The world can enjoy higher standards of living and more travel, while drastically cutting emissions to avoid dangerous climate change but only with sweeping changes to our infrastructure, the natural world and agriculture, a new analysis has found.
The UK government analysis also assumes that billions of people will remain in dire poverty at mid-century, despite efforts to lift them to greater prosperity, as the population rises to an estimated nine billion people.
Dealing with greenhouse gas emissions will require a transformation of electricity generation, including an expansion of renewable energy and nuclear power, as well as more public transport and changes to the built environment, according to the key findings of the Global Calculator, an online software tool developed by the Department of Energy and Climate Change (Decc), with partners.
The calculator is intended to show the likely outcomes of a variety of choices that policymakers and the public can make to tackle global warming, such as investing in nuclear, insulating houses, making electrical appliances more efficient and using electric vehicles.
Some of the findings are likely to be controversial. The analysis suggests that to cope with the food demands of a rising population, much more land will need to be brought under cultivation, which could have harmful side effects on biodiversity, and genetically modified crops may be needed to boost yields.
Far more intensive agriculture will be necessary, with the amount of beef raised in confined systems vast cattle warehouses in which the animals rarely or never see grass accounting for as much as 15% of the global herd by mid-century. Consumers must also switch away from eating beef to poultry and vegetables.
The analysis also found that deforestation must be halted and the extent of forested land increased by between 5% and 15% by 2050 a mammoth task, given the failure of efforts so far to halt forest destruction.
However, the analysis depends on several key factors. For instance, within the emissions limits required to hold global warming to less than 2C above pre-industrial levels, in theory it ought to be possible for everyone in the world to travel 12,400 KM a year, up from an average of 8,300 KM a year at present.
Currently, people in the US travel an average of 16,000 KM a year, and in the EU about 10,000 KM, while the average Indian travels 6,000 KM and Chinese less than 2,000 KM a year. So the increases in air travel in the developed world seen in recent years, thanks to the proliferation of cheap flights, will have to be severely limited in future to stay within these levels.
Similarly, nutrition that fulfills our daily needs, of 2,100 calories a day, is possible for the entire planet, but is unlikely to reach everyone without a transformation in global equity. According to the models used to develop the calculator, billions of people are likely to remain in poverty at mid-century, and they are unlikely to benefit much in the form of the better nutrition, better housing or increases in travel which are theoretically possible.
See more here:
Yes, we can live well and avoid climate disaster, says UK government
- Seaching for Condors in the Andes - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Visiting "The Mayor" again - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The fantasy boot in my dream of childhood - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Day 53 54 55 - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- www.acb.my - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- day 22 - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Hoover Dam Grand Canyon Byrce Canyon and another little incident... - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Amazing first week - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- It's Been Awhile - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Busan - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Existential Migration: Feeling at Home as the Foreigner - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Passport Chop - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Travel Photography with a Disposable Camera (it’s NOT an oxymoron) - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Miss Travel Girl - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Cape to Cairo - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Alison Travels - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- True Nomads - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- How the Economy Affected 16 Travellers in 2009 - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Do Travel Disasters Make the Best Travel Stories? - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Mother of All Trips - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- A story by Kudra Ricketts - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Auckland City - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Another Published Article Penny - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- A Sparkling Xmas Surprise Penny - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Sandboarding - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- The Way Of Make Money In Runescape - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Highway 1 California - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- cancun on thanksgiven - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- On tour with Louise and Zane 46 students - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Hvad vi har lavet siden Gili - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Thailand Check. Laos here we come. - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Team America - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Tour Operator of Bangladesh Sundarbans Adventure Tour Package - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- The Last Leg - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Dec 13 2009 - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Latest Border News - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- The Wandering Soul’s Wander Tales - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Adventure Rob - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- The Golden Papaya - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Support Passports with Purpose 2009 - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- Vagabonding at 60 - December 13th, 2009 [December 13th, 2009]
- The Books that Inspired Us to Travel in 2009 - December 14th, 2009 [December 14th, 2009]
- Zululand drakensberg Lesotho and the wild coast - December 14th, 2009 [December 14th, 2009]
- The Beautiful Higlands - December 14th, 2009 [December 14th, 2009]
- Loch Ness to Inverness and Culloden - December 14th, 2009 [December 14th, 2009]
- Aqaba The Little Merman - December 14th, 2009 [December 14th, 2009]
- Royal Deeside and the Castle Trail - December 14th, 2009 [December 14th, 2009]
- Southward in the Rain to Glamis Castle and Crail - December 14th, 2009 [December 14th, 2009]
- Iguassu Falls - December 14th, 2009 [December 14th, 2009]
- Stirling Castle and Edinburgh - December 14th, 2009 [December 14th, 2009]
- Edinburgh Old Town - December 14th, 2009 [December 14th, 2009]
- Galapagos II - December 14th, 2009 [December 14th, 2009]
- El Chalten and Fitz Roy Massif - December 14th, 2009 [December 14th, 2009]
- Semuc Champey - December 14th, 2009 [December 14th, 2009]
- Mechanical Problems in Flight - December 14th, 2009 [December 14th, 2009]
- "ACDC Tour Budapest without a satnav" - December 14th, 2009 [December 14th, 2009]
- Liat Airlines Stay Away - December 14th, 2009 [December 14th, 2009]
- Bariloche - December 14th, 2009 [December 14th, 2009]
- Lundi Macon - December 14th, 2009 [December 14th, 2009]
- Planning Australia Tour in Best way - December 14th, 2009 [December 14th, 2009]
- Family Fun In Breckenridge Colorado - December 14th, 2009 [December 14th, 2009]
- 5 Weeks in Australia - December 14th, 2009 [December 14th, 2009]
- The Movies and Music that Inspired Us to Travel in 2009 - December 16th, 2009 [December 16th, 2009]
- A wonderful Japanes experience - December 16th, 2009 [December 16th, 2009]
- So traveling again to a new part of the world - December 16th, 2009 [December 16th, 2009]
- Kangaroo roo roo a pinapple shake a tree.... - December 16th, 2009 [December 16th, 2009]
- Cutting wedding cost in the depression - December 16th, 2009 [December 16th, 2009]
- Pineapple Farm - December 16th, 2009 [December 16th, 2009]
- South India Chennai Pondicherry Auroville... - December 16th, 2009 [December 16th, 2009]
- Back to Amarpurkashi Village Life... - December 16th, 2009 [December 16th, 2009]
- MIA - December 16th, 2009 [December 16th, 2009]
- The most northern of Thailand - December 16th, 2009 [December 16th, 2009]
- Photo's - December 16th, 2009 [December 16th, 2009]
- Trip to Marleshwar - December 16th, 2009 [December 16th, 2009]
- Season's Greetings from Berkeley - December 16th, 2009 [December 16th, 2009]
- Small hiccup - December 16th, 2009 [December 16th, 2009]
- Thailand Laos and Vietnam in Three Weeks - December 16th, 2009 [December 16th, 2009]
- On the road again - December 16th, 2009 [December 16th, 2009]
- Part Two The Map Part Way in Cabal - December 16th, 2009 [December 16th, 2009]
- Heading Back North - December 16th, 2009 [December 16th, 2009]