Monthly Archives: September 2020

A top Washington analyst weighs the risks of antitrust actions against Big Tech – CNBC

Posted: September 15, 2020 at 3:08 pm

Paul Gallant, managing director of the Cowen Washington Research Group

H/O: Paul Gallant

A View from the Top is a Q&A series exclusively available onCNBC Pro. CNBC reporters will regularly speak with a business leader about decision-making, investing and industry news.

It's still anyone's guess whether and when U.S. law enforcement will bring antitrust charges against the nation's Big Tech companies, but Paul Gallant, a managing director of the Cowen Washington Research Group, has been trying to determine the odds.

Gallant has been closely tracking the tech scrutiny ofAmazon, Apple, Facebook and Google parent Alphabet as federal and state enforcers probe their businesses for potential violations of the U.S. antitrust laws. Along the way, he's analyzed the likelihood of enforcement action against the four giants. In a November report, Gallant and his colleagues predicted the chances of antitrust lawsuits from federal or state enforcers depending on the outcome of the 2020 presidential election. What they found was:

Gallant's prediction that Google will face an antitrust lawsuit may soon pan out. The New York Times and Washington Post reported that Attorney General William Barr is pushing the Antitrust Division to announce a case against Google by the end of the month.

In a late August interview, Gallant said certain factors could still change the calculus of his predictions for the other tech companies. Epic Games' recent lawsuit against Apple alleging anti-competitive behavior, for example, could turn the tide against the smartphone maker if the suit serves as a "catalyst" for other opponents to air their own grievances, Gallant said.

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Feds can’t scapegoat Google and Big Tech as anti-trust targets forever – New York Post

Posted: at 3:08 pm

It seems that every week is a big week for Big Tech these days. Sometimes hitting record highs, sometimes taking a big hit.

But I wouldnt be worried about market jitters. The real Sword of Damocles for Big Tech could come as early as this week, when a supposedly free-market Trump administration could launch a landmark lawsuit against one of the biggest and most successful companies not just in technology, but in any industry ever created on American soil.

The company is Google, the worlds greatest search engine, which has been in the crosshairs of politicians of both parties. Barring something dramatic, it will soon be the target of litigation brought by the Trump Department of Justice and many states attorneys general for alleged antitrust abuses.

Google doesnt fit the classic definition of an antitrust target by costing consumer money its a free service for consumers that makes much of its money on advertising. But what makes Google enticing for class warriors is its size ($1 trillion market cap), massive profitability and omnipotence as everyones favorite search engine, which also allows it to allegedly play dirty.

Its been accused of skewing search results to advertisers and giving top billing to search results that favor progressive political thought, not to mention mining user data for its business.

Given the politics of the moment, Google may be the first, but probably not the last, tech company to get roasted at the hands of the government not for doing anything terribly wrong, mind you, but for simply being too big and successful and the latest whipping boy for politicians in both parties.

Ive seen this before with the banks after the 2008 financial crisis, though at least the banks created the financial crisis that led to the Great Recession some 10 years ago. Big Tech ushered in an economic renaissance and helped keep our economy from falling into another Great Depression during the pandemic.

I say this not as a Pollyanna about tech or any big company using its might to push for laws that benefit its bottom line (see the support Big Tech gave to net neutrality, which was essentially a free ride on cable operators backs). I have no doubt that there are plenty of lefty programmers out there working for Google or Facebook or Twitter who would love to push political commentary that seems to support their wokeness, though for some reason, Im never at a loss for commentary that appeals to my libertarian leanings.

And yes, I worry about my privacy, as any American who read Orwell would about centralized power keeping tabs on us all.

But Google or Facebook or Apple isnt the government; theyre tracking my web searches to sell me stuff, which is why I keep getting ads for chin-up bars and hairy-chest dad-bod hoodies. (I bought one as a birthday gift for my pal and Fox Business colleague Neil Cavuto.)

Sorry, Im more worried about politicians looking for an easy scapegoat to make us all forget the real problems we have to face in the months and years ahead and destroying an American business success story. It doesnt take a Karl Rove political genius to figure out that politicians on both sides of the aisle have screwed up stuff royally during the pandemic, and yet Im supposed to believe a crackdown on Google for showing preferences in its search engine to its advertisers will help cure COVID or get the economy running full steam ahead.

It will obviously do neither, and will make achieving the latter a lot more difficult. A little context: Apple, Amazon, Alphabet (Googles parent), Microsoft and Facebook are the largest companies in the stock market and their strength and size only grew during the pandemic. Tech represents about 12 percent of GDP, and $1.3 trillion in wages, according to Price Waterhouse.

That may make them a monopoly in the eyes of Elizabeth Warren, but it also made them a massive employer, a payer of a lot of taxes and a useful and cheap tool for consumers during a difficult time.

The football season is now upon us, and like many fans of the sport, it couldnt come soon enough for me. But the games number crunchers are worried. COVID forcing many stadiums to go fanless is one concern with football being able to produce decent revenues this season. So are plans by the NFL to politicize the game.

I spoke with some football business executives and heres how they broke down the leagues difficult finances in 2020. Football is a $16 billion-a-year sport, with about $8 billion of its revenues coming from television rights, according to John Tatum, CEO of the Dallas-based Genesco Sports Enterprises.

So keeping decent television ratings is key. The lack of excitement from the crowds will likely turn away some viewers. Another likely turnoff: Decisions by the NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell to embrace social-justice slogans on the field and even on helmets as the season opens this week.

Football fans may be all in on social justice, but if history is any guide, they also hate politics being part of the game. The last time the NFL embraced political messaging, with widespread kneeling by players, TV viewership fell dramatically. But at least the league had fans in the stands to make up the difference.

Which means woke football could be a money-losing proposition.

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The tide turns on the perception of China – Brunswick News

Posted: at 3:08 pm

Im more anti-China than you!

Thats a new theme of this election.

Joe Biden says, We will never again be at the mercy of China! Donald Trump replies, China would own our country if Joe Biden got elected!

Its strange to hear competition, because just a few administrations ago, presidents were eager to celebrate China. A future of greater trade and growth and human dignity is possible! said George W. Bush. Bill Clinton praised Chinas positive change and great progress.

What changed? Thats the subject of my new video.

Presidents Clinton and Bush were excited about China because its dictators had finally opened up Chinas economy. They got rid of price controls, broke up collective farms, allowed foreign investment and privatized state-run business. China, suddenly, prospered.

People were so happy to finally see China being set on this path, says Melissa Chen, who reports on China for the Spectator. The reforms lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty for the very first time.

Then, three years ago, Xi Jinping got himself named president for life.

He cracked down on speech, even jokes. After someone noted his resemblance to Winnie the Pooh, all mentions of the character were deleted from Chinas internet.

I had thought the internet couldnt be censored. Bill Clinton said it would be like trying to nail Jell-O to the wall.

The Chinese figured out how to nail Jell-O to the wall, says Chen. They built an almost perfectly walled-in internet.

China does this by employing a million censors. They block Google, Facebook, Twitter and most Western news media. A few computer-savvy Chinese citizens use forbidden apps to get around the censorship, but most dont get to see the same internet that we see. People caught accessing banned sites are punished. Police may barge into your home, threaten your family or just restrict your choices.

You cant make doctors appointments, explains Chen. You cant travel... theyll block you from buying a train ticket or a plane ticket.

Life is far worse for religious minorities such as the Muslim Uighurs. The government is waging cultural genocide against them.

About a million Uighurs are locked up in reeducation camps, sometimes for years, says Chen. Their family never hears back from them.

China wont allow reporters near the camps, but drone footage shows rows of blindfolded people with their heads shaved and their hands tied behind their backs.

Radio Free Asia adds that Chinas reeducation methods even include having Chinese men replace the Uighur men in families. They come in and live with a family (and) sleep in the same bed as the wife, says Chen.

In short, todays China is, once again, a vicious communist dictatorship.

So, Im amazed to watch American protesters and hear them say, America is the worlds biggest problem.

Even a recent New York Times editorial board member wrote that it was difficult to know whether the United States is better, worse, or the same as China.

That equivalence is bonkers, replies Chen. There should be no doubt about the moral equivalence between the two countries.

For one thing, we Americans are free to criticize our government.

You can hold up a sign at a protest, saying, Screw Donald Trump; the United States sucks! explains Chen. You cannot do anything remotely similar in China.

People in Hong Kong tried. Millions attended protests, often waving American flags. Chen says it shows they have a hankering for American values. They crave this freedom that we take for granted.

Now they, too, have been silenced by Chinas government.

The American protesters who carry democratic socialism banners and wave Communist flags (Soviet Communists used to call people like them useful idiots) should know what people in Hong Kong know: Socialism leads to real government oppression.

Why would Americans want this? asks Chen. Why would they be waving these Communist flags, wanting socialism?

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Why big tech stocks can weather the storm – Financial Times

Posted: at 3:08 pm

Calling a market top has wrongfooted pundits through the ages, but this weeks first correction in large US tech stocks since March has stirred the debate again.

Given the outsized influence that tech names and other growth stocks hold over the S&P 500 blue-chip index, their performance from here matters greatly for the broader equity market and for any investors tracking Wall Street with exchange traded funds.

Recent buyers of big tech stocks, alongside retail punters and institutions involved in speculative equity call option activity, are enduring the most heat at the moment. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index has taken a hit and measures of market volatility remain elevated. A further shake-out of option trades means stocks are likely to remain choppy. To add to the mix, US presidential and congressional elections are just weeks away.

So far this has not rattled broader investor sentiment too badly. Fund managers largely agree that the market had been in need of a healthy correction to blow some of the froth off Big Tech and provide a fresh buying opportunity at more attractive prices.

This attitude also reflects a level of comfort among tech investors. A buyer of the March low in the Nasdaq 100 a bet which appears to have been led by hedge funds at the expense of other traditional managers holds a gain of nearly 60 per cent, even after the latest bout of selling. Investment portfolios that have ridden the tech and growth stock juggernaut for much of the past decade, and particularly from early 2016, have a far bigger cushion to soften short-term blows.

One big problem for those keen to bet on a bigger tech correction: what is the alternative? Tech still offers solid growth prospects and the potential for a significant return on equity. It still looks good for a while yet, reflecting the acceleration of digital trends for business, education and households in the wake of the pandemic. The premium for owning best-in-class stocks is arguably justified, given a business cycle supported by low interest rates and modest inflation pressure over the next few years.

Even in the event of a vaccine for Covid-19 arriving, shifts in behaviour inspired by the pandemic will keep rewarding innovation and disruption qualities that define tech companies.

Still, elevated valuations require vindication in the form of robust earnings growth over the coming quarters.

Before the latest wave of selling, the tech herd had effortlessly propelled price-to-earnings multiples a common valuation measure for equity leaders and the Nasdaq 100 into the danger zone associated with the dotcom bubble. For example, the US equity team at Citigroup calculates that once lower corporate tax rates are factored into valuations, the top 10 US tech companies are trading at a trailing 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 75 times, almost precisely in line with the turn of the century.

It is natural, therefore, to draw comparisons with the crashes that followed other market peaks, particularly those of 2000 and 2007. But those market heights were followed by a protracted decline in earnings growth over ensuing quarters, whereas the hit from the pandemic appears less extensive. Wall Street analysts expect a recovery during the second half of 2020 that gains momentum into 2021.

The safest bet, perhaps, is for a middling performance from here. Aside from valuation concerns, certain tech names with strong business models may have to contend with a stronger antitrust regulatory line from governments in the coming months. The prospect of higher corporate taxes and even levies on windfall profits is serious.

But here is what keeps Wall Street bulls going: Unless earnings decline noticeably and prove high valuations wrong, stocks do not drop in any persistent way, observes Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek.

And of course, the interest-rate environment of 2020 is unprecedented. True, the Nasdaq 100 trades around a hefty 40 times earnings for the next 12 months, according to the CME Group. But turn that PE ratio upside down to get the earnings yield for these stocks, at 2.5 per cent. Unlike 2000, this proxy measure of returns sits well above the current 1.4 per cent on offer from the 30-year Treasury bond.

That makes it hard to call time on big tech and the equity growth bull run. A meaningful decline would require a profound shift in well-established economic and financial trends. It would also require a break in monetary policy that few consider to be realistic. Ultimately, other sectors of the stock market will play catch-up with tech only when there is evidence of a broader economic recovery and the rekindling of inflation pressure. Dont hold your breath.

michael.mackenzie@ft.com

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Why big tech stocks can weather the storm - Financial Times

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The six biggest tech stocks have lost more than $1 trillion in value in three days – CNBC

Posted: at 3:08 pm

The six biggest tech stocks have lost more than $1 trillion over the last three days alone, but it's really just a dent coming off a huge rally that peaked last week.

Apple, which hit a $2 trillion market cap on Aug. 19, is down about $325 billion in that time period. Microsoft's down $219 billion, Amazon fell $191 billion, Alphabet cratered by $135 billion, and Tesla, which fell 21% on Tuesday to mark its worst single-day loss in its history, is down $109 billion in the last three days. Finally, Facebook is off by $89 billion.

"In general, if you think about the market cap loss over the last 3 days for Apple, it's about $325 billion. To help put that in perspective, that's about 1.5 Salesforces, and equivalent to Apple's projected revenues for the next calendar year," Jefferies' Jared Weisfeld told CNBC's "Fast Money" on Tuesday.

Despite the huge number, it's worth keeping in perspective given the tech giants' massive rise in value this year.

At the beginning of 2020, the six largest tech companies were worth about $5 trillion. On Wednesday, Sept. 2, they peaked with a value of $8.2 trillion. After Tuesday's close, they have a combined market cap of $7.1 trillion. While it's a big loss over a few days, these six companies are still worth $2.1 trillion more than they were at the beginning of the year -- despite the global coronavirus pandemic and record job losses in the U.S.

"I certainly haven't sensed any panic with clients and investors I've spoken with over the past couple of days... but no doubt about it the large cap tech has led us lower and today's action was certainly dramatic evidenced by Apple dropping below the $2 trillion market cap," Weisfeld said.

CNBC"s Robert Hum contributed to this report.

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LINDLEY: I Fled Tyranny Once; Now It Has Followed Me To America – The Hayride

Posted: at 3:08 pm

Immigrants who have lived under true communism know a thing or two about government oppression. We know what its like to live in fear of absolute authoritarian rule. We know the pain of surrendering your liberty for the sake of the socialist collective. We know how it feels to have no future, no matter how hard you try to improve your life.

Those of us who were lucky enough to escape to the U.S. have also learned that the American Dream is very real. Or at least it used to be.

After years of studying and hard work, I achieved my own American Dream by becoming a family physician. As a mother of five, a small business owner, and a proud member of the school board, I was convinced that the best days for me and my family were yet to come.

In retrospect, I should not have been so quick to take my newfound liberties for granted.

The COVID-19 pandemic, while medically devastating, has become a social disaster for this country. For the past few months, I have been shocked to witness how more and more Americans are willingly surrendering their civil liberties to the government, doing everything that the state tells them to do in the name of public health.

I understand that extraordinary events and tragedies often require us to take extraordinary action. This country, after all, retooled its entire economy to help defeat Nazi Germany in WWII. Every single American understood the importance of fighting a common enemy, and giving our brave soldiers the tools that they needed to win. But does this pandemic really rise to the same level as a world war? Where will our political leaders draw the line between a recommendation and a mandate? If this virus lingers for years, will we ever see our liberties restored?

Of course, there are some Americans who are noticeably exempt from the rules and regulations that the rest of us have to follow. For the past four months, radical socialists have organized riots in some of our countrys largest cities, disobeying social gathering protocols while breaking long-established laws. Remarkably, the leaders of most Democrat-run cities in America were reluctant to criticize this political movement, even when these so-called protests resulted in violence, looting, and death.

Many schools and businesses across the country, meanwhile, remain closed because local authorities are determined to stop the spread of the coronavirus. When has a social cause become more important than educating our children or feeding our families?

Every morning, I wake up and wonder how many insignificant rights we will lose today, from not being allowed to eat inside a restaurant in Philadelphia, to not being able to go to the gym in New Jersey, to not being able to go to church in California. Every morning, I am briefly reminded of my life in Yugoslavia, and how eerily familiar America is becoming to my former homeland.

Luckily, President Trump the same man who has been repeatedly portrayed as an authoritarian by the mainstream press has steadfastly resisted the urge to exploit the crisis for the sake of obtaining power. Time and again, he has encouraged local leaders to safely reopen their economies, and loosen other needless restrictions that have proven to be ineffective.

Despite the fact America is heading down a dark path at the moment, I still believe that this magnificent country has a bright future. I hope and pray that the American people remember their history, recognize the threat of unlimited government authority, and choose to defend their civil liberties this November.

Dr. Katrina Lindley, DO is a family medicine physician in Brock, Texas

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LINDLEY: I Fled Tyranny Once; Now It Has Followed Me To America - The Hayride

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Big Tech wants a bigger pie in India, but it just can’t seem to bypass Mukesh Ambani – Economic Times

Posted: at 3:08 pm

By Ari Altstedter and P R SanjaiBig Tech is clamoring for a bigger piece of Indias booming internet space, but that increasingly seems to mean going through the countrys richest man, Mukesh Ambani.

Ambanis Reliance Industries Ltd. is said to be offering to sell a stake of about $20 billion in its retail business to Amazon.com Inc., Bloomberg News reported this week. If Ambani succeeds in pulling off such a deal, it would mark another victory for the billionaire, who in recent months has secured $20 billion of investment in his digital unit from marquee names including Facebook Inc. and Google Inc.

The mere possibility of an Amazon investment reveals not only Ambanis market clout, but also how Indias business climate is changing as Prime Minister Narendra Modi cranks up nationalist rhetoric while the nation hurtles toward the first annual economic contraction in 40 years. Having seen multiple regulatory roadblocks thrown in their way, a tie-up with a powerful Indian ally has never looked more crucial for the worlds biggest internet companies. And no business person carries more heft in India -- known for its complicated bureaucracy and red tape -- than Ambani.

Better to CooperateI suspect the government somewhere is signalling that its better for multinational companies to come in with some Indian partner, said Arun Kumar, an economist and the Malcolm Adiseshiah Chair at the Institute of Social Sciences. So Amazon might decide its better to cooperate with Reliance than compete against it.

The 63-year-old Indian tycoon has identified technology and retail as future growth areas in a pivot away from the energy businesses he inherited from his father who died in 2002. Retail is the next frontier for Ambani, whose ambitions include creating a home-grown e-commerce giant like Chinas Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.

Lifes MantraIn one 33-minute address to the nation recently, Modi used the word self-reliance 17 times. The corona crisis has taught us the value of local manufacturing, local markets and local supply chains, Modi went on to say. Local is not only our need it is also our responsibility. Time has taught us that we will simply have to make local our lifes mantra.

Even so, India is increasingly important to Silicon Valley because its a one billion-plus person market thats still largely untapped. China is dominated by homegrown e-commerce players and largely shuts out global tech companies, while established markets in the West offer limited growth opportunities.

Though Amazon is already Indias largest e-commerce player, its ability to compete with domestic firms was hamstrung by an abrupt rule change in 2018 that limited foreign players to operating as e-Bay style marketplaces, rather than selling their own stock.

Entering E-CommerceNot long after, Ambani announced that his own sprawling conglomerate, Reliance Industries, would make an entry into e-commerce, leveraging its control of both Indias largest mobile carrier and biggest network of brick-and-mortar stores.

In response, Amazon tried to bolster its presence on the ground with an investment in Indias second biggest physical retailer, cash-strapped Future Group. But the rules restricting foreign ownership in that sector meant its investment was too little to halt Future Groups slide into financial distress.

Last month, it was Ambani who was waiting to snap up the majority of the companys operations for $3.4 billion. Faced with a regulatory disadvantage and a competitor only seeming to grow stronger, its not hard to see why Amazon might be tempted to make a peace offering now.

Reliance has brick and mortar, logistics, warehousing, and now online build out with its recent deals, said Chakri Lokapriya, chief investment officer at TCG Asset Management in Mumbai. It will take years of operational infrastructure for Amazon or other multinational companies to recreate that, and hence Reliance Industries is the preferred partner choice for their entry into India.

Regulatory LimboFacebook may have made a similar calculation. Its plans to turn its wildly popular WhatsApp messaging platform into a nationwide payments system have been stuck in Indian regulatory limbo for more than two years now.

Meanwhile, Reliance is pushing ahead with its own payment system, with its almost 400 million mobile subscribers as a built-in user base. But since their deal, Facebook and Reliance have announced that WhatsApp will at least be the main platform for Ambanis online grocery store, his flagship e-commerce offering, ensuring the social networking giant has a toehold in the Indian e-commerce market it covets.

Google, meanwhile, has announced plans to roll out a low-cost phone with Ambani which will run on its Android operating system. Previously Ambani had been selling his own low cost phones, which ran on a different operating system. Google, like Facebook, may have decided it was better to work with Ambani than against him. Amazon may wind up doing the same.

Business in India is taking the monopolistic approach, said Mathew Antony, managing partner of Aditya Consulting, a boutique legal advisory firm in Mumbai. It is increasingly becoming evident with the Facebook and similar investment deals that the large foreign business investments into the country is by default having a first right of refusal at the Reliance doors.

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Activists Are Fleeing Hong Kong By Boat To Taiwan – WIBC – Indianapolis News & Politics

Posted: at 3:08 pm

HONG KONG For Ha Sze-yuen, the sea surrounding Hong Kong is more than just a backdrop for sunsets and beaches.

The 73-year old views the ocean as his route to freedom a means of escape from the oppression and poverty of communist China.

On the night of April 16, 1975, Ha and a friend slipped past Chinese border guards and plunged their homemade, inflatable rubber dinghy into the dark water of Shenzhen Bay.

They then started paddling toward the bright lights of Hong Kong, which at the time was still a British colony.

Ha said he had already been caught and jailed three times during previous failed attempts to swim across the water. After the third attempt, he said, guards beat him so badly his mother cried when she saw his wounds.

I was fighting for my freedom, Ha said. I was afraid, but compared to life in China the fear was nothing.

Ha said he and his mother, a school teacher, were persecuted during the Cultural Revolution, a period ofpolitical chaos and violence unleashed by Mao Zedong, due in part to the fact his father had been a Kuomintang military officer who fled Communist rule after his side lost the Chinese civil war.

During the worst decades of Maos rule, thousands of Chinesefled south into Hong Kong.

In photos taken after Has final, successful attempt to make it to the city, the beaming 28-year-old stands looking over Hong Kongs Victoria Harbor, dressed in bell-bottom trousers and a fashionable striped shirt.

But 45 years later, Ha no longer sees this historic port city as a sanctuary.

Now I feel like freedom is being taken away gradually, he said, referring to an ongoing crackdown on political opposition in the city by the government and Chinese authorities, who recently imposed a national security law on Hong Kong, which has further limited space for dissent and left many activists fearing arrest.

The arrests of close to 10,000 anti-government protesters over the past year and the increasing targeting of opposition politicians and activists have created a phenomenon that would have been considered unimaginable to many just a few years ago.

Some Hong Kongers are now taking great risks to flee the city, even choosing to try to smuggle themselves out by sea to Taiwan.

Some Hong Kong activists are starting to see parallels between the current situation and the aftermath of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, when hundreds of mainland Chinese protesters were smuggled by land and sea to Hong Kong via an organized pipeline called Operation Yellowbird. At the time, Hong Kong authorities did not return dissidents to mainland China.

This time, the territory we need to escape from (includes) Hong Kong, and Taiwan becomes the destiny of people, the hope of Hong Kong people, said Eddie Chu, a pro-democracy lawmaker.

Chu plans to resign his position in Hong Kongs Legislative Council, after the citys government recently postponed elections by at least a year on public health grounds.

As authorities crack down on dissent in Hong Kong, a cottage industry of small businesses and organizations supporting the citys protest movement is springing up in Taipei.

Aegis is a coffee shop decorated with giant murals depicting helmeted, goggled protesters as manga-style superheroes. Patrons are welcomed by a so-called Lennon Wall of Post-it notes with handwritten messages like Stand with HK and Free HK, a once-ubiquitous sight in Hong Kong at the height of last years protest movement.

The business employs activists who have fled Hong Kong.

According to the Taiwanese government, the number of Hong Kong residents settling in Taiwan more than doubled during the first six months of 2020, compared to the previous year.

One of the most famous recent emigres is Lam Wing-kee. For years, he ran Causeway Bay Books, a small store in the heart of Hong Kong specializing in sensational works critical of the Chinese leadership.

But in 2015, he and four of his colleagues disappeared from Hong Kong for months only to reappear on Chinese state TV in a televised confession admitting to illegal book trading.

In a 2016 interview with CNN, Lam accused Chinese security forces of kidnapping him to the Chinese mainland and forcing the confession.

Three years later, Lam left Hong Kong for good, and started a new Causeway Bay Books in Taipei.

Taiwan is a lot safer than Hong Kong, Lam said. I left a place where I may lose my freedom to a place where I have freedom.

He spoke to CNN sitting beside the cash register in his shop, where he also sleeps at night to save rent. His desk is draped with a flag bearing the slogan Liberate Hong Kong, Revolution of our Time.

The term has since been declared subversive by Hong Kong authorities, and those who use it could be prosecuted.

CNN has spoken to several frontline protesters who recently fled to Taipei to escape criminal charges in Hong Kong.

One 19-year-old man, who asked not to be identified, said he boarded a commercial flight to Taiwan in January, before the coronavirus pandemic triggered a lockdown.

Its hard for me, said the teenage exile, adding he felt homesick and wanted to return. I still want to (take part in) the political movement (but) theres no room for that in Hong Kong right now.

Other exiles in Taiwan said they had heard of fellow activists trying to escape by sea.

Right now everyone somehow is trapped in Hong Kong, said an older activist, who flew to Taiwan in July 2019 after participating in the storming and vandalizing of Hong Kongs Legislative Council.

I cant think of how we should keep fighting, or what young protesters should be doing now, he added. If we have a chance, we should escape.

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Peace Talks Begin Between Taliban And Afghan Government – NPR

Posted: at 3:08 pm

Abdul Salam Hanafi (right), a member of the Taliban negotiating team, heads to the opening session of peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban in Doha, Qatar, on Saturday. Hussein Sayed/AP hide caption

Abdul Salam Hanafi (right), a member of the Taliban negotiating team, heads to the opening session of peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban in Doha, Qatar, on Saturday.

Afghanistan's warring factions have officially begun what is likely to be a long and arduous process of negotiating a peaceful and prosperous future after nearly two decades of war.

Representatives for the Afghan government and the Taliban met in the capital of Qatar on Saturday to discuss their aspirations and decide on a framework for a lasting peace. The Trump administration paved the way for the negotiations the first direct talks between the two sides when it inked a peace agreement with the Taliban in February.

The talks in the city of Doha come 19 years after al-Qaida killed nearly 3,000 people in the Sept. 11 attacks. The attack was the deadliest act of terror in U.S. history and sparked war in Afghanistan, as the U.S. and its allies overthrew the Taliban regime for harboring the terrorists. But in the years since, Taliban militants have reclaimed control of much of the country.

Several concessions were made to reach today's peace talks. In exchange for a Taliban promise to renounce al-Qaida and prevent terrorist attacks, the U.S. and its allies have promised a complete troop withdrawal from Afghanistan by next spring.

When it signed the peace deal with the Taliban in February, the U.S. had approximately 12,000 military personnel in the country. Officials say the U.S. is on track to reduce its presence to 4,500 troops by the end of November. At its peak, the U.S. had 100,000 troops in the country.

For its part, the Afghan government has promised to release 5,000 Taliban prisoners in exchange for Taliban release of 1,000 Afghan security forces.

Abdul Ghani Baradar, one of the Taliban's founders, said he envisions an Islamic system that embraces all Afghans. At the opening ceremony, he urged patience on both sides.

"The negotiation process may have problems, but the request is that the negotiations move forward with a lot of patience, with a lot of attention, and it should be continued with such kind of attention," he said. "With full honesty, we continue the Afghan peace negotiation, and we try for peace and tranquility, we will pave the ground in Afghanistan."

Abdullah Abdullah, who heads Kabul's High Council for National Reconciliation, said that even if all sides can't agree on every detail, they will be "peace heroes" if they can create a political system based on Islamic principles that preserves the rights of all people.

In a video message to open the negotiations, U.N. Secretary-General Antnio Guterres said the talks present a "major opportunity to achieve the long-held aspirations of the people of Afghanistan for peace."

"Afghans themselves must determine the content and nature of the negotiations," Guterres said. "An inclusive peace process, in which women, youth and victims of conflict are meaningfully represented, offers the best hope of a sustainable solution."

The negotiations will endeavor to establish a framework for a peaceful postwar society after American troops return home. Gender equality and the rights of ethnic and religious minorities will be front and center, as the two sides confront a history of oppression by the Taliban.

The U.S. won't be directly involved in the peace talks. But the U.S. is still willing to offer suggestions for what a postwar Afghanistan could look like. In remarks at Saturday morning's opening ceremony, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo urged the two sides to consider adopting a democratic form of government.

"In the United States, we have found that democracy notably, the principle of the peaceful rotation of political power works best," Pompeo said, according to prepared remarks. "Democratic systems reflect the choices of the majority while protecting the rights of the minority. This model has yielded great peace and prosperity for us and other democratic nations."

The two sides are under heavy pressure from the people of Afghanistan to come to an agreement as quickly as possible. U.S. special adviser Zalmay Khalilzad, who helped facilitate the talks, acknowledged that won't be easy. "There's a lot of mistrust," he told reporters Saturday. "This war has been going on for a long time, and compromise has not been easy historically in Afghanistan."

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Peace Talks Begin Between Taliban And Afghan Government - NPR

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International action against oppression of illegitimate government in Belarus is urgent – thedailynewnation.com

Posted: at 3:08 pm

Friday, September 11, 2020

Thousands of demonstrators gathered in Minsk on Saturday at the spot in the Belarusian capital where a protester died in clashes with police, calling for the country's authoritarian president, Alexander Lukashenko, to resign after 26 years in power. The protests have gone on for one month since the results of the presidential election in which election officials say Lukashenko won a sixth term in office but which is reality were fraudulent.

Despite harsh police action against the protesters, including the detention of 7,000 people, the demonstrations have swelled into the largest and most sustained wave of protest since Lukashenko took power in 1994.

The Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko, has used his first interview since mass protests erupted against his rule to say he does not plan to step down soon. Lukashenko spoke to a group of pro-Kremlin Russian journalists including the editor-in-chief of Russia Today, Margarita Simonyan, and made it clear he plans to fight to cling on to power.

Lukashenko is in power shamelessly by bribing the army and the police for using to suppress the people. He is in power rigging the election and terrorising the people. Against his own people he is inviting Russian military help also.Unfortunately Putin has decided to send in special forces from Russia--perhaps thinking that a friendly dictator is better than a non friendly democratic government, no matter that Lukashenko has no popular legitimacy to remain in power. It is useless talking human rights when one can continue in power with the power of the gun and no popular election.

The main problem for Belarus is that Russia may try to prop up Lukashenko so he can stay in power. He has been able to resist Russian interference for 20 years but the danger is that if Lukashenko realises that he can't stay in power he may encourage Russia to prop him up. Russia has previously used chances like these to annex territory--like it did in 2015 when it annexed the Crimea but may instead help Lukashenko to remain in power. To stick to power for some people is like drug addiction and they will be saved by foreign power to keep their own people as slaves.

So what does the future hold for Belarus--rule under Lukashenko is probably the worst thing which can occur. It is time that Lukashenko realizes that he has outlived his usefulness to the Belarusian people and just go quietly. Oppressing them with his security forces and faking election results for the umpteenth time will not endear him to the people. He must not act like his godfather Putin and cling on to power. He must realize that the people can throw him out and go.

Modern dictators with the support of the army and the police have become too power for the people to change. The people's election is not necessary for government to be legitimate. Only international community can ensure that the government must have popular legitimacy.

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International action against oppression of illegitimate government in Belarus is urgent - thedailynewnation.com

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