The annual Halifax International Security Forum runs from Friday to Sunday of this week. To mark the occasion, the National Post is presenting a series of essays written by conference participants. Today, Janice Gross Stein discusses the disruptive forces that are changing the face of international order.
Democratic allies of the United States are feeling lonely. They are shaking their heads in disbelief at the arbitrary way President Donald Trump abandoned the Kurds and, in a phone call, all but gave President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey a green light to cross the border into Syria, and pummel Americas former ally with artillery fire. The howls of outrage from former senior U.S. military officers, and senators do not decrease the worry about a United States that is turning inward, and seems to care little for its long-standing friends.
It is not only the substance of U.S. policy that has raised anxieties in the democratic alliance to new heights. There is a legitimate debate to be had about the wisdom of stationing forces in the Middle East, and many allies would agree that a considered rethink is appropriate. There is also widespread agreement in the democratic world on tougher policies toward China, although far less support for tariffs as the principal instrument.
It is not only the substance of U.S. policy that has raised anxieties
What is so alarming is the openly transactional perspective of the leader of the democratic alliance. This president prefers autocrats to bothersome democrats. After all, autocrats have far more political space to make deals than do democrats, and they are far less constrained by the rules.
Relationships are far more important to allies than deals. Allies count on relationships that are built over time, and create trust. These relationships are shock absorbers that insulate alliances even when there is serious policy disagreement. Germany and Canada disagreed with president George Bushs decision to use military force in Iraq in 2003, but no one questioned the value of the alliance, and everyone was careful to protect the relationships.
Alliances are not consistent with transactional politics where the deal is more important than the partner. What are lonely friends to do?
Some allies believe that this presidency will pass, in a year or in five, and then all will return to normal. The strategy is therefore to shore up the liberal international order that was especially important to the smaller democracies. Play for time. Hang on by your fingernails. Stay beneath the radar.
That strategy ignores the disruptive forces that are undermining the liberal international order that go far beyond this president. Indeed, Trump is the consequence not the cause of these forces. The inequality created by the past wave of hyper-globalization, the decline of international trade as a proportion of the global economy, the thickening of state borders and digital boundaries, the rise of authoritarian capitalism, and illiberal democracies in the wake of a wave of populism that has swept the democratic world, and the early stages of the fourth industrial revolution all combine to amplify the forces of disruption.
It is the convergence of disruptive forces that sounds the alarm.
The heyday of the liberal international order is over. As good as it was, and as much as we in the democratic world grieve its passing, its best days are behind us. The liberal order is now challenged by Russia, by China, by strong regional leaders in Brazil and Turkey, by domestic political forces within Europe, and, of course, by the president of the United States and those voters who support him.
It is the convergence of disruptive forces that sounds the alarm
What indeed are small democratic allies to do?
Canada exemplifies the painful policy dilemmas of a lonely ally. It will have little choice in the world that is coming but to be far more strategic in the partnerships that it makes. And these partnerships will be far more issues-driven than they have been in the past.
Canada will always pay extraordinary attention to what the United States wants. We, along with Mexico, share a continent with the United States and depend on it for our prosperity and our security. More and more, however, Canada will look at the terms of the deal issue by issue, with much less confidence that goodwill built on one issue will spill over to another.
Canada will also look for other partners, on a case-by-case basis. We would be foolish to ignore China, where rapid growth will continue for at least another two decades, but we will likely approach negotiations with a skeptical eye, and a strong focus on the term sheet. Canada will have much the same approach to Russia, and many others.
This focus on strategic partnering alone or in shifting groups of states international institutions, and civil society actors that are like-minded on specific issues, will become the proxy for the more deeply embedded alliances that made the world so predictable for the past 70 years.
The irony is obvious. A strategy of selective partnering, with close attention to the specifics of the deal, is a transactional approach. It is a poor substitute for alliances that built deep relationships over time. But in a world where the leader of the democratic alliance is wholly transactional, and where the broader trends make the happier days of past alliances much less likely to reassert themselves, lonely allies have little choice.
Janice Gross Stein is Belzberg Professor of Conflict Management and Founding Director of the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at the University of Toronto.
Read the rest here:
- Fox News Anchor Comes Unglued, Berates 'Dumb' Liberal Colleague - The Daily Beast - April 27th, 2024 [April 27th, 2024]
- Mathew Chandy '24, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences - UConn Today - University of Connecticut - April 27th, 2024 [April 27th, 2024]
- Will No One Rid Me Of These Meddlesome -Isms: Thinking and Rethinking Liberalism - Front Porch Republic - April 27th, 2024 [April 27th, 2024]
- Why market demand doesn't capture the value of the liberal arts | Letters - Tampa Bay Times - April 27th, 2024 [April 27th, 2024]
- See what the students were wearing for the School of Liberal Studies at Savannah High prom - Savannah Morning News - April 27th, 2024 [April 27th, 2024]
- Is a $330000 liberal arts education still 'worth it?' - Los Angeles Loyolan - April 27th, 2024 [April 27th, 2024]
- Judge installed by liberal Democrats over centrist Hochul pick responsible for Harvey Weinstein ruling - New York Post - April 27th, 2024 [April 27th, 2024]
- Liberal Cities, Conservative Towns Seek Supreme Court's Help on Homelessness - The Wall Street Journal - April 27th, 2024 [April 27th, 2024]
- Luke Grimes on Yellowstones liberal critics: A lot of people see a cowboy hat and think, thats not for me - The Independent - April 27th, 2024 [April 27th, 2024]
- Liberal pundits really do have weekly meetings to 'shape' message on Trump - Washington Times - April 27th, 2024 [April 27th, 2024]
- Trump slams 'Bidenomics' ahead of court, claims to have a 'good chance' of winning liberal state - Fox News - April 27th, 2024 [April 27th, 2024]
- Ones a Conservative, Ones a Liberal. Heres Their Secret to Friendship. - InsideHook - April 27th, 2024 [April 27th, 2024]
- Bill Cotterell: What? NPR is liberal? Say it ain't so - Tallahassee Democrat - April 27th, 2024 [April 27th, 2024]
- Orban: Hungary is island in the European progressive liberal ocean - bne IntelliNews - April 27th, 2024 [April 27th, 2024]
- NY Times keeps spotlight on NPR crisis on heels of Uri Berliner blowing whistle on liberal bias - Fox News - April 27th, 2024 [April 27th, 2024]
- CPAC Hungary: ex Polish PM Morawiecki warns of "destructive ideas of liberal elites" - Notes From Poland - April 27th, 2024 [April 27th, 2024]
- The biggest threat to freedom in the West is liberalism itself - The New Statesman - April 27th, 2024 [April 27th, 2024]
- Letter: NPR Editor Berliner reveals liberal bias of network - Arizona Daily Star - April 27th, 2024 [April 27th, 2024]
- Chicago native says residents livid over liberal mayor's new migrant funding, ready to vote for Trump - Fox News - April 27th, 2024 [April 27th, 2024]
- Ontario Liberal leader says Dresden landfill project could be nixed with 'stroke of a pen' - The Chatham Daily News - April 27th, 2024 [April 27th, 2024]
- Opinion: The Liberals' immigration policies have accomplished the opposite of what was intended - The Globe and Mail - April 27th, 2024 [April 27th, 2024]
- At Issue | Was the Liberal budget a bust with Canadians? - CBC.ca - April 27th, 2024 [April 27th, 2024]
- Have the Liberal Arts Gone Conservative? - The New Yorker - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- Letters to the Editor: 'I see myself in Katie Britt' what liberal critics missed in the senator's response - Los Angeles Times - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- Even when it criticizes Israel, the liberal world is not against us - opinion - The Jerusalem Post - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- Former Trump Aide Alyssa Farah Griffin Becomes a Liberal Favorite - The New York Times - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- Renowned author, liberal arts proponent to deliver annual Lester Lectures - Mercer University - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- NYU to Host Zaheer Ali at the Annual Liberal Studies Student Research ColloquiumApril 5 - NYU - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- Power to the Neighborhoods!: New York City Growth Politics, Neighborhood Liberalism, and the Origins of the ... - Joint Center for Housing Studies - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- Canada's Conservatives back NDP-Liberal anti-scab legislation that undermines the right to strike - WSWS - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- The Surprising Left-Right Alliance That Wants More Apartments in Suburbs - The New York Times - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- PARKER: Clarence Thomas, liberal racism and the ongoing denigration of Black conservatives - Kankakee Daily Journal - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- Liberal Media Scream: Hollywoods freaks over Trump - Washington Examiner - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- Why liberals failed in the fight against antisemitism - JNS.org - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- Liberal Renew manifesto sneak peek and bits from Bucharest congress - EURACTIV - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- Katie Britt calls on liberal media 'to pay attention' to border - 1819 News - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- Liberal truck wash cited $171k for OSHA violations - KSN-TV - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- Over 30,000 Killed in Gaza, but Even Israel's 'Liberal Left' Says: That's War - Opinion - Haaretz - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- Liberal Man Injured in Beaver County Accident - KSCB News.net - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- What is the Market's View on China Liberal Education Holdings Ltd (CLEU) Stock's Price and Volume Trends Monday? - InvestorsObserver - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- German liberals send defence expert into tripartite EU election leadership team - EURACTIV - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- Ramaswamy warns liberal justices 'buying political latitude' with 9-0 ruling as more Trump cases lie ahead - Fox News - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- How much of this is propelled by white liberal guilt from executives?: Gutfeld - Fox News - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- Liberals and the Libel of Christian Nationalism - The Imaginative Conservative - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- Liberal Arts & Science Academy - Austin extends home winning streak to seven - MaxPreps - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- Liberal Racism and the Denigration of Black Conservatives - Daily Signal - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- Watchdog group exposes radical, liberal ideology of school-based health centers - The Lion - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- What happens when a liberal learns her family owned slaves? - Leader & Times - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Is it Liberal Arts, Without the Arts? - Xavier Newswire - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Quebec Liberal Party would be more popular with Denis Coderre at the helm: poll - Montreal Gazette - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Maine's Liberal Members of Congress Stand by Biden After Disastrous, Confused Press Conference - The Maine Wire - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Liberal Media Scream: Kristen Welker likes to lecture Republicans, too - Washington Examiner - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Australia's only Liberal government lives on - for now - Yahoo News Australia - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Liberal institutions are the threat to liberal institutions Claudine Gay is warning about - Washington Examiner - January 10th, 2024 [January 10th, 2024]
- Elon Musk, the "free speech absolutist" kicks liberal journalists off Twitter - Daily Kos - January 10th, 2024 [January 10th, 2024]
- Liberal Arts and studies in humanities under attack on college campuses - The Community Word - January 10th, 2024 [January 10th, 2024]
- Liberal candidate for federal byelection planned to run for Conservatives last year - National Post - January 10th, 2024 [January 10th, 2024]
- Bill Barton: 'The Liberal by the Bay' - Redheaded Blackbelt - December 7th, 2023 [December 7th, 2023]
- OPINION | Female-dominated liberal arts imperative in male-dominated tech world - Tulane Hullabaloo - December 7th, 2023 [December 7th, 2023]
- Dean of the College of Liberal and Fine Arts job with Tarleton State University | 37572379 - The Chronicle of Higher Education - December 7th, 2023 [December 7th, 2023]
- Laughing Stock: 'A liberal agenda' may not be what you think - Tucson Weekly - December 7th, 2023 [December 7th, 2023]
- Justin Trudeau plays the Trump card - POLITICO - POLITICO - December 7th, 2023 [December 7th, 2023]
- Norman Lear, Producer Of TV's 'All In The Family' And Influential Liberal Advocate, Dies At 101 - Newstalk 750 - 103.7 ... - KFQD - December 7th, 2023 [December 7th, 2023]
- Kremlin Taps Liberal Businessman to Oppose Putin in 2024 Election Report - The Moscow Times - December 7th, 2023 [December 7th, 2023]
- Norman Lear, producer of TV's 'All in the Family' and influential liberal advocate, has died at 101 - WV News - December 7th, 2023 [December 7th, 2023]
- MoveOn Carries Out Layoffs as Liberal Groups Struggle to Raise Money - The New York Times - December 7th, 2023 [December 7th, 2023]
- Norman Lear, producer of TV's 'All in the Family' and influential liberal advocate, has died at 101 - El Paso Inc. - December 7th, 2023 [December 7th, 2023]
- UW System President suggests universities with high numbers of low income students should shift away from liberal arts - Wisconsin Examiner - December 7th, 2023 [December 7th, 2023]
- Norman Lear, producer of TV's 'All in the Family' and influential liberal advocate, has died at 101 - The Caledonian-Record - December 7th, 2023 [December 7th, 2023]
- Israels representative in New York resigned to protest Netanyahu. Now hes got some tough words for liberal New York Jews. - Forward - December 7th, 2023 [December 7th, 2023]
- Neal Milner: Watch That Swinging Door, Liberals, Lest It Hit You On The Way Out - Honolulu Civil Beat - December 7th, 2023 [December 7th, 2023]
- The Liberal Answer to Cancel Culture - Manhattan Institute - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Study: Liberal US priests facing 'progressive' extinction - The Pillar - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Liberal Jewish U.S. Groups Are Walking an Oh-So-Thin Tightrope - The New Republic - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Why a liberal arts degree is often a ticket to career success - USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Open Forum: In their time, founding fathers were liberal - The Winchester Star - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Liberals announce National Campaign Committee Co-Chairs - Liberal Party of Canada - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- UT College of Liberal Arts hosts panel about Senate Bill 17 - The Daily Texan - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Liberal Arts student uses platform to educate others on the ... - Pennsylvania State University - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Stanford celebrates 50 years of Structured Liberal Education ... - Stanford University News - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]