From Juan Soto to Nick Pivetta, a 23-round draft guide to the safest team roto-money can buy – The Athletic

Skill and playing time are the two major building blocks of projections. The elusive element is risk. We cannot really measure it, nor accurately quantify it at least not in the way we do with skill and playing time but it affects the entire process. The best we can do is identify those variables that might impact our projections and decide whether each one is something we want to consider.

Risk tolerance is an individual decision. Im not going to tell you how much roster risk is too much. But what we can do is look at each player and assess his risk profile. Once again, here are the variables I like to look at:

Health: I start every player with a 25 percent risk of spending some time on the IL. By seasons end, history shows that more than 50 percent will end up there. So this variable is the one I tend to look at the most.

Experience: Players are unformed masses of potential until we can see them on the field for a few seasons. This variable reminds us that risk is not just about downside; its more about uncertainty.

Age: One day, Max Scherzer will age out of his skills profile. As a Mets fan, I hope that doesnt happen until 2025. As a fantasy leaguer, I have my guard up now.

New environment: Will Trevor Story turn into a pumpkin outside of Coors Field? Who knows, but again, its all about uncertainty.

Regression: Cal Quantrill had a 2.89 ERA last year but his xFIP was 4.43, which makes a 2021 repeat risky. Thankfully, the market seems to be recognizing that with his current 16th-round ADP. But Walker Buehler also had a xFIP more than a run higher than his 2.47 ERA and the market is still drafting him in the first round.

You know the subconscious thought process: If I draft Jacob deGrom, I should probably avoid Blake Snell.

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From Juan Soto to Nick Pivetta, a 23-round draft guide to the safest team roto-money can buy - The Athletic