With the World Bank identifying Bangladesh as one of only three big economies, along with Pakistan and Mexico, with increased remittance inflow in 2020, and with remittances making up a substantial share of the country's income for long, it is not surprising that a recent study found an unexpected resilience in the rural economy through remittance inflow during the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. The study, supported by the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI), shows that according to Bangladesh Bank's monthly remittance data, after reaching a low in March to May 2020, inward remittances quickly recovered in June and peaked in July last year, when remittances reached a record USD 2.6 billion.
Collaborating with Socioconsult Ltd, a well-known survey company in Dhaka, the study was conducted throughout 2020 to develop a more panoramic view of what is happening in rural areas and offer answers to the quick recovery of the Bangladesh economy, which the Asian Development Bank, other multilateral development partners, and the government are working towards. The study is based on a three-round survey (June and September 2020, and January 2021) on the widely used Mahabub Hossain Panel Data (MHPD) samples of more than 2,200 householdscreating nationally representative rural samples that followed multistage random sampling to capture short- to medium-term impacts of the first wave of the pandemic.
The MHPD samples are a unique dataset created and maintained by the late Mahabub Hossain (1945-2016), a respected agricultural economist, and former leader of Brac, IRRI's social science division, Bangladesh Institute for Development Studies (BIDS), and the Asian Society of Agricultural Economists (ASAE). The MHPD has been tracking rural households for around three decades in five different rounds (1988, 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2014). It has been used significantly in academic research and in formulating numerous policies of a number of government, nongovernmental, and international development organisations.
Repeating the surveys for the same samples every three to four months throughout 2020 allowed us to observe changes in the rural economy, offering evidence of the quick recovery of consumption and economic conditions of rural households and associated factors. The first-round survey targeted all 2,846 respondents of the survey in 2014 and used detailed contacts provided by those households at that time. In the next rounds, the survey only targeted those who gave full complete answers in the previous round.
The first round of surveys, conducted in June 2020, documented several adverse impacts of the containment measures, such as delayed Boro harvest, difficulty in selling farm produce, labour and material input disruptions and cost increases, and reduced remittance receipts and non-farm business sales. Rural households had to reduce food consumption and required food support from the government and cash support from the private sector. However, when we combine all three rounds of data, our preliminary results revealed a more positive picture in rural areas, with a quick recovery of farm and non-farm businesses, and recovered remittance income and household consumption. The number of farmers reporting labour disruption for different crops and non-crop farm products dropped from 20-53.6 percent to 9-24 percent; the proportion of non-farm/cottage businesses with more than 75 percent decline in sales dropped by 10 percent. We observed both the quantity and quality of food consumption improving substantially over the rest of 2020.
In response to a question asked during the third survey round (in January 2021) on whether households' economic condition improved, was stable or worsened due to the pandemic, around 44 percent reported that their economic condition worsened compared to the pre-Covid-19 situation. However, when asked about their relative socio-economic position (rich, higher middle income, lower middle income, poor and ultra-poor) compared to other households in the village currently (January 2021) and before the pandemic (February 2020), we did not find significantly different opinions, especially among poor and ultra-poor households.
We also found a considerable share of rural households receiving remittance from an absentee member who works overseas or within Bangladesh. While the share of overseas remittance recipients quickly recovered from around six percent during MarchMay 2020 to over 11 percent in SeptemberDecember, the average amount of overseas remittance increased from around Tk 2,000 to more than Tk 7,500. The same trend was observed in domestic remittance as well, with the domestic economy undergoing a quick recovery last year. Around 30 percent of households reported getting money or food support from the government, NGOs, and friends or neighboursmostly received in the first survey round period after lockdown measures were imposed across the country.
After deeper analyses from collected data, two major findings can be summarised. First, there was a more optimistic picture of food consumption equity in contrast with the widening food gap warned by scholars and international organisationssuch evidence is more profound among remittance recipient households compared to non-recipient counterparts. There were also rapid changes in spending of different quantile groups of real food distribution. In MarchMay 2020, real food consumption spending of the top consumers was more than four times higher than those at the bottom, but the bottom group quickly caught up and the gap dropped to less than two times higher in SeptemberDecember 2020. Second, in contrast with several studies that predicted that females would suffer more during the pandemic, we found that female-headed households actually had higher real food consumption expenses and better perceptive changes in economic conditions.
Together with descriptive evidence, regression analyses show robust evidence of a significantly positive relationship between food consumption expenses, consumption experiences and changes of economic condition, and both remittance recipient dummy and amount of remittance (a dummy variable is a numerical variable used in regression analysis to represent subgroups of the sample, which is often used to distinguish different treatment groups). However, when we take support (received from different sources, including government safety nets) dummy and amount of support, we did not find any significant positive association between them with food consumption expenses, consumption experiences and changes of economic condition. Aligning with previous studies, it was also found that poorer and larger households and those with less educated household heads are more vulnerable. Geographical location is also significantly associated with household consumption and economic conditionthose located further from Dhaka, the economic centre, or in regions where lockdown measures were imposed last year, were more vulnerable.
Although our study does not claim a causal relationship between remittance inflow and rural recovery, it gives a more positive impression about the multiplier effect of remittance inflow within the rural economy rather than the multiplier effect of new spending, especially government spending such as safety nets. Thus, our results help reinforce the claim made by the Asian Development Bank and other development partners on the crucial role of remittance in domestic demand and consumption, amid a pandemic that fuelled the collapse of other foreign currency sources, foreign direct investment and exports.
Dr Mohammad Abdul Malek is an Associate Professor at the University of Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan. Dr Hoa T. Truong is a Research Associate at the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI), Tokyo, Japan. Dr Tetsushi Sonobe is Dean of ADBI, Tokyo, Japan. The views expressed in this paper are the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the organisations they are affiliated with.
View original post here:
Remittances have helped villages bounce back - The Daily Star
- In defence of the state pension triple lock - UK in a Changing Europe - November 20th, 2023 [November 20th, 2023]
- Driving an entrepreneurship culture | Print Edition - The Sunday ... - The Sunday Times Sri Lanka - November 20th, 2023 [November 20th, 2023]
- NTSA embarks on Road safety sensitisation drives as heavy rains ... - Capital FM Kenya - November 20th, 2023 [November 20th, 2023]
- How We Dealt with Environmental Events in the Past can Help Us ... - One Green Planet - November 13th, 2023 [November 13th, 2023]
- Djibouti is sinking deeper into socio-economic distress. Can the ... - Nation - November 13th, 2023 [November 13th, 2023]
- Thailands tectonic political shift - East Asia Forum - November 13th, 2023 [November 13th, 2023]
- Our climate and nature response: the imperative and opportunity - New Zealand Herald - November 13th, 2023 [November 13th, 2023]
- Police in Marsabit launch manhunt killers of security officer - Nation - November 13th, 2023 [November 13th, 2023]
- Odds stacked against Team CR's attempts to emulate champs - IOL - November 13th, 2023 [November 13th, 2023]
- Total War: Warhammer makes the likes of Total War: Pharaoh feel ... - TechRadar - November 13th, 2023 [November 13th, 2023]
- Quo Vadis Iran? The future of the Islamic Republic after the protests ... - Real Instituto Elcano - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- NWest economic decline leads job shedding crisis in SA Leon ... - Politicsweb - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- A pawn in the ANCs betrayal of SAs developmental agenda - DFA - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- Alarmist headlines about evictions should be ignored in favour of ... - Property Industry Eye - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- The role of women's activism in the fight for Ukraine's freedom - RTE.ie - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- Role of ecological governance in resilience building - Newsday Zimbabwe - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- I'll Explore New Wealth Creation Methods In Kogi Melaye - Leadership News - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- Gift of the Givers conference and Africa Day - Daily Maverick - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- REDcycle's collapse is more proof that plastic recycling is a broken ... - December 30th, 2022 [December 30th, 2022]
- The COVID-19 pandemic and health inequalities - October 30th, 2022 [October 30th, 2022]
- Column: The hope and warning of Iran's protests - Meadville Tribune - October 15th, 2022 [October 15th, 2022]
- Collapse of the Atlantic northwest cod fishery - Wikipedia - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- Economists debunk the banking system and win the Nobel Prize - Cointelegraph - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- Elizabeth Shackelford: The hope and warning of Iran's protests - Rochester Post Bulletin - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- The Taliban's Triumph Has Been Afghanistan's Tragedy - The National Interest Online - September 2nd, 2022 [September 2nd, 2022]
- GDP is (almost) everything, and that's the problem - Resilience - September 2nd, 2022 [September 2nd, 2022]
- Victoria 3 Launches On October 25th, Bringing The Victorian Era To Life In Paradox's Grand Strategy Sim - MMORPG.com - September 2nd, 2022 [September 2nd, 2022]
- Protests, 'biznez' and a failed coup: journalist Monica Attard on covering the empire Gorbachev allowed to collapse - The Conversation - September 2nd, 2022 [September 2nd, 2022]
- The life and death of Italian centrism - Social Europe - September 2nd, 2022 [September 2nd, 2022]
- Giving a dam in the Mekong basin - Policy Forum - September 2nd, 2022 [September 2nd, 2022]
- Pakistan's history of disasters and the lessons we fail to learn - DAWN.com - September 2nd, 2022 [September 2nd, 2022]
- Elections shed light on rise of racism, discrimination in Sweden | Daily Sabah - Daily Sabah - September 2nd, 2022 [September 2nd, 2022]
- Moses parts the Red Devil sea - Iola Register - September 2nd, 2022 [September 2nd, 2022]
- Adapt or reap the whirlwind of the rising seas: Protect Battery Park City from the encroaching Hudson River - New York Daily News - August 29th, 2022 [August 29th, 2022]
- Why Lebanese citizens are joining the migrant tide out of the Middle East - Arab News - August 29th, 2022 [August 29th, 2022]
- Iranians Call for Prosecution of Raisi, Instead of Welcoming Him at UN - Iran Focus - August 29th, 2022 [August 29th, 2022]
- CISLAC to Governors: Sacrifice your jumbo pays to salvage imminent economic collapse - The Eagle Online - August 15th, 2022 [August 15th, 2022]
- Are Humans an Invasive Species? - EARTH.ORG - August 15th, 2022 [August 15th, 2022]
- Jose Rodriguez came to America looking for a brighter future. He ended up a casualty in the political battle over immigration between Texas and New... - August 15th, 2022 [August 15th, 2022]
- Small Island Developing States: Looking Past the COVID-19 Pandemic - Harvard International Review - July 27th, 2022 [July 27th, 2022]
- Growing India-Vietnam economic relations - Times of India - July 27th, 2022 [July 27th, 2022]
- Lebanon Ranked As The Angriest Country In The World - The961 - June 29th, 2022 [June 29th, 2022]
- Let's be honest with our economics - NewsDay - June 29th, 2022 [June 29th, 2022]
- Socio-economic meltdown leaves Lebanese hanging on by a thread | | UN ... - June 24th, 2022 [June 24th, 2022]
- UN and Australia give dignity kits to women and girls in Sri Lanka ... - June 24th, 2022 [June 24th, 2022]
- Parliamentary Elections and the Future of the Armenian Community in Lebanon - Armenian Weekly - June 24th, 2022 [June 24th, 2022]
- A Glimpse of the Chin State and Beyond: One Year after the Military Coup in Myanmar - PRESSENZA International News Agency - June 24th, 2022 [June 24th, 2022]
- Hobbled Economic Performance during Modi's Eight Years: Solution has been the Problem - HW News English - June 18th, 2022 [June 18th, 2022]
- Over 70 Crypto Currencies Have Lost 90% Of Their Value Since Their Peak, Bitcoin Rises - Outlook India - June 18th, 2022 [June 18th, 2022]
- Chinas Xi Jinping Could Knowingly Start a War Without Victory - RealClearDefense - June 18th, 2022 [June 18th, 2022]
- Muse: There's gonna be a big shift. We're dealing with a disruptive transition - NME - June 15th, 2022 [June 15th, 2022]
- Cryptocurrency is a symptom of the death of the American dream - The New Statesman - June 15th, 2022 [June 15th, 2022]
- A conflict of professional ethics and ambition in NAATCO's Off-Broadway debut of 'Queen' at ART/New York - DC Theater Arts - DC Metro Theater Arts - June 15th, 2022 [June 15th, 2022]
- Nigeria-2023: Money politics and theft of democracy - Blueprint Newspapers Limited - June 15th, 2022 [June 15th, 2022]
- 25.12: The Collapse of the Soviet Union: A Timeline of Key Events - June 5th, 2022 [June 5th, 2022]
- Scale, context, and heterogeneity: the complexity of the social space | Scientific Reports - Nature.com - June 3rd, 2022 [June 3rd, 2022]
- Last one to leave Ireland, please switch off the lights - The Irish Times - June 3rd, 2022 [June 3rd, 2022]
- Governments on Road to Collapse as Global Supply Chain Crisis ... - May 27th, 2022 [May 27th, 2022]
- Dissolution of Russia - Wikipedia - May 27th, 2022 [May 27th, 2022]
- Lecture at Institute of Human Rights, Guangzhou University: Human rights in the world: the role of multilateralism - OHCHR - May 27th, 2022 [May 27th, 2022]
- 13 books and reports on science, impacts, solutions, and actors - Yale Climate Connections - May 27th, 2022 [May 27th, 2022]
- What Europe still needs to do to save its bees - EUobserver - May 27th, 2022 [May 27th, 2022]
- Waving the Lion Flag - Groundviews - May 25th, 2022 [May 25th, 2022]
- Special briefing: Lebanese elections reshape the political scene - Middle East Institute - May 25th, 2022 [May 25th, 2022]
- Oil hazards aren't the main worry of Nigeria's coastal residents: toilets are - The Conversation - May 25th, 2022 [May 25th, 2022]
- MAREE TODD: Sharp focus on cost-of-living crisis in Caithness - JohnOGroat Journal - May 25th, 2022 [May 25th, 2022]
- Emefiele at CBN: Preserving Today, Protecting the future - THISDAY Newspapers - May 3rd, 2022 [May 3rd, 2022]
- Five things to know to start your Monday - Businessday - May 3rd, 2022 [May 3rd, 2022]
- 2023: Workers and political participation - Blueprint Newspapers Limited - May 3rd, 2022 [May 3rd, 2022]
- How Africa can respond to the seismic changes in the world: lessons from history - The Conversation Indonesia - May 1st, 2022 [May 1st, 2022]
- Workers Day: Onus on staff to upskill themselves - The Citizen - May 1st, 2022 [May 1st, 2022]
- Green capitalism is not the solution to South Africas energy crisis - News24 - May 1st, 2022 [May 1st, 2022]
- Rwanda most effective low-income country - report | The New Times - The New Times - May 1st, 2022 [May 1st, 2022]
- The 'Panic Masters': is postgraduate study the solution to your career crisis? - Epigram - May 1st, 2022 [May 1st, 2022]
- Homophobia and transphobia have more in common than you think - Dazed - May 1st, 2022 [May 1st, 2022]
- Putin has launched the first economic world war, and the EU and the West are his targets - MarketWatch - April 20th, 2022 [April 20th, 2022]
- New Phase in Dalit Politics: Crisis or Regeneration? - Outlook India - April 20th, 2022 [April 20th, 2022]
- Crikey Worm: Following the leaders? - Crikey - April 20th, 2022 [April 20th, 2022]
- Security Implications of ASUU Strikes, by Hassan Gimba - The Source - April 20th, 2022 [April 20th, 2022]
- The socio-economic consequences of COVID-19 in the Middle ... - April 13th, 2022 [April 13th, 2022]