Polls diverge on voter direction as left and right blocs neck and neck – Stuff

ROBERT KITCHIN/Stuff

Christopher Luxon and Andrew Bayly answer questions from reporters as they make their way into the House.

Two major political polls continue to diverge with a new poll putting Labour and National neck and neck, and with both Jacinda Ardern and Christopher Luxon boosting their personal approval ratings.

In the latest Talbot Mills corporate poll, Labour is still edging out National. Talbot Mills is also the Labour Partys pollster, and these figures are from a poll series it provides to corporate clients.

In the latest Taxpayers Union Curia Research Poll, conducted by Nationals pollster, National is edging out Labour.

The Talbot Mills poll has Labour at 36% edging out National at 35%, the Green Party at 10%, ACT at 8%. NZ First was polling at 3.3% and Te Pti Mori was at 3.1%. It was conducted June 2-10.

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PM Jacinda Ardern speaks to media before Caucus.

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Both major parties were one point lower than in the same poll conducted in May. The Greens and ACT increased their share of the vote by 2% and 1% respectively.

On those numbers, if an election were held today, the result would still likely hinge on Te Pti Mori. If Te Pti Mori holds Rawiri Waititis electorate seat of Waiariki (or wins another), it would be required by Labour and the Greens to form a majority in the House. Were it not to win an electorate, according to the Elections NZ calculator, Labour and the Greens would win 62 seats in the House.

Of the overall share of the vote going to the political left vs the political right, Labour and the Greens are edging out National-ACT with 46% to 44%.

The poll also delivered a boost in the preferred prime minister ratings to both Jacinda Ardern and Christopher Luxon, with Ardern climbing by 2 points to 42% and Luxon climbing by 3 points to 29%. ACT leader David Seymour remained steady on 8%.

The right-direction wrong-direction question, considered a key metric by pollsters and politicians alike, has also remained relatively static since the start of the year, although decreasing slightly. On the Talbot Mills figures, 50% of the country thinks the Government is going in the right direction, compared to 42% that think it is going in the wrong direction.

This gap has closed significantly since before the pandemic. In mid 2019 on the same poll, 61% thought the country was going in the right direction and 29% wrong direction. That grew to 75% to 13% in March 2021 before narrowing significantly after the onset of the Delta outbreak from August 7 last year.

It is the second poll in as many weeks showing a potentially tight election, but with some divergence. In the Taxpayers Union Curia Research Poll conducted by the National Partys pollster National-ACT were potentially winning an election with National on 37.4% and ACT on 9.4%, with Labour on 34.2% and the Greens on 8.3%.

On that poll, National and ACT could govern with 62 seats in the House of Representatives.

On that poll, the right-direction wrong-direction question yielded significantly different answers, with 50% of the those surveyed saying that the country is headed in the wrong direction, compared to 36% saying it is headed in the right direction.

It is understood that methodological difference likely explain the difference in direction.

The polls were both conducted before the new ministerial shake up by Jacinda Ardern last Monday.

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Polls diverge on voter direction as left and right blocs neck and neck - Stuff