Monthly Archives: April 2010

Social Factors in Autism Diagnosis

Posted on by

There is no question that the incidence and prevalence of autism are on the rise. Starting in the early 1990s and continuing to today, there has been a steady rise in the number of children diagnosed with autism. Prior to 1990 the estimates of autism prevalence were about 3 per 10,000. The most recent estimates from the CDC and elsewhere now have the number at about 100 per 10,000, or 1%.

The burning question is – why are the rates increasing steadily? There are those, particularly in the anti-vaccine community, who conclude that the increase in prevalence is a real biological effect – an epidemic – and is evidence for an environmental cause (which they believe is vaccines, even though the scientific evidence does not support this position). However, the evidence strongly suggests that the rising prevalence of autism is largely an artifact of broadening the diagnosis and increased surveillance.

It should be noted that the data cannot rule out a small true increase in autism prevalence. Some hypothesize that increasing maternal and paternal age are contributing to the incidence of autism, but I will leave that question for another post.

A new study now adds significant support to the surveillance hypothesis – Ka?Yuet Liu, Marissa King, and Peter S. Bearman from Columbia University, publishing in the American Journal of Sociology, report that the risk of being diagnosed with an autism spectrum disorder (ASD) correlates with social proximity to another family with a child with an ASD diagnosis. For those interested in this topic, the full paper is worth a read. While it gets technical at times, the authors do an excellent job of reviewing this topic in detail.

To summarize their key points – they begin by reviewing the history of the autism diagnosis. They point out that historically, in the 1950s and 60s, the diagnosis of autism was stigmatized by psychogenic theories of causation (the infamous “refrigerator mothers”). But then:

With hindsight, we can recognize that autism was increasingly destigmatized through the mobilization efforts of Bernard Rimland and the National Society for Autistic Children (NSAC), whose work refuted psychogenic theories of autism and set the stage for the research program that would identify autism as a neurological disorder (Dolnick 1998).

Therefore, prior to the 1970s parents actually mobilized their resources to avoid an autism diagnosis, and instead to seek a diagnosis of mental retardation (MR). This was not only to avoid stigma – the diagnosis of MR was attached to more public resources, while autism was left out in the cold. Then, this situation began to flip. Increasingly after 1990 ASD lost its stigma and became increasingly attached to access to public resources. Parents then began marshaling their resources to obtain an ASD diagnosis, rather than an MR diagnosis.

Liu et al discuss that this interpretation of the history of ASD makes a number of predictions, and they sought to test those predictions. They are not the first to do so, and others have demonstrated (which they review) that as ASD diagnoses increased there was diagnostic substitution – other related diagnoses, such as MR, decreased. Autism prevalence has increased uniformly in all age groups. If an environmental cause was at work, younger age groups should have disproportionately increased. When the same diagnostic criteria are applied autism incidence is largely stable over time. Increasing caseloads of ASD correlate with times when the diagnostic criteria are expanded.

The study authors now go further – looking at the pattern of ASD diagnoses sociologically. They hypothesized that if the increasing rate of ASD is due to sociological, rather than biological, factors then proximity should play a role. That is exactly what they found – a child who lives 250 meters from another child who has been diagnosed with autism is 42% more likely to be diagnosed, and if they live between 250 and 500 meters of another child, they have a 22% increased chance of being diagnosed. Basically, being close to a family with an ASD child provides access to information that allows other parents to more efficiently mobilize their resources to seek an ASD diagnosis.

This matters because obtaining an ASD diagnosis is not always easy or automatic. Many ASD children, on first presentation to a pediatrician, are not diagnosed. Some doctors are more likely to make the diagnosis than others. And school systems may delay diagnosis as well. Parents who therefore pursue a diagnosis more aggressively are more likely to get it.

Of course, an infectious agent would also spread through proximity, so they tested this possibility by looking at specific features that should differ. For example, the sociological spread hypothesis predicts that the proximity effect should be greatest at the milder end of the spectrum. More clear cut cases are likely to be diagnosed regardless of parental resources or effort, while milder cases will be highly dependent on these factors. They found that the proximity effect existed only among the milder end of the spectrum, and was absent for more severe children. They also found that the effect obeyed school districts – so proximity across a school district demarcation did not confer increased chance of having an ASD diagnosis. Further, they found that children with an ASD diagnosis had similar referral sources to other ASD children with proximity.

All of this points to the fact that parents obtain information from other parents in their neighborhood about which doctors to see, what questions to ask, and how to interface with the school system most effectively to obtain an ASD diagnosis and the increased services that come with it.

Conclusion

This study adds powerful evidence to the conclusion that the increasing incidence of autism is largely due to sociological factors rather than a true increase in the incidence of autism. This does not rule out a true increase also hiding in the data, but rather demonstrates that sociological factors are a significant contributor. This study must also be put into the context of the many other studies supporting the conclusion that the dramatic increase in ASD is due largely to increased surveillance and expanded diagnosis.

I was also not previously aware of the extent of the effect that social stigma has played. Previously parents avoided an autism diagnosis and sought an MR diagnosis, while today the situation is reversed, and the evidence shows the diagnostic substitution we would expect to be the result.

Another prediction of the sociological hypothesis is that eventually autism incidence should level off – once diagnoses are saturated. We are probably getting close to that point now.

All of this also means that scientists are justified in focusing their research efforts on characterizing the genetic risks and causes of ASD. Further, calls for a shift in emphasis to environmental causes based upon the premise that there is an autism epidemic are not valid in light of this research. This does not mean that environmental contributors should not be explored – it is often practical to cover all the bases in medical research – but a significant shift in resources is likely not justified.


[Slashdot]
[Digg]
[Reddit]
[del.icio.us]
[Facebook]
[Technorati]
[Google]
[StumbleUpon]

Intel Guest Blog: Xeon 5600

Posted on by

Intel Guest BlogWhen Intel launched the new Xeon® 5600 processor series in mid-March, it generated the expected banter in the marketplace about who now has the best-performing mainstream server CPU. You can check for yourselves of course, but the overwhelming conclusion has been that it is a processor to be reckoned with and that it sets the new bar for performance. That’s not what I want to write about, though. Yes, processor performance is still one of the most important factors in server decisions, but it is getting harder and harder to find people who evaluate their server CPU on performance alone. We find that our customers increasingly value functionality, and what I mean by that is all the “stuff” that enables them to increase the value they can provide their customers and their companies. So, rather than dwell on the dramatic performance increase – which we think can be as much as 60% (and you can read all about it here and the notes our lawyers made us write) – let me draw your attention to a few things that deliver new capabilities.

Increasing the performance of the CPU is one thing, but being able to deliver that incremental performance while keeping the power consumption at the same level as the previous generation is yet another. The reason Intel is able to do this better than anyone else is because of our obsession with Moore’s Law. We can’t help ourselves – it is a law, and we are law-abiding (and you should be too). We keep refining the process used to make the processor’s silicon so that the circuits get smaller and smaller. We are now at 32nm (that’s nano meters), while the previous generation and most of the industry are using 45nm technology. We go about diligently scanning circuit by circuit looking to get rid of or reduce hot spots, and the result is that we save a pocket full of cash that you or your company would otherwise have paid your local electricity company. The money you save might mean a raise, some extra spending cash or a nice vacation with your wife, spouse, dog or cat. How romantic is that? Won’t your better half think of you as more capable? The next time you hear a server geek say nanometers, think vacation!

Next time I write, you’ll hear about a couple of other cool things you can do with this new processor. For now let’s use code words and call them TXT and AES-NI acceleration. Got that? Feel like James Bond? Good. Enjoy your vacation.

Oh wait, one more thing … If you need servers, ask the guys from The Planet – they know all about this server stuff and how it can help you. I’m told they are friendly too.

Ciao!

-Adarsh Sogal
Intel Corporation

About the Author: Adarsh Sogal is the Marketing manager for Cloud Service Providers in Intel’s Data Center Group. He has been with Intel for 10 years focused on serving the needs of the service providers in Telco, IT Outsourcing, and Hosting market segments from all over the world.

StumbleUpon
Twitter
DZone
Digg
del.icio.us
Technorati

Pataki raising the libertarian alarm over Health Care, Obama presidency

Posted on by

Former New York Governor George Pataki had an extensive interview with the Wall Street Journal, to announce plans for his new national organization to Repeal ObamaCare. But the question of Obama and his presidency in general also came up.

From the WSJ:

I'm very excited about Revere America. This is a great group of people that I'm going to be working with and as I've said for some time, I do want to get more involved in the national political dialogue and I think this is the best way to do it. We're going to be kicking off the end of this week an effort to get a million signatures, e-mails calling for the repeal and the reform and replacement of the Obama health-care bill. I'm optimistic that we can not only change that and have a significant impact in undoing the government's takeover of the health-care system, but we can also help candidates move onto other issues so that those who believe in limited government and not having Washington usurp power from the people and sacrifice their future with trillions in debt, in borrowing -- then, we can have a very real impact. So, when I looked at the different options, one of which included running for the Senate, it was obviously very flattering that people were encouraging me to run. I think that by being chair of Revere America and this effort to rally Americans in support of freedom, as Paul Revere did this coming Sunday 235 years ago, I think that's the best way for me to have an impact now.

(Later in the interview)

what we're seeing is a president who is ideologically committed to higher taxes, to bigger government, to having government dictate to people how they lead their lives...

Note - Pataki has been rumored to have a "libertarian streak" in the past. During his administration in the last 1990s, the Governor made some favorable comments about what he called "alternatives to the War on Drugs."

Kristin Davis affirms Libertarian Party her Number One choice

Posted on by

LR EXCLUSIVE

"I am a Libertarian"

Manhattan Madame Kristin Davis left no room for doubt about her choice for Party for the Governor's race. She's going Libertarian.

Davis addressed the Manhattan-Queens-Staten Island Libertarian Party candidate forum Tuesday night and said she would seek the Libertarian nomination. "As some one who lost their freedom in an unconstitutional effort to jail me to stop me from speaking out, I am a poster child for freedom." Davis said "I am a Libertarian"

Davis said she would use her notoriety to get press coverage but use the media opportunity to push the Libertarian agenda.

She still must win the Party's nomination at convention in two weeks. Her opponent is Gunderlign Town Councilman and Attorney Warren Redlich. Redlich is also seeking the Republican nomination. Though, Davis herself has a Republican Campaign Consultant Roger Stone, welcomes Republican support, and has even called herself a "libertarian Republican," on occasion.

Austin newspaper: Libertarians more Republican aligned

Posted on by

From Eric Dondero:

Some inside the libertarian movement and without have tried to make the argument that the Libertarian Party has just as much in common with Democrats than Republicans. Not so, according to this local Austin newspaper.

Background; Paul Workman just defeated the favored Holly Turner in a run-off GOP primary for State Rep. Discussing the potential outcome of the general election, Patrick Brendel of SW Austin Community Impact reports:

The Libertarian Party is also fielding a candidate, Austin resident Kris Bailey. (Libertarian candidates are traditionally thought to siphon potential votes away from Republicans.)

Bobby Jindal aide attacked in New Orleans outside SRLC event

Posted on by

"Politically Motivated"

There was a serious incident of violence against two Young Republicans near the Omni Hotel where the Southern Republican Leadership Conference was held last weekend. The attack came after a fundraiser at Brennan's Restuarant/Tavern which was attended by Governor Jindal.

The news is now just being released. Right blogs out of Louisiana first reported the story. So far, the mainstream media, outside of Louisiana has remained largely silent.

From the Times-Picayune, April 13 "New Orleans police seeking information about attack on Jindal aide":

The news release issued by New Orleans police Tuesday evening does not identify Allee Baustch or her boyfriend, but notes that the 25-year-old female victim and the 28-year-old male victim were attacked in the 600 block of St. Louis Street after leaving an event at a restaurant in the 400 block of Royal Street.

Jindal's office acknowledged on Monday that Bautsch, his chief campaign fundraiser, was recovering from a broken leg after an altercation with a group of people in the Quarter on Friday night. Bautsch was attacked after a fundraiser for the Louisiana Republican Party at Brennan's Restaurant, 417 Royal Street, the governor's office said...

the Omni Royal Orleans Hotel... is less than two blocks from Brennan's.

New Orleans police say that the incident began about 10:45 p.m. when a group of three to five men made "derogatory comments" to Bautsch and her boyfriend... at least one of the men struck him repeatedly. The woman "fell to the ground and screamed," the news release said.

The Hayride blog has been on top of this story. They reported late last night on confirmation "that the attack was politically motivated."

Bautsch's boyfriend "suffered a concussion, a fractured nose and a broken jaw in the incident."

UPDATE!

According to local Louisiana media sources: One of the suspects was described as a white male in his 20s, about 6-foot-1 with a thin build, a beard and auburn colored hair in a pony tail. Other reports say: "there were protestors outside the event at Brennan's..."

Republicans need to reach out to Younger Voters with libertarian message

Posted on by

SPECIAL GUEST EDITORIAL

Seniors need to stop whining about health care cuts; "We can take care of ourselves"

by Jayne D. Frank, Michigan

As a lifelong Republican, I am sad to be moving away from the ways of my parents and grandparents and those friends around us that are Republicans. I fervently believe that the Republican Party is out of touch and has lost its way. This blog article is my way to bring attention to this growing problem. God knows, we have written our Representatives and Republicans for many months now about preserving our Constitution and stopping the progressive agenda of the Administration. We have requested that they get back to their core platform of lean, accountable government, with emphasis on the free enterprise system that made this Country great. What we get in return is rhetoric, stale, boilerplate responses, form letters and dozens of Republican Party requests for donations in the mail. They just don’t get what has happened to them.

During a Tea Party Express rally in Traverse City, MI on April 9 a speaker asked how many people were Republican, Democrat, Libertarian or Independent. I was stunned at the number of people putting their hands up as an Independent or Libertarian, many of whom I know were registered Republicans my husband and I were included with those that did. We are obviously disappointed by where our Republican Party is right now and what they have failed to do during the years when in power. Given the chance to fix the health care system, they initiated nothing until the Obamacare crises pushed them into a response that was late in gaining public support. Any American with a brain will tell you that they understand that Medicare and Social Security cannot sustain itself without changes. The Republicans have been talking about tort reform for years as a means to cut health care costs but have accomplished nothing. Given the immigration problem the Republicans have again done nothing for years and even allowed John McCain to speak for them in asserting that illegal aliens in this country should be treated the same as those that have achieved citizenship legally. Most of all, the Republicans are just as complicit in the out of control spending that is going on in our Government without any thought as to the long term ramifications of their actions.

The Republican Party has known for years that we cannot continue to be dependent on foreign sources of oil. They did nothing while in power to address energy independence. This Administration’s solution to the energy problem is taxation through Cap and Trade Legislation, a cost Americans cannot afford. Now we are faced with protecting America’s Constitution and getting our Republic back to its core principles and values. The solution is to replace incumbents in the 2010 election with fiscally conservative, principled men and women who are true Reagan free enterprise candidates. This writer does not feel that the Republican Party and Republican National Committee is doing the one thing that will regain power in the House and Senate, or even assuring a win at the 2012 Presidential election. That action is to focus solely on the 18-44 year old age group, which in large part won Obama his election.

The reason is clear. We are not listening or strongly recruiting into the Republican Party this strong demographic group. Of the 206 million people who voted in the 2008 election 110 million Americans between the age of 18 and 44 “could have voted” in that election. Only 42 million voted. The majority of that group who voted indicated that they had been contacted and even recruited by the Obama campaign. Many reported that they were never contacted by the Republican Party or Republican National Committee and try to excite them about voting or even finding out what their key concerns were for the future of our country. Even Ron Paul’s campaign for liberty group was using its best efforts to capture this important vote but wasted a valuable “resource” that could have taken the election away from Barack Obama.

The younger generation in America today is not faced with the same problems that middle-aged people and seniors are except for one thing. Our debt and deficit crisis is real, affects everyone, and the survival of our Country is dependant on our fixing this problem. The spiraling taxes and out of control spending will put an end to life as we know it. The only way to steer away from the path this Country is on, is to listen to what young people have to say, encourage and enlighten them with our experience, and then walk hand in hand with them, making sure they all get registered and get out to their voting places in November.

This demographic group is a much more secular group and are not necessarily attached to any religious institutions, much as was the establishment Republican Party in the past. According to the November 12 Pew Research article on this voting block, they are also much more diverse ethnically than the older generation in our country. So it is my thought that very conservative Republicans who cherish life and rebuke leftist political agendas, including the Republican National Committee, might be wise to target this age group explicitly to be able to see the failings of the current Obama Administration and how its policies will adversely affect Americans and their way of life for decades to come. We seniors have to stop whining about health care cuts and about what is going to be taken away from us, because we will do just fine taking care of ourselves, our families and our neighbors. It is this fragile 18-44 age generation that is going to be impacted the most being taxed into oblivion. They will not have the opportunities to financially succeed that we had, losing more and more liberty every day. They are worried about what the future holds for them. Let’s use our wisdom, our skill, our love and our traditional Republican values to get them properly engaged in the next election process

Thomas Sowell – Justice John Paul Stevens a "disaster" – Good Riddance!

Posted on by

A "disgrace": Pro-Terrorist Rights, Pro-Racial Quotas, Anti-Property Rights

Free market economist Dr. Thomas Sowell has a column expressing great relief at the departure of ultra-liberal Justice John Paul Stevens from the Supreme Court. Sowell cites two key libertarian issues: Property Rights and Affirmative Action.

From RCP:

When Supreme Court Justices retire, there is usually some pious talk about their "service," especially when it has been a long "service." But the careers of all too many of these retiring jurists, including currently retiring Justice John Paul Stevens, have been an enormous disservice to this country.

Justice Stevens was on the High Court for 35 years-- more's the pity, or the disgrace. Justice Stevens voted to sustain racial quotas, created "rights" out of thin air for terrorists, and took away American citizens' rights to their own homes in the infamous "Kelo" decision of 2005.

Justice John Paul Stevens wrote the Supreme Court opinion that expanded the Constitution's authorization of seizing private property for "public use" to seizing private property for a "public purpose." And who would define what a "public purpose" is? Basically, those who were doing the seizing. As Justice Stevens put it, the government authorities' assessment of a proper "public purpose" was entitled to "great respect" by the courts.

Sowell goes on to blame Republicans for nominating wimpy Democrat-friendly nominees and not fighting hard enough for a more principled libertarian/conservative dominated Court.

The Money Tree

Posted on by

They say that money doesn’t grow on trees. That’s true. It grows in banks.
I’m not talking about compounding interest either. I’m talking about creation of money right out of thin air. It is well known and understood that the Federal Reserve (and other central banks) print money at will. What’s not so well understood is [...]

What Value, Tea Partiers?

Posted on by

When not being denigrated as ‘teabaggers’, when not painted with a broad brush by focusing on the nuts any group has, the Tea Partiers can bring great value to the public discourse. For one thing, several of the Tea Partiers I know and have met have an excellent knowledge and grasp of the US Constitution.

I [...]

Don’t Get Mad, Get Even!

Posted on by

My 11th grade history once told my class that we have an illusion of power when it comes to our government. He said “You all will follow my instructions because I am the teacher, and I have the illusion of power. But there are 30 strong individuals in front of me, and you could easily ignore or overtake me at any moment. But you don’t, because you think I control you or you are too afraid of the consequences.”