Daily Archives: June 5, 2020

We have been in Anatolia for a thousand years under the roof of the Turkish State. There has never been any other state, empire or civilization in this most distinguished part of the world that has achieved such a long reign, and whose geopolitical fate had ever lasted forever in this land. There were some ups and downs during this time. The peak, stagnation and decline, all had begun on the seas. The period of decline, which began with Lepanto (1571) on the seas and with Karlowitz (1699) on the land, had brought our ancestors to a point of losing their homeland and their state for the first time, with the invasion of Istanbul on the morning of November 13th 1918, with a total of 55 warships. As if it was not enough, on May 15th, 1919, the Greek armies had landed on the shores of Izmir.

The Ottoman Empire, which ruled by dogma rather than technology, science or reason, was a backward agricultural empire that surrendered its trade to foreign powers going into the First World War, its point of extinction. It did not have enough strength to resist the invasion from the sea, where the forward defenses should have always begun, in the face of the firepower of the Steel Empires. Nevertheless, the only reason that had delayed its earlier annihilation was its unique geography. It was being held as a buffer state against the industrialized and strengthened Tsarist Russia, while it was carving its way across Mediterranean and therefore to India, threatening the British Empire. But this did not last for too long.

Its fate was determined, with the transition from coal to petroleum in the industry and in the navy, and with the growing mercantile interests, and eventually partitioned. The Talks of Reval 1907, 1916 Sykes-Picot and 1917 Balfour were the breaking points. Sevres, signed by the Ottomans at the end of the First World War in 1920, had not only torn the empire apart, but had also dragged it away from the high seas. It was turned into a tiny state sharing a coast with Armenia, while its coastline was shrunk only to 500 km, having access only to the Black Sea.

The Ottomans, while drifting away from reason, also drifted away from the seas. The navy fell victim to the capitulations, imperialism and a backward continental mindset on the home front over the past years. They adapted to the age of sailing 100 years behind the rest of the world, only in the sixteenth century. The heavy costs of having only 20-30 professional naval ministers/Commander-in-Chiefs of the Navy out of total 216 in the entire 600-year-old imperial history was paid for heavily in the Battles of Chesma, Navarino and Sinop with defeats. The Ottoman Empire, which had drifted away from science and industrialism, a key point to establish a maritime power, was unable to produce industrial goods as well, and was doomed to collapse. It had to fight with its blood, against their steel. Entireties of Egypt, Cyprus and Libya were lost before the Balkan Wars; and then the Adriatic and Aegean were lost after, then Danube and Suez basins were completely disconnected from the Anatolian peninsula. In the First World War, the invading navies faced no difficulty when coming to Gallipoli, and on the morning of April 25th 1915, Commander of the 19. Division Lt.Colonel Mustafa Kemal, had to order the 57. Regiment to die, in Ar Burnu.

The Treaty of Sevres, which was written to clear off the Turks from much of the Thrace and Anatolia, was torn apart on the morning of September 9th, 1922 by the troops under Mustafa Kemals command. Thus, the unity of the Anatolian peninsula with Thrace was preserved with this War of Independence. They were to protect all their four seas and their 8,300 km long coastlines. Mustafa Kemal Ataturk had seen that Anatolia could not survive without a navy, but naval power alone would not be enough either. The Turks and Anatolia must be maritimized along with the state and state institutions. The first line of defense must begin at the sea.

It must have switched to the facade of a maritime civilization, despite its 900 years old continental characteristics. The Eternal Commander-in-Chief, Mustafa Kemal Atatrk, quickly established a navy that will be the first line of defense of the new republic, despite that the state did not even possess an operational vessel, let alone possessing a qualified admiral or a navy at full combat readiness. In order to close this gap, he had founded the Ministry of the Navy and put his best friend, the former President of the Independence Tribunals, Retired Artillery Major Ihsan Eryavuz in charge. Eryavuz, who had accomplished very important works, by taking a significant share of the state budget in a short time, became the focus of envious and reactionists within the state. He was drawing a lot of attention, especially his relations with the Prime Minister Inonu which brought a lot of contention.

Thus, the Ministry that was established on December 30th, 1924, was closed on January 16th, 1928. The so-called corruption scandal called Yavuz-Havuz (Floating Dock) was raised with the consent of the Prime Minister and the Chief of the General Staff Marshall akmak and with the propagation of the media; almost all the staff testified and Eryavuz was sentenced for two years in prison. Thus, our maritime policies and our Navy were governed by the General Staff in Ankara for 21 years, until the Naval Forces Command were eventually established in 1949. Ataturk maintained his support for the development of the Navy, despite all these difficulties. He had honored the Navy at every opportunity he could get. In 1937, while the national avionic boom in aeronautics was experienced, the Navy built its first ship at Golcuk Shipyards and named the oil tanker after Golcuk.

After November 10th, 1938, Turkey had experienced a sharp geopolitical dispersion. Efforts to develop the national defense industry significantly plummeted. Turkey, after being a part of the Atlantic Alliance after World War II, was armed with the tanks, aircraft and ships, phased out by the US Army and the Navy. The new force structure of military forces has also affected the concepts and doctrines of Turkish military might. Turkey had become a part of strategic plans created by the United States in order to contain the Soviet Union from the south, as a rimland country. The states most important institutions went under full control of the Atlantic Alliance and the US-led military political doctrine when it entered NATO in 1952. Turkey could not focus on its own national geopolitical priorities, given the Cyprus and Aegean crises. Although during the successful Intervention in Cyprus and the Aegean Continental Shelf crisis, it might have acted outside the control of imperialism, it was still never allowed for the Turkish state to leave its main course of NATO and Western interests.

They did not achieve this with a foreign intervention. They used the pro-mandate groups in the homefront. On the one hand, they managed to demote the founding values and the Ataturk himself, sliding away from its essential ideological format into a personality cult. But most importantly, they made the Turks lose their confidence. This insecurity persisted until the end of the Cold War. After the 90s, Turkey gradually began to explore itself, its own geography, and the Turkic World. It was a fast-paced process. Turkeys contribution to the security of NATO and the West diminished after the USSR and the Warsaw Pact disintegrated. Turkey, meanwhile, had to face the painful truth that it could not hand its national security over to another state or an institution. Then it started working on its own, which disturbed imperialism. They had come up with the second version of the Sevres when they no longer needed Turkey.

American Imperialism has initiated major projects in our region with no limits after September 11th, 2001. The result was devastation, blood and tears. Turkey had taken great steps, especially in regards to the Navy. It has strengthened its geopolitical position in the Aegean, the Black Sea and in the Eastern Mediterranean. The defense industry has kicked into high gear. Unfortunately, this process has been awash in nefarious plots.

The plot set up by the treacherous FETO network did not eliminate the naval force structure by neutralizing it with sudden attacks as had occurred in the past, but rather by gradually paralyzing the command structure. Turkey, where up to 15 Admirals and hundreds of other officers were arrested overnight, did not even blink an eye. Taking actions in the name of imperialism, FETO has chosen the navy as its primary target in line with the principle if you were going to take over Anatolia, you have to take over the Navy first.

Has not history already proven this? The patriotic section of the Anatolian people responded to these plots at massive rallies on December 13th, 2012 and on April 8th, 2013, when they had come to tear down the Walls of the Silivri Prison. Those walls were torn down in the spring of 2014. The spirit of National Power (Kuvay-i Milliye) was reborn. FETO responded to Turkey by opening fire on civilians on the night of July 15th, 2016, when it had just begun to take a path of independence again. The Turkish Nation had suffered casualties but did not surrender their state. Since then, the activities carried out under the name of FETO purges have continued.

Turkey has achieved some great and important successes in the fight against FETO, but the strategic level of the purges is still in question. Many journalists, politicians and thinkers associated and affiliated with imperialism and with FETO continue their activities. The most important sign of the severity of the FETO activities will be whether Turkeys actions to protect its interests in the Eastern Mediterranean, Aegean and in Cyprus are preserved in the coming days or not.

This is the reason that these areas are some of the most important strategic areas for Turkey in terms of combatting imperialism. Imperialism, while ready to exploit the social and economic crises created because of the COVID-19 pandemic, will also use FETOs soft power, either by some shady social media accounts, or through some pro-mandate groups within us. On the other hand, it should be no surprise if these activities intensify after the ousting of Admiral Cihat Yayci, an important name in the fight against FETO. In this regard, some signs are being shown on FETO-affiliated websites, YouTube channels and news articles that were published abroad. For example, the Blue Homeland is being defined as part of Turkish imperialism. Greek media also defined it as Turkish revisionism and neo-Ottomanism.

Some journalists in Turkey can say that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Armed Forces are greatly disturbed by the concept of Blue Homeland. In other words, imperialism is trying to tell Turkey Do not try to protect your maritime jurisdiction areas, just surrender them by fugitive FETO thinkers and inside pro-mandate groups. We can already predict that in the coming days, the topics of the Blue Homeland, the Maritime Border Agreement with Libya and the developments in defense cooperation with Libya will be devalued, while some intense smearing and discrediting campaigns from FETO social media accounts will take charge. In the context of Turkey shifting away from its traditional Western/NATO line, these points can be brought up as a possible solution: unconditional rapprochement with Greece, suspending the idea of the Blue Homeland, a federal solution for Cyprus, full surrender to the US plans in Syria, and the deactivation of the S-400 systems.

Pixabay

Turkey is secure and prosperous when the navy is stronger; and in fear and devastation when the navy is weak. Remember, those who came to partition Anatolia have always come by the sea. Every time when the Navy was strengthened, it was hit either by imperialism or by internal opposition elements. History should not repeat itself in the 21st century. Imperialism should never be given this opportunity again, especially given that the Navy is experiencing its strongest, and its most active period ever. July 15, 2016 should always be on top of our compasses as a warning beacon. New betrayals and new deceptions must never be allowed. It should be noted that the path set by Mustafa Kemal Ataturks is the only one that will take us to our righteous port, with the lessons we learned from our recent past, regardless of the circumstances, when drawing new routes. That path passes through the Blue Homeland in the 21st century.

See more here:

From the Blue Homeland, to the High Seas - United World International

Working on a fishing vessel has its fair share of challenges but most Fijian seafarers have grown accustomed to it like Captain Josefa Kopeta, a Class 5 Master holder.

While most people would think being a crew member onboard a fishing vessel is not interesting, Capt Kopeta says working onboard those vessels allows seafarers to put food on the table for their families after they return from the sea and it helps them meet their daily needs and obligations.

Capt Kopeta, who is commonly known as Capt Jo in the fishing industry, says sailors like him have faced so many challenges with some even losing their lives out at sea.

As a captain, I didnt go through all that, but Ive heard about seafarers who are thrown overboard or have lost their lives because of disputes onboard the vessels they work on.

There are a lot of disputes that happen onboard that can lead to a sailor getting injured and communication can be a barrier on foreign vessels at times.

He said as captain on either local or foreign vessels he always tried to maintain a balance between his crew members.

I always try to make things work for everyone on board, its important when we are out at sea.

I make sure jobs are delegated well and works are done especially handling of fish stock that is caught. This fish stock is a big priority to us because its what gets us paid at the end of the day.

For my crew and I, working conditions are fine. Ive heard about other seafarers that are working in not so fine working conditions.

He said he hoped to see changes occur in the sector.

I hope more can be done about working seafarers on fishing vessels because its these seafarers who go out every day and try to earn a living and also try to survive in those tough working conditions.

He said hes from a community full of seafarers who board fishing boats in local and international waters so stories are often shared about working conditions.

He added talking about it allowed their voices to be heard about the challenges they faced.

Here is the original post:

The Fiji Times SHIPPING TIMES: Life on the high seas - Fiji Times

This article is part of a special report on Climate Solutions.

For the artisanal fisherman Gustavo Yaez, setting out in his modest vessel to hunt the jumbo flying squid that roam the deep fathoms of the southeast Pacific is no mere act of subsistence.

It is a spiritual enterprise.

From his dock in Valdivia, in central Chile, he and his intrepid crew begin their day at dusk during the high summer season. As darkness envelops their boat, they venture 25 to 70 miles from shore before dropping their jigs. Luminescence at the tips of these sturdy fishing lines attracts the mighty and aggressive diablo rojo, as the squid is reverentially known.

When caught, the creatures thrash violently aboard the deck, furiously spewing ink that douses the crew, who, clad in protective gear, let the mess roll off.

It is a way to disconnect, Mr. Yaez said of these Melvillian nocturnal adventures, a trip to the psychologist, a daily therapy. To fish is to be privileged to be in contact with the sea, with nature, with living beings, with God.

Economics, meantime, is such fishers temporal guiding star. There is good money in squid, with the price soaring about 40 percent from 2016 to 2019.

A fearsome marine predator so ravenous it is prone even to cannibalism, the jumbo squid can top out at over 100 pounds and 12 feet in length during a life span of only a year or two.

That is a lot of meat for the Asian market in particular, which since 2017 has imported an annual average of about $365 million in squid from Peru and $55 million from Chile.

Climate change, scientists suggest, has been fueling the squid bounty where Chile in particular is concerned.

Two decades ago, South Pacific jumbo squid fishing was a mainstay industry in Peru, but the cephalopod went largely unfished in Chilean waters to the south. Since the early 2000s, the squids range has shifted farther and farther down Chiles 2,700-mile coastline. It has also pulsed farther west into the high seas away from Peruvian shores.

Multiple studies, including one published in Current Biology in March, have found that climate changes striking impact on the oceans through warming, acidification, declining oxygen content and shifts in currents is driving marine-creature territories in a mass shift away from the tropics and toward the poles.

On May 25, Nature Ecology & Evolution published a paper that estimated the average poleward migration rate at 37 miles per decade, while Nature Climate Change published a complementary study that projected that the pace would accelerate with particularly intense velocity among creatures like the jumbo squid that favor lower ocean layers.

The impacts of climate change and variability are playing out much more dramatically in the ocean than on land, said Malin Pinsky, an ecologist at Rutgers University, noting that the oceans, which have warmed by nearly one degree Celsius since 1850, absorb 93 percent of the excess heat from industrial output. Its a largely unseen and yet incredibly dramatic redistribution of where animals live. Those effects ripple all the way through global trade and to our dinner plates.

The jumbo squids southward shift has been a lifesaver for small-scale Chilean fishermen such as Mr. Yaez, who have suffered major losses as overfishing and, likely, climate change have compromised many important fish stocks.

But the squids arrival has also provoked intense domestic conflicts in Chile, including riots, as artisanal fishermen, Mr. Yaez included, have fought with their industrial counterparts over the rights to the catch.

Then there are the international tensions that so often arise as fish stocks migrate.

By crossing international borders in greater numbers and thus exposing itself to new groups of fishers, the jumbo squid population has wound up at risk for overfishing. The Chilean take declined in 2019. In an ideal world, nations would mitigate such risk by coordinating more sustainable fishing practices.

There is an absolute need for sustainable wild-ocean fisheries, to help feed an increasingly hungry planet, said Doug Rader, chief oceans scientist at the Environmental Defense Fund, especially the three-plus billion people who depend on the ocean for protein.

The 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea guarantees individual countries exclusive economic zones (E.E.Z.s) that extend up to 200 nautical miles from their shorelines and within which nations maintain sole fishing rights. Globally, nearly 90 percent of all wild seafood is caught within the zones.

In mid-March, the South Pacific Regional Fisheries Management Organization, one of about 20 such groups around the world that coordinate sustainable fishing practices in international waters, took the first steps toward establishing a management and conservation agreement between national members for sustainably fishing jumbo squid on the high seas.

While the agreement, which goes into place in January, does not yet stipulate limits on the squid catch, it requires the gathering of data and samples to inform fishery records and vital scientific inquiries into the valuable marine creature.

Ideally, states should be able to align both in science and management, and the same should apply in international waters, said Alfonso Miranda, the Lima, Peru-based president of Calamasur, a new industry group that advocates for sustainable jumbo squid fishing.

In a 2018 paper in Science, Dr. Pinsky projected that compared with a scenario of reduced emissions, the current fossil fuel emissions trajectory would result in 23 percent more fish populations crossing international boundaries by 2060.

According to at least the preponderance of international fishing agreements, though, it is as if no such upheaval is underway.

For a paper published in Nature Sustainability in February, Kimberly L. Oremus, a marine policy expert at the University of Delaware, reviewed 127 such agreements and found that not one had language explicitly addressing climate change-driven losses of fishing stocks from exclusive economic zones.

Global fishing regulation is instead predicated on an increasingly outdated concept of fish populations as static in their historical ranges and renewable within national jurisdictions.

Seeking to develop a global model for managing ocean resources in the face of climate change, the Environmental Defense Fund is coordinating a sprawling research effort among South American scientists to better understand the evolution of fisheries within South Pacifics Humboldt Current, which sweeps north from Chiles midpoint to southern Ecuador and then flows westward, driving about 20 percent of worldwide fishing.

Kristin Kleisner, a senior scientist at the fund, is testing models that could permit more accurate projections of how the jumbo squid and other marine life within the current will fluctuate from year to year.

The willingness on the part of scientists from Ecuador, Peru and Chile to share data analysis and collaborate on this research front has imbued Dr. Kleisner with optimism that they can make the major strides necessary to best inform sustainable fishing practices in the region.

This cooperation, Dr. Kleisner said, is actually really amazing because Chile and Peru had a maritime border dispute up until 2014.

If policies dont adapt to account for climate changes effects on fish ranges, the global fishing industry could be thrown progressively into chaos.

Nations, especially those in the tropics, that face fish-stock losses could wind up having minimal incentive to fish sustainably and might tap as much of the resource as they can before it has fully departed. And nations that gain stocks, and thus lack specific agreements with other nations to manage them well, might fish them without respecting U.N. policies that demand sustainable fishing practices worldwide.

In the most famous example of such imbalance, the Northeast Atlantic mackerel that historically swam within a range managed by the European Union, Norway and the Faroe Islands started showing up in the Icelandic E.E.Z. in the mid-2000s. Unbound by a treaty, Icelandic fishers went after the stock without cooperating with the other parties, giving rise to still-simmering tensions known as the Mackerel Wars.

The worst case is theres no cooperation and we catch most of the fish that are out there, Dr. Pinsky said of the future of global fishing regulation.

And the last century of sustainable fisheries management goes out the window. In the best case, fisheries may become a bit less productive. And any given country will catch different species. But there will still be fisheries; theyll still feed millions of people, and provide jobs for hundreds of thousands of people.

As for Mr. Yaez, the Chilean squid fisherman, he prays that sustainability measures will keep alive a tradition that runs deep in his blood. He envisions a day when his children and grandchildren will suit up and take to the night waters in search of a rich bounty of squid drawn from the mysterious fathoms below.

Read the rest here:

Managing the Majestic Jumbo Flying Squid - The New York Times

To say that we are living in strange times is a great understatement. COVID-19 has changed the way we view what is normal.

This time of year is especially hard because our high school and college seniors who would be graduating are looking for new ways to celebrate their achievements.

I pray that we all attempt to see the positive possibilities of being Christlike in a world that is scared and seems to thrive on bad news. Jesus Christ is good news yesterday, today, and forever.

A few years, my church sponsored a cruise called, Salt and Light. The idea comes from the Scripture in Matthew 5:13-14, when Jesus described his followers as Salt and Light.

I believe a follower of Christ can make a positive difference anywhere, and the more believers you have in one place, the greater chance you have to inspire someone to come to Christ.

The cruise line that we selected knew that we met every day for prayer, praise and Bible application time. They provided us with a room and prepared for our meeting. We had several guests who had heard about our Bible time and joined us for this special meeting while we were on the high seas.

For me, it is the only way to go on a cruise, to have a group of Christian people who want to enjoy the beauty of Gods creation and to worship him on the ship.

I would encourage even the greatest of land lovers to give this a try and not to be worried about getting seasick, because they do make medicine for stuff like that. My doctor gave me a small patch that I wore behind my ear to stop motion sickness, or at least to slow it down. I have been on four cruises and have never gotten sick. I believe the main reason I have fought off seasickness is because I keep my mind on the positive reasons I am on the ship, namely to represent Jesus Christ.

Something else that I also look forward to is the food. If the ship never left dock, the different foods you get to try are worth the trip. You can order anything on the menu and many times as much as you want.

I am familiar with some of the food, while other foods are items that I cannot even pronounce. However, that has never stopped me from at least giving foods from different parts of the world a chance to tickle my taste buds.

One such item that I have encountered on the menu is something called vichyssoise which to us regular folks is cold soup. I realize that there is more than one temperature to eat something or drink something. I will drink hot tea as well as ice tea. I enjoy chocolate at room temperature, cold, and even melting hot, why should soup be any different?

Well folks, it is different, and I dont mean in a good way. It is like trying to eat something that somebody else has already tried to eat but they didnt like it, even when it was hot. Even a fancy foreign word cant convince me that I am taking a stab at culture and improving my IQ by eating something that my palate is telling me to throw overboard and feed to the fishes. Some things should never be served cold.

A few days ago while I was studying my Bible, I came across a passage of Scripture that brought back the idea of cold soup. In Matthew 24, Jesus was describing the events of the Last Days. Verse 12 says, And because lawlessness will abound, the love of many will grow cold.

As I prayed about this Scripture I realized that a person does not have to participate in lawlessness to be affected by it. If the devil can get you to take your eyes off Jesus and place them on all the crazy things that are taking place in the world, your heart will grow cold. God never intended for your heart to be cold towards him or to the needs and challenges of this world. The only way you can check yourself for a cold heart is to look into the use of your time, talents, tithes and offerings. How much time do you give to spend with God in prayer? How do you use your talents for Gods glory and for the encouragement of others? How do you use your finances to honor God by giving back to him what he has given to you? If you have an excuse in any of these areas for not giving your best to God, chances are you have a bad case of the Cold Heart.

The only cure for the cold heart is to get where Jesus is and stay close to him. Jesus will make sure your heart stays at the right temperature every day of your life. Remember, dont give in to sin. Think about it.

Vince Hefner is pastor of First Baptist Church in Cherryville.

Read the original here:

Faith column: Cold soup and other strange things - McDowell News

By Peter Hummers on June 4, 2020

In 1718, Edward Teach, the pirate popularly known as Blackbeard, was killed off Ocracoke Island, becoming an icon of the Outer Banks. Much fiction has been generated from his life; here are three shows in which he stars, or appears.

CROSSBONES (Amazon.com; on demand on Prime Video and other services) 2014 [TV14]

The brainchild of Neil Cross (Luther), James V. Hart (Hook), and Amanda Welles, Crossbones is an adaptation of Colin Woodards book The Republic of Pirates, in which Blackbeard (John Malkovich) presides over the island of Santa Compaa, home to pirates, thieves, and cutthroats. The British Empire believes Teach dead, but he is in hiding, calling himself Commodore.

Tom Lowe, a British spy, receives a mission from his commander William Jaggerkill the Commodore. According to Jagger, the man he killed eleven years earlier at Ocracoke was not the real Blackbeard but a double. Lowe poses as a surgeon aboard the HMS Petrel, a ship bound for England that is attacked by pirates looking to steal a prototype of an important navigation device called the longitude chronometer and its inventor Frederick Nightingale. And thats just the first episode.

With characters called Wild Man, and antics such as the trepanning of a paranoid Blackbeards skull, and scripts by Neil Cross, the ten episodes of Crossbones are every bit as entertaining as they might sound. Heres the NBC trailer.

Captain Flint and John Silver are up to no good in Black Sails. (IMDb.com)

BLACK SAILS (Amazon.com; Hulu) 2014-2017 [TVMA]

1715 West Indies.The pirates of New Providence Island threaten maritime trade in the region.The laws of every civilized nation declare them hostis humani generis. Enemies of all mankind.In response, the pirates adhere to a doctrine of their ownwar against the world.

So begins Black Sails, a prequel to Treasure Island that opens with a pirate attack on a three-master. The ships cook tears a page from the log and hides it, before it ultimately lands in the possession of roguish John Silver, who signs on with the pirates. Pirate captain Flint believes the missing log page holds the clue to the whereabouts of a Spanish treasure ship.

This plot device intersects with a threatened mutiny aboard Captain Flints ship, one of many based on the island of New Providence, comparable to the Santa Compaa of Crossbones, a republic of pirates. Many historical pirates are name-checked, including Blackbeard in season three. The business of the island is described, with Eleanor Guthrie, daughter of the islands most successful merchant, coordinating attacks and finding buyers for stolen booty while wrangling the pirates.Heres the first trailer for this delicious Starz series.

Blackbeard wreaks havoc on the high seas looking for Captain Kidds treasure. His dark presence causes controversy in the local port town of New Providence. (IMDb.com)

BLACKBEARD THE PIRATE (Amazon.com; Prime Video; YouTube; Tubi; Google Movies & TV; Apple TV) 1952 [TVPG]

This colorful Raoul Walsh swashbuckler lays its escapist intentions out right after the opening titles: The meeker the man, the more pirate he/Snug in his armchair, far from the sea,/And reason commends his position:/He has all of the fun and none of the woes,/Masters the ladies and scuttles his foes,/And cheats both the noose and perdition! The Armchair Pirate, Anon.

The film follows British Navy Lieutenant Robert Maynard, who sets out to earn a reward by proving that privateer Henry Morgan also engages in piracy.

Maynard poses as a surgeon on board the ship of pirate Charles Bellamy, who he believes is in league with Morgan. Once Maynard and fellow spy Briggs come on board, they discover that the pirate Blackbeard has murdered Bellamy and taken over as captain. Maynard, however, remains fixed on finding Morgan.

Between Robert Newtons ecstatic delivery of lines like Arrgh! A fiery wench, then! and minor roles filled by William Bendix (The Life of Riley) and Irene Ryan (The Beverly Hillbillies), this beautiful film is tailor-made for a bucket of popcorn. There are sailors hung from yard-arms, cannon duels, kidnapped ladies, and mutinies planned, all as it should be. Heres a trailer.

Next time, its all in the game. Email me and follow Stream On OBX on Twitter.

(Pete Hummers is a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to earn fees by linking Amazon.com and affiliate sites. This adds nothing to Amazons prices.)

Click here for more Stream On: What to watch on TV columns by Pete Hummers.

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Stream On: Three pirate shows, all rated Aargh! - The Outer Banks Voice

Here's What You Need To Remember: Isolating your opponent is a necessary precursor to waging limited war. It simplifies matters before a one-on-one fight, skews the balance of forces in your favor, and thus lifts your chances of a quick, clean triumph. The U.S.-Japan alliance has not fractured diplomatically, but Beijing might conclude that it has fractured militarilyalbeit temporarilyas Japans ally battles the coronavirus and takes ships and aircraft offline.

On March 30 a destroyer from the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force collided with a Chinese fishing boat on the high seas in the East China Sea. Details remain sketchy, but the collision came on the heels of a similar collision between a Taiwan Coast Guard vessel and a mainland fishing boat. The incident also came scant days before a China Coast Guard cutter rammed and sank a Vietnamese fishing boat in the Paracel Islands.

What gives?

Look to the masters. Sci-fi genius Robert Heinlein warned readers never to attribute to villainy behavior that was adequately explained by stupidity. In other words, he believed malice should be the explanation of last resort for puzzling conduct on the part of people or groups of people; it shouldnt be the default. Better to hunt for more benign explanations first. With apologies to Heinlein, I would amend his razor, or heuristic, slightly. Its too narrow. There are other candidates than stupidity or purposeful villainy to account for misconduct. Factors like incompetence, bureaucratic inertia, and sheer accident formand sometimes deformhuman thought and action. They belong on the stupidity side of Heinleins ledger.

How about this: Never attribute to villainy behavior that can be adequately explained by human failings. That preserves the essence of Heinleins razor while widening its scope to fit reality.

Lets use his revised heuristic to evaluate the Sino-Japanese collision. Its certainly possible the mishap came about by accident. It took place at night, in crowded waters. If the U.S. Navy collisions of 2017 taught us nothing else, its that the crews of even frontline warships can suffer from a host of maladies, from overwork to shoddy personnel practices to doctrinal or training shortfalls. No amount of high technologywhether its Aegis radar or satellite navigationcan altogether forestall human error. It may be that the Japanese crew, the Chinese crew, or both blundered around in the dark and came to grief. By Heinleins lights thats the generous and proper assumption until the facts become known. If they do.

Story continues

Nevertheless, a silent corollary has to be appended to Heinleins razor: But dont rule out villainy, either.

Especially when it comes to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). For decades Beijing has made militiamen embedded in the Chinese fishing fleet an arm of maritime strategy. The maritime militia is an irregular adjunct to regular naval forces, including the Peoples Liberation Army Navy (PLA Navy) and especially the musclebound China Coast Guard fielded over the past decade. Beijing touted the militias combat prowess as long ago as 1974, when Chinese naval forces wrested a tottering South Vietnams holdings in the Paracel Islands from it in a brief but bloody sea battle. Militia craft backed by the coast guard have been a fixture in the South China Sea ever since 2009, when Beijing declared indisputable sovereignty over the vast majority of that body of waterincluding seas allocated to its neighbors by treaty. The irregular force went into overdrive in 2012 during the standoff with the Philippine Navy and Coast Guard at Scarborough Shoal, deep within the Philippines exclusive economic zone. Fishing craft flood the zone in CCP-claimed waters and dare local coast guards or navies to repulse them. If the locals resist, the China Coast Guard backs up the militia. PLA regular forces provide a backstop should things go awry.

Militiamen, then, represent Communist Chinas strategic vanguard against weaker opponents.

But its not just weaker opponents. Over the past decade militia trawlers and coast-guard cutters have become a familiar feature of the seascape around the Senkaku Islands, an uninhabited archipelago northeast of Taiwan. So common is their presence in these waters that, in practical terms, CCP potentates can claim to exercise a sort of joint administration there, alongside Tokyo. Staking that claim could constitute a precursor to an effort to seize the islets themselves. Fear of a Chinese amphibious assault has prompted Japanese sea and air forces to step up their own presence around the isletsreinforcing Japanese sovereign rights while deterring aggression. It has also prompted the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force to institute an island-hopping dynamic joint defense force to evict invaders should Japans southwestern islands, including the Senkakus, come under attack.

Which suits PLA commanders just fine. They realize that Japan must match the Chinese presence, and that Chinese forces enjoy a hefty advantage in numbers. In other words, the China Coast Guard, maritime militia, and PLA Navy can sustain a sizable presence in embattled waters without breaking a sweat. Meanwhile the Japan Coast Guard and Maritime Self-Defense Force labor to keep pace. They must deploy a bigger share of their less numerous fleets to police the contested seas. Constant deployment takes its toll on crews and hulls over time, as crews spend more and more time at sea and it becomes harder and harder to find time to overhaul vessels. The PLA can wear down Japanese forces over time simply by being on the scene.

This approach is true to Chinese strategic traditions. The classical Chinese strategist Sun Tzu exhorts generals to use crack troops to keep the foe under a strain and wear him down through maneuver and deception. The victor, proclaims Master Sun, exhausts the vanquished by causing him continually to run about. An enemy weary from constantly scurrying around is an enemy apt to crumble when struck a sharp blow. Such a fate could befall Japanese island defenders if they have to sustain uptempo operations for too long.

Speaking of deception, founding CCP chairman Mao Zedong, who etched his ideas about military strategy onto PLA culture, proclaims that there can never be too much deception in warfare. Mao drew inspiration from Sun Tzu, who advises commanders to harness normal and extraordinary forces to harry and ultimately defeat antagonists. Normal forces engage the foe in more or less frontal engagements while extraordinary forces range around the margins, striking indirectly at weak spots and furnishing the normal forces their difference-maker. In battle, writes Sun Tzu, there are only the normal and extraordinary forces, but their combinations are limitless. PLA commanders, then, combine and recombine forces in unorthodox ways to keep adversaries off-balance and weak.

The PLA Navy looks like Chinas normal force, the coast guard and maritime militia like its extraordinary force. The extraordinary sea force mounts the main effort in peacetime while the normal force waits in reserve, ready to mete out heavy punishment should fighting break out. Spreading a protective umbrella over both forces is a forbidding array of shore-based missiles and aircraft, able to lend its firepower to the mix should seagoing forcesnormal or extraordinaryfind themselves in trouble. In effect land-based armaments comprise the PLAs second extraordinary force, a supplement to the others. Sun Tzus and Maos hearts would glow.

Scholar Barton Whaley, the grandmaster of deception theory, illustrates the dangers the CCPs East China Sea strategy poses for Japan. Every deception operation, writes Whaley, is comprised of only two basic parts: dissimulation and simulation. Dissimulating hides or obscures something real from the targets eyes; simulating displays something false. If successful the deceiver substitutes a false image for the truth in opponents minds. Tactical, operational, or strategic advantage accrues.

Whaley terms one method of dissimulation repackaging. Repackaging hides the real by disguising. It wraps a thing differently, modifying its appearance. Beijing could repackage amphibious combat forces by, say, secreting PLA marines aboard cutters or trawlers. The irregular force cruising around the Senkakus could pack a regular punch. Beijing could repackage malign intentions by keeping up operations around the Senkakus, much as it has done over the past decade. This strategy generates the image of a CCP content to compete with Tokyo for jurisdiction over the islands without fighting for them. In Whaleys words, it feigns normalcy in coast-guard and fishing-fleet operations. The more China lulls Japan into regarding its presence around the archipelago as mundane, the better its chances of delivering a sudden, crushing strike.

Decoying is one technique for simulation. Decoying, says Whaley, shows the false by diverting attention. Chinese mariners could divert Tokyos attention away from the Senkakus by doing somethingor multiple somethingssomewhere else on the map. Something like, say, arranging a collision with a vessel from Japans navy. Decoy operations, presumably mounted by Chinas extraordinary force, would not just deflect Japanese attention from the Senkakus but siphon away Japanese resources as well. In the tradition of Sun Tzu and Mao, Chinese militiamen and coastguardsmen could enfeeble Japanese forces at the scene of impactbolstering Chinas relative standing before a decisive action.

Chinese deception, in sum, could be designed to tire out Japanese seafarers, lull them into complacency, and distract them by staging events well away from the prospective battleground. Thenbang.

If Tokyo hasnt yet discovered whether the Chinese fishing craft was part of the maritime militia, it should make every effort to do so. If it was, China may have divulged some inkling of its intentions in the East China Sea. If it wasnt, the point stands. Beijing crowds the China seas with shipping for strategic purposes. Some of those vessels will come in close contact with Japanese vesselscreating opportunities for mischief. Japan must be on guard, now more than ever. CCP leaders may sense that now is their time, with a significant part of the U.S. Navyincluding both carriers now in the Western Pacificmore or less idled because of the pandemic, and with top U.S. Navy leadership in disarray.

Isolating your opponent is a necessary precursor to waging limited war. It simplifies matters before a one-on-one fight, skews the balance of forces in your favor, and thus lifts your chances of a quick, clean triumph. The U.S.-Japan alliance has not fractured diplomatically, but Beijing might conclude that it has fractured militarilyalbeit temporarilyas Japans ally battles the coronavirus and takes ships and aircraft offline. If so, Beijing may see a window of opportunity cracking open that might never crack open again. It will be tempted to act before that window slams shut. Whether it will yield to temptation remains to be seen.

On second thought, maybe we should make an exception to Heinleins razor for the CCP: Never attribute to human failings Chinese Communist deeds that are adequately explained by villainybut dont rule out human failings, either. Judging from Beijings misdeeds of recent years, the odds side with you if you shift the burden of proof to Xi Jinping & Co. This heuristic is safer, too. It keeps you alert.

Heads up, Japan.

James Holmes is J. C. Wylie Chair of Maritime Strategy at the Naval War College and coauthor of Red Star over the Pacific, a fixture on the Navy Professional Reading List. The views voiced here are his alone. This article first appeared in April and is being republished due to reader interest.

Image: Reuters.

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Thanks To Coronavirus, Tensions Are Rising In The South China Sea - Yahoo News

Now every service chief has denounced racism in the ranks. Shortly after Defense Secretary Mark Esper told reporters Wednesday he sent a memo to department employees about racism, U.S. military leaders of every service branch delivered their own public message about racism in society and within the ranks and obliquely, about the proper role of armed forces in a country roiled by protest. Defense Ones Marcus Weisgerber, Kevin Baron and Bradley Peniston tracked the reactions and rolled them all up, here.

Racism is real in America, and we must all do our very best to recognize it, to confront it, and to eradicate it, Esper said Wednesday. And according to his memo to the force, he wrote, I, like you, am steadfast in my belief that Americans who are frustrated, angry, and seeking to be heard must be ensured thatopportunity.

Air Force leaders were the first among their cohort to speak out about George Floyd, who on May 25 became the latest unarmed black man killed by law enforcement officers. Chief Msgt. Kaleth Wright, the Air Forces top enlisted official, tweeted Monday that his greatest fear is that I will wake up to a report that one of our Black Airmen has died at the hands of a white police officer. The following day, Gen. David Goldfein, the Air Force chief of staff, joined Wright in a video posted on the services social mediachannels.

Also on Tuesday, U.S. Space Forces commander and top enlisted leader, Gen. John Raymond and Chief Master Sgt. Roger Towberman, released a letter to the force that began, The tragic death of George Floyd is wrong and goes against the founding principles of our it also serves as a stark reminder that racism and the unequal treatment is a reality for many and a travesty forall.

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The Army followed on Wednesday. Then came the Navy. By early evening, the U.S. Marine Corps commandant and Sergeant Major of the Marine Corps had posted and tweeted their statement. Marines and Sailors, last summer, in my planning guidance, I stated there is no place in our Corps for racists, said the statement issued by Gen. David Berger and Sgt. Maj. Troy Black. Current events are a stark reminder that it is not enough for us to remove symbols that cause division rather, we also must strive to eliminate divisionitself.

Then Wednesday evening, National Guard chief Gen. Joseph Lengyel released his own memo, which reads, in part, I am enraged that this storykeeps happening in our country, where unarmed men and women of color are the victims of police brutality and extrajudicialviolence.

And heres U.S. Coast Guard Commandant Adm. Karl Schultz(who released his own internally-distributed statement to the force on Tuesday), speaking to Defense One Radio in a forthcoming exclusiveinterview:

Subscribe to Defense One Radio for more from the commandant later today on, e.g., Chinas navy, Russias ambitions in the arctic, how the Coast Guard is increasingly using unmanned systems, how the coronavirus has challenged the force, and more. Coverage continues below thefold.

One more thing: Mattis speaks out. Former defense secretary James Mattis released a statement on Wednesday backing protesters and saying that the president is trying to turn Americans against one another. Read that statement in full, here.

Service Chiefs Acknowledge Racism in the Ranks, Pledge Dialogue, Change // Kevin Baron, Marcus Weisgerber, and Bradley Peniston: After days of civil unrest and several Esper missteps, each one of the service branch chiefs has begun to speakout.

Esper Opposes Insurrection Act Use // Katie Bo Williams: Trump has threatened to invoke the act in order to use active duty troops to policeprotests.

Who Are They? Unmarked Security Forces in DC Spark Fear // Katie Bo Williams: Mistaken for mercenaries, armed personnel from federal agencies refuse to identify themselves to street protestors andmedia.

James Mattis Denounces Trump as a Threat to the Constitution // Jeffrey Goldberg, The Atlantic: In an extraordinary condemnation, the former defense secretary backs protesters and says the president is trying to turn Americans against oneanother.

Quieter Night In DC As Protests Continue Amid Large Militarized Response Force // Katie Bo Williams: The show-of-force angered protesters, but the crowds eventually dwindled without much policeintervention.

Americas Generals Must Stand Up to Trump // Eliot A. Cohen, The Atlantic: Our military leaders are willing to take a bullet for this country. But are they prepared to take a pinkslip?

Welcome to this Thursday edition of The D Brief from Ben Watson and Bradley Peniston. Send us tips from your community right here. And if youre not already subscribed to The D Brief, you can do that here. On this day in 1944, a U.S. carrier group captures the German submarine U-505, the first warship captured on the high seas by the U.S. Navy since the 19th century.

JUST IN: Iran has freed U.S. Navy veteran Michael White, who last travelled to Iran in January 2018, CBS Newss Margaret Brennan relays via Twitter today. His family has thanked Swiss diplomats for their help along with the @StateDept & Fmr Gov Bill Richardson, Brennan tweets.Said Whites mom, Joanne, in a statement today: For the past 683 days my son, Michael, has been held hostage in Iran by the IRGC and I have been living a nightmare. I am blessed to announce that the nightmare is over, and my son is safely on his way home. More from CNN, here.

Elements apparently from the South Carolina National Guard arrived in the nations capital Wednesday afternoon, regional WUSA9s Mike Valaerio reported.But before their arrival, Pentagon officials said theyd be sending home a few hundred active-duty soldiers ordered to the National Capital Region earlier in the week. Then Defense Secretary Mark Esper was summoned to the White House in the middle of a press conference in which he pushed back on Trumps threat to deploy active duty soldiers against protestors. Soon, Pentagon officials said Esper has reversed his decision to send the troops home. More from AP.Democratic and independent lawmakers continued to demand answers and clarification about how military officials intend to allow their troops to be used amid the civil unrest. The chair of the House Armed Services Committee Adam Smith, D-Calif., has called Esper and CJCS Gen. Milley to testify.Even some GOP lawmakers offered support, at least, for Esper to push back on Trumps hints that he might involve the Insurrection Act and deploy troops directly against protesters. The Hill, here.BTW: Prison guards were put to work outside the White House, MSNBCs Garrett Haake reported Wednesday onlocation.

Two U.S. Park Police officers are on administrative leave after video showed two Australian journalists being attacked on live TV during Monday nights protest in D.C. More from NBC News.Food for thought: We need to change what it means to be police in America, writes former CIA man who is now a Savannah, Ga., beat cop, Patrick Skinner, in the op-ed pages of the Washington Post.One more thing: Three men were held in Las Vegas Wednesday on terror charges in a right-wing conspiracy to spark violence during protests, AP reported. One is an Army reservist, another formerly enlisted in the Navy, the third formerly enlisted in the Air Force and have self identified as part of the Boogaloomovement.

Senator who wants airplanes lifts his hold on the man tapped to become the first black service chief. Soon after Air Force Gen. Charles Browns May confirmation hearing, Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, blocked his nomination to become Air Force chief of staff and the first African American service chief, according to three people who talked to Defense News. Sullivan, who spent much of his time at the hearing pressing Brown to base the new KC-46 tanker in his state, lifted his hold on Thursday. Read on, here.The Senate also approved two nominees for defense policy jobs: Victor Mercado as assistant defense secretary for strategy, plans and capabilities; and James Anderson, as deputy defense undersecretary for policy. With the confirmations, there are now 17 senate-confirmable seats open at the Pentagon. Thirteen of those spots have no announced nominee, including the full undersecretary of policy a role Anderson has filled since John Rood was forced out in February and is likely to continue to fill. Read on, here.

In a reversal, the Philippines has now decided to keep its military agreement with the U.S. as territorial tensions with China heat up in the South China Sea, CNN reported Wednesday. The agreement, signed in 1988, gives US military aircraft and vessels free entry into the Philippines and relaxes visa restrictions for US military personnel. The Philippine government gave the US 180 days notice to end the deal in February, suggesting that Manila needed to rely on its own resources for its defense. On Tuesday, the US welcomed the change of heart.Related: Philippine President Rody Duterte is expected to sign legislation defining terrorism so broadly that critics of the government could easily be detained without charge, the New York Times reportstoday.

And finally today: Flooding the right-wing zone with K-Pop. The easiest and cheapest way to disrupt a rivals communication system is to flood it with noise, Vice reported Wednesday from the influence wars playing out on social media today and how some far-right accounts are being flustered by the work of Korean pop music fans. However, protestors are also deploying the [flood-the-zone] tactic in the field. In Chicago, for example. Read on, here.

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Service chiefs speak out; Exclusive interview with USCG's Adm. Schultz; Unmarked security forces in DC; Mattis slams Trump; And a bit more. - Defense...

Nordic Monitor

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice President of the European Commission Josep Borrell last week informed the UN Security Council that the EUs Operation Irini has started preventing ships from smuggling Libyan oil in the Mediterranean in accordance with a UN embargo.

Borrell addressed the council on the EUs role in the preservation of international peace and security on May 28. A day after Borrells remarks, Turkish Energy Minister Fatih Dnmez announced Turkeys plan to conduct oil and gas exploration off the Libyan coast. Turkeys drilling activities in the region would both derail EU efforts aimed at a peaceful solution in Libya and undermine international initiatives to implement the UN arms embargo on Libya.

The EU is working hard to create the conditions for a ceasefire. It is not easy and there are many agendas at play, but we cannot lose, we cannot stop our hope and our work because there is no alternative to an inclusive political solution. But to find a political solution, we need to stop the flows of weapons into Libya and to create the space for a real dialogue. With this objective in mind, we have launched a new operation in the Mediterranean. We call it Operation Irini, which is related with hope. Its core task is to implement the United Nations arms embargo through naval, aerial and satellite assets, the EU foreign policy chief said during his online speech.

Only few weeks after it started its activities at sea, the operation had already proved its added value. I am happy to share this information with you. This operation has been sharing valuable information with the UN panel of experts and having a deterrent effect including on oil smuggling, preventing some ships of participating in these illegal activities. It is critical that the Council [UN Security Council] renew the resolution of rising inspection on the high seas. It would complement the capabilities of the Irini mission and increase its value added.

The Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) had previously applied to the GNA for an exploration permit in the eastern Mediterranean, Turkeys state-run Anadolu news agency reported. Ankaras announcement that it intends to activate a maritime borders agreement signed in November 2019 with Libyas Government of National Accord (GNA) has brought simmering tensions to the boil.

Last month the foreign ministers of the UAE, Egypt, Cyprus, Greece and France called on Turkey to fully respect the sovereignty and the sovereign rights of all states in their maritime zones in the Eastern Mediterranean. France and Greece are active members of the EUs Operation Irini. On May 4 the operation commenced its activities at sea with the French naval vessel Jean Bart and a maritime patrol aircraft contributed by Luxembourg. The European Union Satellite Centre is also supporting Operation Irini with geospatial intelligence services.

Speaking at a ceremony last Friday to mark the launch of Turkeys first oil-and-gas drilling ship, the Fatih, to the Black Sea, Dnmez said the TPAO would begin operations in areas under its license after the process was complete. Within the framework of the agreement we reached with Libya we will be able to start our oil exploration operations there within three to four months, he stated.

Turkey provides military support to the GNA as well as to the allied militias that have joined forces against General Khalifa Haftars Libyan National Army (LNA). The Turkish government deployed troops to Libya and moved jihadists from Syrias Idlib region to the country in line with a security accord signed in November 2019 by President Erdoan and Fayez al-Sarraj, head of the UN-recognized GNA.

While Turkey backs the GNA in Libya, Haftars LNA has the support of the UAE, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Russia.

According to UNSC resolution 1970 (2011) imposing an arms embargo, a travel ban and an assets freeze in connection with the situation in the Libya, Member States shall immediately take the necessary measures to prevent the direct or indirect supply, sale or transfer to the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, from or through their territories or by their nationals, or using their flag vessels or aircraft, of arms and related materiel of all types, including weapons and ammunition, military vehicles and equipment, paramilitary equipment, and spare parts for the aforementioned, and technical assistance, training, financial or other assistance, related to military activities or the provision, maintenance or use of any arms and related materiel, including the provision of armed mercenary personnel whether or not originating in their territories.

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EU's Operation Irini is preventing smuggling of Libyan oil in Mediterranean - Nordic Research and Monitoring Network

The 21,080 evacuees from 22 coastal villages in Palghar district will continue to stay in temporary shelters till Thursday noon even as the Cyclone Nisarga threat was averted in Palghar on Wednesday.

Palghar district information office (DIO) Rahul Bhalerao confirmed the development. The residents are currently staying in schools, resorts and other establishments since Tuesday night and are being provided food packets, packaged drinking water, milk, dry rations and other materials, said Bhalerao.

Meanwhile, police and other officials visited the coastal villages of Dandi, Murbhe, Bordi, Dahanu, Navapur, Kelwe, Satpati, Shirgaon and other areas to take stock of the situation as the villages are dotting the Arabian Sea.

Two teams, comprising of 70 jawans of the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) Andheri visited the 110-km coastal stretch from Vasai to Zai in Talasari to warn the villagers to stay away from the beaches.

156 stranded fishermen return safe

Meanwhile, 156 fishermen on 13 boats who were stranded since Monday returned to Pachubunder jetty in Vasai on Tuesday night when the weather condition improved. Daman coast guard guided the boats safely to shore, said Ajinkya Patil, assistant commissioner, fisheries, Palghar.

Around 577 boats with 4,200 fishermen onboard were at sea amid the cyclone alert and 564 had returned to Palghar coast. The remaining 13 boats were stranded at the high seas and they returned safely on Tuesday late night said Patil. We will take action against the 577 boats which had ventured into the seas without permission and violated Section 144 (unlawful assembly) of the IPC, said Patil.

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21K evacuees to stay put even as cyclone threat averted at Palghar - Hindustan Times

India will always be subjected to pinpricks at will by China. Is this the way we want to tame the dragon and let it become a threat from a challenge? The answer obviously is no

The stand-off at Doklamin 2017 has been followed by another and bigger face-off in Eastern Ladakh now, with defence analysts, diplomats and strategic experts predicting the frequency to be almost annual due to the ostensible Chinese annoyance at the rapid rate of development of infrastructure along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) by India which neutralises the asymmetry created by the former till now. While on one hand China was actively trying to build a new image of a responsible global power by its increasing participation in Military Operations Other Than War (MOOTW) like peacekeeping, anti-piracy and humanitarian assistance, on the other it has not shed its belligerent attitude on the border with India due to the potential threat it perceives from India in its quest to become a superpower. It continues to encircle India through its Strings of Pearl and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) doctrine. Despite the desire expressed by Xi Jinping in his early years of presidency to speedily resolve the border dispute with India, China appears to be in no hurry to resolve the boundary dispute and on the contrary is becoming increasingly aggressive to reach areas as claimed by it and marked in our maps as Claim Line.

Chinas national goal is to achieve unification and build a moderately prosperous society by 2050, which would coincide with the centenary year of Communist rule. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has directed its army, the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) to ensure that no internal or external forces should be able to sabotage Chinas economic engine or embarrass its national honour. The current stand-off is a result of this mandate to the PLA because it feels threatened in Aksai Chin, a safe bet for the PLA till now. Both Aksai Chin and Karakoram Pass are Chinas jugular veins.

In response to the offer of US President Trump for a mediation to resolve the stand-off which as per the US assessment is very serious, Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh has informed his US counterpart that, It has been Indias efforts to ensure that the tension does not escalate. It should be resolved through talks at the military and diplomatic levels. We have already developed a mechanism for the same. Negotiations are ongoing between the two countries at the military and diplomatic level.

Going by the statements of the spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry and the Chinese Ambassador to India, Beijing, too, wants to resolve the issue mutually. China, before ordering the standoff, would have war-gamed the Indian responses and worked out an exit strategy to match each Indian response. New Delhis response, though firm and clear, has been traditional and nothing out of the box. Hence, as in the past, if China is keen to resolve the issue, it would buy time, coerce India through psychological operations, deception and threat of a conflict to seek a withdrawal on its terms. But India this time is adamant not to succumb to any type of pressure keeping in mind the prevailing geopolitical environment loaded heavily in its favour. In that case, China may agree to find a face-saving settlement for the time being but the dragon is known for its vengeance and non-forgiving behaviour.

The threat from the dragon may only be deferred for the next campaigning season but not eliminated. Can the present stand-off be Chinas revenge for Doklam with a new recalibrated response and so on? Status quo, therefore, is advantage China.

In the mind of our security policymakers China is not a threat but a challenge. The threat/challenge posed by an adversary is assessed by the policymakers based on their capabilities and intent. The major difference lies in assessing the intent of the adversary. If an adversary has hostile intentions as well as a matching military capability to pursue those intentions it is categorised as a threat. In the assessment of our policymakers, though China possesses a strong military capability, it does not harbour hostile intentions, hence categorised as a challenge. Rightly so, because of the stated national goal as mentioned above. But it does not take time for a militarily strong nation to change its intentions, particularly when the country is known for expansionist and extra-territorial ambitions.

Such a policy is good to justify the ongoing debate of Gun versus Butter in a developing economy and a nation burdened with a yawning gap between the rich and the poor. Fortunately India falls quite low in Chinas current threat assessment and worst-case scenarios. But can India remain happy with status quo or must it plan alternatives to meet growing Chinese aggressiveness and assertiveness?

India can end Chinese transgression if the conflict is taken to Beijings worry spot(s), says Ram Madhav, National General Secretary of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Besieged by a geopolitical situation, which led to a global assault against it, the dragon has decided to be proactive rather than succumb to the global pressure led by the US. It decided to convey a subtle message to the US potential allies through posturing and aggression in what is referred to as signalling in strategic terminology. In doing so, it made the cardinal mistake of opening up too many fronts simultaneously. The South China Sea (SCS), Taiwan, Hong Kong and the Sino-Indian border. Even Australia, a friend of China, joined the global onslaught against it. Japan was also becoming aggressive. China felt that it had been cornered and its move against India may prove costly.

China knows that in the current stand-off, militarily, both the Chinese and the Indian Army are equally strong, with India enjoying shorter lines of communication as compared to China. In case of a conflict, India would be at an advantage and will be able to concentrate more forces than China could deploy. No doubt China would bank on collusion with the Pakistan Army to tie down Indian troops, but even then, it could at best lead to a stalemate. A stalemate would definitely hit Chinas image globally and in other areas of conflict and would be a definite loss of face. China has the knack of springing surprises. Beijing may well begin with a non- contact battle; Information Warfare (IW), Electronic Warfare (EW), cyber-attacks, precision munitions followed by a surgical strike. Will we be able to match the Chinese capabilities in the conflict zone? In the end, if China does not vacate Indian territory, New Delhi should have other options to exercise. In such a scenario, India should have the option to signal the Chinese obliquely (through media, strategic community, diplomatic means and so on) that the conflict may not remain localised in the trans-Himalayan region but may spread to the high seas.

If the Indian policymakers consider Indo-Pacific as a soft underbelly of China, have they done enough to encash this advantage through capacity and capability build-up? The zone of peace and tranquility along the LAC espoused between the two nations in the beginning of this century has slowly been turned into a line of asymmetry through rapid development of infrastructure on its own side by China, thus providing it the capability of rapid deployment. India is fast trying to catch up but lags behind due to many domestic factors.

There was also an attempt to maintain peace through a series of border management and Confidence Building Measures, including the mechanism to resolve the boundary dispute. But China more often than not has been violating these because of its better capability to man the LAC viz a viz India. Any effort by the Indian Army to improve infrastructure on its side is objected to and resisted by the Chinese.

China believes in buying time and wearing out the opponent while building its own strengths. It has been able to achieve the asymmetry on the LAC as well as reorganise and modernise its army. In the process it has begun to be more assertive on its Claim Line by not just patrolling but by camping and digging in those areas. Of late, even in those areas where the claim line and the LAC coincide, China has begun to transgress in order to provide grazing grounds to the locals. It is testing Indias response so that it can enhance its claim line in those areas as well. In a nutshell, the PLA has become very strong in the mountainous sector through which the LAC runs. Our response has been to meet the Chinese threat through enhanced deployment and efforts to improve the infrastructure. In other words we have been trying to pit our strength against the enemys strength. China is happy with status quo and is not keen to resolve border issues. It feels confident of managing conflicts along the LAC. India will always be subjected to pinpricks at will by the dragon. Is this the way we want to tame the dragon and let it become a threat from a challenge? The answer obviously is No.

Strength begets respect and instils fear in potential adversaries. China also respects strength. Indias strength does not lie in the lofty trans-Himalayas but in the high seas. The lion cannot protect himself from traps and the fox cannot defend himself from wolves. One must, therefore, be a fox to recognise traps and a lion to frighten wolves, said Machiavelli, the famous Italian philosopher and writer. In relation to China, India needs to develop both the qualities.

If our strength is on the high seas and not in the mountainous regions, then why are we still obsessed with our frontiers? India must take advantage of its geostrategic location in the Indo-Pacific region and develop the maritime strength to tame the dragon. While doing all this we need to maintain our strategic autonomy.

(The author is a Jammu-based veteran, political commentator, columnist, security and strategic analyst.)

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Status quo is not the answer - Daily Pioneer