief Executive Mario Molina and Chief Financial Officer John Molina, brothers who are sons of company founder David Molina. In the earnings report, Molina also announced a major restructuring, which includes about 1,500 layoffs, approximately 7 percent of its workforce.

Until all this bad news broke, Molina was one of the prime examples of an insurer that could actually make the exchanges work. (Centene still does and is expanding its exchange business.) Major insurers like Aetna and United Health, accustomed to the more stable employer-sponsored health insurance market, racked up losses in the exchange business in part because they were surprised by the large number of high-cost patients who signed up.

Molina's business focuseson administering Medicaid health plans for low-income and disabled patients. As a result, the company has experience with managing narrow networks of lower-cost health care providers. "The idea is to arbitrage low-reimbursement providers into exchanges where the competition is paying a lot more," explained Robert Laszewski, president of consulting firm Health Policy and Strategy Associates. "There's an opportunity for profit there."

Molina found it could compete for the no-frills end of the exchange market and enjoy a robust volumne of patient sign-ups. According to Laszewski's estimates, Molina had a track record of enrolling as much as 70 percent of eligible participants in the various markets it participated in. A pool that big offers enough healthy individuals to help stabilize risk, he added.

What went wrong?

According to Joseph White, interim CEO of Molina, the company became overwhelmed with its ACA business, including unexpected increases in medical costs and claims. "We did not adjust for growth in the ACA marketplace," White told analysts in a conference call last week. He explained that the company focused resources on existing processes and technologies instead of a full redesign that would have helped it better deal with ACA growth.

"That was a mistake," said White. "The marketplace shares fundamentals of the Medicaid market, but it's also very different," he added.

In addition, speculated Laszewski, as Molina expanded into new markets and became a more dominant player in others, it may have strayed from its core base of low-income customers, adding costs and risks it couldn't deal with.

"Every company has to analyze every market to make sure they're making money in every market," said Dan Mendelson, chief executive of Avalere Health. Say a plan with bad risk drops out of the market, he added. "You may get saddled with that risk as you pick up those customers."

Molina's bad news leaves exchange consumers with even less choice and more uncertainty than they were already facing in light of failed GOP efforts to repeal and replace Obamacare and the Trump administration's threats to discontinue support for the system.

As commitment deadlines for insurers approach, state insurance commissioners are working hard to convince them to stay in the exchanges and keep at least a bare minimum of coverage. In addition, small, local, often nonprofit players such as L.A. Care Health Plan are trying to fill gaps where they can, while heeding the lessons from Molina's recent mess.

Will these efforts be enough? Consumers may have to wait until open enrollment begins on Nov. 1 to find out.

Read the original here:
Anatomy of a suddenly sick Obamacare insurer - CBS News

To celebrate Fall TV and our huge Fall TV Preview issue hitting stands on Sept. 15 EW is bringing you 50 scoops in 50 days, a daily dish on some of your favorite shows. Follow the hashtag #50Scoops50Days on Twitter and Instagram to keep up with the latest, and check EW.com/50-Scoops for all the news and surprises.

Grey Sloan will be rocked by even more family drama when Greys Anatomy returns this fall.

EW has learned exclusively that Italian actress Stefania Spampinato has booked a multi-episode arc as the sister of Giacomo Gianniottis Andrew DeLuca.

Carina DeLuca will actually take up residence as a new doc at Grey Sloan, which becomes a bit of a nightmare situation of Andrew. This year, were going to definitely have DeLucas character a little more fleshed out with the arrival of his sister from Italy, Gianniotti tells EW. Were going to see a new dynamic in the hospital as his sister arrives, and its not exactly good news; hes frustrated by it.

She has a very interesting and controversial some would say profession within the medical field, which makes him uncomfortable, Gianniotti continues. Its a thorn in his side, her being there, but everybody else is quite fond of her. She will be working [at the hospital], and shes going to help tell the story of DeLuca and how he comes from Italy. Theyre going to speak a little bit of Italian, which will be nice for the Italian fans, because [the shows] so big in Italy.

The news comes on the heels of Abigail Spencer joining the cast for a multi-episode arc, replacing Bridget Regan as Owens sister Megan Hunt, who has been presumed dead for the last decade.

Greys Anatomy will return with a two-hour premiere on Thursday, Sept. 28 at 8 p.m. ET on ABC.

See original here:
Grey's Anatomy introduces a 'controversial' new doc - EW.com

Welcome to the Spoiler Room, a safe place for spoiler addicts to come on a weekly basis to learn whats coming next on their favorite shows and, hopefully, get a few of their own questions answered. If you want scoop on a specific show, send your questions to spoilerroom@ew.com.

Anything new to tease for season 3 of Blindspot? TonyIf youre wondering what has happened to the team over the last 18 months thats the exact amount of time that has passed when we pick back up with Jane and Weller answers will come very quickly this season. Youll see flashbacks, EP Martin Gero promises. We hope to fill in a lot of it right away in the first two or three minutes of the show. No fan of the show will want to miss the opening of the season that will endeavor to fill in a lot of what the hell is going on. Why did she run away? Are Jane and Weller married? All those questions will be answered in the first few minutes.

How long will Jake and Rosa be in jail on Brooklyn Nine-Nine? JessicaIf Boyle has his way, not long! Hes determined to make sure that his friends innocence is known to the rest of the world, Joe Lo Truglio tells me. So hes doing everything he can, hes tailing Hawkins and hes trying to take advantage of her making a mistake. But expect to find a very different Boyle in Jakes absence when the show returns. Theyve got a wonderful cold open to show his depression, which rivals and dare I say surpasses him breaking up with Vivian in the Matrix leather coat cold open.

Where is the new season of Greys Anatomy picking up? KarolineRight where we left off, so everyone is still reeling in the wake of the finale explosion. But it wont be long before theres a shakeup at Grey Sloan. Theres obviously some damage to the hospital, Kelly McCreary says. But it is, in true Greys Anatomy style, a completely surmountable obstacle, because we are superhuman doctors. It serves more as a metaphor of the transformation that the show is going to go through tonally. Its lighter this season. The hospital definitely is undergoing some changes in the form of a new crop of students coming in. Itll look a bit different in certain areas, and some relationships have come to an end or are blossoming, so repairing the damage is more of a metaphor.

Any Chicago P.D. news would be great. MarAntonio is back in Intelligence, as a case in the premiere reconnects him with his former family. The suspect that theyre going after, they hit a bump in the road and they need someone to come in that this guy has never seen and can do a great job undercover, and thats where Antonio comes in, Jon Seda tells me, teasing that Antonio will bump heads with Voight over certain new policies within Intelligence this year.

Will Kuasa crossing paths with Ray on Vixen be addressed on Legends of Tomorrow? ColemanYes, and his knowledge of Kuasa just may help the Legends version of Vixen. If you go back and look at Vixen season 2, I wouldnt exactly call her fighting alongside Ray, shes always been morally questionable, EP Marc Guggenheim says. But I think thats what makes it interesting as far as Amaya is concerned is that Ray, at the appropriate moment, will accurately tell her that there were moments where Kuasa was capable of selfless good, so I think that gives Amaya a little bit of hope.

Do you know anything more about Reginas alter-ego on Once Upon a Time? BradenBar owner Roni is very, very different from Regina, so prepare yourselves. Shes given up a little bit on life, Lana Parrilla tells me. She seems a little hopeless when we first meet her, and then Henry comes to town and things start to shift a little bit. But dont expect his arrival to immediately spark Reginas memories. No, theres nothing there, and I like that. Shes just asleep. Shes not quite in touch with all that stuff yet. A few more things need to happen before she starts getting that feeling. Although, she is inspired by a character, and it shifts her a bit, at the end of the first episode.

Anything on the Hawaii Five-0 team in season 8? ElizabethI hear theres going to be another new member of the team but its definitely not who (or what!) youre expecting. There is a story thats coming up, it actually was Alex OLoughlins idea, EP Peter Lenkov says. I wanted to do a story where the victim left in the wake of a tragedy was a dog who lost its owner. Its a very emotional, really great story. Its a dog thats a drug sniffing service dog that McGarrett ends up adopting. Its a really emotional journey, but it was his idea to keep the dog, and I thought that was a great one.

Hand over some Scandal scoop! DangerWaveWith Cyrus sliding into the White House as VP to Mellies POTUS, Jake will somewhat be sidelined but his continued role in the White House will put some pressure on the dynamic between Jake and Olivia. The interesting thing for Jake is that hes still the head of the NSA, but Olivia being Chief of Staff is sort of his boss, which is a position theyve never really find themselves in and a dynamic we have yet to explore, Scott Foley says. Its going to cause some waves in the water of love.

How will Gretchen be handling Jimmys disappearing act on Youre the Worst this season? MalloyNot well. Not well at all. Believe me, Gretchen does something so shocking in the premiere and enlists Lindsay to do it, too that you will have to remind yourself of the title of the show before you fall down a rabbit hole. And it only gets worse from there. Theres some weird sh that goes down, Aya Cash says. There are so many different kinds of bad, let me put it that way. Even so, Cash has hopes that Gretchen and Jimmy will eventually reconcile. I do because this show is about them and theyre going to have to figure it out, she says. I feel like were heading toward something positive. They start to work out how to be around each other and how to engage in a healthier way. But will she get payback on Jimmy for abandoning her? Yes, Cash says with a smirk.

Any scoop on the season finale of Shadowhunters? TaylorA. lot. happens. Youll find out whether weve seen the last of Jonathan within the finales first minute, but regardless of what happens there, theres still the matter of stopping Valentine. And lets just say that battle is filled with big decisions for Clary, none of which shell be able to take back, and the consequences of which will play heavily into next season. That cryptic enough?

This week in TV: TCA is finally over! You can read all the coverage from our incredibly hard-working TV team here.

Thats a wrap on this weeks Spoiler Room. Be sure to email your questions to spoilerroom@ew.com or tweet them to @NatalieAbrams.

Additional reporting by Samantha Highfill.

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Spoiler Room: Scoop on Blindspot, Brooklyn Nine-Nine, Grey's Anatomy, and more - EW.com (blog)

Whats the prognosis for Greys Anatomy Season 14? Drama, of course.

But its also going to be a lighter, sexier season, the stars say with new faces joining the show and familiar faces coming back for more action.

The season is still weeks away, though, so our prescription for you is to click through the slides of this gallery. Just be warned: Side effects include spoilers.

Greys Anatomy Season 14 premieres on Thursday, September 28, at 8 p.m. ET on ABC.

Tip: Use keyboard arrows to navigate

Season 14 premieres on September 28

Thats Thursday, September 28, at 8 p.m. ET on ABC, to be exact.

In fact, the last time a season of Greys premiered any time other than the week of September 21-28 was Season 1.

Were getting a two-hour premiere

Twice the episode for twice the fun! Shonda knows how to treat us.

The first episode is titled Break Down the House

It was written by new showrunner Krista Vernoff, whos returning to the show for the first time since Season 7, and directed by exec producer/star Debbie Allen.

Season 14 picks up right where Season 13 left off

The docs will still be reeling from the hospital explosion and from now-departed doc Stephanies brush with death.

Theres obviously some damage to the hospital, Kelly McCreary tells Entertainment Weekly.

But it is, in true Greys Anatomy style, a completely surmountable obstacle, because we are superhuman doctors.

It serves more as a metaphor of the transformation that the show is going to go through tonally.

Season 14 wont be as dark as Season 13

Its lighter this season, Kelly McCreary continues.

The hospital definitely is undergoing some changes in the form of a new crop of students coming in.

Itll look a bit different in certain areas, and some relationships have come to an end or are blossoming, so repairing the damage is more of a metaphor.

Season 14 will introduce a spin-off

This spin-off, as of yet untitled, will focus on the firefighters of Seattle and will premiere in early 2018. (Heres everything we know about that show.)

Owens sister will be back, with a new face

Well see more of Megan Hunt now that shes been found, though shell be played by Timeless star Abigail Spencer.

(Bridget Regan, who played Megan last season, couldnt return because shes filming The Last Ship.)

Teddy Altman will be back, too

We last saw the cardiothoracic surgeon in Season 8, when Owen generously fired her so that she could pursue her dream job at MEDCOM in Germany which happens to be the army facility to which Megan Hunt, Owens sis, was transferreden route to Seattle.

Kim Raver is bringing the character back for multiple episodes in Season 14, and we imagine Teddy will help Megan in her recovery and her acclimation to Seattle.

The cast and crew have been filming in Seattle

Its the first time in a decade Greys Anatomy has filmed where its actually based instead of, yknow, a Hollywood soundstage and these exterior scenes will be interspersed throughout Season 14, Entertainment Weekly reports.

Cast members have filmed scenes on a ferry you know how much Greys loves its ferries! and at the real-life house that plays Merediths house.

Camilla Luddington promises a sexy season

Especially because the Alex-Jo-DeLuca love triangle is still a thing, as Camilla tells TV Guide:

This seasons going to be very sexy I can imagine [Jo] maybe feeling a little bit jealous if DeLuca started dating someone else.

But I think she's at a time in her life right now where she has to deal with her own emotional journey and what shes going through in her past ... before she really jumps straight into a relationship with someone else.

Theres some stuff that she has to work through.

Spoiler alert: Alex and Jo will get back together

Footage from the Seattle set shows Alex playfully chasing Jo in a park, and once he catches up to her, they embrace and kiss.

Paul Stadler, Jos abusive ex, will be back

Alex and Jo better watch out!

Glee alum Matthew Morrison said hell be reprising his Greys role.

I have a big role in Greys Anatomy coming up, he told The Argonaut in an interview published on August 2.

Jo is advancing in her career

We will absolutely explore Jos story more, Camilla Luddington told TVLine.

In fact, Camilla heard rumblings that Jo will take her board examinations and find another mentor.

This season Jo may feel inspired by someone again, she says.

Well meet DeLucas sister, another medical professional

We are bringing my sister [in] as a new character, Giacomo Gianniotti told ETOnline.

She is going to be a new presence at the hospital. She comes from Italy, as my character is Italian, and you get to see us exchanging some blows in Italian, which will be very interesting

Her profession, although we cant disclose it, is a very interesting one. Its going to keep a lot of the doctors on their toes, make some doctors uncomfortable, [and] some people will be glad about [her coming on]. Shell stir things up with a European background and take on medicine.

Carina DeLuca will be played by Stefania Spampinato

The 35-year-old actress and dancer is Sicilian and had a two-episode arc on USAs Satisfaction in 2015.

Eliza Minnick wont be back

Were one step closer to a Calzona reunion, people!

Eliza, the education consultant that wooed Arizona, was fired in the Season 13 finale, and TVLine confirms that Marika Domiczyk wont be returning for Season 14.

Whats the prognosis for Greys Anatomy Season 14? Drama, of course.

But its also going to be a lighter, sexier season, the stars say with new faces joining the show and familiar faces coming back for more action.

The season is still weeks away, though, so our prescription for you is to click through the slides of this gallery. Just be warned: Side effects include spoilers.

Greys Anatomy Season 14 premieres on Thursday, September 28, at 8 p.m. ET on ABC.

Link:
Everything We Know About 'Grey's Anatomy' Season 14 (PHOTOS) - Wetpaint

Clarks Originals Trigenic Evo for men.

Courtesy of brand

Clarks Originals is taking comfort to new extremes with todays launch online of the Trigenic Evo.The style follows its predecessor, the Trigenic Flex.

The ergonomic mens and womens style, retailing for $180, is designed on an asymmetric last with elastic fastenings that mirror the foot tendons for support and density footbed for enhanced comfort. A lightweight three-part outsole features a linear map of the human gait cycle that visually emphasizes the high impact/stress areas of the foot.

The brand will also be debuting the style at Philadelphia retailer Ubiq as part of a three-month in store pop-up through October. Visitors to the store tonight will also get a preview of ongoing store activations that will take place over the three months.

Monthly, a panel series inspired by Clarks The World Needs Originals campaign innovators who rewrite rules will feature local influential creatives. They include photographers in August, musicians in September and artists in October, who will speak to the importance of originality.

Tonights guests will also have exclusive access to the first drop in a 12-pin series in collaboration with Ubiq and Pintrill, which feature key Clarks Originals designs and themes/icons of Philadelphia that are set to drop on a weekly basis over the course of the pop-up.

Want more?

Iconic British Brand Clarks Brings Manufacturing Back Home

How Cole Haan Is Creating State-of-the-Art, High-Tech Comfort Shoes

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Clarks Launches Next Generation of Comfort Shoes Inspired by Human Anatomy - Footwear News

World oil markets have experienced a fundamental transition in recent years, making the practice of oil price manipulation to be elusive. In the past, oil prices were basically supported by the market being undersupplied, together with the specter of peak oil. Oil market paradigms were based on declining production in countries composing the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), contrasting with rising global demand mostly among non-OECD countries. In the face of such production declines, OPEC and Eurasia (Russia and the former United Soviet Social Republics, USSR) pegged their production to quotas more so associated with global supply than global demand. The resulting anticipation was for a state of secular market undersupply to simply continue, pushing oil prices higher.

However, oil prices collapsed. Market expectations were defeated with the U.S. dramatically increasing production. The production increase in the U.S. shocked markets by demonstrating the capacity to supply 78% of the total global oil demand increase from 2008 to 2015 - something never before experienced from a country or entity in the oil markets. OPEC and Eurasia market quotas, associated with global supply, cemented an oversupplied dynamic.

This oversupply was once thought to be self-limiting, with U.S. producers simply having to shut in production at various declining price levels. 2016 proved this not to be the case. Now, OPEC and Russia seek to regain influence in an oil market that's dramatically altered. Altered in such a way that the past method of controlling prices by controlling supply has simply given way to new technologies. These technologies evolved an oil market where the ability to accumulate market share at historically low prices is paramount. Driving this is the fact that oil production trends have been much more dramatic than trends in oil demand, with both trends favoring oversupplied conditions. Technology is creating the ability to produce more oil at progressively lower costs. Likewise, technology reduces oil demand by creating fuel inefficiencies and alternative modes of energy.

Another transitional market dynamic is looming between a state of oversupplied conditions and sovereign budget deficits. Where OPEC countries once enjoyed significant sovereign budget surpluses and associated social services, now worrying budget deficits have persisted since 2014. To bridge the gap, unprecedented bond debt has been issued among the most able, namely Saudi Arabia, with their $17.5 billion global bond issuance in October of last year. The primary method of addressing deficits has been the use of foreign currency reserves, such as in Iraq to fill an approximate $20 billion per year shortfall over the last 3 years. All of this in a region already inflicted with substantial ideological tensions, insurgencies and territorial conflicts.

OPEC once balanced production between supporting prices, while avoiding global economic recession. Now we see OPEC pressured in an unprecedented way, with private company profitability setting oil price discovery. A collapse in OPEC production is the risk as always, but now it is compounded by the new economics of oil price due to technology and not just the customary features of ideology and territory.

According to data from the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA), from 2007 through 2013, global markets were undersupplied with oil 4 years out of the total 7. The undersupply was often significant, with an undersupply of 1.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2007 and 1.24 mb/d in 2011. In 2012, an oversupply of only 140 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) occurred. In 2009 and 2010, the market was essentially balanced, with demand having been eroded by the Great Recession.

In the singular instance of oversupply, the volume of oversupply was minimal. This dynamic supported inflation-adjusted oil prices in the range of $90-105 per barrel. A shift to oversupply came in 2014 with an oversupply of 820 kb/d, gaining to 1.71 mb/d in 2015 and 250 kb/d in 2016. So far in 2017, the first quarter saw a state of balance and the second quarter saw an undersupply of 270 kb/d, primarily attributable to a large decline in Canadian production due to an unscheduled disruption in operations. Of course, it was in the second half of 2014 that oil prices began their collapse as the basic premise of maintaining an undersupplied market showed failure.

Basic to explaining this shift in supply is shale and tight oil production in the U.S. For decades, oil production in the U.S. had been in decline until technology opened a new chapter. Chevron's 10-K for 2016 explains the oil industry's new approach to production by using the Permian basin as an example. According to the company, the "Permian has multiple stacked formations that enable production from several layers of rock in different geological zones." This allows "for multiple horizontal wells to be developed from a single well pad location using shared facilities and infrastructure..."

Such a compounding of wells on a single well pad, near shared facilities and infrastructure, largely explains the countervailing premise of historical oil market dynamics.

The EIA tracks oil production data in a variety of ways. One such way is by tracking production of "petroleum and other liquids," which is similar to barrels of oil equivalents. I will reference this EIA data as barrels of oil equivalents per day (boe/d). In 2009, as the new production technologies were being launched, U.S. production jumped by 630 kboe/d to 9.14 mboe/d, an increase of 7.4% over 2008's level of 8.51 mboe/d. U.S. production increased at similar rates until 2012, when the increase was 980 kboe/d to reach 11.11 mboe/d, up 9.7% over 2011 levels. 2013 saw the U.S. rate of production brake the 1 million mark by increasing by 1.23 mboe/d, 2014 was a banner year with a production increase of 1.73 mboe/d, and 2015 saw a per day increase of another 1.05 mboe/d.

With multiple years of increasing production by over a million barrels per day, and nearly 2 million barrels per day in 2014, U.S. total production found itself at 15.12 mboe/d in 2015. This reflects a 77.6% increase in U.S. oil production from a 2008 level of 8.51 mboe/d. Over 7 years, the U.S. increased its production by a remarkable 6.61 mboe/d.

From 2008 to 2015, total global oil production went from 85.37 mboe/d to 95.78 mboe/d, an increase of 10.41 mboe/d. Of this increase in supply, the U.S. accounted for 6.61 mboe/d, or 63.5% of the increase in total global supply. Over the same period, the largest oil producer, OPEC, saw their production go from 35.72 mboe/d in 2008 to 38.31 mboe/d in 2015, an increase of only 2.59 mboe/d. Most of OPEC's increased production was in 2015, with an increase of 1.96 mboe/d. Still, OPEC's share of total increased global supply was only 24.8%. If one considers that global oil production grew by 10.41 mboe/d between 2008 and 2015, and increased production from both the U.S. and OPEC totaled 9.2 mboe/d, the combined increase in supply from the U.S. and OPEC accounted for 88% of the total increase in global supplies.

Eurasia once was the second-largest oil producer behind OPEC, but this changed in 2014 with the progressing evolution of U.S. production. In 2008, Eurasia produced 12.52 mboe/d, contrasting with the U.S. producing 8.51 mboe/d. By 2015, Eurasia's production advanced to 14.10 mboe/d, while U.S. production saw 15.12 mboe/d. This resulted in Eurasia production growing by a small 1.58 mboe/d from 2008 to 2015, which is only 15% of the total growth in global production of 10.41 mboe/d.

If one combines the U.S., OPEC and Eurasia production increases, the three grew production from 2008 to 2015 by 10.78 mboe/d, while total global production increased at a smaller rate of 10.41 mboe/d. This numerical discrepancy shows that production from the above three assisted in offsetting production declines in other areas, such as the North Sea having a decline of 1.24 mboe/d and Mexico declining by 570 kbo
e/d. Add in Canadian production increasing by 1.46 mboe/d, together with minor advances and declines in other areas, and one can see that the increase in U.S. production of 6.61 mboe/d fundamentally altered the global oil market.

From 2009 through 2011, U.S. oil production steadily crept higher, gaining by about 500 kboe/d. That rate of production doubled in 2012, hitting nearly one million barrels per day of new oil that previously wasn't anticipated. OPEC generally keeps its share of total global production at about 40%, and Eurasia similarly keeps its share in the 15% range. The U.S., on the other hand, expanded its share of total global production from 9.9% in 2008 to 15.8% in 2015. In so doing, it accounted for 63.5% of the increase in total global supply and is the essential reason for the increase in global supply.

Looking at the demand side of the equation, production in the U.S. appears to have averted a looming energy crisis. In so doing, a progressing undersupply imbalance was corrected, at the expense of high oil prices. In 2008, total global consumption stood at 85.78 mboe/d and reached 94.07 mboe/d by 2015, resulting in an increase of 8.29 mboe/d. Of course, total global oil supply increased by 10.41 mboe/d over this period, showing an oversupply of 2.12 mboe/d. This oversupply assisted in compensating for more periods of substantial undersupply than rare periods of meager oversupply.

With the U.S. increasing its production by 6.61 mboe/d from 2008 to 2015, and total global demand increasing by 8.29 mboe/d, the increase in U.S. production addressed 78% of the increase in global demand and, together with OPEC and Eurasia production, an oversupply resulted. Over the 7 years prior to 2008, an opposite dynamic prevailed where supply grew by 7.6 mboe/d and demand grew by 10.3 mboe/d, with an undersupply of 2.7 mboe/d. Undersupply was the essential premise of oil markets, and when the U.S. shale revolution became apparent as a continuing development, prices collapsed.

Originally, it was assumed that the oversupplied condition would be self-correcting. That is, the falling price of oil due to changes in market dynamics would inevitably weed out U.S. shale production. However, as observed by Chevron's John Watson in his Q4 2016 earnings call, "I have been surprised at how resilient production has been in many locations around the world[,] some of that is we just keep getting better."

One such location of production resiliency is certainly the U.S. In January 2016, the EIA projected that U.S. petroleum production would fall into a run rate of 14.5 mboe/d and stay there, if not go lower, through 2017. This contrasts with a run rate in the 15.20 mboe/d range seen in 2015, a decline of 700 kboe/d. By June 2016, the EIA projected U.S. production to fall as low as 14.22 mboe/d, a decline of 980 kboe/d versus 2015 levels. Interestingly, EIA projected continuation of oversupply through 2017 despite projections of significantly declining U.S. production. The essential reason was forecasts of OPEC increasing production, thereby offsetting U.S. declines. It wasn't until December of 2016 that OPEC resolved to cut production by 1.8 million barrels of crude per day. The reason: By December of 2016, both OPEC and the EIA had recognized the resiliency of U.S. production.

Though U.S. production did decline, it didn't do so to the extent thought. It consistently defeated projections to the upside throughout 2016 by around 200 kboe/d. Ultimately, U.S. production decreased by only 290 kboe/d compared with 2015, despite oil prices rarely exceeding $50 per barrel, going as low as $27 and ranging between $50 and $40. In 2016, the market remained oversupplied by 350 kboe/d, assisted by OPEC increasing its production by 610 kboe/d.

OPEC's agreement in late 2016 to cut production by 1.8 mb/d boosted oil price optimism. But the agreement was more so a last-ditch response to OPEC's disappointed expectations of U.S. shale production collapsing. Through the first half of 2016, both OPEC and the EIA projected declining U.S. production, with OPEC's expectations being much more aggressive. In the second half of 2016, it became apparent that U.S. shale production could function in an environment of sustained low pricing. Consequently, the EIA began to revise projections for U.S. production upwards.

Currently, U.S. production has returned to the upward trajectory previously witnessed. In January 2017, the EIA projected U.S. first-quarter production to be 14.76 mboe/d, while the actual production was 15.01 mboe/d. Same with the second quarter, where the projection was 15.04 mboe/d with an actual rate of 15.36 mboe/d. By the fourth quarter of this year, the EIA projects U.S. production to reach 16.24 mboe/d, exceeding the high mark reached in 2015 of 15.20 mboe/d. OPEC is also projected by the EIA to exceed previous records of production by reaching 39.91 mboe/d by the end of 2017.

The EIA forecasts a balanced oil market this year, going into moderately oversupplied next year. However, such a forecast for 2017 looks to be based essentially on flat Canadian production. Since the rescission, Canada has consistently increased production. In the fourth quarter of 2016, their production reached 4.95 mboe/d, and it was at 4.92 mboe/d in the first quarter of 2017. In the second quarter of 2017, production fell to 4.52 mboe/d due to disruptions arising from a fire at Suncrude Canada Ltd.'s bitumen processing plant. For the third and fourth quarters of 2017, the EIA is projecting Canadian production to be at 4.78 mboe/d. Given the country's history of increasing production, and given a production rate of 4.9 mboe/d prior to the second quarter disruption, it appears more likely that Canadian production will reach the 5.0 mboe/d level. Such an event would result in a slightly oversupplied market for 2017.

OPEC's production cuts are showing signs of declining enthusiasm. June's compliance rate decline to 78% versus high 90% rates in previous months. There is a market dynamic at play which OPEC has yet to address, at prices more so implying the need for difficult social transition than simply the margin efficiencies obtained by private oil companies.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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The Anatomy Of An Oil Market Evolution, Its Sustainability, And Consequences - Seeking Alpha