Monthly Archives: May 2020

Business closures and layoffs across the U.S., along with a gross domestic product that turned negative for the first time since 2014, have raised concerns about the depth and length of the recession that the U.S. likely finds itself in amid the novel coronavirus.

One challenge with defining a recession: It can only be declared after data can confirm that theres been one. As a result, the country may already be in recession that wont be officially declared until months from now.

The r-word has raised a number of questions: what is a recession, who gets to define it, and how do we know if we are in one right now?

A recession is generally perceived to be two consecutive quarters of negative growth in U.S. production, measured as real GDP.

But the National Bureau of Economic Research, which has a dating committee dedicated to declaring recessions, makes it clear that there are other criteria that can constitute a recession. The committee looks for a significant decline in economic activity across an economy, which covers not just GDP but factors like real income and employment, as well as retail and manufacturing sales.

For example, the dot-com bubble in 2001 was an NBER-defined recession even though there were not two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. But gross domestic income contracted for three consecutive quarters, which led the NBER to ultimately declare the period an official recession.

Because the NBER relies on backward-looking data to determine the state of the economy, declaring a recession can take as long as 11 months. That was the case for the financial crisis; the NBER declared on December 1, 2008 that the recession had started almost a year earlier, in December 2007.

One reason why calling a recession can take so long: in order to determine the beginning of a period of significant decline, the committee has to identify the peak of economic activity at which the recessionary conditions began gripping the economy.

By definition, that means the committee has to wait for months or quarters of data showing negative effects before it can determine that a specific point in time was the peak of the now-compromised economic cycle.

Sometimes economic conditions make it easier to determine that the economy has fallen from its peak. The Volcker shock of 1981, which triggered a nearly year-and-a-half recession, was only six months deep when the NBER declared July 1981 as the peak.

The consensus appears to be that the U.S. is already in one.

Goldman Sachs wrote April 27 that GDP figures for Q1 2020 will likely be the weakest in a decade, thus confirming an economy already in deep recession.

Economists were saying since March that the U.S. may have already slipped into a recession.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told Yahoo Finance on March 31 that a downturn is unavoidable when millions of people are losing their jobs.

What we do know for sure is that if we're not already in the recession right now, we will be and I expect we already are, Daly said.

Wells Fargo wrote March 25 that it expects the deliberate stoppage of large portions of the U.S. economy to negatively impact all four of the NBERs evaluation criteria: real production, real income, employment, and sales.

The U.S. economy is headed for imminent recession even if the four indicators used by the dating committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research do not yet show it, the Wells Fargo note stated.

A man walks past mannequin heads wearing masks in the window of a small boutique advertising availability of masks, gloves, and other pandemic necessities amid the Coronavirus outbreak in Arlington, Virginia, on April 27, 2020. (Photo by Olivier DOULIERY / AFP) (Photo by OLIVIER DOULIERY/AFP via Getty Images)

Among the 32 recessions defined by the NBER (dating back to 1857), the average length of a recession is 17.5 months.

Story continues

The NBER has the same protocol for declaring the end of a recession as it does for the beginning of one.

It relies on months or quarters of data to determine that the economy reached the bottom, or the trough, of the recession. During the process, the NBER looks at the same criteria that it used when declaring an economic peak.

The same lag applies to declaring a trough. For the last financial crisis, the NBER declared the trough as having happened in June 2009, but did not come to that conclusion until well over a year later, in September of 2010.

Brian Cheung is a reporter covering the Fed, economics, and banking for Yahoo Finance. You can follow him on Twitter@bcheungz.

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Despite the stock market volatility in recent months set off by the coronavirus pandemic, the Oracle of Omaha declared passive investing isnt dead.

Warren Buffett stood by his defense of index funds, which are mutual funds that track market indices, such as the Standard & Poors 500 index. These investments arent actively traded by a wealth manager.

If you say the day of investing in America is over, I would disagree quite violently, Buffett said during the 2020 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders meeting. Theres something special about index funds.

Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, speaks to the press as he arrives at the 2019 annual shareholders meeting in Omaha, Nebraska, May 4, 2019. (Photo: JOHANNES EISELE/AFP via Getty Images)

He remains so passionate about index funds that its a key component of his estate planning.

Well I can tell you I havent changed my will and it directs that my widow would have 90% of the funds in index funds, Buffett said. I think its better advice than people are generally getting from people that are paid a lot to give advice.

Buffett extolled the low fees offered by index funds along with their profitable performance. He also alluded to some financial advisors who focus more on selling investments than seeing them grow.

Buffett alluded to some financial advisors who focus more on selling investments than seeing them grow. (Photo: Getty Creative)

One side has high fees and they think they can pick out stocks and the other side has low fees, Buffett said. I know which side is going to win over time.

A recent study by Index Fund Advisors, an investment firm that showed that just two of Vanguard's actively managed funds could outperform the market.

While he said not all advisors dont know what theyre doing, he cautioned investors to understand that many are sales-driven.

Youre dealing with an industry where it pays to be a great salesperson, Buffett said. Theres a lot more money in selling than in actually managing, if you look into the essence of investment management.

Dhara is a writer forCashayand Yahoo Money. Follow her on Twitter@dsinghx.

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Buffett: 'I would disagree quite violently' with notion that passive investing is dead - Yahoo Finance

Real, live sports on TV! To prepare, heres a primer on the Korea Baseball Organization.

The KBO began playing in 1982, and is Koreas oldest team-based sports league. Its also the most popular, starting with six teams and expanding to 10 by 2015.

Each season consists of 144 games, and every team plays each other 16 times over the course of the year. This is different than MLB, primarily because there are fewer teams. Every MLB team doesnt face every other team during the season, and the number of games played varies depending on scheduling, league, and division.

The same goes for the playoffs, too fewer teams means a different structure, but the KBO is even more different, choosing to put a greater emphasis on regular season results. The top five teams make the playoffs, and the top three teams get byes of varying lengths. The team with the best record in the KBO gets an automatic bye until the best-of-seven Korean Series, which is the KBOs yearly championship series.

To kick off the four-phase playoffs, the fourth- and fifth-place teams face off in a best-of-three series, but theres an interesting wrinkle: the fourth-place team gets an automatic 1-0 series lead, meaning it could be over in just one game. The winner of that series plays the third-place team in the best-of-five quarterfinals, and that winner plays the second-place team in the semifinals. The well-rested first-place team takes on the only other team left standing in the Korean Series.

The KBO is known as a high-offense league. At the end of the 2018 regular season, the league-wide batting average was .286. Over in MLB during the same season, the league-wide batting average was .248 a difference of nearly 40 points! Such an active offensive environment affects pitching as well. An average KBO ERA in 2018 was 5.17, while in MLB it was 4.15.

The reason were looking at stats from 2018 is because the KBO introduced a new de-juiced ball in 2019 that was meant to dampen some (but not all) of the sky-high offense that the league is known for. It did succeed in that, and because the KBO intentionally announced that it was changing the ball, everyone knew what was going on from the start. (MLB should take a few notes.) The overall KBO batting average for 2019 was .267, a 20-point drop from 2018. Pitchers fared even better, with the average ERA falling an entire run to 4.17.

The slight (intentional) drop in offense hasnt changed the spirit of the KBO. Being a league with a history of lots of hits and home runs means a culture of bat flips has been cultivated and nurtured. The KBO is the home to some of the worlds most enormous and impressive bat flips.

Beyond the run-scoring environment, the main differences between the KBO and MLB are the designated hitter and the existence of ties. In the KBO, the designated hitter is universal across all 10 teams, meaning theres no switching depending on the park theyre playing in. Games are also declared a tie after 12 innings of play.

Every team has a few foreign-born players, but unlike MLB, there are restrictions on how many can be on a teams roster. Each club is limited to just three.

Now to meet the teams. Heres a rundown of the KBOs 10 clubs, based on the order they finished in 2019. (Youll note that KBO teams are named not for their geographic areas, but for the corporation that owns them.)

Hometown: Seoul

Owned by: Doosan, a massive South Korean conglomerate that deals in construction equipment, electrical power, and infrastructure, among many (many) other things.

Mascot: A steel robot bear.

Are they good? Yes they are. The Bears, based in Seoul, were the 2019 KBO champions, winning the Korean Series for the third time in five years. The Bears were also won the very first Korean Series back in 1982, the KBOs founding year.

Former MLB players: Raul Alcantara, Jose Miguel Fernandez, Chris Flexen

Hometown: Incheon

Owned by: SK Group, an enormous South Korean conglomerate thats involved in the chemical, petroleum, and energy industries, as well as mobile wireless, high-speed internet, construction, shipping, and more.

Mascot: The Wyverns use the goddess Athena and an owl, but they also use their namesake, a wyvern, which is a mythical two-legged dragon that has a snake tail. To celebrate the opening of the 2019 season after winning the 2018 Korean Series, the team used augmented reality to bring a wyvern right into the stadium. It looks fun yet also terrifying.

Are they good? Mostly. The Wyverns, founded in 2000, won three Korean Series titles in four seasons between 2007 and 2010, and have made the playoffs six times since then. They also have third baseman Jeong Choi, one of the best infielders of his generation. Hes 33 and about to start his 16th KBO season.

Former MLB players: Nick Kingham, Ricardo Pinto, Jamie Romak

Owned by: Not a conglomerate! The Heroes are the only KBO team not owned by a giant conglomerate or company, and is instead owned by a group of individuals. They sell the naming rights for the team, which belonged to Nexen Tire from 2010 to 2018, and now belong to Kiwoom Securities.

Hometown: Seoul

Mascot: A guardian robot named DomDomI, and two silver hero creatures named Dongeuli and Tuckdori or Teokdori, which apparently translates to Mr. Jaw. A video of this mascot dancing at a game might give you a clue as to why.

Are they good? They are now. The Heroes, reborn in 2008 from the ashes of the defunct Hyundai Unicorns, are continuing to reap the benefits of a long rebuild that wasnt exactly voluntary. It began in 2008 when the team was forced to trade star players for cash to pay the remainder of its new team founding fee to the KBO. The rebuild ended after the 2012 season and in the seven years since, theyve made the playoffs six times but theyve never managed to win the Korean Series.

Former MLB players: Jake Brigham, Eric Jokisch, Taylor Motter, ByungHo Park

Hometown: Seoul

Owned by: Multinational South Korean conglomerate LG Corporation. LG operates in chemicals and telecom, but is known in the US for electronics.

Mascot: Baseball robot twins Lucky and Star

Are they good? Occasionally. Theyre one of the KBOs original six teams (they played as the MBC Blue Dragons from 1982-1989), but theyve won the Korean Series just twice (1990 and 1994). Since their last championship theyve been all over the place, including a rough, decade-long stretch of zero playoff appearances and zero winning seasons. Theyve made the playoffs twice in the past five years, including a trip to the quarterfinals in 2019.

Former MLB players: Casey Kelly, Hyun-Soo Kim, Tyler Wilson

Hometown: Changwon

Owned by: NCSoft, a South Korean video game developer responsible for games like Blade & Soul, Guild Wars, Lineage, and Master X Master.

Mascot: Dendi the tyrannosaurus and Seri the brontosaurus. Dendi can seriously dance, and Seri looks awesomely weird with his crazy giant neck and enormous arms.

Are they good? Yes, mostly. The Dinos, Eric Thames former KBO team, have only existed since 2013 and havent won any championships yet. Theyve gotten close though, making it to the playoffs in just their second year of existence and all the way to the Korean Series in 2016. Theyve actually made the playoffs in all but two of their seven seasons, and should have two of their superstars, outfielder Sung-bum Na and catcher Eui-ji Yang, ready to start the season.

Former MLB players: Aaron Altherr, Drew Rucinski, Mike Wright

Hometown: Suwon

Owned by: KT Corporation, the largest telephone company in South Korea. KT also deals in wireless telecom and high-speed internet.

Mascot: Adorable, big-mouthed monsters Vic and Ddory, whose names are meant to be pronounced together as victory. When the team was founded in 2013, this is the video the team released to introduce the world to Vic and Ddory.

Are they good? Historically (which only goes back to the teams first season in 2015), the Wiz have been pretty bad. They finished dead least in 2015, 2016, and 2017, and improved one spot to 9th place in 2018. Their 6th place, 71-71-2 finish in 2019 is the best in the teams entire (short) history. They finished just two games short of making the playoffs for the first time, and could make that leap into uncharted territory in 2020.

Former MLB players: William Cuevas, Odrisamer Despaigne, Jae-Gyun Hwang

Hometown: Gwangju

Owned by: The Kia Motors Corporation, the enormous automotive manufacturer.

Mascot: A male tiger and a lady tiger. The animated versions have the male tiger as a baseball player and the lady tiger as a cheerleader with a small crown on her head, but in costume theyre just very, very energetic dancers.

Are they good? Not really. Though they are the most successful team in KBO history with 11 Korean Series titles, only two of them have come since 2000. While the most recent was in 2017, their last few seasons havent inspired a ton of confidence. They made the playoffs in 2018 but got bounced in the first round, and they finished in seventh place in 2019. Looking at the last 20 years, theres more mediocrity than championships.

Former MLB players: Aaron Brooks, Drew Gagnon, Preston Tucker, Matt Williams (manager)

Hometown: Daegu

Owned by: Cheil Worldwide, a subsidiary of Samsung. Cheil is a marketing company and advertising agency with clients like Lego, GE, Nestle, and Microsoft.

Mascot: A male lion named Bleo, a female lion named Pinkleo, a girl lion named Lenny, and a little boy lion named Laon. This ragtag group (or possibly family?) of baseball-obsessed lions are from another planet, Theres a six-minute compilation of their in-person antics on Youtube, and since were all hurting for sports-based entertainment, give it a watch.

Are they good? Not now, but they have a history of excellence. Theyve appeared in 17 Korean Series since 1982, more than any other team, and their eight championships are more than every team but one. They also won four straight Korean Series from 2011-2014, but its been pretty bleak since then. They havent been to the playoffs since 2015.

Former MLB players: David Buchanan, Ben Lively, Seunghwan Oh, Tyler Saladino

Hometown: Daejeon

Owned by: Hanwha Group, which originally started in explosives and expanded into chemicals, construction, and financial services.

Mascot: Two eagles that are red-orange to symbolize fire, which pays tribute to Hanwhas beginnings in explosives. They look a little bit like chickens, dont they?

Are they good? No. The Eagles have existed since 1986 and won the Korean Series in 1999, but theyve made the playoffs just once since 2008. Even though that happened in 2018, they immediately went back to losing after a surprising third-place finish. They finished ninth in 2019.

Former MLB players: Chad Bell, Jared Hoying, Warwick Saupold

Hometown: Busan

Owned by: Lotte Corporation, which owns businesses in the fast food industry, candy manufacturing, hotels, construction, industrial chemicals, and more.

Mascot: A giant was their mascot from 1982 until 2006, but then they changed to two seagulls named Pini and Noori.

Are they good? No, they are not. They have a run of playoff appearances in the recent past, but no championships beyond their two in 1984 and 1992. From 1997 to 2007 they finished in eighth place six times and seventh place two times. Their forecast for 2020 isnt so bleak, as theyre hoping for bounce-back years from several of their players.

Former MLB players: Dae-ho Lee, Dixon Machado, Adrian Sampson, Dan Straily

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(Bloomberg) -- With meat shortages roiling the U.S., some Wendys Co. restaurants have taken burgers -- their hallmark item -- off the menu.

Customers have taken to Twitter to complain they couldnt order burgers from the restaurant, which touts its beef as fresh and never frozen in its marketing.

A check on Wendys app showed that only chicken items were available for takeout or delivery orders from at least some of its stores in California. The situation has prompted a number of customers to ask Wheres the beef? on social media, invoking a Wendys catch phrase from the 1980s that poked fun of the small burgers sold by other chains.

North Americas meat-supply chain has fallen apart as outbreaks shutter slaughterhouses, heightening the prospect that pork, beef and chicken may go missing from grocery shelves and restaurant menus. About a dozen slaughterhouses shut last month because of infections among employees jammed together on processing lines.

Wendys spent years establishing itself as the first major fast-food chain to offer fresh-never-frozen beef. Rivals such as McDonalds have followed suit. Its a shift that has left some companies more vulnerable to disruptions to Americans beef supply chain than ones that still rely on imports from Australia and other countries.

For Wendys, the shortages appear to have only affected some areas so far. Items such as the Baconator bacon cheeseburger, for example, were still available to order in Chicago.

Wendys didnt immediately respond to a request for comment.

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Meat Shortages Leave Wendys Diners Asking, Wheres the Beef? - Yahoo Finance

Perhaps the best way to judge a first-round NFL draft pick is by listening to the team when it comes time to exercise fifth-year options.

Mistakes can be made over declining a fifth-year option. Kyle Fuller of the Chicago Bears and Jack Conklin of the Tennessee Titans are two notable examples of players cashing in after the fifth year was declined. Its hard for teams to hide. They have to make a decision in early May before a players fourth season whether they want to keep team control for a fifth year.

In the case of the 2017 draft, the top five isnt looking so hot. Tennessee Titans receiver Corey Davis had his fifth-year option declined Friday, an admission that he hasnt played up to his draft status as the fifth overall selection.

Most of the top five hasnt.

Tennessee Titans wide receiver Corey Davis did not have his fifth-year option picked up. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

Myles Garrett of the Cleveland Browns had his fifth-year option picked up, which was no surprise. The first pick of the 2017 draft might not be a superstar yet fans probably know him better for something other than his play on the field but he has been good.

The next four picks were rough.

Davis and San Francisco 49ers defensive tackle Solomon Thomas (No. 3 overall) did not have their fifth-year options exercised. Chicago Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky and Jacksonville Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette havent heard from their respective teams yet but it would be no surprise if theyre declined too.

Fournette was reportedly on the trade block this offseason. Though he wasnt moved, its hard to argue he has lived up to the hype. He has been underwhelming on the field and the Jaguars have had issues with him off the field. It would be surprising if his fifth year was picked up.

Trubisky is more complicated. The Bears used the second overall pick on him. He had a solid 2018 season and regressed in 2019. The Bears traded for Nick Foles in the offseason, though maintain Trubisky still is ahead of Foles on the depth chart. Because Trubisky is a quarterback, and teams often err on the side of overpaying mediocre QBs rather than start over, Trubisky having his fifth year exercised cant be ruled out even though the Bears havent shown much confidence in him.

The deadline for a decision is May 4.

The rest of the first round in 2017 has some stars, which makes those missed picks in the top five look even worse. Weve heard enough about the Bears passing on Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson for a lifetime. Fournette went ahead of Christian McCaffrey. And so on.

Cincinnati Bengals receiver John Ross, the ninth pick, will probably have his option declined. Cornerback Gareon Conley, drafted by the Las Vegas Raiders and already traded, wont have his fifth-year option exercised. Neither will Takk McKinley of the Atlanta Falcons or injured linebacker Reuben Foster, who was cut by the San Francisco 49ers for off-field issues and picked up by the Washington Redskins. This week Taco Charlton and Charles Harris, first-round picks of the Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins, were cut and traded respectively.

There are hits and misses in every first round, and 2017 had its share of stars. Just not many from the first five picks, which is a significant setback to those teams.

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Corey Davis' fifth-year option declined, 4 of top 5 picks from 2017 draft have been disappointing - Yahoo Sports