DAVID HOULE: It’s time to worry and be open-eyed about our future – Sarasota Herald-Tribune

David Houle| Sarasota Herald-Tribune

It is time to accept what is going on today and be open-eyed about our future.

Recent columns in this space have been about the growing perception many of us have about the changes that have occurred in the place we often call paradise. The first two columns addressed many of the issues that clearly many of you are concerned about:traffic, lack of affordable housing, homelessness in the present, andever more development and issues around climate change in the future.

In order to move beyond simple complaining and the legacy thinking that has gotten us here, we need to start to adjust our vision. We are at a fork in the road andneed to choose between the road we are already on and the road of creating the future we want.

It used to be that there were climate change deniers in America. This was understandable 20-30 years ago when the climate crisis of today was not yet fully apparent. The level of CO2 in the atmosphereand the resulting warming of the Earthis at a level unprecedented during the time that homo sapiens have been on the planet. If something has never happened before, it is understandable that some people would think that, prior to sound evidence at the personal level, something might not be real.

Now, of course, the reality of the climate crisis is real, present and obvious. In the last few years, only those who dont watch the news can deny the unfolding climate crisis. Ask the residents of Casey Key about their disappearing beaches. Ask the tens of thousands of California residents who have lost their homes to fires due to an unprecedented drought. Ask the meteorologists who report the clear increase in Cat 3, 4, and 5 level hurricanes. Ask the record keepers about the unprecedented incidence of tornados. Ask the ski resort owners in Europe and the U.S. about the fact that their seasons are at least a month shorter than 30 years ago.

At the same time that deniers were loudly denying it, scientists were making incorrect forecasts about the timing of the warming of the planet. Incorrect because the rate of the warming and consequences were much more rapid than expected. For example, sea level rise has been one foot in the last hundred years in our area. We now know that the rate of SLR is increasing to such a degreethat we might see one foot of SLR in the next 50 years or less.

Yet we in the Gulf Coast are not really taking this reality and truly dealing with it. Massive beachfront real estate developments on Lido and Longboat Key, and the Bayfront downtown all seem to come from the legacy thinking that does not take into account the climate crisis. I have often been asked what I think about such developments, and my simple answer is that economics will need to be structured for a 10-20 year timeline of economic return, not the 30-50 years that have been used.

Sarasota, and the barrier island beach communities of the Gulf Coast, are places that derive a lot of economic benefit from beach tourism. 2021 was the best year on record for Sarasota tourism, but we need to worry. Worry will lead us to think differently about our future. Thinking things will continue as they have is truly a recipe for disaster in the 2020s.

How do we plan for a vibrant Sarasota in 2040? We let go of legacy thinking. We let go of any lingering climate denial.It is the reality of our future.

An example of thinking differently is an exercise that Tim Rumage and I developed several years ago. Tim is the head of environmental studies at the Ringling College of Art andDesign, my co-author of This Spaceship Earth and a planetary ethicist. Building upon our Birds Eye View video, we incorporated the inevitability of SLR into our planning (thisspaceshipearth.org/2017/01/birds-eye-view-video/).

We then analyzed what tourists like to do at a beach resort lie in the sun, walk the beach, go swimming, eat food, paddle board, kite surf, fish, water ski, go boating and generally hang out in sun and surf. How can all these things continue if the beaches go away?

We took the concept of a pier, which is perpendicular to a beach, and decided to make it parallel to the beach. Located at the right distance from what is the beach now, say 100-400 yards out in the water from current high tide lines. Make each structure Lido, Siesta, LBK, Anna Maria perhaps half to a mile long and some 50 yards wide. On it have shade places, places to lie in the sun, steps and diving platforms into the water, places for boats to dock, places for the water taxis that can leave from each key or downtown, food stands, and water equipment rentals.

In addition to the platform, underneath itcreate a reef of art sculptures and various sunken items the classic car reef under the Siesta structure, art sculptures off of formerly Lido beach, and sunken boats under the LBK structure. Whatever works.

What this underwater reef will provide are two things of significance. First, a reef, which will lessen the erosion inherent in SLR and restore aquatic life. Second, it will create a place to snorkel and scuba dive, something that the Gulf Coast is not strong on. People dont come to Sarasota to snorkel and scuba dive. In the future they will. Sarasota can become the first, truly unique place to visit as one can snorkel over a reef of classic cars, sculptures or sunken boats. Something that will be a vanguard of a tourist destination in the age of climate crisis.

Now this column is not about this specific idea, but about the absolute need to think in new and creative ways about the future of our beautiful part of the world. Time to start.

Sarasota resident David Houle is a globally recognized futurist. He has given speeches on six continents, written 13 books and is futurist in residence at Ringling College of Art andDesign. His websites aredavidhoule.comand the2020sdecade.com. Email him at david@davidhoule.com.

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DAVID HOULE: It's time to worry and be open-eyed about our future - Sarasota Herald-Tribune