John Dolan on Aging and the Horrifying Conclusion of GWAS

Behold! The ideal reference human.

The eXile Guide to Aging

Look down at your hand. Flex the tendons, watch them ripple under the skin. What a nice design! So silent and quick. That’s what they never get in these cyborg movies: the fact that a really good design doesn’t whirr and clank. It’s silent and quick, like bodies are. Like yours. Yours, these sinews; and that long, stretchable leg, genital toy, brave shoulders, stubborn toes, a zoo of perfect forms and all yours for the price of admission.

There’s only one little flaw: you are trapped in the body of a dying animal…

There’s been a mistake. Someone screwed up the design, with malicious intent. Can you sue Darwin? Can you negotiate an exit from this dying animal? Apparently not. What are we, mere medieval peasants, serfs? Absolutely.

Read this. Digest it.

Now, consider the conclusion of “Clinical assessment incorporating a personal genome” [Lancet 2010; 375: 1525–35]

Important limitations remain in our ability to comprehensively integrate genetic information into clinical care. For example, a comprehensive database of rare mutations is needed. Since risk estimates change as studies are completed, a continually updated pipeline is necessary. There are imperfections in all human genomes published to date—false positive and false negative SNP calls, incomplete measurement of structural variation, and little direct haplotype data. Finally, gene-environment interactions are challenging to quantify and have been little studied.

Really? And what are these “important limitations?”

  • “database” not “comprehensive” “enough”
  • “imperfections” in “published” data
  • “challenging to quantify”

OK. Skip ahead two decades. We’ve done more studies, our models have improved, and our data is more complete.

Prediction: This same paper will be published in two decades with the following conclusions:

  • “database” not “comprehensive” “enough”
  • “imperfections” in “published” data
  • “challenging to quantify”

Why? For once in medicine, the disappointing conclusion is not because the clinical application was sloppy. This is excellent data analyzed by excellent people using excellent methods. The problem with this paper is the premise —first paragraph, first sentence:

the clinical translation of genetic risk estimates remains unclear

No! The clinical translation of genetic risk estimates remains clearly to be what we already know about human medicine:

THE REFERENCE HUMAN AGES AND DIES IN LESS THAN 100 YEARS. DEVIANTS FROM THE REFERENCE HUMAN FARE EVEN WORSE.

The conclusion of GWAS is right there, in your face, cold and ugly. You’re an animal, animals die, and there’s nothing you can learn about yourself to change that.

There is no “silver bullet” in software, and there’s no silver bullet in medicine, because there is no particular feature you can correct or understand about the human body to achieve a clinical expectation of “perfect health” because that hypothesis is nonsensical.

Life is not the movie Avatar. The Nature Tree doesn’t love you, and you won’t live forever if you can always remember your yoga mat and buy fresh groceries at Whole Foods. Disease is not a human flaw, it is a human feature, and a disease-free human would not be human as we understand humans to be. It is an insane, desperate superstition to believe that if only we can “purge all unnatural toxins” or “fix all diseases” or “learn everything about our bodies” that we’ll live in “good health” forever. No, you won’t, and you’ll be dead before you can tell anybody that you didn’t.

All existing medical science from antiquity to present confirms this conclusion, and I am unaware of any credible counter example —which I consider to include a living adult human who is casually indistinguishable from middle age, but who is actually over 150 years old.

I’m not discouraging research or clinical application of genomics. I’m saying that the ideal human is not good enough if your premise includes an expectation of superhuman health.

Alternator Calculation Conundrum

Hi folks; I've been teaching myself alternator design, trying to come up with a reasonably large alternator to run from a wind turbine to power my ocean-going raft. I've been composing my work as I go, mainly to keep track of it, to back up from my many brain-numbing confusions, but with a view to e

See Venus during the day! | Bad Astronomy

[Update (17:00 MT): I did it! Just saw Venus, with the Sun still more than 34° above the horizon. It was very faint and difficult, but once I spotted it I had it nailed. Persistence pays off, me droogs.]

On Twitter last night I mentioned that the thin crescent Moon was near Venus at sunset, and I got a lot of replies from people who ran outside to see. That was pretty nice!

But that was just after the Sun had set for me here in Boulder, when the sky was getting darker and Venus was easy to spot. But Venus can be seen in broad daylight, if you know where to look! Today is a good day to try, because the Moon is still near the planet, and the Moon is slightly easier to find.

findvenus

My advice is to try sometime after local noon. Go outside and find the Sun. Duh, that should be easy enough. At about 1:00 local time for you it should be in high in the south. This will put Venus and the Moon about 30° to the left (if you are in the northern hemisphere; reverse all this for the southern). When I make a fist with my arm fully outstretched, it spans about 10°. I have a big hand, so YMMV. But something like three fist-spans away from the Sun, parallel with the horizon, you should be able to see a very thin crescent Moon. It won’t be easy to spot; binoculars might help. Be careful not to look at the Sun though! [Edited to add: don't let kids or people inexperienced with binoculars try this; if they look at the Sun through the binocs Bad Things can happen. Looking at the sky won't hurt, but looking right at the Sun will potentially damage your eye. In fact, your best bet is to put the Sun behind a roof or a building of some sort, which not only prevents you from hurting yourself, but also makes it easier to spot the Moon.]

Once you spot the Moon, Venus will be easier. It’s just about 7-8 degrees to the right of and slightly above the Moon, between the Moon and the Sun, but much closer to the Moon (most standard binoculars have a 6° field of view, so Venus will be a little more than one FOV away from the Moon). The diagram above shows the configuration as I’ll see it here in Boulder, Colorado at about 1:30 p.m. local time. Hopefully that’ll help you find it.

Finding Venus in the daytime isn’t all that easy, and can be frustrating. If you can’t find it, don’t sweat it. But if you do, I think you’ll be amazed. I still remember the first time I did, when I was about 15. It’s weird to see something that looks like a star when the Sun is blazing away, so it’s worth the effort.

By tomorrow (Monday) the Moon will have moved farther to the east (left), so it’ll be farther from Venus, making this harder to do. So try for it today!


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