India will always be subjected to pinpricks at will by China. Is this the way we want to tame the dragon and let it become a threat from a challenge? The answer obviously is no
The stand-off at Doklamin 2017 has been followed by another and bigger face-off in Eastern Ladakh now, with defence analysts, diplomats and strategic experts predicting the frequency to be almost annual due to the ostensible Chinese annoyance at the rapid rate of development of infrastructure along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) by India which neutralises the asymmetry created by the former till now. While on one hand China was actively trying to build a new image of a responsible global power by its increasing participation in Military Operations Other Than War (MOOTW) like peacekeeping, anti-piracy and humanitarian assistance, on the other it has not shed its belligerent attitude on the border with India due to the potential threat it perceives from India in its quest to become a superpower. It continues to encircle India through its Strings of Pearl and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) doctrine. Despite the desire expressed by Xi Jinping in his early years of presidency to speedily resolve the border dispute with India, China appears to be in no hurry to resolve the boundary dispute and on the contrary is becoming increasingly aggressive to reach areas as claimed by it and marked in our maps as Claim Line.
Chinas national goal is to achieve unification and build a moderately prosperous society by 2050, which would coincide with the centenary year of Communist rule. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has directed its army, the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) to ensure that no internal or external forces should be able to sabotage Chinas economic engine or embarrass its national honour. The current stand-off is a result of this mandate to the PLA because it feels threatened in Aksai Chin, a safe bet for the PLA till now. Both Aksai Chin and Karakoram Pass are Chinas jugular veins.
In response to the offer of US President Trump for a mediation to resolve the stand-off which as per the US assessment is very serious, Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh has informed his US counterpart that, It has been Indias efforts to ensure that the tension does not escalate. It should be resolved through talks at the military and diplomatic levels. We have already developed a mechanism for the same. Negotiations are ongoing between the two countries at the military and diplomatic level.
Going by the statements of the spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry and the Chinese Ambassador to India, Beijing, too, wants to resolve the issue mutually. China, before ordering the standoff, would have war-gamed the Indian responses and worked out an exit strategy to match each Indian response. New Delhis response, though firm and clear, has been traditional and nothing out of the box. Hence, as in the past, if China is keen to resolve the issue, it would buy time, coerce India through psychological operations, deception and threat of a conflict to seek a withdrawal on its terms. But India this time is adamant not to succumb to any type of pressure keeping in mind the prevailing geopolitical environment loaded heavily in its favour. In that case, China may agree to find a face-saving settlement for the time being but the dragon is known for its vengeance and non-forgiving behaviour.
The threat from the dragon may only be deferred for the next campaigning season but not eliminated. Can the present stand-off be Chinas revenge for Doklam with a new recalibrated response and so on? Status quo, therefore, is advantage China.
In the mind of our security policymakers China is not a threat but a challenge. The threat/challenge posed by an adversary is assessed by the policymakers based on their capabilities and intent. The major difference lies in assessing the intent of the adversary. If an adversary has hostile intentions as well as a matching military capability to pursue those intentions it is categorised as a threat. In the assessment of our policymakers, though China possesses a strong military capability, it does not harbour hostile intentions, hence categorised as a challenge. Rightly so, because of the stated national goal as mentioned above. But it does not take time for a militarily strong nation to change its intentions, particularly when the country is known for expansionist and extra-territorial ambitions.
Such a policy is good to justify the ongoing debate of Gun versus Butter in a developing economy and a nation burdened with a yawning gap between the rich and the poor. Fortunately India falls quite low in Chinas current threat assessment and worst-case scenarios. But can India remain happy with status quo or must it plan alternatives to meet growing Chinese aggressiveness and assertiveness?
India can end Chinese transgression if the conflict is taken to Beijings worry spot(s), says Ram Madhav, National General Secretary of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Besieged by a geopolitical situation, which led to a global assault against it, the dragon has decided to be proactive rather than succumb to the global pressure led by the US. It decided to convey a subtle message to the US potential allies through posturing and aggression in what is referred to as signalling in strategic terminology. In doing so, it made the cardinal mistake of opening up too many fronts simultaneously. The South China Sea (SCS), Taiwan, Hong Kong and the Sino-Indian border. Even Australia, a friend of China, joined the global onslaught against it. Japan was also becoming aggressive. China felt that it had been cornered and its move against India may prove costly.
China knows that in the current stand-off, militarily, both the Chinese and the Indian Army are equally strong, with India enjoying shorter lines of communication as compared to China. In case of a conflict, India would be at an advantage and will be able to concentrate more forces than China could deploy. No doubt China would bank on collusion with the Pakistan Army to tie down Indian troops, but even then, it could at best lead to a stalemate. A stalemate would definitely hit Chinas image globally and in other areas of conflict and would be a definite loss of face. China has the knack of springing surprises. Beijing may well begin with a non- contact battle; Information Warfare (IW), Electronic Warfare (EW), cyber-attacks, precision munitions followed by a surgical strike. Will we be able to match the Chinese capabilities in the conflict zone? In the end, if China does not vacate Indian territory, New Delhi should have other options to exercise. In such a scenario, India should have the option to signal the Chinese obliquely (through media, strategic community, diplomatic means and so on) that the conflict may not remain localised in the trans-Himalayan region but may spread to the high seas.
If the Indian policymakers consider Indo-Pacific as a soft underbelly of China, have they done enough to encash this advantage through capacity and capability build-up? The zone of peace and tranquility along the LAC espoused between the two nations in the beginning of this century has slowly been turned into a line of asymmetry through rapid development of infrastructure on its own side by China, thus providing it the capability of rapid deployment. India is fast trying to catch up but lags behind due to many domestic factors.
There was also an attempt to maintain peace through a series of border management and Confidence Building Measures, including the mechanism to resolve the boundary dispute. But China more often than not has been violating these because of its better capability to man the LAC viz a viz India. Any effort by the Indian Army to improve infrastructure on its side is objected to and resisted by the Chinese.
China believes in buying time and wearing out the opponent while building its own strengths. It has been able to achieve the asymmetry on the LAC as well as reorganise and modernise its army. In the process it has begun to be more assertive on its Claim Line by not just patrolling but by camping and digging in those areas. Of late, even in those areas where the claim line and the LAC coincide, China has begun to transgress in order to provide grazing grounds to the locals. It is testing Indias response so that it can enhance its claim line in those areas as well. In a nutshell, the PLA has become very strong in the mountainous sector through which the LAC runs. Our response has been to meet the Chinese threat through enhanced deployment and efforts to improve the infrastructure. In other words we have been trying to pit our strength against the enemys strength. China is happy with status quo and is not keen to resolve border issues. It feels confident of managing conflicts along the LAC. India will always be subjected to pinpricks at will by the dragon. Is this the way we want to tame the dragon and let it become a threat from a challenge? The answer obviously is No.
Strength begets respect and instils fear in potential adversaries. China also respects strength. Indias strength does not lie in the lofty trans-Himalayas but in the high seas. The lion cannot protect himself from traps and the fox cannot defend himself from wolves. One must, therefore, be a fox to recognise traps and a lion to frighten wolves, said Machiavelli, the famous Italian philosopher and writer. In relation to China, India needs to develop both the qualities.
If our strength is on the high seas and not in the mountainous regions, then why are we still obsessed with our frontiers? India must take advantage of its geostrategic location in the Indo-Pacific region and develop the maritime strength to tame the dragon. While doing all this we need to maintain our strategic autonomy.
(The author is a Jammu-based veteran, political commentator, columnist, security and strategic analyst.)
See the original post here:
Status quo is not the answer - Daily Pioneer
- EU votes to ratify landmark High Seas Treaty - Euronews - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Cruise ship industry is booming despite spate of high-seas deaths - New York Post - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- The Indian seafarer deserves better in choppy high seas - The Hindu - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Pharrell Takes To The High Seas For Louis Vuitton Pre-Fall 2024 | Fashion - Clash Magazine - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- When it comes to fighting sea pirates, bones don't lie - Deccan Herald - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- Seabirds spend nearly 40% of their time on high seas, study finds - NIWA - April 29th, 2024 [April 29th, 2024]
- High seas drama: Cruise ship bound for Bahamas is diverted to Portland - Mainebiz - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- African Ports Overwhelmed By Red Sea Reroutings - gCaptain - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Party Pirates: A Hilarious Co-op Adventure on the High Seas - Game Is Hard - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Boat sinks in high seas off Malpe, eight fishermen rescued - Public TV English - December 22nd, 2023 [December 22nd, 2023]
- Arena's Swept Away is a Dark Tale on the High Seas with Music by Grammy Winners The Avett Brothers - The Zebra - December 16th, 2023 [December 16th, 2023]
- Money Memories: Finances on the high seas - Louisville Public Media - December 16th, 2023 [December 16th, 2023]
- The Arctic Sunrise II Does the ISA have 'enforcement jurisdiction' on the High Seas? - EJIL: Talk! - December 16th, 2023 [December 16th, 2023]
- Severe Weather Impacting Multiple Cruise Ships - Cruise Hive - December 16th, 2023 [December 16th, 2023]
- Taking to the high seas for an up-close look at South Fork Wind - theday.com - December 16th, 2023 [December 16th, 2023]
- High Waves and Rough Seas Forecast for Costa Rica Coasts - The Tico Times - December 16th, 2023 [December 16th, 2023]
- Diesel theft on the high seas: When international cargo ships meet fishing boats in the dead of night - The Indian Express - December 16th, 2023 [December 16th, 2023]
- Meet the couple who've been on more than 200 cruises - and love life on the high seas so much they're selling - Daily Mail - December 16th, 2023 [December 16th, 2023]
- Report to Congress on the U.N. Law of the Sea Convention - USNI ... - USNI News - October 10th, 2023 [October 10th, 2023]
- Simplifying Docker Installation on Linux - Linux Journal - October 10th, 2023 [October 10th, 2023]
- Mallory to Present 'Oceans Apart: Global Governance Approaches to ... - University of Arkansas Newswire - October 10th, 2023 [October 10th, 2023]
- NEWS: A NEW 'Moana' Show Is Coming to the Disney Treasure ... - AllEars.Net - October 10th, 2023 [October 10th, 2023]
- Things to do Oct. 13-19 in the Chicago suburbs, Northwest Indiana - Chicago Tribune - October 10th, 2023 [October 10th, 2023]
- Marine "Biomimetics" Could Be the Blue Economy's Next Big Hit - The Maritime Executive - October 10th, 2023 [October 10th, 2023]
- All eyes on France this Saturday evening - Offaly Independent - October 10th, 2023 [October 10th, 2023]
- 80s-themed cruise: A blast to the past with P&O's high-sea adventure - New Zealand Herald - October 10th, 2023 [October 10th, 2023]
- High seas glamour: what its like to cruise the world with Cunard - Executive Traveller - October 10th, 2023 [October 10th, 2023]
- Warfare MMO Foxhole is adding naval combat complete with huge ... - PC Gamer - October 10th, 2023 [October 10th, 2023]
- One Piece Season 2 Cast: Every Character Expected to Appear - The Direct - October 10th, 2023 [October 10th, 2023]
- The future of Portuguese football: the pitch, the pixels, and the promise - PortuGOAL.net - October 10th, 2023 [October 10th, 2023]
- Typhoon Koinu to cause high winds, rough waters in East Sea - VietNamNet - October 10th, 2023 [October 10th, 2023]
- Governing our seas using core principles of sustainability - Mail and Guardian - September 19th, 2023 [September 19th, 2023]
- Marine Medium Speed Engine Oil Market: Navigating the High Seas ... - Digital Journal - September 19th, 2023 [September 19th, 2023]
- Threats on the high seas and the Pak-Saudi partnership - Arab News Pakistan - September 19th, 2023 [September 19th, 2023]
- China Wants to Burn Out Southeast Asian Navies - Foreign Policy - September 19th, 2023 [September 19th, 2023]
- Sea of Thieves Will Have to Face the Reaper Sooner or Later - GameRant - September 19th, 2023 [September 19th, 2023]
- Whine Wednesdays: Pigs On The High Seas Disgusting Behavior ... - LoyaltyLobby - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Carnival Now Looks in Ship Shape for the High Seas - RealMoney - RealMoney - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Why a new UN treaty to safeguard the high seas matters | Mint - Mint - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Navigating Unfairness on the High Seas: Class Action Waiver Clauses - Lexology - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- High-Seas Search for 39 Crewmembers of Capsized Chinese ... - The Maritime Executive - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- The Wager by David Grann review a rollicking and nuanced history of the high seas - The Guardian - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- A musician from Sauk Prairie sees the world on the high seas - WiscNews - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- How to obtain The Major-General minion in Final Fantasy XIV - Fanbyte - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- ShipRocked 2024: Artist Lineup Revealed For Hard Rockin Adventure On The High Seas! - Icon Vs. Icon - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Local playwright's Hollerwood show premiers at West T. Hill - The ... - Interior Journal - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Meth worth several thousand crores seized from high seas by Indian Navy, NCB - The News Minute - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Salute to Sailors: Navy employs technology and training to ready sailors - WHP Harrisburg - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- The Ocean Race Summit Newport urges recognition of the inherent ... - The Ocean Race - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Max Reveals All of the New Titles Coming to It's Platform In May ... - Just Jared Jr. - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Fisheries: agreement reached on sustainable management of ... - Oceans and fisheries - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- United Arab Emirates formally accepts Agreement on Fisheries ... - WTO Latest News - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Murky Tar Balls Reappear on Goa's Golden Beaches | Weather.com - The Weather Channel - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Study: Fishing Subsidies Support Unregulated Distant-Water Fishing - The Maritime Executive - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- The Rings Of Power's Morfydd Clark Hints At 'Quite A Lot Of New ... - Looper - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Chris Armstrong Short Cuts: High Seas Fishing LRB 18 May 2023 - London Review of Books - May 14th, 2023 [May 14th, 2023]
- It's Chaos on the High Seas in New 'The Meg 2' Poster - Collider - May 14th, 2023 [May 14th, 2023]
- From South Dakota to the high seas, the world gets less transparent - Coda Story - May 14th, 2023 [May 14th, 2023]
- Stepping up action - Nature.com - May 14th, 2023 [May 14th, 2023]
- Stricken Shiling tipped to return to Wellington the scene of its ... - Stuff - May 14th, 2023 [May 14th, 2023]
- Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and Secretary ... - The White House - May 14th, 2023 [May 14th, 2023]
- Bangladesh: Dangerous Cyclone Mocha expected to make landfall ... - Save the Children International - May 14th, 2023 [May 14th, 2023]
- Stricken 294-metre Shiling tipped to return to Wellington - the scene ... - Stuff.co.nz - May 14th, 2023 [May 14th, 2023]
- Sneak peek: Inside Royal Caribbean's Icon of the Seas, the largest cruise ship ever - The Points Guy - May 14th, 2023 [May 14th, 2023]
- 'Pirates of the Caribbean: Tides of War' is Celebrating Its 6th ... - Touch Arcade - May 14th, 2023 [May 14th, 2023]
- Is Deck 1 on a Cruise Ship Bad - Pros and Cons - Cruise Hive - May 14th, 2023 [May 14th, 2023]
- US-Iran nuclear struggle is playing out on the high seas - The Telegraph - May 14th, 2023 [May 14th, 2023]
- Muscle Flexing In South China Sea: Why India-ASEAN War Games Send A Strong Signal To Beijing - ABP Live - May 14th, 2023 [May 14th, 2023]
- Everybody Has a Story: Surviving rough ride in a smelly ship - The Columbian - May 14th, 2023 [May 14th, 2023]
- Holiday warning over Majorca party boats loved by Brits as officials vow massive new crackdown... - The US Sun - May 14th, 2023 [May 14th, 2023]
- Dark waters: how the adventure of a lifetime turned to tragedy - The Guardian - May 14th, 2023 [May 14th, 2023]
- Guarding our seas and the blue economy - Philstar.com - May 14th, 2023 [May 14th, 2023]
- Driverless boats, enduring sensors on the special ops maritime menu - Defense News - May 14th, 2023 [May 14th, 2023]
- List Of The Cleanest Cruise Ships In The World (2023) - Cruise Mummy - May 14th, 2023 [May 14th, 2023]
- Sea of Survivors: What if Vampire Survivors and Sea of Thieves had ... - Windows Central - May 14th, 2023 [May 14th, 2023]
- All hands on deck as UN meets to protect high seas - February 18th, 2023 [February 18th, 2023]
- 'High Seas' Season 4 Canceled at Netflix Even After Initial Renewal - January 22nd, 2023 [January 22nd, 2023]
- 'High Seas' Netflix Review: Stream It or Skip It? - Decider - January 22nd, 2023 [January 22nd, 2023]
- What Is High Seas Governance? - National Oceanic and Atmospheric ... - January 22nd, 2023 [January 22nd, 2023]
- Move Over Disney: Carnival Is Grooming on the High Seas - December 23rd, 2022 [December 23rd, 2022]