Last week might have been the worst sports-betting week of my life. So Im sure were both sure I have something of value to say, right?
Into Week 14 we go.
Although Im not a trends bettor, I find that using the Action Labs database helps me identify spots I should consider further when analyzing games.
Lets take a look at a few trends for the early spreads and totals for this upcoming week.
For the rest of my Week 14 plays, check out the FTN Bet Tracker as well as my best bets article.
All lines are from the Action Network NFL Odds page.
Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).
The Browns are No. 6 in the league with their 46.8% rush rate; the Ravens, No. 8 at 45.9% (per the FTN NFL Pace & Run/Pass Report). In this matchup, we have two teams that will rely heavily on the ground game, which will likely result in slow inefficient drives and a consistently running play clock.
On top of that, the Ravens and Browns are divisional rivals. Like an old married couple, they know each others tendencies and tricks and they hate each other. No easy points will be given.
Add in the fact that this is an outdoor game with the weather getting colder, and the under becomes highly attractive. In divisional games played outdoors in December and January, the under is 292-230-15 (8.9% ROI).
Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield should be healthier coming out of the Week 13 bye, but he has been battling shoulder, foot, and groin injuries for the past month, and over that span the Browns have averaged just 10 points per game as he has completed only 50.6% of his passes with 4.8 adjusted yards per attempt-.
As for the Ravens, quarterback Lamar Jackson has thrown eight interceptions over his past four games.
When the Browns and Ravens played in Week 12, they combined for just 26 points.
Action: Under 43 (-110) at PointsBetLimit: 41.5 (-110)
Its not as if the entirety of quarterback Dak Prescotts career can be broken down to one split but it kind of can.
Against his NFC East rivals, the Cowboys passer has overperformed. Against non-divisional opponents, Prescott has been less than mediocre.
On average, the Cowboys with Prescott have outperformed the spread by a margin of +5.4 points against the NFC East. They havent just beaten their division. Theyve dominated it.
In offensive expected points added (EPA), the Cowboys are No. 11 per play (0.055); the Football Team, No. 19 (0.015).
In defensive EPA, the Cowboys are No. 5 (-0.069); the Football Team, No. 30 (0.112, per Ben Baldwins RBs Dont Matter website).
Anything the Football Team can do, the Cowboys can do better.
With three extra days to rest and prepare coming off Thursday Night Football, the Cowboys should cover.
Action: Cowboys -4.5 at BetMGMLimit: -6.5 (-110)
Im a simple man. I live by a few rules.
One of them is that I bet on Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers at home, where hes an outrageous 67-36-4 ATS for his career.
Say whatever you want about the predictiveness of trends, but not betting on Rodgers at Lambeau Field has historically been the equivalent of refusing free money.
Additionally, Rodgers has been absurdly dominant against the NFC North. For his career, hes 48-28 ATS in division and 24-12 ATS at home against division.
Off the bye, I expect the Packers to be sharp as cheese #NailedIt given that Rodgers is 11-5-1 ATS off the bye week. Against the NFC North, hes 5-0 ATS off the bye.
And hes playing the Bears, whom, in case youve forgotten, he owns.
No team has been more generous to Packers bettors than the Bears, against whom Rodgers is 20-7 ATS.
And against Bears head coach Matt Nagy, Rodgers and Packers head coach Matt LaFleur are 5-0 ATS.
The 2021 Packers are a league-best 10-2 ATS.
Im admittedly a square but I cant imagine not betting on Rodgers and the Packers in this spot.
Action: Packers -11.5 at DraftKingsLimit: -13.5 (-110)
See the rest here:
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- Sports Betting Scandals Are Piling Up. What It Means for Gambling Stocks. - Barron's - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
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- A Better East Texas: Professional sports betting scandals - KLTV - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Sports betting won't be legal in Georgia after lawmakers couldn't agree on how to spend taxes - goskagit.com - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
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- Sports betting won't be legal in Georgia after lawmakers couldn't agree on how to spend taxes - Bowling Green Daily News - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- NCAA set to push states with legalized sports betting to ban prop bets for all college sporting events - Yahoo Sports - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Sports betting addiction on the rise - Toledo - WTVG - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
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- A Better East Texas: Professional sports betting scandals - KTRE - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Sports betting hits ground running | wltx.com - WLTX.com - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- North Carolina reports nearly $200m in handle in first week of legalized sports gambling - EGR Global - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
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- Georgia Sports Betting Legislation Fails Once Again - Winners and Whiners - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Sports betting won't be legal in Georgia after lawmakers couldn't agree on how to spend taxes - The Caledonian-Record - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Sports Betting Scandals: Ohtani Fallout and NCAA Prop Betting Ban - SportsGrid - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Sports gambling has gotten out of control - The Philadelphia Inquirer - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
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- Authorizing sports betting in Georgia may lack needed votes from lawmakers - goskagit.com - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Sports Betting is coming to NC in one month - WWAY NewsChannel 3 - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
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- I-TEAM: Sports Betting/Online Gambling Addictions growing on CT college campuses - Eyewitness News 3 - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Ohio gamblers place more than $7.6B in bets in first year - Dayton Daily News - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Sports betting in Minnesota: What are the odds it becomes legal? - KARE11.com - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
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- Will Kentucky cover the spread vs. Ole Miss? Betting Trends, Record ATS - WYMT - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
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- Why US sports betting could become a $45 billion business - Goldman Sachs - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Will Colorado State cover the spread vs. San Diego State? Betting Trends, Record ATS - Wyoming News Now - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
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- Are the Suns favored vs. the Kings on February 13? Game odds, spread, over/under - WYMT - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- With three months in the books, Maine sports betting readies for Super Bowl - Press Herald - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
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- Will North Carolina cover the spread vs. Syracuse? Betting Trends, Record ATS - KNOP - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
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- Did You Bet on the Super Bowl? Don't Forget About Taxes - Kiplinger's Personal Finance - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Super Bowl sports betting expected to exceed a whopping $23 billion but there's a catch - TheStreet - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Will Buffalo cover the spread vs. Northern Illinois? Betting Trends, Record ATS - WWNY - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Opinion | The ultimate Vegas wedding: The Super Bowl and sports betting - The Washington Post - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
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- The Lawyer Who Took on Big Tobacco Is Now Fighting an Online Sports Betting Giant - VICE - December 12th, 2023 [December 12th, 2023]
- First two months of sports betting in Kentucky generates millions in tax revenue - WKYT - December 12th, 2023 [December 12th, 2023]
- Maryland sports betting hits a record high, bringing in over $3M in November - Fox Baltimore - December 12th, 2023 [December 12th, 2023]
- Gov. Beshear: Over $656 million wagered since launch of sports betting - LEX 18 News - Lexington, KY - December 12th, 2023 [December 12th, 2023]
- Monday Night Football, NFL Betting Picks & Props: New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers, Week 14 - RotoWire - December 12th, 2023 [December 12th, 2023]
- Seminoles expand casino, sports-betting options as litigation continues - Florida Phoenix - December 12th, 2023 [December 12th, 2023]
- ESPN BET Massachusetts Promo Code TELEGRAM $250 In Bonus Bets With Any Wager on MNF, Pats! - Worcester Telegram - December 12th, 2023 [December 12th, 2023]
- New York Sports Betting Handle Tops $2.1bn In November - SBC Americas - December 12th, 2023 [December 12th, 2023]
- Maryland Sets State Sports Betting Record in November - Sports Betting Dime - December 12th, 2023 [December 12th, 2023]
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- Heres what to know as the Seminole Tribe launches sports betting, table games in Tampa - FOX 13 Tampa - December 12th, 2023 [December 12th, 2023]
- Maryland Sets New State Record with $550M Handle in November - Covers - December 12th, 2023 [December 12th, 2023]
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- Hard Rock Casino launches new table games, sports betting in Florida - Bay News 9 - December 12th, 2023 [December 12th, 2023]