Illinois provides the Democrats with a Midwestern base: The Flyover – cleveland.com

Its the holidays, which means you need something long to read while lounging around the house. Luckily, were taking a break from the news to give you an in-depth look at each of the Flyover states as we head into 2020. With the help of cleveland.com data guru Rich Exner, weve compiled all sorts of facts and figures from the past two elections to really understand whats happening on the ground in our seven states.

Today we head to Illinois. Heres where you can find our write-ups about Indiana, Wisconsin and Ohio.

The largest of the Flyover states, Illinois also happens to be one of the largest Democratic strongholds in the country. The home state of former President Barack Obama is bolstered by Chicago, the third largest metro area in the country.

Considering the term Chicago politics is now an epithet against Democratic machine politics, its pretty safe to say that you can put this one in the D column for 2020. The state hasnt voted for a Republican for president since George H.W. Bush in 1988 (though notably voted for Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984 as well). Democrats control all branches of state government, including supermajorities in both the state House and Senate.

Its not just voting trends, either. Chicago has served as a sort of Midwest epicenter for the anti-President Donald Trump movement. It was in Chicago that Trump was forced to shut down a rally after protesters shouted him off stage. And its no wonder why. Perhaps no city in America is Trumps favorite punching bag more than Chicago a feud that likely started over his downtown hotel there.

Oh, and you cant forget the corruption, including a sweeping probe going on right now. Former Gov. Rod Blagojevich, a Democrat, is currently sitting in prison possibly awaiting a Trump pardon. Former Gov. George Ryan, a Republican and Blagojevichs predecessor, got out of prison in 2013.

Nevertheless, the state is often much more competitive than people give it credit for. Since 1990, three of the last six governors have been Republicans, though the latest only served one term. In the 2020 elections, the importance of Illinois actually lies in several of its congressional districts, which could play a key part in determining who wins the House.

Illinois is the largest of all the Flyover states, but is also the only one that has shrunk since 2012, meaning it will almost certainly lose a congressional seat after redistricting in 2020.

The full set of data can be found here.

2010: 12,830,602

2012: 12,884,119

2016: 12,826,195

2018: 12,741,080

Net change: -89,552

Net change in Flyover states: 724,790

U.S. change: 18,421,896

Percentage change: -0.70%

Flyover percentage: 1.17%

U.S. percentage: 5.97%

Voting age citizens 2012: 8,934,979

Voting age citizens 2016: 9,038,458

Voting age citizens 2018: 9,074,766

Net change: 139,787

Flyover change: 950,932

U.S. change: 13,557,146

Percentage change: 1.56%

Flyover percentage: 2.07%

U.S. change: 6.16%

Illinois is the most diverse of the Flyover states, largely anchored by Chicago. It is the only Flyover state that closely resembles the United States as a whole, demographically speaking. In fact, it is slightly more diverse than the U.S. overall.

The full set of data can be found here.

White: 71.7%

Flyover median: 81.0%

U.S.: 72.2%

Black: 14.1%

Flyover median: 11.2%

U.S.: 12.7%

Asian: 5.6%

Flyover median: 2.8%

U.S.: 5.6%

Other or multi-race: 8.6%

Flyover median: 5.2%

U.S.: 9.5%

Hispanic: 17.3%

Flyover median: 6.9%

U.S.: 18.3%

Foreign Born: 14.1%

Flyover median: 5.5%

U.S.: 13.7%

Median age: 38.3

Flyover median: 39.5

U.S. median: 38.2

Illinois is far and away the most educated of the Flyover states. It has a higher rate of high school graduation, bachelors degrees and professional degrees for residents aged 25 and up than the country as a whole. It also has, by far, the highest median family income of Flyover states.

The full set of data can be found here.

High school degree or higher (25+): 89.5%

Flyover median: 91%

United States: 88.3%

Bachelors or higher (25+): 35.1%

Flyover median: 29.6%

United States: 32.6%

Graduate or professional degree (25+): 14.0%

Flyover median: 11.1%

United States: 12.6%

Median family income: $81,313

Flyover median: $76,068

United States: $76,401

When we decided to put together this list, we wanted to look at the jobs and unemployment figures around the time of the presidential election. Illinois was hit harder during the recession, with unemployment climbing to the highest of any Flyover state and higher than the U.S. unemployment rate. Its recovery was also slower, in terms of job growth, from 2013-2017. But since 2017, Illinois has outpaced its neighbors in terms of job growth.

The full set of data can be found here.

Jan. 2013 jobs: 5,782,000

Jan. 2017 jobs: 6,043,000

Oct. 2019 jobs: 6,192,300

2013-2017 change: 261,000

Illinois percentage change: 4.5%

Flyover percentage change: 5%

U.S. percentage change: 7.7%

2017-2019 change: 149,300

Illinois percentage change: 2.5%

Flyover percentage change: 1.9%

U.S. percentage change: 4.3%

Jan. 2013 unemployment: 9.2%

Flyover median: 7.9%

U.S. rate: 8%

Jan. 2017 unemployment: 5.3% (-3.9)

Flyover median: 4.9

U.S. rate: 4.7% (-3.3)

Oct. 2019 unemployment: 3.9% (-1.4)

Flyover median: 3.9%

U.S. rate: 3.9% (-0.8)

As I said at the top of this edition, Democrats have a stranglehold on Illinois state government. Led by House Speaker Michael Madigan, they have supermajorities in both chambers. Now-Gov. J.B. Pritzker, a Democrat and one of the richest men in the state, ousted former Gov. Bruce Rauner, a Republican and also one of the richest men in the state, in 2018. Democrats hold the rest of the statewide offices as well, though with more ebb and flow between parties in the past decade.

Sens. Dick Durbin and Tammy Duckworth, both Democrats, represent the state in the U.S. Senate. Durbin is Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumers top deputy. The 18 members of Congress are split 13-5 in favor of Democrats, largely due to heavy partisan gerrymandering. Illinois is also home to Rep. Cheri Bustos, head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

President Barack Obama easily won the state in 2012 by 884,000 votes. Illinois was the only Flyover state where Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump in 2016, which she did by a 944,000-vote margin.

Democrats have won the U.S. House vote every year since 2012 by anywhere from 100,000 to 500,000 votes, though the delegation has fluctuated. However, in 2018 the blue wave overtook much of the state, with Democrats winning the U.S. House vote by more than 1,000,000 votes, picking up two seats in the process.

The full set of data can be found here.

2012 presidential election margin: D, 884,296

Flyover: D, 1,847,011

U.S.: D, 4,982,291

2016 presidential election margin: D, 944,714

Flyover: R, 251,345

U.S.: D, 2,868,686

2012 Illinois congressional vote margin: D, 535,884

Flyover: D, 539,951

Continued here:

Illinois provides the Democrats with a Midwestern base: The Flyover - cleveland.com