It was definitely not a good night for Donald Trump, Mike Madrid, a California GOP strategist and co-founder of the anti-Trump Lincoln Project, said.
By most metrics, the path to [stopping Trump] has become much clearer, Madrid said. The anti-Trump lane is discernible. Its palpable. Its big. Its something that we can work with in a real, meaningful way.
On the surface, the results from Iowa and New Hampshire look just plain bad for the anti-Trump movement. A former president facing 91 criminal charges and splitting his time between the courtroom and the campaign trail won over 50 percent of the vote in both states. In New Hampshire, where the GOP field quickly shrunk to two, independent voters, whose exit polls showed broke overwhelmingly for Haley, were trumped by Trumps GOP base.
The next two contests offer even less hope for impeding Trumps march toward the nomination. Haley is not competing for delegates in Nevada. And Trump leads her by double digits in polls of her home state of South Carolina.
Leaders of the effort to warn voters about a second Trump term say that focusing on the primary is a lost cause. They argue that Trumps nomination is inevitable and that the focus should shift now to trying to defeat him in the general election.
Its all doom and gloom in the primary, said Charlie Sykes, a conservative Wisconsin political commentator. But this has been predictable for a long time now.
Trumps detractors point to data from Iowa and New Hampshire that show some warning signs for Trump, particularly among independents and more moderate Republicans. In New Hampshire, 64 percent of undeclared voters sided with Haley, according to exit polls.
Exit polls showed four out of 10 people who cast a ballot for Nikki Haley in New Hampshire said they did so out of distaste for Donald Trump. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO
A pre-caucus NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of voters in Iowa found that 43 percent of Haley supporters said they would back President Joe Biden over Trump.
And in New Hampshire, 46 percent of GOP primary voters said they would be dissatisfied if Trump became the GOP nominee, and 35 percent said they would not vote for him in November.
Exit polls also showed four out of 10 people who cast a ballot for Haley in New Hampshire said they did so out of distaste for Trump. And 94 percent of Haleys voters said they would be dissatisfied if Trump won the nomination.
Fully half of Iowas Republican caucusgoers said they did not identify as part of Trumps Make America Great Again movement. Even more 63 percent said the same in New Hampshire.
That significant chunks of voters from two disparate (though still overwhelmingly white) electorates showed similar resistance to Trump is encouraging to both Sykes and Madrid.
Looking at these numbers and Trumps general approval [ratings] amongst Republicans and also election results from the last three elections, they are all pointing in a direction of getting worse for Trump not better, Madrid said.
Fergus Cullen, a Never Trump Republican and former New Hampshire Republican Party chair who voted for Haley on Tuesday, called those statistics the best result from yesterday.
Citing the 35 percent of voters who said they wouldnt vote for Trump in the general election, Cullen said, Imagine if 35 percent of GOP elected officials said the same thing. Those of us who oppose Trump may not be able to prevent his renomination, but we should be able to prevent him from winning a general.
Still, Trump has defied political gravity before, and many Trump critics after he left office once believed he was unlikely to win renomination. Cullen said Trump does have some ability to find new voters and expand the electorate.
Even though Biden and Trump have declared the general election effectively underway, Haley has not. The former South Carolina governor has vowed to continue through Super Tuesday, where her campaign argues a slate of open and semi-open primaries will give her a fighting chance.
And some Never Trumpers arent ready to look ahead to the general election yet. They want her to keep going.
Theres tons and tons of ammunition for her to make the case that [Trump] is unfit to be president, said Gordon Humphrey, a former U.S. senator from New Hampshire who left the party after Trump won the nomination in 2016 and supported Haley in Tuesdays primary.
Yet Sean Van Anglen, a New Hampshire political consultant who was an early supporter of Trump in 2016 but voted for Haley this time, is already moving on. Van Anglen, who said hed consider leaving the presidential line blank on his November ballot rather than vote for Trump or Biden, is looking to put together an effort to aid down-ballot Republicans who he believes could suffer with Trump again at the top of the ticket.
We need to let the toddler run his temper tantrum out, Van Anglen said. Then let the adults come back into the room and take back control of our party and our country.
Jessica Piper and Steve Shepard contributed to this report.
Read more from the original source:
Why Trump's critics see his New Hampshire win as a positive sign for 2024 - POLITICO - POLITICO
- Republican-controlled Idaho House passes Texas-style immigration bill Idaho Capital Sun - Idaho Capital Sun - April 2nd, 2024 [April 2nd, 2024]
- Georgia judge rules that Republican Brian K. Pritchard voted illegally - The Atlanta Journal Constitution - April 2nd, 2024 [April 2nd, 2024]
- Trump pays $175m New York fraud bond as Truth Social stock takes huge hit- live - The Independent - April 2nd, 2024 [April 2nd, 2024]
- Judges raise alarm over Trumps attacks - The Washington Post - April 2nd, 2024 [April 2nd, 2024]
- Why Trump's alarmist message on immigration may be resonating beyond his base - PBS NewsHour - April 2nd, 2024 [April 2nd, 2024]
- House Republican condemns Democrats sexualization of everything after Easter controversy - Washington Examiner - April 2nd, 2024 [April 2nd, 2024]
- Emery County Republican Lincoln Day Dinner and Convention Hosts Large Crowd and a Full Slate of Candidates - ETV News - April 2nd, 2024 [April 2nd, 2024]
- Who are the candidates in the West Virginia Republican Governors Forum? - WBOY.com - April 2nd, 2024 [April 2nd, 2024]
- The Republican Justices Are Slow-Walking a Key South Carolina Redistricting Case - Balls & Strikes - April 2nd, 2024 [April 2nd, 2024]
- "Never forget": Trump unloads on Republican "cowards and weaklings" in Easter Sunday meltdown - Salon - April 2nd, 2024 [April 2nd, 2024]
- Analysis | The revamped Republican Party turns Trump's lies into a loyalty test - The Washington Post - April 2nd, 2024 [April 2nd, 2024]
- Trump and his MAGA movement stormed the Republican establishment. Now they have become it. - The Fulcrum - April 2nd, 2024 [April 2nd, 2024]
- Senator Helming and Senate Republican Conference Unveil Legislative Package to Expand Availability and Access to ... - The New York State Senate - April 2nd, 2024 [April 2nd, 2024]
- States that lean Republican report more COVID vaccine-related adverse events, study finds - University of Minnesota Twin Cities - April 2nd, 2024 [April 2nd, 2024]
- House Republican condemns Democrats' 'sexualization of everything' after Easter controversy - Colorado Springs Gazette - April 2nd, 2024 [April 2nd, 2024]
- Infuriated House members plot early exits due to Republican dysfunction - Axios - April 2nd, 2024 [April 2nd, 2024]
- State reviewing cop-involved shootings - Waterbury Republican American - April 2nd, 2024 [April 2nd, 2024]
- RNC plan for 2020 denialist to head election integrity unit raises alarms - The Guardian US - April 2nd, 2024 [April 2nd, 2024]
- McConnell casts doubt on border and Ukraine aid deal as GOP fury threatens both - NBC News - January 25th, 2024 [January 25th, 2024]
- Biden Vetoes Republican Measure to Block Electric Vehicle Charging Stations - The New York Times - January 25th, 2024 [January 25th, 2024]
- Wilson Co. Republican Party of TN shares controversial meme referencing hangings - News Channel 5 Nashville - January 25th, 2024 [January 25th, 2024]
- When is the Nevada primary, caucus? What to know about dual contests. - USA TODAY - January 25th, 2024 [January 25th, 2024]
- Electability is all Democrats discussed in 2020. In 2024, Republicans don't care - NPR - January 25th, 2024 [January 25th, 2024]
- Trump racks up endorsements from Republicans in Congress as any resistance that once existed fades - The Associated Press - January 25th, 2024 [January 25th, 2024]
- 'Betrayal': Arizona GOP chair resigns after recording of 'offer' to Kari Lake - USA TODAY - January 25th, 2024 [January 25th, 2024]
- It's Fair to Ask: Is the Republican Race Over? - The New York Times - January 25th, 2024 [January 25th, 2024]
- 'No Time to Go Wobbly': Why Britain Is Lobbying U.S. Republicans on Ukraine - The New York Times - January 25th, 2024 [January 25th, 2024]
- The 2024 Republican Primary Was Over Before It Began - The New Yorker - January 25th, 2024 [January 25th, 2024]
- More GOP holdouts backing Trump as leaders seek unity - Roll Call - January 25th, 2024 [January 25th, 2024]
- House Republicans accuse Penn of 'failure to address antisemitism on its campus' - ABC News - January 25th, 2024 [January 25th, 2024]
- Four reasons why Nikki Haley may be staying in the race for the Republican nomination | Brookings - Brookings Institution - January 25th, 2024 [January 25th, 2024]
- The United Auto Workers union endorsed Biden today - NPR - January 25th, 2024 [January 25th, 2024]
- After Early Primary Victories, Republicans in Congress Fall in Line Behind Trump - The New York Times - January 25th, 2024 [January 25th, 2024]
- Kari Lake is running for U.S. Senate from Arizona. The AZGOP tried to stop her. - NPR - January 25th, 2024 [January 25th, 2024]
- New Hampshire exit polls: Republicans were just half of voters in their own primary - Reuters.com - January 25th, 2024 [January 25th, 2024]
- NH primary plays outsized role in determining future of the Republican Party - NPR - January 25th, 2024 [January 25th, 2024]
- Trump wins 2024 New Hampshire primary - The Associated Press - January 25th, 2024 [January 25th, 2024]
- House Republicans now have one of the smallest majorities in history - NBC News - January 25th, 2024 [January 25th, 2024]
- Time to back Trump: Republican donors accept the inevitable - The Guardian US - January 25th, 2024 [January 25th, 2024]
- Trump wins New Hampshire primary, further solidifying path to 2024 presidential election - Axios - January 25th, 2024 [January 25th, 2024]
- Does Nikki Haley have a chance in South Carolina's primary? Here's what some voters are saying - ABC News - January 25th, 2024 [January 25th, 2024]
- Trump and Biden shift focus to general election rematch as Haley fights on - Reuters.com - January 25th, 2024 [January 25th, 2024]
- Biden: Its clear Trump will be Republican nominee - The Hill - January 25th, 2024 [January 25th, 2024]
- Election 2024: Haley Heads Home to Keep Up Fight as Trump and Biden Look to Rematch - The New York Times - January 25th, 2024 [January 25th, 2024]
- AP Votecast: How and why New Hampshire voted in 2024 primary - The Associated Press - January 25th, 2024 [January 25th, 2024]
- Republicans zero in on a new border the one with Canada - NBC News - January 25th, 2024 [January 25th, 2024]
- Arizona Republican Party boss tried to keep Kari Lake out of Senate race by dangling job - The Arizona Republic - January 25th, 2024 [January 25th, 2024]
- Iowa Republican caucus date set for Jan. 15, 2024 - POLITICO - POLITICO - July 9th, 2023 [July 9th, 2023]
- Republicans sound alarm over DeSantiss sagging campaign - The Hill - July 9th, 2023 [July 9th, 2023]
- Opinion | Can the Republican Party Reverse Course? - The New York Times - July 9th, 2023 [July 9th, 2023]
- Reagans Republican Party Wouldnt Think Twice About Aid to Ukraine - Yahoo News - July 9th, 2023 [July 9th, 2023]
- Trump Wont Campaign at a July 4 Parade, but Other Republican ... - The New York Times - July 9th, 2023 [July 9th, 2023]
- Nearly a quarter of Republicans say classified docs charges make them more likely to support Trump: poll - The Hill - July 9th, 2023 [July 9th, 2023]
- Which Republicans Have Pledged to Support Their Nominee - The New York Times - July 9th, 2023 [July 9th, 2023]
- Calling robust Republican representation in Groton - theday.com - July 9th, 2023 [July 9th, 2023]
- John Roberts Is the Last Republican - New York Magazine - July 9th, 2023 [July 9th, 2023]
- House Republicans' Impeachment Fever Is a Gift to Democrats - The New Republic - July 9th, 2023 [July 9th, 2023]
- 'Boebert wokest Republican yet' The Durango Herald - The Durango Herald - July 9th, 2023 [July 9th, 2023]
- Ole Town Republican Party in a hole - theday.com - July 9th, 2023 [July 9th, 2023]
- Republicans Want to Mandate a Single Style of Architecture in ... - POLITICO - July 9th, 2023 [July 9th, 2023]
- Republicans Are Divided on Impeaching Biden as Panel Begins ... - The New York Times - July 9th, 2023 [July 9th, 2023]
- Impactful Quartet of Center-Right grassroots groups aim to advance ... - City-sentinel - July 9th, 2023 [July 9th, 2023]
- Ron DeSantis: 10 things to know about the Republican White House hopeful - The Guardian US - May 24th, 2023 [May 24th, 2023]
- Opinion | The Four Freedoms, According to Republicans - The New York Times - May 24th, 2023 [May 24th, 2023]
- Greene says no one is concerned about debt default in Republican conference - The Hill - May 24th, 2023 [May 24th, 2023]
- Republican concerns may halt permanent extension of expanded ... - New Hampshire Bulletin - May 24th, 2023 [May 24th, 2023]
- The Ever-Growing 2024 Republican Primary Field : The NPR ... - NPR - May 24th, 2023 [May 24th, 2023]
- Why the Republican Job Requirements Push Won't Actually Get ... - TIME - May 24th, 2023 [May 24th, 2023]
- Key Republican urges McCarthy, GOP to hold the line in debt ceiling talks - The Hill - May 24th, 2023 [May 24th, 2023]
- South Carolina GOP Passes 6-Week Abortion Ban, Sends Bill to ... - Democracy Now! - May 24th, 2023 [May 24th, 2023]
- Opinion | Vivek Ramaswamys Long Shot Run at the Republican ... - The New York Times - May 24th, 2023 [May 24th, 2023]
- Ohio Republican attack on higher ed will devastate our widely ... - Ohio Capital Journal - May 24th, 2023 [May 24th, 2023]
- Childless Adults Will Bear the Brunt of Republican Cuts to the Safety ... - The New Republic - May 24th, 2023 [May 24th, 2023]
- Opinion | George Santos Must Be Held Accountable by Republican ... - The New York Times - May 24th, 2023 [May 24th, 2023]
- Republican James Follweiler to be on ballot in Bethlehem City ... - 69News WFMZ-TV - May 24th, 2023 [May 24th, 2023]
- Why Republicans school board takeovers are faltering with voters - Vox.com - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Arizona Republicans have gotten most of what they wanted this year - The Arizona Republic - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Trump-backed Daniel Cameron wins GOP primary for Kentucky governor, will face incumbent Democrat Andy Beshear - Fox News - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- DEI divide: Republicans and Democrats split on workplace diversity - USA TODAY - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]
- Republican who expanded Kentucky voting opportunities wins primary - The Guardian US - May 18th, 2023 [May 18th, 2023]