The Liberals promised help for oil workers as their jobs disappear. So where is it? – Toronto Star

OTTAWAIt was a notable pledge in the Liberal partys 2019 election platform, a signal that climate change must be confronted, the era of oil is ending, and that the federal government would take seriously what that meant for Canadas fossil-fuel workers.

But 15 months later, as the Western-based sector faces the new U.S. presidents expected decision to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline, there is no sign the Liberals promised Just Transition Act is coming any time soon.

And thats a problem for tens of thousands of workers in Alberta and Saskatchewan who could be adrift as the world shifts from emissions-heavy oil to cleaner energy, says Jim Stanford, an economist who is director of the Centre for Future Work.

I know the government has been talking about a Just Transition Act and they should bring it in immediately and they should give it money in this next budget, Stanford told the Star by phone last week.

Government has to indicate clearly that this is a change thats going to happen over the next couple of decades, and were going to be there to support people all the way, he said. If they do that, then this can be done without personal or community sacrifice.

Seamus ORegan, the federal natural resources minister, was not available for an interview in recent days, according to his office. Asked why the bill hasnt been tabled and when it will be introduced, ORegans press secretary Ian Cameron would only say by email that the minister is committed to fully implementing the mandate he received from the prime minister.

ORegans mandate letter from December 2019 called on him to help advance legislation to support the future and livelihood of workers and their communities in the transition to a low-carbon global economy.

Asked again Monday about the transition bill in relation to the impending U.S. decision over Keystone XL, ORegans office provided a statement from the minister that said Ottawa is still making the case for the pipeline with the American government. It did not mention the promised transition legislation.

Canadian oil is produced under strong environmental and climate policy frameworks, and this project will not only strengthen the vital Canada-U.S. energy relationship, but create thousands of good jobs for workers on both sides of the border, ORegan said

Since returning to power with a minority government in October 2019, there has been scant reference to the legislation on Parliament Hill. The phrase Just Transition Act has been uttered just five times during debates and committee, according to the site Open Parliament. The governments revamped, $15-billion climate plan unveiled in December also did not mention the bill, though it did say the government would at every turn, focus on workers and their careers in a fair and just transition to a stronger and cleaner economy.

Kathryn Harrison, a political science professor at the University of British Columbia, said that promise is politically challenging on two levels. The first involves political opponents like the federal Conservatives and premiers of Alberta and Saskatchewan, all ardent supporters of Canadas oil industry and critics of Ottawas climate policies, which they argue are unduly harmful to the sector. Talking about just transition acknowledges that there will be a decline in Canadas oil industry, and that is very politically contentious, she said.

The second challenge relates to a contradiction within the Liberal governments own policies, she said. The government champions the Paris Agreement and vows Canada will achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, but it spending billions of dollars in public money to twin the Trans Mountain pipeline, for instance.

Meanwhile, the industry itself sees no need for a transition. Tim McMillan, president of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, spoke to the Star last week about the first positive forecast for his industry since annual spending in the sector started plummeting from $80 billion in 2014. This year, the association predicts investment in Canadas oil and gas sector will be around $27 billion more than $3 billion higher than what it was in 2020.

McMillan said its a welcome prognosis after a rough ride through the pandemic, which struck last March just as a dispute between Russia and Saudi Arabia sent the price for oil on the world market to the bottom of the barrel. He also pointed to the International Energy Agency, which predicts growing global demand for oil could peak within a decade but stay flat through the 2030s.

We think Canada can and should play a leadership role in that supply and that Canada should be setting its sight on a fairly strong growth target for investment into the energy sector, McMillan said.

Stanford, the economist from the Centre for Future Work, sees a different trend. In a report published Monday with the organization Environmental Defence, Stanford charts how Canadas fossil fuel industries lost 50,000 jobs since 2014 and still employed about 170,000 workers in 2019. He predicts that, as renewable energy gains steam and countries around the world try to reduce emissions, Canadas oil sector could virtually disappear in another 20 years.

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Thats why he argues the country needs to support workers in the industry. He calls on Ottawa to spend $1 billion per year, starting in 2021, and said the transition could be designed so that the vast majority of current employees can work out their careers and retire without being replaced, while younger ones can receive sizable government support around $250,000 each to relocate and train to work in new industries.

But the key is co-ordination, which is why a framework in the form of national legislation would help, he said. The hard reality is theyre going to face that uprooting, said Stanford. Its the delaying and denying that makes this challenge so much worse than it needs to be.

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The Liberals promised help for oil workers as their jobs disappear. So where is it? - Toronto Star