Monthly Archives: May 2020

Two senators have come under fire for suspiciously timed stock market trades that came right as the market tumbled in February amid the deepening coronavirus crisis: Republican Sens. Richard Burr of North Carolina and Kelly Loeffler of Georgia.

Both Burr and Loeffler have been accused of insider trading, and scandals such as this can have electoral repercussions, particularly if either is forced to resign. But what are the odds this might actually harm Republican chances of holding on to the Senate in November?

The GOP holds a 53-47 edge over the Democrats in the Senate, and while Democrats have a path to a majority, it is a narrow one. Assuming Democratic Sen. Doug Jones is unable to retain his seat in deeply Republican Alabama, Democrats will need to win four seats and also win the vice presidency to take back control. GOP incumbents facing reelection in at least four states Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina (the other seat, not Burrs) look to be in some danger, so Democrats might be able to thread the needle, especially if they can also win a seat in a state like Iowa or Montana. But it would certainly help Democratic chances if more Republican-held seats came into serious contention, which is where Burr and Loeffler might come in.

Lets start with Burr. As chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, he was privy to daily briefings on the coronavirus before it seriously hit the U.S. On Feb. 13, the senator sold off a huge share of his portfolio just before the stock market crashed. The Justice Department is now investigating Burr, and last Wednesday, the FBI seized a cellphone owned by the senator. On Thursday, Burr announced he was temporarily stepping aside as chairman of the Intelligence Committee during the ongoing investigation.

The question now is, will Burr resign? Burrs seat isnt up until 2022, but he could be forced out of office because of the scandal, and if he were, the timing of his departure could definitely affect the 2020 election.

Namely, if Burr resigned before Sept. 4, there would be a special election for the seat this November, which would add another battleground contest to the Senate map. North Carolinas other seat held by Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is already shaping up to be an expensive, hard-fought contest, so another special election in the Tar Heel State could mean double trouble for Republicans. Its no wonder Tillis has tried to separate himself from the embattled Burr, saying in April that Burr owes everybody an explanation for the stock sales. And public opinion is against Burr, too, at least based on polling from a couple of left-leaning firms. In two March surveys of North Carolina from Data for Progress and Public Policy Polling, half of the respondents said Burr should resign while only about a quarter said he shouldnt.

However, even if some Republicans might want him gone, it seems unlikely Burr would leave office soon enough to necessitate a special election this November, as Republicans really dont want another swing seat in play this year. But if Burrs position were to become untenable and he was forced to resign before Sept. 4, a Republican would still be appointed in his place even though North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper is a Democrat. North Carolina law requires the governor to appoint a replacement from a list of three candidates named by the incumbent party. (Regardless of when a resignation occurred, Cooper would have to appoint a Republican. But if the resignation happened after Sept. 4, the seat wouldnt be up for election until 2022.)

As for Loeffler, she was already up for election in Georgia this November, so a stock trading scandal could hit her hard. Loeffler has said that third-party account managers handle her portfolio, so she had no input in the trades, but the same day she attended a classified briefing about the coronavirus, she and her husband started selling millions of dollars worth of stock and invested in companies positioned to do well during the pandemic. Loeffler hasnt said whether the FBI has contacted her, but she provided records of the stock trades to the Justice Department, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Senate Ethics Committee.

Loeffler already appears to be quite vulnerable in her special election, too, which will be the first time she faces voters since Republican Gov. Brian Kemp appointed her to the Senate in January. A late April GOP internal poll conducted by Cygnal found that only 20 percent of voters had a favorable view of Loeffler compared to 47 percent who had an unfavorable impression. The survey also found her with just 11 percent support, well behind Republican Rep. Doug Collinss 29 percent. (If that seems especially low, remember the special election is a jungle primary in which all candidates run regardless of party.)

Granted, the Cygnal polls sponsor is allied to Collins, but even a survey conducted by Public Opinion Strategies on behalf of a group backing Loeffler ally Kemp found her polling at only 18 percent in the special election, about tied with Collins, who had 19 percent. For his part, Collins has been only too happy to try to connect Burrs case to Loeffler and attack Loeffler over her own stock dealings.

Its unclear, though, just how much Loefflers problems would harm the GOPs chances of retaining the seat. That is, just because Loeffler may be in trouble, it doesnt mean itll be easy for Democrats to take over the seat. After all, Georgia still leans toward the GOP and although former state Rep. Stacey Abrams came close to defeating Kemp in 2018, the last time a Democrat won a statewide election was in 2006. At this point, major election handicappers still think Republicans will hold the seat.

That said, with six Republicans and eight Democrats on the ballot in the jungle primary (plus six third-party or independent candidates), its also pretty unlikely that one candidate will win an outright majority in November, which means its likely headed to a runoff in January 2021 anyway. Based on early polling, Collins may be the most likely Republican to advance to a runoff, and he might be as good a bet or a better one given Loefflers troubles for Republicans to hold on to the seat, especially as Georgia Democrats have historically struggled in general election runoffs. In fact, with eight Democrats running, theres even a chance that it will be Collins and Loeffler who advance to the runoff, ensuring continued Republican control of the seat.

Its worth noting Burr and Loeffler arent the only senators who have come under scrutiny for their stock trades. Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein of California recently spoke with FBI investigators regarding deals made by her husband, and suspiciously timed stock moves made by Republican Sen. James Inhofe of Oklahoma have also received attention. However, both the California and Oklahoma seats would be very unlikely to switch parties California being very Democratic, Oklahoma being very Republican so even if Feinstein or Inhofe got into trouble, their problems would be very unlikely to affect the makeup of the Senate. Thats not necessarily the case for Burr and Loeffler especially Burr if he were to resign before Sept. 4. Nonetheless, its still a longshot that likely wont alter the Senate election math in 2020, either.

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Are These Scandals Going To Hurt Republican Chances Of Holding On To The Senate? - FiveThirtyEight

Polling information is very concerning, just as it was in 2016 when Trump ultimately won Michigan, said Jase Bolger, a former state House speaker. But, he added, 2020 is anything but normal. So, yeah, I dont like what I see in polling now. But, polling now wont decide the election in the fall.

Recent surveys have also shown Trump behind in Pennsylvania, where Republicans suffered across-the-board losses in 2018. State House Speaker Mike Turzai, however, argued the presidents populist approach would play well in industrial and manufacturing-heavy parts of the state and that voters would respond well to a message of economic recovery.

He thinks Trump can reverse the suburban losses Republicans suffered in the 2018 midterms, but urged the president to stick to an uplifting pitch.

The president has to stay positive in his economic message, Turzai said. I think if he does that he can be quite successful, and I think hell win Pennsylvania.

Others see reason for worry. Former Pennsylvania Rep. Phil English said the states Democratic governor would face backlash for his management of the coronavirus but that voters would likely focus any frustrations toward national Republicans in power.

I think there is too much blame-mongering going on, but that is predictable and I think that is going to complicate the political landscape for Republicans in Pennsylvania because theyre the party with the White House, so all negatives are going to first be set at their direction, said English.

Trump was the first GOP candidate to win Wisconsin since 1984. He prevailed by less than 1 percentage point, making it perhaps the most competitive of the Rust Belt states. The president has taken a keen interest in Wisconsin and campaigned aggressively for the GOP candidate in last weeks special election for a Republican-leaning congressional seat.

Tommy Thompson, who was Wisconsins longest-serving governor, said Trump would need to visit the state frequently. He urged Trump to focus on winning over female voters whom he's long struggled with, and to winning back the slice of senior voters who've soured on him during the pandemic.

Trump has got to come into Wisconsin and spend some quality time here, and more than once, said Thompson.

Trump campaign officials say their battleground polling has seen an uptick since the president scaled back his rambling daily briefings. They point to a recent CNN survey of 15 key states showing the president with an advantage. Trump was briefed last week on what advisers described as improving numbers.

The reelection campaign is engaging in a massive effort to take down Biden. It recently launched a TV and digital offensive centered largely around the former vice presidents dealings with China, where the virus originated. Trump's political operation has also been making calls to battleground voters making the case that Biden is soft on the authoritarian country.

Trump is also stepping up his public appearances, with trips to Arizona and Pennsylvania the past few weeks.

In our own data, President Trump is in solid shape in all our key states. We have only just begun to define Joe Biden using his own record, particularly on his softness on China, and its working, said Trump 2020 spokesman Tim Murtaugh. There is tremendous enthusiasm behind the president and he has built an unstoppable juggernaut of a campaign.

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Swing-state Republicans warn Trump's reelection is on shaky ground - POLITICO

State legislators are again criticizing Gov. Tom Wolf for not listening to the people after he vetoed a series of bills that would have reopened the state far more quickly than his phased approach does.

On Tuesday, Republican leaders in the state Senate and House said Wolfs approach is arbitrary and isnt what Pennsylvanians want.

The criticism was aimed at the veto of Senate Bill 327, which would given county governments the power to decide when to reopen; House Bill 2388, which would have given waivers for the operation of businesses like car dealers, hair salons and manufacturing operations; and House Bill 2412, which would have allowed legal services and real estate activities to resume.

Its disappointing, said state Rep. Martin Causer, R-Turtlepoint, It shows the governor is not listening to the people of Pennsylvania.

The legislature is working hard to get the state reopened safely and in a timely manner, Causer said, but Wolf wont consider any approach except his own. Counties deserve the right to be heard in their own best interests, the representative said.

The state is so diverse, Causer said. Our area is so different from southeast Pennsylvania. Just giving the counties some input would be so valuable.

The representative voiced some disbelief at certain aspects of Wolfs plan.

Theres a lot of politics in it, Causer said, explaining the legislature had approved a bill Tuesday morning to allow real estate to be sold. Wolf vetoed the bill, and then later in the day modified his executive order to allow for real estate to be sold.

Hes not communicating with the legislature, the representative said of Wolf. He should be working with the peoples representatives. I think we all see public safety as our number one issue. We all want to work together to tackle this pandemic.

Yet that isnt what he is seeing from Wolf.

So far the governor is making all the decisions, Causer said. Hes not including the legislature and thats a problem.

Causer said the legislature is trying to inject some common sense into the process.

Governor Wolf just flat out says no. Its just not reasonable.

Rep. Bryan Cutler, R-Lancaster, the House Republican leader, said the bills were passed with bipartisan support.

While millions of Pennsylvanians watch their livelihoods evaporate, the governor continues to arbitrarily choose who can thrive and who will fail. Wolf has determined and proved that he alone shall have the ultimate power over our states future, Cutler said.

Republican leadership in the state senate had similar condemnation for Wolfs veto.

The bills, recently approved by the General Assembly and formally sent to the governor Monday, would have brought back more than 200,000 jobs across Pennsylvania, according to the Republican leadership.

The governor continues to focus efforts on what we cannot and should not do instead of what we can do to get our economy moving again, said Senate President Pro Tempore Joe Scarnati, R-Brockway, and Senate Majority Leader Jake Corman, R-Bellefonte. Its unfortunate that he does not trust that employers can follow safety guidelines that will protect their workers and the public, who want these businesses open again.

With his veto pen, Gov. Wolf has struck down much-needed clarity and consistency that allows communities to continue to reopen safely within the guidelines of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and state Department of Health to protect lives and livelihoods, read the statement from the senate leaders.

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Republican legislators say Wolf not listening to the people - Bradford Era

Arizona candidates for Senate: Republican Sen. Martha McSally (left) and Democrat Mark Kelly.(Photo: The Republic, Arizona Daily Star)

From the Republican uh-oh department: Arizona Sen. Martha McSally is sliding in the polls, dropping four percentage points in a month.

McSally now trails Democrat Mark Kelly by 13 points, according to the latest tracking poll by OH Predictive Insights.

While the April poll of 600 likely voters favored Kelly 51% to McSallys 42%, in May its now 51%-38%.

The poll shows independents breaking more than 2-1 for Kelly.

McSally is doing terribly, pollster Mike Noble told me on Monday. Theres no way to find a bright spot on that one.

And thats not even the bad news for McSally.

The bad news comes from Maricopa County, where Republicans rule.

At least, they did rule, until Democrat Kyrsten Sinema defeated McSally there in 2018 -- stealing 88 mostly-suburban precincts that normally would go to the Republican nominee.

Arizona Sen. Martha McSally has lost ground to Democrat Mark Kelly, according to the latest tracking poll from OH Predictive Insights.(Photo: OH Predictive Insights)

McSally's declining supportlies within the 4 percent margin of error inthe May tracking poll, a blend of live and automated calls made betweenMay 9 to May 11.Buther Maricopa County numbers are a disaster.

In May 2019, this same tracking poll showed Kelly up over McSally, 46%-41%, among likely voters in Maricopa County.

In May 2020, Kelly has climbed to 54% in Maricopa County while McSally has dropped to 36%.

Just think about that for a moment. Kelly has gone from a five-point advantage in Maricopa County to an 18-point cruise.

Polling shows Arizona Sen. Martha McSally is getting killed in the one place she must win.(Photo: OH Predictive Insights)

Thats a stunnerwhen you consider that Maricopa County in recent years always hasgonefor Republicans (well, except for now-ex-state Superintendent Diane Douglas and McSally).

Morestunning still: the fact that the state's most populous countyis the one place that McSally must win if she wants to hang onto that Senate seat yet she has done nothing to appeal to the independents and moderate Republican voters who likely will decide this race.

"Maricopa County is the key for Republicans winning," Noble said. "It'sthekey to Trumps re-election but its also key for the Senate seat. Maricopa County is where the battle is at and right now its not going well for McSally."

Ive never understood McSallys strategy why she decided to become a Donald Trump pocket pal when it was obvious she lost in 2018 because she campaignedas a Donald Trump pocket pal.

Now shes facing a campaign thatwill be solely a referendum on Trump.

Whose approval rating, by the way, now stands at 45% in Arizona, according to the poll.

Of course, the four-point drop in McSallys numbers over the last month could be attributable to the campaign ads that are pummeling her.

The Lincoln Project, an anti-Trump conservative super PAC run in part by George Conway, began running attack ads against McSally two days before this poll went into the field. Democratic groups have been beating her up on the airwaves since last fall.

Republicans, meanwhile, have beenmostly silent on the campaign front. The Senate Leadership Fund, run by allies of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, plansto spend $9.2 million to try to boost McSally but not until the fall.

Meanwhile, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, faced with possible loss of the Senate, recently pushed the panic button,announcingplans tomove ahead in June with a $5.7 million ad campaign to try to save the appointed senator who nowtrails by double digits.

Me? I'm wondering what took them so long.

Reach Roberts at laurie.roberts@arizonarepublic.com.

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New poll shows Sen. Martha McSally losing ground to Mark Kelly and that's not even the bad news - AZCentral

Putting a twist on Ronald Reagans iconic and optimistic political ad, Morning in America, Republicans who hope to block President Donald Trumps reelection will begin airing an ad highlighting what they say is his inept response to the coronavirus pandemic.

The 60-second Mourning in America from the Lincoln Project highlights what it calls Trumps failure and how hes left states including Iowa weaker, sicker and teetering on the verge of economic turmoil.

In a time of deep suffering and loss, Donald Trump continues with his failed leadership and his inability to put the country before himself, said Jennifer Horn, co-founder of the Lincoln Project.

The ad will begin airing Wednesday in the Sioux City television market.

The Washington, D.C.-based Lincoln Project describes its mission as defeating both Trump and Trumpism. While the group has many policy differences with Democrats, the Lincoln Project argues that electing Democrats who support the Constitution over Republicans who do not is a worthy effort.

Its advisers include several GOP consultants as well as George Conway, the husband of Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway.

The ad contrasts Reagans 1984 Morning in America commercial that highlighted what his campaign saw as the positive impact of his first term and presented his optimistic vision of an America that was prosperous and peaceful.

Trumps dangerous incompetence has directly hurt the people of Iowa, Horn said. Across the country, too many Americans are mourning the loss of people they love the most. Millions have lost their livelihood and their security. Trump and his administration failed at every turn to take the response to COVID-19 seriously until it was too late; now we face a collective mourning for the America we once knew.

In Iowa, there have been more than 15,000 positive cases of COVID-19 and 367 deaths.

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However, Republican National Committee spokeswoman Preya Samsundar pushed back, saying that Democrats and Republicans alike have praised President Trump for his continued work to combat the coronavirus.

Whether its providing relief for Iowa families, farmers, or small business owners, President Trumps bold leadership is a reminder to the Hawkeye State that their safety and economic security is his number one priority, she said.

Comments: (319) 398-8375; james.lynch@thegazette.com

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Republicans hoping to oust Trump launch ad in Iowa - The Gazette

Cash-hemorrhaging U.S. states hoping for help from Washington face a daunting hurdle: Republican party opposition to bailing out states they say were profligate before the coronavirus crisis. And many of those states have voted Democratic in election years.

But a look at data on state budget balances and rainy day funds shows those at the top and at the bottom of the rankings were a mix of both red and blue electoral states.

And while the states with the most under-funded pensions were indeed more likely to be Democratic-led ones, the nations most shaky pension system belongs to Kentucky, home state of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

I actually dont think it is red state-blue state thing, as much as it might be politically convenient to frame it that way. Its really a question of moral hazard, said Rohit Kumar, U.S. tax policy services leader with audit and consulting firm PWC. Kumar worked for McConnell for 11 years and served as his domestic policy director.

But President Trump, in an April 27 Tweet, was less diplomatic. Why should the people and taxpayers of America be bailing out poorly run states (like Illinois, as example) and cities, in all cases Democrat run and managed, when most of the other states are not looking for bailout help? I am open to discussing anything, but just asking?

See: Coronavirus update: New outbreaks reported in states that plan to reopen soon as Trump says testing overrated

The call from states for money, though, has actually been bipartisan.

A May 13 letter from Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, a Republican, and Andrew Cuomo, a Democrat, asked for $500 billion in aid. And data from the nonpartisan Pew Charitable Trust shows many states were headed into the recession in decent budget shape.

According to a Pew analysis of National State Budget Officers data, 34 states had higher rainy day reserve funds at the end of 2019 than they had before the last recession. The median amount of those funds was enough to pay for 27.9 days worth of state operations, Pew said.

States had total reserves, not just rainy day funds, totaling about 13% of annual spending, up from 11% before the last recession, said Michael Leachman, vice president for state fiscal policy with the liberal Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

Its hard to argue states werent prepared or overspending, if you look at that data, he said.

The biggest rainy day funds were those states with oil or mineral production, like Wyoming, with almost 400 days of reserves, Alaska and North Dakota. The other two in the top five were New Mexico and Texas.

At the other end of the spectrum, Kansas and Illinois had zero days of reserves, the lowest of the 50 states. They were followed by Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Kentucky.

Kumar said Republicans worry any money sent to states will be used, either directly or indirectly, to prop up under-funded state employee pension plans. That view was echoed by Sen. Rick Scott, a Florida Republican and former governor.

We sit here and live within our means, and then New York, Illinois and California and other states dont, and were supposed to go bail them out? Thats not right, he told reporters last week.

Pew data released in 2019 for pensions in 2017 actually had New York with the fourth-best funded pension, at a funded ratio of 94.5%. The funded ratio is the amount of assets on hand in proportion total projected liabilities. Floridas funded ratio in 2017 was 15th among the states.

Wisconsin had the highest ratio, at 102.6%, followed by South Dakota, Tennessee, New York and Idaho. In descending order, the least funded state pensions belonged to Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, New Jersey and Kentucky. Kentuckys funded ratio was just 33.9%, while Illinois was 38.4%.

Kumar said the focus on pensions shows their concern is less about how individual states vote.

The Kentucky data, to me, is a proving point for that premise, he said.

The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Leachman said pensions should not be part of the debate over state aid. States have short-term needs that will require cash, like responding to the coronavirus epidemic and avoiding layoffs of critical employees, while the pension issue is a long-term one.

We can talk about some of the pension long-term liability issues that some states have, but its a distraction from what has caused the fiscal crisis that states face in funding their basic public services right now, which is why the states need the fiscal relief, he said.

Only 4.7% of state general funds are used to make states required contributions to their pension plans, he said.

See: States reopen after coronavirus lockdowns: New Jersey, Delaware beaches to reopen for holiday weekend

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Republicans say they dont want to target wasteful states, but what are they going to do with red states on that list? - MarketWatch

A remote access 19th state Senate District Republican convention Monday endorsed Hebron candidate Steve Weir in his bid to unseat four-term incumbent Democrat Cathy Osten.

Weir, owner of American Integrity Restoration, a disaster cleaning and restoration business, and a former Glastonbury police officer, secured the partys endorsement over Kelley Peck, a Columbia estate and probate attorney. The 19th State Senate District consists of10 eastern Connecticut towns along the Route 2 corridor, spanning Marlborough to Ledyard.

Weir was born and raised in Glastonbury and has lived in Hebron for the past 20 years. He and his wife, Allegra, have three daughters ages 11, 15 and 18.

I entered this race because I believe in Connecticut, its promise and its people, Weir said in a press release announcing the endorsement. For years, our state government has been plagued by mismanagement, fiscal irresponsibility, and a lack of accountable leadership that has caused declining opportunities and dwindling confidence in Connecticut.

Peck said Tuesday she does not plan to petition for a primary.

I fully support the partys nomination, she said.

Weir was nominated by State Rep. Mike France, R-Ledyard, citing Weirs drive and determination to succeed, his experience and leadership.

Amy Lounsbury of Sprague called attention to Ostens defeat in the Sprague first selectman race last November and called on the party to unite behind Weir to defeat Osten in this falls election.

Steve knows hard decisions will needto be made in Hartford in order for us to recover, and he will be an ally of the hardworking men and women of eastern Connecticut through and through, Lounsbury said in the press release.

The 19th state Senate District covers Columbia, Franklin, Hebron, Lebanon, Ledyard, Lisbon, Marlborough, Montville, Norwich, and Sprague.

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Hebron Republican endorsed to challenge Osten - News from southeastern Connecticut - theday.com

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp will be permitted to hand-pick the state's next Supreme Court Justice after that same high court ruled last week that a special election set for Tuesday could be canceled.

Kemp and his Secretary of State, Brad Raffensberger, moved to cancel votingin the stateearlier this year after state Supreme Court Justice Keith Blackwell announced he would step down after his six-year term expires at the end of 2020.

Taking the matter of who should succeed Blackwell into his own hands will allow Kemp, a Republican, to appoint another right-wing judge to serve on the highest court in the state for at least two years. Like the U.S. Supreme Court, the nine-member Georgia Supreme Courtthough most of its member recused themselves from ruling on this caseenjoys a Republican majority.

Both the Democratic and Republican former lawmakers who were running for the seatJohn Barrow and Beth Beskinfiled lawsuits to have the election reinstated, but the state SupremeCourt sided with Kemp last week in a 6-2 vote.

Kemp narrowly won his 2018 gubernatorial race while serving asSecretary of State,a role in which he purged 53,000 mostly African-American voters from the state rolls.

On Tuesday, radio host Joe Madison called the governor's move an attempt at "rigging" another state election.

Six of the state's Supreme Court justices recused themselves from the case, forcing fivelower court judges to participate in handing down the ruling.

As Ian Millhiser explained at Vox, the Georgia state Constitution makes Kemp and Raffensberger's actionstechnically legal:

The court's decision inBarrowturns on the tension betweentwo provisions of the Georgia Constitution. The first provides that "all Justices of the Supreme Court and the Judges of the Court of Appeals shall be elected on a nonpartisan basis for a term of six years," and that the terms of these judges "shall begin the next January 1 after their election." Because this language refers to "all Justices," it suggests that an election must be held to fill Blackwell's seat, and that whoever prevails in that election shall join the state Supreme Court on the first of January.

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But a separate provision of the state constitution permits the governor to temporarily fill vacancies on the state Supreme Court, and it provides that "an appointee to an elective office shall serve until a successor is duly selected and qualified and until January 1 of the year following the next general election which is more than six months after such person's appointment."

"The second provision seems to suggest that an appointed justice may serve until January 1, 2023and longer, if that justice eventually wins the 2022 election," wrote Millhiser.

Justice Brenda Holbert Trammell cast one of the dissenting votes, writing in her opinion that while she does not object to gubernatorial appointments overall, the people of Georgia should have retained their right to vote for their next state Supreme Court justice.

"In this instance, when the resignation will not result in a vacancy in the office until (originally) almost six months after the election, I cannot in good conscience agree that the election should be cancelled and the will of the people thrust aside as 'fruitless and nugatory,'" wrote Holbert Trammell.

As Daniel Nichanian, editor of The Appeal, tweeted, Kemp also recently acted to suspend a county race in order to retain a District Attorney position for the Republican Party.

When Athens-Clarke and Oconee County DA Brian Mauldin, a Democrat, announced in February that he would not seek another term, Mauldin asked the governor to appoint an interim DA "promptly" so former state lawmakerDeborah Gonzalez, who was planning to run as a progressive reformer, could run against the interim DA in November.

"Kemp, however, did no such thing," wrote Jay Willis at The Appeal last week. "By failing to act by May 3, six months before Election Day 2020, he ensured that whoever he eventually picks won't face a challenger until Election Day 2022 at the earliest. Gonzalez, the would-be reformer, will have to wait until then for a shot."

"As governor, Kemp has pivoted from hollowing out democratic elections to simply cancelling them," added Willis.

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Think Trump and Republicans Wouldn't Try to Cancel an Election? Look at What GOP in Georgia Just Pulled Off - Common Dreams

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.

So far, Americans have largely supported using social distancing to slow the spread of the new coronavirus. According to a Washington Post/University of Maryland poll published this week, most Americans agree that its necessary to wear a mask, stay at home when possible, avoid gatherings and keep 6 feet away from others in public. And while Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say these measures are important, sizable majorities in both parties still agree that they are necessary. But while Americans are mostly on the same page about current social distancing measures, there are also signs that they increasingly disagree about where the crisis is headed, with Democrats saying the worst is yet to come and Republicans saying the worst is behind us.

According to a CNN poll released this week, nearly three-quarters of Democrats said the worst of the crisis is still ahead of us, while only about a quarter of Republicans said the same. This marked a 15 percentage-point drop among Democrats since CNN last asked the question in April, and a 44-point drop among Republicans. A YouGov/Economist poll also found a similar divide this week; 58 percent of Democrats said the pandemic is going to get worse compared with only 20 percent of Republicans. (The pollster included a third choice, We are currently in the worst part of the pandemic, which just over 20 percent of both Democrats and Republicans chose.) And a daily tracking poll conducted by Navigator Research also found that between mid-April and early May, the share of Americans who thought the worst was yet to come declined sharply. However, that number has been ticking back up again since May 4, which may reflect increased concern that the virus will spread as more states begin to ease restrictions on businesses and public gatherings.

The polls this week also show that Americans are adjusting their expectations about when the need for social distancing is likely to end. According to the Washington Post/University of Maryland poll, two-thirds of Americans think that it will be at least the end of July before people can safely gather in groups of 10 or more, up from 45 percent who thought so a month ago. This months total includes 80 percent of Democrats and 54 of Republicans. And this weeks YouGov/Economist poll found that a 47 percent plurality including a third of Republicans and almost two-thirds of Democrats believe it will be at least September before it is safe to end social distancing measures.

Concerns about catching the virus have stayed fairly consistent over the month of May so far. According to FiveThirtyEights coronavirus poll tracker, the share of Americans who say they are somewhat or very concerned that they or someone they know will get sick stayed mostly steady at about 68 percent.

And the share of Americans who say theyre concerned about the viruss impact on the economy has also stayed about the same hovering at around 87 percent for the past six weeks.

The share of Americans who approve of Trumps handling of the virus response, however, has declined about 4 points over the past month, though in the shorter term his rating remains essentially unchanged, with 43.3 percent approving of the job hes doing handling the pandemic this week and 43.5 percent approving last week.

Attitudes toward Trumps handling of the crisis are, expectedly, very partisan, with a majority of Republicans approving and a majority of Democrats opposed. Feelings seem to be more mixed about leaders outside the federal government, however according to a new Pew Research poll, state and local officials, on average, continue to enjoy more bipartisan support than Trump. However, Republicans appear to be souring on local and state officials work faster than Democrats are. For instance, since March, the share of Republicans who think their local elected officeholders are doing a good or excellent job has declined by 12 points, while the share of Democrats who say the same has remained unchanged at 66 percent. Likewise, Republican approval of the job state officials were doing declined by 12 percentage points, while Democratic approval dropped by only 5 points. Additionally, Republicans, who were more likely than Democrats to rate public health officials such as those at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention favorably in March were less likely to do so now. Sixty-eight percent of Republicans said health officials are doing a good or excellent job, down 16 points since March, while about three-quarters of Democrats felt health officials were doing a good job in both polls.

However, at this point, the majority of Americans are not yet frequenting public places despite growing disagreement on where the coronavirus crisis is headed next. A Morning Consult poll conducted last week asked Americans about whether theyre going to public places and socializing with others, and it didnt find much of a partisan gap in reported behavior. So for now at least, it seems like many Americans are staying put, although that might change in the coming weeks.

According to FiveThirtyEights presidential approval tracker, 43.6 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 52.0 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -8.4 points). At this time last week, 43.3 percent approved and 51.4 percent disapproved (for a net approval rating of -8.1 points). One month ago, Trump had an approval rating of 44.3 percent and a disapproval rating of 51.4 percent, for a net approval rating of -7.1 points.

In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Democrats currently lead by 7.7 percentage points (48.9 percent to 41.2 percent). A week ago, Democrats led Republicans by 7.9 points (48.5 percent to 40.6 percent). At this time last month, voters preferred Democrats by 7.8 points (48.6 percent to 40.8 percent).

Check out all the polls weve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections.

CORRECTION (May 15, 2020, 10:01 a.m.): A previous version of this article reversed President Trumps job approval numbers: 43.6 percent of Americans approve of the job hes doing and 52.0 percent disapprove, not the other way around.

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Democrats Say The Worst Of The Coronavirus Is Yet To Come. Republicans Say The Worst Is Over. - FiveThirtyEight

Republicans appeared poised to win two congressional seats one in Wisconsin and one in California in special election races that are being watched closely as preludes to the general election in November as many states will move to mail-in voting amid the coronavirus pandemic.

In Wisconsin, the Republican Tom Tiffany notched an easy victory, in a reliably red district. In California, early results indicated the Republican Mike Garcia is on track to retake a seat that Democrats had flipped in 2018. Both seats will be up for election again in November.

The California vote was based almost entirely on mailed-in ballots, and the full results likely wont be clear for days. Officials will accept ballots postmarked by election day, even if they arrive up to three days later.

Whoever wins the California special election would fill the seat of the former US representative Katie Hill, who resigned amid scandal in late 2019. The circumstances of Hills resignation she quit amid allegations that she had an affair with a staffer, and after private photos of her had been published online without her consent had brought national attention to the race. Donald Trump, who endorsed Garcia and alleged that the election was rigged because of the opening of a new voting center in the district, also ensured that the race was closely watched, especially by Democrats who believed it would be a referendum on the president.

On Wednesday morning, Garcia, a former navy fighter pilot, was ahead of the Democratic California state legislator Christy Smith by 55.9% to 44.1%, preliminary results from the California secretary of states office said.

It is looking extremely good, Garcia said on a conference call. I wont give a victory speech tonight. Well save that for hopefully tomorrow night as the data comes in.

Smith earned the endorsements of Barack Obama and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. Hills unpopularity in the district, post-scandal, had been a hurdle for her campaign. Prior to the election, the Cook Political Report changed its assessment of the race from lean Democratic to a tossup as the pandemic shut down traditional campaigning through door-knocking and town halls.

Regardless of the outcome, Democrats are hopeful about Smiths chances in the November election. The electorate will be very different then, said Rose Kapolczynski, a Democratic strategist based in Los Angeles. And I still think Smith will have a strong chance.

It is wise to avoid projecting too much about the November elections based on this race, said Paul Mitchell, with the campaign research firm Political Data Inc. To do so would be like predicting the championship based on the results of two-on-two basketball game before the finals, Mitchell said.

Traditionally, older, white, and Republican voters are overrepresented in special elections, Mitchell said. Younger and minority voters, who lean Democratic, are more likely to vote in larger numbers in November.

In Wisconsin, Tiffany, a state senator endorsed by Trump, easily won a special congressional election in a heavily conservative, rural Wisconsin district. But Democrats are likely to watch his margin of victory and consider it evidence of that partys gains if Tiffanys opponent Tricia Zunker performs better than the 20-point defeat the Democrats faced in district in 2018. Preliminary results show Tiffany leading by 14 points.

For Trump to win re-election, red areas have to get redder to balance out blue areas getting bluer, said the Wisconsin Democratic party spokeswoman, Courtney Beyer.

But Tiffany dismissed the argument. Any time you lose by 14 points, I dont think thats a moral victory, he said. This is a decisive victory here.

Tiffany will replace the former reality TV star Sean Duffy, a Republican who retired in September. The district has been vacant since Duffys retirement.

Zunker, the president of the Wausau school board, was trying to become the first Native American from Wisconsin elected to Congress. She pulled in big-name endorsements including Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, but the numbers were against her. The district has been under Republican control since 2011 and was redistricted to more heavily favor Republicans.

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Republicans appear on track to win two congressional seats - The Guardian