French President Emmanuel Macron's popularity among young people has suffered as many see him as a "president of the rich" and are angered over controversial reforms and increased living costs in recent years.
Emmanuel Dunand | Afp | Getty Images
While Emmanuel Macron might have breathed a sigh of relief that voting wasn't closer on Sunday night, digging deeper into the election data shows a worrying trend for the French president.
The outcome of the first round of France's presidential election Sunday was a stark awakening for the incumbent leader. Visibly shaken, the center-right former investment banker addressed supporters after coming out ahead of far-right opponent Marine Le Pen by five percentage points.
"Make no mistake, nothing is decided," Macron told the crowd at a rally Sunday night. "Let's be humble, determined I want to extend my hand to all those who want to work for France."
The result, which saw Macron take 28.3% and Le Pen take 23.3% of the vote and set a runoff election between the two on April 24, means much is at stake not just for France but Europe as a whole, for which the candidates have dramatically different visions.
This photograph taken in Toulouse, southwestern France on April 10, 2022 shows screens displaying TV shows showing the projected results after the close of polling stations in the first round of the French presidential election.
Lionel Bonaventure | Afp | Getty Images
In third place was far-left socialist candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon with 21% of the vote, followed by far-right newcomer Eric Zemmour with 7.2%, whose anti-immigrant comments have made Le Pen look moderate. Le Pen and Macron must now attempt to win over as many of those voters as they can before the final vote in two weeks' time.
Facing a war on Europe's eastern flank the scale of which has not been seen on the continent since World War II, and the highest inflation levels in decades, the stakes for France could hardly be higher.
And in a striking contrast from political trends in other parts of the Western world, older French voters, particularly those above 70, are more liberal while younger voters are increasingly attracted to the far left and right.
According to polling data from Ipsos, Macron only came out on top among voters over the age of 60 and Melenchon and Le Pen received a larger share of the vote from the 18-24 age group. While younger people in France tend to vote less, which may in this case bode well for Macron, he will still have to appeal to a more left-leaning audience in order to capture many of those votes for the runoff.
Data from polling group Harris Interactive showed the hard-left Melenchon won the biggest chunk of voters aged 18-24 with 34.8% of their votes, with Macron and Le Pen following with 24.3% and 18% of that vote, respectively. Le Pen took the largest proportion of voters aged 25-49 at 30%.
She also came ahead among 35-49 year olds with 28.8% of that vote. Macron only beat his rivals among the elderly, winning 37.5% of voters over the age of 65 and 28% among 50-64 year olds.
More so than reflecting a shift in social values, some analysts say that much of the younger electorate's lurch to the far right and far left reveals the appeal of economic populism espoused by Le Pen and Melenchon, and a rejection of the globalism of the status quo.
With Macron facing a nationwide cost of living crisis and a widespread belief in the country that he's a "president of the rich," his pitch to younger voters and those further out on the political spectrum is looking far more challenging than he may have previously expected.
The surge in popularity of candidates at the extreme ends of the spectrum "is a manifestation of anger towards the lost years of their life due to the Covid pandemic and government lockdowns; part of it is an anti-establishment positioning against the French government," Brussels-based international political affairs expert Julien Hoez told CNBC.
"On top of this, there's the generational, economic, employment and cultural stressors across French society which have been picked up and weaponized by parties such as the RN and LFI," Hoez said, referencing Le Pen's National Rally and Melenchon's La France Insoumise.
Le Pen, who has softened her image and that of her party, National Rally, in recent years, has shifted from a focus on immigration and national identity to bread-and-butter issues like the cost of living. And with inflation in the euro area at its highest ever, her message is resonating.
According to a poll by Ipsos published on April 10, purchasing power and the cost of living is the single most important issue for 58% of voters and a clear majority within every age group except for those 18 to 24, for whom the environment ranks first.
Le Pen has appealed to voters with proposals of tax cuts on energy, prices of which are at historic highs thanks to inflation and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Macron meanwhile has pledged some tax cuts but is also pushing for an increase in the retirement age and cut to public sector employment something that won't find much support among the left-wing voters whose support he now needs.
Macron wants to raise the retirement age from 62 to 65 and is the only candidate aiming to abolish the special pensions system in place for some state company employees, which includes major benefits and a lower retirement age. Zemmour wants to raise the retirement age to 64, and Le Pen plans to leave it unchanged, but bring it down to 60 for those who started working at the age of 20 or younger. Melenchon wanted to lower it to 60.
Zemmour, in a speech following Sunday's elections, urged his supporters to give their vote to Le Pen, while Melenchon beseeched his supporters to vote for anyone but her. Still, he did not go so far as to endorse Macron, something the sitting president would have appreciated.
Macron has been pushing for European unity at a crucial time when the EU faces an aggressive Russia. His focus on the war in Ukraine initially gave him a large advantage in polls, but just in the final fortnight before the first vote, the focus has shifted domestically to the cost of living crisis.
Le Pen has been able to exploit this, pushing her economic promises to the forefront as her anti-NATO and anti-EU stance and friendly relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin have come under scrutiny.
But make no mistake, a shift in topic focus doesn't mean a move away from the issues that made Le Pen a controversial firebrand in the first place, said Mujtaba Rahman, head of the Europe desk at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group.
Le Pen "is no more moderate or reasonable today than she has been historically," he said in a note ahead of the vote. "She remains an extreme right force in French politics."
See more here:
France's liberal base is aging fast. Macron now needs to win over angry younger voters - CNBC
- Have the Liberal Arts Gone Conservative? - The New Yorker - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- Letters to the Editor: 'I see myself in Katie Britt' what liberal critics missed in the senator's response - Los Angeles Times - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- Even when it criticizes Israel, the liberal world is not against us - opinion - The Jerusalem Post - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- Former Trump Aide Alyssa Farah Griffin Becomes a Liberal Favorite - The New York Times - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- Renowned author, liberal arts proponent to deliver annual Lester Lectures - Mercer University - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- NYU to Host Zaheer Ali at the Annual Liberal Studies Student Research ColloquiumApril 5 - NYU - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- Power to the Neighborhoods!: New York City Growth Politics, Neighborhood Liberalism, and the Origins of the ... - Joint Center for Housing Studies - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- Canada's Conservatives back NDP-Liberal anti-scab legislation that undermines the right to strike - WSWS - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- The Surprising Left-Right Alliance That Wants More Apartments in Suburbs - The New York Times - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- PARKER: Clarence Thomas, liberal racism and the ongoing denigration of Black conservatives - Kankakee Daily Journal - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- Liberal Media Scream: Hollywoods freaks over Trump - Washington Examiner - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- Why liberals failed in the fight against antisemitism - JNS.org - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- Liberal Renew manifesto sneak peek and bits from Bucharest congress - EURACTIV - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- Katie Britt calls on liberal media 'to pay attention' to border - 1819 News - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- Liberal truck wash cited $171k for OSHA violations - KSN-TV - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- Over 30,000 Killed in Gaza, but Even Israel's 'Liberal Left' Says: That's War - Opinion - Haaretz - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- Liberal Man Injured in Beaver County Accident - KSCB News.net - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- What is the Market's View on China Liberal Education Holdings Ltd (CLEU) Stock's Price and Volume Trends Monday? - InvestorsObserver - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- German liberals send defence expert into tripartite EU election leadership team - EURACTIV - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- Ramaswamy warns liberal justices 'buying political latitude' with 9-0 ruling as more Trump cases lie ahead - Fox News - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- How much of this is propelled by white liberal guilt from executives?: Gutfeld - Fox News - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- Liberals and the Libel of Christian Nationalism - The Imaginative Conservative - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- Liberal Arts & Science Academy - Austin extends home winning streak to seven - MaxPreps - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- Liberal Racism and the Denigration of Black Conservatives - Daily Signal - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- Watchdog group exposes radical, liberal ideology of school-based health centers - The Lion - March 12th, 2024 [March 12th, 2024]
- What happens when a liberal learns her family owned slaves? - Leader & Times - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Is it Liberal Arts, Without the Arts? - Xavier Newswire - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Quebec Liberal Party would be more popular with Denis Coderre at the helm: poll - Montreal Gazette - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Maine's Liberal Members of Congress Stand by Biden After Disastrous, Confused Press Conference - The Maine Wire - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Liberal Media Scream: Kristen Welker likes to lecture Republicans, too - Washington Examiner - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Australia's only Liberal government lives on - for now - Yahoo News Australia - February 11th, 2024 [February 11th, 2024]
- Liberal institutions are the threat to liberal institutions Claudine Gay is warning about - Washington Examiner - January 10th, 2024 [January 10th, 2024]
- Elon Musk, the "free speech absolutist" kicks liberal journalists off Twitter - Daily Kos - January 10th, 2024 [January 10th, 2024]
- Liberal Arts and studies in humanities under attack on college campuses - The Community Word - January 10th, 2024 [January 10th, 2024]
- Liberal candidate for federal byelection planned to run for Conservatives last year - National Post - January 10th, 2024 [January 10th, 2024]
- Bill Barton: 'The Liberal by the Bay' - Redheaded Blackbelt - December 7th, 2023 [December 7th, 2023]
- OPINION | Female-dominated liberal arts imperative in male-dominated tech world - Tulane Hullabaloo - December 7th, 2023 [December 7th, 2023]
- Dean of the College of Liberal and Fine Arts job with Tarleton State University | 37572379 - The Chronicle of Higher Education - December 7th, 2023 [December 7th, 2023]
- Laughing Stock: 'A liberal agenda' may not be what you think - Tucson Weekly - December 7th, 2023 [December 7th, 2023]
- Justin Trudeau plays the Trump card - POLITICO - POLITICO - December 7th, 2023 [December 7th, 2023]
- Norman Lear, Producer Of TV's 'All In The Family' And Influential Liberal Advocate, Dies At 101 - Newstalk 750 - 103.7 ... - KFQD - December 7th, 2023 [December 7th, 2023]
- Kremlin Taps Liberal Businessman to Oppose Putin in 2024 Election Report - The Moscow Times - December 7th, 2023 [December 7th, 2023]
- Norman Lear, producer of TV's 'All in the Family' and influential liberal advocate, has died at 101 - WV News - December 7th, 2023 [December 7th, 2023]
- MoveOn Carries Out Layoffs as Liberal Groups Struggle to Raise Money - The New York Times - December 7th, 2023 [December 7th, 2023]
- Norman Lear, producer of TV's 'All in the Family' and influential liberal advocate, has died at 101 - El Paso Inc. - December 7th, 2023 [December 7th, 2023]
- UW System President suggests universities with high numbers of low income students should shift away from liberal arts - Wisconsin Examiner - December 7th, 2023 [December 7th, 2023]
- Norman Lear, producer of TV's 'All in the Family' and influential liberal advocate, has died at 101 - The Caledonian-Record - December 7th, 2023 [December 7th, 2023]
- Israels representative in New York resigned to protest Netanyahu. Now hes got some tough words for liberal New York Jews. - Forward - December 7th, 2023 [December 7th, 2023]
- Neal Milner: Watch That Swinging Door, Liberals, Lest It Hit You On The Way Out - Honolulu Civil Beat - December 7th, 2023 [December 7th, 2023]
- The Liberal Answer to Cancel Culture - Manhattan Institute - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Study: Liberal US priests facing 'progressive' extinction - The Pillar - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Liberal Jewish U.S. Groups Are Walking an Oh-So-Thin Tightrope - The New Republic - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Why a liberal arts degree is often a ticket to career success - USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Open Forum: In their time, founding fathers were liberal - The Winchester Star - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Liberals announce National Campaign Committee Co-Chairs - Liberal Party of Canada - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- UT College of Liberal Arts hosts panel about Senate Bill 17 - The Daily Texan - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Liberal Arts student uses platform to educate others on the ... - Pennsylvania State University - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Stanford celebrates 50 years of Structured Liberal Education ... - Stanford University News - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Brookline homes: One wealthy liberal town reckons with its past - The Boston Globe - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- The Value of a Liberal Arts Degree: Whats the Return on Investment? - The New York Times - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- California Police Say Investigation Ongoing into Death of Liberal Pro ... - Crime Report - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Liberal Arts, IST student scores sports technology internship with ... - Pennsylvania State University - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- And the award for the worst Liberal Party leader goes to... - The New Daily - November 8th, 2023 [November 8th, 2023]
- Street fights over prayer offer liberal Israelis a chance to define a Judaism they can believe in - JTA News - Jewish Telegraphic Agency - September 29th, 2023 [September 29th, 2023]
- Unmasking Hinduphobic Cartoons: The Liberal Media's Double Standard - The Jaipur Dialogues - September 29th, 2023 [September 29th, 2023]
- UC presents lecture on liberal arts featuring Michael W. Twitty - University of Cincinnati - September 29th, 2023 [September 29th, 2023]
- ISU makes progress on liberal arts cuts through incentivized ... - The Gazette - September 29th, 2023 [September 29th, 2023]
- Investing in the future of the liberal arts | Binghamton News - Binghamton - September 29th, 2023 [September 29th, 2023]
- Challenges to Liberal Democracy on Global Scale Is Topic of 2023 ... - University of Idaho - September 29th, 2023 [September 29th, 2023]
- Liberal Democrats edge ahead of Labour on charging, with free ... - Disability News Service - September 29th, 2023 [September 29th, 2023]
- Kerry Washington Creates $1 Million Earl and Valerie Washington ... - GW Today - September 29th, 2023 [September 29th, 2023]
- LILLEY: Justice Rouleau may have old Liberal Party ties but he's not Justin Trudeau's uncle or related at all - Toronto Sun - February 20th, 2023 [February 20th, 2023]
- Brian Lilley: Justice Rouleau may have old Liberal Party ties but he's not Justin Trudeau's uncle or related at all - The Province - February 20th, 2023 [February 20th, 2023]
- force.com - November 27th, 2022 [November 27th, 2022]
- Liberal Party SA - November 25th, 2022 [November 25th, 2022]
- Liberal Fascism: The Secret History of the American Left, From ... - November 25th, 2022 [November 25th, 2022]
- Ex-VP Hamid Ansari's 'Challenges to a liberal polity' book review: The politics of being Indian - The New Indian Express - November 7th, 2022 [November 7th, 2022]
- English | Liberal Arts | UT - Austin - November 5th, 2022 [November 5th, 2022]
- Liberal values are absolute - The Tribune India - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]
- Fixing another liberal tax burden - The Hill - October 17th, 2022 [October 17th, 2022]