At first glance, Turkeys electoral drama appeared to confirm well-worn readings of Middle Eastern politics as driven by clashing Islamists vs. secularists. The frame has long shaped outsiders perceptions of the country and, like other familiar binaries (e.g. Turk vs. Kurd, or orthodox Sunni vs. heterodox Alevi) has been internalized by many people in the region. The impression was encouraged by candidates choice of where to wrap their campaigns. Incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoan closed both the first and second rounds with events at Hagia Sofia a 1,500 year-old structure which has served as church, mosque and museum, and which he reconsecrated as a mosque in 2020. At both rallies, the monuments symbolically drenched spaces pulsated with the leaders electoral formula: equation of Erdoans very person with faith, nation, and state. Opposition challenger Kemal Kldarolu, on the other hand, wrapped his campaign with a more subdued visit to Atatrks mausoleum in Ankaraa tribute to the ongoing resonance of the secularist founding father for millions of voters.
Yet, closer examination reveals a different cleavage at play one which is propelling would-be Erdoans to power across the globe. This is a clash between people with pluralistic orientations: i.e., folks from all walks of life, who are okay sharing space with people who look, speak, and pray differently than they do, versus ultra-nationalists: people who believe that state and society are best served when we rally around a singular ethnic and/or religious flag.
The oppositions Milli (Nation) coalition sought to rally the former. Bringing together moderate, secularist nationalists from the right and left alike, the party fielded an Alevi leader who brokered a cross-camp coalition in pursuit of greater pluralism. This entailed formal alliances with Islamist critics of Erdoans hardline turn. It also incorporated an informal, but electorally meaningful, alliance with the restive Kurdish movement. The result, as a savvy Tweeter put it, was that on election day, leftists rushed to vote for rightists, Kurds voted for Turkish nationalists, atheists voted for devout Muslims, homosexuals voted for extreme conservatives, and former ministers of Erdoan voted for the staunchest opponents of his regime. The fact that this oddball coalition carried almost half of the vote despite Erdoans immense incumbent advantage was remarkable, if ultimately, insufficient.
Conversely, Erdoans Cumhur (Peoples) coalition with ultra-nationalist parties of both secular and Islamist orientation, gave the leader a crucial boost in the presidential contest which he won on 28 May, and parliamentary elections which wrapped on 14 May. The numbers are telling. In the first round, Erdoan lost ground within almost every electoral district, including his traditional strongholds, compared to prior presidential campaigns. Similarly, his Justice and Development Party (AKP) underperformed, costing the party 27 parliamentary seats. Yet, ultra-nationalist allies compensated by bringing 55 seats to the coalition. In short, by joining forces with the medium-sized Nationalist Action Party (MHP) and smaller, radical right parties, the AKP-led Peoples coalition secured a robust parliamentary majority.
Ultra-nationalist swing voters also decided the presidential race. Giving 5.17 percent of the first round vote to the third presidential candidate, Sinan Oans ATA alliance, they denied both Erdoan and Kldarolu the margins each needed to win (an especially demotivating outcome for the latter who had set expectations high).
The imperative, in turn, of courting ATA votes in Round Two, put Kldarolu in the impossible position of wooing extreme right nationalists while maintaining the 10 percent of ballots he had been lent by leftists, especially Kurds. Kldarolu tried by doubling down on anti-immigrant rhetoric, while scrambling to disassociate Kurdish voters from Kurdish terrorists. In the process, he squandered the inclusive spirit which had buoyed the opposition coalition in the first place.
The result was a victory for Erdoan who took home 52.18 percent of the vote, in comparison to the oppositions 47.82. This translates into a strengthened executive presidency and accelerated state capture, in coalition with ultra-nationalists of both Islamist and secular stripe. At least in the short term then, prospects appear dim for Turkeys de facto diverse society to claw back a pluralistic political system, where rule of law, freedoms, and human, womens and minority rights are effectively enshrined.
What lessons can we draw from Turkeys turn? We live, after all, in a world from Modis India and Orbans Hungary to Trump or DeSantiss United States, where populists, their ultra-nationalist allies, and opportunistic enablers are seeking to rewrite the frames and rules of electoral democracy.
Lesson 1: Its not only the economy, stupid
Much of the pre-election optimism surrounding the opposition was due to the sorry state of Turkeys economy: its hyperinflation and ravaged currency, and Erdoans counterintuitive response (e.g. refusal to raise interest rates; expansive economic populism). The governments bungled relief efforts after devastating earthquakes in February which killed at least 50,000, and left some 1.5 million homeless also were thought to advantage the opposition.
But, it seems that when a race is framed as if survival of the national in-group is at stake, identity politics beat out bread-and-butter concerns. Exceptionally high turnout by the AKP base underscores the urgency which Erdoan communicated to supporters. Populists claim to be bulwarks against existential threats real or imagined likewise render them remarkably immune to scandals for which conventional politicians are punished. In short, polarization, post-truth communication, and fear-mongering worked, from fomenting moral panic about womens and LGBTQ+ activism under the opposition umbrella, to a doctored video showing Kldarolu conspiring with Kurdish militants.
The results further suggest that conventional wisdom regarding bad economy = poor electoral performance ignores interest group preferences at its own peril. In other words, unsound policies which nevertheless benefit key constituencies can help a platform prevail at the ballot box, even though the result is managed decline for the economy overall. (In this case, smaller business owners, shopkeepers, and their workers key demographics for the pro-religious and ultra-nationalist base either benefit from Erdoans economic policies, or from his compensatory, economic populism.)
Lesson 2: Pre-election fairness matters as much as Election Day free-ness
Democracys minimum criterion is free and fair elections. In Turkeys case, there is wide consensus that election-day is relatively free (despite a number of anomalies reported at polls across the country). But the build-up to elections simply was not fair.
When it comes to mining the electoral playing field, the tactically brilliant Erdoan wrote the playbook which right-wing populists around the world are reading. Choice elements include control of traditional media through coercion and cooption, while policing and manipulating social media. Meanwhile, critical external media is delegitimized as driven by nefarious (Western/Zionist/fill-in-the-blank) interests. The result, since Turkeys far-right coalition coalesced in 2015, has been a steady drumbeat of very heavy nationalistic and militaristic narrative every day from morning till night on the TVs, in the newspapers, and beyond, shaping voter sensibilities.
A second strategy is to stack governing bodies with allies from election boards to the Courts. This helps to hedge against a vote gone awryallowing, for example, a populist incumbent to challenge an unfavorable electoral outcome (as Erdoan sought to do during nation-wide municipal elections in 2019).
As importantly, however, capturing institutions enables the incumbent to shape the opposition bench by disqualifying charismatic rivals. For example, the mediatic mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamolu, had a better chance of bridging two key demographics right-wing Turks and left-wing Kurds than Kldarolu. But he was prevented from running by dubious charges brought in December 2022. Forced to appeal, he would have campaigned with Damocles sword dangling over not just his presidential candidacy but his Istanbul mayorship. This danger compelled the opposition, in turn, to line up behind a weaker candidate.
Lesson 3: From Illiberal to Potemkin Democracy?
A key question then after Turkeys elections is whether the very notion of illiberal democracy is meaningful in our age of performative politics? Or, as some have argued, does the hope it evokes do more harm than goodallowing earnest voter engagement on election-day to legitimize outcomes obtained through post-truth polarization, and the mined playing field? Right-wing populists like Trump and Bolsanaro did weaponize democracy, embracing the vote when they won, but unleashing ultra-nationalist rank and file to overturn results when they lost. Erdoan a more sophisticated player than his western copycats stated, for his part, that he would accept any outcome. But there is evidence that at least some elements within his coalition were positioning for a stop the steal spectacle, had identity politics and the uneven playing field not prevailed.
Yet, ultimately, the only way left to prevent illiberal democracy from devolving into Potemkin farce may be the ballot box itself. In this respect, an uplifting takeaway from Turkeys elections was voters commitment to electoral participation (which was over 90 percent at many polling stations). In the build-up to March 14th& 28th alike, they turned out droves in diaspora and at home to vote and monitor, to celebrate and console. It is this conviction, that government is legitimized by the will of the people, which may compel even the most cynical populists, and their ultra-nationalist partners, to allow intermittent opportunities for democratic contestation, even if there is less democracy to save.
Follow this link:
Pluralism vs. Ultra-Nationalism: The Real Cleavage Behind Turkey's ... - E-International Relations
- Scholz warns of the rise of right-wing populists ahead of EU elections - Euronews - April 8th, 2024 [April 8th, 2024]
- An ex-GOP congressman blasts the 'populist wave' that he says has corroded conservatism: 'Now we're impeaching ... - Yahoo Canada - April 8th, 2024 [April 8th, 2024]
- Thinking About A Truly Populist Party - Above the Law - April 8th, 2024 [April 8th, 2024]
- The Polish response to the WCK incident exposes the dangers of populism - Ynetnews - April 8th, 2024 [April 8th, 2024]
- Greatest threat facing EU is populism, Mitsotakis tells ND faithful - Kathimerini English Edition - April 8th, 2024 [April 8th, 2024]
- Polish pro-EU wing wants local vote to end 'age of populism' - EURACTIV - April 8th, 2024 [April 8th, 2024]
- US election: how populists encourage blind mistrust and how to push back - The Conversation - December 19th, 2023 [December 19th, 2023]
- Lessons from the Netherlands on the rise of the populist radical right - UK in a Changing Europe - December 19th, 2023 [December 19th, 2023]
- Opinion | From Jacobites to Populists - The New York Times - August 2nd, 2023 [August 2nd, 2023]
- Why Right Wing Populism Is Unable To Address the Climate Crisis - Impakter - August 2nd, 2023 [August 2nd, 2023]
- In our debased world, a new, benign Manhattan Project is ... - The New European - August 2nd, 2023 [August 2nd, 2023]
- Populism has given the elites more power than ever - Financial Times - July 19th, 2023 [July 19th, 2023]
- Starmer should beware a Left-wing insurgency - UnHerd - July 19th, 2023 [July 19th, 2023]
- The French Far-Right Tsunami Is Coming - The Media Line - July 19th, 2023 [July 19th, 2023]
- Can Spain hold back the right? - The New European - July 19th, 2023 [July 19th, 2023]
- Populism, authoritarianism and agrarian struggles - Transnational Institute - July 19th, 2023 [July 19th, 2023]
- Mainstream Conservatives Are On The Run in Europe, Too - POLITICO - June 30th, 2023 [June 30th, 2023]
- Opinion: The Perils Of Populism - Hingham Anchor - June 30th, 2023 [June 30th, 2023]
- In the global struggle with populism, elections are a salve - Frederick News Post - June 30th, 2023 [June 30th, 2023]
- Column: The push me-pull you of political populism - Omaha World-Herald - June 30th, 2023 [June 30th, 2023]
- Why the World Is on the Brink of Great Disorder - TIME - June 30th, 2023 [June 30th, 2023]
- Europe's liberals should take a page or two out of the populist movement's book - Euronews - June 2nd, 2023 [June 2nd, 2023]
- Smith, Trump and the Paranoid Populist Assault on Democracy - TheTyee.ca - June 2nd, 2023 [June 2nd, 2023]
- Other GOP candidates still pave the way for Trump's vile populism - National Catholic Reporter - June 2nd, 2023 [June 2nd, 2023]
- Terrorism and voting: The rise of right-wing populism in Germany - CEPR - May 31st, 2023 [May 31st, 2023]
- From Donald Trump to Danielle Smith: 4 ways populists are ... - The Conversation - May 31st, 2023 [May 31st, 2023]
- The Erdogan era lives on, as does the power of populism - asianews.network - May 31st, 2023 [May 31st, 2023]
- Democratic backsliding in Mexico: Lessons for opponents of ... - Wilson Center - May 31st, 2023 [May 31st, 2023]
- Can Ron DeSantis Out-Populist Donald Trump to Win the GOP ... - Boston University - May 31st, 2023 [May 31st, 2023]
- Danger of populism - Daily Pioneer - May 31st, 2023 [May 31st, 2023]
- Algeria: A populist leader challenging our notions of what is possible in the Middle East - Middle East Monitor - May 14th, 2023 [May 14th, 2023]
- How Imran Khan's populism has divided Pakistan and put it on a knife's edge - The Conversation - May 14th, 2023 [May 14th, 2023]
- Slovakia to Get 'Expert' Government But Return to Populism Looms - Balkan Insight - May 14th, 2023 [May 14th, 2023]
- Portuguese president: empowering youth will be the death of populism - EURACTIV - May 14th, 2023 [May 14th, 2023]
- LETTER TO THE EDITOR: The anti-intellectualism of conservative ... - Winnipeg Free Press - May 14th, 2023 [May 14th, 2023]
- The populism of Matthew Goodwinand its many problems - Prospect Magazine - May 14th, 2023 [May 14th, 2023]
- The Business Nightmare of Dealing with Government - The New York Times - May 14th, 2023 [May 14th, 2023]
- Ciarn Fitzgerald: Focus on food prices is mere populism - Agriland - May 14th, 2023 [May 14th, 2023]
- Populism in the United States - Wikipedia - February 26th, 2023 [February 26th, 2023]
- What is Populism? | Political Science - Stanford University - February 5th, 2023 [February 5th, 2023]
- Why Populism Is Rising And How To Combat It - Forbes - February 5th, 2023 [February 5th, 2023]
- Mexicos Dying Democracy: AMLO and the Toll of Authoritarian Populism - December 28th, 2022 [December 28th, 2022]
- Trump, Brexit, and the Rise of Populism: Economic Have-Nots and ... - December 26th, 2022 [December 26th, 2022]
- Pope lunches with poor, denounces sirens of populism - December 21st, 2022 [December 21st, 2022]
- 3 steps forward, but 2.5 back for populism - bangkokpost.com - November 25th, 2022 [November 25th, 2022]
- Pence warns of 'unprincipled populism,' 'Putin apologists' - Fox 34 - October 21st, 2022 [October 21st, 2022]
- London lesson: The 44-day govt in Britain is a reminder to our politicians to give up fiscal populism - Times of India - October 21st, 2022 [October 21st, 2022]
- Left-wing populism - Wikipedia - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- Populism on the rise in Canada as unelectable Pierre Poilievre sweeps ... - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- The Left Is Demonizing PopulistsFor Pushing What the Left Once ... - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- DAILY | Poilievre vs. Media Party; Trudeau on populism, disinfo; Mayor ... - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- Globalization is fueling the populism surging across the Western world - The Hill - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- Smith rides high on populist wave Winnipeg Free Press - Winnipeg Free Press - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- J. D. Vance and the Collapse of Dignity - The Atlantic - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- 7 non-fiction book releases to add to your TBR - The Daily Vox - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- Ian Bremmer: How crises opened the way for some positive change in Europe - New Zealand Herald - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- From OPRF to Poland with a focus on Ukraine - Wednesday Journal - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- Florida's DeSantis takes conservative populism to the Rust Belt - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- Journalism and the Threat of Neo-Populism - Geopoliticalmonitor.com - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- History As It Happens: The 'fake' populists - Washington Times - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- European populist parties vote share on the rise, especially on right - Pew Research Center - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- DYER: Progress and decline of populism Red Deer Advocate - Red Deer Advocate - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- The Populist Pugilist Vying to Replace Conor Lamb - The American Prospect - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- Understanding Europes shift to the right - POLITICO Europe - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- Trump still "king" and "kingmaker" to some in Pennsylvania - CBS News - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- Investigation reveals Poilievre, populist and pro-natural gas groups spread fertilizer disinformation to whip up outrage against Trudeau - Canada's... - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- Citizens or consumers | The Times - The Wellington Times - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- The Challenges of Epistemic Communities in Shaping Policy in the Age of Post-Truth - E-International Relations - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- The EU, not Meloni, is the threat to democracy - Arab News - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- Bulgaria's elections could threaten NATO and EU unity on Ukraine - Washington Examiner - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- I'm not optimistic about the future of the global economy and I don't expect the next 10 years to be particularly good - CTech - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- Brazil's election: The rise and impact of populism - University of Michigan News - September 29th, 2022 [September 29th, 2022]
- Opinion | Right-Wing Populism May Rise in the U.S. - The Wall Street Journal - September 29th, 2022 [September 29th, 2022]
- Survey: Right-wing populism ex pat Estonians' main negative image of home - ERR News - September 29th, 2022 [September 29th, 2022]
- Jair Bolsonaro's Hard-Right Populism Is Horrifying. But He Didn't Come From Nowhere. - Jacobin magazine - September 29th, 2022 [September 29th, 2022]
- The Wild Ones - by Nick Catoggio - The Dispatch - September 29th, 2022 [September 29th, 2022]
- Political scientists to study populist rhetoric as a threat to democracy - The Source - Washington University in St. Louis - September 27th, 2022 [September 27th, 2022]
- Italy's opposition blame disunity and populism for defeat - Reuters - September 27th, 2022 [September 27th, 2022]
- Utopian Nostalgia and the Radical Right - The Dispatch - September 27th, 2022 [September 27th, 2022]
- Constitution Day Lecture to be Given by Political Science Professor Najib Ghadbian - University of Arkansas Newswire - September 27th, 2022 [September 27th, 2022]