December 9, 2021
Tim Farrar of TMF Associates says the recent breathless valuations for SpaceX (ranging from between $80 billion to $100 billion) are inconsistent. He says the quoted company valuations have near-tripled over the past year, and with SpaceXs share price albeit privately held rising from about $200 per share to $560 over the same period, hence the $100 billion overall valuation.
Farrar says: There is a distinct inconsistency between what SpaceX has been telling the FCC about Elon Musks stake in the company and the amount of dilution implied by sales of new shares at these prices. Specifically, SpaceX told the FCC in November 2016 that Musk owned 54 per cent of the company, which declined to 50.5 per cent in November 2018, 47.4 per cent in April 2020 and finally 43.61 per cent in August 2021.
Over this period, SpaceX reported selling a total of $5.31 billion in equity, based on its Form D submissions to the SEC. Using the public reports on the share price for the transactions through April 2021 (before the
equity raise of $345 million), I calculate that this represents approximately 22.4 million shares, which increased the share count from a little over 154 million shares to just under 177 million shares, he adds.However, if the valuations and share prices quoted to financial reporters are accurate, Musks stated ownership percentage over the same period would have equated to 83.4 million shares in November 2016, 80.3 million shares in November 2018, 78.9 million shares in April 2020 and 77.2 million shares in August 2021. Did Musk really dispose of his SpaceX shares on a regular basis over this period? That seems unlikely, especially given that he had minimal taxable income in 2017 and 2018, suggests Farrar.
Farrar analyses the share issues to take into account potential share options to staffers and suggests there is a missing 14 million shares over and above the numbers reported to the authorities. This, says Farrar, could mean that recent buyers of SpaceX stock might actually be over-paying for diluted values and suggest the unaccounted for number would be equal to some 7 per cent.
In addition, says Farrar, the most recent (October 2021) reported valuation of $100.3 billion at a $560 share price appears to reflect an increase of around 2.1 million shares since spring 2021. How much of that amount (worth $1.2 billion at this valuation) represents the shares used to acquire Swarm in August 2021? Although part of this increase might represent conversion of some of the options noted above (since SpaceX was selling 1.35 million existing shares), it seems very plausible that a significant proportion of these shares went to Swarms owners, which would represent a very high valuation (many hundreds of millions of dollars) for a company that had barely begun to offer commercial services.
Swarm Technologies is the company behind a fleet of sandwich-sized Internet of Things (IoT) satellites that has been graded as one of the 10 Hottest Satellite Companies in 2021. SpaceX acquired Swarm according to an FCC filing in August 2021. Swarm is now a direct wholly-owned subsidiary of SpaceX.
See original here:
Analyst: The mystery of SpaceX's value | - Advanced Television
- SpaceXs Starship destroyed on return to Earth at end of third test flight - The Guardian - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- How to watch SpaceX's 3rd Starship launch test live online today - Space.com - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- SpaceX achieves historic milestone in launch of world's largest rocket into space but Starship lost on reentry - Fox Weather - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- What time is SpaceX's 3rd Starship launch test on today? - Space.com - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- SpaceX launch: Starship reaches new heights in test for NASA missions - USA TODAY - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- SpaceX's incredibly powerful Starship lost in the Indian Ocean after reaching orbit for 1st time - Livescience.com - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- SpaceX Starship Rocket Lost On Re-EntryHeres What To Know - Forbes - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- Jeff Bezoss Blue Origin Could Race SpaceX to the Moon - The New York Times - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- SpaceXs Starship gets FAA approval for third test flight - The Washington Post - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- SpaceX launches Starship on the third flight test of the program Spaceflight Now - Spaceflight Now - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- SpaceX's 3rd Starship launch makes it to space without exploding, but is lost on reentry - Phys.org - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- SpaceX cleared to attempt third Starship launch Thursday after getting FAA license - CNBC - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- SpaceX stacks Starship ahead of 3rd test flight (photos) - Space.com - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- SpaceX rocket launch captured on SNYs broadcast of Mets-Nationals Spring Training game - Awful Announcing - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- Louisiana man captures video of SpaceX crew returning to earth - WDSU New Orleans - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- SpaceX Starship successfully blasts off on third test flight - Los Angeles Times - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- Spacex confirms loss of starship at end of third test flight - Reuters - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- SpaceX launching third Starship test flight in Texas: What to know - Austin American-Statesman - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- SpaceX Starship achieves new milestones its third test flight, ITF-3 - Florida Today - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- SpaceX gets E-band radio waves to boost Starlink broadband - SpaceNews - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- SpaceX's Crew-7 capsule returns 4 astronauts to Earth with predawn splashdown (video) - Space.com - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- 'Wildly Successful Test': SpaceX's Starship reaches orbit, biggest rocket ever made - Fox Business - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- SpaceX Dragon splashes down during reentry, Crew-7 returns to Earth - USA TODAY - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- SpaceX Starship launch 3: Time, how to watch live, what to expect - Business Insider - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- SpaceX's Starship makes it into space but is lost during reentry - The Washington Post - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- Starship launch: Third flight reaches space but is lost on re-entry - New Scientist - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- SpaceX reveals new details on Starships third test flight - TESLARATI - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- Starship lifts off on third test flight - SpaceNews - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- SpaceX successfully launches Starship but loses spacecraft while in orbit - News 13 Orlando - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- SpaceX Starship launch livestream: Watch the third launch live - Mashable - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- UPDATE 3: SpaceX launches NASA's PACE satellite with new capabilities to study climate, ocean and atmosphere ... - SatNews - February 9th, 2024 [February 9th, 2024]
- DID YOU HEAR IT? Sonic booms reported in Central Florida during return of Ax-3 crew - WKMG News 6 & ClickOrlando - February 9th, 2024 [February 9th, 2024]
- Ax-3 Astronauts Undock in Dragon from Station for Earth Return - NASA Blogs - February 9th, 2024 [February 9th, 2024]
- SpaceX targeting Feb. 14 for launch of Intuitive Machines IM-1 private moon mission - Space.com - February 9th, 2024 [February 9th, 2024]
- Mongolia discusses first national satellite with SpaceX - Developing Telecoms - February 9th, 2024 [February 9th, 2024]
- NASA, SpaceX, PACE in Florida: Where to watch Earth-science launch - Florida Today - February 9th, 2024 [February 9th, 2024]
- SpaceX rolls out Falcon 9 rocket to launch NASA's ocean-studying PACE satellite on Feb. 8 (photos) - Space.com - February 9th, 2024 [February 9th, 2024]
- Musk at center of sexual harassment fight with ex-SpaceX employees - The Seattle Times - February 9th, 2024 [February 9th, 2024]
- SpaceX to launch NASA's PACE ocean-monitoring satellite this week - Space.com - February 9th, 2024 [February 9th, 2024]
- SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket carrying NASA's new PACE mission: The best pictures from the launch - Wonderwall - February 9th, 2024 [February 9th, 2024]
- Ax-3 astronauts leave International Space Station in SpaceX Dragon, eye Friday splashdown - Florida Today - February 9th, 2024 [February 9th, 2024]
- SpaceX Dragon carrying Axiom-3 astronauts returns to Earth with splashdown near Daytona Beach| Watch - Hindustan Times - February 9th, 2024 [February 9th, 2024]
- Weather Delays Launch of NASAs PACE Mission PACE Mission - NASA Blogs - February 9th, 2024 [February 9th, 2024]
- Sonic boom could hit Florida with SpaceX launch of NASA Earth science probe - Tampa Bay Times - February 9th, 2024 [February 9th, 2024]
- SpaceX Launches Ambitious PACE Mission to Monitor Global Ocean, Atmospheric Health - AmericaSpace - February 9th, 2024 [February 9th, 2024]
- UPDATE 3: Another bump in time as SpaceX delays launch of 22 Starlink smallsats SatNews - SatNews - February 9th, 2024 [February 9th, 2024]
- SpaceX applies for sea-based satellite earth stations - DatacenterDynamics - February 9th, 2024 [February 9th, 2024]
- Launch Roundup: SpaceX to launch lunar lander on Falcon 9's 300th mission; JAXA looks to reach orbit with H3 rocket ... - NASASpaceflight.com - February 9th, 2024 [February 9th, 2024]
- UPDATE 2: PACE launch delay again as weather creates stand down SatNews - SatNews - February 9th, 2024 [February 9th, 2024]
- Weather 40% Favorable for Tuesday PACE Mission Launch PACE Mission - NASA Blogs - February 9th, 2024 [February 9th, 2024]
- NASA's PACE mission underway with overnight launch of SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket - WFTV Orlando - February 9th, 2024 [February 9th, 2024]
- SpaceX launches NASA's PACE satellite to study Earth's oceans, air and climate - Yahoo News UK - February 9th, 2024 [February 9th, 2024]
- SpaceX shows of 4 giant Starship Super Heavy boosters (photos) - Space.com - February 9th, 2024 [February 9th, 2024]
- Weather Clears for PACE Launch PACE Mission - NASA Blogs - February 9th, 2024 [February 9th, 2024]
- SpaceX to launch Falcon 9 rocket Thursday night from Vandenberg SFB - Yahoo News - February 9th, 2024 [February 9th, 2024]
- WATCH AGAIN: NASA'S PACE spacecraft launches on Falcon 9 rocket from the Cape - WKMG News 6 & ClickOrlando - February 9th, 2024 [February 9th, 2024]
- Starlink Group 7-13 | Falcon 9 Block 5 - Everyday Astronaut - February 9th, 2024 [February 9th, 2024]
- Watch private Ax-3 astronauts return to Earth in SpaceX capsule on Feb. 9 (video) - Yahoo! Voices - February 9th, 2024 [February 9th, 2024]
- NASA's PACE mission underway with overnight launch of SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket - Yahoo News - February 9th, 2024 [February 9th, 2024]
- Ax-3 Astronauts Undock From Space Station in SpaceX Dragon for Earth Return - SciTechDaily - February 9th, 2024 [February 9th, 2024]
- SpaceX, NASA targeting Feb. 22 for launch of Crew-8 astronaut mission - Space.com - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- SpaceX gearing up to launch Intuitive Machines private moon lander in February - Space.com - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- NASA names astronauts for SpaceX's Crew-9 mission to the ISS - Space.com - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Starlab commercial space station to launch on Starship - SpaceNews - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- SpaceX launches private Cygnus cargo spacecraft to the ISS (video) - Space.com - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- NASA and Partners Now Target Tuesday for Ax-3 Mission Departure - NASA Blogs - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Cygnus Cargo Ship Launching on SpaceX Rocket Live on NASA TV - NASA Blogs - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- SpaceX: DOD Has Requested Taking Over Starship For Individual Missions - Aviation Week - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Musk took drugs with Tesla and SpaceX execs WSJ - Global Village space - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Watch SpaceX launch of NASA International Space Station cargo mission live on Tuesday - USA TODAY - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- SpaceX wants to give some land to Texas Parks and Wildlife but ownership is unclear - Texas Public Radio - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- SpaceXs Starship Rocket to Launch the Starlab Commercial Space Station - Via Satellite - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Cygnus Lifts Off Atop SpaceX Rocket to Deliver Station Cargo - NASA Blogs - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Space Force Guardian to reach orbit for 1st time on SpaceX's Crew-9 astronaut launch - Space.com - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Coverage of the Hatch Closing for the SpaceX/Axiom-3 Crew - NASA (.gov) - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- US military eyes SpaceX Starship for 'sensitive and potentially dangerous missions': report - Space.com - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- SpaceX, NASA ready for splashdown of Ax-3 crew - WKMG News 6 & ClickOrlando - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Starlabwith half the volume of the ISSwill fit inside Starship's payload bay - Ars Technica - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- NASA, SpaceX To Launch PACE Earth Science Satellite Early Tuesday - Talk of Titusville - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]
- Teams Hold Flight Readiness Review for NASA's PACE Mission PACE Mission - NASA Blogs - February 5th, 2024 [February 5th, 2024]