Dissolution of Russia – Wikipedia

The dissolution of Russia is a hypothetical unraveling of the Russian Federation from a unified state to various potential independent successor states.[1] The topic is the subject of hundreds of articles on the Internet.[2]

The current Russian Federation is the primary successor state of the Soviet Union. Various trends and problems which may challenge the permanence of the unified Russian Federation have been discussed publicly and in academia by figures such as Garry Kasparov, Mikhail Leontyev, Herman Gref, Maxim Kalashnikov, Sergey Kurginyan, Alexander Prokhanov, Natalya Narochnitskaya, and Dmitry Medvedev.[1]

The chief researcher of the Institute of philosophy of the Russian Academy of Sciences, V. Shevchenko, when reviewing the article "The collapse of Russia in the early 21st century in the statements of contemporaries" by O. Yu. Maslova, noted that it contains a large collection of authors on the theme of Russian disintegration. These authors range from diehard supporters of the idea that the collapse of Russia is almost inevitable and has already begun, to supporters of the idea of artificial and deliberate attempts at making the country collapse.[1]

The main reason for the disintegration processes and the possible collapse of Russia, according to V. Shevchenko's review work, "The Future of Russia: Strategies for philosophical Understanding," is the lack of a national idea or project (such as Communism in the Soviet Union) that would unite all peoples of Russia. Russian statehood, as he sees it, is in a transitional state in which all processes have become more active: both integration and disintegration.[1]

He went on to list the accompanying reasons for Russia's possible collapse as:

In his article, his opinion is that the disintegration has in fact already begun. Signs he points to include legal extraterritoriality, the removal of persons of non-titular nationality in national republics from the state apparatus[vague], and the radicalization of Islam.[1]

In the late 1990s and early 2000s, the Russian government forbade Tatarstan from switching from the Cyrillic script to the Latin alphabet, fearing that such a move would disrupt internal unity and result in dissolution.[3] On the other hand, in the 2020s, Kazakhstan began moving towards the Latin alphabet, and this is believed to be to distance itself from Russian influence.[4] The Russian government strives to make all of the languages of Russia use Cyrillic to enforce unity[5].

A report to the Izborsky club, a group of analysts led by A. Kobyakov, listed the lines of division in modern Russian society that could potentially lead to the collapse of the state: socio-economic inequality, interethnic relations, alienation of elites from the people, and opposition of the "creative class" to the rest of society.[1]

The culturologist I. Yakovenko believes that the main reason for the disintegration processes is the uneven process of market modernization in different regions of Russia, which increases the economic isolation of these regions from one another. Yakovenko identifies the following regions into which in his opinion the Russian Federation may break up: North and South of Russia, Siberia, the North Caucasus and the intercontinental border.[1]

According to the mathematician Georgiy Malinetsky,[6] there are some possible reasons for the collapse of Russia:

The post-WW2 sphere of influence (the Eastern Bloc and the Warsaw Pact) collapsed in 1991 with the aforementioned dissolution of the Soviet Union. The dissolution was largely non-violent, though it has been argued that the violence of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (February 2022) resulted from the Soviet dissolution.[7] In 2022, within weeks of this invasion, some commentators predicted an eventual Russian collapse as a result, especially once it became obvious that Vladimir Putin's "special military operation" was not going to be a quick victory.[8][9][10][11] Some have been more specific, and have stated such a collapse could happen by 2025-2027[9]

In an interview with the magazine Expert in April 2005, the head of the presidential administration, Dmitry Medvedev said:[1]

If we fail to consolidate the elite, Russia may disappear as a single state. [...] The consequences will be monstrous. The disintegration of the Union may seem like a matinee in the kindergarten compared to the state collapse in modern Russia.

Dmitry Medvedev

In 2011, during a meeting of the government commission[which?] for the development of the North Caucasian Federal District in Gudermes, Vladimir Putin said what would happen if the Caucasus suddenly left Russia:[12]

If this happens, then, at the same moment not even an hour, but a second there will be those who want to do the same with other territorial entities of Russia, [...] and it will be a tragedy that will affect every citizen of Russia without exception.

Vladimir Putin

As in any country with land borders, there are many ethnicities living in Russia related or identical to the titular ethnic groups of neighboring countries. In some of these border regions, irredentist ideas are expressed about the reunification of divided peoples.

In Buryatia and two Buryat autonomous okrugs, one of which is the Ust-Orda Buryat Okrug, ideas are being expressed of joining Mongolia as part of the idea of pan-Mongolism.[13][14]

Some Kazakh nationalists wish to recover Orenburg, the former capital of the Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic, and now part of Russia in the Omsk Oblast.[15]

The idea of uniting Finland and Karelia into a Greater Finland (the Karelian question) used to be popular among part of the population in Finland and Karelia.[16][17]

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Dissolution of Russia - Wikipedia