Daily Archives: June 6, 2020

Building sufficient financial resources to retire early may sound like a dream, but making that dream come true is not as hard as it may sound. The main thing is simply to save more money each month. No big deal, right? Well ...

The typical rule of thumb given by financial planners is to have a goal of saving up to 20% of total earnings. But if you want to retire when you're younger, that percentage will probably need to be more like 40% to 50% of your income. Of course, that's not so simple since a big part of your paycheck goes to day-to-day, necessary expenses. So if you want to save that much, you need to make some serious lifestyle adjustments. It requires making changes, but it's doable.

A generally new development called Financial Independence, Retire Early (FIRE) has been created around this "sacrifice and over-save now to retire early" idea. FIRE supporters create exacting savings plans (up to 75% of income) and make related compromises like living in small homes, walking to work every day, prohibitive weight control plans, etc. This way might be unreasonably prohibitive for many, yet the mentality offers a few takeaways that may merit consideration.

The first point is to adhere to the key principles of long-term investing, including developing a diversified portfolio that includes stocks with various styles, sizes, sectors and regions.

To speed up the retirement investment cycle, you can build a portfolio structured with more risk - and the potential for higher returns. It should in any case be adequately diversified to safeguard against sharper than normal market downturns that can be hard to recuperate from and that can ruin any opportunity to achieve your early retirement goal. There are various strategies to diversify a portfolio, and how you do so should be guided by your age, your risk appetite, your growth and income needs, and your long-term objectives.

Once you've begun saving at a higher rate and you have an investment plan, put that money to work in your plan as quickly as you can. Don't worry about finding the "perfect time" to invest - simply put the money in and keep it in. Let compounding work to help you grow your retirement savings at an exponential rate.

Growth stocks with low beta, strong earnings estimates, positive sales growth, and expected future growth are an excellent way to determine investable growth stocks for your retirement.

Zacks offers investors useful rankings for lower risk growth stocks for retirement portfolios. The following are a few selections that merit a closer look: Global Medical REIT (GMRE), Clearway Energy (CWEN) and Farmers National Banc (FMNB). Earnings and revenue has seen growth of at least 5% or higher over the last five years, with a beta of 1 or lower.

Do You Know the Top 9 Retirement Investing Mistakes?

Whether you're planning to retire early or not, don't let investing mistakes derail your plans.

If you have $500,000 or more to invest and want to learn more, click the link to download our free report, 9 Retirement Mistakes that will Ruin Your Retirement.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free reportFarmers National Banc Corp. (FMNB) : Free Stock Analysis ReportGlobal Medical REIT Inc. (GMRE) : Free Stock Analysis ReportClearway Energy, Inc. (CWEN) : Free Stock Analysis ReportTo read this article on Zacks.com click here.Zacks Investment Research

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Powerful Proof Anyone Can Invest for an Early Retirement - June 04, 2020 - Yahoo Finance

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New Delhi: The novel coronavirus pandemic continues to devastate several countries across the world the latest count is 67,04,014 cases and more than 3,93,233 deaths.

Regardless of lockdowns across the world, carbon dioxide levels in atmosphere reached a new high in the month of May. Wash your hands advice highlights Asias acute water crisis. Meanwhile, coronavirus is now spreading to previously unaffected areas. The pandemic has also affected Saudi womens quest for financial independence.

ThePrint brings you the most important global stories on the coronavirus pandemic and why they matter.

Regardless of several key global economies enforcing lockdowns to deal with the pandemic, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere hit a record high in the month of May, reports the Financial Times.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide reached more than 417 parts per million on average during May at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, suggesting that even though lockdowns around the world have caused emissions to drop temporarily, warming trends are set to continue. The new record, based on separate measurements taken by US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, is the highest level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere for millions of years, notes the report.

The crisis has slowed emissions, but not enough to show up perceptibly at Mauna Loa. What will matter much more is the trajectory we take coming out of this situation, professor Ralph Keeling of Scripps Institution told FT.

Also read:Covid has shown US is underprepared for major health threats, says national health agency

As the coronavirus curve begins to flatten in Europe and the US, the virus is now spreading to previously unaffected regions in the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia, reports the New York Times.

For months, one enduring mystery of the coronavirus was why some of the worlds most populous countries, with rickety health systems and crowded slums, had managed to avoid the brunt of an outbreak that was burning through relatively affluent societies in Europe and the United States, says the report.

Now this trend has begun to be reversed.

Globally, known cases of the virus are growing faster than ever with more than 100,000 new ones a day. The surge is concentrated in densely populated, low- and middle-income countries across the Middle East, Latin America, Africa and South Asia, notes the report.

Not only has it filled hospitals and cemeteries there, it has frustrated the hopes of leaders who thought they were doing everything right, or who believed they might somehow escape the pandemics worst ravages, it adds.

Wash your hands has been the most common health advice across the world since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus. But this rather simple advice is impractical for nearly 2.4 billion people who reside in water scarce areas, argues an opinion piece in the Nikkei Asian Review.

This problem becomes all the more acute in Asia, where 29 out of 49 countries are water insecure, meaning they do not have access to safe, reliable, available water to meet their health and economic needs.

In South Asia alone, the majority of water sources are contaminated and 558 million people practice open defecation due to insufficient water and sanitation solutions, notes the piece.

Also read:Hows it going: Goldman Sachs executives email calling for racial equality goes viral

On Thursday, Brazil exceeded the number of coronavirus deaths in Italy, and Mexico recorded its highest number of daily deaths, reports Reuters. Meanwhile, other Latin American regional leaders are pushing to end lockdowns and restart economic activity.

Brazil posted a record number of daily deaths for third consecutive day on Thursday, with 1,437 deaths over the last 24 hours and 30,925 additional coronavirus cases, according to data released by the health ministry. Total deaths in South Americas largest nation now stand at 34,021, trailing only the United States and the United Kingdom, notes the report.

Meanwhile, Mexico reported 816 deaths on Thursday, the second consecutive daily record there, while total deaths surpassed 12,000, it adds.

Saudi Arabia facilitated some minor freedoms for the countrys women over the past few years. Now as the coronavirus pandemic takes a toll on the economy, some of these women are struggling to retain their new found financial independence, notes a special report in the Reuters.

Women in the United States and Europe have taken an outsized hit from the wave of unemployment caused by the coronavirus, but for women in Saudi Arabia the downturn is particularly damaging because it struck just as their efforts to enter the workforce and gain greater financial independence were gaining traction, says the report.

Most of these women had found employment in non-religious tourism and entertainment sectors, but these have been badly hit by the pandemic.

Women make up about 83% of the jobless, according to the Saudi statistics office. And its an educated group; 70% of those women have high school diplomas or university degrees. And many were counting on the new sectors such as tourism to provide their entry to the workforce, adds the report.

Also read: Hong Kongs protest movement is running out of cash

For a while, the South African government patted its back for successfully evading the pandemic, but that changed Thursday, when the country recorded 3,267 new cases an 80 per cent jump from its previous daily record, reports The Guardian.

Nearly two thirds of the countrys cases are in the Western Cape province, where Cape Town is the biggest city, and health services are under pressure. The region is also a major tourist destination, and local authorities have implemented one of the most rigorous testing regimes in the country, says the report.

Africas three biggest economies Nigeria, Egypt and South Africa have similar doubling rates the number of days in which their infection numbers double according to Our World In Data, it added.

A new long read by The Guardian looks at the northern Spanish region of La Rioja, where a medieval town suffered one of the worst outbreaks across Europe, and how that has poisoned peoples relations with each other in a tightly knit community.

If Covid-19 increases tensions among neighbours in big cities, it can produce poisonous outbreaks of mistrust in small, more insular places like Santo Domingo, says the report.

NBA: Disney World Resort set to host rest of 2020 season: BBC

Two girls lockdown learning underlines South Africas educational divide: Reuters

Hysteresis means we will have scars after Covid-19: The Financial Times

Is coronavirus changing the world of cleaning?: BBC

Also read:Sydneys open for business again. So where is everybody?

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CO2 levels rise despite lockdown, Asias water crisis and other global Covid news - ThePrint

Nonprofit Dedicated to Breaking the Cycles of Homelessness, Poverty and Domestic Violence Witnesses Outpouring of Support from Individuals, Churches, Civic Groups, Companies and Other Nonprofits During Coronavirus Pandemic

Duluth, Ga., June 4, 2020 When Rainbow Village made the difficult decision to close its Early Childhood Development Center (ECDC) and Afterschool Youth Programs in the wake of the Coronavirus Pandemic in March, the nonprofit organization knew the impact would be felt keenly by its residents. With the purpose of providing the tools, programs and transitional housing needed to lead homeless families back to a place of self-sustainability, Rainbow Village understands that many of its residents rely on the ECDC and Afterschool Program for a safe and engaging place for their kids to go while the parent works, attends college or seeks employment. Following the lead of Gwinnett County Public Schools as it does during inclement weather and other emergency situations, Rainbow Village did not take lightly the effect the closure might have on the families it serves and launched the COVID-19 Family Relief Fund as a precautionary measure. Over the weeks that followed, the North Metro Atlanta community came out to show its overwhelming support for Rainbow Village families, donating food, supplies and an incredible $118,514 for the COVID-19 Family Relief Fund.

We are completely blown away by the way the community came together in support of the families Rainbow Village serves, said Melanie Conner, CEO for Rainbow Village. Girl Scout Troops, churches, neighborhoods, companies and civic groups collected and delivered food and supplies for our families. Im so proud of the way our staff stepped up and rolled with the changes during the last few months, as well as the way our Board of Directors showed their true investment in this campus and the people who call Rainbow Village home. Our residents watched out for one another as friends and neighbors, really putting the village in Rainbow Village. And during it all, we moved in three new families. Its been nothing short of incredible.

Conner also pointed to the donation of computers and Wi-Fi adapters from X-Cel and CentricsIT, which connect to campus-wide Wi-Fi made possible from a grant from the Waffle House Foundation. Those gifts allowed Rainbow Village students to take part in online schooling and adults to work remotely. Fully Furnished Ministries donated furniture for the three new incoming families. And, although the original goal for the Rainbow Village COVID-19 Family Relief Fund was set at $10,000, a number of families came forward with generous matching gifts that inspired others to give. The funds raised will help provide summer programming for Rainbow Village kids, assist with increased summer utility costs in the provision of a safe and comfortable home for families, repair or replace aging appliances, and so much more.

For more information about Rainbow Village and its programs, please visit http://www.rainbowvillage.org.

About Rainbow Village: Established in 1991 and based in Duluth, Georgia, Rainbow Village is a 501(c)3 nonprofit organization devoted to breaking the cycles of homelessness, poverty and domestic violence. Committed to serving as a community of transformation, Rainbow Village applies a holistic, two-generational approach to serving homeless families with children. With the goal of helping families achieve emotional stability and financial independence, Rainbow Village provides housing, early childhood education and after-school care, child and youth programming, financial planning, career counseling, workforce readiness, mental health counseling, community events and more. Rainbow Village accepts applications from homeless families with minor children throughout Georgia. To learn more about Rainbow Village, register as a volunteer or make a donation, visit http://www.rainbowvillage.org.

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Community Comes Together for the Families of Rainbow Village - Atlanta, GA - Patch.com

Ali and Alison Walker have found freedom from building aggressive savings as a financial cushion. Photo: Facebook

The coronavirus crisis and the lack of a reliable job market may lead more people to investigate the FIRE philosophy. That is, Financial Independence, Retire Early.

Two forty-somethings sold their Seattle home, said goodbye to their jobs, and set off on an around-the-world journey in 2018 as part of the FIRE movement. They could not have known the true significance of that decision.

At the time, U.S. markets were still on the upswing and all was well for Ali and Alison Walker.

Then came the coronavirus pandemic. The Walkers investments took a huge hit and they found themselves confined to an Airbnb in San Miguel de Allende, Mexico, because of travel restrictions. They eventually got a flight out, leaving in May instead of March, and documented their adventure online.

The FIRE adherents had solid nest eggs, allowing them financial flexibility at a critical moment, because they had pursued their goals by saving aggressively, according to a profile recently published in Barrons.

We planned for some type of a black-swan event, said Ali, who worked in marketing and business development. We couldnt have planned for the coronavirus, but we assumed there would be a tough bear market or a prolonged down market for one reason or another.

Just as people flocked to the movement in the wake of the 2008 recession, the current crisis may lead yet more people to FIRE strategies.

What part of biggest unemployment spike in history makes you want to be more reliant on your job? says Tanja Hester, author of the book Work Optional and the FIRE blog Our Next Life. Its a huge reminder that workers are expendable, and there isnt a great safety net out there for us.

The Walkers set aside five years of cash to cover their expenses in the case of a sustained downturn and decided on a conservative annual withdrawal rate of 3% of their savings. They also gave themselves plenty of wiggle room in their budget to pare back expenses if needed.

One of the great things about the FIRE movement is that it talks a lot about the different scenarios you should prepare for before deciding to retire, says the 56-year-old Alison, who had worked retouching images for catalogs and corporate clients.

Marcus Miller, a financial planner who specializes in working with FIRE clients, says the philosophy attracts disciplined investors of a cautious mindset. If you take a look at the people who comprise the FIRE movement, its people who often live below their means and have built this war chest to live off of. They may be better equipped to weather a storm like this than the majority of Americans.

Timing is everything, says Matt Ryan, a financial planner at San Diegobased Creative Capital Management Investments. Two months ago, the people who are close to financial independence and retiring may have been pretty close to their goals, he says. But now they may have to adjust their timing.

Grant Sabatier, a personal-finance blogger and author of Financial Freedom: A Proven Path to All the Money You Will Ever Need, said now may be a difficult time to pursue a FIRE lifestyle. But he said that this is a good moment to take the time to understand their values and plan how they want to save, spend and invest in the future.

Use this moment while were all stuck inside to figure out your relationship with money and how to be more intentional about it when this is all over.

Source: Barrons

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Digital nomads stranded in Mexico demonstrate the appeal of the retire-early movement - Yucatn Expat Life

NAPLES Neapolitans Janet and Jerry Belle were recognized for their volunteer and philanthropic work on behalf of The Immokalee Foundation during the Naples Sailing & Yacht Clubs Community Acts of Kindness: Members with a Cause They Love.

The Belles served as co-chairs of the successful Charity Classic Celebration Gala & Golf Tournament in last November, which raised more than $2.5 million to support The Immokalee Foundations career-based programs for the youth of Immokalee.

The Charity Classic events raise the essential funds needed for The Immokalee Foundation to continue serving more than 1,400 Immokalee youth each year with career-based educational opportunities, curriculum and experiences.

Jerry Belle is a member of the board of directors for the foundation and, importantly, has served as a mentor for an Immokalee student the past three years, providing support, encouragement and guidance through weekly 45-minute discussions. Mentoring begins in sixth grade, and students are paired with mentors through high school graduation; 100% of students in The Immokalee Foundations programs graduate from high school and continue to post-secondary educational opportunities, where 91% graduate.

We enjoy supporting the educational programs of The Immokalee Foundation because their programs are impactful and successful, said Jerry Belle. The foundations long history shows that students gain professional careers that lead to financial independence. Its a model that works, and were proud to be involved.

The Immokalee Foundation provides a range of education programs that focus on building pathways to professional careers through support, mentoring and tutoring, and life skills development leading to economic independence. To learn more about The Immokalee Foundation, becoming a mentor, its signature events, volunteering as a career panel speaker or host, making a donation, including the foundation in your estate plans, or for additional information, call 239-430-9122 or visit https://immokaleefoundation.org.

The Immokalee Bulletin is published every Thursday.

You are encouraged to leave relevant comments but engaging in personal attacks, threats, online bullying or commercial spam will not be allowed. All comments should remain within the bounds of fair play and civility. (You can disagree with others courteously, without being disagreeable.) Feel free to express yourself but keep an open mind toward finding value in what others say. To report abuse or spam, click the X in the upper right corner of the comment box.

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Janet and Jerry Belle recognized for their work on behalf of TIF - Immokalee Bulletin

The choice of Tim Davie as the new director general of the BBC is an interesting one: he was once involved in Conservative politics and he comes from the commercial rather than the editorial wing of the corporation.

He will have a lot on his plate. The BBC might think that it has had a good pandemic, and it is true that people do turn to their national institutions at a time of crisis, but its coverage has been accused of hyperbole and political bias, and even if ratings are up they are nowhere near what they once were.

There is a technological challenge: the licence fee was designed for radio and television in an age of limited choice, but now people have dozens of options over several devices. Lord Hall bequeaths one important innovation. BBC iPlayer is probably the wave of the future, eventually financed not by a fee but by a subscription, although many BBC programmes are made out of house and the BBC cannot exercise exclusive rights over them. Hence some of its hits have been made available on Netflix.

On top of that is the costly dilemma the BBC faces over free television licences for the over-75s. A proposed change to the eligibility rules was postponed because of the pandemic.

Appointing a more commercially minded director general suggests a step towards greater financial independence from the licence-fee payer. However, one of the biggest long-term problems the BBC faces is that management does not seem to understand who is watching or listening and what they like, a source of particular frustration to the BBCs older users and those outside London.

Most of us want what the BBC was created to provide: high quality programming, and a service that reflects the entire nation, not just Islington.

Originally posted here:

The BBC's new Director General will have a fight on his hands - Telegraph.co.uk

It has been a long journey for Meghan Markle to return to her roots in Los Angeles. She and husband Prince Harry have kept a low profile in the city after stepping back from royal duties. They had drawn up certain plans to continue with various charity work but never expected the coronavirus pandemic to become a bottleneck. It has forced them to go on the backfoot.

However, the tragic death of George Floyd at the hands of a police officer rekindled the Black Lives Matter movement. That prompted Meghan Markle to voice her opinion on the subject. She chose the electronic medium and gave a virtual commencement speech.

The target audience was the graduates of the Los Angeles high school, Immaculate Heart.

It was her school and she urged the students to vote so that they could become a part of the movement. Incidentally, this is a turning point in her life because it was the first time the British royal family has mentioned about the death of George Floyd. It also brings into focus the global protests to end police brutality and racial injustice.

The Elle quotes Meghan saying - "I wasn't sure what I could say to you.

I wanted to say the right thing. And I was really nervous that I wouldnt, or that it would get picked apart, and I realizedthe only wrong thing to say is to say nothing.

She made a mention of others like Breonna Taylor, Philando Castile, Tamir Rice, and Stephon Clark and said their lives also mattered.

All of them were African Americans in various age groups and while Breonna Taylor was a woman, Tamir Rice was a 12-year-old kid.

The Black Lives Matter movement was an issue personal to Meghan, given the experiences she had gone through. She was outraged over the tragic death of George Floyd at the hands of the police and other similar instances of the past.

In fact, it was important to both her and Harry. Therefore, she decided to give vent to her feelings through a speech. She took the help of Harry and both of them discussed the issue with knowledgeable persons to prepare the groundwork. She wanted to draw attention to police brutality and the Black Lives Matter movement.

The Elle explains that in order to understand the situations, Meghan and Harry interacted with community leaders apart from anybody else who could throw light on the recent events.

They were keen to get a total picture of the happenings that have apparently tarnished the image of the law enforcement agencies.

According to Express UK, the British royal couple is in Los Angeles and continues to be Celebrities. The couple Harry and his wife Meghan Markle had plans to work on their non-profit charity organizations like the Archewell charity but the ongoing coronavirus has played spoilsport.

The two of them are now concentrating on the death of an African American man at the hands of the police. He is George Floyd and the incident has led to protests that have spread to not only cities in America but have gone international. It is against police brutality and racism, it seems Harry and Meghan have held meetings with other like-minded people.

They could get involved with the Black Lives Matter movement. While speaking to students of her school in the city, she recounted her first experience with widespread violence of the 1992 Los Angeles riots. On the issue of George Floyd, people in London gathered for a peaceful protest in Hyde Park while others marched to Downing Street.

Last week, US President Donald Trump had condemned the behavior of protesters. He directed the military to shoot any looters and his comments have added fuel to fire.

When they decided to leave the British royal family and look around for financial independence, Megan and Harry had several ideas in mind. Meghan, the Suits actor, had high expectations from her influential friends with links in Hollywood.

Harry and Meghan Markle expected to explore the options available after becoming non-royals. However, coronavirus has forced them to hit the pause button.

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Meghan and Harry quietly getting involved with the Black Lives Matter movement - Blasting News United States

(Source: Imgflip)

Are you feeling a bit giddy right now? Perhaps even a tad euphoric? No one could blame you if you were, given how red hot the stock market has been over the past few months.

S&P 500 & My Phoenix Portfolio's Top Winners Since March 23rd Low

(Source: YCharts)

Right now what some analysts have dubbed the "hopium" rally, driven in part by TINA (there is no alternative), FOMO (fear of missing out) and QE infinity, has led to some of the highest market valuations in US history.

On Forward P/E Basis, S&P 500 Is Approaching Severe Bubble Territory

(Source: Brian Gilmartin, Reuters/Refinitiv/IBES/Lipper Financial)

How historic is this hopium meltup?

The current record for the most overvalued market in history was set on March 24th, 2000, when the S&P 500 hit a forward P/E of 27.2, 66% above the 25-year average of 16.4.

If the S&P 500 rises just 9.6% more, then it would achieve a forward P/E of 27.3, and set a new record for the most overvalued market in US history.

But just because we're either in a bubble or rapidly approaching one, doesn't necessarily mean the market will necessarily correct soon.

According to research from JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) and Princeton

This is why valuation alone cannot be used to time the market with precision or consistency. What higher valuations do tell us is that future long-term returns are likely to be far smaller.

At the end of May, the forward P/E on the market, by JPMorgan's estimates, correlated to expected five-year returns of near zero.

(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)

If we exclude the Dot-Com bubble, then the 20-year average blended P/E for the S&P 500 has been 17.0, the market-determined fair value for stocks in the modern era.

If earnings grow as expected through 2022 and the market returns to the value hundreds of millions of investors, risking real money, have determined is long-term fair value, then the consensus return potential over the next 2.5 years is about 3% CAGR.

I define a bubble as when forward two to three-year consensus return potential is zero or negative.

So on a blended P/E basis, we're not quite there yet, but we're darn close.

In a market that seems to have lost its senses, and is driven by irrational exuberance and blind hope that nothing bad will happen over the next 2.5 years, why am I still buying stocks?

The Biggest Bubble In US History Still Provided Plenty Of Great Buying Opportunities

(Source: YCharts)

From mid-1998 to March 24th, 2000, quality blue-chips like Realty Income (O) and Berkshire (BRK.B) (NYSE:BRK.A) severely underperformed the market and tech stocks shot to the moon.

Foolish momentum traders (myself included at the time) dreamed of 100% annual returns every year.

As a nine-year-old investing my life savings into the tech bubble at the time, I recall asking my mother, with all earnestness "Where will I invest my trillions in a few years?"

Oh, had I known then the three kinds of risks all equity investors face.

Had I chased not mad dreams of fast fortunes but stuck to a disciplined strategy built on the time-tested principles of true wealth compounding, I would be a multi-millionaire by now. Realty Income in March 2000 was trading at 7X FFO, about 50% historically undervalued at the time. Berkshire was trading at similar discounts to its historical book value.

The world then seemed to abandon all sense of valuation and sound risk management, but history ultimately vindicated the Warren Buffetts of the world.

The Market Can't Stay Irrational Forever

(Source: YCharts)

Normally few stocks go up in a bear market, but when prices become extremely detached from fundamentals, quality blue-chips can indeed rise during a historic market crash.

I'm not counting on anything I buy in the short term to go up in an inevitable market decline. Rather, I am counting on the time-tested principles of quality dividend-paying blue-chips, bought at reasonable to fair valuations, and then held for the long term, to help me achieve my goals of financial independence.

In the coming week, I'm planning on buying small amounts (about $500 in each) of

I buy one good deal or better blue-chip each day, as the "daily Phoenix portfolio buy" announced on the Dividend Kings' chat board three times each day.

Each buy is small, with the goal of gradually building up my cash/bond allocation (28% right now) by about $1000 to $1500 per month, while waiting for an inevitable market downturn.

(Source: Imgflip)

Why these five Phoenix watchlist blue-chips? Because even in this overheated market, they fulfill the goals of prudent long-term income investors.

Fundamental Stats On These 5 High-Yield Blue-Chips

These five blue-chips are some of the highest quality dividend payers in the world, as seen by their average credit rating of A-, stable outlook.

(Source: S&P)

S&P and other rating agencies base ratings on formulas that calculate historical default risk based on initial ratings.

And since bond defaults often result in bankruptcies, these are highly correlated with long-term bankruptcy risk for companies.

(Source: The University of St. Petersburg)

The probability of these five companies going to zero is about 2.5% each. The probability of all five of them going bust within the next 30 years, is about 1 in 102.4 million. Granted that's assuming a normal probability universe, which we don't live in.

But the point is that these five high-yield blue-chips meet all three criteria of prudent long-term income investing.

Think I'm being overly bullish about those probability-weighted estimates? Take a look at these companies' consensus return potentials through 2022.

That's estimated by taking the 2022 EPS consensus and assuming each company returns to its long-term, historical market-determined fair value multiple during periods of similar fundamentals and growth rates.

(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research) Now compare that to the S&P 500, and the horrible consensus return potential investors just buying the broader market, blind to dangerous valuations, might see in the short term.

S&P 500 2020 Consensus Total Return Potential

(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)

S&P 500 2021 Consensus Return Potential

(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)

S&P 500 2022 Consensus Return Potential

(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)

In case you think that "this time is different" and that the market's earnings multiple will be permanently higher due to low-interest rates, and future debt-fueled stock buybacks, consider this.

Since 2009 we've had all the same conditions that are expected to continue in the future.

What was the market-determined fair value blended P/E during this time? 19? 20? 25?

Average Blended P/E Over Last 11 Years Was 17.0, Exactly The Same As The 20-Year Average

(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)

Low-interest rates and copious buybacks didn't inflate the market-determined fair value of stocks above its long-term modern era historical norm, and likely won't do so in the future either.

Now compare the S&P 500 on the 3 goals of prudent long-term income investors.

(Source: Imgflip)

The goal of prudent long-term investing is generating sufficient returns and income to achieve your personal goals while taking the least amount of risk possible.

Am I claiming that AbbVie, Scotiabank, Bank of Montreal, Philip Morris, and MDU Resources are going to keep rocketing higher as they have in the past few months?

These 5 Stocks, S&P and Dividend Aristocrats Since March 23rd

(Source: YCharts)

Of course not, that was potentially a bear market low. The short-term gains you see after bear market lows are, in the words of Ben Carlson, "epic face-ripping rallies."

However, I've not focused on the short term.

My long-term goal is achieving financial independence with quality companies, run by competent and trustworthy management, that are paying me generous, safe, and steadily growing income in all economic and market conditions.

Dividend Sensei's Real Money Phoenix Portfolio Bucket

(Source: Morningstar) -28% cash/bond allocation not shown

Like my fellow Dividend King, Nick Ward, I divide my retirement portfolio into buckets. This is my Phoenix bucket, made up entirely of Dividend Kings Phoenix Portfolio daily buys that we make each day.

The official DK Phoenix portfolio is run using these risk-management guidelines, and my overall retirement portfolio is as well.

In a world of unprecedented pandemic, economic and earnings uncertainty, with risks to the market rising on a daily basis, I sleep very well at night knowing my hard-earned savings are entrusted to the skilled management at these financially strong companies.

Is a market downturn coming at some point? You better believe it.

Will I lose sleep when it arrives? No, because my long-term financial goals don't rely on luck, but uses sound and time-tested risk-management and long-term investing principles to create my own luck.

(Source: AZ Quotes)

In 24 years of investing experience, I've learned what doesn't work, trying to get rich quickly.

In 6.5 years as an analyst, I've learned what does work, which is making, in the words of Charlie Munger, "consistently not stupid" decisions.

(Source: imgflip)

Let the market blow its hopium/TINA/FOMO/QE Infinity Bubble. Perhaps we'll even set a new record in terms of historical overvaluation.

At the end of the day, those whose savings are safety ensconced in a bunker SWAN portfolio have nothing to fear from the future, nor do we need to have crystal balls to meet our long-term goals.

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Disclosure: I am/we are long ABBV, BNS, BMO, PM. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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