[Follow our live coverage of the Super Tuesday 2020 Primaries as they approach.]
If you pay attention to the news ahead of Super Tuesday, youre likely to hear about a critical bar that the candidates face, a baseline test that could reshape the large field of Democrats seeking the partys nomination.
Its called the 15 percent rule, and heres how it works.
Well, the nomination, of course. To get there, candidates must capture one more than a majority of the 3,979 pledged delegates 1,991, to be precise at the convention this summer in Milwaukee.
During the primaries, the candidates are competing for two major pools of delegates.
One pool, known as at-large delegates, are allocated statewide; another, known as district-level delegates, are awarded by congressional district. In each case, a candidate must win at least 15 percent of the vote to be eligible for those delegates.
Candidates who fall short of the threshold statewide could still win district-level delegates if they capture more than 15 percent of the vote in a congressional district. But in a relatively large field, not everyone will be able to clear that bar in each state or congressional district, and those who dont will be shut out.
The results could be significant in states like California, Super Tuesdays biggest prize. It has 415 pledged delegates 271 apportioned based on the results in the states 53 congressional districts and 144 awarded by statewide vote.
Delegates are distributed proportionally among the candidates who clear the 15 percent cutoff. With as many as six candidates competing on Tuesday, several could pick up delegates, prolonging the race and making it harder for the front-runner to clinch the nomination.
Its very hard for winners to wrap up delegates, said Elaine C. Kamarck, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and the author of Primary Politics: Everything You Need to Know About How America Nominates Its Presidential Candidates.
The system tends to reward not losers, but second-place finishers, and that keeps the race going longer, said Ms. Kamarck, who, as a member of the Democratic National Committee, could play a role in the process, as a superdelegate.
Already, some are concerned that the race could lead to a brokered convention for the first time since 1952, if no candidate hits the magic number of 1,991.
Candidates who fail to clear that bar in a particular state or district cannot win delegates there and are locked out of the most critical part of the nominating contest.
Some could find their paths to the nomination all but blocked, as the cold reality of delegate math overtakes the bluster and spin used to paper over poor showings in early states. As these lower-tier candidates fall further behind in the hunt for delegates, donations could dry up and volunteers may quit.
The 15 percent rule, which was adopted in 1988, was designed to weed out candidates who dont have a viable path to the nomination, Ms. Kamarck said.
You have to shrink this somehow, right? And thats what this was designed to do: Take out the smaller candidates, she said.
The more candidates who fail to clear the threshold, the better it is for those who do. Thats because the votes of the failed candidates are effectively discarded when the delegate count is calculated. The math can significantly bump up the haul for the leading candidates.
For example, if only one candidate were to clear the bar in a given state or congressional district, even if he or she earned just 16 percent of the vote, that candidate would take home all the delegates in that area. If two or more clear the bar, they split the delegates proportionally, with the votes of the failed candidates excluded.
This could play out in powerful ways on Tuesday, when more than 1,300 delegates will be awarded about a third of the total at stake in the entire nominating contest.
For example, a poll released on Friday by the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies found Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont capturing 34 percent of likely voters in Californias Democratic primary.
Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts was the only other candidate to clear the 15 percent threshold, with 17 percent support in the poll. If that were the result on Tuesday, Mr. Sanders might only have to yield a relatively small portion of Californias at-large delegates to Ms. Warren.
This situation gives Sanders an excellent chance of capturing the lions share of the states 415 pledged delegates, the institute said.
See the original post:
How the Democrats 15% Rule Could Reshape the Race on Super Tuesday - The New York Times
- Democrat introduces Alito censure resolution over upside-down flag - The Hill - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- Democrat ruled 'out of order' after listing off Trump's legal woes on the House floor - NBC News - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- A Democrat listed Trump's trials on the House floor. His words were struck from the record. - The Washington Post - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- U.S. House Approves Crypto FIT21 Bill With Wave of Democratic Support - CoinDesk - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- Names and faces - Arkansas Online - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- Democrat Punished On House Floor For Accurately Saying Trump Is On Trial - HuffPost - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- Democrats See Wins in Losing Votes - The New York Times - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- Why is Trump rallying in the heavily Democratic Bronx? - Spectrum News NY1 - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- Democrats propose ban on officials receiving payments from foreign governments after Trump probe - The Associated Press - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- Senate Democrats will force Republicans to vote on federal contraception protections - NBC News - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- Democrats refer 'big oil' investigation to Justice Department - Roll Call - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- Senate Democrats revive bipartisan border security bill as GOP vows to block it again - NBC News - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- Bynum's primary win boosts Democrats' chances to flip Oregon seat - Roll Call - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- Trump targets Democratic stronghold with Bronx rally to woo minority voters - KEYE TV CBS Austin - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- Detroit could be without Black representation in Congress again with top candidate off the ballot - The Associated Press - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- Orangeburg County: Three Democrats running for coroner - The Times and Democrat - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- The Path to a Democratic Majority Rests In the Hands of AAPI Voters - Newsweek - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- Biden and Democrats raised $51 million in April, far less than Trump and the GOP's $76 million - The Associated Press - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- Ohio Democrats still trying to get Biden on ballot - 10TV - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- Trump trial judge rebuked for donations to Democrat-aligned groups in 2020 - The Guardian US - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- UA track teams treating first round like finals | Arkansas Democrat Gazette - Arkansas Online - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- DEBRIEF: Democratic National Convention in Chicago this August - WBAY - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- Some Democrats campaigning for Senate want to suspend the filibuster to pass abortion bills - The Associated Press - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- Election results Georgia: Democratic, Republican primary wins - USA TODAY - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- Israel to return seized camera, hardware to AP | Arkansas Democrat Gazette - Arkansas Online - May 23rd, 2024 [May 23rd, 2024]
- Sen. Chris Murphy urges Democrats to follow Tom Suozzi and go on the offensive on the border - NBC News - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- New Mexico's Democrat-led House rejects proposal for paid family and medical leave - The Seattle Times - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- Democrats see 2024 blueprint in N.Y. election that centered on immigration - The Washington Post - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- Democrats cheer New York win as good omen for November. But is it enough to calm anxiety over Biden? - The Associated Press - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- Leaning Into Migrant Woes, Suozzi Paves Election-Year Path for Democrats - The New York Times - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- New York Special Election Live Results: Tom Suozzi Wins George Santos's Seat - The New York Times - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- Democrats win another special election, and 4 more takeaways from New York's House race - ABC News - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- NY Special Election Winner Tom Suozzi to Fill Santos Seat - Bloomberg - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- Democrat Suozzi wins special election to replace Santos in New York - NPR - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- New House lines in New York would boost 2 Democrats and a Republican - POLITICO - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- Democrats win back George Santos seat in hotly contested election - POLITICO - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- Democrats and Republicans hold Black History Month celebrations with an eye on November's election - The Associated Press - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- NY-03 Special: Four Takeaways from Suozzi and Democrats' Decisive Win - The Cook Political Report - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- New York special election results: The Democrats flipped George Santos' old seat. But here's the real story. - Slate - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- West Virginia bill defining gender is transphobic and 'political rubbish,' Democrats say - The Associated Press - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- Biden isn't leaving the 2024 race, but how would Democrats pick a nominee if he did? - ABC News - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- Proposed TikTok ban dies in Virginias Democratic-controlled House - The Hill - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- Opinion | Tom Suozzi Makes the Democrats Look Good for a New York Minute - The New York Times - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- Tom Suozzi buoyed by higher Democratic turnout, decline in GOP voting - Newsday - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- We asked young Black voters about Biden and the Democrats. Here's what we learned - NPR - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- New York Special Election: Tom Suozzi Wins House Seat Vacated by George Santos - The New York Times - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- Democrat Tom Suozzi to replace republican George Santos in U.S. House of Representatives - 13newsnow.com WVEC - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- Who is Tom Suozzi, Democrat in New York's special election - The Washington Post - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- Democrat Tom Suozzi wins special election to fill George Santos's House seat. Here's why it matters beyond New York. - Yahoo News - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- Democrat Wins Special Election for George Santos' House Seat Mother Jones - Mother Jones - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- Not an Ordinary Special Election, and Yet a Typical Result - The New York Times - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- Trump slams Democrat Nikki Haley on home turf ahead of South Carolina primary: Shes finished - Washington Examiner - February 14th, 2024 [February 14th, 2024]
- Senate Democrat calls GOP hostage-taking in debt ceiling deal making dangerous: This cannot be the norm - The Hill - May 30th, 2023 [May 30th, 2023]
- Scoop: Dems told to say debt ceiling bill rejects GOP's "extreme demands" - Axios - May 30th, 2023 [May 30th, 2023]
- Debt Ceiling Is First Big Test for Hakeem Jeffries, the Top House Democrat - The New York Times - May 30th, 2023 [May 30th, 2023]
- Does the debt deal have enough GOP support? This Democratic senator says he's worried. - POLITICO - May 30th, 2023 [May 30th, 2023]
- Delbert the Democrat and his friends in the liberal media - leader-call.com - May 30th, 2023 [May 30th, 2023]
- Why I believe RFK Jr. will be the 2024 Democratic nominee - The Hill - May 30th, 2023 [May 30th, 2023]
- Republican blitz on LGBTQ issues exposes fractures among Texas ... - The Texas Tribune - May 30th, 2023 [May 30th, 2023]
- Texas Passes Bills Targeting Elections in Democratic Stronghold - The New York Times - May 30th, 2023 [May 30th, 2023]
- The Rise of Religious 'Nones' Won't Save Democrats - New York Magazine - May 30th, 2023 [May 30th, 2023]
- Democrats trade insults over bill at committee meeting - Spectrum News NY1 - May 30th, 2023 [May 30th, 2023]
- Kentucky Democrat Who Lost Bid to Unseat McConnell Fined $10K ... - Heritage.org - May 30th, 2023 [May 30th, 2023]
- Mississippi Democrats improperly excluded candidate for governor ... - The Associated Press - May 30th, 2023 [May 30th, 2023]
- Asian voters in the U.S. tend to be Democratic, but Vietnamese ... - Pew Research Center - May 30th, 2023 [May 30th, 2023]
- Gilbert, Mesa lawmakers unimpressed with Democrat's reason for ... - Daily Independent - May 30th, 2023 [May 30th, 2023]
- Former Republican and Democratic Governors from Alabama ... - Death Penalty Information Center - May 30th, 2023 [May 30th, 2023]
- 3 Tennessee Democrats face removal from office in Thursday vote after gun control protest on state House floor - CNN - April 6th, 2023 [April 6th, 2023]
- Democrat or Republican: The Official Differences | Merriam-Webster - March 31st, 2023 [March 31st, 2023]
- Truck driver who upset top N.J. Democrat in 2021 faces GOP primary challenge in big election year - NJ.com - March 31st, 2023 [March 31st, 2023]
- A top Democrats radical plan to deal with Trumps worst judge and protect abortion rights - Vox.com - February 20th, 2023 [February 20th, 2023]
- About the Democratic Party - Democrats - February 7th, 2023 [February 7th, 2023]
- Democratic Party (United States) - Simple English Wikipedia, the free ... - February 2nd, 2023 [February 2nd, 2023]
- Democrat NYC Mayor Adams calls on federal government to play more proactive role to secure border - Fox News - January 17th, 2023 [January 17th, 2023]
- Democratic Rep. Jamie Raskin announces he has 'serious but curable form of cancer' - CNN - December 28th, 2022 [December 28th, 2022]
- Sen. Sinema's switch to Independent will not impact Democrats' control of the chamber, representatives say - CNBC - December 12th, 2022 [December 12th, 2022]
- 'People are fed up': As NC Democrats reflect on election missteps, a party shake-up is underway - WRAL News - December 12th, 2022 [December 12th, 2022]
- What is a Democrat? (with pictures) - Historical Index - November 23rd, 2022 [November 23rd, 2022]
- This is the late message some Democrats believe could make a difference in close elections - CNN - November 1st, 2022 [November 1st, 2022]
- Dylan Roberts in his words: The Democrat running for a seat in Senate District 8 promises to focus on living affordability, the environment and rural... - October 25th, 2022 [October 25th, 2022]