MOSCOW Russians thought they knew their president.
They were wrong.
And by Thursday, it appeared too late to do anything about it.
For most of his 22-year rule, Vladimir V. Putin presented an aura of calm determination at home of an ability to astutely manage risk to navigate the worlds biggest country through treacherous shoals. His attack on Ukraine negated that image, and revealed him as an altogether different leader: one dragging the nuclear superpower he helms into a war with no foreseeable conclusion, one that by all appearances will end Russias attempts over its three post-Soviet decades to find a place in a peaceful world order.
Russians awoke in shock after they learned that Mr. Putin, in an address to the nation that aired before 6 a.m., had ordered a full-scale assault against what Russians of all political stripes often refer to as their brotherly nation.
There was no spontaneous pro-war jubilation. Instead, liberal-leaning public figures who for years tried to compromise with and adapt to Mr. Putins creeping authoritarianism found themselves reduced to posting on social media about their opposition to a war they had no way to stop.
Other Russians expressed themselves more openly. From St. Petersburg to Siberia, thousands took to city streets chanting No to war!, clips posted on social media showed, despite an overwhelming presence by police officers. OVD Info, a rights group, said more than 1,700 people were arrested across the country.
And in Moscows foreign policy establishment, where analysts overwhelmingly characterized Mr. Putins military buildup around Ukraine as an elaborate and astute bluff in recent months, many admitted on Thursday that they had monumentally misjudged a man they had spent decades studying.
Everything that we believed turned out to be wrong, said one such analyst, insisting on anonymity because he was at a loss over what to say.
I dont understand the motivations, the goals or the possible results, said another. What is happening is very strange.
Ive always tried to understand Putin, a third analyst, Tatiana Stanovaya of the political analysis firm R. Politik, reflected. But now, she said, the usefulness of logic seemed at a limit. He has become less pragmatic, and more emotional.
On state television, Mr. Putins most powerful propaganda tool, the Kremlin tried to project an air of normalcy. The state-run news media characterized Thursdays invasion as not a war, but a special military operation limited to eastern Ukraine. Mr. Putin was shown meeting with the visiting prime minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan, as though he were still shrewdly carrying on his day-to-day business.
This is not the beginning of a war, Maria V. Zakharova, the foreign ministrys spokeswoman, said on television. Our desire is to prevent developments that could escalate into a global war.
Meanwhile, Russias stock market plummeted by 35 percent and A.T.M.s ran short of dollars. On the countrys internet, still mostly uncensored, Russians saw their vaunted military sow carnage in a country in which millions of them had relatives and friends.
The world has turned upside down, said Anastasia, 44, protesting the war in central Moscow Thursday evening despite an imposing presence of riot police officers, and bursting into tears. She gave only her first name for fear of reprisal. I cannot even imagine the consequences; this is a catastrophe.
Many Russians had bought into the Kremlins narrative that theirs was a peace-loving country, and Mr. Putin a careful and calculating leader. After all, many Russians still believe, it was Mr. Putin who lifted their country out of the poverty and chaos of the 1990s and made it into a place with a decent standard of living and worthy of international respect.
Its so strange that Russia could attack anyone, a 60-year-old pensioner said on Thursday as she walked through the breathtaking Moscow park, Zaryadye, that international architects designed ahead of the soccer World Cup Russia hosted in 2018. This has never happened before in history.
Like many on Thursday, she declined to reveal her name in the fear that the outbreak of war could bring with it a new crackdown on peoples freedoms.
One of the countrys ever-dwindling number of rights activists, Marina Litvinovich, called for an antiwar protest to be held in Moscow on Thursday evening, and was promptly arrested. Police buses and riot police descended on Pushkin Square, where she had urged people to gather. An actor posted a directive from his state-run Moscow theater claiming that any negative commentary about the war would be seen by the authorities as treason.
In the last three months, as American officials warned that Mr. Putins troop buildup was a prelude to an invasion, Russians dismissed such talk as a Western failure to understand their presidents fundamental determination to manage risk and avoid rash moves with unpredictable consequences. And with leading opposition figures imprisoned or exiled, there were few figures with the influence to organize an antiwar movement.
Some public figures with ties to the government reversed course, though they recognized it was too late. Ivan Urgant, the most prominent late-night comedian on state television, had ridiculed the idea of a looming war on his show earlier this month. On Thursday he posted a black square on Instagram along with the words: Fear and pain.
Ksenia Sobchak, another television celebrity whose father was mayor of St. Petersburg and a 1990s mentor to Mr. Putin, posted on Instagram that from now on she would only believe in the worst possible scenarios about her countrys future. Days earlier, she had praised Mr. Putin as a grown-up, adequate politician compared to his Ukrainian and American counterparts.
We are now all trapped in this situation, she wrote on Thursday. There is no exit. We Russians will spend many years digging out from the consequences of this day.
During the pandemic, analysts had noticed a change in Mr. Putin a man who isolated himself in a bubble of social distancing without parallel among Western leaders. In isolation, he appeared to become more aggrieved and more emotional, and increasingly spoke about his mission in stark historical terms. His public remarks descended ever deeper into distorted historiography as he spoke of the need to right perceived historical wrongs suffered by Russia over the centuries at the hands of the West.
The political scientist Gleb O. Pavlovsky, a close adviser to Mr. Putin until falling out with him in 2011, said he was stunned by the presidents dark description of Ukraine as a dire threat to Russia in his hourlong speech to the nation on Monday.
I have no clue where he got all that he seems to be reading something totally strange, Mr. Pavlovsky said. Hes become an isolated man, more isolated than Stalin was.
Ms. Stanovaya, the analyst, said she now felt that Mr. Putins heightened obsession with history in recent years had become key to understanding his motivation. After all, the war against Ukraine appeared impossible to explain strategically, since it had no clear resolution and would inevitably only increase anti-Russian sentiment abroad and escalate Russias confrontation with the NATO alliance.
Putin has brought himself to a place in which he sees it as more important, more interesting, more compelling to fight for restoring historical justice than for Russias strategic priorities, Ms. Stanovaya said. This morning, I realized that a certain shift has taken place.
She said that by all appearances, the ruling elite around Mr. Putin did not realize that Thursdays war was coming, and was uncertain about how to respond. Beyond state television personalities and pro-Kremlin politicians, few prominent Russians spoke out in support of the war.
But that, she said, did not mean that Mr. Putin risked any kind of palace coup, given his tight hold on the countrys sprawling security apparatus and his expansive crackdown on dissent over the last year.
He can still act for a long time, Ms. Stanovaya said. Inside Russia, he is practically secure from political risk.
Alina Lobzina and Oleg Matsnev contributed reporting from Moscow, and Ivan Nechepurenko from Rostov-on-Don, Russia.
Originally posted here:
Russians Now See a New Side to Putin: Dragging Them Into War
- EU and Ukraine explore special tribunal for Putin and war officials - Euronews - April 6th, 2024 [April 6th, 2024]
- Do Russians Believe Putin's Propaganda? | TIME - TIME - April 6th, 2024 [April 6th, 2024]
- Opinion | Putins Russia throws a lifeline to North Korea - The Washington Post - April 6th, 2024 [April 6th, 2024]
- U.S. told Russia that Crocus City Hall was possible target of attack - The Washington Post - April 6th, 2024 [April 6th, 2024]
- Escaping Putin's War Machine - Reveal - Reveal from The Center for Investigative Reporting - April 6th, 2024 [April 6th, 2024]
- Putin ally Patrushev says NATO is helping attacks on Russia from Ukraine - Reuters - April 6th, 2024 [April 6th, 2024]
- Pine nuts: Mr. Putin, draw down that weapon - Sierra Sun - April 6th, 2024 [April 6th, 2024]
- What's behind Putin's attempts to link Ukraine to Moscow terror attack? - Voice of America - VOA News - April 6th, 2024 [April 6th, 2024]
- Ukraine tells Trump to emulate Reagan as Putin readies major spring offensive - POLITICO Europe - April 6th, 2024 [April 6th, 2024]
- 'Ein Schock fr Putin': Ukraine Bombs Three Russian Air Bases, Then Vows To Send Its Drones Further Into Russia - The New York Sun - April 6th, 2024 [April 6th, 2024]
- France's Macron Tries to Jolt Europe Into Taking Tougher Approach With Putin - WSJ - The Wall Street Journal - April 6th, 2024 [April 6th, 2024]
- How Putin's Relationship With Islam Works - The American Conservative - April 6th, 2024 [April 6th, 2024]
- Ukraine embraces far-right Russian 'bad guy' to take the battle to Putin - POLITICO Europe - April 6th, 2024 [April 6th, 2024]
- Will Keen on Playing Vladimir Putin in Patriots on Broadway: The Sign of a Great Liar Is the Ability to Lie to Oneself - Variety - April 6th, 2024 [April 6th, 2024]
- Kim Jong Uns correspondence with Putin shoots up amid cooperation over Ukraine - NK News - April 6th, 2024 [April 6th, 2024]
- Cathy Young on Putin's American Fans - Reason - April 6th, 2024 [April 6th, 2024]
- Putin regime cracks down on Central Asian immigrants The Militant - The Militant - April 6th, 2024 [April 6th, 2024]
- Putin, Russia and what might have been | Daily Gate City - Keokuk, Iowa | mississippivalleypublishing.com - Mississippi Valley Publishing - April 6th, 2024 [April 6th, 2024]
- Do Russians Believe Putin's Propaganda? - AOL - April 6th, 2024 [April 6th, 2024]
- Putin and the Superiority Myth - Center for European Policy Analysis - April 6th, 2024 [April 6th, 2024]
- Vladimir Putin Pushes Russia To Make Consoles To Compete With PlayStation And Xbox - Kotaku - April 6th, 2024 [April 6th, 2024]
- Reality is chipping away at Putinism - The New Statesman - April 6th, 2024 [April 6th, 2024]
- Putin Is No Ally In the War on Terror in 2024 - 19FortyFive - April 6th, 2024 [April 6th, 2024]
- Opinion | Joe Lieberman and Gordon Humphrey: How to counter Putin's lies - The Washington Post - The Washington Post - April 6th, 2024 [April 6th, 2024]
- Opinion | I am proud to have spoken out against Putin's crimes in Ukraine - The Washington Post - April 6th, 2024 [April 6th, 2024]
- Georgia's government plays into Putin's hands as it moves to suppress art and culture - The Conversation - April 6th, 2024 [April 6th, 2024]
- Russia election: Putin declared winner of race that was never in doubt - The Associated Press - March 20th, 2024 [March 20th, 2024]
- Exclusive: Putin to visit China in May - Reuters - March 20th, 2024 [March 20th, 2024]
- Putin Urges Russians to Unite on Ukraine War - The New York Times - March 20th, 2024 [March 20th, 2024]
- Putin Aide on 'Sham' Election Attacks: 'Not Going to Justify Ourselves' - Newsweek - March 20th, 2024 [March 20th, 2024]
- West condemns 'sick' Putin's rigged election win as Xi sends congrats to Moscow - POLITICO Europe - March 20th, 2024 [March 20th, 2024]
- What's Next After Putin's Win, and Why U.S. Home Prices May Start to Drop - The New York Times - March 20th, 2024 [March 20th, 2024]
- Putin planning buffer zone around border with Ukraine - The Hill - March 20th, 2024 [March 20th, 2024]
- With the election behind him, Putin says Russia aims to set up a buffer zone inside Ukraine - The Associated Press - March 20th, 2024 [March 20th, 2024]
- Vladimir Putin and Ebrahim Raisito strengthen Russian-Iranian relations - The Jerusalem Post - March 20th, 2024 [March 20th, 2024]
- Putins Orchestrated Election Leaves Russians With No Other Choices - The New York Times - March 20th, 2024 [March 20th, 2024]
- Putin speaks Navalny's name for first time, claims he agreed to prisoner exchange - POLITICO Europe - March 20th, 2024 [March 20th, 2024]
- How Xi and Putin took parallel paths to become life rulers - Business Insider - March 20th, 2024 [March 20th, 2024]
- The West's New Approach Can Save Georgia From Putin - Newsweek - March 20th, 2024 [March 20th, 2024]
- Putin had to contrive a landslide because he knows cracks are showing in Russian society - The Guardian - March 20th, 2024 [March 20th, 2024]
- Basking in his Russian election win, Putin talks about political nemesis Alexei Navalny's 'sad' death for the first time - CNBC - March 20th, 2024 [March 20th, 2024]
- Putin Isn't Hitler, He's Mussoliniand Ukraine Is His Abyssinia - Modern War Institute - West Point - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- Analysis: Is the GLSDB One of Nuland's Promised 'Nice Surprises' for Putin? - Kyiv Post - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- Secret Putin palace discovered with yachts, personal waterfall: report - Business Insider - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- Putin challenger submits 105000 signatures backing his election campaign - POLITICO Europe - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- Russia's Putin blames Ukraine for crash of POW's plane and pledges to make investigation public - The Associated Press - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- Russia's war on Ukraine a 'huge issue' for EU as Putin's ambitions are 'much more far-reaching' - FRANCE 24 English - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- Putin to visit Turkey in February, Kremlin says - Yahoo News - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- Putin to visit NATO member Turkiye on 12 February - Middle East Monitor - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- Putin Officially Registered For Russian Presidential Election Amid Suppression Of Opposition - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- Putin vs the West: At War TV review world leaders offer candid reflections in BBC documentary - Financial Times - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- An unlikely challenger to Putin brings a rare show of defiance, creating a dilemma for the Kremlin - The Associated Press - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- Analysis: China's rising star visits U.S. over warming Putin-Kim ties - Nikkei Asia - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- Kremlin denies report Putin reached out to the US about ending Ukraine war - Business Insider - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- Belarusian President complains to Putin that Ukraine and Baltic countries "seek better life abroad" video - Yahoo News - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- Putin Vs the West: At War review did Liz Truss really storm out of her own office? - The Guardian - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- U.S. Ally Could Hand Biden New Trump Card for Dealing with Putin - Newsweek - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- Putin says earns $175K, owns couple of apartments and a parking spot - Business Insider - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- Kremlin denies report that Putin reaching out to US, might drop key demands on Ukraine - Reuters.com - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- In Ukraine and Europe, a concern: Has Putin outlasted the US? - The Christian Science Monitor - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- Russian Election Authorities Pick Pro-War Symbol, Putins Favorite Slogan for Presidential Campaign Promo - The Moscow Times - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- Russians who want rid of Putin pin election hopes on anti-war candidate Boris Nadezhdin - The Guardian - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- Secret Putin Residence Discovered Near Finland Dossier Center - The Moscow Times - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- Vladimir Putin Accuses Kyiv Of Trying To Provoke Russia After 2 Years Of Shelling Ukraine - HuffPost UK - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- Russian Anti-War Candidacy Bid An Unexpected Obstacle In Kremlin's Effort To Smoothly Reinstall Putin - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- Russias anti-war presidential candidate submits bid to run against Putin - Semafor - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- Russian Officials Further Stack Deck in Favor of Putin's Reelection - Newsweek - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- Kremlin Hopes Armenia Joining ICC Will Not Affect Relations - The Moscow Times - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- In shadow of Trump, Putin and Orbn, EU struggles to get its act together on Ukraine - POLITICO Europe - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- Putin registered as fourth candidate in Russian presidential election - Yahoo News - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- Kyiv 'strikes airfield' in occupied Crimea as Putin prepares to visit Turkey - The Independent - February 1st, 2024 [February 1st, 2024]
- Vladimir Putin is trying to entice foreign nationals with the offer of Russian citizenship to help him fight against Ukraine - Fortune - January 5th, 2024 [January 5th, 2024]
- Putin's 'peace' is a partitioned Ukraine - The Spectator - January 5th, 2024 [January 5th, 2024]
- Russia's War on Woke: Putin Is Trying to Unite the Far Right and Undermine the West - Foreign Affairs Magazine - January 5th, 2024 [January 5th, 2024]
- Putin's Drive to Rewrite History Snares a Retired Lithuanian Judge - The New York Times - January 5th, 2024 [January 5th, 2024]
- Putin makes passing Ukraine reference in New Year's Eve address - Reuters - January 5th, 2024 [January 5th, 2024]
- Putin Vows to Keep Up Bombardment After a Russian City Is Hit - The New York Times - January 5th, 2024 [January 5th, 2024]
- Putin lauds Russian unity in his New Year's address - POLITICO - January 5th, 2024 [January 5th, 2024]
- Zelenskiy speaks of war, Putin makes passing reference in contrasting New Year speeches - Reuters - January 5th, 2024 [January 5th, 2024]
- Putin Says He Wants Peace in Ukraine But on Russia's Own Terms - Bloomberg - January 5th, 2024 [January 5th, 2024]