Bitter truths The Manila Times – The Manila Times

NATIONAL security and foreign relations policy should never be ruled by petty concerns. In many countries the agencies that handle these portfolios are relatively shielded from the exigencies of partisan politics and the excitability of popular opinion. The foundations of our West Philippine Sea (WPS) strategic thought should be a cold rationalism that is informed by a brutally honest assessment of our situation, capabilities and options. Nothing more. Nothing less.

Thus, the starting point of it all is the fact that China and its egregious nine-dash line will not go away. It is our unavoidable curse and other countries as well to be neighbors with China.

Superpowers bullying smaller states is everywhere inevitable.

Titans like the United States prefer to think of themselves as benign superpowers but that is far from reality. Neighboring countries have been grumbling for years about the insufferable behavior of the US. They are simply enduring American bullying just like we are with China.

The US has intervened in Latin American affairs far too many times to enumerate but some examples are necessary: the Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba; American support for the Contras against the Sandinistas in Nicaragua; US Drug Enforcement Agency involvement in Colombias war on drugs, among others.

In contrast, China does not interfere in Philippine domestic political affairs. However, Beijing is bullying us out of the WPS and that problem will not disappear unless we arrive at a compromise on the matter. There is no realistic circumstance where China abandons its WPS claims. Not even an addled brain can conjure up a powerful hallucination where China drops out of contention.

International pressure, on the other hand, is fools gold.

If China were to succumb to international pressure, it would have happened when Beijing was considerably weaker, not right now when it has grown massively stronger. The success of international pressure against China in the WPS simply defies logic given the circumstances. There is not a brain damage in the world capable of making that sound logical.

This is the situation we cannot escape from unless China magically crumbles as it did during the onset of its century of humiliation.

Ours is a supremely lopsided chess match with China. It is the kind of match where the slightest mistake on our part can mean an immediate and crushing loss. Our moves need to be textbook, following the established lines of the most formidable chess theories, careful and measured, without a hint of panic or excitement. China as our opponent is like a top-tier super grandmaster who does not want a draw against an amateur; he wants a victory.

As a heavy underdog, we must be realistic enough not to target a win against such a powerful adversary; a draw should suffice for us as we continue to climb the ladder of the sport.

The starting point of our preparation against such a formidable opponent is to study its moves in the past and understand the logic behind them. Subsequently, we need to search for textbook countermoves for every move that it typically makes. That is the only way to survive.

We have not the experience and resources to try new lines of response; China is cool, calculated and has a massive advantage against us. Any rookie mistake on our part can prove disastrous. We saw this happen during the time of Benigno Aquino 3rd, who was buried by his own incompetence and inexperience. China seized Panatag (Scarborough Shoal) away from the stupefied Aquino in 2012.

The US is a useful foil against China, but as the bumbling Aquino found, we can only tap the Americans under specific circumstances; Uncle Sam is not available to us all the time. Even as Beijing tries to avoid a confrontation with Washington, so does the US desperately want to avert conflict with China.

Timing saved Julian Felipe Reef this time around; the Americans were coming for the yearly Balikatan exercises this month and the Chinese wisely retreated consequently. Theirs was a strategic retreat. It was obviously temporary. They will be back.

We cannot rely on good luck all the time.

The Duterte administration manifested great wisdom in its self-restraint toward the Julian Felipe Reef situation as well as the incident involving an ABS-CBN team in Ayungin Shoal. The subsequent move to send coast guard ships to the area with the navy just on standby in Palawan is a textbook move. It signals a mature response from our country without unnecessarily escalating the situation.

Our defense officials must master the rules of engagement and the textbook brinkmanship moves and countermoves.

Whoever sits in Malacaang in 2022 should not be pee-uncontrollably-in-your-pants excitable as Aquino was in 2012. The chess match with China is not a joke. The stakes are sky high.

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Bitter truths The Manila Times - The Manila Times