This is SpaceXs new rocket: Starship.
It launched last week.It did explode four minutes in:
But SpaceX will make it work. And when it does, what will matter is that its humongous.
It can carry so much payload to space that it will change the economics of space.
This will change civilization.
But we havent yet grasped how this will change civilization, both in space and on Earth. So lets grasp it.
In the last few years, the number of objects launched to space has skyrocketed.
In space, we mainly send things to Low-Earth Orbit, or LEO, the green area below:
We can send all these objects to LEO thanks to SpaceXs reusable rockets. Each one of them can launch payloads to space dozens of times.
With all these launches, its not just the number of objects we can send to space that is soaring. Also the volume and mass. As a result, the cost to launch a kilogram of payload to LEO has dropped since the 1980s:
In the 1980s, it cost over $75k to carry one kilogram to space in a big rocket. Just carrying one astronauts body cost the astronomical sum of over $5M! SpaceXs Falcon Heavy has brought it down to $1,500/kg, or 50 times cheaper. This is the magic of SpaceXs bigger, reusable rockets.
Now SpaceXs Starship rocket will take the baton and go farther. It is designed to carry over 100 tons of payload to LEO, which is 50% more than the latest Falcon heavy. It will have thousands of launches every year. And Elon Musk believes that within 2-3 years, the cost per kg will drop from Falcon Heavys $1,500 to $100.
To put it into perspective:
People dont realize how big of a deal this is.
Look at the cost of different types of transportation on Earth:
Its no coincidence that the US and Northern Europe are two of the wealthiest regions in the world and also two of the regions with the most connected navigable inland waterways
Why does it matter? Because transportation costs over water are much cheaper than over land. And navigation through inland waterways is even better than sea transportation, because weather is much less of a problem, currents can be controlled, and rivers serve two banks instead of just one for coastal transportation.
You can see the value of rivers in a country like France, where the population density closely follows the river systems. Cheap transportation attracted people and wealth to the rivers, and especially to their confluences.
Why is that? Why did people gather around rivers?
Imagine you sell meat and can make a profit of $10 for each kilogram you sell. But it costs you $1 to transport each kg one kilometer. Each additional kilometer you add, your margin is reduced by $1. You can only transport your product 10 km away. In the example below, that means you can only trade with four cities:
If instead, your cost of transportation is half, what happens? It costs you $0.5 per km. Now youre increasing your margins with each of the cities that you used to trade with. But more importantly, now you can reach markets that are 20 km away.
But when you 2x the distance, you 4x the surface! In this case, you cant just trade with four cities anymore, you can trade with sixteen
This is what rivers do: by dropping the cost of transport, they connect huge numbers of cities, which can trade much more between them, become wealthier, their population can buy even more, and so on and so forth.
All in all, the value of the network to the right is at least an order of magnitude higher than that to the left! The cheaper the transport, the more trade at a lower cost, the more wealth generated, the more that wealth can be reinvested in better canals and bridges and roads, and the areas wealth grows even further.
Weve seen this through history. Rome was built around the Mediterraneans cheap transportation costs, and obsessed about reducing overland transportation costs with their famous roads. Their empire was limited by the reach of their communications.
Similarly, the Egyptians lived around the Nile, the early Vikings around the North Sea, early Japan around its Seto Inland Sea, China started its canals in the 5th Century BC
Transportation costs are so important they created empires.Now Starship is dropping transportation costs to new worlds. What will that allow?
Starship is like a conveyor belt to Low Earth Orbit (LEO). When you drop your transportation costs by 100x in a decade, a new universe of opportunities opens up so fast that human brains cant follow.
Space engineers have spent decades focusing on shaving milligrams of weight off their satellites. The weight was so important that it pervaded every decision: cost structure, volumes to be sent, material choices, power sources, thermal protection, software for guidance, navigation, or control Every aspect of the mission was obsessed about one thing: weight. Every NASA mission had to be a marvel of miniaturization to cram as much science as possible into every available micrometer. The obsession against mass was drilled into engineers brains, generation after generation.
Thats out the window.
All space missions, whether robotic or crewed, historical or planned, have been designed with constraints that are not relevant to Starship.
Starship obliterates the mass constraint and every last vestige of cultural baggage it has gouged into the minds of spacecraft designers. A dollar spent on mass optimization no longer buys a dollar saved on launch cost. It buys nothing. It is time to raise the scope of our ambition and think much bigger.Casey Handmer, Starship is still not understood
In this light, it makes much more sense to have sent a Tesla Roadster to space.
It wasnt simply an outrageous public relations move. It was a message to the rest of the industry: See how much you cared about every microgram? That time is gone. My rockets are so big that I can afford to send a Tesla and I barely notice. Anybody in the industry paying attention should have realized what was going on.
Most didnt. For example, Artemis is an international program to send astronauts to the Moon, with the long-term goal of establishing a lunar base. But Artemis is designed with the old mindset, using the expendable Space Launch System rockets. If instead it used Starship, it could send 100x as much cargo and build a base for 1,000 astronauts in a year or two, instead of sending two or three dinky 10 ton crew habitats over the next decade. So why dont we do that? Because Artemis is still trapped in a pre-Starship paradigm where each kilogram costs a million dollars and we must aggressively descope our ambition.
With a 100x decrease in cost and a 100x increase in transportation volume, space agencies can send 100x more payload to space for the same budget. How can the space economy saturate this new supply?
For example, prior to Starship, heavy machinery to build a Moon base could only come from NASA. After Starship, Caterpillar or Deere can qualify their existing products for space with very minimal changes. We could send crews to build a base in space with John Deere equipment in a few years, instead of waiting for decades while NASA engineers catch up with reality.
History is littered with the wreckage of former industrial titans that underestimated the impact of new technology and overestimated their ability to adapt: Blockbuster, Motorola, Kodak, Nokia, RIM, Xerox, Yahoo, IBM, Atari, Sears, Hitachi, Polaroid, Toshiba, HP, Palm, Sony, PanAm, Sega, Netscape, Compaq, GMCasey Handmer, Starship is still not understood
Everyone saw it coming, but senior management failed to recognize that adaptation would require stepping beyond the accepted bounds of their traditional business practice. If they dont do it, others will for them.
This is what Starlink is.
SpaceX created all this cheap cargo space and realized its ramifications before anybody else. They wondered: How can we use all this cheap cargo that nobody knows what to do with?
They looked at the most obvious business model to take advantage of it: satellite communications. They went for it. SpaceX created the satellite constellation Starlink, which provides fast, reliable Internet service all over the world. In many cases, the economics of beaming information down are superior to laying down cable on Earth. Its already making money.
Starlink is just one example of what you can do with all this new, cheap cargo space. There are many more. The more time passes without companies realizing the opportunity, the more businesses SpaceX will gobble up.
What are some of these opportunities?
Today, we use satellite imaging, but the images you get from space are pretty stale, or not very detailed. We can get so much better. For example, theres a thing called synthetic aperture radar, capable of capturing amazing pictures like this:
Have you ever used Google Maps and wondered: Id love to see this, but in much more detail? Or what if I could see the Earth in real time? Or what if we could see an infrared image of the Earth in real time?
We could launch hundreds of satellites with such mind-blowing visual precision of the Earth that we would dramatically improve the accuracy of our meteorological models;Our agriculture;Where crime is happening;Where poachers are operating in the savannah;Whats happening with climate change;Who is moving military personnel where Wouldnt that be useful?
What if we all had access to real-time visualization of everything happening on Earth? How does that change businesses? How does that change society?
Please share your ideas on the types of businesses that this makes possible in the comments. Im especially interested in the ramifications of real-time, detailed imagery of the world.
Leave a comment
Conversely, I dont think deep space is as viable. Tourism, deep-space mining, or Mars colonization are not businesses. This limits their potential a lot. I will cover this in the premium article this week
This article was inspired by and heavily quotes Casey Handmers blog, especially his post Starship is still not understood. I will be writing more about space in the coming weeks, and Caseys blog has been a huge influence. I will also talk about Caseys new venture in the future. Also thank you Chan Komagan for your ideas while writing this article, and Shoni as always for your edits!
Go here to see the original:
How Starship Will Change Humanity Soon - by Tomas Pueyo - Uncharted Territories
- A Murder At The End Of The World's Retreat Guests Explained: Who ... - Screen Rant - November 18th, 2023 [November 18th, 2023]
- The Moon People: Assimilation and the Jewish Literary Transvestite - Tablet Magazine - November 18th, 2023 [November 18th, 2023]
- Will two generations of Moon walkers shake hands? - OnlySky Media - November 18th, 2023 [November 18th, 2023]
- SpaceX Prepares for Second Starship Launch as it Eyes Moon and ... - OPP.Today - November 18th, 2023 [November 18th, 2023]
- Invincible Season 2 Episode 3 Review - But Why Tho? - November 18th, 2023 [November 18th, 2023]
- TV Recap: "A Murder at the End of the World" - Chapter 1: Homme ... - Laughing Place - November 18th, 2023 [November 18th, 2023]
- Thursday: Hili dialogue Why Evolution Is True - Why Evolution Is True - November 18th, 2023 [November 18th, 2023]
- Space Habitat Market to grow by USD 169.38 million from 2023 to ... - PR Newswire - November 18th, 2023 [November 18th, 2023]
- Cosmic conservation: Why experts argue portions of the solar ... - Salon - September 11th, 2023 [September 11th, 2023]
- We havent even set foot on Mars and we are already setting up a ... - Softonic EN - September 11th, 2023 [September 11th, 2023]
- NASA's MOXIE Experiment Triumphs in Generating Oxygen ... - The Weather Channel - September 11th, 2023 [September 11th, 2023]
- ECOVIEWS: Thermal vents produce bizarre life forms | Features ... - Charleston Post Courier - September 11th, 2023 [September 11th, 2023]
- Elon Musk's 'most powerful rocket ever made' is finally ready for launch - Technext - September 11th, 2023 [September 11th, 2023]
- What's the Bare Minimum Number of People for a Mars Habitat? - Universe Today - September 11th, 2023 [September 11th, 2023]
- India may be moving to change its name to ancient Sanskrit term ... - FOX Bangor/ABC 7 News and Stories - September 11th, 2023 [September 11th, 2023]
- My Nuclear Family - The Good Men Project - September 11th, 2023 [September 11th, 2023]
- The MCU Multiverse Is Continuing A Great Marvel Trend - Screen Rant - April 30th, 2023 [April 30th, 2023]
- China is taking 3D printers to the moon - TechRadar - April 27th, 2023 [April 27th, 2023]
- Mae Martins SAP showcases affirming, optimistic humor - The Wellesley News - April 27th, 2023 [April 27th, 2023]
- Of Moths and Marsupials - bioGraphic - April 27th, 2023 [April 27th, 2023]
- Teachers Rejoice! OpenAI Released Tool to Catch ChatGPT Writing - January 31st, 2023 [January 31st, 2023]
- Are You Smarter Than ChatGPT? OpenAI Tool Aims to Detect AI-Generated ... - January 31st, 2023 [January 31st, 2023]
- What is Artificial Intelligence (AI) ? | IBM - January 31st, 2023 [January 31st, 2023]
- Overview | Earth's Moon NASA Solar System Exploration - January 27th, 2023 [January 27th, 2023]
- Moon Phases | Moon in Motion Moon: NASA Science - January 27th, 2023 [January 27th, 2023]
- All About the Moon | NASA Space Place NASA Science for Kids - January 27th, 2023 [January 27th, 2023]
- January 21, 2023: Closest New Moon Since the Middle Ages - January 27th, 2023 [January 27th, 2023]
- Colonization of Europa - Wikipedia - January 4th, 2023 [January 4th, 2023]
- American Colonization Society | abolitionist organization - January 4th, 2023 [January 4th, 2023]
- Deimos (moon) - Wikipedia - December 28th, 2022 [December 28th, 2022]
- Everything NASA is taking to the moon before colonizing Mars - December 21st, 2022 [December 21st, 2022]
- Chinese Lunar Exploration Program - Wikipedia - December 21st, 2022 [December 21st, 2022]
- Moon - Wikipedia - November 23rd, 2022 [November 23rd, 2022]
- Artemis is our first step toward space colonization - Big Think - November 21st, 2022 [November 21st, 2022]
- Supermoon - Wikipedia - October 15th, 2022 [October 15th, 2022]
- Captain Kirk Went to Space and Saw Absolutely Nothing - TheStranger.com - October 15th, 2022 [October 15th, 2022]
- We'koqma'q First Nation helps keep tradition alive with ribbon skirt bank - CBC.ca - October 15th, 2022 [October 15th, 2022]
- Review: Andor Episode 6 gives a heartbreaking victory to the rebels of Aldhani - Winter is Coming - October 15th, 2022 [October 15th, 2022]
- National Indigenous Peoples Day 2022: Everything to Know - Newsweek - October 15th, 2022 [October 15th, 2022]
- Who's the enemy here? - The Korea JoongAng Daily - October 15th, 2022 [October 15th, 2022]
- Avatar: Where We Were and Where We're at The Minnesota Republic - Kent Kaiser - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- Glitching Time and Time-Based Media The Brooklyn Rail - Brooklyn Rail - October 6th, 2022 [October 6th, 2022]
- New Artwork on the Toronto Sign Pays Tribute to the Rights of Indigenous Language Speakers Worldwide - Storeys - September 29th, 2022 [September 29th, 2022]
- Is it finally time for a permanent base on the moon? - Popular Science - September 22nd, 2022 [September 22nd, 2022]
- Venice Review: In Viaggio is a Fascinating Rorschach Test of the Pope - The Film Stage - September 22nd, 2022 [September 22nd, 2022]
- Bon Apptit's 2022 Heads of the Table Awards - Bon Appetit - September 22nd, 2022 [September 22nd, 2022]
- Coast Salish sweat-lodge keeper welcomes all to share in healing - Broadview Magazine - September 22nd, 2022 [September 22nd, 2022]
- In Guam, even the dead are dying: the US military is building on the graves of our ancestors - The Guardian - September 22nd, 2022 [September 22nd, 2022]
- Living Underground on the Moon: How Lava Tubes Could Aid Lunar Colonization - August 25th, 2022 [August 25th, 2022]
- Colonization of the Solar System - Wikipedia - August 25th, 2022 [August 25th, 2022]
- Under Capitalism, the Colonization of Space Means the ... - Jacobin - August 25th, 2022 [August 25th, 2022]
- A New World of Heavenly Art - The Epoch Times - August 25th, 2022 [August 25th, 2022]
- New Releases Tuesday: The Best Books Out This Week - Book Riot - August 25th, 2022 [August 25th, 2022]
- Diving into student research at the Summer 2022 SEA Fellows Symposium - UMaine News - University of Maine - University of Maine - August 25th, 2022 [August 25th, 2022]
- Skywatch for the week of August 22, 2022 - WQCS - August 23rd, 2022 [August 23rd, 2022]
- Law alum's career heads into orbit with unexpected passion for space law - University of Calgary - August 23rd, 2022 [August 23rd, 2022]
- Heres where we might really be able to set up a colony on the Moon - BGR - August 10th, 2022 [August 10th, 2022]
- Elon Musk's Flawed Vision and the Dangers of Trusting Billionaires - TIME - August 10th, 2022 [August 10th, 2022]
- Travel Bug: You don't have to be a diver to enjoy Palau - Pacific Daily News - August 10th, 2022 [August 10th, 2022]
- Avatar Was James Cameron's Tribute To A Legend Of VFX Filmmaking - /Film - July 31st, 2022 [July 31st, 2022]
- Sonic Youth : Sister, EVOL, Bad Moon Rising - The trilogy | Treble - Treble - July 31st, 2022 [July 31st, 2022]
- NASA's Lunar Orbiter spots comfortably warm 'pits' all over the Moon - The Register - July 27th, 2022 [July 27th, 2022]
- Will 3D Printing Be Used for the First Commercial Mission to Mars? - 3Dnatives - July 27th, 2022 [July 27th, 2022]
- Abe Leaves Behind Complex Legacy in Japan's Neighborhood - The Diplomat - July 27th, 2022 [July 27th, 2022]
- Moon Off-Roading In The Wild GM Electric Car That Makes Hummer EV Look Normal - SlashGear - June 30th, 2022 [June 30th, 2022]
- A conversation with a poet whose home burned to the ground - Yale Climate Connections - June 30th, 2022 [June 30th, 2022]
- Before Langley Air Force Base: The muddy history of Shellbanks, Sherwood and other plantations of Elizabeth City County - Daily Press - June 30th, 2022 [June 30th, 2022]
- colonization of Australia | Britannica - June 24th, 2022 [June 24th, 2022]
- NASA Reveals Three Design Concepts For Nuclear Power On The Moon - SlashGear - June 24th, 2022 [June 24th, 2022]
- Interview: Small modular reactors get a reality check about their waste - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists - June 22nd, 2022 [June 22nd, 2022]
- Of Wazhazhe Land and Language: The Ongoing Project of Ancestral Work - Literary Hub - June 22nd, 2022 [June 22nd, 2022]
- The Oddest of Organs: A Brief History of the Tongue - Literary Hub - June 22nd, 2022 [June 22nd, 2022]
- 'For All Mankind' Season 3: Episode 2 - Recap And Ending, Explained - Who Was Chosen To Head The Mars Mission? | DMT - DMT - June 20th, 2022 [June 20th, 2022]
- New moon - Wikipedia - June 11th, 2022 [June 11th, 2022]
- Why Neil deGrasse Tyson Is Skeptical About Mars Colonization - June 3rd, 2022 [June 3rd, 2022]
- Bitcoin And The Great Filter - Bitcoin Magazine - June 3rd, 2022 [June 3rd, 2022]
- Art Attack: Where to Find Art on First Friday Weekend in Denver - Westword - June 3rd, 2022 [June 3rd, 2022]
- Scramble Campbell on His Two Decades as Red Rocks' Artist-in-Residence - Westword - June 3rd, 2022 [June 3rd, 2022]
- Pro and Con: Space Colonization | Britannica - May 31st, 2022 [May 31st, 2022]
- How Many Humans Could the Moon Support? | Live Science - May 31st, 2022 [May 31st, 2022]