Indias top bureaucrats are worried about political parties resorting to competitive populism and announcing fiscally unsustainable schemes to win votes in state elections. Reports suggest that they voiced these concerns to the Prime Minister in a meeting on April 2.
We did not need secretaries of the government of India to highlight the growing tendency towards competitive populism in India. Political parties are increasingly promising all sorts of things to voters from restoration of the old pension scheme for government employees to cash and two-wheelers for students who enter or finish college and free pilgrimage to senior citizens.
Is this new wave of competitive populism going to lead to a fiscal disaster in the country? Who exactly is responsible for this kind of behaviour? And can a political consensus be built to prevent such spending by state governments?
How big a problem is competitive populism in India?
This is not an easy question to answer. A state can spend money on providing free food over and above what the Public Distribution System (PDS) entitlements provide for, or it can spend money giving scooters to students who have entered college. There are enough examples of political parties making such promises in India.
And there is bipartisan support for this kind of politics. For example, both the Communist Party of India (Marxist) or CPI (M) led government in Kerala and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government in Uttar Pradesh banked heavily on the free ration scheme in the elections held in 2021 and 2022. The Congress accused the BJP of copying its demand of giving free scooters to women students in the recently held Uttar Pradesh elections.
While a fiscal hawk will scoff at both kinds of spending, especially if the state is hard-pressed for resources, the actual economic impact of such programmes is likely to be quite different. Additional food entitlements are likely to generate tailwinds for aggregate demand as the recipient households will be able to spend the money they would have had to spend on food on other items. Such a scheme is also targeted towards the most needy. The same cannot be said about gifting scooters to students. That money would have had a better use somewhere else. Similarly, farm loan waivers are a sub-optimal use of money towards throwing palliatives at what is a structural problem and often at the cost of long-term spending in agriculture.
This qualitative difference in the effect of various populist schemes also underlines the pitfalls of reading too much into headline numbers on categories such as social service spending by state governments. Building a comprehensive quantitative and qualitative database of what and where exactly state governments are spending on populist schemes, and how it is affecting the macroeconomy and society is a project which can keep even a large think tank busy for the next couple of years.
What drives this political behaviour?
The lack of clarity on the second question is the biggest reason why some of these schemes have attracted economists who use randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to understand policy decisions and their impact in India.
While the RCT method has been duly recognised with a Nobel Prize to Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo and Michael Kremer in 2019, there is an illustrious list of economists who have spoken against the dangers of relying too much on RCTs to make large policy decisions. The short point is, economists, on their own, are unlikely to arrive at an agreement on the impact or efficacy of such policies.
This brings us to the question of why are politicians doing this? The clichd answer that they do not care about fiscal prudence will not suffice, because state governments have to adhere to a more stringent fiscal norm than the Centre in India. When read with the fact that states have been left with very little tax sovereignty after the roll-out of Goods and Services Tax (GST), this is an even more intriguing question.
At the risk of oversimplification, one can say that the best answer to this question was given by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a campaign speech during the recently held Uttar Pradesh elections. Speaking at a rally on February 20, Modi referred to a social media video, where an old woman was pledging loyalty to the BJP because she had tasted Modis salt (ration) and therefore wont ditch him. While this can sound like usual election rhetoric to some, political scientists have been arguing that the BJP has been making a concerted effort to centralise welfare delivery which also leads to greater attribution for giving these benefits to none other than the Prime Minister.
This extraordinary centralisation of power, not just institutionally but also within the BJP, implies that the voter is increasingly likely to attribute (that is, give credit for) the delivery of economic benefits to Modi rather than the state-level leader. This contrasts with much of the 2000s, where, after a spate of fiscal decentralisation, several state-level leaders built their reputations on the ability to deliver benefits Neelanjan Sircar, a senior fellow at the Centre for Policy Research argued in a March 2021 Economic and Political Weekly article.
While Sircar argues that this process has also weakened the welfare credentials of chief ministers from the BJP and its allies too, and they will most likely look to establish their credentials not in welfare delivery but in Hindu mobilisation, it is not surprising that the anti-BJP parties have been trying to outdo the BJP by promising more populist schemes. Promises such as restoration of old pensions scheme and cash transfers by anti-BJP parties need to be seen in this light.
As is obvious, competitive populism by regional political forces is a last-ditch attempt to push back against the BJP which is the new national political hegemon in India. To meet such challenges, the BJP also indulges in competitive populism at the level of states, not to speak to decisions such as implementing PM-Kisan, which gives 6,000 to every farmer in India, from the Centre a decision taken after the BJP lost crucial state elections just before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
Realpolitik suggests that regional parties are unlikely to prioritise long-term economic health over political survival. And that perhaps answers the third question.
Every Friday, HTs data and political economy editor, Roshan Kishore, combines his commitment to data and passion for qualitative analysis in a column for HT Premium, Terms of Trade. With a focus on one big number and one big issue, he will go behind the headlines to ask a question and address political economy issues and social puzzles facing contemporary India.
The views expressed are personal
See the original post:
Terms of Trade | What drives competitive populism in India? - Hindustan Times
- Scholz warns of the rise of right-wing populists ahead of EU elections - Euronews - April 8th, 2024 [April 8th, 2024]
- An ex-GOP congressman blasts the 'populist wave' that he says has corroded conservatism: 'Now we're impeaching ... - Yahoo Canada - April 8th, 2024 [April 8th, 2024]
- Thinking About A Truly Populist Party - Above the Law - April 8th, 2024 [April 8th, 2024]
- The Polish response to the WCK incident exposes the dangers of populism - Ynetnews - April 8th, 2024 [April 8th, 2024]
- Greatest threat facing EU is populism, Mitsotakis tells ND faithful - Kathimerini English Edition - April 8th, 2024 [April 8th, 2024]
- Polish pro-EU wing wants local vote to end 'age of populism' - EURACTIV - April 8th, 2024 [April 8th, 2024]
- US election: how populists encourage blind mistrust and how to push back - The Conversation - December 19th, 2023 [December 19th, 2023]
- Lessons from the Netherlands on the rise of the populist radical right - UK in a Changing Europe - December 19th, 2023 [December 19th, 2023]
- Opinion | From Jacobites to Populists - The New York Times - August 2nd, 2023 [August 2nd, 2023]
- Why Right Wing Populism Is Unable To Address the Climate Crisis - Impakter - August 2nd, 2023 [August 2nd, 2023]
- In our debased world, a new, benign Manhattan Project is ... - The New European - August 2nd, 2023 [August 2nd, 2023]
- Populism has given the elites more power than ever - Financial Times - July 19th, 2023 [July 19th, 2023]
- Starmer should beware a Left-wing insurgency - UnHerd - July 19th, 2023 [July 19th, 2023]
- The French Far-Right Tsunami Is Coming - The Media Line - July 19th, 2023 [July 19th, 2023]
- Can Spain hold back the right? - The New European - July 19th, 2023 [July 19th, 2023]
- Populism, authoritarianism and agrarian struggles - Transnational Institute - July 19th, 2023 [July 19th, 2023]
- Mainstream Conservatives Are On The Run in Europe, Too - POLITICO - June 30th, 2023 [June 30th, 2023]
- Opinion: The Perils Of Populism - Hingham Anchor - June 30th, 2023 [June 30th, 2023]
- In the global struggle with populism, elections are a salve - Frederick News Post - June 30th, 2023 [June 30th, 2023]
- Column: The push me-pull you of political populism - Omaha World-Herald - June 30th, 2023 [June 30th, 2023]
- Why the World Is on the Brink of Great Disorder - TIME - June 30th, 2023 [June 30th, 2023]
- Europe's liberals should take a page or two out of the populist movement's book - Euronews - June 2nd, 2023 [June 2nd, 2023]
- Smith, Trump and the Paranoid Populist Assault on Democracy - TheTyee.ca - June 2nd, 2023 [June 2nd, 2023]
- Other GOP candidates still pave the way for Trump's vile populism - National Catholic Reporter - June 2nd, 2023 [June 2nd, 2023]
- Terrorism and voting: The rise of right-wing populism in Germany - CEPR - May 31st, 2023 [May 31st, 2023]
- From Donald Trump to Danielle Smith: 4 ways populists are ... - The Conversation - May 31st, 2023 [May 31st, 2023]
- Pluralism vs. Ultra-Nationalism: The Real Cleavage Behind Turkey's ... - E-International Relations - May 31st, 2023 [May 31st, 2023]
- The Erdogan era lives on, as does the power of populism - asianews.network - May 31st, 2023 [May 31st, 2023]
- Democratic backsliding in Mexico: Lessons for opponents of ... - Wilson Center - May 31st, 2023 [May 31st, 2023]
- Can Ron DeSantis Out-Populist Donald Trump to Win the GOP ... - Boston University - May 31st, 2023 [May 31st, 2023]
- Danger of populism - Daily Pioneer - May 31st, 2023 [May 31st, 2023]
- Algeria: A populist leader challenging our notions of what is possible in the Middle East - Middle East Monitor - May 14th, 2023 [May 14th, 2023]
- How Imran Khan's populism has divided Pakistan and put it on a knife's edge - The Conversation - May 14th, 2023 [May 14th, 2023]
- Slovakia to Get 'Expert' Government But Return to Populism Looms - Balkan Insight - May 14th, 2023 [May 14th, 2023]
- Portuguese president: empowering youth will be the death of populism - EURACTIV - May 14th, 2023 [May 14th, 2023]
- LETTER TO THE EDITOR: The anti-intellectualism of conservative ... - Winnipeg Free Press - May 14th, 2023 [May 14th, 2023]
- The populism of Matthew Goodwinand its many problems - Prospect Magazine - May 14th, 2023 [May 14th, 2023]
- The Business Nightmare of Dealing with Government - The New York Times - May 14th, 2023 [May 14th, 2023]
- Ciarn Fitzgerald: Focus on food prices is mere populism - Agriland - May 14th, 2023 [May 14th, 2023]
- Populism in the United States - Wikipedia - February 26th, 2023 [February 26th, 2023]
- What is Populism? | Political Science - Stanford University - February 5th, 2023 [February 5th, 2023]
- Why Populism Is Rising And How To Combat It - Forbes - February 5th, 2023 [February 5th, 2023]
- Mexicos Dying Democracy: AMLO and the Toll of Authoritarian Populism - December 28th, 2022 [December 28th, 2022]
- Trump, Brexit, and the Rise of Populism: Economic Have-Nots and ... - December 26th, 2022 [December 26th, 2022]
- Pope lunches with poor, denounces sirens of populism - December 21st, 2022 [December 21st, 2022]
- 3 steps forward, but 2.5 back for populism - bangkokpost.com - November 25th, 2022 [November 25th, 2022]
- Pence warns of 'unprincipled populism,' 'Putin apologists' - Fox 34 - October 21st, 2022 [October 21st, 2022]
- London lesson: The 44-day govt in Britain is a reminder to our politicians to give up fiscal populism - Times of India - October 21st, 2022 [October 21st, 2022]
- Left-wing populism - Wikipedia - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- Populism on the rise in Canada as unelectable Pierre Poilievre sweeps ... - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- The Left Is Demonizing PopulistsFor Pushing What the Left Once ... - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- DAILY | Poilievre vs. Media Party; Trudeau on populism, disinfo; Mayor ... - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- Globalization is fueling the populism surging across the Western world - The Hill - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- Smith rides high on populist wave Winnipeg Free Press - Winnipeg Free Press - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- J. D. Vance and the Collapse of Dignity - The Atlantic - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- 7 non-fiction book releases to add to your TBR - The Daily Vox - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- Ian Bremmer: How crises opened the way for some positive change in Europe - New Zealand Herald - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- From OPRF to Poland with a focus on Ukraine - Wednesday Journal - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- Florida's DeSantis takes conservative populism to the Rust Belt - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- Journalism and the Threat of Neo-Populism - Geopoliticalmonitor.com - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- History As It Happens: The 'fake' populists - Washington Times - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- European populist parties vote share on the rise, especially on right - Pew Research Center - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- DYER: Progress and decline of populism Red Deer Advocate - Red Deer Advocate - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- The Populist Pugilist Vying to Replace Conor Lamb - The American Prospect - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- Understanding Europes shift to the right - POLITICO Europe - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- Trump still "king" and "kingmaker" to some in Pennsylvania - CBS News - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- Investigation reveals Poilievre, populist and pro-natural gas groups spread fertilizer disinformation to whip up outrage against Trudeau - Canada's... - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- Citizens or consumers | The Times - The Wellington Times - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- The Challenges of Epistemic Communities in Shaping Policy in the Age of Post-Truth - E-International Relations - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- The EU, not Meloni, is the threat to democracy - Arab News - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- Bulgaria's elections could threaten NATO and EU unity on Ukraine - Washington Examiner - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- I'm not optimistic about the future of the global economy and I don't expect the next 10 years to be particularly good - CTech - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- Brazil's election: The rise and impact of populism - University of Michigan News - September 29th, 2022 [September 29th, 2022]
- Opinion | Right-Wing Populism May Rise in the U.S. - The Wall Street Journal - September 29th, 2022 [September 29th, 2022]
- Survey: Right-wing populism ex pat Estonians' main negative image of home - ERR News - September 29th, 2022 [September 29th, 2022]
- Jair Bolsonaro's Hard-Right Populism Is Horrifying. But He Didn't Come From Nowhere. - Jacobin magazine - September 29th, 2022 [September 29th, 2022]
- The Wild Ones - by Nick Catoggio - The Dispatch - September 29th, 2022 [September 29th, 2022]
- Political scientists to study populist rhetoric as a threat to democracy - The Source - Washington University in St. Louis - September 27th, 2022 [September 27th, 2022]
- Italy's opposition blame disunity and populism for defeat - Reuters - September 27th, 2022 [September 27th, 2022]
- Utopian Nostalgia and the Radical Right - The Dispatch - September 27th, 2022 [September 27th, 2022]