Second-half injury look-ahead for MLBs hobbled stars: Timelines, progress and what to expect upon return – The Athletic

With the MLB season hitting its midpoint, we thought it was a good time to look ahead and see where 11 of the games biggest stars were in terms of recovery, return, and what to expect when they get back on the field.

The Injury: stress reaction to scapula

Expected Return: late July

deGrom is almost ready for his season debut. During Spring Training he was diagnosed with a stress reaction to his scapula, which sits in the back of the shoulder. This is the latest in a string of injuries to his right side right lat inflammation, right flexor tendinitis, shoulder soreness and a partial UCL tear to the elbow. While the scapula should be healed, I remain concerned about his overall health. Until the root of his injuries is identified, hes going to continue to experience problems. Going forward the partial UCL tear is the most concerning as these often dont heal well without surgery. deGrom will make his third rehab start this Thursday and could be cleared to join the Mets rotation following the All Star break. I just dont see him making it through the year without another injury. He does currently come with an Above Average HPF, so he could pitch well, but we cant expect him to be the ace that he once was throughout the second half. Theres a reason he keeps getting hurt, and a thorough evaluation of his mechanics is necessary to finally put an end to his ongoing arm problems.

The Injury: surgery for left thumb fracture + partial UCL tear in elbow

Expected Return: late August

Harper was putting up MVP numbers through the first two months of the season despite receiving treatment for a torn UCL in his right elbow. Then he took a 97-mph fastball to the hand and underwent surgery to have three pins inserted in his left thumb. Surgical intervention is needed for a fracture when the bone is displaced and needs to be stabilized. Those pins help the bone to heal properly and more quickly. Harpers fracture should heal well, but it will take time. There was a 6-8 week recovery timeline reported, although realistically it will take him closer to 8 weeks to return and even longer to look like himself at the plate. Coming back from a hand injury leads to weakness when gripping the bat, and players typically need another month or so to get their power back.

The elbow further complicates things for Harper. He is undergoing regular scans to track his progress but has yet to pick up a baseball and resume throwing. At some point the Phillies medical staff could determine that Tommy John surgery is the best option. If thats the case, the sooner they can shut him down the better. Having surgery now means Harper has a good shot at being ready for Opening Day next season. Delaying surgery until after the season will make it tough to be healthy by next April. The Phillies could be faced with a tough decision if they are out of the playoff picture in August and that UCL still isnt healed. If Harper is able to make it back for the final month of the season, his HPF (Health Performance Factor a players projected performance based on health upon his return) will fall in the Below Average category. We cant expect the same slugger when he is cleared to return.

The Injury: surgery for left foot fracture

Expected Return: late August

Albies is on the 60-day IL after fouling a ball off of his left foot one month ago. He underwent surgery to address the fracture, but few details have been revealed on the injury. How much time he ends up missing will depend on which bone was fractured a Lisfranc injury or multiple fractures would lengthen his recovery.

Albies is still riding on a medical scooter, meaning he isnt putting weight on the foot. Once he is cleared to start walking again he can slowly resume baseball activities. The Inside Injuries algorithm is projecting an Above Average HPF in September for Albies, so he should contribute late in the season. The bone just needs a lot more time to heal.

The Injury: left wrist surgery for scaphoid fracture

Expected Return: mid August

An offseason motorcycle accident left Tatis with a fractured scaphoid bone in his left wrist. The injury went undiagnosed throughout the lockout, which delayed his surgery. Tatis is now about four months removed from surgery and he still isnt fully cleared. He has been fielding grounders and recently started swinging the bat again, but he isnt facing live pitching yet. Tatis believes he is close to being fully cleared. I wouldnt trust what he says, though. This slow recovery shouldnt come as a surprise as this bone is slow to heal due to poor blood supply. Tatis will eventually get there, but he needs more time.

The base case scenario for Tatis has him being cleared in the next week to swing the bat without restrictions. If that goes well he could start a rehab assignment by the end of the month, but I dont think we can expect him to make his season debut until mid August. When he returns he should be healthy enough to help the Padres, although he wont look like his old self right away.

The Injury: hamate fracture to right wrist

Expected Return: early September

Franco is expected to be sidelined for 5-8 weeks after suffering a fractured hamate bone over the weekend. He will need surgery. This is a pretty common injury for baseball players, and long-term it comes with a favorable outlook. The hamate is located at the base of the wrist and has a hook that is often damaged on a swing due to contact with the end of the bat. During surgery the hook is removed. Other MLB players to suffer the same injury include James McCann, Matt Olson, Juan Soto and Giancarlo Stanton. 6-8 weeks is a realistic timeline to return, then it will take another 2-4 weeks to get back to full strength. That means Franco should return for the final month of the season, but his HPF will fall in the Below Average category at first with his power being affected. He could get back to Above Average before the season ends.

The Injury: surgery to repair torn UCL in left thumb

Expected Return: late August

Perez initially suffered a sprained UCL in his left thumb in May and landed on the IL. Soon after he returned he aggravated the injury, making the sprain (a.k.a. tear) severe enough that it required surgery. Now he is facing an eight week recovery. This is a realistic timeline to return, but it can be a tough injury to come back from. I dont expect Perez to experience a decline behind the plate, but his hitting will suffer when he first returns. We are seeing a lot of serious hand and wrist injuries around the league, which tend to sap power in the first few weeks back. Perez will eventually get back to 100%. It just might not be until the season is almost over.

The Injury: surgery for fractured right index finger

Expected Return: late August

Segura is on the 60-day IL due to a fractured right index finger that required surgery. His injury was likely a complex fracture where the bone breaks into multiple pieces. It comes with a 10-12 week expected recovery time, longer than some of the other hand injuries we have seen this season. Segura underwent a follow-up procedure last week to remove the pins that were inserted during the initial surgery. He remains on track to return by the end of August. Segura is cleared to resume some baseball activities, but picking up a bat will be the big test, and he isnt ready for that yet. Segura will come with an Above Average HPF by September. He should be healthy enough to provide a boost to the Phillies lineup as they make a playoff push in the final month of the season.

The Injury: high ankle sprain

Expected Return: late July

Haniger is on the 60-day IL as he recovers from a grade 2 high ankle sprain suffered in late April. He was injured when his cleat got stuck as he swung, a strange way to suffer such a serious ankle injury. This isnt your standard low ankle sprain. The high ankle is where the tibia and fibula (two lower leg bones) connect at the distal tibiofibular joint, which sits just above the ankle. These injuries tend to be much slower to heal and more challenging to come back from, hence the lengthy recovery time. Hanigers injury is a grade 2, which indicates partial tearing to the ligaments. Over the last few weeks he has made significant progress and could be back by the end of the month, although a return in August seems more realistic. Haniger has been sprinting every few days and is expected to significantly increase the intensity of his workouts next week. Lateral movements are the toughest with a high ankle sprain, so running the bases and chasing down a fly ball are key activities to reintroduce during the rehab process. Haniger will continue to come with a High Injury Risk throughout August due to the highly recurrent nature of the high ankle sprain, but his HPF will fall in the Above Average category.

The Injury: rib cage stress fracture

Expected Return: July 12

Sale made his season debut on Tuesday. He suffered a stress fracture on the right side of his rib cage during a throwing session in March. Now four months removed from the injury, the ribs should be fully healed. He has taken the appropriate amount of time to let the injury heal and then build up his arm strength, so I dont expect any lingering effects of the injury other than some potential rust to shake off early (which was not apparent in his first start back). He comes with an Elevated Injury Risk and an Above Average HPF.

Walker Buehler

The Injury: flexor strain + surgery to remove bone spur in elbow

Expected Return: September

Buehler was diagnosed with a flexor strain to his right forearm last month. The good news is the UCL appears to be undamaged, but this is still an injury that typically leads to a multi-month absence. Because of the lengthy recovery, Buehler went ahead and had surgery to address a bone spur in his ebow that had been bothering him for a while. This was a smart decision as he wasnt going to be allowed to pick up a baseball for over a month, so why not go ahead and address a problem that would come with a similar recovery time. Now Buehler is on the 60-day IL and is hoping to return sometime in August. From a fantasy perspective he wont have much (if any) value this season, but he could be healthy enough to help the Dodgers in the playoffs.

The Injury: right lat/shoulder strain

Expected Return: early August

Peralta suffered a strained teres major muscle nearly two months ago. This runs along the back of the shoulder near the scapula and is important for stability and internal rotation of the shoulder. It is closely connected to the lat muscles but technically is a different injury. Peralta is progressing through a throwing program and is expected to be cleared to throw live batting practice very soon. That puts him on track to go on a rehab assignment following the All Star break with a return to the rotation possible in early August. There is a High Risk of Re-Injury when coming back from a muscular strain like this, and we often see pitchers take additional time to look like their former selves on the mound. Peralta will come with a Below Average HPF in August, but his numbers should improve significantly in September if he can avoid a setback.

(Top photo: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports; Wander Franco photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports)

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Second-half injury look-ahead for MLBs hobbled stars: Timelines, progress and what to expect upon return - The Athletic