My main profession these days is as a filmmakerand while I remain fully committed to beating scams, collecting cons andprotecting the public, I am always working on funding that next movie,documentary or series.
One story that I would love to tell has beenfilmed before but in my opinion remains an untapped source for a brilliantlyfunny, suspenseful adventure featuring a gang of English middle-class misfitsbreaking the bank of an iconic European casino.
This is what they did, how they did it, and whyit hasnt happened since.
In my version of this story, Norman Leigh wouldbe straight out of an Ealing comedy casting book a mixture of Alistair Sims,Sir John Mills and Bill Nighy.
An English gentleman with a plan to beat casinoson the continent with a seemingly ingenious twist on an old betting strategy.
To realize this plan, Norman placed an ad in thenewspaper that attracted the interest of a dozen characters who could each befound in a usual suspects line-up of 1960s English society.
This included an undercover policeman who believedthe scheme might be some kind of con or a fraud against the gamblingestablishment but soon discovered that Normans idea was perfectly legal andseemingly, a sure-fire way to beat the casinos at their own game.
He was so convinced that he took a leave ofabsence and joined Normans team!
The game was roulette, and the system was the Reverse Labouchere.
First, lets start with the Labouchere system that is relatively simple to understand but do bear with me as it can seem more complicated than it actually is.
This type of system is designed for (almost)50/50 type bets like red/black on the roulette table.
The player starts with a series of numbers whichcan be as short as three digits, but longer strings can be used with somegamblers insisting certain combinations offer better odds (I would advise youto ignore this because ultimately the flaws in such systems remain thesame).
So lets say you write down a string of digitsas follows: 1-2-3.
The sum of these digits is 6, and thats theamount you should expect to win if this plays out in your favor.
To play, you must always bet the sum of thefirst and last digits in your string.
In this case it is 1 + 3, which means the firstbet is $4.
The rules are that if you LOSE that bet you addthe amount of the bet to the end of your string of digits, which would become1-2-3-4.
This would continue for each loss, the next betbeing $5 (1 + 4 the sum of first and last digit) adding the number 5 to theend of your string should you lose.
But what if you win?
When you win, you delete the first and lastnumbers and then add the first and last remaining numbers of your stringof digits.
Lets say you win the third bet, which was a $6bet since 1 and 5 were the first and last digits after losing the second bet.
You now delete the first and last digits (the 1and the 5) leaving you with 2-3-4 as your remaining string.
And so it continues until your string of numbersis erased by enough wins (if you get down to just one digit remaining of yourstring thats the amount you bet).
In the end, if you erase all your digits, yourprofit will equal the sum of the digits in your initial string.
I told you it would seem complicated but playwith this for a few imaginary bets (maybe toss a coin and bet heads and tailswith this system) and youll see that its really quite simple.
So long as you dont hit a long series oflosses, you can absolutely make your target amount (the sum of your initialstring of numbers) providing you have deep enough pockets to increase your betswhenever you lose.
In this sense, its really just a version of the Martingale and can be both fun to play and deceptively effective over time.
But, just like the Martingale, its primarily abetting strategy; not a playing system that offers any kind of advantageagainst the house.
Norman Leighs preferred version was called theReverse Labouchere because it increased bets when the player won anddecreased bets when they lost.
As with the Labouchere, the Reverse requiresplayers to write down or mentally track a string of numbers.
Like the Labouchere, bets are decided by addingthe first and last digits of the string but here you will add your winningbets to the end and delete the first and last digits when you lose the exact opposite of the method dictated by the Labouchere.
So if you lose the first two bets, the string isdeleted and you either begin again with a fresh string (in our example, 1-2-3)or leave the table.
If you win, however, you add the winning bet tothe end (1-2-3-4) and then bet again by adding the first and last digits ($5).
Continue until you reach a pre-determined profit,at which point you either retire from the table or start a fresh string (1-2-3)and pocket your winnings from that round of play.
In effect, it is a money management systemsimilar to that of gambling legend Nick The Greek whose book Gambling Secretsof Nick The Greek amounted to bet more when youre winning and less whenyoure losing!
The 13 players who descended upon Nice, France,and Monte Carlo, Monaco, were also able to increase the amount being risked,since Normans bankroll was distributed between theplayers who were essentially hiding in plain sight.
And did it work?
Did Norman and his 12 cohorts defeat thecasinos?
You bet they did!
Norman and his dapper dozen broke the bank atMonte Carlo and Norman was quickly blacklisted, despite the casino having noidea what he was doing to beat their games.
If they had known and had they been smart they should have given Norman and his crew free rooms for a fortnight andwatched them blow back every penny that theyd previously won thanks to pureluck.
Heres the rub:
The Reverse Labouchere doesnt change the odds,it only limits your losses.
But if you keep playing, those losses will addup and while the same system increases returns during a winning streak the onlyway to benefit from that is to stop playing, which they did only thanks tothe casinos shutting them all down!
Other than a dry TV Mini-series, the adventures of Norman Leigh are best presented in his book Thirteen Against The Bank and Id rather you read that than spoil all the details for you here.
It would make a fantastic comedy adventure foranyone who owns the rights and can raise the budget; theres a fantastic storyto be told but theres one factor many neglect to mention in the telling: Thatits never been repeated.
Martingale-type systems chase ever-increasinglosses until stopped by the table limit or a players limited bankroll.
Such losses can be a lot more than players mightimagine thanks to the nature of random outcomes and the fact that gamblingdevices have no memory, so it is entirely possible for a 50/50 outcome not tooccur after dozens of fair rolls, spins or turns.
The same can be true for a series of wins and inthe case of Norman Leigh and his assault on Monte Carlo, he was simply thebenefactor of a terrific run of luck that was halted before the tide could turnthe other way as it always, always does.
That being said, in my movie, the ending wouldbe better
Read this article:
R. Paul Wilson On: Norman Leigh And The Reverse Labouchere System - Casino.Org News
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