Everybody is always looking for an edge in sports betting, its what you do when making any kind of investment. What many people are somewhat surprised to learn is that there is much more to getting one up on the best offshore sportsbooks than knowing every player, combing over every stat, and following every trend.
We have already covered the green lumber fallacy in sports betting, based on the famous anecdote about one of the best construction material traders in the world not knowing that green referred to wood that was just cut, not the color the boards were painted. That trader, Joe Siegel, rose to the top of his craft by evaluating order flow, price dynamics, and other factors instead of the product itself.
Its important to dive deeper into other theories around sports betting besides the actual game itself. None of these are foolproof obviously otherwise Las Vegas wouldnt be building new hotels every year but at least knowing about these strategies can only help build a better overall gambler.
Fading Majority Wagers
Almost every seasoned sports bettor knows that if a point spread looks too good to be true it probably is. Sportsbooks set the line, so it doesnt make sense that these well-paid, experienced professionals with insider information on every team in every sport would simply be wrong with their numbers.
As a sports bettor, its also really easy to overthink things, and not everybody is going to have the same read on a game. That being said if something like 85% of the public is on one side and the point spread is not moving, that should get the Spidey senses tingling. Then again 100 bets at $1 still equates to the same amount of money on a game as 1 wager at $100.
Ultimately the best approach in fading the public is if that youre not comfortable with the percentage of bets on one side, dont play the game. Sportsbooks know the fading the public angle so sometimes they lay the trap on the overthinkers as well.
The Value Is on the Better Price
To say that a wager such as the Yankees -500 doesnt have value just because it is high priced is simply not true. Sure there are games on each slate that have better value, and there are games with a higher return on investment but a team can also have value at any price.
Underdogs definitely have better odds, but thats for a reason because they are less likely to win. Ultimately taking huge favorites really depends on the bankroll. Its not a great idea to go all in on the Yankees -500 just to add $100 to your pot, but spending $5000 (of a $10,000 bankroll) to win $1000 is how high rollers build up their bankroll.
Parlays Have Better Odds
The theory on parlays is a combative one. On one hand, youre probably just burning money putting in 10-team parlays every week but at the same time with the crazy odds that a wager like that has you really only need one hit to have your bets covered for the year.
What many gamblers will say is that its hard enough to get one game right, so trying to correctly call 3,4, or 5+ games is nearly impossible. Most bettors are rational enough to know that a parlay is probably a lost bet kind of like a lottery ticket but they are still fun, which is ultimately what this should all be about.
Excerpt from:
Three Sports Betting Theories and If They Actually Work - The Sports Bank
- 38 states rake in millions in sports betting while Oklahoma still waits for legalization - KOKI FOX 23 TULSA - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Sports Betting Scandals Are Piling Up. What It Means for Gambling Stocks. - Barron's - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Sports betting: How gambling can impact the integrity of the game - WRAL News - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- A new coalition wants to address the risks of youth sports betting in Massachusetts - Boston Herald - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- A Better East Texas: Professional sports betting scandals - KLTV - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Sports betting won't be legal in Georgia after lawmakers couldn't agree on how to spend taxes - goskagit.com - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Sports betting bill will help MN veterans, charities - ECM Publishers - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Sports betting won't be legal in Georgia after lawmakers couldn't agree on how to spend taxes - Bowling Green Daily News - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- NCAA set to push states with legalized sports betting to ban prop bets for all college sporting events - Yahoo Sports - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Sports betting addiction on the rise - Toledo - WTVG - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Pritzker eyes bigger piece of Illinois sports betting action after 4 booming years - WVIK - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- All Eyes on Georgia Sports Betting During Final Legislative Day - Sports Betting Dime - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Best North Carolina sports betting promos for UNC vs. Alabama in Sweet 16: Claim thousands in NC sportsbook ... - Sporting News - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- South Carolina Sports Betting 2024: Best SC Sportsbooks - The Hudson Reporter - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- A Better East Texas: Professional sports betting scandals - KTRE - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Sports betting hits ground running | wltx.com - WLTX.com - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- North Carolina reports nearly $200m in handle in first week of legalized sports gambling - EGR Global - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- I got over 100 messages telling me I suck: UNC basketball star concerned with hate messages after sports betting takes off - WGHP FOX8 Greensboro - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Fanatics replaces PointsBet in Kansas - Sports betting - iGB - iGaming Business - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Sports betting addiction on the rise - Wichita - KWCH - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- 'March Madness' Sports Betting Is Big Business - Investopedia - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Get $250 in bonus bets for UNC vs. Alabama with this NC sports betting bonus before tonight's 9:39 p.m. ET tip-off - syracuse.com - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- IGA executive director confident of California sports betting with tribal help - iGaming Business - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Georgia Sports Betting Legislation Fails Once Again - Winners and Whiners - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Sports betting won't be legal in Georgia after lawmakers couldn't agree on how to spend taxes - The Caledonian-Record - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Sports Betting Scandals: Ohtani Fallout and NCAA Prop Betting Ban - SportsGrid - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Sports gambling has gotten out of control - The Philadelphia Inquirer - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Best Sports Betting Apps in the US in March 2024 - Gaming Today - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Survey finds majority of Canadians want immediate nationwide sports betting ad ban - EGR Global - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Authorizing sports betting in Georgia may lack needed votes from lawmakers - goskagit.com - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Sports Betting is coming to NC in one month - WWAY NewsChannel 3 - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- $3.5 million wagered across Maine in first Super Bowl since launch of online sports betting - Maine Public - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Sports Betting Bill Clears Another Missouri House Committee - Covers - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- I-TEAM: Sports Betting/Online Gambling Addictions growing on CT college campuses - Eyewitness News 3 - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Ohio gamblers place more than $7.6B in bets in first year - Dayton Daily News - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Sports betting in Minnesota: What are the odds it becomes legal? - KARE11.com - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- North Carolina Issues First Batch of Sports Betting Licenses to Suppliers - Covers - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Will Kentucky cover the spread vs. Ole Miss? Betting Trends, Record ATS - WYMT - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- NFL Playoffs Fuel Record-Breaking Contributions From Maryland's Sports Betting - Bay Net - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Will Louisville cover the spread vs. Boston College? Betting Trends, Record ATS - WYMT - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- BetMGM and X Sign Exclusive Sports Betting Partnership - PR Newswire - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Gambling disorders on the rise nationwide after legalization of sports betting - Q2 News - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Why US sports betting could become a $45 billion business - Goldman Sachs - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Will Colorado State cover the spread vs. San Diego State? Betting Trends, Record ATS - Wyoming News Now - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Will Michigan cover the spread vs. Illinois? Betting Trends, Record ATS - WLUC - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Are the Suns favored vs. the Kings on February 13? Game odds, spread, over/under - WYMT - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- With three months in the books, Maine sports betting readies for Super Bowl - Press Herald - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Sports betting is coming to X as Musk's site partners with BetMGM - Washington Times - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Hard Rock Bet Promo Code: Sign Up And Claim $100 In Bonuses - RotoWire - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Will North Carolina cover the spread vs. Syracuse? Betting Trends, Record ATS - KNOP - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- State Rep. Blackshear: 'Nave' to think sports betting isn't already taking place in Alabama - Yellowhammer News - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Will Creighton cover the spread vs. Georgetown? Betting Trends, Record ATS - WYMT - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Did You Bet on the Super Bowl? Don't Forget About Taxes - Kiplinger's Personal Finance - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Super Bowl sports betting expected to exceed a whopping $23 billion but there's a catch - TheStreet - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Will Buffalo cover the spread vs. Northern Illinois? Betting Trends, Record ATS - WWNY - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Opinion | The ultimate Vegas wedding: The Super Bowl and sports betting - The Washington Post - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Will Dayton cover the spread vs. Duquesne? Betting Trends, Record ATS - FOX19 - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Are the Thunder favored vs. the Magic on February 13? Game odds, spread, over/under - KOLN - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Will Ohio State cover the spread vs. Wisconsin? Betting Trends, Record ATS - FOX19 - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Sports betting and Swifties converge on the Super Bowl - Axios - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- The Lawyer Who Took on Big Tobacco Is Now Fighting an Online Sports Betting Giant - VICE - December 12th, 2023 [December 12th, 2023]
- First two months of sports betting in Kentucky generates millions in tax revenue - WKYT - December 12th, 2023 [December 12th, 2023]
- Maryland sports betting hits a record high, bringing in over $3M in November - Fox Baltimore - December 12th, 2023 [December 12th, 2023]
- Gov. Beshear: Over $656 million wagered since launch of sports betting - LEX 18 News - Lexington, KY - December 12th, 2023 [December 12th, 2023]
- Monday Night Football, NFL Betting Picks & Props: New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers, Week 14 - RotoWire - December 12th, 2023 [December 12th, 2023]
- Seminoles expand casino, sports-betting options as litigation continues - Florida Phoenix - December 12th, 2023 [December 12th, 2023]
- ESPN BET Massachusetts Promo Code TELEGRAM $250 In Bonus Bets With Any Wager on MNF, Pats! - Worcester Telegram - December 12th, 2023 [December 12th, 2023]
- New York Sports Betting Handle Tops $2.1bn In November - SBC Americas - December 12th, 2023 [December 12th, 2023]
- Maryland Sets State Sports Betting Record in November - Sports Betting Dime - December 12th, 2023 [December 12th, 2023]
- Get ESPN App To Bet Monday Night Football With $250 Sign-Up Bonus - Sports Betting Dime - December 12th, 2023 [December 12th, 2023]
- Vermont is Getting Close to Launching Sports Betting - Covers - December 12th, 2023 [December 12th, 2023]
- FanDuel Promo Code offers $150 if your team wins on 'MNF' or any game - New York Post - December 12th, 2023 [December 12th, 2023]
- Kentucky Governor confirms early sports betting tax revenue exceeding expectations - EGR Global - December 12th, 2023 [December 12th, 2023]
- How ESPN Bet is taking on sports betting giants with launch campaign - Campaign US - December 12th, 2023 [December 12th, 2023]
- Saints-Panthers, NFC South race a tossup: Watch Bayou Bets | Sports Betting - NOLA.com - December 12th, 2023 [December 12th, 2023]
- NFL Betting: Coach of the Year Update - NBC Sports - December 12th, 2023 [December 12th, 2023]
- Heres what to know as the Seminole Tribe launches sports betting, table games in Tampa - FOX 13 Tampa - December 12th, 2023 [December 12th, 2023]
- Maryland Sets New State Record with $550M Handle in November - Covers - December 12th, 2023 [December 12th, 2023]
- Will Seton Hall cover the spread vs. Monmouth? Betting Trends, Record ATS - WAFB - December 12th, 2023 [December 12th, 2023]
- Hard Rock Casino launches new table games, sports betting in Florida - Bay News 9 - December 12th, 2023 [December 12th, 2023]