Are Increasing Housing Prices a Good Thing?

The latest Case-Shiller data indicate that housing prices increased in December for the 7th straight month.  Most news accounts regarded this as good news.

But between 2000 and 2006, housing prices rose 80-90 percent, and they are still 35-40 percent above the 2000 level.  If most of the 2000-2006 increase was a bubble, then housing prices should be lower, not higher, based on fundamentals.

In that case, the U.S. is continuing to overinvest in housing.  So the higher prices are bad news.

This does not imply that policy should attempt to lower housing prices; it should just not care one way or the other.

Probing Photosynthesis

2D electronic spectroscopy reveals how plants use quantum mechanics to turn sunlight into energy. Chemists observed quantum mechanics at work in photosynthesis in marine algae, using femtosecond laser pulses to mimic the absorption of sunlight. They watched absorption and energy movement between spe

Shrinking Always Increases Costs

One of this month's articles describes the explosion of computational requirements for achieving 22 nm geometries. By some industry estimates, fabs to produce tomorrow's parts will cost $12-15 billion (with a "b") dollars instead of the "mere" $3 billion of today's version. Considering that customer

Driven to Distraction?

My car has a video screen in the dashboard that provides information on gas consumption, outside temperature, battery charge, and what song is playing on the radio. It's a nice 'bell-and-whistle' for car sellers, but a potentially deadly distraction for drivers. Now imagine dealing with traffic whil

IPCC Climate Report Science is Solid

Spread this around, as it nicely refutes the erroneous claim that the IPCC climate change science is not valid. Of course, it is. It also somewhat describes the process by which the reports are written.

Photo: Reuters A farmer shows a yellowing leaf of a vegetable seedling in a field in drought-hit Chenggong county, Yunnan province February 24, 2010.

Climate Scientists Defend IPCC Peer Review as Most Rigorous in History

by Stacy Feldman, Solve Climate (Feb. 26)

“The peer review process at the heart of the UN climate science panel is one of the most rigorous in the “history of science,” climate scientists said as they attempted to shore up trust in an institution that has been battered in the media.

It is hard to conceive of a more comprehensive and transparent process than that used by the IPCC,” said Neville Nicholls, a climate scientist and lead writer on parts of the most recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

“An error in the 3,000-page IPCC report that exaggerated the rapid melting of the Himalayan glaciers has triggered claims of sloppiness in the panel’s peer-review procedures, and the UN said today it would appoint an independent panel to review the planet’s top climate science body.

“The world’s climate change skeptics have gone a step further, taking advantage of the gaffe to promote their point of view that global warming is not real.

Scientists say that the calls for substantial reform of the IPCC’s expert and government peer-review process by opponents are overkill.

“Peer review can certainly be trusted,” said Paul Beggs, a climate scientist from Australia’s Macquarie University. This is particularly true of the IPCC peer review process, he said, which is “arguably the most rigorous and transparent peer review process in the history of science.”

Nicholls, a professor at Monash University in Victoria, Australia, said the IPCC 2007 Fourth Assessment report was subjected to several rigorous tiers of review. The study cites over 10,000 papers from the scientific literature, “most of which have already been through the peer-review process to get into the scientific literature.”

The report went through four separate reviews and received 90,000 comments from 2,500 reviewers, all of which are publicly available, along with the responses of the authors, Nicholls said.

Kurt Lambeck, a geophysicist at the Australian National University and president of the Australian Academy of Science, said the Himalayan blunder is one of few that “slipped through.”

Occasional errors are not surprising, said Kevin Walsh, a professor of meteorology at the University of Melbourne.

“Even rigorous peer review can let things slip through, or assess work incompletely,” Walsh said. “It’s not surprising, therefore, that in the several thousand pages of the IPCC reports, a few problems have been found with the review process.”

The fact that the error did not make it into the report summary — which contains all the findings of importance [...]

Podcast and Coal Ash Waste

There is a new Climate Files podcast, with news headlines, information on the recent EPA Townhall meeting, and the energy-related portion of Obama’s business speech.   I asked a question at the EPA townhall but no one was willing to address the Enbridge oil sands pipeline in Minnesota that I asked about.   It’s currently under construction, and there have already been oil spills.  Even with the new publicly-declared willingness of the EPA to answer our questions, there are still uncomfortable things they would rather not discuss.

One of the stories mentioned in the podcast is about coal ash waste, something that plagues the U.S.  even more than nuclear waste because there’s so much more of it.  Thirty-one sites have been newly identified as being very dangerous to public health.   “Arsenic, a potent human carcinogen, has been found at 19 of 31 sites at extremely high levels.” Did you know the use of coal can cause cancer?  Coal plants and their toxic waste are more prevalent than nuclear plants in the U.S. too.

“Two environmental groups today identified 31 sites in 14 states contaminated with coal-ash waste containing arsenic, cadmium, lead, selenium, and other toxic metals that can cause cancer and neurological damage to humans and poison fish and wildlife.

The report from the Environmental Integrity Project and Earthjustice released today relies on facts compiled from monitoring data and other information in the files of state agencies. The groups say these facts demand immediate federal regulation of coal combustion waste disposal, which is currently unregulated.

The newly identified coal combustion waste sites are in addition to the 70 sites identified by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in the wake of the disastrous Tennessee Valley Authority coal ash spill at the Kingston power plant in December 2008 – bringing the total to 101.

“The 100 some damage cases that are now well documented are just the tip of the iceberg,” said J. Russell Boulding, principal, Boulding Soil-Water Consulting, Bloomington, Indiana, who contributed to the report.

“Our experience in compiling these damage cases is that if there are data available on surface and groundwater quality in the vicinity of a CCW disposal area, you will find contamination. How many hundreds more damaged sites are out there waiting to be identified?” Boulding asked.

The 31 sites are located in: Delaware (1); Florida (3); Illinois (1); Indiana (2); Maryland (1); Michigan (1); Montana (1); Nevada (1); New Mexico (1); North Carolina (6); Pennsylvania (6); South Carolina (3); Tennessee (2); and West Virginia (2).

Active coal combustion waste disposal is still occurring at 25 out of the 31 sites.

Read more here. Waste from coal plants should not be tolerated any more than nuclear waste is accepted, but it seems like it is.

Naysayers Begin to Poo-Poo On Bloom Box’s Lofty Claims [Bloom Box]

Well, that didn't take long. Already analysts are crawling out of the woodwork to put the seemingly miraculous Bloom Box fuel cell in its place as yet another energy saving technology that won't perform as advertised.

This week it was IDC Energy Insights analyst Sam Jaffe, who said that while the fuel cell developed by Bloom Energy CEO K.R Sridhar and his team was definitely "not bogus," it just doesn't differentiate itself well enough from already available fuel cell technologies—especially as it pertains to price.

And the device's supposedly unique "fuel-switching" ability? Not unique at all, Jaffe claimed on his Energy Insight blog, in a post titled "Four Things Bloom Energy Forgot to Tell the World":

"Any high-temperature fuel cell should be able to do that. The fact that it's solid oxide and it's primarily ceramic opens up the possibility of making it much more cheaply, but every start-up in the energy field has an expensive product that they claim one day will be cheap. There is no reason to believe that Bloom has the ability to make it that much more cheaply. I'm pretty pessimistic about it."

Indeed. Further...fueling Jaffe's pessimism is the belief that a Bloom Box isn't really all that green if you're comparing it to the way we traditionally get power from the grid. At a cost of $7-$8/watt, he contends, the miracle box is no less expensive than photovoltaics that have been purchased at a rate of 100 kW at a time.

Another miracle energy tech bites the dust? Unless Bloom Energy can curb costs and green things up a bit, the answer for now is "maybe." Unless the unicorns get involved, anyway.

Still confused about fuel cells and the Bloom Box? Be sure to check out our regular Giz Explains column on this very topic! [IDC via CNET]


Michael Lee-Chin

The name Michael Lee-Chin may sound familiar to you, especially if have read the Forbes Billionaire list anytime between 2001 and today, where he has been featured every year. Yes, Mr. Lee-Chin is a billionaire.

Coming from humble beginnings and starting his career with a degree in engineering, L

Apple Threatened Me With Legal Action For Selling a Broken Step From Their New York Store On eBay [Apple]

Last week we posted an eBay auction where the seller—an ex-employee of Apple—was selling a broken step from the Fifth Ave New York Apple store. Threatened with legal action, he was forced to remove it. Here's his story.

Hi. I?m Mark Burstiner. I host a show called The Circuit. I?m an all around geek, I?m a project manager on a freelance basis, and I consult in digital strategy. I want to talk to you about a story that?s still unfolding.

It may seem trite, but for me, it?s about the principle at this point. I also want to thank Gizmodo for taking this story, and allowing me to publish it in my own words. Multi billion dollar corporations should not be able to bully an innocent ex-employee into cooperation, especially when the corporations are at fault.

A year and a half ago, I was an Apple employee at the Fifth Ave flagship store. In that time, there was a silly, unfortunate accident. A woman came down the magnificent spiral staircase, and dropped a Snapple bottle. Yes, a Snapple bottle. After bouncing once or twice, the bottle severely cracked one of the steps. Since these steps are so well engineered, the structural integrity of the step wasn't compromised, but it was certainly a cosmetic problem. Later that month, four or five very big men came to replace the step with a new one. After they were finished, and the steps that were replaced were out on the curb, I left the store. Off the clock and in civilian clothes, I asked the contractors who were there on behalf of Seele, the manufacturer, if I could have a step. "It could be a collectible some day," I said. They, of course, saw no problem with it, and even collectively helped me lift it into a vehicle. That is the story of how I came to be in possession of a step from the spiral staircase at Apple Fifth Ave.

Fast forward to six days ago, February 20, 2010. I?ve been cleaning up my apartment, because I?m going to be moving soon, and I realized I really didn't want to move (for the third time) with this step. It should be about time I put it up on eBay, see if anybody wants it and see if I can?t make some cash to help with moving at the same time. That makes sense, right? I mean people end up with rare memorabilia all the time. After all, I did procure it through totally legitimate means. I asked for permission from the person who?s possession it was in. They helped me lift it into the vehicle for chrissakes. We should be all hunky dory, right? Wrong.

The very next day, the eBay posting got a lot of press, and it even ended up here on the Giz. Not 24 hours later, the stair was up to $255, dozens of eBay questions, and 200+ watchers with 9 days to go on the auction. Things were looking good until I was reached out to by a Seele VP. This gentleman informed me that Apple has caught wind of this and is quite unhappy. He requested I remove the eBay listing so that we may work this out when we both had more time. Of course, I?m a reasonable guy, so I complied immediately.

Later that same day, we spoke again. He assured me he was doing me a favor by reaching out to me and requesting that I remove the posting and return the glass step. He repeatedly made the point that if I complied that he would be so kind as so email Apple and tell them I?ve been cooperative. "Oh, how magnanimous of you," I thought to myself. As tempting as it might be to relinquish what is now my property, I passed on the offer.

The VP continuously threatened me with "thousands of dollars in legal fees" because both Seele and Apple would not hesitate to take legal action. Even after repeated explanations of how I came into possession of the step, he continued to mitigate for Apple and attempt to make the point that it was Apple?s position that since I was on Apple payroll as an employee (part-time, non-exempt, off the clock, out of uniform), that requesting the step was on par with giving a direct order to the contractor. That, if you will pardon my language, is bullshit. I don?t buy it. He proceeded to assure me that Apple would take the position that anything that began in its stores is Apple?s property. Frankly, Apple can take any stance they like, it doesn't change the facts.

This man then attempted to convince me that if I were to move forward with not relinquishing the step, that it would be my responsibility in a court of law to prove that I had not stolen it. This, again, is bullshit. In the United States, we are innocent until proven guilty. If Apple would like to attempt to prove that I managed to wrestle a 250lb step from the five very large men handling it, then they are on the good drugs, and I want to know where I can get some.

What this sounds like to me is Seele trying to save face because Apple is furious that they were irresponsible enough to relinquish ownership of the tread. Though it may be embarrassing for both corporations, it may simply be a lesson learned at a high price. Let me put it this way: If you caught a foul ball at a World Series game, got it signed by a player, received a high five from the security guard on the way out of the stadium, and went home, that ball is now yours, right? It started as one entity?s property, and through a series of consensual transactions, it ended up in your hands. Now, let?s say a year and a half later, the player who signed it is huge, and you decide to put it up for auction. If the MLB reached out to you and said, "Hey! No way, buddy. That was OURS. Hand it over!" Guess what? That wouldn't fly.

The next day, we spoke once more over the phone. Again, I heard the same points from the man, but this time I did not take a passive approach. I made it quite clear that if he wanted the step, he?s more than welcome to purchase it from me, or participate in the eBay auction. He made me an offer lower than the most recent bid on the auction, and I declined. At this point, I?ve lost time and money due to dealing with this. Not to mention, now that the step has seen some press, the demand is growing. (I?ve been receiving eBay messages all the way up until this morning.) He assured me if I did not comply, my information would be forwarded to Apple, and the conversation ended.

As far as I?m aware, I have done nothing illegal. I have not stolen. I have not deceived in any way. The step is not confidential, and it is not IP. The step is the very same that any New Yorker could see by walking into Apple Fifth Ave. The only thing I am guilty of is taking the risk of throwing out my back through having to move the step multiple times. I saw an opportunity, I asked for permission, received it, and proceeded. I won?t allow a major corporation to bully me into a corner. At the time of this posting, it has been seven full days since I put the listing up, and I haven?t heard from Apple directly a single time. I have every right to sell my property, and I plan to do so.

Here?s what I?m going to do. I?ve put the tread back up for auction, but have shortened the auction period from 10 days to 3, starting at the same $200 price point and I?m dropping the buy-it-now option. I just want to get rid of this thing. If it sells for a lot, great. If it sells for a little, whatever. Either way, I?ll keep you posted if I hear from Apple or on any other developments.

I realize this has been long-winded, but it was important to me to share this. I just don?t think it?s right for corporations to take cases that might otherwise be passed off as trivial and turn them into a week-long ordeal, all for the sake of paranoia. If you?ve read through all this, thank you. I appreciate your attention and time.


The World Cup Goes High-Tech [World Cup]

From the ball to special uniforms that make you jump higher, this year's World Cup could very well be the most techie soccer tournament the world's ever seen.

The ball, for example (called the Jabulani, fyi), isn't stitched together—it's thermally bonded. It's also the roundest ball ever created for a World Cup. Last I checked it was about $140 and available to the public, so get Googlin' if you want to kick around a near perfect, leak proof sphere.

Those uniforms I mentioned? Somehow, thanks to specially designed Adidas "TechFit" crisscrosses in the back, they allegedly help a player increase vertical leap, speed, endurance and power by anywhere from 0.8 to 4 percentage points throughout a match. Sounds like snake oil to me, but that could just be jealousy talking since I didn't have access to the tech during my team's 11-3 drubbing yesterday afternoon. You can see the shirt on number 8 in this video:

Even the shoes got an overhaul for South Africa this year. Looking more like carbon fiber inserts on my friend's Audi A5 than soccer boots, they're light, streamlined and contain something called a Powerspine.

Again, there's more Adidas witchcraft at play here, but they promise the spine reduces the chance of an ACL injury. Nothing wrong with that. [CrunchGear]


Two grassroot skeptic events coming up | Bad Astronomy

There are two skeptical events coming up you should know about:

skepchickcamplogo

1) The first Skepchicamp, a skepticamp thrown by the Skepchicks, will be held on Saturday, March 6 in Chicago. You can get more details here. Skepticamps are audience-participation events, where everyone can help in some way. They’re fun, so if you’re in Chicago then, give it a shot.

genconlogo

2) GenCon is a gaming convention held in Indianapolis, and this year there will be a skeptic track. That’s from August 5-8.

I’m glad to see more grassroots skeptical events getting put together. They’re great ways to meet like-minded folks, to learn new things, and to have a lot of fun.


The Pentagon Wants You—Yes, You!—to Develop a Life-Saving Robot [Robots]

Hey you! Be all that you can be! Help the U.S. military design an autonomous robot capable of ferrying injured troops from the front lines to safety with little or no help from a human hand:

It's no joke—direct from the Pentagon comes word that the Army wants someone out there, beyond its secretive five walls and uber secret underground lair, to develop a robot with powerful limbs and grippers that will be able to adapt to "the large number of body positions and types of locations in which casualties can be found."

Oh, and not that this is a surprise or anything, but the robot also needs to be able to enter, navigate and escape terrain "without prior knowledge" of the geography. Flying blind, so to speak. Finally, if the robot can perform as part of a hive mind, and cooperate with a swarm of other robot rescuers, that'd be just peachy with the military too. You have until March 24 to submit your life-saving ideas. [Pentagon via New Scientist]


Introducing the Bonus Riddle

Tom and I have been posting a riddle every Saturday since early November, and it’s been a lot of fun for us.  The “prize” has always been to pick a research topic for the following Monday’s post, and we’ve sure had some interesting subjects come up.  We decided to add something extra to the whole riddle concept, so we’re introducing a “Bonus Riddle”.  Everybody who has solved a previous riddle will be eligible to participate in the bonus riddle.

The Universe - Season 4 DVD Collection

The prize for solving the bonus riddle will be the season 4 complete DVD set of “The Universe”.  This is a special edition, 4-DVD set containing 12 episodes (plus never-aired segments) from A&E Home Video.  This video collection was only released 02/23/10, is over 10 hours total running time, and includes features on comets and meteors.

I bet I got your attention with that, didn’t I!

Okay, here’s how it’ll work:

  • Tom and I will post the Bonus Riddle at noon CDT, March 15th.  That’s Monday…  the Ides of March (sounds ominous, doesn’t it?). You’ll have two more chances to solve a riddle to become eligible to participate; the one on March 6th, and the one on March 13th.  Good luck on those.
  • Guesses will be by email to Tom or Marian.
  • You will have 24 hours to submit your guesses; from noon CDT March 15th until noon CDT March 16th.
  • You get three guesses.
  • Comments will be closed on the Bonus Riddle until after the submission deadline.
  • The winner will be the first person to submit the correct answer.  If nobody solves the riddle by noon CDT March 16th, it will be opened for everybody to give it a shot.
  • Tom will have the final say in any controversy.

This is going to be SO much fun!  We’ll be reminding you of the Bonus Riddle as the date approaches, so nobody gets bushwhacked.  Also, Tom and I both will be contributing clues to this riddle.  We’re planning on making the Bonus Riddle a regular event, and hopefully we’ll always be able to offer a prize as nice as this one.

End of the Euro?

With the financial problems in Greece, the entire Euro zone is facing a crisis that some say shows how painfully flawed the Euro project was from the very beginning. The crisis calls into question the concept of bringing together countries — some rich, some poor — with a one-currency-for

Is Social Networking Slipping?

Tweeting, twittering, 'friending,' and other electronic social linking is soaring. Even Google's gotten into the game. But is it fun and productive enough to justify the risks? Some online businesses have sprung up to help people who aren't comfortable with their personal info reaching far-flung unk

The Cancer Answer?

Magnetic resonance spectroscopy has been shown to distinguish between healthy and cancerous tissue, and researchers at Temple U. have shown that they can distinguish between different parts of plants, using electro-spray mass spectrometry. Could new spectrometry methods provide a faster, less-intrus

Making It Work Instead of Making It Right

In designing new semiconductor devices, modeling the hardware logic in software can dramatically reduce time-to-market. Getting the model to mimic the hardware exactly, however, represents something of a challenge. But is such exactitude necessary? According to this piece from System Level Design, t

Free Ride on a Commercial Space Ship

Rollout of SpaceShipTwo stirred many to buy tickets for a first ride — even though price is as high as final destination, i.e. space. Say someone lost nerve and gave you their ticket. Would you blast off with the other five passengers?

The preceding article is a "sneak peek" from Aerospace Te

Vancouverites on Hosting the Olympics

I have enjoyed watching the Olympics (short track is my favorite), but I'm glad the U.S. taxpayer did not foot the bill.   Apparently many Vancouverites are not persuaded the city got a good deal:

While hundreds of thousands of people have streamed onto the streets to enjoy (some of them to excess late at night) the Olympic party, there is still an undercurrent of crankiness and apprehension in the city. ...

Security costs, first estimated at $165 million, are now headed toward $1 billion.

So maybe the cost-benefit analysis mentioned in my earlier post, which concluded the Games are a loser for Canada, was too optimistic!