As momentous as Russias invasion of Ukraine is, the most strategically important event in recent weeks was the global economic war between Russia and the U.S. and its allies. Russia, however, has been preparing to confront the West and challenge the Western socio-economic model for a long time.
Russias strategic interests in Ukraine are well-known. The geography and history of Russia compel its leaders to create and preserve a buffer between Moscow and the major powers in Western Europe, and to ensure access to the Black Sea. Ukraine is crucial to both goals. But beyond Ukraine, the Kremlin perceives the eastward expansion of Western influence, including into Russia, to be a modern invasion by stealth that threatens the Russian regime.
It is not Western organizations such as NATO and the European Union that challenge the Kremlin, but the socio-economic model that enabled the West to win the Cold War and that enticed Eastern Europeans to want to join the West. When he became president of Russia in 2000, in the wake of the Soviet Unions collapse and the economic crisis of the 1990s, Vladimir Putin inherited a broken country. Many Russians contemplated joining the European Union, hoping that alignment with the West would bring a better life.
The priority for the Russian establishment was to stabilize and rebuild the country. Putin just wanted to survive politically. Following the example of past successful Russian leaders, he centralized power. Knowing he needed stability and growth to slow the rate of emigration and address Russias poor demographics, Putin sought to make Europe economically dependent on Moscow. Looking back at history and the current power balance, he identified Germany as the lynchpin of his strategy of dependence.
Russian ties to Germany were key to establishing ties to the European Union more broadly, but this was only the beginning of Russias strategy in Europe.
Russian ties to Germany were key to establishing ties to the European Union more broadly, but this was only the beginning of Russias strategy in Europe. Russia opened up its economy to Western investment, established links throughout the Continent and tried to understand the inner workings of EU bureaucracy. It established close business ties with Italy, France and later Hungary, and built a political network that would help expand its influence in Europe. For Moscow, learning about European vulnerabilities was just as important as building up its economy and growing Russia into a stable economic power.
The Kremlin also campaigned to join the World Trade Organization to establish deeper relationships with the worlds biggest economic players. In the process, it benefited from foreign investments in Russia and learned how the global economy works, building partnerships with not just Western economies but also other economic powers. The only problem was that China, its major ally against the West, was not seeing the accelerated growth it hoped for and was still very much dependent on the U.S. market, giving Beijing limited ability to counter U.S. interests in the world and forcing Russia to keep its focus on Europe.
Average Russians saw improvements in their standard of living under Putin. In major Russian cities, life was similar to that in the West. However, when it became a major player in the energy market, Russia also increased its exposure to global economic cycles. The European economic crisis of the 2010s sent shivers through Moscow. Russias economy remained fragile overall, and the gap between urban and rural areas remained dangerously high, potentially threatening Putins control.
At the same time, the West offered an attractive model to rival Russias. It wasnt so much the growing Western influence in Russias buffer zone that bothered the Kremlin, but the fact that ordinary Russians might look at Eastern Europe and see a better model for political organization and economic growth.
Then the pandemic hit. The Russian president apparently feared that the economic insecurity wrought by COVID-19 could threaten his countrys economic security and stability. As the worst socio-economic effects of the pandemic faded, action against the West became urgent. From the Kremlins point of view, this was a unique moment. The U.S. has been trying to reduce its presence in Europe and instead focus on the Indo-Pacific and domestic problems. In other words, from the Kremlins point of view, the trans-Atlantic alliance and the European Union appear weak. Most important, Russias leaders believe they have gained sufficient knowledge of the way the West works and can fight it effectively.
Russia has been preparing to confront the West since at least the early 2000s. Besides stockpiling foreign reserves, Moscow constructed trade blocs and deepened relations with projects like the Eurasian Economic Union. In Europe, it enticed Germany to become dependent on Russian natural gas, which as is clear today made it extremely difficult for Europe to cut off Russian energy imports. Shifting from gas would require Europe to build new infrastructure a costly, time-consuming process.
The close German-Russian partnership also benefited the Kremlins Europe strategy in other ways. To give a practical example, the EU had plans to make the Danube River fully navigable through the establishment of additional canals, increasing Central Europes connection with the Black Sea. This would have given Europe more leverage against Russia at the moment, when the war in Ukraine has forced the rerouting of commercial flows from the Black Sea to much more expensive land routes. Instead, positive relations with Moscow made the project seem unnecessary, and it faded away.
It is no coincidence that after 2012, the first full year that Nord Stream 1 was operational, Europe became much more reluctant to adopt policies that could be seen as anti-Russian.
It is no coincidence that after 2012, the first full year that Nord Stream 1 was operational, Europe became much more reluctant to adopt policies that could be seen as anti-Russian. There was simply no interest in Germany to carry them out. It is also no coincidence that relations between the U.S. and Germany have cooled over that time. The U.S. needed Germany to lead Europe, or at least maintain neutrality, to prevent Russia from expanding its influence in Europe as the U.S. drew back. The fact that Russia joined the World Trade Organization in 2012 gave it even more leverage in the world economy.
It is also worth noting that the Kremlin used personal relationships to shore up its influence. Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder was tapped to lead Nord Stream 1. Nord Stream AG also hired former Finnish Prime Minister Paavo Lipponen as a consultant to speed up the permit process in Finland. Former Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi served on the board of Delimobil, a Russian car-sharing service. Former Finnish Prime Minister Esko Aho was on the board of Russias largest bank, Sberbank. Former Austrian Chancellor Christian Kern resigned from the board of Russias state-owned railway company in the early days of the war in Ukraine, while another ex-chancellor, Wolfgang Schussel, remained on the board of Russias Lukoil.
This is just a short list of top politicians, all of whom had at least some influence over their countrys foreign policy discussions. They have certainly been useful to Russian economic growth and the advance of Russias economic strategy in Europe.
Working closely with Europeans for the past two decades has enabled Russia to learn what is important for the stability of their countries. It has also helped the Kremlin better understand their political agendas and support causes that work to its advantage. For example, Russia enthusiastically supported many green policies, like Germanys decision to give up nuclear power which translated into greater reliance on Russian gas. And Russia has openly supported populist parties throughout Europe and effectively used information warfare, all in an attempt to destabilize and ultimately divide Europe.
Globally, Russia has maintained close relations with traditional enemies and competitors of the West. Joining the WTO gave it a stronger position on the global stage, which is used to advance the influence and interests of emerging global players, including the BRICS countries, which also include Brazil, India, China and South Africa. Though the results were modest, Russia promoted the group as an alternative to the West and continued to focus on building ties to China and India, establishing links that it hoped would withstand in a potential confrontation with the West, which were seeing play out today.
To counter the current sanctions, it has looked to China for help. The Eurasian Economic Union gives it proxies for continuing to do business with the world. At the same time, Russias presence in the Middle East and parts of Africa helps it keep the price of oil high high enough that it can keep paying its bills. Influence in the Middle East and the Sahel, two highly unstable but resource-rich areas, also gives Russia more leverage over the world economy.
Russian strategy certainly has its weaknesses, but Russia has options in countering the West.
In building its network, Russia has tried to focus on economics and enhancing weaknesses in the global network. It expanded its influence abroad, making sure the dependencies it was encouraging were strong enough to give it leverage but lose enough to allow its withdrawal when necessary. Russian strategy certainly has its weaknesses, but Russia has options in countering the West during the current global economic war. Supporting EU fragmentation through its economic ties in Europe and using the knowledge of European politics that its gained over the years are likely the most important elements of its strategy. The moment European citizens feel the repercussion of Western sanctions is when the bloc will become more fragile, which will allow Russia to exploit the EUs weaknesses.
The world is witnessing its first economic world war of the modern era. The rules are undefined, and the global economy is complex, meaning collateral damage is unavoidable and frequently unpredictable. Slowly, we are becoming aware of the repercussions the sanctions on Russia are having on the global economy. Less clear are the instruments that Russia can employ against the West. How this will change the world is a mystery. All we can do is look back at what Russia has prepared for and guess what could come next. This is only the beginning.
Antonia Colibasanuis chief operating officer of Geopolitical Futures.
More: This global-conflict expert sees a bleak end for the Ukraine war and for Putin
Also read: American foreign policy needs radical surgery
View post:
- In defence of the state pension triple lock - UK in a Changing Europe - November 20th, 2023 [November 20th, 2023]
- Driving an entrepreneurship culture | Print Edition - The Sunday ... - The Sunday Times Sri Lanka - November 20th, 2023 [November 20th, 2023]
- NTSA embarks on Road safety sensitisation drives as heavy rains ... - Capital FM Kenya - November 20th, 2023 [November 20th, 2023]
- How We Dealt with Environmental Events in the Past can Help Us ... - One Green Planet - November 13th, 2023 [November 13th, 2023]
- Djibouti is sinking deeper into socio-economic distress. Can the ... - Nation - November 13th, 2023 [November 13th, 2023]
- Thailands tectonic political shift - East Asia Forum - November 13th, 2023 [November 13th, 2023]
- Our climate and nature response: the imperative and opportunity - New Zealand Herald - November 13th, 2023 [November 13th, 2023]
- Police in Marsabit launch manhunt killers of security officer - Nation - November 13th, 2023 [November 13th, 2023]
- Odds stacked against Team CR's attempts to emulate champs - IOL - November 13th, 2023 [November 13th, 2023]
- Total War: Warhammer makes the likes of Total War: Pharaoh feel ... - TechRadar - November 13th, 2023 [November 13th, 2023]
- Quo Vadis Iran? The future of the Islamic Republic after the protests ... - Real Instituto Elcano - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- NWest economic decline leads job shedding crisis in SA Leon ... - Politicsweb - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- A pawn in the ANCs betrayal of SAs developmental agenda - DFA - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- Alarmist headlines about evictions should be ignored in favour of ... - Property Industry Eye - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- The role of women's activism in the fight for Ukraine's freedom - RTE.ie - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- Role of ecological governance in resilience building - Newsday Zimbabwe - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- I'll Explore New Wealth Creation Methods In Kogi Melaye - Leadership News - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- Gift of the Givers conference and Africa Day - Daily Maverick - May 22nd, 2023 [May 22nd, 2023]
- REDcycle's collapse is more proof that plastic recycling is a broken ... - December 30th, 2022 [December 30th, 2022]
- The COVID-19 pandemic and health inequalities - October 30th, 2022 [October 30th, 2022]
- Column: The hope and warning of Iran's protests - Meadville Tribune - October 15th, 2022 [October 15th, 2022]
- Collapse of the Atlantic northwest cod fishery - Wikipedia - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- Economists debunk the banking system and win the Nobel Prize - Cointelegraph - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- Elizabeth Shackelford: The hope and warning of Iran's protests - Rochester Post Bulletin - October 13th, 2022 [October 13th, 2022]
- The Taliban's Triumph Has Been Afghanistan's Tragedy - The National Interest Online - September 2nd, 2022 [September 2nd, 2022]
- GDP is (almost) everything, and that's the problem - Resilience - September 2nd, 2022 [September 2nd, 2022]
- Victoria 3 Launches On October 25th, Bringing The Victorian Era To Life In Paradox's Grand Strategy Sim - MMORPG.com - September 2nd, 2022 [September 2nd, 2022]
- Protests, 'biznez' and a failed coup: journalist Monica Attard on covering the empire Gorbachev allowed to collapse - The Conversation - September 2nd, 2022 [September 2nd, 2022]
- The life and death of Italian centrism - Social Europe - September 2nd, 2022 [September 2nd, 2022]
- Giving a dam in the Mekong basin - Policy Forum - September 2nd, 2022 [September 2nd, 2022]
- Pakistan's history of disasters and the lessons we fail to learn - DAWN.com - September 2nd, 2022 [September 2nd, 2022]
- Elections shed light on rise of racism, discrimination in Sweden | Daily Sabah - Daily Sabah - September 2nd, 2022 [September 2nd, 2022]
- Moses parts the Red Devil sea - Iola Register - September 2nd, 2022 [September 2nd, 2022]
- Adapt or reap the whirlwind of the rising seas: Protect Battery Park City from the encroaching Hudson River - New York Daily News - August 29th, 2022 [August 29th, 2022]
- Why Lebanese citizens are joining the migrant tide out of the Middle East - Arab News - August 29th, 2022 [August 29th, 2022]
- Iranians Call for Prosecution of Raisi, Instead of Welcoming Him at UN - Iran Focus - August 29th, 2022 [August 29th, 2022]
- CISLAC to Governors: Sacrifice your jumbo pays to salvage imminent economic collapse - The Eagle Online - August 15th, 2022 [August 15th, 2022]
- Are Humans an Invasive Species? - EARTH.ORG - August 15th, 2022 [August 15th, 2022]
- Jose Rodriguez came to America looking for a brighter future. He ended up a casualty in the political battle over immigration between Texas and New... - August 15th, 2022 [August 15th, 2022]
- Small Island Developing States: Looking Past the COVID-19 Pandemic - Harvard International Review - July 27th, 2022 [July 27th, 2022]
- Growing India-Vietnam economic relations - Times of India - July 27th, 2022 [July 27th, 2022]
- Lebanon Ranked As The Angriest Country In The World - The961 - June 29th, 2022 [June 29th, 2022]
- Let's be honest with our economics - NewsDay - June 29th, 2022 [June 29th, 2022]
- Socio-economic meltdown leaves Lebanese hanging on by a thread | | UN ... - June 24th, 2022 [June 24th, 2022]
- UN and Australia give dignity kits to women and girls in Sri Lanka ... - June 24th, 2022 [June 24th, 2022]
- Parliamentary Elections and the Future of the Armenian Community in Lebanon - Armenian Weekly - June 24th, 2022 [June 24th, 2022]
- A Glimpse of the Chin State and Beyond: One Year after the Military Coup in Myanmar - PRESSENZA International News Agency - June 24th, 2022 [June 24th, 2022]
- Hobbled Economic Performance during Modi's Eight Years: Solution has been the Problem - HW News English - June 18th, 2022 [June 18th, 2022]
- Over 70 Crypto Currencies Have Lost 90% Of Their Value Since Their Peak, Bitcoin Rises - Outlook India - June 18th, 2022 [June 18th, 2022]
- Chinas Xi Jinping Could Knowingly Start a War Without Victory - RealClearDefense - June 18th, 2022 [June 18th, 2022]
- Muse: There's gonna be a big shift. We're dealing with a disruptive transition - NME - June 15th, 2022 [June 15th, 2022]
- Cryptocurrency is a symptom of the death of the American dream - The New Statesman - June 15th, 2022 [June 15th, 2022]
- A conflict of professional ethics and ambition in NAATCO's Off-Broadway debut of 'Queen' at ART/New York - DC Theater Arts - DC Metro Theater Arts - June 15th, 2022 [June 15th, 2022]
- Nigeria-2023: Money politics and theft of democracy - Blueprint Newspapers Limited - June 15th, 2022 [June 15th, 2022]
- 25.12: The Collapse of the Soviet Union: A Timeline of Key Events - June 5th, 2022 [June 5th, 2022]
- Scale, context, and heterogeneity: the complexity of the social space | Scientific Reports - Nature.com - June 3rd, 2022 [June 3rd, 2022]
- Last one to leave Ireland, please switch off the lights - The Irish Times - June 3rd, 2022 [June 3rd, 2022]
- Governments on Road to Collapse as Global Supply Chain Crisis ... - May 27th, 2022 [May 27th, 2022]
- Dissolution of Russia - Wikipedia - May 27th, 2022 [May 27th, 2022]
- Lecture at Institute of Human Rights, Guangzhou University: Human rights in the world: the role of multilateralism - OHCHR - May 27th, 2022 [May 27th, 2022]
- 13 books and reports on science, impacts, solutions, and actors - Yale Climate Connections - May 27th, 2022 [May 27th, 2022]
- What Europe still needs to do to save its bees - EUobserver - May 27th, 2022 [May 27th, 2022]
- Waving the Lion Flag - Groundviews - May 25th, 2022 [May 25th, 2022]
- Special briefing: Lebanese elections reshape the political scene - Middle East Institute - May 25th, 2022 [May 25th, 2022]
- Oil hazards aren't the main worry of Nigeria's coastal residents: toilets are - The Conversation - May 25th, 2022 [May 25th, 2022]
- MAREE TODD: Sharp focus on cost-of-living crisis in Caithness - JohnOGroat Journal - May 25th, 2022 [May 25th, 2022]
- Emefiele at CBN: Preserving Today, Protecting the future - THISDAY Newspapers - May 3rd, 2022 [May 3rd, 2022]
- Five things to know to start your Monday - Businessday - May 3rd, 2022 [May 3rd, 2022]
- 2023: Workers and political participation - Blueprint Newspapers Limited - May 3rd, 2022 [May 3rd, 2022]
- How Africa can respond to the seismic changes in the world: lessons from history - The Conversation Indonesia - May 1st, 2022 [May 1st, 2022]
- Workers Day: Onus on staff to upskill themselves - The Citizen - May 1st, 2022 [May 1st, 2022]
- Green capitalism is not the solution to South Africas energy crisis - News24 - May 1st, 2022 [May 1st, 2022]
- Rwanda most effective low-income country - report | The New Times - The New Times - May 1st, 2022 [May 1st, 2022]
- The 'Panic Masters': is postgraduate study the solution to your career crisis? - Epigram - May 1st, 2022 [May 1st, 2022]
- Homophobia and transphobia have more in common than you think - Dazed - May 1st, 2022 [May 1st, 2022]
- New Phase in Dalit Politics: Crisis or Regeneration? - Outlook India - April 20th, 2022 [April 20th, 2022]
- Crikey Worm: Following the leaders? - Crikey - April 20th, 2022 [April 20th, 2022]
- Security Implications of ASUU Strikes, by Hassan Gimba - The Source - April 20th, 2022 [April 20th, 2022]
- The socio-economic consequences of COVID-19 in the Middle ... - April 13th, 2022 [April 13th, 2022]
- The broken record keeps playing the same song - FXStreet - April 13th, 2022 [April 13th, 2022]