Tale of 2 Summits: Why Jacinda Ardern Said No to the Commonwealth, But Yes to NATO – The Diplomat

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New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Arderns decision toattendthe upcoming North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit in Spain but to skip the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in Rwanda symbolizes the changes she is making to New Zealand foreign policy.

The Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) started June 20 in Kigali, with the main high-level meetings on June 24 and 25. TheNATO summitwill be held in Madrid from June 29 to 30.

However, Ardern is only attending the NATO summit. She issendingher foreign minister, Nanaia Mahuta, to attend the Commonwealth meeting in her place.

Ardern is hardly alone with her decision to stay away from CHOGM so far,only 35of 54 Commonwealth leaders have sent an RSVP. New Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will be among theabsentees Deputy Prime Minister (and Defense Minister) Richard Marles will go instead.

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This is despite the fact that this years CHOGM is being held during the Queens Platinum Jubilee year and just over a month before the Commonwealth Games the groupings sporting flagship. The summit will also be the first CHOGM since 2018, the first CHOGM in Africa since 2007, and the first to be hosted by a new Commonwealth member Rwanda was never a British colony, but voluntarilyjoinedthe Commonwealth in 2009.

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Indeed, Rwandas hosting of the summit this year is not without controversy. Freedom House, a U.S.-based think tank,callsthe country not free, with a ranking of just 22 points out of 100 placing it firmly in the bottom third of its global rankings, two places ahead of Russia.

Freedom House says the Rwandan regime led by authoritarian President Paul Kagame undertakespervasive surveillance, intimidation, torture, and renditions or suspected assassinations of exiled dissidents.

This years CHOGM also threatens to be overshadowed by a U.K. plan to deport asylum-seekers to Rwanda. Prince Charles, who reportedlycalledthe deal appalling, will be representing the Queen at the summit in Kigali.

Despite these two red flags, prominent human rights organizations are not calling for a boycott of the event. Rather, they want Commonwealth leaders to draw attention to the problems. Human Rights Watch, for instance, hasaskedleaders to voice their grave concern to the [Rwandan] government on its human rights record. And, in reference to the Rwanda-U.K. asylum-seeker deal, Amnesty InternationalwantsCommonwealth members to seize the opportunity in Kigali to denounce this inhumane arrangement.

Arderns no-show at CHOGM is probably driven partly by domestic political considerations and timing. This Fridays inaugural Matariki public holiday, which marks the Maori New Year, was a key election campaign pledge by Arderns Labor Party in 2020 and the prime minister is scheduled to attend a pre-dawnceremonyon the day, June 24.

Outside of the Commonwealth Games, the Commonwealth has a low profile, but it has a lot going for it. Few intergovernmental organizations can rival it for size with the Commonwealths collective population reaching2.6 billion, only the likes of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum and the United Nations (U.N.) represent more people.

Moreover, the Commonwealth has a particularstrengthin representing small states, especially island ones 25 of the 54 members are classified as Small Island Developing States. This means the Commonwealth can be a particularly useful forum for discussing climate change and environmental issues. The results have included initiatives such as theCommonwealth Litter Program, which has made real differences to countries such as Vanuatu in fighting plastic pollution.

The Commonwealth is more than just a talk shop, but the disparate nature of its membership is a major challenge. The Commonwealth includes wealthy, democratic countries such as New Zealand, Australia, Canada, and the U.K. but also poor, authoritarian ones such as Cameroon, Rwanda, and Uganda. In between, there are also some rich authoritarian members (such as Brunei) and less well-off democracies (such as India)

Of course, there is still great value in an organization that brings opposing sides together for a robust exchange of views. The new geopolitical fault line between the Global South and North over Ukraine is a case in point. While Western countries including New Zealand have provided strong support to Ukraine, most non-Western countries have not followed suit.

It would do Ardern good to listen to the rationale that countries such as South Africa and Mozambique might have for not falling in line with the Western position. Countries perhaps learn best when they are not just surrounded by their like-minded friends.

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However, in the new Cold War, ideology is back with a vengeance and many countries are drifting away from pragmatic, inclusive groupings towards more ideologically-driven ones. For Australia, this means countering Chinese influence with the reinvigorated Quad arrangement (with India, Japan, and the US) and AUKUS (with the United Kingdom and the United States); for New Zealand, the Pacific Islands Forum and bilateral meetings with Australia and the United States have taken on greater significance.

All of this explains why Ardern has accepted an invitation to attend NATOs Madrid Summit next week. Jens Stoltenberg, the alliances secretary general, has recently been at pains tohighlightthe invitation to the blocs Asia Pacific partners Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea. The reason is obvious on June 16, Stoltenberg specificallymentionedChina as one of the priorities for the meeting, which will set out a new Strategic Concept, effectively a blueprint for the future of NATO.

And while NATOs main focus will remain on security in Europe, last years summit in Brussels held well before Russias invasion of Ukraine was noteworthy for making China its main priority. The summitscommuniquemade NATOs position crystal-clear: Chinas stated ambitions and assertive behavior present systemic challenges to the rules-based international order and to areas relevant to Alliance security.

Arderns invitation to attend the NATOs 2022 Madrid Summit is also something of a reward for aligning New Zealands foreign policy more closely with NATO and the West generally over the past few months. After all, Ardern has overhauled New Zealands foreign policy by introducing sanctions against Russia and sending military equipment and weapons to Ukraine and by making a symbolic contribution of New Zealand troops to Europe to assist with the war effort.

But as Stoltenberg likes tosay, security does not come for free and the meeting will undoubtedly also serve as an opportunity to put pressure on New Zealand to provide even more assistance. The NATO secretary general recentlypointed outthat there have been seven consecutive years of rising defense investment across Europe and Canada. New Zealands military spending shows a remarkably similar trajectory, withspendingnow at the 1.5 percent of GDP level up from 1.1 percent in 2015, although still well below NATOs target of 2 percent.

Albanese is also travelling to Madrid and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has alreadyinvitedthe Australian prime minister to visit Kyiv. Zelenskyy will also be aguestof honor at the NATO summit.

If he accepts, Albanese would be following in the footsteps of many other NATO country leaders who have travelled to Ukraine in recent weeks, including the U.K.s Boris Johnson, Frances Emmanuel Macron, and Germanys Olaf Scholz.

And given the focus on Western unity and solidarity in recent months, theres every chance Jacinda Ardern would travel together with Albanese on any European side-trip to Ukraine, on a joint ANZAC solidarity mission.

Ardern is backing NATO over CHOGM. She might be choosing Kyiv over Kigali.

This article was originallypublished by the Democracy Project,which aims to enhance New Zealand democracy and public life by promoting critical thinking, analysis, debate, and engagement on politics and society.

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Tale of 2 Summits: Why Jacinda Ardern Said No to the Commonwealth, But Yes to NATO - The Diplomat