Amazon's Alexa AI. Robots have the potential to both enrich human society and polarise wealth distribution. Rick Wilking : Reuters
As robots and automated services increase in number globally, scholars have been quick to point to the potential threat such developments pose to a harmonious society.
Are these concerns reasonable and do Arabian Gulf economies' unique features generate distinct dynamics?
Before discussing the threats, one must first acknowledge that labour-saving and productivity-enhancing technological innovations are fundamentally beneficial. If you are concerned about discoveries that diminish the need for human handsthen recall that once upon a time, in the days of hunter-gatherer societies, including the Gulf Bedouin civilisation, unemployment was zero, because everyone spent all day eking out a living. Labour-saving technology is a key reason why you can consume so much today, starting with farming, which allows society to feed itself while only dedicating a small percentage of the population to the task. The labour hours saved by replacing hunting and gathering with farming have ended up being used to produce more advanced commodities, such as clothes, carsand mobile telephones.
Therefore, when a fast-food restaurant introduces automated order-delivery stations, your first impulse should be: Great! Society can now produce more in total, as the people previously taking customer orders can now perform other jobs. A good illustration is ATMs. Prior to their invention, most bank employees were cashiers, leading to big restrictions on the speed and availability of cash withdrawal services. Today, most bank employees are able to deliver advanced services at a low cost, such as investment advice or help with managing a small business, precisely because technology has freed them up to perform such tasks.
However, technological progress is not unambiguously desirableand it carries two risks.
The first is unfavourable changes in the distribution of wealth and income. While innovation increases the total size of the economic pie, it may also modify the sizes of the slices that people earnand, in particular, certain groups may lose even if society as a whole gains, or inequality might become very acute. For example, when Japan developed cultured pearls in the early 20th century, the world instantly became able to produce more pearlsbut pearl divers in Bahrain lost their livelihoods. The younger ones may have been mentally nimble enough to pursue alternative professionsbut the older ones were essentially doomed to a lower standard of living.
Why not just compensate those losing out, possibly by taxing those benefiting from the improvement? Many people think that is the best way to deal with technological progress, including the rise of robots, but practical implementation can be challenging. In particular, correctly identifying winners and losers in a dynamic economy is nearly impossibleand so any rule will inevitably encourage fictitious claims of being a loser rather than a beneficiary, in an attempt to secure handouts and avoid taxes. This is why some favour restrictions on a the roll out of a technology, most famously the Luddites of the British Industrial Revolution, who destroyed the textile weaving machines that threatened their livelihoods.
The second risk associated with technological progress is that it might change our culture and norms in an undesirable way, independently of concerns relating to inequity. For example, many Gulf citizens today complain that smartphones have stunted peoples ability to engage in sustained, meaningful conversations, be they at the dinner table or in the majlises that constitute the backbone of social relations. In the case of robots, there is a fear that society's more modestly skilled workers will suffer a crisis of self-esteem if technology leaves them unable to hold down a regular job, even if they are compensated financially. Most would agree it would be unhealthy to have 20 per centof a labour force catatonically staringat the TV out of sheer boredom.
In the case of the GCC, I recently asked my University of Bahrain students (MA public policy) to predict any GCC-specific threats or opportunities relating to robots and automation. A popular response reflected the uneasy relationship that Gulf nationals sometimes have with migrant workers. While the economic benefits accruing to citizens and migrants from the abundance of foreign workers are evident to most observers, Gulf citizens tend to fixate on the fact that they have become minorities in their own countriesand feel that their cultural norms are threatened. For example, in The Dubai Mall, the operator ofthe establishment has arranged for signs reminding patrons to refrain from wearing revealing clothing or physical displays of affectionbecause nationals are too small in number to set an effective example.
Since migrant workers in the Gulf are concentrated in low-skilled jobs, some Gulf citizens welcome the opportunity to displace these workers with robots, perceiving it as an opportunity to reaffirm traditional Islamic and Gulf values.
Whatever ones inclination, it is worth bearing in mind two maxims regarding technological progress. First, as the Luddite example indicates, people have been fearing innovation for centuries. Yet, the world is a better placeand so we should ease our concerns. Second, since the middle of the 18th century, nobody has had much success stopping progress.
We welcome economics questions from our readers through email on omar@omar.ecor on twitter via@omareconomics
Link:
The risks and rewards of automation - The National
- The Automation Conference - December 9th, 2016 [December 9th, 2016]
- The Best Home Automation Systems of 2016 | Top Ten Reviews - December 24th, 2016 [December 24th, 2016]
- Compact Automation - Actuators, Hydraulic Cylinders, Linear ... - December 24th, 2016 [December 24th, 2016]
- What is Home Automation? | Home Automation Systems - December 24th, 2016 [December 24th, 2016]
- Job Seekers - Automation Personnel Services - December 24th, 2016 [December 24th, 2016]
- iAutomation - December 25th, 2016 [December 25th, 2016]
- Beyond Automation - hbr.org - December 25th, 2016 [December 25th, 2016]
- Automation The Car Company Tycoon Game on Steam - December 25th, 2016 [December 25th, 2016]
- Automation - Wikipedia - December 25th, 2016 [December 25th, 2016]
- Build automation - Wikipedia - December 26th, 2016 [December 26th, 2016]
- Home - Enerwave Home Automation - December 27th, 2016 [December 27th, 2016]
- Automation | Technologies | Systems | Integrator ... - December 27th, 2016 [December 27th, 2016]
- Automation - DESHAZO - December 27th, 2016 [December 27th, 2016]
- Custom Automation & Machine Design | Automation GT - December 27th, 2016 [December 27th, 2016]
- IT Automation - BMC - December 27th, 2016 [December 27th, 2016]
- Werner Electric | Automation - January 28th, 2017 [January 28th, 2017]
- Automationtechies | Automation Engineering Recruiting - January 28th, 2017 [January 28th, 2017]
- Automation - Mazak Corporation - January 28th, 2017 [January 28th, 2017]
- Automation | Food Engineering - January 28th, 2017 [January 28th, 2017]
- Test Automation Services for Development of Regression ... - January 28th, 2017 [January 28th, 2017]
- UI Automation Overview - msdn.microsoft.com - February 5th, 2017 [February 5th, 2017]
- The Evolution of Automation and What It Means for the Integration Industry - Commercial Integrator - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Automation, robots could replace 250000 public sector workers in the next 15 years - Computer Business Review - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- New telecom transformation goals require service automation - TechTarget - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Automation expected to displace insurance underwriters, real estate brokers - CIO Dive - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- The Perks Of Automation And The Risks: Why To Think Twice About Getting Into That Driverless Uber - Forbes - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Voices Reinventing enterprise finance by overhauling AP automation - Accounting Today - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- DFLabs Launches the First Security Automation and Orchestration Platform based Upon Supervised Active Intelligence - Business Wire (press release) - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- VIDEO: Going Big on Automation in a Small Footprint Facility - ENGINEERING.com - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Building a better model of human-automation interaction - Phys.org - Phys.Org - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Cruise Automation Is Testing an App For Hailing Self-Driving Cars - Fortune - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- AlixPartners examines automation in manufacturing and logistics management - Logistics Management - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Women need to look out for each other in automated workplaces - The Guardian - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Automation vs. the H-1B visa program: Which matters to employees? - TechTarget - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Automation is the unavoidable future of the economy - The Daily Cougar - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Speeders beware: Legislation would allow automation crackdown ... - SFGate - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Robots versus bureaucrats: Why public sector work is ripe for automation - Financial Post - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Rockwell Automation Surged 10% in January as Growth Picked Up Steam - Motley Fool - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Global Medical Automation Market to Reach Approximately $75.6 Billion by 2025 - By End User, Application ... - PR Newswire (press release) - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Automation 'key' to advancing Thai production - The Nation - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- WorkWave Releases New Lead Management And Marketing ... - PR Newswire (press release) - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- 'We employ insane levels of automation' Kris Canekeratne - Times of India - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Most people are optimistic about workplace automation, social data suggests - ZDNet - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Yes, there's a job creation argument for automation and technology ... - The Hill (blog) - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Technobabble: Automation and the modern worker - CIO Dive - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Improving Behavior Through Automation of Vehicle Systems - School Transportation News (blog) - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Automation Nightmare: Philosopher Warns We Are Creating a World Without Consciousness - Big Think - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Why Don't We See More Automation in Federal Networks? - Nextgov - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Automation can revitalize the US workforce - Fox News - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Readers Write (Feb. 12): The moose population; jobs, start-ups and automation; diversity in the funny pages - Minneapolis Star Tribune - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- Automation can replace bureaucrats and save taxpayers money - Hot Air - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- TigerStop hopes to ride automation to new heights - The Columbian - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- Your Most Valuable Resource is Time Get More of it through Automation - CMS Critic (press release) (blog) - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- What Does Device Automation Mean for Users? - Medical Device and Diagnostics Industry (blog) - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- How To Beat Automation And Not Lose Your Job - Forbes - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Logistics firm gets automation boost - The Straits Times - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- PP Control & Automation launch new video to kick-start exciting plans for 2017 - Manufacturer.com - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- Automation's Impace on Data Center Monitoring Alerts - The Data Center Journal - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- Hollysys Automation Technologies Reports Unaudited Financial Results for the First Half Year and the Second Quarter ... - PR Newswire (press release) - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- 4 Automation Hacks to Save You Money and Manpower - Yahoo Finance - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Istuary Innovation Group and Bluewrist Partner to Bring Robotics and Automation into China's Manufacturing Sector - Yahoo Finance - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Redwood Software Named a Strong Performer in Independent Robotic Process Automation (RPA) Report - Yahoo Finance - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Boeing ramps up automation, innovation as it readies 737MAX | The ... - The Seattle Times - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Robots and AI are coming for our jobs, but can augmentation save us from automation? - Digital Trends - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- The Impact of Bad Data in Automation: Why Quality Management is Critical - R & D Magazine - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Automation: Are We Empowering Human Interaction Or Displacing It? - Business 2 Community - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Life in the Fast LaneAutomation with Software-Defined Intelligence - InfoWorld - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Luddite Lefty Journalists Apparently Think Workplace Automation is Conservatives' Fault [VIDEO] - Daily Caller - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Will automation define the future of network technology? - TechTarget - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Editorial: Improving automation - The Motorship - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- TigerText Unveils Role-based Scheduling Automation, Amazon Alexa integration - HIT Consultant - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- 89% people want automation at workplace: Adobe - Economic Times - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Delta veers to EV parts, automation - Bangkok Post - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Robotic process automation makes nearshore outsourcing more ... - CIO - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- The working-class job that Trump could save from automation - Washington Post - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- China must be ready for automation - Basic Income News - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Bill Gates Says Robots Should Be Taxed Like Workers - Fortune - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Trump and automation challenge India's IT industry - VentureBeat - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- Both Trump and Automation Are Challenging India's IT Industry - Fortune - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- 89% people want automation at workplace: Adobe - ETCIO.com - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]