Thailand 2031: A Glimpse into the Future – Bangkok Post – Bangkok Post – Bangkok Post

Why 2031? The next decade is likely to become seen as a milestone era during which the world accelerated into a period of development and prosperity having successfully turned the page of one of the worst chapters in modern history after Covid-19 shook the global community to its core.

Driven by the unprecedented pace of technological change, the world has already changed dramatically since the early 2000s when currently emerging sectors which harness our nascent grasp of artificial intelligence robotics, smart homes and factories, autonomous vehicles, and personal assistants were still the stuff of science fiction movies and idle fantasy.

Now, as we enter the middle period of the 21st century, it seems almost inconceivable that these, and many more, technological advancements won't soon become part of everyday life.

Despite, or maybe inspired by, the upheaval of the recent pandemic, many are predicting a sharp recovery accompanied by a reshaping of the geopolitical landscape.

And breakthroughs in science and medicine will only further reinforce the prevailing sense of change that will come to define this technological revolution. Transformation will be rapid and widespread, and the onus will be on every nation, Thailand included, to keep up or risk falling back in terms of development, as people's lives and livelihoods become increasingly inseparable from this new dawn.

To mark its 75th anniversary, which falls on Sunday, the Bangkok Post has invited several visionary leaders to tell us how they imagine the Thailand of 2031 in all its potential guises, from the economic and political to the technological, environmental and social.

As the paper celebrates a past laden with its own unforgettable moments, we hope readers will enjoy this glimpse into the future as part of this special publication.

Sustainability and technology will be driving forces during the next decade, but to reap the benefits adjustments need to be made

BySomruedi Banchongduang

Looking ahead to the next decade, the world will be defined by two major trends: sustainability and technology, according to Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput, governor of the Bank of Thailand.

"The wave of changes is coming fast, and it's up to us to prepare ourselves for it. We will either be submerged in it and get left behind, or ride the wave towards a better future" -- Sethaput Suthiwartharueput, Governor, Bank of Thailand

The mounting evidence of climate change and people's greater awareness through improved access to information has led to waves of environmental standards and regulations.

"Digital technology will be the other transformative force going forward. More efficient computers have allowed us to collect and make use of a quantity of data that was previously unimaginable," he said.

Companies and governments around the world are finding ways to integrate technology into their products, not only to increase efficiency, but also to improve the experiences and lives of the public.

Given these trends, where will we stand 10 years from now?

The sustainability trend together with a decreasing workforce means Thailand will shift away from quantity towards quality, according to Mr Sethaput.

Mass tourism will give way to small groups of eco-conscious travellers, he said. National park regulations will be updated with sustainability in mind.

As demand for healthcare and wellness professionals increases, so will the demand for upskilling and recertifying service workers, said Mr Sethaput.

New types of services could emerge. Given the pervasiveness of remote work, vacation destinations could be transformed into dream workplaces for office workers, he said.

Along with the service sector, agriculture and manufacturing will experience a major shift as well. Consumers' growing concerns about sustainability and health has led to green product categories that are able to command higher prices, said Mr Sethaput.

On the flipside, products that are deemed non-sustainable might be banned from some markets. A reliance on processing unique products, rather than producing commodities, will be key to delivering higher value-added exports, he said.

Digital technology will play an integral role in all of this, from mechanising manufacturing processes to enabling more efficient production and services through data.

Precision farming in controlled environments will reduce variability in crop yields for farmers, said Mr Sethaput. Automated government processes will enable small farmers to easily provide relevant sustainability certifications.

Those who fail to incorporate technology into their businesses will struggle to compete, while those who succeed will enjoy many more opportunities from that technology, he said.

Mr Sethaput said to prepare for the impending changes, three upgrades need to be applied immediately.

Capital:Thailand is severely underinvesting. Private investment growth has plummeted from more than 8% prior to the global financial crisis to only 1.6% pre-pandemic. Industry transformation cannot happen on a piecemeal basis, and clear government policies and support will be required.

People:The workforce will need a push, through policies supporting upskilling/reskilling to stay relevant for the industries of the next decade.

System:The system should facilitate the transformations, not hinder them. Regulations should take advantage of technological progress. More importantly, investment in infrastructure both physical and digital will allow people to build their future on a solid foundation.

Having recognised the financial sector's role in this process, the central bank seeks to prepare the financial system for the next decade. Digital initiatives such as the central bank's digital currency, licences for information-based lending, and the adoption of a new payment standard that would allow for easier processing of payment data will support the country's digital transformation, he said.

On the sustainability front, the central bank's Sustainable Finance Initiatives for Thailand initiates discussions on sustainable banking and the financial sector's role in steering Thailand towards sustainable growth.

"Thais have deep roots in agriculture, cuisine, hospitality and creativity. We can never really change our roots, but we can change the way we do things. In fact, it is necessary we change the way we do things starting today. The wave of change is coming fast, and it's up to us to prepare ourselves for it. We will either be submerged in it and get left behind, or ride the wave towards a better future," said Mr Sethaput.

The NESDC believes high-tech industry will be the key engine driving economic growth over the next decade

ByChatrudee Theparat

Thailand's economic structure will differ greatly in 10 years as high technology and innovation are likely to become the key engines to drive the country's economic growth instead of exports and tourism, says the state planning unit chief.

"Thailand needs to transform the manufacturing sector to higher value-added industries such as the bio-, circular and green economic model, which can increase the value of farm products" -- Danucha Pichayanan, Secretary-general, National Economic and Social Development Council

Danucha Pichayanan, secretary-general of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), said the ongoing Covid-19 outbreak poses a key challenge for Thailand's economic development, notably over the next five years, in addition to factors such as an ageing society and climate change.

"We expect from 2020-2022, the country's poverty problem will worsen because of the Covid-19 outbreaks," he said.

"The pandemic also triggered a big gap in income disparity because poor people are less able to cope with the crisis due to low education levels and lack of access to digital technology."

The country should focus more on restructuring to upgrade Thai industries to high technology and innovations from conventional industries, which are no longer in a position to compete in the global market, said Mr Danucha.

He said the first goal is to transition the country from natural resource-based industries towards a knowledge-based or high value-added economy that is environmentally friendly.

A high value-added economy focuses on activities that generate a large margin between the final price of a good or service and the cost of the inputs used to produce it, thus creating higher profits for businesses and higher wages for workers.

"Thailand needs to transform the manufacturing sector to higher value-added industries such as the bio-, circular and green economic model, which can increase the value of farm products," said Mr Danucha. "An electric vehicle ecosystem creates supporting industries including smart electrical parts and a smart grid, while we should also emphasise the medical industry, tourism, logistics and digital services."

He said private investment will play a key role to help the economy recover from the pandemic over the next 5-7 years, while the government is expected to pursue the Southern Economic Corridor and Northeastern Economic Corridor developments, which are similar in form to the existing flagship Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC).

Those two special economic zones should be sped up over next the 1-2 years because the EEC scheme alone is unlikely to be sufficient to drive investment over the next 5-10 years, said Mr Danucha.

Another nationwide goal should be to create more opportunities and equality for Thais so the poor can better enjoy the benefits of prosperity, both in terms of income and wealth, he said.

The government needs to promote sustainable growth among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and community businesses; develop well-being and smart cities; reduce the number of people living in poverty; and introduce more appropriate social protection measures, according to the NESDC.

To reduce the income gap, the state needs to ramp up income distribution, economic development and legislative reforms to give low-income groups access to more and better education, economic opportunities and justice, said Mr Danucha.

Production and consumption that affect the environment also need to be considered in order to shift to an environmentally friendly way of life and safety, he said.

The workforce needs to develop skills in high technology and innovation to drive the economy forward, said Mr Danucha.

The government should digitalise state services while upgrading government management to facilitate investors and public services, he said.

"We expect Thailand's development over the next 10 years to be in line with the country's 20-year national strategy [2018-37] and 13th National Economic and Social Development Plan [2023-27] that aims to transform Thailand in four areas: narrowing income disparity and reducing poverty through innovation; creating a knowledge-based economy and value-added development; human resources development; and digital government," said Mr Danucha.

A concern for the environment will help guide industry decisions for the next decade

ByYuthana Praiwan

Environmental concerns will increasingly take precedence in the energy business, playing a part in growth decisions that were previously dominated by profit motive.

In the energy and transport sectors, these concerns are leading to a shift towards clean energy as the country aims to make it the main source of electricity in the future, said Somphote Ahunai, chief executive of renewable energy developer Energy Absolute Plc (EA).

"Expansion of renewable energy capacity across the globe will eventually decrease costs due to economy of scale" -- Somphote Ahunai, Chief executive, Energry Absolute Plc

He expects energy and transport businesses will be hit by a "great disruption" in the same way as other businesses encountered a digital disruption that changed consumer lifestyles and markets.

Failure to adapt to this global trend of renewable power generation may land Thailand in an unpleasant economic situation post-pandemic, said Mr Somphote.

He said technical terms such as carbon border adjustment mechanism will become more familiar among businesses as many countries, led by the EU, discuss a proposal to enforce the mechanism as a tool to urge exporters worldwide to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the industrial sector or face a new non-tariff barrier.

The EU is spearheading a carbon neutrality campaign to achieve a net-zero goal that requires countries to strike a balance between emissions and absorption of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Stronger actions against climate change caused by global warming will prompt the electricity and auto industries to use more clean energy to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, said Mr Somphote.

New international trade rules and cheaper renewable energy will drive the business direction, he said.

Renewable energy is energy from sources that can be replenished. Solar and wind power release no carbon dioxide during the electricity-generating process, unlike fossil fuels such as coal.

Thailand needs to prepare electricity generation from cleaner sources of energy to meet growing demand, said Mr Somphote.

"Producers and exporters across industries will require clean energy to run their businesses," he said.

"They will base their decision to set up factories on energy issues and look for Asean countries that can satisfy their needs. Thailand needs to be prepared to compete on this front."

EA has projected future demand and made a large investment in renewable energy development projects. The company operates solar and wind farms, with power generation capacity of 664 megawatts.

EA also invested in energy storage system (ESS) technology by building a 6-billion-baht battery production facility in Chachoengsao with a capacity of 50 gigawatt-hours.

ESS is needed to store electricity produced by intermittent power sources such as solar and wind. Batteries are also crucial to run electric vehicles (EVs).

Mr Somphote admitted the costs of renewable energy development remain high, but they should decrease in the future, allowing competition with fossil-based electricity generation.

Expansion of renewable energy capacity across the globe will eventually decrease costs due to economy of scale, he said. This will allow electricity businesses to depend less on fossil fuel-fired power generation.

Clean energy is expected to play a more important role in the transport sector given the emphasis in state planning, said Mr Somphote.

The theory is the fewer vehicles running on internal combustion engines, the lower the level of carbon dioxide in the air.

He compared the coming age of EVs with the birth of smartphones.

"When phones changed from analogue to digital systems and were equipped with chips, people's lifestyles changed across the board," said Mr Somphote.

The National EV Policy Committee announced in March a goal to have 50% of vehicles made locally be EVs by 2030, part of an ambitious government plan to make Thailand a regional EV production hub.

He admires the government for its efforts to promote the EV industry, but whether the goal will be achieved depends largely on EV infrastructure, including adding many more charging outlets at publicly available stations, said Mr Somphote.

EA is building an EV assembly plant in Chachoengsao, focusing on manufacturing mass transport vehicles such as buses and trucks.

Earlier this year, the company also launched a commercial electric boat service on the Chao Phraya River.

Knowing large EVs require a huge amount of electricity, EA also invented "Parallel Charge", an ultra-fast charging system that takes only 15 minutes to recharge batteries by up to 80%.

Ageing society, health crisis will pose spending challenges, says TDRI president

ByMongkol Bangprapa

The private sector will continue to play a vital role in propelling growth and development in the next decade, but the country's stumbling block remains the bureaucracy, says Somkiat Tangkitvanich, president of the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI).

"To stay ahead of the curve, the country needs a strong and smart government because all the key challenges facing the country are complex and cannot be addressed in just four years, or one administration's tenure" -- Somkiat Tangkitvanich, TDRI president

A "smart and strong" government is needed to help it rise to challenges and get where it wants to be, he says.

Peering into the future, Mr Somkiat highlights four major issues that will have significant implications in shaping the country's landscape as he discusses key challenges and opportunities in the coming years.

Amid many critical transitions the country faces, Mr Somkiat says economic factors, technology disruption, geopolitics and global climate change are likely to pose the biggest challenges.

Among economic factors, the biggest one is demographic change. Thailand is becoming an ageing society and this will have impacts on two fronts: a shrinking labour force and a higher fiscal burden due to massive spending on elderly welfare.

Labour-intensive sectors will face a shrinking work force, and labour shortages will affect productivity and business growth, he said.

Demographic change will also increase the state's fiscal burden as the government sets aside a larger budget to cover welfare for the older population.

Technology transforms livelihoods, but Thailand is poorly prepared to respond adequately to disruptive technology changes especially in the areas of information technology and deep tech, be it in energy, healthcare, biotech or quantum computing, he said.

Thailand is trailing far behind other countries due to inadequate skill development and insufficient research funding, he added.

Spending on research and development has reached 1% of GDP in recent years, but it faces cutbacks due to the financial crunch brought on by the Covid-19 pandemic.

On the geopolitics front, trade tensions between the US and China have caused a shift in supply chains in the region, raising the awkward challenge of balancing the influence of these two giant economies.

Meanwhile, the impacts of natural disasters linked to climate change such as severe droughts and heavy floods in Thailand will be devastating as the country depends heavily on agriculture, tourism and the services sectors.

In the long run, unless underlying causes of climate change are mitigated, the threat of rising sea levels will put many coastal areas at risk.

'Whether Thailand can ensure growth and sustainability in the years to come depends critically on how the country addresses these key challenges,'' the TDRI president told the Bangkok Post.

The country's growth, which nosedived following the 1997 financial crisis, is forecast to be no more than 3% annually.

The economic devastation from the Covid-19 pandemic coupled with a higher fiscal burden associated with the ageing population is likely to make the debt-to-GDP ratio exceed the ceiling of 60%, he said.

Income inequality, which was in decline over the past two decades, is now reversing in the face of the public health crisis while environmental issues such as air pollution from PM2.5 ultra-fine dust still pose a threat to long-term prosperity, he said.

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