Nov 19th 2021
by Ted Nordhaus
TWELVE YEARS ago, the UNs climate summit in Copenhagen, COP15, was dubbed Hopenhagen. The 11-day event opened with a short film depicting a fictional Scandinavian girl having a nightmare: an Earth wracked by climate change opens up to swallow her and violent waters threaten to drown her. She wakes up screaming, watches world leaders giving speeches about climate change on the COP15 website, and then videos herself begging the politicians to please help the world!
The Economist today
A daily newsletter with the best of our journalism
But the proceedings ended in failure. Environmental groups and European officials blamed America. Small island nations blamed China. China and India blamed rich countries.
Today, a real Scandinavian girl insists the nightmare has come trueand blames world leaders for failing to act. You have stolen my dreams and my childhood, Greta Thunberg thundered, to cheers from the global climate commentariat at the UN General Assembly in 2019. There is no Planet B, she sneered, blah blah blah, mocking the French president, Emmanuel Macron, for adopting the long-time slogan of environmental activists, at a youth climate summit in September.
At the UN climate conference in Glasgow, COP26, the phony optimism of Hopenhagen and the adolescent cynicism of Greta were present in roughly equal measure, two sides of the same apocalyptic coin. Activists, scientists and commentators conjured up catastrophic futures and bemoaned the lack of progress, while inveighing against doomism and demanding an immediate, dramatic social and political transformation.
Taken at face value, doom would not be an irrational reaction to the claims of the climate movement. If planetary catastrophe, societal collapse and perhaps even human extinction are likely (absent a complete transformation of human civilisation), then fatalism is a reasonable response. But the realities of climate change are less terrifying and the global response more promising than the reductive claims of environmental activists might lead people to believe.
Deaths around the world from climate-related disasters are at an all-time low. Peoples vulnerability to extreme weather has fallen rapidly in recent decades. Recent research in Global Environmental Change shows that climate vulnerability has declined the most in recent decades among the poor globally, owing to the resilience that comes with economic growth and development.
At the same time, long-running efforts to slow the growth of emissions appear to be working. Global emissions appear close to a peak and the International Energy Agency projects that the world is on track for less than 3C of warming above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century, a far cry from forecasts of 5C or more that many thought likely a decade ago. Admittedly, a warming of 3C is not a walk in the park. But given continuing economic growth and development, it is likely to be a future in which human societies will fare reasonably well. The good news is that if countries uphold their commitments from the past several years to sharply cut emissions, the world will be in position to limit warming closer to 2C, the long-standing international target for climate stabilisation.
Unfazed by these less-than-dystopian assessments, the global climate-industrial complexa nexus of campaigners, green charities and sustainable-business practitioners who are aided, abetted and amplified by their ideologically (and socially) aligned handmaidens in academia and stenographers in mediahas simply moved the goalposts for climate stabilisation, from 2C to 1.5C warming above pre-industrial levels, precisely when major emitting countries had found a workable framework to limit warming to 2C, or at least be within shouting distance of it.
The 1.5C target, by contrast, is implausible (and, like all temperature targets, largely arbitrary). Achieving it would require rebuilding the entire global energy economy within a decade or so. That means inventing technologies to make steel, cement and fertiliser, and to power ships, aircraft and much else on a similar timeframe, as well as removing vast quantities of carbon from the atmosphere over the latter half of the century. The activist community further insists upon re-engineering the global economy without many of the technologies that most technical analyses conclude would be necessary, including nuclear energy, carbon capture and carbon removal.
The exaggerations and impractical demands of the global climate movement are frequently excused as useful idiocies, a prod to national leaders to take more ambitious action. But there are other consequences that are far less salutary. To appease influential domestic environmental constituencies, Western political leaders have made far-reaching but non-binding commitments to cut emissions that they almost certainly cannot keep. To justify those commitments politically, even as theatre, those same leaders need to demonstrate that they are demanding similar commitments from emerging economies, notably China and India.
And so, even as China has promised to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060 and India by 2070, many national leaders and environmentalists demand ever more, such as a phase out of all new coal generation by the end of the decade, despite the fact that most wealthy nations continue to depend heavily on coal, oil and natural gas themselves.
China and India are large and powerful enough not to be bullied. But other poor countries are not. Finance for even natural gas, the least emitting of all fossil fuels, has dried up across Africa and much of the developing world, under pressure from Western countries and Western-led development institutions.
From the perspective of fairness, economic development and (not incidentally) climate resilience, fossil-fuel infrastructure arguably has the highest value in poor countries. Historically, international-development finance has underwritten those investments. But in the hothouse that is international climate politics, those are the investments that the climate movement and Western political leaders insist must be abandoned, ironically in the name of climate justice, even as rich countries pursue projects like the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and the Cumbria coal mine in the name of energy security.
The resulting contradictions are head-spinning. Tough talk by Western leaders to appease the climate movement is followed by commitments that are modest, symbolic and unenforceable. Grand agreements to end deforestation and phase out fossil-fuel infrastructure within a decade, turn out, upon closer examination, to be vague and subject to wildly different interpretations.
The costs, predictably, fall on the global poor. Stoked by an apocalyptic panic among the chattering classes in the richest countries in the world, unable to give up fossil fuels domestically or force their emerging economic competitors to do so, Western leaders punch down on the poorest nations in the world.
Therein lies the fundamental tension within the climate movement. To acknowledge progress or recognise that climate-mitigation objectives need to be balanced with other societal prioritiesnot least the adaptive capacity that is enabled by the continuing use of fossil fuelswould require abandoning pseudo-scientific claims that hard biophysical boundaries loom, and jettisoning utopian fantasies of global government and a world powered entirely by renewable energy. Moreover, it would mean giving up self-flattering notions that the future of humanity hangs on the outcome of an epic struggle between corporations and environmentalists.
A climate movement less in thrall to fever dreams of apocalypse would focus more on balancing long-term emissions reductions with growth, development and adaptation in the here and now, recognising that the former will take decades to achieve while the latter confer not only much greater climate resilience today, but a range of further benefits for people far into the future.
Unfortunately, doing this serves none of the discursive needs of the climate-industrial complex, which seems to grow both larger and wealthier with every failure. The real outcome of the COP26 meeting is to further entrench the sad reality that the global poor are on their own. Practical action to cut emissions and improve resilience will remain primarily a national, not global, enterprise.
More than a decade after COP15, poor nations are still waiting for the modest pledges of technology transfer and climate-adaptation aid made at Copenhagen. Meanwhile, Western nations and development institutions, egged on by the climate movement, will proceed with efforts to choke off virtually all finance for fossil-fuel-based infrastructure in poor countries. Its easy pickings for Western environmentalists, UN functionaries and political leaders alike, and there is no one capable of stopping them.
What would a constructive way forward look like? An activist movement that took its concerns about climate justice seriously would acknowledge that the environmental impacts happen at the intersection of a warming climate and povertyand it would support, rather than oppose, continuing access to fossil fuels for the poorest people in the world, since theyre too expensive to replace for the moment and they make poor countries more resilient to the impact of climate change. Moreover, the movement would understand that because energy economies are path-dependent and emergent, they wont yield quickly to calls for sweeping and immediate transformation and that, as such, there are limits to what both politics and protest can accomplish.
Most importantly, a wiser green-activist movement would recognise that when it places Western leaders between impossible demands and the realities of their domestic political economies, it is the poor, not the activist class, that end up paying for it.
_____________
Ted Nordhaus is the founder and executive director of the Breakthrough Institute, a research centre focused on technological solutions to environmental challenges. He is a coauthor of Break Through: Why We Cant Leave Saving the Planet to Environmentalists (Mariner, 2009) and the essays The Death of Environmentalism and An Ecomodernist Manifesto.
Read more:
Ted Nordhaus on how green activists mislead and hold back progress - The Economist
- Proof-of-Concept Exploit Released for Progress Software OpenEdge Vulnerability - The Hacker News - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- Progress being made on fire alarms, Oswego town supervisor says - oswegocountynewsnow.com - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- Progress on the Boyertown Express featured at Dinner - Berks Weekly - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- Fire Crews Stop Forward Progress of Two-Acre Brush Fire Near Vandenberg - Santa Barbara Edhat - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- Hopewell plans to install speed cameras at three city schools - Progress Index - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- New numbers on progress of penny sales tax - The Post and Courier - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- Long Island woman who survived acid attack continues to make progress in recovery - PIX11 New York News - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- Beam marks progress toward bringing 1st-ever MLS team to San Diego - NBC San Diego - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- McKone: Irish-American progress and paradoxes | Perspective | timesargus.com - Barre Montpelier Times Argus - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- Big East reportedly making a lot of progress on media rights deals with CBS, Fox - Awful Announcing - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- Berrien County farmers note slow progress on the new Farm Bill - News/Talk/Sports 94.9 WSJM - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- END OF SESSION: Sen. Crider and Rep. Cherry reflect on progress made during the legislative session - Greenfield Daily Reporter - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- Vowles being patient with Sargeant but expects to see "progress" - RaceFans - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- Inflation ticked up in February, reversing some prior progress - ABC News - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- Latest NEOM progress video of The Line is indicator of scale - Supercar Blondie - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- Statewide Impact of Ohio Intel ProjectEvident in Initial Progress Report - Scioto Post - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- SpaceX makes significant progress with third Starship orbital test flight - TechCrunch - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- UPDATE: Forward progress stopped on vegetation fire near Lompoc - KSBY News - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- Lady Rattlers and Diamondbacks ready to roll - Progresstimes - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- SpaceX celebrates major progress on the third flight of Starship - Ars Technica - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- Helldivers 2 Galactic War live map: Track status and progress with this Liberty-approved web app - Windows Central - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- Pittsburgh police will only respond to calls of in-progress emergencies as part of new staffing plan - Police News - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- A year of achievement, rebuilding and progress for utilities - Yoursun.com - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- Trkiye: No Direct Dialogue with Damascus, No Progress in Normalization - Asharq Al-awsat - English - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- A WORK IN PROGRESS | News | shelbynews.com - Shelbynews - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- From recurrent networks to GPT-4: Measuring algorithmic progress in language models - Tech Xplore - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- U.S. Inability To Address Nuclear Waste Harms Environmental Progress - Newsweek - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- Park Progress - Greater Wilmington Business Journal - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- SF supervisor to hold hearing on homeless-shelter progress | Housing | sfexaminer.com - San Francisco Examiner - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- 'It's good to see progress being made on the site': Revised vision for Liberty Theater property in Libertyville - Daily Herald - March 16th, 2024 [March 16th, 2024]
- Diversity Among Emmy Winners Is a Result of Industry Progress - TheWrap - January 18th, 2024 [January 18th, 2024]
- What would Dr. King say about progress and 2024? - The Chicago Cusader - January 18th, 2024 [January 18th, 2024]
- Police: Petersburg woman reportedly used hammer to hit her boyfriend - Progress Index - January 18th, 2024 [January 18th, 2024]
- Spokane County crews make great progress ahead of another storm system - AOL - January 18th, 2024 [January 18th, 2024]
- Lady Tigers Split Last Weeks Game's Lexington Progress - lexingtonprogress.com - January 18th, 2024 [January 18th, 2024]
- Lexington Police Investigate Shooting at Walmart Lexington Progress - lexingtonprogress.com - January 18th, 2024 [January 18th, 2024]
- Scotts Hill Lions Dominated Last Week Lexington Progress - lexingtonprogress.com - January 18th, 2024 [January 18th, 2024]
- Older Couple Rescued From Submerged Vehicle Lexington Progress - lexingtonprogress.com - January 18th, 2024 [January 18th, 2024]
- Fore-ward Progress | Bintelli's new River Ridge facility to focus on making electric golf carts - WDRB - January 18th, 2024 [January 18th, 2024]
- VIDEO: Project manager gives update on Glenn McConnell Widening progress - Live 5 News WCSC - January 18th, 2024 [January 18th, 2024]
- Truck driver sentenced for trafficking cocaine to Prince George County - Progress Index - January 18th, 2024 [January 18th, 2024]
- After decades of little progress, Milwaukee begins new approach to improve lives of Black men and boys - madison365.com - January 18th, 2024 [January 18th, 2024]
- Women are bored of waiting: Slow progress on shattering the glass ceiling on company boards - I by IMD - I by IMD - January 18th, 2024 [January 18th, 2024]
- Now Accepting Applications for the 2024 Progress Software Mary Szkely Scholarship for Women in STEM - GlobeNewswire - January 18th, 2024 [January 18th, 2024]
- "Some progress made" at Onslow BOE meeting, according to number of parents - WCTI12.com - January 18th, 2024 [January 18th, 2024]
- Spokane County crews make great progress ahead of another storm system - Nonstop Local - January 18th, 2024 [January 18th, 2024]
- DeSantis took credit for Florida's progress but Iowa may have sniffed out his bravado | Opinion - Yahoo News Canada - January 18th, 2024 [January 18th, 2024]
- Has the Israeli Military Made Progress in Its Goal of Destroying Hamas? : State of the World from NPR - NPR - January 18th, 2024 [January 18th, 2024]
- Jan. 19 Panel Examines 30-Year Progress of Women in Research - Mirage News - January 18th, 2024 [January 18th, 2024]
- Ducks' Midseason Check-in: Progress, Improvement Areas & More - The Hockey Writers - January 18th, 2024 [January 18th, 2024]
- Companies are hiding their climate progress. A new report explains why. - Grist - January 18th, 2024 [January 18th, 2024]
- Lou Leonatti With Progress Mexico Gives Hospital Bankruptcy Hearing Update On AM 1340 KXEO Am I Awake Morning Show - KXEO - January 18th, 2024 [January 18th, 2024]
- Seaside Heights Wants to See Progress From Developers, Will Investigate 'Bamboo' Property - Shorebeat - January 18th, 2024 [January 18th, 2024]
- Progress over perfection: Is Coach modelling a path for fashion transformation? - Vogue Business - January 18th, 2024 [January 18th, 2024]
- Watch the video of the Edmonds armed robbery in progress - MyNorthwest - January 18th, 2024 [January 18th, 2024]
- Albemarle County house burns to the ground in late night fire - The Daily Progress - January 18th, 2024 [January 18th, 2024]
- GHDDI and Microsoft Research use AI technology to achieve significant progress in discovering new drugs to treat ... - Microsoft - January 18th, 2024 [January 18th, 2024]
- Henderson County Suspects Apprehended in Trenton Lexington Progress - lexingtonprogress.com - January 18th, 2024 [January 18th, 2024]
- HCFD Reports Lowest Number of Residential Fires - lexingtonprogress.com - January 18th, 2024 [January 18th, 2024]
- Unlocking The Future: CAGA's Progress In Web3 And Blockchain Innovation - Benzinga - January 18th, 2024 [January 18th, 2024]
- Underwhelming performance: Quarterbacks still a work in progress - Daily O'Collegian - September 3rd, 2023 [September 3rd, 2023]
- Governor Hochul Announces Progress in Increasing MTA Accessibility - ny.gov - September 3rd, 2023 [September 3rd, 2023]
- A progress report: The columnist's garden in September - Kennebec Journal and Morning Sentinel - September 3rd, 2023 [September 3rd, 2023]
- September 2023: Innovative researchers celebrate scientific ... - Environmental Factor Newsletter - September 3rd, 2023 [September 3rd, 2023]
- Progress over perfectionism - Lynn University - September 3rd, 2023 [September 3rd, 2023]
- Signs of progress on new Folsom Medical Office Building - UC Davis Health - September 3rd, 2023 [September 3rd, 2023]
- LA District FUDS team makes progress on Nellis Remedial Action ... - spl.usace.army.mil - September 3rd, 2023 [September 3rd, 2023]
- UFC Fight Night 226 winner Volkan Oezdemir pleased with progress after training with Khamzat Chimaev - Yahoo Sports - September 3rd, 2023 [September 3rd, 2023]
- Seeing signs of progress, Tigers take on White Sox - Deadspin - September 3rd, 2023 [September 3rd, 2023]
- Qualifications recognition: A door to collective progress - University World News - September 3rd, 2023 [September 3rd, 2023]
- Farm Progress Show opens on Tuesday in Decatur - Herald & Review - September 3rd, 2023 [September 3rd, 2023]
- General Squier sculpture is in progress - The County Press - Thecountypress - September 3rd, 2023 [September 3rd, 2023]
- Antimalarial drug discovery: progress and approaches - Nature.com - September 3rd, 2023 [September 3rd, 2023]
- Seeing signs of progress, Tigers take on White Sox - The Albany Herald - September 3rd, 2023 [September 3rd, 2023]
- Commentary: Nurturing progress The evolution of the Annie ... - Standard-Examiner - September 3rd, 2023 [September 3rd, 2023]
- World Cup kiss: feminist progress is always met with backlash, but ... - The Conversation - September 3rd, 2023 [September 3rd, 2023]
- Mapping Progress in Pancreatic Cancer Surgery: Looking to the ... - OncLive - September 1st, 2023 [September 1st, 2023]
- Review in progress: 'Starfield' takes the 'Skyrim' formula out into the ... - GeekWire - September 1st, 2023 [September 1st, 2023]
- Falmouth Water Quality Committee Making Progress On Ocean Outfall - CapeNews.net - September 1st, 2023 [September 1st, 2023]
- Youngstown schools, teachers make progress on negotiations ... - Youngstown Vindicator - September 1st, 2023 [September 1st, 2023]