Michael Rogers, Practical Futurist | Presenter, public …

For over twenty years, he has provided a powerful catalyst for organizations to create a vision of the future and the will to innovate.He delivers a dynamic and entertaining vision of change, blending technology, economics, demographics, culture and human nature.

Michael brings real business experience and a deep understanding of technology.He adds the keen eye of an investigative journalist and the story-telling skills of a best-selling novelist. He understands how business operates, and knows the difference between science fiction and useful forecasting.

He has worked in sectors ranging from finance, marketing, and healthcare to media, information technology, consumer goods and more. Michael customizes his presentations to best fit both the audience and the goals of the event.

Full bio | Working with Michael

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Michael Rogers, Practical Futurist | Presenter, public …

Four Scenarios for 2030 | World Future Society

Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds

Author(s): National Intelligence Council

Publisher: CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform (2012)

Binding: Paperback, 166 pages

List Price: $10.99

Read Global Trends 2030 online at http://www.dni.gov/nic/globaltrends.

How will individual empowerment, diffusion of power, aging populations, mass urbanization, food and water scarcity, and accelerating change shape the world of 2030?

The National Intelligence Councils new report, Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, explores these megatrends and shapes them into four very different scenarios for the world 17 years from today.

This succinct report is an analysis of core trends and potential game changers, including:

Most World Future Society members and practicing futurists have been studying and speaking on these trends for years, but breathless media coverage of this report suggests that these trends are still entering the intellectual bloodstream. And, if the delusional political discourse surrounding Americas recent elections is any indication, Americas political class may find this report jarring. Reality intrudes.

Policy makers and corporate leaders should closely study the four scenarios outlined in the NICs report. Each scenario creates valuable memories of the future that help leaders as they grapple with the long-term implications of todays decisions.

1. The Stalled Engines scenario is a worst-case scenario in which the Pacific Rim is engulfed in nationalistic brinkmanship and conflict, global growth slows, the EU disintegrates, the United States turns inward, and globalization unravels.

2. In the best-case Fusion scenario, an interconnected East and West work together to address the globes major challenges, innovation blossoms, and most players prosper.

3. In the Gini out of the Bottle scenario, gaping extremes define the global stage and within countries, as the best positioned reap all the benefits of the new world order.

4. And finally, there is the Non-State scenario, in which cities, NGOs, global elites, terror groups, and multinationals drive global change and chaos.

These four scenarios should provide decision makers plenty of food for thought. Although not hewing to the classic double uncertainty matrix as developed by the Global Business Network, these four scenarios are sure to be studied by practicing futurists and students of strategic foresight.

Yet, below the surface of the report lay significant tensions and large, open questions with very different outcomes dependent on their resolution. Four critical tensions emerge that deserve much wider discussion: (1) organizational; (2) East and West, North and South; (3) scarcity and abundance; and (4) technology and jobs.

Organizational tensions. Its Non-State scenario clearly demonstrates the NICs challenge with the unit of analysis in this study. Is the unit of analysis the traditional nationstate, invented in Europe and responsible for so much progress and pain in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries? Is the unit of analysis the global hub cities housing most of what Richard Florida calls the creative class and responsible for most innovation and a large amount of the worlds economic output? Is the unit of measure human networks like NGOs, movements, and multinationals? Or is the unit of measure, as suggested by Russian contributors to this study, civilizations? Which one of these will be the driving force in the twenty-first century and the correct unit of analysis for this study today?

The answer appears less than clear. The authors of the NIC report clearly struggled with this issue. The easiest, most intellectually comfortable unit of analysis is the nationstate, but I am skeptical. We now have a global elite living in an interconnected, global network of hub cities for which the nationstate is an anachronism. And, with technology empowering the individual, the battle for the twenty-first century could just be the battle of the self-organizing swarm against the command and control pyramidthe cover story for a piece I recently wrote for the MENSA Bulletin. Think Wikipedia, Wikileaks, Anonymous, and Christian house churches in China. So, which is it? Which one of these is the primary right unit of analysis, the engine of change? This is the first tension.

East and West, North and South tensions. Assuming present trends continue, economic power will continue to shift eastward and southward. The NIC report features several graphs plotting the relative decline of U.S. and European economic power as the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) and the Next Eleven (South Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, Turkey, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Egypt, Iran, Mexico, the Philippines, and Nigeria) catch up and urbanize. But how will the West and the United States adjust to this tectonic change? How will our global institutions, built at the end of World War II by the victorious Americans, adapt to this new, multipolar world? The NICs report generally looks at this issue with an American orientation to the world. Will America return to its traditional, domestic, and North American focus, or will it retain a global focus, acting as a kind of first among equals?

Scarcity and abundance tensions. A significant focus of the NICs report is on future scarcity of water, food, and energy. Extrapolating future needs in these areas with significant technological progress presents a dark, dystopian future. But, if anything, technological progress appears to be accelerating. Will technological progress in genetically modified seeds, water filtration and conservation, hydraulic fracturing, and solar energy meet or exceed these needs? I am a technological optimist and believe they will. Malthus was proved wrong. Our species is impressively inventive and adaptive. We have a habit of innovating ourselves out of the box we find ourselves in. And yet only a fool would downplay the extreme needs of the future, especially water.

Technology and jobs tensions. So-called technological unemployment as anticipated in books like Race Against the Machine (by Eric Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, Digital Frontier Press, 2011) is only hinted at in the NICs report. The facts are that (1) algorithms will automate away many process-heavy white-collar jobs (potentially including many medical professionals involved in diagnosis) and (2) robotics will automate away most manufacturing jobs.

The creative class, highly skilled technology workers, and the intellectually agile will still thrive in this world, but what are the prospects for the others? If technological progress and change are accelerating, technological unemployment may knock many workers off the treadmill at the exact time that they should be picking up the pace. Could technological unemployment and the accelerating rate of change slow the rise of the global middle class and lead to a highly polarized global society based on intellect and creativity? Or will the creative destruction from software and robots be followed quickly by wholly new industries? The key question is if and how the displaced can retrain in an accelerating environment requiring higher levels of cognition and creativity. New categories of employment will be created, but will the displaced have the skills to step in? My sense is that technological unemployment will set off a revolution in learning, skill training and certification, and cognition enhancementnot an arms race, but a brains race.

How these four tensions will resolve themselves is difficult to say, but the answers will certainly define 2030.

Robert Moran is a partner in the Brunswick Group and leads the firms insights practice in the Americas. He frequently writes on trends in commerce, communications, and market research.

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Four Scenarios for 2030 | World Future Society

George Schofield

Futurist, author and developmental psychologist George Schofield spent a distinguished career as a consultant before turning his focus on a stage of life that few have studied in depth: the span between middle age and elderly.

His groundbreaking book, After 50 It’s Up to Us, eloquently explains why and how we all must face, head on, the new realities that await us as we age.

His insights have galvanized readers and audiences, who find his message powerful, inspirational, and timely. His is a completely fresh perspective on how to create the later life you want when the roads leading to that life, once clearly signposted, are filled with detours.

All content 2015 George Schofield. All rights reserved.

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George Schofield

55 Jobs Of The Future | Future Jobs | Futurist Predictions …

Last week I was speaking at an event in Istanbul. As usual, once I landed at the airport, I made my way to the customs area where I was greeted by no fewer than 1,000 people in line ahead of me.

Long lines in airport customs is not unusual. But as I waded through this 45-minute process I couldnt help but do some mental calculations surrounding the massive waste of human capital throughout this whole process. Since there were two separate customs areas at the Istanbul airport, my rough calculations came out to well over 10 million man-hours a year wasted at this one single airport.

Its not unusual for governments to waste peoples time over what they like to phrase as the greater good. However, this entire security process will eventually be automated down to a fraction of the time it takes today, eliminating the need for over 90% of all customs agents.

The same goes for TSA-like security agents on the front end of airports. Within the next decade, 90% of those jobs will be gone as well. All of them, automated out of existence.

A recent article in The Economist quotes Bill Gates as saying at least a dozen job types will be taken over by robots and automation in the next two decades, and these jobs cover both high-paying and low-skilled workers. Some of the positions he mentioned were commercial pilots, legal work, technical writing, telemarketers, accountants, retail workers, and real estate sales agents.

Indeed, as Ive predicted before, by 2030 over 2 billion jobs will disappear. Again, this is not a doom and gloom prediction, rather a wakeup call for the world.

Will we run out of work for the world? Of course not. Nothing is more preposterous than to somehow proclaim the human race no longer has any work left to do. But having paid jobs to coincide with the work that needs to be done, and developing the skills necessary for future work is another matter.

Our goal needs to be focused on the catalytic innovations that create entirely new industries, and these new industries will serve as the engines of future job creation, unlike anything in all history.

I have written in the past about future industries. This time Id like to focus on many of the future jobs within these industries that currently dont exist.

Facing the Transition Ahead

Many people are scared of the future. With every science fiction movie that portrays technology as evil, and lets be honest, thats the theme of almost every science fiction movie thats ever existed, its easy to develop some paranoia about the dangers ahead.

However, much of todays technology is giving us super-human attributes. The same technology that gets blamed for eliminating our jobs, is also giving us capabilities beyond our wildest dreams. We have instant access to friends and family, instant access to answers for almost any question we ask, and instant entertainment if ever we get bored.

We can now think-faster, know-faster, and do-faster than ever before. We no longer end up being the last to know.

At the same time, every new technology also requires new skill sets for those working in those environments. Here are just a few of the skills that will be highly prized in the future.

14 Hot New Skills

1. Transitionists Those who can help make a transition.

2. Expansionists A talent for adapting along with a growing environment.

3. Maximizers An ability to maximize processes, situations, and opportunities.

4. Optimizers The skill and persistence to tweak variables until it produces better results.

5. Inflectionists Finding critical inflection points in a system will become a much-prized skill.

6. Dismantlers Every industry will eventually end, and this requires talented people who know how to scale things back in an orderly fashion.

7. Feedback Loopers Those who can devise the best possible feedback loops.

8. Backlashers – Ever- new technology will have its detractors, and each backlash will require a response.

9. Last Milers Technologies commonly reach a point of diminishing returns as they attempt to extend their full capacity to the end user. People with the ability to mastermind these solutions will be in hot demand.

10. Contexualists In between the application and the big picture lays the operational context for every new technology.

11. Ethicists There will be an ever-growing demand for people who can ask the tough question and standards to apply moral decency to some increasingly complex situations.

12. Philosophers With companies in a constant battle over my-brain-is-bigger-that-your-brain, it becomes the overarching philosophy that wins the day.

13. Theorists Every new product, service, and industry begins with a theory.

14. Legacists Those who are passionate and skilled with leaving a legacy.

Predicting future jobs is an exercise that involves looking at future industries and speculating on ways in which they will be different than the workforce today. Business management, engineering, accounting, marketing, and sales are all necessary skills for the future, but the work involved will also be different.

At the same time there will be many less-obvious positions that will need to be created. This is about those less-obvious positions.

The following is not an exhaustive list, nor do these job titles all have good explanations. Rather, this column is intended to be a thought-generator, an idea-sparker, to help you draw your own conclusions.

Personal Rapid Transit Systems (PRTs)

PRTs like Hyperloop, Skytran, Jpods, and ET3 offer a new dimension in transportation. They operate above the fray, independent of the frenetic energy of todays highways, airports, train, and bus depots. Details here.

1. Station Designers & Architects

2. Circulation Engineers

3. Traffic Flow Analyzers

4. Command Center Operators

5. Traffic Transitionists

6. Impact Minimizers

7. Demand Optimizers

8. Secondary Opportunity Developers

9. Feedback Loopers

10. Construction Teams PRTs have the potential to become the largest infrastructure project the earth has ever seen, costing literally trillions of dollars and employing hundreds of millions of people. Details here.

Fog nets for harvesting water

Atmospheric Water Harvesters

One of todays most significant breakthroughs is happening in the area of atmospheric water harvesters, being developed by a new breed of water innovators intent on solving one of earths most vexing problems.

11. Site Collection Lease Managers

12. System Architects

13. Water Supply Transitionists

14. Purification Monitors

15. Impact Assessors

Creating the God Globe

The God Globe is intended to be a master command center for planet earth, where we will, for the first time ever, begin to control natures greatest forces. Details here.

16. Global System Architect

17. Data Integration Manager

18. Inflectionists Those who can pinpoint the optimal intersection of time, place, and information for change to occur.

19. Fear Containment Managers

20. Privacy Theorists, Philosophers, and Ethicists

The Sharing Economy

The sharing economy is creating some amazing business models around the use of other peoples stuff.

21. Sharability Auditors People who analyze homes and businesses for sharable assets.

22. Corporate Sharing Managers

23. Opportunity Spotters

24. Impact Assessors

25. Involvement Specialists

The Quantified Self

The quantified self is all about building a measurable information sphere around each of us. As we get better acquainted with the Delphic maxim know thyself, we will become far more aware of our deficiencies and the pieces needed to shore up our shortfalls. Details here.

26. Quantified Self Assessment Auditors

27. Data Contexualists

28. Deficiency Analyzers

29. Skill Quantifiers

30. Bio-Waste Optimizers

31. Guardians of Privacy

Future Sports

Sports have become the ultimate form of storytelling. Each contest is a test of the human spirit, with good guys and bad guys pairing off, amidst great drama, as contestants test their limits overcoming adversity, to achieve an unknown outcome. And all of this is happening in real time. Details here.

32. Simulation Specialists

33. Genetic Modification Designers and Engineers

34. Body Modification Ethicists

35. Athlete Qualification Analyzers

36. Cradle to Grave Lifecycle Managers

37. Super Baby Designers

38. Super Baby Psychologists

39. Super Baby Advocates

Commercial Drone Industry

The U.S. Congress has mandated the FAA develop a plan to incorporate drones into national airspace by Sept. 30, 2015. Many in this new industry are chomping at the bit to get started.

40. Drone Classification Gurus Different laws will apply to different classifications of drone vehicles.

41. Drone Standards Specialists

42. Drone Docking Designers and Engineers

43. Operator Certification Specialists

44. Environmental Minimizers Sound diminution engineers, visual aesthetic reductionists, etc.

45. Drone Traffic Optimizers

46. Automation Engineers

47. Backlash Minimizers Ever-new technology has its detractors, this perhaps more than most.

On the path to a trillion sensors

Our Trillion-Sensor Future

Industry experts are now projecting that we will reach 1 trillion sensors in the world by 2024, and 100 trillion by 2036.

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55 Jobs Of The Future | Future Jobs | Futurist Predictions …

GNU/Linux Distribution Timeline

After a short essay on methodology were curious to find out whether there are any master-snoops among our audience. We present exhibit M, a rare specimen we know nothing about but for the fact that it was compiled from bits of Gentoo. Hence we call publicly for any hints or leads regarding this elusive distribution!

Meanwhile, a gentle reader has drawn to our attention the fact that Damn Vulnerable Linux is currently listed as a Slax derivate by the major pundit places, while it certainly boasted a Damn Small Linux pedigree in its very beginnings. The switch has happened, but everyone claims not to have seen when it did! Have you?

And just in case anyone needs more material, heres our current ToDo buffer.

Greenie. An Ubuntu-based distribution that seems to be pretty popular in Slovakia and the Czech Republic, and thus probably a good addition to the GLDT. Quick googling leads us to the official page and to DistroWatch. The latter hints at a game oriented Xubuntu fork in early 2008, rebasing to Ubuntu in mid-2008. The official page doesnt seem to sport any change logs or release announcements (while my Slovak is very poor, this isnt much of a problem thanks to Google Translate). The oldest downloads (mirror) seem to have been purged. The forums also only hold comparatively recent posts. Googling a bit further reveals that Greenie was known in 2007. Time to power up the Wayback Machine: voil. Since my Slovak hasnt improved much in the meantime, lets feed again the earliest archive link to the translator The beginning of the project […] 14th September 2007 and Greenie Linux 1.0 is based directly on Ubuntu 7.04 Feisty Fawn. (on a second look, that page was available in English anyway!) Job done.

While checking out the page DW links to Greenie, Newtoos catches the eye. The Slovakian Wikipedia says something about it forking off of Ubuntu in Nov 2008. Researching further, we see that the download ISOs share a common folder. Extracting the URL from the link address, we quickly reveal Newtoos release date: 2008.11.13.

If only project sites had a nicely visible change log / history section Two distributions for the GLDT 11.7 are done, eight still to go!

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GNU/Linux Distribution Timeline

Manor House Golf Hotel | Country House in Wiltshire, Cotswolds

Breathtakingly situated in Wiltshire andon the outskirts of Bath lies Castle Combe village. Untouched since the 17th century, this chocolate box Cotswold village is home to the definitive country retreat, The Manor House…

View The Manor House Leisure Brochure

Call for more information on 01249 782206

Or email enquiries@manorhouse.co.uk

We are delighted to have been nominated for the World Golf Awards ‘England’s Best Golf Hotel 2015’award. Please do vote for us!


Find out about upcoming events at The Manor House including the Family and Food Festival, Theatre on the Lawns, wine dinners, garden tours, ladies’ lunches and charitable events… there’s muchmore to The Manor Housethan meets the eye!

Tell me more about the Manor House Event Diary

Perfectly situated for those wanting to visit the Cotswolds, Bath and Wiltshire, the five star Manor House boasts 48 individually designed bedrooms each with their own unique feature includingfour poster beds, separate seating areas, open fire places androll top, whirlpool and infinity baths.

Tell me more about luxury five star accommodation

Home to the Michelin star Bybrook restaurant and award-winning Executive Chef Richard Davies, The Manor House is the number one destination for a fine dining dinner, Sunday lunch with the family or a light lunch in the week.

Tell me more about Michelin Star Dining

Nestledalongside the Cotswold village ofCastle Combe village with a choice of twovenues and abreathtaking setting in the Cotswolds and close to Bath,there is no more idyllic or romantic a setting in which to celebrate your marriage.

Tell me more about weddings

Set in 365 acres of beautiful grounds, The Manor House is conveniently positioned for the M4/M5 placing it within easy reach ofBristol, Bath, Swindon and Cardiff and is under 90 minutes from Paddington Station in London.

Tell me more about conference and meetings

Call for more informationon 01249 782206

Or email enquiries@manorhouse.co.uk

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Manor House Golf Hotel | Country House in Wiltshire, Cotswolds

Paul Saffo: futurist

We are hanging eyes, ears and sensory organs on our computers and on our networks asking them to observe the physical world on our behalf and to manipulate it. The more you connect computers to the physical world the more the issue of interaction becomes important.

Corporate Design Foundation: May 1991

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Paul Saffo: futurist

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David Zach, Futurist – Keynote Speaker | Home

Reason #1 You want credentials.David earned a masters degree in Studies of the Future from the University of Houston. Its good for the audience to know that hes not just making stuff up. And, with over 1500 keynote talks so far, hes got a track record thats easy to find.

Reason #2 You want entertaining. David does not market himself as a humorist, but audience members always marvel at how they expected a dry and statistical talk from a futurist, and got one where they were laughing continually with the humor always making a point and always holding their attention, learning instead of worrying.

Reason #3 You want serious.One minute theyre laughing and in the next, you can hear a pin drop. Weaving fascinating ideas with profound implications, those who hear David find themselves deep in thought one moment and then engaged in some of the best conversations theyve had in years.

Reason #4 You want understanding, not platitudes. His talks are never canned. He has a variety of themes which he uses to weave in facts, issues and trends that are pointed inward towards the concerns of your audience.

Reason #5 You want engagement. David often attends the meetings he speaks at and makes an effort to connect the thinking between all those conferences. Hes there to teach and to learn and to engage in conversations both on and off the stage.

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Subscribe to our mailing list – World Future Society

We are currently working on an awesome new site.

Stay tuned!

Founded in 1966, the World Future Society is the world’s first organization for people who study, envision and create potential futures. Our mission is to improve decision-making about the future by empowering futurists, fostering networks and advancing knowledge and action on future-critical issues.

In order to support the urgent need for anticipatory decision making in a complex and rapidly changing world, WFS has embarked on a multi-year modernization and transformation. By 2017 we pledge to be the world’s premiere platform for empowering futurists, igniting dialogue about the future, and shaping futures.

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2 Billion Jobs To Disappear By 2030 – Futurist Thomas Frey

A picture of me speaking at yesterday’s TEDxReset in Istanbul.

Yesterday I was honored to be one of the featured speakers at the TEDxReset Conference in Istanbul, Turkey where I predicted that over 2 billion jobs will disappear by 2030. Since my 18-minute talk was about the rapidly shifting nature of colleges and higher education, I didnt have time to explain how and why so many jobs would be going away. Because of all of the questions I received afterwards, I will do that here.

If you havent been to a TEDx event, it is hard to confer the life-changing nature of something like this. Ali Ustundag and his team pulled off a wonderful event.

The day was filled with an energizing mix of musicians, inspiration, and big thinkers. During the breaks, audience members were eager to hear more and peppered the speakers with countless questions.They were also extremely eager to hear more about the future.

When I brought up the idea of 2 billion jobs disappearing (roughly 50% of all the jobs on the planet) it wasnt intended as a doom and gloom outlook. Rather, it was intended as a wakeup call, letting the world know how quickly things are about to change, and letting academia know that much of the battle ahead will be taking place at their doorstep.

Here is a brief overview of five industries – where the jobs will be going away and the jobs that will likely replace at least some of them – over the coming decades.

No one will miss the clutter and chaos of power lines.

1.) Power Industry

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2 Billion Jobs To Disappear By 2030 – Futurist Thomas Frey

Sexual Futurist.com IIlluminating the world through …

Rewilding the Tamed Sex Life

May 28, 2015

Ever had a dark, yet unspoken, sense of something really important missing from your personal sex life? You’re not alone: witness the enormous popularity of sex toys, pornography, erotica, sexy lingerie, and oh yes, “Fifty Shades of Grey.” It’s not that we don’t love our partners, but the lubes, new positions, and battery-powered toys (fun thought they might be!) are simply a distraction for a limited period of time from a level of boredom with a soupon of fear, maybe even terror. Is this really all there is? Is this all you wanted? Is this enough to keep the interest of the other? Instead of entering the mysterious forest of enchantment, our bedrooms and our sex lives often seem more like a low-rent theme park. George Monbiot’s “Feral,” a movingly written continuation of his thoughts on rewilding the so-called “tamed” (more accurately, “broken”) landscape around us focuses not just on the environment, but also the damage we have done in neglecting our own need for a wilder experience in our lives. In Chapter 4, “Elopement,” Monbiot brings up the disturbing truth that, when given a choice, colonialists and other pioneers of civilized, industrialized cultures seem to invariably choose the native…

May 26, 2015

The Nevada State Legislature is stampeding toward family values…of a sort. In a packed hearing to review “parental notification for abortion” legislation, Republican Ira Hansen (at left with one of his more enlightened quotes) said, The No. 1 positive thing that comes out of these laws in other states is there has been a substantial decrease in the number of abortions, Hansen said. Has there been a consequent rise in the amount of domestic-violence situations and things like that? There is absolutely no evidence to support that in all of the 38 states that have these laws on the books. So, rather than this legislation being pro-family or pro-child (as in the child who is pregnant), the legislation is a covert attempt to prevent abortions. That this is a good is based on the notion that life begins at conception. That this is a falsehood is demonstrated by the lack of legislation (or picketing demonstrators) preventing fertility clinics from fertilizing eggs, storing them, and eventually quietly taking them from the freezer to the trash. We’re talking hundreds of thousands of humans sitting in freezers, people! Oh, the inhumanity! SF exists to help the world learn to talk about human sexuality–in…

May 25, 2015

Outside of the politically correct, fans of Game of Thrones (GOT) may have missed a recent controversy. A very brief rape scene in a recent Game of Thrones (HBO) episode of season 5 has offended a lot of people. Many seem to be offended that the rape scene is NOT in the books upon which the series is based. Others seem to dislike that there was a depiction of rape at all. Still others were offended by…something they have a hard time talking about. Senator Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) tweeted. “Gratuitous rape scene disgusting and unacceptable.” Hmmm. Just what does that mean actually? “Gratuitous” is an odd word here; it means “uncalled for” or “unwarranted.” One wonders, just how many rapes are called for? How many forms of literary or cinematic art “warrant” a rape? And “disgusting?” One imagines an argument with someone responding, “No, I liked that rape. She was raped tastefully!” Who, besides (presumably) rapists, is not disgusted by rape? Ditto for “unacceptable.” But for those of us who watch the relentlessly cruel world depicted in GOT, there have been innumerable thousands killed with medieval weapons, torture scenes galore, beheadings of fathers in front of…

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The Futurist: Why the US Will Still be the Only Superpower in

One of the most popular dinner party conversation topics is the possibility that the United States will be joined or even surpassed as a superpower by another nation, such as China.Let usassess the what makes a superpower, and what it would take for China to match the US on each pillar of superpowerdom. Two years ago, in May 2006, I wrote the first version of this article, and it became the most heavily viewed article ever written on The Futurist. The comments section broughta wide spectrum of critiques of various points in the article, which led me to do further research, which in turn strengthened the case in some areas while weakening it others. Thus, it is time for a tune-up on the article.

A genuine superpower does not merely have military and political influence, but also must be at the top of the economic, scientific, and cultural pyramids. Thus, the Soviet Union was only a partial superpower, and the most recent genuine superpower before the United States was the British Empire. Many Europeans like to point out that the EU has a larger economy than the US, but the EU is a collection of 27 countries that does not share a common leader, a common military, a uniform foreign policy, or even a common currency. The EU simply is not a country, any more than the US + Canadacomprise a single country.

The only realistic candidate forjoining the US insuperpower status by 2030 is China. China has a population over 4 times the size of the US, has the fastest growing economy of any large country, and is mastering sophisticated technologies. But to match the US by 2030, China would have to :

1) Have an economy that matches the US economy in size. If the US grows by 3% a year for the next 22 years, it will be $30 trillion in 2008 dollars by then. Note that this is a modest assumption for the US, given the accelerating nature of economic growth, but also note that world GDP presently grows at a trend of 4.5% a year, and this might at most be 6% a year by 2030. China, with an economy of $3.2 trillion in nominal (not PPP) terms, would have to grow at 11% a year for the next 22 years straight to achieve the same size, which is already faster than its current 9-10% rate, if even that can be sustained for so long (no country, let alone a large one, has grown at more than 8% over such a long period). In other words, the progress that the US economy would make from 1945 to 2030 (85 years) would have to be achieved by China in just the 22 years from 2008 to 2030. Even then, this is just the total GDP, not per capita GDP, which would still be merely a fourth of America’s.

The subject of PPP GDP arises in such discussions, where China’s economy is measured to a larger number. However, this metric is inaccurate, as international trade is conducted in nominal, not PPP terms. PPP is useful for measuring per capita prosperity, where bag of rice in China costs less than in the US. But it tells us nothing of the size of the total economy, whichcould be more accuratelymeasured in commoditieslike oil or gold. Nonetheless, in per capita GDP, the US surpasses any other country that has more than 10 million people (andis thus too large to rely solely on being a tax haven or tourist destination for GDP generation). From the GDP per capita chart, we can see that many countries catch up to the US, but none really can equal, let alone surpass, the US. An EU study recently estimated that the EU is 22 years behind the US in economic development. The European Chamber of Commerce estimated that the gap between the EU and US was widening further, and that it would take 75 years for the EU to catch up to the US. Again, these are official EU studies, and are thus not ‘rigged by America’.

The weak dollar leads some who suddenly fancy themselves as currency experts to believe/hope that the US will lose economic dominance. However, we see from this chart that the US dollar comprises a dominant 65% of global currency reserves (an even greater share than it commanded in 1995), while the second highest share is that of the Euro (itself the combined currency of 21 separate countries) at just 25%. Furthermore, the Euro is not rising as a percentage of total reserves, despite the EU and Eurozone adding many new membernations after 2001. Which currency has any chance of overtaking the US, particularly a currency that is associated with a single sovereign nation? The Chinese Yuan represents under 2% of world reserves, and China itself stockpiles US dollars. Clearly, US dominance in this metric is enormous, and is not dwindling in the forseeable future.

2) Have a military capable of waging wars anywhere in the globe (even if it does not actually wage any). Part of the opposition that anti-Americans have to the US wars in Afghanistan and Iraq is the envy arising from the US being the only country with the means to invade multiple medium-sized countries in other continents and still sustain very few casualties.No other country currently is even near having the ability to project military power with such force and range, despite military spending being only 3% of US GDP – a lower proportion than many other countries. Mere nuclear weapons are no substitute for this. The inability of the rest of the world to do anything to halt genocide in Darfur or other atrocities in Burma or Zimbabweis evidence of how such problems can only get addressed if and when America addresses them.

3) Create original consumer brands that are household names everywhere in the world (including in America), such as Coca-Cola, Nike, McDonalds, Citigroup, Xerox, Microsoft, or Google. Europe and Japan have created a few brands in a few select industries, but China currently has almost none. Observing how many American brand logos have populated billboards and sporting events in developing nations over just the last 15 years, one might argue that US cultural and economic dominance has even increased by this measure.

4) Have major universities that are household names, that many of the worlds top students aspire to attend. 17 of the world’s top 20 universities are in the US. Until top students in Europe, India, and even the US are filling out an application for a Chinese university alongside those of Harvard, Stanford, MIT, or Cambridge, China is not going to match the US in the knowledge economy. This also represents the obstacles China has to overcome to successfully conduct impactful scientific research.

5)Become the center of gravity for all types of scientific research.TheUS conducted 32% of all research expenditures in 2007, which was twice as much as China, and more than the 27 combined countries of the EU. But it is not just in the laboratory where the US is dominant, but in the process to deliver innovations from the laboratory to the global marketplace.To displace the US, China would have to becomethe nation that produces the new inventions and corporations that are adopted by the mass market into their daily lives. From the telephone and airplane over a century ago, America has been the engine of almost all technological progress. Despite the fears of innovation going overseas, the big new technologies and influential applications continue to emerge from companies headquartered in the United States. Just in the lastfour years, Google emerged as the next super-lucrative company (before eBay and Yahoo slightly earlier), and the American-dominated ‘blogosphere’ emerged as a powerful force of information and media. Even after Google, a new batch of technology companies, this time in alternative energy, have rapidly accumulated tens of billions of dollars in market value. It is this dominance across the whole process of university excellence to scientific research to creating new companies to bring technologies to market that makes the US innovation engine virtually impossible for any country to surpass.

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The Futurist: Why the US Will Still be the Only Superpower in

Futurist Speaker Thomas Frey – DaVinci Institute


Author of the 2011 bookCommunicating with the Future,Futurist Speaker Thomas Frey is a powerful visionary who is revolutionizing ourthinking about thefuture.

The greatest value in understanding the future comes from spotting the major cultural, demographic, societal, and economic shifts early and translating them in to viable business strategies, says Tom.

Thomas continually pushes the envelope of understanding as part of the celebrity speaking circuit by creating fascinating images and understandings of the world to come. He has been fortunate enough to headline events along with some of todays most recognizable figures: Tom Peters, Nobel Peace Prize winner Mohammad Yunus;former CEO of General Electric, Jack Welch; former New York City Mayor Rudy Giulliani; Former President of Colombia, Andrs Pastrana; Prime Minister of Spain, Felipe Gonzlez Mrquez; Nobel Prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz; Saudi PrinceTurki Al-Faisal; and former World Bank President James Wolfensohn.

As the Executive Director and Senior Futurist at the DaVinci Institute, he works closely with the Institutes Senior Fellows and Board of Visionaries to develop original research studies, which enables him to speak on unusual topics, translating trends into unique opportunities.

Because of his work inspiring inventors and other revolutionary thinkers, the Boulder Daily Camera has referred to him as the Father of Invention while The Denver Post and Seattle Post Intelligencer have referred to him as the Dean of Futurists.

Thomas has been featured in hundreds of articles for both national and international publications including New York Times, Huffington Post, Times of India, USA Today,US News and World Report, The Futurist Magazine, Morning Calm (in-flight magazinefor Korean Airlines), Skylife (in-flight magazine for Turkish Airlines), ColoradoBiz Magazine, Rocky Mountain News, and many more. He currently writes a weekly Future Trend Report newsletter and a weekly column for FuturistSpeaker.com.

Each year his talks touch the lives of tens of thousands of people. Here are some of his most popular topics, but dont feel restricted by this list. Every year he designs dozens of custom presentation based specifically around the needs of a particular audience.

In 2018, the Norwegian Nobel Committee, charged with selecting the winner of the famous Nobel Peace Prize, has decided to change the process they use for determining the winner. Rather than selecting the winner themselves, theyve decided to host a global election to allow the people of the world to decide which one of the candidates has done the best job of promoting global peace.

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Futurist Speaker Thomas Frey – DaVinci Institute

Time to reverse our assumptions – Futurist Keynote Speaker Gerd Leonhard Learning Technologies 2015 – Video

Time to reverse our assumptions – Futurist Keynote Speaker Gerd Leonhard Learning Technologies 2015
Thanks for your interest! Gerd Leonhard Futurist, Author and Keynote Speaker Basel / Switzerland http://www.futuristgerd.com or http://www.gerdleonhard.de Please note: audio-only versions of…

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Time to reverse our assumptions – Futurist Keynote Speaker Gerd Leonhard Learning Technologies 2015 – Video

The 700-calorie breakfast you should eat if you want to live forever, according to a futurist who spends $1 million a …

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The 700-calorie breakfast you should eat if you want to live forever, according to a futurist who spends $1 million a …

Here's What Futurist Ray Kurzweil Is Ingesting in His Bid to Live Forever

Home Mail Search News Sports Finance Weather Games Answers Screen Flickr Mobile More Politics Celebrity Movies Music TV Groups Health Style Beauty Food Parenting Makers Tech Shopping Travel Autos Homes Try Yahoo Finance on Firefox Skip to Navigation Skip to Main content Skip to Right rail Sign In Mail Help Account Info Help Suggestions

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Here's What Futurist Ray Kurzweil Is Ingesting in His Bid to Live Forever

The Big AHA: Futurist to Discuss Healthcare and Technology with BCBS

Durham, NC (PRWEB) April 14, 2015

In his article, “Five Foreseeable Risks” futurist Jack Uldrich says, “The future may be unknowable. This does not, however, imply organizations cant prepare for it.”

Uldrich travels the world working with organizations and helping them prepare for the future. Having just addressed West Kendall Baptist Hospital in Florida last week, today Uldrich will address BCBS of North Carolina in Raleigh discussing his future-proofing philosophy of “The Big AHA.” AHA is Uldrich’s acronym for Awareness, Humility and Action and he firmly believes leaders and workers who embrace those tenants and practice them diligently will not simply be prepared for the future–they will prosper in the future.

AHA enables insurance organizations to weather such future altering factors. Those factors include economic instability, economic disruption, digital wildfires –the spread of misleading viral information accelerating beyond control, radical life-extension–the effect of millions of octogenarians living a decade or more longer, which Uldrich says, “will be profound,”and unilateral geo-engineering proposed by some scientists in order to help cool the planet.

Healthcare and technology, however, are just one area Uldrich excels in addressing. He also specializes in keynotes and strategic planning sessions for organizations in agriculture, education, energy, finance, retail and manufacturing. His major clients include United Healthcare, the American Medical Association, Allina, as well as Wells Fargo, IBM and Lockheed Martin.

Uldrich paints vivid pictures of what the world may look like in just a few short years. He provides an in-depth exploration of how the Internet of Things, Big Data, social media, robotics, biotechnology, nanotechnology, artificial intelligence, renewable energy and collaborative consumption will change everyday life for everyone in the very near future.

This week, following his address with BCBS of NC in Durham he will speak in Raleigh addressing the North Carolina Association of Electric Coops and then head to Green Bay to address Foth and Van Dyke.

Parties interested in learning more about him, his books, his daily blog or his speaking availability are encouraged to visit his website. Media wishing to know more about either the event or interviewing Jack as a futurist or trend expert can contact Amy Tomczyk at (651) 343.0660.

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The Big AHA: Futurist to Discuss Healthcare and Technology with BCBS

Virtual Reality Can Change The Hospital Experience – The Medical Futurist – Video

Virtual Reality Can Change The Hospital Experience – The Medical Futurist
How the Oculus Rift, Sony Morpheus or Google Cardboard could change the whole healthcare experience for physicians and patients with virtual reality. Examples, applications and ideas for the…

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Virtual Reality Can Change The Hospital Experience – The Medical Futurist – Video

Rackspace’s futurist visits Maker Media lab (Make Magazine in 360-degrees) – Video

Rackspace's futurist visits Maker Media lab (Make Magazine in 360-degrees)
I take my 360 camera to visit Make Magazine's visual lab, which is inside the Innovation Hangar. Here you see the editor's passions for drones, 3D printing, robots, and more. Learn more about…

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Rackspace’s futurist visits Maker Media lab (Make Magazine in 360-degrees) – Video