Daily Archives: June 6, 2020

Tailoring the Socioeconomic Response to COVID-19 in Peacebuilding Contexts – UNDP

Posted: June 6, 2020 at 5:36 pm

As prepared for delivery:Distinguished members of the Peacebuilding Commission,

Excellencies,

Thank you very much for the opportunity to appear virtually before you today.

On behalf of UNDP, allow me to commend the leadership of the Peacebuilding Commission in particular the chairs from Canada, Japan and Colombia for organizing this meeting.

We welcome the opportunity to amplify our recent and recurring engagement with the PBC in our role as the UNs development voice in building sustainable pathways for peacebuilding and tackling violence, conflict and fragility as the largest PBF implementing partner on the ground. And we thank PBSO for the excellent collaboration in facilitating our engagement with the PBC.

You heard from our Administrator two weeks ago on the importance of UN system-wide engagement and strengthening institutions for sustaining peace and peacebuilding in a new post-COVID-19 world.

Today, I will go a bit further to reflect on how we can strengthen the peacebuilding thumbprint in the UN Socioeconomic Framework so that we can help countries recover from this crisis and build back better with more resilience , and security, to future shocks and crisis.

The UN Framework for the Immediate Socioeconomic Response to COVID-19 has five pillars:

Trends and patterns emerging from socioeconomic impact assessments show severe shrinking of fiscal space, policy space, political and governance space, human rights and civic space, erosion of social cohesion; thus pushing SDGs further off-track.

In some countries, economic growth is contracting in double digits; we are seeing sharp increases in prices, decrease in incomes and remittances, and significant job losses, with massive numbers of people at risk of slipping into poverty.

The Human Development Index, for the first time since its inception in 1990, will likely fall. A reduction that would most likely take us back six years .

Countries impacted by fragility, violence and conflict are facing reductions in peacebuilding spaces that will be difficult to reclaim after the end of the crisis.

Overall, there is a serious contraction in critical development and peace gains with the most vulnerable at the greatest risk of being disproportionately impacted by this pandemic.

The impact of COVID-19 is likely to be more severe in fragile and conflict-affected countries, where pre-existing vulnerabilities in health and governance systems, as well as in inter-communal relations, are amplified, thus exacerbating heightened risks to fragility, conflict and violence across communities and borders.

How we collectively respond to the socio-economic impacts of the crisis will have significant consequences on conflict and peace all around the world.

Recognizing the urgency of the crisis, on 23 March, the Secretary-General called for a global ceasefire, urging warring parties to silence their guns to help create conditions for the delivery of aid and to open up space for diplomacy. The response to the SGs appeal has been mostly positive. However, initial gestures of support have not translated into concrete change on the ground. The Security Councils inability to agree on a resolution in support of a global ceasefire has been disappointing.

We need Member States with leverage on conflict parties to use their influence to end these wars. This is especially urgent because COVID-19 has increased risks of violent conflicts, exacerbating existing grievances and inequalities, which were main themes of the protests around the world in 2019.

The social contract between the state and the population is seeing further erosion. In several countries we are already seeing public frustration with the government responses. We also see systematically weak judiciary systems; limiting the protection of human rights and access to justice for many. Potential politicization of governments response could increase political animosity. Weak and uneven government responses could further undermine the social compact and trust.

Despite these challenges, the ceasefire appeal has refocused attention on the urgency to end fighting and the spur stalled peace processes - in order to face a new global common threat.

A few countries are grappling with preparing for elections and the planning for the possibility of delayed or altered elections (with risks of civil unrest and political strife). COVID-19 restrictions could be instrumentalized for electoral purposes and will need to be carefully monitored.

Some governments are restricting freedom of speech and of assembly beyond what is medically necessary, sometimes targeting the opposition. Hate speech and fearmongering against vulnerable populations has proliferated.

Despite challenges of social distancing, local peacebuilders are finding innovative ways to boost opportunities for mutual aid and community-building initiatives using digital solutions to bring communities closer together in sharing life-saving public information on how to survive the pandemic.

Communities led by women and youth are stepping up and forward to strengthen social cohesion between and within local communities as they battle the health pandemic together, building pathways for peace dividends to bloom.

The UN Socioeconomic framework will need to triangulate with existing peace and reconciliation initiatives ongoing in conflict-affected contexts with a strong conflict sensitivity and risk adaptive lens.

Through strong interagency coordination, UNCTs support to countries responses so far have oriented mainly on the immediate crisis response, with a special focus on enhancing institutions, addressing structural deficiencies, supporting most vulnerable people and places; and addressing the harrowing problem of data gaps.

While responding to the pandemic, a few countries with the support of UNCTs(and the UN at large), are already reflecting on the path to recovery. For countries impacted by fragility and violent conflict, our response must be both institutions-based and people-centered. Peacebuilding must be at the heart of a sustainable recovery that (re)builds trust and social cohesion. To bring the dependency cycle to an end , our response must focus on building resilience, institutional capacity and disaster risk reduction while ensuring we remain highly attuned to the conflict drivers and risks as countries recover.

All this will require a robust conflict analysis as part of the socioeconomic recovery assessments.

UNDP is currently reviewing the submissions of 61 countries undertaking socioeconomic impact assessments to ensure that countries are adequately sensitive to the social cohesion and peacebuilding dimensions of COVID-19, including not just the challenges but also the opportunities to secure peace dividends. This is especially relevant for countries impacted by fragility, violence and conflict, or whose transition or peace processes are stalled. Where the peacebuilding lens is weak, UNDP welcomes the opportunity to work with DCO and PBSO to support UNCTs at country/regional levels to strengthen the peacebuilding thumbprint in recovery planning.

Indeed, as the largest recipient and implementer of PBF interventions in nearly to 40 countries, UNDP welcomes the PBFs proactive support to UN Country Teams in Guatemala, Cote dIvoire and Mali to adjust existing projects to address peacebuilding and prevention dimensions of the pandemic.

UNDP would welcome the opportunity to work together with PBSO to help all UNCTs further calibrate existing PBF-funded programming with central funds such as the CERF and the UN COVID-19 Fund to maximize the potential impact on the ground.

UNDP is also working closely with PBSO to accelerate and finalize UN guidance on Conflict Sensitivity, Peacebuilding and Sustaining Peace, along with UNICEF, UNHCR, FAO, UN Habitat, WFP, and UNOPS. The guidance note, which is most relevant and timely in the COVID-19 response, should be ready in the coming days and weeks.

UNDP is also working together with partners like the World Bank in fragile and conflict-affected settings using a whole-of-society and whole-of-government approach to explore how we can leverage our resources, expertise, and capacities to help countries recover and build back better. UNDPs strong partnership with the World Bank includes our support to strengthening responsive, accountable and inclusive core government functions in fragile and crisis-affected settings as a core element of sustaining peace and peacebuilding. We are also reflecting on and adapting how core governance institutions (central and local) can and must adapt to this brave new world -- through improved ways of delivering services -- and through the use of digital technologies.

In the meantime, UNDP and DPPA continue to support our 50+ Peace and Development Advisors to help countries adapt to this new reality and indeed, new way of working in a post-COVID world through our joint UNDP-DPPA Programme on Building National Capacities for Conflict Prevention.

In sum, we can and indeed, we must build back better to regain stability and spur peace and prosperity in a world that is now changed forever. Ensuring a strong social cohesion and peacebuilding lens on how societies and institutions recover from this crisis is at the heart of turning the tide on the greatest reversal of human development into a decisive leap forward.

Let me conclude by emphatically stating that , to build a secure world , we must keep massively investing in Human Security! It is an investment with highest return; on Peace and on Prosperity. It is our strongest insurance policy as well as our passport to a secure future !

Thank you.

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Tailoring the Socioeconomic Response to COVID-19 in Peacebuilding Contexts - UNDP

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Nigeria In The Eyes Of The World On Freedoms – The Nigerian Voice

Posted: at 5:36 pm

In the heat of the current global campaign and protests against systemic and deeply entrenched racism in the United States of America and other parts of the World which came once again to the limelight with the killing by the White police officer Derek Chauvin in Minneapolis, Minnesota of the 46 year old black man Mr. George Floyd, there was a significant and symbolic event that took place in the White house.

This event with global ramifications which tool place was the signing into law of the Executive order on advancing international religious freedoms by President Donald John Trump.

This momentous occasion was drowned unfortunately by the protests over the killing of the black man in the USA and also the inelegant handling of the aftermath of the huge crises that followed by the United States 45th President did not also help matters thereby relegating the important achievement that is embedded in the Executive Order on advancing international religious freedoms by President Donald John Trump.

Although here in Nigeria, we are also confronting the demon of rape and killings of many teenage girls by their rapists all across the Country and the killings of villagers by the armed Islamists and Fulani herdsmen have escalated, the significance of what President Donald John Trump did around June 2nd 2020 in the imposing complex of White House will forever be a source of encouragement.

There is therefore the need to enlighten the people of Nigeria about the existence of this international persuasive tool that can be relied upon to beat back the increasing threats to lives of religious minorities and Christians in the mostly Moslem North West and the terrorism infested North East of Nigeria which has a significant percentage of Christians even though the Moslems are the majority holding political offices of influence in those states with the exception of only a few.

There is little doubt that the spate of killings orchestrated by the armed Islamists and Fulani herdsmen in places such as Benue, Southern Kaduna State, Plateau, Delta, Enugu, Ebonyi are all motivated by the hatred of religious plurality and the fact that the government of President Muhammadu Buhari has in the last five years concentrated the strategic security and defence positions in the hands of only Moslem Northerners and therefore relegating millions of Christians to the background.

This act of lawlessness has constituted not only a constitutional threat but a huge national security threat because in the last five years the majority of all those who watch over our national security are all virtually drawn from one tribal grouping and one religious group being the Moslem religion which in itself violates section 14(3) of the Nigerian constitution but this scheming out of Christians in the scheme of things in the defence sector has led to the high rate of violent attacks against Christian communities by armed Fulani herdsmen and in some instances the attackers after destroying these communities occupied by force the farms of these villagers who are forced to flee to cities to live in the internally displaced people's camps whilst their ancestral lands are occupied by occupying forces aided by armed security forces mostly controlled and commanded by Moslems.

Ironically, the President Muhammadu Buhari who is Fulani Moslem does not give a damn and is in denial of all these atrocious and murderous killings which he dismissed as mere farmers/ herders crises which is totally incorrect and deceptive.

The following words captures the imminent implosion that may result from the heavily one sided defence team set up by President Muhammadu Buhari: "Skewed appointments into the offices of the Federal Government favouring some and frustrating others, shall bring ruin and destruction to this nation."- Col. Abubakar Umar (retd), former military governor of Kaduna State to President Buhari.

It is no secret that in a lot of places in Northern Nigeria, like Katsina, Kano, Zamfara and adjoining States, Christians are not allowed official plots of land by the state governors to build their places of worship just as young Christian girls are too often forced into conversion and marriages to Moslems.

The worst of these invidious and insidious attacks against Christian communities pale into insignificance when you compared these institutional apartheid policies of some Northern State governments to the physical violence that are now unleashed on Christian communities by armed Fulani herdsmen seeking to displace them from their ancestral homes and the government does nothing.

The Special Adviser to Mr President on Media Femi Adeshina was quoted as asking persons under attacks to give up their lands than to be buried underneath..

That incendiary, callous and insensitive comments made on national television by no other person than the Special Adviser on Media and publicity to Mr President is to say the least a confirmation that government is unwilling to take steps to stop these attacks.

Then coupled with the total domination of Moslems controlling all internal security architectures in Nigeria you can then know that Nigerian Christians need to look towards United States of America for the implementation of this Executive order on advancing international religious freedoms by President Donald John Trump.

The Bishop of Sokoto Mathew Hassan Kukah who hails from Southern Kaduna State whereby Christian communities have faced torrents of violent attacks by jihadists terrorists has also lost a Seminarian to the dastardly criminal acts of terror attacks and genocide of Christians in Northern Nigeria.

The following was the speech Bishop Mathew Hassan Kukah read at the burial of the Seminarian Michael killed by armed Fulani herdsmen recently. Bishop Kukah wrote thus: "Nigeria needs to pause for a moment and think. No one more than the President of Nigeria, Major General Muhammadu Buhari who was voted for in 2015 on the grounds of his own promises to rout Boko Haram and place the country on an even keel. In an address at the prestigious Policy Think Tank, Chatham House in London, just before the elections, Major General Buhari told his audience: I as a retired General and a former Head of State have always known about our soldiers. They are capable and they are well trained, patriotic, brave and always ready to do their duty. If am elected President, the world will have no reason to worry about Nigeria. Nigeria will return to its stabilizing role in West Africa. We will pay sufficient attention to the welfare of our soldiers in and out of service. We will develop adequate and modern arms and ammunition. We will improve intelligence gathering and border patrols to choke Boko Harams financial and equipment channels. We will be tough on terrorism and tough on its root causes by initiating a comprehensive economic development and promoting infrastructural developmentwe will always act on time and not allow problems to irresponsibly fester. And I, Muhammadu Buhari, will always lead from the front.

"There is no need to make any further comments on this claim. No one in that hall or anywhere in Nigeria doubted the President who ran his campaign on a tank supposedly full of the fuel of integrity and moral probity. No one could have imagined that in winning the Presidency, General Buhari would bring nepotism and clannishness into the military and the ancillary Security Agencies, that his government would be marked by supremacist and divisive policies that would push our country to the brink. This President has displayed the greatest degree of insensitivity in managing our countrys rich diversity. He has subordinated the larger interests of the country to the hegemonic interests of his co-religionists and clansmen and women. The impression created now is that, to hold a key and strategic position in Nigeria today, it is more important to be a northern Muslim than a Nigerian.

Bishop Mathew Hassan Kukah affirmed: "The persecution of Christians in northern Nigeria is as old as the modern Nigerian state. Their experiences and fears of northern, Islamic domination are documented in the Willinks Commission Report way back in 1956. It was also the reason why they formed a political platform called, the Non-Muslim League. All of us must confess in all honesty that in the years that have passed, the northern Muslim elite has not developed a moral basis for adequate power sharing with their Christian co-regionalists. We deny at our own expense. By denying Christians lands for places of worship across most of the northern states, ignoring the systematic destruction of churches all these years, denying Christians adequate recruitment, representation and promotions in the State civil services, denying their indigenous children scholarships, marrying Christian women or converting Christians while threatening Muslim women and prospective converts with death, they make building a harmonious community impossible. Nation building cannot happen without adequate representation and a deliberate effort at creating for all members a sense, a feeling, of belonging, and freedom to make their contributions. This is the window that the killers of Boko Haram have exploited and turned into a door to death. It is why killing Christians and destroying Christianity is seen as one of their key missions."

From series of internet sources we were reminded that last year over Christmas, Islamic State Beheaded 11 Nigerian Christians. Shocking news reports with in depth analysis from the BBC on the ideology that is intent on creating a genocide in Nigeria.

Relatedly a parliamentary debate held 18 months ago in Great Britain contained the warnings of systematic persecution and horrific executions, abductions, and an unfolding genocide in Nigeria that have been wantonly ignored. These terrible executions in Nigeria will be a first test of how the UKs Foreign Office and Aid programmes will be deployed to provide substance to Boris Johnsons very welcome commitment to end such barbarism., says a foreign affairs observer in Great Britain.

The BBC and other news outlets have provided shocking news reports with in depth analysis from the ideology that is intent on creating a genocide in Nigeria.

The reporter then asserted that perhaps this will finally wake up officials in the UKs Foreign Office and in the Department for International Development who insist on saying that Nigerias killings are overwhelmingly a result of climate change, loss of grazing land and poverty.

These may all be factors but to ignore the role of a ferocious ideology is absurd, self-deceiving, wishful thinking. Climate change didnt behead these innocent people whose only crime was their Christian faith.

The Prime Minister has rightly said that In light of mounting evidence that Christians suffer the most widespread persecution We will use the UKs global reach and programme funding to improve the lives of persecuted people. And that We will do everything possible to champion these freedoms. We are determined to use the tools of British diplomacy in this cause, including our permanent seat on the UN Security Council.

These terrible executions in Nigeria will be a first test of how the UKs Foreign Office and Aid programmes will be deployed to provide substance to Boris Johnsons very welcome commitment.

Whilst Great Britain still contemplates what to do to stop the persecutions of Christians in Nigeria, the United States of America may have come to the rescue of millions of Christians facing extinction under the watch of a President who gave all national defence positions in Nigeria to Moslems and therefore this one sided defence team are looking the other way as armed Fulani herdsmen kill thousands of Christians and not one killer is behind bars in the last five years. Below are the contents of the Executive order.

President Donald John Trump said the Executive order on advancing international religious freedoms by was done by the authority vested in him as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, it is hereby ordered as follows:

Section 1. Policy. (a) Religious freedom, Americas first freedom, is a moral and national security imperative. Religious freedom for all people worldwide is a foreign policy priority of the United States, and the United States will respect and vigorously promote this freedom. As stated in the 2017 National Security Strategy, our Founders understood religious freedom not as a creation of the state, but as a gift of God to every person and a right that is fundamental for the flourishing of our society.

(b) Religious communities and organizations, and other institutions of civil society, are vital partners in United States Government efforts to advance religious freedom around the world. It is the policy of the United States to engage robustly and continually with civil society organizations including those in foreign countries to inform United States Government policies, programs, and activities related to international religious freedom.

Sec. 2. Prioritization of International Religious Freedom. Within 180 days of the date of this order, the Secretary of State (Secretary) shall, in consultation with the Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), develop a plan to prioritize international religious freedom in the planning and implementation of United States foreign policy and in the foreign assistance programs of the Department of State and USAID.

Sec. 3. Foreign Assistance Funding for International Religious Freedom. (a) The Secretary shall, in consultation with the Administrator of USAID, budget at least $50 million per fiscal year for programs that advance international religious freedom, to the extent feasible and permitted by law and subject to the availability of appropriations. Such programs shall include those intended to anticipate, prevent, and respond to attacks against individuals and groups on the basis of their religion, including programs designed to help ensure that such groups can persevere as distinct communities; to promote accountability for the perpetrators of such attacks; to ensure equal rights and legal protections for individuals and groups regardless of belief; to improve the safety and security of houses of worship and public spaces for all faiths; and to protect and preserve the cultural heritages of religious communities.

(b) Executive departments and agencies (agencies) that fund foreign assistance programs shall ensure that faith-based and religious entities, including eligible entities in foreign countries, are not discriminated against on the basis of religious identity or religious belief when competing for Federal funding, to the extent permitted by law.

Sec. 4. Integrating International Religious Freedom into United States Diplomacy. (a) The Secretary shall direct Chiefs of Mission in countries of particular concern, countries on the Special Watch List, countries in which there are entities of particular concern, and any other countries that have engaged in or tolerated violations of religious freedom as noted in the Annual Report on International Religious Freedom required by section 102(b) of the International Religious Freedom Act of 1998 (Public Law 105-292), as amended (the Act), to develop comprehensive action plans to inform and support the efforts of the United States to advance international religious freedom and to encourage the host governments to make progress in eliminating violations of religious freedom.

(b) In meetings with their counterparts in foreign governments, the heads of agencies shall, when appropriate and in coordination with the Secretary, raise concerns about international religious freedom and cases that involve individuals imprisoned because of their religion.

(c) The Secretary shall advocate for United States international religious freedom policy in both bilateral and multilateral fora, when appropriate, and shall direct the Administrator of USAID to do the same.

Sec. 5. Training for Federal Officials. (a) The Secretary shall require all Department of State civil service employees in the Foreign Affairs Series to undertake training modelled on the international religious freedom training described in section 708(a) of the Foreign Service Act of 1980 (Public Law 96-465), as amended by section 103(a)(1) of the Frank R. Wolf International Religious Freedom Act (Public Law 114-281).

(b) Within 90 days of the date of this order, the heads of all agencies that assign personnel to positions overseas shall submit plans to the President, through the Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, detailing how their agencies will incorporate the type of training described in subsection (a) of this section into the training required before the start of overseas assignments for all personnel who are to be stationed abroad, or who will deploy and remain abroad, in one location for 30 days or more.

(c) All Federal employees subject to these requirements shall be required to complete international religious freedom training not less frequently than once every 3 years.

Sec. 6. Economic Tools. (a) The Secretary and the Secretary of the Treasury shall, in consultation with the Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, and through the process described in National Security Presidential Memorandum-4 of April 4, 2017 (Organization of the National Security Council, the Homeland Security Council, and Subcommittees), develop recommendations to prioritize the appropriate use of economic tools to advance international religious freedom in countries of particular concern, countries on the Special Watch List, countries in which there are entities of particular concern, and any other countries that have engaged in or tolerated violations of religious freedom as noted in the report required by section 102(b) of the Act. These economic tools may include, as appropriate and to the extent permitted by law, increasing religious freedom programming, realigning foreign assistance to better reflect country circumstances, or restricting the issuance of visas under section 604(a) of the Act.

(b) The Secretary of the Treasury, in consultation with the Secretary of State, may consider imposing sanctions under Executive Order 13818 of December 20, 2017 (Blocking the Property of Persons Involved in Serious Human Rights Abuse or Corruption), which, among other things, implements the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act (Public Law 114-328).

Sec. 7. Definitions. For purposes of this order:(a) Country of particular concern is defined as provided in section 402(b)(1)(A) of the Act;

(b) Entity of particular concern is defined as provided in section 301 of the Frank R. Wolf International Religious Freedom Act (Public Law 114-281);

(c) Special Watch List is defined as provided in sections 3(15) and 402(b)(1)(A)(iii) of the Act; and

(d) Violations of religious freedom is defined as provided in section 3(16) of the Act.

Sec. 8. General Provisions. (a) Nothing in this order shall be construed to impair or otherwise affect:

(i) the authority granted by law to an executive department or agency, or the head thereof; or

(ii) the functions of the Director of the Office of Management and Budget relating to budgetary, administrative, or legislative proposals.

(b) This order shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations.

(c) This order is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.

HUMAN RIGHTS WRITERS ASSOCIATION OF NIGERIA (HURIWA) hereby charges Christian leaders and stakeholders to compile and document evidences of these mass killings of Christians so these data are sent to the President of the United States of America and the Congress of the United States of America for their immediate actions to ensure that the hundreds of killers who are walking the Nigerian streets freely are arrested, prosecuted and punished for these crimes against humanity.

Emmanuel Onwubiko is the Head of the Human Rights Writers Association of Nigeria and[emailprotected];www.emmanuelonwubikocom;www.thenigerianinsidernews.com;[emailprotected]

Disclaimer: "The views/contents expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of Emmanuel Onwubiko and do not necessarily reflect those of The Nigerian Voice. The Nigerian Voice will not be responsible or liable for any inaccurate or incorrect statements contained in this article."

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Nigeria In The Eyes Of The World On Freedoms - The Nigerian Voice

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OPINION: NIGERIA IN THE EYES OF THE WORLD ON FREEDOMS – thewillnigeria

Posted: at 5:36 pm

In the heat of the current global campaign and protests against systemic and deeply entrenched racism in the United States of America and other parts of the World which came once again to the limelight with the killing by the White police officer Derek Chauvin in Minneapolis, Minnesota of the 46 year old black man Mr. George Floyd, there was a significant and symbolic event that took place in the White house.

This event with global ramifications was the signing into law of the Executive Order on advancing international religious freedoms by President Donald John Trump.

This momentous occasion was drowned unfortunately by the protests over the killing of the black man in the USA and also the inelegant handling of the aftermath of the huge crises that followed by the United States 45th President did not also help matters thereby relegating the important achievement that is embedded in the Executive Order on advancing international religious freedoms by Trump.

Although here in Nigeria, we are also confronting the demon of rape and killings of many teenage girls by their rapists all across the country and the killings of villagers by the armed Islamists and Fulani herdsmen have escalated, the significance of what President Donald John Trump did around June 2nd 2020 in the imposing complex of White House will forever be a source of encouragement.

There is therefore the need to enlighten the people of Nigeria about the existence of this international persuasive tool that can be relied upon to beat back the increasing threats to lives of religious minorities and Christians in the mostly Moslem North West and the terrorism infested North East of Nigeria which has a significant percentage of Christians even though the Moslems are the majority holding political offices of influence in those states with the exception of only a few.

There is little doubt that the spate of killings orchestrated by the armed Islamists and Fulani herdsmen in places such as Benue, Southern Kaduna State, Plateau, Delta, Enugu, Ebonyi are all motivated by the hatred of religious plurality and the fact that the government of President Muhammadu Buhari has in the last five years concentrated the strategic security and defence positions in the hands of only Moslem Northerners and therefore relegating millions of Christians to the background.

This act of lawlessness has constituted not only a constitutional threat but a huge national security threat because in the last five years the majority of all those who watch over our national security are all virtually drawn from one tribal grouping and one religious group being the Moslem religion which in itself violates section 14(3) of the Nigerian constitution but this scheming out of Christians in the scheme of things in the defence sector has led to the high rate of violent attacks against Christian communities by armed Fulani herdsmen and in some instances the attackers after destroying these communities occupied by force the farms of these villagers who are forced to flee to cities to live in the internally displaced peoples camps whilst their ancestral lands are occupied by occupying forces aided by armed security forces mostly controlled and commanded by Moslems.

Ironically, Buhari who is Fulani Moslem does not give a damn and is in denial of all these atrocious and murderous killings which he dismissed as mere farmers/ herders crises which is totally incorrect and deceptive.

The following words captures the imminent implosion that may result from the heavily one sided defence team set up by President Buhari: Skewed appointments into the offices of the Federal Government favouring some and frustrating others, shall bring ruin and destruction to this nation.- Col. Abubakar Umar (retd), former military governor of Kaduna State to President Buhari.

It is no secret that in a lot of places in Northern Nigeria, like Katsina, Kano, Zamfara and adjoining States, Christians are not allowed official plots of land by the state governors to build their places of worship just as young Christian girls are too often forced into conversion and marriages to Moslems.

The worst of these invidious and insidious attacks against Christian communities pale into insignificance when you compared these institutional apartheid policies of some Northern State governments to the physical violence that are now unleashed on Christian communities by armed Fulani herdsmen seeking to displace them from their ancestral homes and the government does nothing.

The Special Adviser to Mr President on Media Femi Adeshina was quoted as asking persons under attacks to give up their lands than to be buried underneath.

That incendiary, callous and insensitive comments made on national television by no other person than the Special Adviser on Media and publicity to Mr President is to say the least a confirmation that government is unwilling to take steps to stop these attacks.

Then coupled with the total domination of Moslems controlling all internal security architectures in Nigeria you can then know that Nigerian Christians need to look towards United States of America for the implementation of this Executive order on advancing international religious freedoms by President Donald John Trump.

The Bishop of Sokoto Mathew Hassan Kukah who hails from Southern Kaduna State whereby Christian communities have faced torrents of violent attacks by jihadists terrorists has also lost a Seminarian to the dastardly criminal acts of terror attacks and genocide of Christians in Northern Nigeria.

The following was the speech Bishop Mathew Hassan Kukah read at the burial of the Seminarian Michael killed by armed Fulani herdsmen recently. Bishop Kukah wrote thus: Nigeria needs to pause for a moment and think. No one more than the President of Nigeria, Major General Muhammadu Buhari who was voted for in 2015 on the grounds of his own promises to rout Boko Haram and place the country on an even keel. In an address at the prestigious Policy Think Tank, Chatham House in London, just before the elections, Major General Buhari told his audience: I as a retired General and a former Head of State have always known about our soldiers. They are capable and they are well trained, patriotic, brave and always ready to do their duty. If am elected President, the world will have no reason to worry about Nigeria. Nigeria will return to its stabilizing role in West Africa. We will pay sufficient attention to the welfare of our soldiers in and out of service. We will develop adequate and modern arms and ammunition. We will improve intelligence gathering and border patrols to choke Boko Harams financial and equipment channels. We will be tough on terrorism and tough on its root causes by initiating a comprehensive economic development and promoting infrastructural developmentwe will always act on time and not allow problems to irresponsibly fester. And I, Muhammadu Buhari, will always lead from the front.

There is no need to make any further comments on this claim. No one in that hall or anywhere in Nigeria doubted the President who ran his campaign on a tank supposedly full of the fuel of integrity and moral probity. No one could have imagined that in winning the Presidency, General Buhari would bring nepotism and clannishness into the military and the ancillary Security Agencies, that his government would be marked by supremacist and divisive policies that would push our country to the brink. This President has displayed the greatest degree of insensitivity in managing our countrys rich diversity. He has subordinated the larger interests of the country to the hegemonic interests of his co-religionists and clansmen and women. The impression created now is that, to hold a key and strategic position in Nigeria today, it is more important to be a northern Muslim than a Nigerian.

Bishop Mathew Hassan Kukah affirmed: The persecution of Christians in northern Nigeria is as old as the modern Nigerian state. Their experiences and fears of northern, Islamic domination are documented in the Willinks Commission Report way back in 1956. It was also the reason why they formed a political platform called, the Non-Muslim League. All of us must confess in all honesty that in the years that have passed, the northern Muslim elite has not developed a moral basis for adequate power sharing with their Christian co-regionalists. We deny at our own expense. By denying Christians lands for places of worship across most of the northern states, ignoring the systematic destruction of churches all these years, denying Christians adequate recruitment, representation and promotions in the State civil services, denying their indigenous children scholarships, marrying Christian women or converting Christians while threatening Muslim women and prospective converts with death, they make building a harmonious community impossible. Nation building cannot happen without adequate representation and a deliberate effort at creating for all members a sense, a feeling, of belonging, and freedom to make their contributions. This is the window that the killers of Boko Haram have exploited and turned into a door to death. It is why killing Christians and destroying Christianity is seen as one of their key missions.

From series of internet sources we were reminded that last year over Christmas, Islamic State Beheaded 11 Nigerian Christians. Shocking news reports with in depth analysis from the BBC on the ideology that is intent on creating a genocide in Nigeria.

Relatedly a parliamentary debate held 18 months ago in Great Britain contained the warnings of systematic persecution and horrific executions, abductions, and an unfolding genocide in Nigeria that have been wantonly ignored. These terrible executions in Nigeria will be a first test of how the UKs Foreign Office and Aid programmes will be deployed to provide substance to Boris Johnsons very welcome commitment to end such barbarism., says a foreign affairs observer in Great Britain.

The BBC and other news outlets have provided shocking news reports with in depth analysis from the ideology that is intent on creating a genocide in Nigeria.

The reporter then asserted that perhaps this will finally wake up officials in the UKs Foreign Office and in the Department for International Development who insist on saying that Nigerias killings are overwhelmingly a result of climate change, loss of grazing land and poverty.

These may all be factors but to ignore the role of a ferocious ideology is absurd, self-deceiving, wishful thinking. Climate change didnt behead these innocent people whose only crime was their Christian faith.

The Prime Minister has rightly said that In light of mounting evidence that Christians suffer the most widespread persecution We will use the UKs global reach and programme funding to improve the lives of persecuted people. And that We will do everything possible to champion these freedoms. We are determined to use the tools of British diplomacy in this cause, including our permanent seat on the UN Security Council.

These terrible executions in Nigeria will be a first test of how the UKs Foreign Office and Aid programmes will be deployed to provide substance to Boris Johnsons very welcome commitment.

Whilst Great Britain still contemplates what to do to stop the persecutions of Christians in Nigeria, the United States of America may have come to the rescue of millions of Christians facing extinction under the watch of a President who gave all national defence positions in Nigeria to Moslems and therefore this one sided defence team are looking the other way as armed Fulani herdsmen kill thousands of Christians and not one killer is behind bars in the last five years. Below are the contents of the Executive order.

President Donald John Trump said the Executive order on advancing international religious freedoms by was done by the authority vested in him as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, it is hereby ordered as follows:

Section 1. Policy. (a) Religious freedom, Americas first freedom, is a moral and national security imperative. Religious freedom for all people worldwide is a foreign policy priority of the United States, and the United States will respect and vigorously promote this freedom. As stated in the 2017 National Security Strategy, our Founders understood religious freedom not as a creation of the state, but as a gift of God to every person and a right that is fundamental for the flourishing of our society.

(b) Religious communities and organizations, and other institutions of civil society, are vital partners in United States Government efforts to advance religious freedom around the world. It is the policy of the United States to engage robustly and continually with civil society organizations including those in foreign countries to inform United States Government policies, programs, and activities related to international religious freedom.

Sec. 2. Prioritization of International Religious Freedom. Within 180 days of the date of this order, the Secretary of State (Secretary) shall, in consultation with the Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), develop a plan to prioritize international religious freedom in the planning and implementation of United States foreign policy and in the foreign assistance programs of the Department of State and USAID.

Sec. 3. Foreign Assistance Funding for International Religious Freedom. (a) The Secretary shall, in consultation with the Administrator of USAID, budget at least $50 million per fiscal year for programs that advance international religious freedom, to the extent feasible and permitted by law and subject to the availability of appropriations. Such programs shall include those intended to anticipate, prevent, and respond to attacks against individuals and groups on the basis of their religion, including programs designed to help ensure that such groups can persevere as distinct communities; to promote accountability for the perpetrators of such attacks; to ensure equal rights and legal protections for individuals and groups regardless of belief; to improve the safety and security of houses of worship and public spaces for all faiths; and to protect and preserve the cultural heritages of religious communities.

(b) Executive departments and agencies (agencies) that fund foreign assistance programs shall ensure that faith-based and religious entities, including eligible entities in foreign countries, are not discriminated against on the basis of religious identity or religious belief when competing for Federal funding, to the extent permitted by law.

Sec. 4. Integrating International Religious Freedom into United States Diplomacy. (a) The Secretary shall direct Chiefs of Mission in countries of particular concern, countries on the Special Watch List, countries in which there are entities of particular concern, and any other countries that have engaged in or tolerated violations of religious freedom as noted in the Annual Report on International Religious Freedom required by section 102(b) of the International Religious Freedom Act of 1998 (Public Law 105-292), as amended (the Act), to develop comprehensive action plans to inform and support the efforts of the United States to advance international religious freedom and to encourage the host governments to make progress in eliminating violations of religious freedom.(b) In meetings with their counterparts in foreign governments, the heads of agencies shall, when appropriate and in coordination with the Secretary, raise concerns about international religious freedom and cases that involve individuals imprisoned because of their religion.

(c) The Secretary shall advocate for United States international religious freedom policy in both bilateral and multilateral fora, when appropriate, and shall direct the Administrator of USAID to do the same.

Sec. 5. Training for Federal Officials. (a) The Secretary shall require all Department of State civil service employees in the Foreign Affairs Series to undertake training modelled on the international religious freedom training described in section 708(a) of the Foreign Service Act of 1980 (Public Law 96-465), as amended by section 103(a)(1) of the Frank R. Wolf International Religious Freedom Act (Public Law 114-281).

(b) Within 90 days of the date of this order, the heads of all agencies that assign personnel to positions overseas shall submit plans to the President, through the Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, detailing how their agencies will incorporate the type of training described in subsection (a) of this section into the training required before the start of overseas assignments for all personnel who are to be stationed abroad, or who will deploy and remain abroad, in one location for 30 days or more.(c) All Federal employees subject to these requirements shall be required to complete international religious freedom training not less frequently than once every 3 years.

Sec. 6. Economic Tools. (a) The Secretary and the Secretary of the Treasury shall, in consultation with the Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, and through the process described in National Security Presidential Memorandum-4 of April 4, 2017 (Organization of the National Security Council, the Homeland Security Council, and Subcommittees), develop recommendations to prioritize the appropriate use of economic tools to advance international religious freedom in countries of particular concern, countries on the Special Watch List, countries in which there are entities of particular concern, and any other countries that have engaged in or tolerated violations of religious freedom as noted in the report required by section 102(b) of the Act. These economic tools may include, as appropriate and to the extent permitted by law, increasing religious freedom programming, realigning foreign assistance to better reflect country circumstances, or restricting the issuance of visas under section 604(a) of the Act.

(b) The Secretary of the Treasury, in consultation with the Secretary of State, may consider imposing sanctions under Executive Order 13818 of December 20, 2017 (Blocking the Property of Persons Involved in Serious Human Rights Abuse or Corruption), which, among other things, implements the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act (Public Law 114-328).

Sec. 7. Definitions. For purposes of this order:(a) Country of particular concern is defined as provided in section 402(b)(1)(A) of the Act;(b) Entity of particular concern is defined as provided in section 301 of the Frank R. Wolf International Religious Freedom Act (Public Law 114-281);(c) Special Watch List is defined as provided in sections 3(15) and 402(b)(1)(A)(iii) of the Act; and(d) Violations of religious freedom is defined as provided in section 3(16) of the Act.Sec. 8. General Provisions. (a) Nothing in this order shall be construed to impair or otherwise affect:(i) The authority granted by law to an executive department or agency, or the head thereof; or(ii) The functions of the Director of the Office of Management and Budget relating to budgetary, administrative, or legislative proposals.(b) This order shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations.(c) This order is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.

HUMAN RIGHTS WRITERS ASSOCIATION OF NIGERIA (HURIWA) hereby charges Christian leaders and stakeholders to compile and document evidences of these mass killings of Christians so these data are sent to the President of the United States of America and the Congress of the United States of America for their immediate actions to ensure that the hundreds of killers who are walking the Nigerian streets freely are arrested, prosecuted and punished for these crimes against humanity.

*** Emmanuel Onwubiko is the Head of the Human Rights Writers Association of Nigeria.

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Why Indians Angered by the Racism and Police Brutality in the US Dont Care About the Same Issues in Their Own Country – VICE

Posted: at 5:35 pm

Over the weekend, social media feeds in India were flooded with illustrated quotes of Desmond Tutu that declared If you are neutral in situations of injustice, you have chosen the side of the oppressor, poignant protest signs that declared I cant breathe, and the quintessential hashtag #BlackLivesMatter. The posts expressed solidarity with George Floyd, a Black man who died after a police officer kneeled on his neck for 8 minutes and 46 seconds. The incident has sparked demonstrations against police brutality and racism around the world.

This outpouring of support in India would have ordinarily been touching. Yet many couldn't help but notice that the very voices who now claim to be infuriated by police brutality, systematic oppression and murder on the basis of arbitrary factors like skin colour were the same ones who were blissfully silent when similar human rights violations happened in the country. Many feigned ignorance and apathy when critics pointed out that police forces in India target university students and Dalit rights activists. Others stand in solidarity with an American-born movement against oppression, while choosing to overlook the all too frequent religion-based violence and riots that have taken place in India.

Enraged citizens were quick to call out this selective outrage and question the influencers and celebrities expressing outrage as being performative woke and hypocritical. These accusations were then immediately dismissed with: You cant tell me what to care about.

But the incident begs the question: Why dont Indians care about the same struggles so many of their countrymen are facing? Why do Indians, who are infuriated with racism and police brutality in the U.S., not feel that kind of rage for the same issues in their own country?

We have a deep-seated history of slavery, thousands of years of caste-based differentiation and several decades of violent Hindu-Muslim rivalry that arent easy to unlearn, said Vikram Patel, a psychiatrist, social researcher and founder of Sangath, an organisation dedicated to child development and mental health in low-resource settings. Theres still a lot of social engineering required to make our society more inclusive of its diversity. This has a direct impact on childrens views while growing up when their families, which might be biased (by historical context that is casteist or anti-Muslim), impose unacceptable and inhumane prejudice on impressionable minds.

Patel points out that like most societies that have a colonial history, Indians tend to have this fascination with the West and model their societies around it, without taking into account cultural differences. A simple example of this is with lockdowns. We saw many countries in the West doing it, so we decided to adapt that model without implementing social security systems and giving cash payments to the struggling sections of society, or analysing how dependent our people are on public transportation, said Patel.

Patel pointed out an interesting dichotomy between this skewed way of viewing the West. Indians like to blame Western values for acts of cruelty, but when someone in the U.S. questions problematic behaviour in India, citizens become nationalistic and try to justify their actions, instead of realising that they must fix the problems in their homes before trying to do so globally.

Many experts also highlight the power of mainstream media in influencing such movements, and how they sometimes set narratives that work more like propaganda.

Mainstream media, including Bollywood and pop culture, mostly glorifies upper-caste Hindu culture, and rarely explores themes of violence against Muslims or casteism, said Paras Sharma, a psychologist, social development expert and co-founder and director of mental health organisation The Alternative Story.

Sharma cited what many other critics do: that the portrayal of police in films and popular shows like Crime Patrol or Savdhaan India (which dramatise real-life crime cases) also tends to glorify cops as the ultimate good guys, making it harder for people to understand the severity of living in a police state. Meanwhile, theres an invisibilisation of caste and religion, sometimes even a vilification propagated by biased news channels. This creates a negative image of left-oriented organisations and student protests, he said.

He explained that biased media portrayals can then convert images of injustice into separatist movements that target the oppressed and make them out to be terrorists. The problem is that this popular media sets the narrative that is replicated and regurgitated by people on platforms like Twitter and WhatsApp. He also stressed how this can spill over into elections of public officials, and eliminate any options that dont take populist or extremist stands that reflect sentiments of the majority.

Sharma said that the populist narrative then affects the topics that celebrities speak up about. Its much easier for a celebrity to speak out against white supremacy than against Hindu supremacy, because you cant call out the very people your career and social status is dependent on, he said. He gave the examples of Indian actors like Aamir Khan, Shah Rukh Khan and Deepika Padukone having had to face social boycotts after speaking out on sensitive topics that criticised the right-wing.

"Its not hypocrisy as much as it is marketing. They (celebrities who were silent but are now speaking up in solidarity with the Black Lives Matters movement) are looking at who constitutes the majority or who has the zeitgeist right now. Currently, the zeitgeist around the world is anti-government and anti-police, so they are swayed by it because it sells their personal brand.

While celebrities actions can be attributed to a desire for public validation, a different kind of attitude defines the actions of ordinary citizens who display the same apathy. Sharma believes that a layperson who has raised their voice against racism and police brutality in the U.S. but has stayed silent when the same issues have permeated Indian society is probably driven by a kind of superiority complex.

He explained how this creates a chasm defined by the ingroup, which is the social group these people relate to, and an outgroup, which is a group they arent a part of. In this case, the American government is viewed as an outgroup, and the same actions are criticised to make people feel like they are better off in their own country. It helps us reduce some of the dissonance we feel about some of our actions, said Sharma.

According to him, citizens who want to justify why they have voted for an ineffective government or the problematic things their ministers say, will do so by criticising another government. Were basically saying, look, we might have it bad but you have it worse. And when we criticise somebody who is not from our cultural context, we are essentially saying the ingroup is better than the outgroup.

Indeed, there's value in questioning the origins of anti-Blackness, as it can lead to the application of those politics to Indian narratives. "For South Asians specifically, challenging anti-Blackness cannot be discussed without examining casteism in our communities," said Sharmin Hossain, the political director at Equality Labs.

"Although caste and race are distinct and separate social categories, caste has divided South Asian society into units of graded inequality. By examining caste privilege, South Asians can interrogate the underlying logic of anti-Blackness, and find new language to raise the consciousness of our communities," Hossain said.

"We also have to reframe the conversation around police brutality and take it beyond anti-Blackness. The Movement for Black Lives struggle is not only about the end to police brutality, it is a multi-faceted strategy to change our communities - from divesting in police and military, to safer communities nourished with resources and social safety nets.

Follow Shamani Joshi on Instagram.

This article originally appeared on VICE IN.

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Fixing What’s Broken: If We Build a Moral Economy, the Future Will Be Better – Singularity Hub

Posted: at 5:35 pm

Throughout the coronavirus pandemic, weve been eagerly awaiting a return to normal. We want to be able to go out again, see our friends, and be in public places without feeling like were risking our health or that of others.

Now that Covid-19 case counts have gone down and restrictions are starting to lift, it seems were at last on the path back to some semblance of normalcy. But as recent events have shown, the status quo before the pandemic wasnt all that great for large swathes of the population, both in the US and around the world.

Do we really want to get back to normal, or should we be focusing on building a more just and inclusive future?

Last week at Singularity Universitys digital summit on the future of work, SU chair of Future Studies Paul Saffo and chair for the Future of Work Gary Bolles discussed a piece of the old normal they think needs to change: the structure of the economy.

Over the last few decades, weve increasingly distanced ourselves from the values our ancestors built into post-World War II society, and it appears that in many ways, were worse off for it. Rather than sticking to the winner-take-all capitalism thats gotten us where we are, Bolles and Saffo believe, the future will be far more promisingfor everyoneif we re-orient towards a moral economy.

A simple definition of a moral economy is an economy thats based on justice and fairness.

The term, Saffo said, is almost two centuries old. James C. Scott was one of the preeminent thinkers in this area, and he framed the concept of a moral economy like this: imagine youre a farmer in a small agrarian village. Youve had a bad year, but your neighbor is also a farmer and hes had a good year. So you go to your neighbor and he freely shares some of his surplus with you, not because hes just being nice, but rather because next year he may be the one who needs help, and you can be the one to help him then.

Essentially, a moral economy respects interdependence and relationships rather than leaving everyone to fend for his or herself with no regard for how others are faring. The other standout expert on this topic is E.P. Thompson, and he wrote about the moral economy in England before and after the Industrial Revolution. Moral contracts existed between landlord and peasants before the Industrial Revolution; but the rise of free-market thinking did away with putting these moral concepts first, and the long-standing contracts between people and groups were broken.

The important thing about the concept of a moral economy today is that whenever theres a big idea in the zeitgeist, we usually ask ourselves the wrong question, Saffo said. Back in 2009 everyone was asking will robots steal our jobs?, but then people realized that that was the wrong question, and we should be thinking about the future of work. Now that weve shifted to focusing on that topic, the way to tie in the myriad issues around itincluding the environment, equity, diversity, and technologyis to discuss the future of work within the context of a moral economy.

When looking at big disruptions to the economy, we tend to focus on the technologies that brought about massive change; the steam engine, nitrogen-based fertilizer, the incandescent light bulb, etc.but its equally significant to examine the laws and norms that went into place during these historical shifts.

In England before the Industrial Revolution, Bolles said, there were a lot of small farms, and in between the farms there was a common space where the farmers are allowed to graze their animals. When the Industrial Revolution and mass production techniques came along, the farms started to get bigger, and laws called the Enclosure Acts were created to hand the common areas over to large landholders; they unsurprisingly ended up having the most land and the most money.

A lot of the interconnections of those economies were lost, and they rewarded more bigger faster stronger, and that echoes down to today, Bolles said. Giant tech companies have created platforms, and weve rewarded them by putting more and more content and information and data on their platforms. The big get bigger, which ultimately leads to the small being forced out.

Today, we should ask ourselves what the new Enclosure Acts are, said Saffo. There are always forces trying to do enclosures, and moral economies dont appear by accident. People fight for them.

After the Great Depression, American workers unionized and organized to demand a moral economy. World War II prompted the creation of one that lasted for several decades, until, Saffo said, the early 1980s, when laws were passed that began systematically dismantling it. The Gini coefficient measures how far a countrys income distribution deviates from being perfectly equal, and in the US this number has steadily risen since the 1980s. In 2015, the top 1 percent of earners in the US averaged 40 times more income than the bottom 90 percent.

In the 1980s everybody took the order that had been created in the previous decades so much for granted that they didnt fight to preserve it, Saffo said. In my opinion, were at the breaking point today.

The world has changed dramatically since the 1980s (not to mention since January). Technological advancement has brought abundant food, resources, and income to many more people than ever before, but its also made us value independence (that is, a movement towards an individualistic society that de-emphasizes depending on and helping others) at the expense of interdependence, and now were seeing the fallout.

Were in the middle of this independence bubble, and independence has become a very dangerous myth, Saffo said. Granted, in a small agrarian community its easier to make a moral economy work, because people see the consequences of their actions and get feedback from other parties. The massive global economy were living in, on the other hand, is a society of strangers, with little to no feedback and consequences that are invisibleuntil theyre not.

How, then, can we use technology to foster social solidarity and interdependence? How do we encourage the balancing of economies to benefit the most people possible? How would the world look different if it was built on these precepts?

Digital technology has done its share of harm to democracy and to social cohesionhow do we turn it around and harness it for good? Its not going to come down from the top, Saffo said. Its going to have to come up from the bottom, with individual communities leading by example.

Our current economic structure and reward system doesnt take into account the most important factors for our collective well-being, like justice, equality, the environment, and our physical and mental health. We need to trade in our defunct system for one that pulls these things into the equation in a meaningful way.

As sci-fi writer William Gibson famously said, The future is already here; its just not evenly distributed. Building a moral economy may be the first step towards righting that imbalance.

Image Credit: joko narimo from Pixabay

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In Exciting Times, Echoes of Sally Rooney, but With a Queer Twist – The New York Times

Posted: at 5:35 pm

EXCITING TIMES By Naoise Dolan

Already drawing comparisons to Sally Rooneys work, Exciting Times, by Naoise Dolan, has many of the familiar tropes of the millennial novel covered: Jealousy and obsession, love and late capitalism, sex and the internet all come whirling together in a wry and bracing tale of class and privilege.

The protagonist, Ava, is an intelligent, 22-year-old loner who moves from her native Dublin to Hong Kong to teach English, with no discernible qualifications other than being white. Not long after her arrival, she finds herself on a lunch date with Julian, an Oxford-educated British banker in his late 20s. She hopes hell be as impressed by her youth and attractiveness as she is by his salary, which she has Googled, thoroughly. I wasnt good at most things but I was good at men, Ava confides in the reader, and Julian was the richest man Id ever been good at.

Soon they are sleeping together, and Ava moves into Julians flat. She is highly attuned both to the power dynamics at play (do you want me to depend on you? she asks him) and to her moral predicament, as she adds up how much money she is saving on rent, as well as on the clothes and meals Julian pays for with the funds he doesnt know what to do with.

Ava admires how Julian handles his advantages, how he could calmly note where he benefited from unfairness not self-indulgently like I often did, but factually. As their undefined relationship goes on, she begins to develop her own brand of romantic longing, which begins with a desire for his life of privilege. I loved him potentially, she thinks. That, or I wanted to be him.

Ava is hyper-verbal and exacting, and Dolans writing excels when Ava turns her analytical eye on the intersections between English syntax, zeitgeist technology and interpersonal relationships: Because I lacked warmth, I was mainly assigned grammar classes, where children not liking you was a positive performance indicator. I found this an invigorating respite from how people usually assessed women.

By contrast, Avas written correspondences social media posts and emails she labors over, analyzes, doesnt send or sends by accident become increasingly vulnerable in their disclosures as the book moves along. They form a digital counterbalance to Avas aloof and guarded in-person presence, and through this duality Dolan captures perfectly the nauseating insecurity of growing up today.

Yet like many millennials, Ava exhausts the bulk of her mental energy on her bank account. Youre not easily pleased with how other people put sentences together, Julian accuses, but when it comes to money, youve got no taste. And no squeamishness about asking for it, discussing it, hoarding it. Ava doesnt flinch. The novel is shot through with moments of such startling self-awareness as this.

While Julian is back in London for six months, Ava meets Mei Ling Edith Zhang, a corporate lawyer from a well-off Hong Kong family. Edith has much in common with Julian: an Oxbridge pedigree and a high-powered, high-paying job. I wanted her life, Ava thinks. I worried this might endanger our friendship, but so far it seemed to be facilitating it.

Their friendship eventually moves through phases of awkward flirtation into a romantic affair, taking place mostly in Julians apartment, and in secret, as Edith is not out to her parents. But Julians impending return means Ava must decide not so much between her lovers as between Edith and the expensive flat that she doesnt pay for. Sure, her salary is good compared to the locals, but ending things with Julian would mean shed have to, gasp, live like they do, in coffin homes.

The novel takes place a few years after the 2014 Umbrella Movement, peaceful demonstrations that galvanized Hong Kongs youth, who were demanding open elections, in a renewed spirit of protest. Unfortunately, Dolans superficial evocation of the island is conjured mostly through Instagram latte art geotagged on fashionable streets. The actual experiences of local people her age have no effect whatsoever on Ava, the details of their lives mentioned, by the author, only in passing. Absent the textures of a real city that is sharply divided along generational, ideological and class lines, Dolans novel could have taken place in any other major Asian metropolis. None of the English-speaking characters seek to venture beyond their established social circles, where even brief references to elections or the conditions of domestic workers are dismissed as white savior-ish. They barely notice the Chinese characters on street signs, let alone try to understand them.

Those whove spent time in Hong Kong cant help wondering what its like to be among the Anglophone transplants who work and party there. Are they as insensitive and indifferent as they seem to the foreign city they call home? The answer Exciting Times seems to offer is yes, in this case they are just as shallow and myopic as one would assume. After a local waiter replies to her English greeting in Cantonese, an irritated Edith points out one of Avas blind spots: Youre not noticing because youre white, she says, people see me and assume Im from here. Edith might let Ava off the hook, but why should todays reader do the same?

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This docu on Jeffrey Epstein is a harrowing watchalmost too harrowing, in fact, to stomach – ABS-CBN News

Posted: at 5:35 pm

Culture Movies

Netflixs Jeffrey Epstein: Filthy Rich is about the life of a billionaire and his obscene legacytold in all its ugly detail. By JAM PASCUAL

As soon as you think youve gotten used to all the ways the world can go wrong, the obscenely rich find a new way to stupefy you. This was pretty much how it went down last year when financier Jeffrey Epstein was arrested on federal charges for the sex trafficking of minors, as we around the world watched a web of lies and deception come undone, as the #MeToo movement gained more steam.

Epsteins molestation pyramid scheme (three words which should never be beside each other) was a zeitgeist-defining crisis, its twists and turns faithfully documented. Its hard to imagine anyone being in the dark about the subject, but considering the terrible wealth of problems happening around the world, its feasible that one simply did not give the issue due attention. Jeffrey Epstein: Filthy Rich is a documentary on one of the vilest men of our time, meant for those who perhaps couldnt stomach reading about Epsteins vile exploits while the news cycle was churning the story out.

It is an accomplishment that this documentary is able to do what it does, considering the fact that we know how the story ends. Epstein dies, and a million memes about Epstein not killing himself are born. Its an amusing meme, one whose tone of tin foil hat hysteria matches the absurdity of the events that preceded it and their illuminati proportions. And yet Filthy Rich manages to surprise. It does this deftly, setting up the image that Epstein aims to projecta wealthy, international man of mysterythrough an anecdote of a Vanity Fair profile that, had Epstein and his lawyers not threatened and manipulated the magazine, couldve published testimonies from two of his victims.

And then the documentary spends the rest of its running time tearing it all apart. An island nicknamed Pedophile Island. Underage girls flown in from France. Buying off the FBI. Its good nonfiction, but even the organising of facts and real anecdotes needs good pacing, which Filthy Rich has a lot of.

The four part docu rightfully places its attention first, and for a majority of the series, on the women that Epstein trafficked, making this as much a story of survivorship as it is a story of power. It takes time to unpack the extreme class difference between Epsteins El Brillo Way neighbourhood in Palm Beach, and the nearby low-income neighbourhoods from which many of the girls he exploited came from. Epsteins friends are cut zero slackthe likes of Woody Allen, Harvey Weinstein, Bill Clinton, Prince Andrew are some of the many names dropped to demonstrate Epsteins proximity to power, and the dubious company he kept as a financier. Its a shame that Epsteins main accomplice, Ghislaine Maxwell, could not be reached, but her absence speaks volumes. The blatant flaws of the justice and incarceration system are put on blast. To the credit of Filthy Rich, it makes these effortful attempts to call the conditions that allow Jeffrey Epstein to thrive, a systemic problem.

But the docu is kind of a redundant project. While the documentary is a harrowing, suspenseful watch that gives a Netflix-sized platform to women whose testimonies were ignored for years and not given nearly enough time in court, it is more emotionally taxing than insightful. In a world where there is just so much bedlam happening at any given moment, it is hard to give this film the emotional bandwidth required to stomach its story. Maybe thats the fault of its release date.

Plus, Filthy Rich doesnt really offer new information other than what was bombarded upon us through the news cycles unrelenting reportage. I believe any investigative piece should be able to strike a balance between educational and cinematic. Filthy Rich doesnt do that. It tells us things that we already know, through cinematic beats were familiar with if weve consumed literally any true crime media. Its painful to watchand not always in a good waysurvivors reopen old wounds. That sort of research is always a difficult undertaking, and Im certain director Lisa Bryant handled the stories of her subjects with as much delicacy and care as she could. But the vindication of these women could have been given better treatment in this narrative, instead of having their healing treated as a neat conclusion to what was essentially a true crime drama.

This is a documentary for viewers who wants to educate themselves, need a refresher, or just never got around to reading the articles and think pieces they left as open tabs on their browsers. But even then Filthy Rich couldve stepped it up in that aspect. Part of what makes the story of Epstein so compelling is the tracing of disparate threads to the places of power that impact the world today, and have impacted the world for a long time. Alexander Acosta, who approved a plea deal to basically soften Epsteins sentence from 2007-2008, would eventually come to be nominated Labor Secretary by Donald Trump. Alan Dershowitz, one of Epsteins lawyers, turns out to also be connected with Trump, Harvey Weinstein, and O.J. Simpson.

Here is an investigative piece that couldve used some more thread-tracing, more undone spiderwebsnot just for dramatic effect, but also to drive home the fact that the Epstein issue is a social issue.

You know that thing many documentaries do thats like a supercut of a bunch of news anchors all saying connected things? Imagine this. Clips of the Occupy movement and protestors chanting we are the 99 percent! as they march through Wall Street, the locus of big money and home to many of Epsteins old associates. Reports on the Panama Papers, which Epstein is also connected to. Clips of the FBI doing stuff. More clips: the trials and arrest of Bill Cosby and Harvey Weinsten, the latter a friend of Epstein. The election of Donald Trump, the 2017 Womens March, the Stormy Daniels scandal. From there, zoom out to reveal Epsteins face as a mosaic of screens. Or cut to black then come in with an anecdote by a survivor. This might seem a little hammy, but Filthy Rich already does a lot of work exposing networks of power and the big names therein.

In any case, I can only recommend watching Filthy Rich as much as I recommend reading up on the story, whether its the James Patterson book from which this movie was roughly adapted, or articles from a trusted news outlet. I suppose its just a matter of whichever medium you prefer. Either way, it wont hurt less.

You can watch Jeffrey Epstein: Filthy Rich on Netflix.

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This docu on Jeffrey Epstein is a harrowing watchalmost too harrowing, in fact, to stomach - ABS-CBN News

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3 Questions: Sandy Alexandre on the literary roots of technological innovations – MIT News

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Associate professor of literature Sandy Alexandres research spans late-19th century to present-day black American literature and culture. In 2019, Alexandre was awarded a prestigious Bose Research Grant, which supports her study of the under-explored phenomenon of ideas that first appear in speculative fiction becoming technological and social reality. SHASS Communications spoke to Alexandre recently about her project to illuminate the literary, humanistic sources of many technological innovations and advancements.

Q: Literature as a source for technological innovation is under-explored territory. What directions are you most excited about in your current research? What are some historic examples of tech inspired by literature?

A: In asking participants in my study to read specifically for a work of speculative fiction's imaginary inventions, I am effectively asking them to read with a one-track mind. Needless to say, this approach to teaching literature is not characteristic of my usual or preferred modus operandi. So, besides a very extensive list of imaginary inventions, I'm curious to know what else that very particular way of reading might yield.

Could it help us understand how to factor imaginary inventions into a work of fiction's overall design, meaning, and significance, for example? Why is a particular category of imaginary invention, rather than another one, necessary to the particular story a work of speculative fiction wants to tell?

Overall, I hope that being able to survey speculative fiction's various and sundry imaginary inventionsmore systematicallywill not only illuminate the answers to these questions, but also generate new ones. My sense is that the larger the sample size of imaginary inventions we can collect, the better and more precise will be the kinds of questions we can ask of it. The world needs good question-askers as much as it needs good problem-solvers, and this research project aspires to produce some very good askers.

The World Wide Web is famously said to have been inspired by Arthur C. Clarke's short story Dial F For Frankenstein (1964). Whatever the truth is, I'm not surprised that a writer's process of meticulously crafting creative ways of communicating with readers would inevitably lead to the creation of imaginary inventions that foresee entirely new forms of communication. It's more than a little reasonable to assume that we can trace the lineage of communication platforms and devices back to well-crafted works of the language arts. Literature, its readers, and the inventors who are inspired by it are all a part of STEM history.

Q: Is the influence of literary texts on the development of technology an instance of one way literature functions in culture more broadlyoften as a harbinger, articulating new realities and possibilities? How does this research highlight how literature looks forward both technologically and socially?

A: Absolutely! My research will highlight how literature is inherently an imaginative and inventive enterprise. Putting words together in ways that are oft-thought but never so well-expressedis an exercise in prescience and trendsetting. A writer's constant tweaking and manipulation of words constitute atinkering the kind of tinkering one might associate with the makings of an engineer.

Literature is famously good for synthesizing a zeitgeist and distilling it into a cultural product. That ability, at the macro level, to compress a whole climate into a novel-length or short story-length work is not at all far from what writers do, at the micro level, when they harness their abstract ideas by transforming them into imagined physical objects. And frankly, who best to anticipate the needs of a society than writers who are deeply familiar with and who regularly immerse themselves in the countless narrative and life scenarios made available to them in the works of literature they read?

In other words, the sum of their many reading experiences is, to a great degree, encyclopedic in a way that necessarily makes their knowledge predictive. That such knowledge would endow writers with the ability to dream up inventions that should or could exist in the service of making our lives better and easier strikes me as the most logical progression. Avid readers who constantly encounter plot lines in manifold permutations and who write from that well-read positionality have a distinct advantage certainly over nonreaders in their ability to predict the future, to some extent, by virtue of being well-versed on past and current events.

Q:Why do you think these imagined innovations make the jump from page to the world we live in? Are there some new technologies you can imagine that you'd like to see become reality? What technology in modern speculative literature has the potential to become reality?

A: When these jumps from the page to reality in the world happen, they do so because the imagined innovations are utterly impressive, inspiring, and daring. Their kinetic energy is infectious inspiring inventors and technologists to attempt to reify them in the world. Offered up as plausible and attainable by how they're described (and the very fact that they are describable in the first place), it is no surprise that imaginary inventions would find their match in the ever-curious makers and would-be makers of the world.

These jumps also happen because, for the most part, readers know that speculative fiction writers have honed a knack for foresight. And many readers rely on this quality to become more prescient global citizens in an ever-changing world. Our speculative fiction writers are the unsung prophets among us.

As for new technologies that I can imagine and would like to see in reality well, I would like to see what Ill call intermediation technologies, which could be used, for example, between doctors and patients to create better communication and understanding. Too often, doctors make inaccurate diagnoses based on how patients answer questions, and whether the doctor believes those answers. Intermediation technologies would reconcile the fact that, while patients are, usually, laypersons in the medical field, they are also experts about certain aspects oftheir own bodies.

Say a patient comes in describing a nebulous abdominal pain using vocabulary that does not align with the doctors more specialized terminology and the doctor is not adept at translating the patient's vocabulary into medical terms. For that situation, Id like to see a visually compelling, user-friendly, hand-held digital device that presents a repertoire of diagnostic possibilities that the doctor and patient can consult and discuss together. Think of it as the medical version ofthe Shazam app that identifies music. But even beyond identification, this medical intermediation device would also further better communication, respect, and trust between doctors and patients.

Finally, thinking about imaginative tech with the potential to become reality, the 3D holographic human form that the Star Trek television series popularized is actually becoming reality, albeit still very costly at this stage. The recent transition to digital teaching and learning makes me wonder how much better "virtual" education would be if it was on a holographic platform one that enables more interaction, more eye movement, body language, and sense of presence in other words, more of the kind of holistic learning opportunities we experience in face-to-face environments.

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3 Questions: Sandy Alexandre on the literary roots of technological innovations - MIT News

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Black Lives Matter: Resources and Responses – Creative Review

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The death of George Floyd by police in Minneapolis last week has caused an immediate response of grief and anger, as well as the examination by individuals and organisations across the world about how we respond to such deaths and the racism that they expose in Western society. Across the creative industries urgent questions have been asked about the slow response to calls for diversity and change, and what needs to happen now.

The instinctive initial response by many to Floyds death is to take to the streets and protest. Events are happening around the world, across America but also in London, Paris, Amsterdam and Berlin.

Photographers and filmmakers have been out capturing powerful scenes from the protests across the world:

PROTESTING FROM HOME

Yet during the pandemic, it can be difficult for people to protest physically. Mona Chalabi has been once again demonstrating the power that data can have to get to the heart of the matter in visuals online:

There are numerous petitions that can be signed, including the Justice for George Floyd petition. D&AD has put together a very useful resource list which includes other petitions as well as fundraising endeavours and wider reading. This can be found here.

And gal-dem has published a thoughtful piece on other ways to protest if you cant go out physically due to coronavirus. Protest has the function of agitating the state, though I believe its more moving function is one of collective catharsis, writes Melz. It allows us to come together as a collective and share in the grief and pain that we are all feeling. It gives us a place to channel and externalise the rage and hurt that runs through our veins each day in this white supremacist world. Still, the conflict remains how many more lives may we put at risk by taking to the streets during a pandemic? The piece then lists the many ways that people can channel grief and anger when physical protesting is not an option.

RESPONSES FROM BRANDS

As this New York Times piece points out, brands have begun responding to the cause, if somewhat warily. Theres a general trend toward executives in the C-suite being called out and pressure-tested by consumers who want to know where they stand theres an opportunity to differentiate not just on function, on whats a better mousetrap, but on values, says Americus Reed, a marketing professor at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania in the piece. Its smart theyre taking a stand, hopefully, because its moral, but also because they understand the long-term economic game.

And for brands that borrow heavily from black culture, the topic cannot be ignored, states influencer Jackie Aina in the piece. When it comes to relevant things happening, things you cant ignore like the Black Life Matters movement, police brutality or murders in our community, its crickets, and thats unacceptable, she said. If you are capitalising off of a culture, youre morally obligated to help them.

THE NEED FOR WIDER CHANGE

This moment is seeing a call for wider change across society, but also specifically in the creative industries with artists such as Campbell Addy, and Emmazed founder, Mo Mfinanga, calling for systemic change in how black creatives are treated in the industry.

In Vogue, UK editor Edward Enninful calls for recognition of the importance of cultivating an anti-racist agenda. This is an evolving conversation, writes Enninful, and it requires evolving education. We have to keep educating ourselves and our neighbours, or the atrocities wont stop. I do not condone the violence that is breaking out across America and other cities. I am not condoning the lootings. I support free speech, and the rights of people to protest, though I would caution that people make adequate safety arrangements in the light of the pandemic. I am convinced that we need to fight racism, to convert knowledge into anti-racism. And we need to do it together.

Fashion has a part to play in this, he continues. It occupies a unique place in the zeitgeist, and it has a singular ability to shift mindsets. I implore fashion brands, publications and retailers to employ more people from diverse backgrounds I truly believe this is the only way to effect real change. We need black people ingrained within the infrastructure of the fashion industry, not just on the other side of the camera or appearing on an Instagram feed. People need a seat at the table.

This is a viewpoint echoed in a recent piece in CR by Stormzy collaborator and writer Jude Yawson about racism in the UK. There is a grave and systematic error that pits people against each other, which has become the mainstay of the country, writes Yawson. If we want to reach a state of equality, the experiences of black and ethnic minorities must be recognised alongside wider Britishness. Whether its politically, or in the media, or in social media and its algorithms, creating our echo chambers of people this society as a whole needs to do better.

Diversity in the creative industries has been talked about for years, but, as is clear in the responses to Floyds death, change has not happened fast enough and there is a need for action as well as conversation. There is an opportunity here for the creative industries to respond to these terrible events by using its skills, talents and power to bring about real change and create a better world for us all.

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Black Lives Matter: Resources and Responses - Creative Review

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3 people who correctly predicted $10,000 Bitcoin (and how) – finder.com.au

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Update 3 June 2020

After about 14 hours above $10,000, Bitcoin crashed back down to $9,500 as quickly as it went up.

It appears to have been for the same reason it rose in the first place: whales traded big against the prevailing futures positions, triggering a squeeze. Basically, a big price movement starts liquidating futures contracts, which adds fuel to whatever direction the market is already moving.

The whales giveth, the whales taketh.

Michael Novogratz's prediction: "When 10k goes it will move fast" ended up being correct twice in one day, on both the way up and the way down.

The article below has been left as it was originally published, way back in the heady days of 2 June 2020.

Bitcoin is finally back above US$10,000, for the first time since February 2020, shortly before the massive crash of March. It was straining mightily and unsuccessfully to get past $10,000 a couple of weeks ago, but today it just abruptly pinged from around $9,700 to $10,200 in an hour flat.

Seeing Bitcoin back above that psychological five-digit mark is a heartwarming thing. It feels like Bitcoin is back where it belongs now and that everything is all right in the world once again.

Of course, given the actual state of the world right now that just goes to show why the number one rule of trading is to not trust your feelings.

In that vein, let's look at several different analysts who felt like Bitcoin was going to break $10,000 before it happened, and why they felt that way.

Some analysts are feeling the wind in their hair as they ride the Bitcoin rollercoaster out of the channel set following the 2017 highs, suggesting that Bitcoin may be on track to fundamentally shift out of its current price range.

Source

The timing is impeccable, because it lines up uncannily with the predictions laid out by the stock to flow model of Bitcoin valuation.

More specifically, we hit the "red dot" phase of the model on 1/2 June (depending on timezone), as laid out by pseudonymous analyst PlanB, just hours before Bitcoin pumped above $10,000. So, quite a few of the "red dot" crowd were celebrating this price rise before it even happened.

"The red dot" refers to the period immediately after the Bitcoin halving. It's called "the red dot" because improvised symbolism is the cornerstone of all faiths including the Bitcoin religion, and because red is the colour of certain dots on the chart below.

Source

The coloured dots on this chart are monthly Bitcoin prices, with the colour indicating how long until the next halving, and how long since the last halving.

The darkest blue dots are Bitcoin prices the month before each halving, while the darkest red dots (of the kind that popped out today) come out in the month after each halving. So, wherever the blue flips to red, that indicates a halving. As you can see, red dots have very consistently predicted a major Bitcoin price run since as far back as 2012.

In short, the red dot says that if history repeats itself, Bitcoin should see a major ascent this year to break $100,000 sometime next year. And now Bitcoin popped up above $10,000 just hours after the first dark red dot since 2016.

The thing about the red dot idea is that it simply says market forces will ineffably propel Bitcoin to higher price tiers, and that the power of maths means Bitcoin is simply destined to rise. That theory existed long before the Federal Reserve overclocked its printing presses in response to everything that's happening in 2020.

This poses something of a philosophical dilemma for anyone who wants to believe that the stock to flow theory predicts Bitcoin prices, while also attributing its price rises to other factors like quantitative easing or the White House's reaction to the ongoing protests, because it suggests Bitcoin prices would be doing the same thing regardless of what's going on in the world.

Other experts successfully called the rise before it happened by looking at more earthly factors, citing the general state of the world as a driver of Bitcoin prices, just generally feeling the vibe in the air and presumably tasting Bitcoin trading volume on the wind.

The tightest prediction around probably belongs to Galaxy Digital's Michael Novogratz, who pulled off this call about an hour before Bitcoin prices jumped above $10,000.

Source

Bitcoin's "coiling" was pointed out by others, who noted that Bitcoin had been settling into a tighter price range over time, which usually heralds a sudden, big move in one direction or the other.

The tension in the air may have given it the push it needed to go up instead of down when the time came. It's worth noting that the exact timing of the rise lines up closely with some of the US president's more fiery statements of the day.

"There was a sharp spike in the price this morning as US President Trump spoke to the press regarding the ongoing protests, which have been unfolding in cities across America. In the speech, he proclaimed that he would mobilise all available federal resources civilian and military. This quickly made headlines around the world as the mobilisation of the military in the United States is a rare occurrence," points out eToro analyst Matthew de Corrado. "For cryptoasset investors, this may have signified an escalation in the tension, and has no doubt caused some uncertainty over what could transpire in the coming few days."

Novogratz's first prediction ("Bitcoin will rise to $10k") has come to fruition, but the second ("Bitcoin will rise even faster after $10k") is still in the making and may hinge on current affairs, de Corrado said.

"In my opinion, Bitcoin, typically responds to depreciation of currency, global uncertainty and governmental instability. As weve seen this morning, the threat of using military action may have had a bullish effect on the asset. Any further instability in the US could put further upward pressure on Bitcoin," he said.

Craig "TraderCobb" Cobb also felt the move coming a full day in advance, as foretold in the charts. Some pretty high cap altcoins have been making major gains lately, he noted, and when people take profit against them they'll be trading back into Bitcoin.

"People trading the Cardano bitcoin cross will be taking profits back to Bitcoin when they do. Cardano/Bitcoin added 50% in 2 weeks. Due to the relative size of Cardano market cap wise with a 1.9 billion token value, the recent move higher is a lot of money to potentially flow back to Bitcoin," he wrote roughly 24 hours before Bitcoin made its move.

"Another example is Ethereum over the same 2 week period which has put on an impressive 14.85% against Bitcoin. Ethereum is the second highest by market cap behind bitcoin with $25 billion to its name which is another large amount of money if profits were to be taken and put into Bitcoin."

"So here we have 2 of the big market cap players both having added impressive gains against Bitcoin recently. These moves will account for a large portion of the possible money flow back to Bitcoin," he predicted.

That's exactly what happened. Bitcoin's sudden ascent initially dragged altcoins up with it, but then after Bitcoin crested $10,000 a lot of money bailed from altcoins back to Bitcoin, pouring gasoline on the fire and giving Bitcoin the cash infusion it needed to convincingly stay above $10,000.

The gold line is Bitcoin, the light blue is ADA/BTC, the purple is ADA/USD.

ADABTC chart by TradingView

Here we have three completely very different predictive methods, all of which looked at completely different things but somehow managed to paint the same picture, flagging down a price rise hours before it happened.

Something else they all have in common is that they're all expecting further rises.

The stock to flow model, or "the red dot" if you're feeling symbolic, predicts future rises because the unstoppable weight of sheer maths says Bitcoin prices should go up, and that's what the most consistent trend in Bitcoin says will happen.

Meanwhile, Novogratz is predicting a further rise because that's where the zeitgeist is leading us, and Cobb suggests that Bitcoin at $10,000 could reawaken wider media interest and bring some new money in.

"We really need to see Bitcoin above $10,000 to get the media back and new money flowing in," he wrote. "So, the question for bitcoin is how can the current market players get us above $10,000 to get the media chirping and the new money in?"

"Bitcoin is the headline grabber, you wont see anything in the news about the recent move of Cardano. Bitcoin needs to break above $10,000 for the media to come back to it."

The Bitcoin world appears to be feeling about as bullish as it ever has. But on the other hand, past performance does not guarantee future results, no matter how much it feels like it should.

It's also possible that whales deliberately orchestrated this rise specifically hoping that a break above $10,000, in conjunction with the red dot and the general vibes of the times, would be enough to spur some retail FOMO. There are enough mysterious whales in Bitcoin's ocean to move prices in all kinds of strange ways.

Plus, when we're asking whether Bitcoin is going to go up or down right now, the wisdom of the red dot is quite limited. It's all about tracing movements across years (with a yet-unknown degree of accuracy), rather than the day-to-day and week-to-week here. No matter how compelling or historically accurate it is, it can't indicate short, sharp moves of the kind we saw today.

"While the stock-to-flow analysis produced by PlanB has done very well to date in tracking the price of Bitcoin and predicting its future movements, my immediate concern would be correlating intraday movements in relation to a model that looks at data spanning multiple years," de Corrado said. "Investors should also remember that any historical data is not an indicator of future performance."

In the end, it seems the most accurate way of predicting the future is to wait until it happens.

Disclosure: The author holds BNB, BTC at the time of writing.

Disclaimer: This information should not be interpreted as an endorsement of cryptocurrency or any specific provider, service or offering. It is not a recommendation to trade. Cryptocurrencies are speculative, complex and involve significant risks they are highly volatile and sensitive to secondary activity. Performance is unpredictable and past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Consider your own circumstances, and obtain your own advice, before relying on this information. You should also verify the nature of any product or service (including its legal status and relevant regulatory requirements) and consult the relevant Regulators' websites before making any decision. Finder, or the author, may have holdings in the cryptocurrencies discussed.

Picture: Getty Images

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3 people who correctly predicted $10,000 Bitcoin (and how) - finder.com.au

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