Last week might have been the worst sports-betting week of my life. So Im sure were both sure I have something of value to say, right?
Into Week 14 we go.
Although Im not a trends bettor, I find that using the Action Labs database helps me identify spots I should consider further when analyzing games.
Lets take a look at a few trends for the early spreads and totals for this upcoming week.
For the rest of my Week 14 plays, check out the FTN Bet Tracker as well as my best bets article.
All lines are from the Action Network NFL Odds page.
Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).
The Browns are No. 6 in the league with their 46.8% rush rate; the Ravens, No. 8 at 45.9% (per the FTN NFL Pace & Run/Pass Report). In this matchup, we have two teams that will rely heavily on the ground game, which will likely result in slow inefficient drives and a consistently running play clock.
On top of that, the Ravens and Browns are divisional rivals. Like an old married couple, they know each others tendencies and tricks and they hate each other. No easy points will be given.
Add in the fact that this is an outdoor game with the weather getting colder, and the under becomes highly attractive. In divisional games played outdoors in December and January, the under is 292-230-15 (8.9% ROI).
Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield should be healthier coming out of the Week 13 bye, but he has been battling shoulder, foot, and groin injuries for the past month, and over that span the Browns have averaged just 10 points per game as he has completed only 50.6% of his passes with 4.8 adjusted yards per attempt-.
As for the Ravens, quarterback Lamar Jackson has thrown eight interceptions over his past four games.
When the Browns and Ravens played in Week 12, they combined for just 26 points.
Action: Under 43 (-110) at PointsBetLimit: 41.5 (-110)
Its not as if the entirety of quarterback Dak Prescotts career can be broken down to one split but it kind of can.
Against his NFC East rivals, the Cowboys passer has overperformed. Against non-divisional opponents, Prescott has been less than mediocre.
On average, the Cowboys with Prescott have outperformed the spread by a margin of +5.4 points against the NFC East. They havent just beaten their division. Theyve dominated it.
In offensive expected points added (EPA), the Cowboys are No. 11 per play (0.055); the Football Team, No. 19 (0.015).
In defensive EPA, the Cowboys are No. 5 (-0.069); the Football Team, No. 30 (0.112, per Ben Baldwins RBs Dont Matter website).
Anything the Football Team can do, the Cowboys can do better.
With three extra days to rest and prepare coming off Thursday Night Football, the Cowboys should cover.
Action: Cowboys -4.5 at BetMGMLimit: -6.5 (-110)
Im a simple man. I live by a few rules.
One of them is that I bet on Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers at home, where hes an outrageous 67-36-4 ATS for his career.
Say whatever you want about the predictiveness of trends, but not betting on Rodgers at Lambeau Field has historically been the equivalent of refusing free money.
Additionally, Rodgers has been absurdly dominant against the NFC North. For his career, hes 48-28 ATS in division and 24-12 ATS at home against division.
Off the bye, I expect the Packers to be sharp as cheese #NailedIt given that Rodgers is 11-5-1 ATS off the bye week. Against the NFC North, hes 5-0 ATS off the bye.
And hes playing the Bears, whom, in case youve forgotten, he owns.
No team has been more generous to Packers bettors than the Bears, against whom Rodgers is 20-7 ATS.
And against Bears head coach Matt Nagy, Rodgers and Packers head coach Matt LaFleur are 5-0 ATS.
The 2021 Packers are a league-best 10-2 ATS.
Im admittedly a square but I cant imagine not betting on Rodgers and the Packers in this spot.
Action: Packers -11.5 at DraftKingsLimit: -13.5 (-110)
See the rest here:
- Iowa-based athletes in betting inquiry sue, say rights violated - ESPN - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Roger Goodell tries to reconcile the NFL's embrace of sports betting - NBC Sports - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Shedeur Sanders is the betting favorite to go first overall in the 2024 NFL draft - Yahoo Sports - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
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- Nevada Sports Betting Handle Fails To Hit $800 Million For March - Sports Handle - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- ESPN BET Vermont Promo Code For April 29th, 2024: Everything You Need to Know - Bookies.com - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
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- An Under In A Braves Game? It Could Happen Tonight - Outkick - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- BetMGM Bonus Code BOOKIES: Get Up To $1,500 In Bonuses On April 28th, 2024 - Bookies.com - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Odds, Picks, Props & Injury Reports for Game 4 - Sports Betting Dime - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Thanks to NCAA Tournament, Delaware sees uptick in sports betting numbers in March - Delaware First Media - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- The impacts of banning bonuses on the sports betting and online gaming market in Brazil - Games Magazine Brasil - GAMES MAGAZINE BRASIL - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Elon faculty featured in FOX8 report on legalized sports betting in N.C. - Today at Elon - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- NASCAR Dover 2024 Weekend Betting Recap I NASCAR Gambling Podcast (Ep. 401) - SGPN - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- MLB Betting and DFS Podcast: The Solo Shot, Monday 4/29/24 - FanDuel Research - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Iowa athletes file federal lawsuit against DCI over sports betting probe - The Gazette - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Fanatics Sportsbook North Carolina Promo: Bet And Get $1K In Bonuses For April 29th, 2024 - Bookies.com - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- The Coyotes Are Now Inactive. Their Sports Betting License Is Not - Sportico - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- DraftKings $200 Promo Code: Bet $5, Get $200 In Bonuses On April 29th, 2024 - Bookies.com - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- SeguroBet sees sports betting and iGaming strengthened after participation in BiS SiGMA Americas - Games Magazine ... - GAMES MAGAZINE BRASIL - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Iowa College Athletes Going to Federal Courts Over Sports Betting Violations - OddsShopper.com - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- What are the Main Differences Between Esports and Traditional Sports Betting? - Esports News UK - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Iowa athletes file federal lawsuit against DCI after sports betting investigation - UI The Daily Iowan - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Minnesota Timberwolves vs Phoenix Suns Game 4 Predictions, Player Props & Odds (April 28) - Sports Betting Dime - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Sports betting CPI hears from Brazilian Footbal Confederation representatives this Monday - Games Magazine Brasil - GAMES MAGAZINE BRASIL - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- NBA Betting Promos For Heat vs. Celtics, Game 4 - Winners and Whiners - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Betway Sportsbook Promo Code: Grab A First Bet Reset Of Up To $250 For NBA On April 29th 2024 - Bookies.com - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Kentucky Derby Projected to Receive More Attention in 2024 - Covers - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- 38 states rake in millions in sports betting while Oklahoma still waits for legalization - KOKI FOX 23 TULSA - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Sports Betting Scandals Are Piling Up. What It Means for Gambling Stocks. - Barron's - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Sports betting: How gambling can impact the integrity of the game - WRAL News - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- A new coalition wants to address the risks of youth sports betting in Massachusetts - Boston Herald - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- A Better East Texas: Professional sports betting scandals - KLTV - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Sports betting won't be legal in Georgia after lawmakers couldn't agree on how to spend taxes - goskagit.com - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Sports betting bill will help MN veterans, charities - ECM Publishers - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Sports betting won't be legal in Georgia after lawmakers couldn't agree on how to spend taxes - Bowling Green Daily News - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- NCAA set to push states with legalized sports betting to ban prop bets for all college sporting events - Yahoo Sports - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Sports betting addiction on the rise - Toledo - WTVG - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Pritzker eyes bigger piece of Illinois sports betting action after 4 booming years - WVIK - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- All Eyes on Georgia Sports Betting During Final Legislative Day - Sports Betting Dime - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Best North Carolina sports betting promos for UNC vs. Alabama in Sweet 16: Claim thousands in NC sportsbook ... - Sporting News - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- South Carolina Sports Betting 2024: Best SC Sportsbooks - The Hudson Reporter - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- A Better East Texas: Professional sports betting scandals - KTRE - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Sports betting hits ground running | wltx.com - WLTX.com - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- North Carolina reports nearly $200m in handle in first week of legalized sports gambling - EGR Global - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- I got over 100 messages telling me I suck: UNC basketball star concerned with hate messages after sports betting takes off - WGHP FOX8 Greensboro - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Fanatics replaces PointsBet in Kansas - Sports betting - iGB - iGaming Business - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Sports betting addiction on the rise - Wichita - KWCH - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- 'March Madness' Sports Betting Is Big Business - Investopedia - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Get $250 in bonus bets for UNC vs. Alabama with this NC sports betting bonus before tonight's 9:39 p.m. ET tip-off - syracuse.com - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- IGA executive director confident of California sports betting with tribal help - iGaming Business - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Georgia Sports Betting Legislation Fails Once Again - Winners and Whiners - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Sports betting won't be legal in Georgia after lawmakers couldn't agree on how to spend taxes - The Caledonian-Record - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Sports Betting Scandals: Ohtani Fallout and NCAA Prop Betting Ban - SportsGrid - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Sports gambling has gotten out of control - The Philadelphia Inquirer - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Best Sports Betting Apps in the US in March 2024 - Gaming Today - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Survey finds majority of Canadians want immediate nationwide sports betting ad ban - EGR Global - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Authorizing sports betting in Georgia may lack needed votes from lawmakers - goskagit.com - March 29th, 2024 [March 29th, 2024]
- Sports Betting is coming to NC in one month - WWAY NewsChannel 3 - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- $3.5 million wagered across Maine in first Super Bowl since launch of online sports betting - Maine Public - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Sports Betting Bill Clears Another Missouri House Committee - Covers - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- I-TEAM: Sports Betting/Online Gambling Addictions growing on CT college campuses - Eyewitness News 3 - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Ohio gamblers place more than $7.6B in bets in first year - Dayton Daily News - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Sports betting in Minnesota: What are the odds it becomes legal? - KARE11.com - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- North Carolina Issues First Batch of Sports Betting Licenses to Suppliers - Covers - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Will Kentucky cover the spread vs. Ole Miss? Betting Trends, Record ATS - WYMT - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- NFL Playoffs Fuel Record-Breaking Contributions From Maryland's Sports Betting - Bay Net - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Will Louisville cover the spread vs. Boston College? Betting Trends, Record ATS - WYMT - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- BetMGM and X Sign Exclusive Sports Betting Partnership - PR Newswire - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Gambling disorders on the rise nationwide after legalization of sports betting - Q2 News - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Why US sports betting could become a $45 billion business - Goldman Sachs - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Will Colorado State cover the spread vs. San Diego State? Betting Trends, Record ATS - Wyoming News Now - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Will Michigan cover the spread vs. Illinois? Betting Trends, Record ATS - WLUC - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Are the Suns favored vs. the Kings on February 13? Game odds, spread, over/under - WYMT - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- With three months in the books, Maine sports betting readies for Super Bowl - Press Herald - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Sports betting is coming to X as Musk's site partners with BetMGM - Washington Times - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Hard Rock Bet Promo Code: Sign Up And Claim $100 In Bonuses - RotoWire - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- Will North Carolina cover the spread vs. Syracuse? Betting Trends, Record ATS - KNOP - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]
- State Rep. Blackshear: 'Nave' to think sports betting isn't already taking place in Alabama - Yellowhammer News - February 13th, 2024 [February 13th, 2024]