An article in Ladies Home Journal predicted 2001 a century earlier. Heres a video version:
Futurism is a hit and miss business: Fast food is predicted (3:40) but so is the extinction of the horse (3:20). Apparently, the futurist, John Elfreth Watkins, Jr., did not foresee a future for horses in recreation and sports except for the rich.
He predicted the internet and wireless communications in principle (5:57, 13:29): A husband sitting in the middle of the Atlantic will be able to converse with his wife sitting in her boudoir in Chicago. But, surprisingly, he did not see much of a commercial future for the airplane but rather favored dirigibles and electrified ships (8:20ff).
He predicted high-speed trains but also electric sleighs for kids (17:16) Hmm. Did he not pause to think about concussion? No surprise, that idea never took off.
When predicting the future, we all may tend to either underestimate the advances:
The average American will live fifty years, as opposed to thirty-five
US life expectancy was about 78.6 years in 2017, principally due to clean water, healthier living conditions, and emergency medicine.
Or else we overestimate them:
The trip to suburban home to office will require only a few minutes a penny will pay the fare Dreamin
Commenters at YouTube offer some thoughts about what the 1901 futurist got right and wrong:
giant guns will fire 25 miles or more Paris gun 13 years later could fire 81 miles.
The whole well get rid of all the annoying flying bugs- thing showed that we clearly hadnt quite figured out the whole everything is connected aspect of the biosphere.
and
He predicted spy satellites in space before man had sent anything into space, granted he said theyd be balloons with cameras attached but they describe satellites
2010 looks back on a 1909 prediction, in this case by Nicola Tesla (18561943) in Popular Mechanics:
He wrote in the magazine that, one day it would be possible to transmit wireless messages all over the world.
Tesla, who spent most of his adult life in America before his death in New York in 1943, imagined such a hand-held device would be simple to use and that, one day, everyone in the world would communicate to friends using it.
This, he added, would usher in a new era of technology.
Imagine. A handheld device
2014 looks back on (roughly) 1914s predictions via French vintage postcards popular during the 1900 Worlds Fair and following:
One thing you see in the cards is a tendency to assume some things wont change, even though they undoubtedly will. In one image, a couple flags down an aerotaxi. Thats futuristic enough, but the man is wearing spats and carrying a cane, while she has a parasol and an enormous hat with a feather. Did they really think transportation would undergo a revolution while fashion stayed frozen in time? In every one of these you see a mix of a futuristic concept with stuff that looks to us to be very old fashioned, [collector Ed] Fries said.
At the same time, theres virtually no hint in the postcards of the truly transformative technologies of the last centurynamely personal computers and the internet.
Heres one card (public domain) depicting an aerocab station as seen from 1900:
Some of the jealously guarded cards are shown in this YouTube video.
and
2018 looks back on 1918s predictions:
On January 6, 1918, the headline of an article in The Washington Times announced that the Automobile of Tomorrow Will Be Constructed Like a Moving Drawing Room. The author was writing about a prediction in Scientific American that described the car of the future. It would be water-tight and weather-proof, with sides made entirely of glass, and seats that could be moved anywhere in the vehicle. It would be decked out with power steering, brakes, heating, and a small control board for navigation. A finger lever would replace the steering wheel. Other designs imagined that cars would roll around on just three wheels, or on air-filled spheres to remove the need for shocks.
So much is right; again, the parts that the futurist gets wrong likely stem from not envisioning practical issues like the increased hazard from smashed glass during a minor collision.
The big disadvantage of making predictions for a century hence is that we probably wont get to find out if they come true.
If you enjoyed this piece, you may also want to look at:
Truth is not only stranger than fiction, it sometimes grows out of it. A senior editor at Wired told us a while back that science fiction writer H. G. Wellss 1914 tale, The World Set Free, formed part of the inspiration for the atomic bomb, exploded over Hiroshima in 1945.
and
Brilliant vision from a century ago foretells todays internet. In E. M. Forsters dystopia, people interact only through the Machine.
Original post:
What Goes Right and Wrong When We Predict a High-Tech Future - Walter Bradley Center for Natural and Artificial Intelligence
- Tales of Kenzera review: a compassionate Afro-futurist exploration of grief - Eurogamer.net - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Mutant Bacteria Discovered Aboard International Space Station - Futurism - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Physicists Suggest Universe Is Full of Material Moving Faster Than Light - Futurism - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Plastic Is Starting to Generate a Staggering Proportion of Earth's Carbon Pollution - Futurism - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Head of NASA Says China Is Hiding Military Experiments in Space - Futurism - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- 4240 book ban tries, not bad for media that futurists said would be dead by now - Manteca Bulletin - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Chinese Cities Are Sinking Into the Earth, Scientists Find - Futurism - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- How one 'futurist' is using tech to run the London marathon faster - City A.M. - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- MIPAD announces the Global Top 100 Futurists Edition on World Creativity and Innovation Day - Africa.com - April 24th, 2024 [April 24th, 2024]
- Iwj Creators Imagine Adventure In Lagos Of The Future - Bossip - March 6th, 2024 [March 6th, 2024]
- Startup backed by Tesla investor says preorders for its $300,000 futuristic flying car have reached 2,850 - CNBC - March 6th, 2024 [March 6th, 2024]
- Cybertruck Crashes, Entire Wheel Ripped Off - Futurism - March 6th, 2024 [March 6th, 2024]
- Scientists Intrigued by Moving Sand Dune With Star-Like Arms - Futurism - March 6th, 2024 [March 6th, 2024]
- Dune soundtracks: everything you need to know about Hans Zimmers futuristic scores - Classic FM - March 6th, 2024 [March 6th, 2024]
- EMIR CEO and former Dubai chief futurist launch next generation advisory network of remarkable, seasoned executives - ZAWYA - March 6th, 2024 [March 6th, 2024]
- James Webb Spots "Extremely Red" Black Hole - Futurism - March 6th, 2024 [March 6th, 2024]
- Patti Payne: Here's a look into the mind of in-demand futurist Richard Yonck - Puget Sound Business Journal - The Business Journals - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- A futurist who isn't worried about AI - POLITICO - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Debunking doomerism: 4 futurists on why we're actually not f*cked - Big Think - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Former NASA Astronaut Explains How to Poop in Space - Futurism - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- This is the most absurd blend of retro-futuristic looks and server grade hardware that I've ever seen, and it's all in a ... - PC Gamer - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Dubai to kick off 'World's Largest Gathering of Futurists' tomorrow - Government of Dubai Media Office - November 26th, 2023 [November 26th, 2023]
- Destroying the Space Station Will Cost NASA $1 Billion - Futurism - November 26th, 2023 [November 26th, 2023]
- These Futuristic Treehouses in the Cotswolds Are Now Available to ... - Time Out UK - November 26th, 2023 [November 26th, 2023]
- Scientists Test "Caviar," Alarmed by What They Find - Futurism - November 26th, 2023 [November 26th, 2023]
- Survey Finds Half of Tech Workers Think AI Is a Bunch of Hype - Futurism - November 26th, 2023 [November 26th, 2023]
- YouTube Threatens to Become Even More Horrendous If You Have ... - Futurism - November 26th, 2023 [November 26th, 2023]
- Lawmakers Demand Investigation Into Carnage at Neuralink - Futurism - November 26th, 2023 [November 26th, 2023]
- Futuristic Fashion in Movies, Ranked from Worst to Best - MovieWeb - November 26th, 2023 [November 26th, 2023]
- Rocket That Smashed Into Moon Was Carrying Something Mysterious - Futurism - November 26th, 2023 [November 26th, 2023]
- Scientists Warn That AI Threatens Science Itself - Futurism - November 26th, 2023 [November 26th, 2023]
- Introducing the Callum Skye: A Futuristic Electric Off-Road Marvel - stupidDOPE.com - November 26th, 2023 [November 26th, 2023]
- James Webb Detects Unexplained Structures in Heart of Our Galaxy - Futurism - November 26th, 2023 [November 26th, 2023]
- The Hole in the Ozone Layer Is Getting Bigger Again, Scientists Say - Futurism - November 26th, 2023 [November 26th, 2023]
- Scientists Say These Villains Are Causing Way More Than Their ... - Futurism - November 26th, 2023 [November 26th, 2023]
- For the First Time, AI Brain Chips Allow Paralyzed Man to Move and ... - Futurism - September 1st, 2023 [September 1st, 2023]
- OpenAI Rages at Report That Google's New AI Crushes GPT-4 - Futurism - September 1st, 2023 [September 1st, 2023]
- Paolina Russo, the Brand Morphing Ancient Craft Into Futuristic ... - AnOther Magazine - September 1st, 2023 [September 1st, 2023]
- Are We Ready For This Site's Endless Feed of AI-Generated Porn? - Futurism - September 1st, 2023 [September 1st, 2023]
- Lawson addresses labor shortage with futuristic avatars | The Asahi ... - - September 1st, 2023 [September 1st, 2023]
- Paper Straws Are Actually Worse Than Plastic Ones, Scientists Say - Futurism - September 1st, 2023 [September 1st, 2023]
- AI's Dirty Secret: Poor People in the Developing World Are Doing ... - Futurism - September 1st, 2023 [September 1st, 2023]
- One-Off BMW K 1100 RS Cafe Racer Matches Futuristic Looks With ... - autoevolution - September 1st, 2023 [September 1st, 2023]
- Inter Miami: Lionel Messi's futuristic $50 million mansion is out of this ... - ClutchPoints - September 1st, 2023 [September 1st, 2023]
- 'The Creator' and Its War Between Humans and Artificial Intelligence - Collider - September 1st, 2023 [September 1st, 2023]
- Scientists Intrigued by Metal That Can Heal Itself After Damage - Futurism - July 21st, 2023 [July 21st, 2023]
- Scientists Surprised by DNA in Worms That Control Hosts' Brains - Futurism - July 21st, 2023 [July 21st, 2023]
- Brutal Heat Wave Is Literally Putting People Into Comas - Futurism - July 21st, 2023 [July 21st, 2023]
- will.i.am launches new AI-driven platform to 'co-pilot' creativity - Euronews - July 21st, 2023 [July 21st, 2023]
- Tesla may be on the brink of adopting a futuristic new way to charge its EVs without plugging them in at all - Yahoo News - July 21st, 2023 [July 21st, 2023]
- Futuristic Projections: Peptide Therapeutics Market to Skyrocket to ... - Digital Journal - July 21st, 2023 [July 21st, 2023]
- Teslas futuristic solar roof could help you save $350 a month and it could boost your homes resale value, too - Yahoo News - July 21st, 2023 [July 21st, 2023]
- Watch Celebrities Try to Patch Leaks in Simulated Mars Base - Futurism - July 21st, 2023 [July 21st, 2023]
- AI CEO Warns AI Will Be "Biggest Bubble of All Time" - Futurism - July 21st, 2023 [July 21st, 2023]
- Elon Musk Says Universe May Be Twice as Old as We Think, Dark ... - Futurism - July 21st, 2023 [July 21st, 2023]
- James Cameron Says He Tried to Warn Us About AI - Futurism - July 21st, 2023 [July 21st, 2023]
- Government Opens Investigation Into Tesla Autopilot Crash That ... - Futurism - July 21st, 2023 [July 21st, 2023]
- Top 20 Futurist & Future Trends Keynote Speakers (2023) - March 16th, 2023 [March 16th, 2023]
- What Does A Good Future Look Like? A Conversation With Futurist Keynote Speaker Gerd Leonhard - Forbes - March 16th, 2023 [March 16th, 2023]
- NEOM: All you need to know about Saudi Arabia's futuristic city without roads and cars | WATCH | Mint - Mint - February 20th, 2023 [February 20th, 2023]
- Yamaha Scooter 125cc: Company introduces futuristic scooter with E20 fuel-compliant engines; all you must know about this beauty - DNP INDIA - February 20th, 2023 [February 20th, 2023]
- Juice Americas Futurist Predicts Electric Vehicle Trends for 2023 | MOTOR - February 7th, 2023 [February 7th, 2023]
- List of Afrofuturist films - Wikipedia - February 7th, 2023 [February 7th, 2023]
- The two realities of the Shift Age | The Futurist - February 5th, 2023 [February 5th, 2023]
- 50 Leading Female Futurists - Forbes - January 27th, 2023 [January 27th, 2023]
- CNET's AI Journalist Appears to Have Committed Extensive Plagiarism - January 27th, 2023 [January 27th, 2023]
- Tin Mok Appointed to Faraday Future's Board of Directors as an Executive Director - Marketscreener.com - January 27th, 2023 [January 27th, 2023]
- Futuristic tech flagship smartphone the HUAWEI Mate50 Pro with ultimate Ultra Aperture XMAGE camera launches in SA - Mail and Guardian - January 27th, 2023 [January 27th, 2023]
- Nikolas Badminton | Futurist Speaker | Futurist Keynotes | Futurist.com - January 22nd, 2023 [January 22nd, 2023]
- 2023 The Year Ahead | The Futurist - January 22nd, 2023 [January 22nd, 2023]
- Skoda Enyaq iV 80x: A futuristic, modern EV with a range of 513 km, all you need to know about this SUV - DNP INDIA - January 8th, 2023 [January 8th, 2023]
- Futurist architecture - Wikipedia - December 23rd, 2022 [December 23rd, 2022]
- A futurist tells us what life will probably look like in 2040 - October 25th, 2022 [October 25th, 2022]
- Futurist predicts what the world will look like in 2122 - BGR - October 15th, 2022 [October 15th, 2022]
- A Wave of Incredible Heat Ripped Through Jupiter - Futurism - October 15th, 2022 [October 15th, 2022]
- $1.2 Billion Metaverse Horrified by Report It Only Had 38 Active Users - Futurism - October 15th, 2022 [October 15th, 2022]
- Ancient Life Caused the Destruction of Mars, Scientists Speculate - Futurism - October 15th, 2022 [October 15th, 2022]
- Elon Musk Says He Can't Give Free Starlink to Ukraine Anymore After Officials There Were Mean to Him - Futurism - October 15th, 2022 [October 15th, 2022]
- Check out This Amazing Fly-through of a Futuristic Space Habitat - Universe Today - October 15th, 2022 [October 15th, 2022]
- Investors in Elon Musk's Twitter Deal Horrified It Might Actually Go Through - Futurism - October 15th, 2022 [October 15th, 2022]