What Happens to NATO if Trump Wins in 2024? – The Daily Beast

In the wake of Russias brutal invasion of Ukraine, theres a question worth asking: If Donald Trump gets re-elected in 2024, is NATO toast?

It is axiomatic that free countries have a harder time guaranteeing long-term commitments, but Trump is incomparable as a wild card. What is more, the possibility that Trump will be re-elected isnt implausible. Theres a general consensus that the Republican nomination is his for the taking.

President Joe Biden is currently enjoying a post-State of the Union bounce, but his approval numbers are still underwater. His party is well-positioned to get absolutely trounced in the midterms. And if we havent already learned that anything can happen from the 2016 electionas well as Trumps failed coup attempt in 2020then we never will learn.

During his presidency, Trump harshly criticized our allies, while lavishing praise on dictators like North Koreas Kim Jong Un. I have NATO, I have the UK, which is somewhat in turmoil, and I have Putin. I think Putin may be the easiest of them all, who would think! he said.

Trump also undermined the U.S. intelligence community, most infamously in Helsinki, when he sided with Russia over the FBI. During a 2019 NATO summit, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, French President Emmanuel Macron and U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson were caught on camera mocking Trump.

These are just a few of the many examples of how in four short years, Trump buddied up to dictators while simultaneously straining Americas relationship with our allies.

It could have been even worse. Former National Security Adviser John Boltons memoir says that he had to talk Trump out of quitting NATO in 2018. In a second Trump term, I think he may well have withdrawn from NATO, Bolton said recently. And I think Putin was waiting for that.

Carol Leonnig and Phil Rucker, authors of the book I Alone Can Fix It: Donald J. Trumps Catastrophic Final Year, buttressed this belief; they reported that some of Trumps advisers warned of the political fallout that could come from leaving NATO in his first term.

Well do it in the second term, Trump reportedly decided.

Trump may still get that second term. Then the question could shift from What happens to non-NATO states like Ukraine and Taiwan to What happens to the Baltic states? What happens to Poland?

What I am saying is that Americas ability to maintain the trust of our allies and preserve NATOs principle of collective defense is incredibly tenuous. Regardless of the messages of deterrence that the West is now sending Russia (and China), it could all be upset by an incoming president with little regard to preserving past systems.

In a mere two-and-a-half years, we may (re-)elect a leader of the Free World who is hostile to the idea of preserving the post-World War II rules-based international system and the institutions and alliances that have supported it for more than 70 years. If that happens, a lot of the hard work and sacrifice that is taking place right nowby Ukraine and, to a far lesser extent, the Westcould be in vain.

Of course, it could be that Russias cold-blooded invasion has finally done what Trumps past comments about John McCain, the Access Hollywood tape, and a zillion other third rails could not do. National Journals Josh Kraushaar thinks Trumps Putin praise, coupled with his lack of moral clarity about the invasion, may prove to be his kryptonite. During a recent conversation, Kraushaar told me, I think this is a tipping point moment where the Republican Party may be returning more to its Reaganite roots

Time will tell, but there is little doubt that Trumpian populism has been dealt a blow. In North Carolinas May 17 primary, a Republican candidate is already using the pro-Putin comments of a Trump-endorsed candidate against him.

But theres also a chance that Trump could win the 2024 election at the same time that already-hawkish Republicans (think Sens. Lindsey Graham, Marco Rubio, Tom Cotton, et al.) become simultaneously more anti-Russia. The assumption has always been that a second term for Trump would be one where he was more liberated from establishment advisers and deep state interference. But its at least conceivable that, when it comes to Russia and NATO, Trump would trim his sails.

Sure, this transformation is possible. But I wouldnt want to bet the future of the free world on it. Who would believe that Trump could be fenced in by Republican senators who care more about the countrys interests than they do about not offending the rabid Trumpist base, much less that he learned his lesson and has grown into the role of president?

So long as the potential for a President Trump Part 2 looms on the horizon, our friends and allies will have to look over their shoulders, and our enemies will have good reason to believe they can bide their time.

Thats no way to run a railroad, let alone the Free World.

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What Happens to NATO if Trump Wins in 2024? - The Daily Beast