Liam Napier: The All Blacks’ six selection conundrums for series decider – New Zealand Herald

All Blacks Captain Sam Cane addresses the media following the loss to Ireland.

OPINION:

The All Blacks face a series of selection conundrums for the deciding test against Ireland in Wellington this weekend. Liam Napier breaks down the possible changes.

Sam Whitelock's expected return from concussion provides a significant and timely boost for the All Blacks. Ronan O'Gara, writing in the Irish Examiner last week, suggested the absence of Whitelock's lineout IQ equates to a 10-to-15-point difference from the first test. Cards aside, O'Gara wasn't wrong. Ireland's set piece improved markedly in Dunedin. The tourists pinched two All Blacks throws and got the shunt on at scrum time.

Losing Whitelock forced the All Blacks to alter their loose forward composition, which didn't work. In a positive outlook for the All Blacks, Whitelock trained on Tuesday and is expected to pass his 12th day concussion test after reporting delayed onset symptoms from Eden Park. Should that scenario come to pass, he will assume the lineout calling responsibility and resume his familiar second-row partnership with Brodie Retallick. Tupou Vaa'i has also returned from his Covid-enforced layoff. As one of the form locks through Super Rugby he may slot onto the bench for Patrick Tuipulotu.

Covid and a lingering neck injury robbed David Havili of the chance to feature in the first two tests. Chiefs second-five Quinn Tupaea made the most of a front foot platform at Eden Park but with the forward pack beaten in Dunedin and the attack misfiring, Tupaea struggled to assert his presence. Change is needed. The lack of alternative kicking options from the midfield was also evident last week. This is where Havili could prove valuable. His tactical nous and experience combined with Richie Mo'unga to pick apart the Blues backfield in the Super Rugby final, laying the foundations for the Crusaders success. Injecting Havili would give Ireland another kicking and creative threat to consider but the All Blacks midfield ultimately remains unsettled.

Will Jordan's irrepressible form cannot be confined to the bench. Jordan would have started at Eden Park and Dunedin had Covid not struck him down. While he again stated his compelling case from fullback for the Crusaders as one of the best players in Super Rugby this season, Jordan has played all 14 tests on the wing and is, therefore, expected to assume the No 14 jersey. With a wayward pass, unfortunate yellow card and defensive errors, Leicester Fainga'anuku endured a difficult second test and may make way for Crusaders teammate Sevu Reece on the left edge, with Caleb Clarke still sidelined by his hamstring issue. The All Blacks' work under the high ball in Dunedin left a lot to be desired. Jordan should help address this critical area.

Whitelock's return almost certainly continues the revolving door at No 6 after the Dalton Papalii experiment of adopting three openside flankers failed to bring projected rewards. Barrett's successful move to the blindside in the first test, which helped the All Blacks gain the upper hand in the set piece battle, leaves him the leading candidate to return to the side of the scrum. Barrett has, however, endured a heavy workload. After sitting out the first two tests with a foot complaint, Blues blindside Akira Ioane must be in contention either from the bench or in a starting capacity.

Ofa Tuungafasi's underwhelming night in Dunedin and Angus Ta'avao's three-week suspension necessitate change at tighthead. Tuungafasi's defence was exposed; he was fortunate not to concede a penalty try for his early tackle and the scrum, admittedly while one man short, struggled. Ta'avao's exit after a ridiculous suspension for his accidental head clash brings Nepo Laulala into the fold. A nagging neck injury confined Laulala to the sidelines for the past two weeks but his scrummaging prowess looms as an asset to be welcomed into the starting role. Laulala's lack of mobility presents a potential defensive target for Jonathan Sexton, though.

Blues prospects Stephen Perofeta and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck comprise two of six rookie All Blacks yet to make their debuts in this series. It would, however, be a bold move to throw either into a white-hot series decider. Dane Coles savoured limited game-time with the Hurricanes this season but his mongrel and ball skills could be included for a test on his home patch. The final back spot is something of a mystery with five players Jack Goodhue, Tupaea, Fainga'anuku, Tuivasa-Sheck and Braydon Ennor all vying for contention.

Possible All Blacks team: George Bower, Codie Taylor, Nepo Laulala, Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick, Scott Barrett/Akira Ioane, Sam Cane, Ardie Savea, Aaron Smith, Beauden Barrett, Sevu Reece, David Havili, Rieko Ioane, Will Jordan, Jordie Barrett

Bench: Dane Coles, Adian Ross, Ofa Tuungafasi, Tupou Vaa'i, Akira Ioane/Dalton Papalii, Folau Fakatava, Richie Mo'unga, Jack Goodhue

They would never say as much publicly but World Rugby are understood to have admitted the officiating bungle that led to Ardie Savea sitting out the final 45 minutes of last week's loss in Dunedin. In written correspondence, World Rugby referees boss Joel Jutge conceded Savea should have been allowed back on the field, as the All Blacks requested at the time which led to the match being stopped as referee Jaco Peyper ran to the side of the field to consult his officials. Amid widespread confusion, Savea should have replaced Papalii.

Speaking after the Mori All Blacks loss to Ireland in Wellington on Tuesday night, McMillan gave a strong indication he may have coached the iconic national team for the last time.

McMillan indicated juggling duties as Chiefs head coach and the Mori was increasingly difficult, and that he was no certainty to retain both next year. Further headline fixtures against tier one opposition appeals as the ideal pathway for the Mori to pursue but in a congested rugby calendar their immediate future appears more likely to align with the Pacific Nations Cup.

Losing McMillan, an increasingly influential and respected coaching figure, would be a big loss for the Mori side.

Record: 9/21 (-$19)

The Sauce is officially in a rut, so probably best to steer clear of stacking the house on this week. Expectations for a high scoring affair in Dunedin did not come to fruition. This week, I'm playing it safe with Ireland +14.5 and Queensland in the State of Origin decider +16.5 mutli that will fetch $2.10.

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Liam Napier: The All Blacks' six selection conundrums for series decider - New Zealand Herald