Europe’s ‘rewiring’ is crucial, in the face of grinding inflation and Putin’s war – Atlantic Council

Europe has been rewiring itself in impressive ways in the four months since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched hisinvasion of Ukraine.

The coming weeks will show whether that work of building a more resolute European Union for a future of new geopolitical challenges will continueor, instead, if the rewiring will short-circuit before the job is done in the face of rising economic headwinds and Putins grinding war of attrition.

Thus far, the European Union (EU) has remained unified with the United States and others behind anunprecedented set of sanctions on Russia. Further, it has begun to strengthen its hard power throughincreased defense spending, and it has moved swiftly to reduce its shameful energy dependence on Moscow. Most recently the Group of Seven (G7) appears poised to announcean import ban on Russian gold.

In ways Putin never envisioned when he hatched his war, the EU has committed itself to ensuring Ukraines future as a democratic, independent, and European country throughbillions of euros of economic support,unprecedented arms deliveries, and nowan offer of membership candidacy to Ukraine and Moldova.

As NATO prepares to open its summit in Madrid this week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov voiced Moscows growing concern about EU unity of purpose alongside the alliance. He said the EU and NATO were building a coalition to engage in a war with Moscowthat he comparedto Hitler during World War II. As laughable as Lavrov sounds to reasonable earsthis eras tyrannical dictator sits in Moscow and not Berlinit underscores Putins worries about Western common cause and hiswarped view of history.

Yet as impressive as the EU rewiring project has been thus far, its likely to short-circuit in the months ahead unless the political conviction grows even stronger around this historic moment. That will demand faster implementation of new defense and energy policiesand greater support for Ukraine.

As Putin gains ground in Ukraine,with new strikes on Kyiv todayalmost certainly timed to coincide with the G7 meeting in Germany, it will take all the political will European leaders can muster. They will face greater public pressures to end the war with benchmark gas prices climbing an additional 15 percent in the last week amidst thedouble shocksof Russian cuts and a fire at Freeport LNG in Texas,with inflation reaching 8.1 percentin the euro area in May, and with economic recession dangers rising rapidly, given the threat of Russian gas cutoffs this winter.

On another front, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde summoned her colleaguesto an emergency sessionlast week in Frankfurt that was designed to generate solidarity around steps to preempt any danger of a new Eurozone debt crisis reaching Italy from the dual shocks of rising inflation and slowing growth.

Putin is counting on the usual fatigue and political divisions that set in among Western democracies when they must weigh growing domestic concerns against international dangers. Hes seen enough to encourage him, including newly re-elected Emmanuel Macronsfailure to win a majority in the National Assembly, the first time in thirty years thats been denied the French president.

And for all the impressive arms shipments and economic support the Biden administration has delivered Ukraine, the weaponry firing range of some fifty miles remains insufficient to stop the Russian carpet-bombing, for fear of expanding the war.

Beyond that, Putin knows US midterm elections are likely to weaken Biden further amid domestic disputes over the Supreme Courtsoverturningof the Roe v. Wade abortion protections and the countrys continuing disputes over gun laws. Even as Putins wargrows uglier, Americans are seeing less of it on their TV screens.

Meanwhile, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is also looking weaker than in his first days in office, as hehosts the G7leadersin the Bavarian Alps this weekend.

Scholtz facedsuch a storm of criticismthat hes been dragging his feet on heavy weapons deliveries to Ukraine that his Defense Ministry was compelled to publish afull listof completed and planned deliveries, including seven self-propelled Panzerhaubitze 2000 howitzers that at long last have arrived in Ukraine.

Its worth remembering that Europes greatest moments of forward progress typically come at times of crisis, as has been the case again following Putins war in Ukraine. Its at such times that member states better manage their divisions and work more effectively around the EUs mind-bending bureaucracy.

The problem is that the current European divide that looks hardest to fix is afundamental disagreement over how important a Ukrainian victory isand what it would take to bring it about.

The closer you live to Russia as an EU citizen, the more you argue, as I didin this spaceon June 5, that Putin doesnt need the diplomatic off-ramp that Macron is offering but rather the dead-end that can only be brought by tougher sanctions and a more effective Ukrainian counter-offensive backed by longer-range weapons.

Russias closest neighbors knowthat a bad peace in which Ukraine gives up new territory will only provide a respite before Putin resumes his imperial efforts to take all of Ukraine and ultimately other former Soviet areas.

In Western Europe, the desire is greater for a peace that would end the war now, even if the outcome leaves Putin in power and,as Macron has said, avoids humiliating him.

Despite the celebratory rhetoric in Brussels about the European Unions surprisingly robust response to Russias invasion of Ukrainewrites Eoin Dreathis week inForeign Policy, the war has not united the bloc in any unprecedented or transformative way. In fact, its having exactly the opposite effect: Beneath the soaring vista of Ukraine as a catalyst for a more muscular and geopolitically effective EU like deep divisions, shifting allegiances, and a much more complex reality.

Counterbalancing that gloom, Macron, Scholz, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, and Romanian President Klaus Iohannisvisited Kyivon June 16 to hammer home their support for Ukrainian security and European ambitions.

Shortly after they returned, the European Parliamentvotedwith 529 votes to 45 against and 14 abstentions to adopt aresolutioncalling on the heads of state or government to grant EU candidate status to Ukraine and Moldova, which they have now done.

That symbolism must now be complemented by even greater substance. The rewiring of the EU has only just begun to strengthen its defenses, diversify its energy sources, tighten its transatlantic links, and ensure Ukraines survival as a sovereign, free European state.

To stay the course, European leaders and citizens must understand what they are doing isnt just for Ukraine but even more for themselves. The lessons from two devastating World Wars and a Cold War are that staying unified is a prerequisite for victory and that appeasing despots is always self-defeating.

This article originally appeared onCNBC.com

Frederick Kempe is president and chief executive officer of the Atlantic Council. You can follow him on Twitter @FredKempe.

#1 How Far Do Putins Imperial Ambitions Go?Yaroslav Trofimov | WALL STREET JOURNAL

In this chilling analysis, Yaroslav Trofimov lays out in frightening detail just how far Putins imperial ambitions might take him.

Trofimov opens with a bizarre and telling scene, in which Putin, long before his Ukraine invasion, makes a spectacle out of contradicting a nine-year-old on the question of where Russias borders end.

At the Bering Strait with the United States, the nine-year-old boy ventured hesitantly.Putin, who chairs the board of the Russian Geographic Society, contradicted the boy to triumphant applause The borders of Russia, he pronounced, never end.'

Earlier this month, writes Trofimov, Putin said that he views Ukraine as just the first step, with many other territories potential targets. Just this month in St. Petersburg, while honoring the 350th anniversary of Peter the Great, he said that when Peter conquered Sweden he was merely returning what is ours, and strengthening it. Read more

#2 What If Russia Uses Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine?Eric Schlosser | THE ATLANTIC

As Putins war in Ukrainebogs downinto a battle of attrition, the danger that Vladimir Putin willdeploy battlefield nuclear weapons persists. In this richly reported piece, Eric Schlosser interviews nuclear weapons exports to explore what could happenand how the United States could respond.

The risk of nuclear war, Schlosser warns, is greater today than at any other time since the Cuban missile crisis. And the decisions that would have to be made after a Russian nuclear strike on Ukraine are unprecedented. In 1945, when the United States destroyed two Japanese cities with atomic bombs, it was the worlds sole nuclear power. Nine countries now possess nuclear weapons, others may soon obtain them, and the potential for things going terribly wrong has vastly increased. Read more

#3 What Makes a Power GreatMichael J. Mazarr | FOREIGN AFFAIRS

In this smart, in-depth analysis, Michael Mazarr draws from a RAND corporation study on what makes great powersand how they can fall.

Over the course of fifteen months, Mazarr led a RAND Corporation study for the US Defense Departments Office of Net Assessment, supported by analysis from outside historians. The study isolated a number of national characteristics that throughout history have underpinned national competitive successincluding a strong national ambition, a culture of learning and adaptation, and significant diversity and pluralism.

These domestic strengths are the building blocks of international power. But, Mazarr warns, to enable a country to succeed, they must reinforce and support one another. And they must not fall out of balance. Too much national ambition, for instance, can lead to overreach, imperiling the country that overcommits itself. But countries with too little ambition, diversity, or willingness to learn and adapt risk starting a negative cycle that can spiral into national decline.

Read this study to learn why it is that the United States, if it is to prevail in the years ahead in contests with China and Russia, will have to do more than just outspend its rivals on defense or advanced military technologies. It will have to nurture the qualities that make great powers dynamic, innovative, and adaptive. Read more

#4 After a Pivotal Period in Ukraine, US Officials Predict the Wars PathHelene Cooper, Eric Schmitt, Julian E. Barnes| NEW YORK TIMES

Based on analyses by a number of US defense officials, including Atlantic Council military fellows, this New York Times article provides a useful examination of how the US defense establishment expects the war in Ukraine to unfold.

Now that four to six weeks have passed since Russia shifted its main focus to eastern Ukraine, Cooper, Schmitt, and Barnes write, officials say the picture is increasingly clear: Russia is likely to end up with more territory, they said, but neither side will gain full control of the region as a depleted Russian military faces an opponent armed with increasingly sophisticated weapons.

In this situation, they add, other analysts predict a back and forth that could stretch for months or even years. This is likely to keep going, with each side trading territory on the margins, [director of Russian studies at CNA Michael] Kofman said. Its going to be a dynamic situation. There are unlikely to be significant collapses or major surrenders.Read more

#5 A Ukrainian Refugees Fight To Save The Family She Left BehindEd Caesar | NEW YORKER

This weeks must-read is Ed Caesars riveting, heartbreakingNew Yorkerpiece about a Ukrainian family separated by the war and navigating life as refugees from Putins war.

Follow Inna Blahonravina and her daughters Sasha and Oliviia as they depart Ukraine in midst of Russian air-raids on Kiev, leaving Innas husband Maksym behind. It is a chronicle of resilience and separation, fear, and hope, and it shows a portion of the vast human cost of Putins brutal invasion of Ukraine.

Once, Caesar writes, Oliviia looked over Innas shoulder as she read on her phone about an attack on Kyiv. The report was accompanied by an image of a building on fire, with rescuers at the scene. Oliviia asked who the people in the photograph werewhether they were Russian or Ukrainian, and if one of them was Vladimir Putin. Then she said, Mommy, Im so glad were not killed. Every day, the kids had video calls with their father. Maksym tried to keep the conversations lighthearted, but even banal topics could be laced with sadness.

Do you miss the cats? hed ask. Read more

Image: Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany Olaf Scholz, President of the French Republic Emmanuel Macron, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of the Council of Ministers of the Italian Republic Mario Draghi and President of Romania Klaus Iohannis (L to R) are pictured during the official welcome ceremony outside the Mariinskyi Palace, Kyiv, capital of Ukraine.

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Europe's 'rewiring' is crucial, in the face of grinding inflation and Putin's war - Atlantic Council