NATO military response 'almost unthinkable'

How would NATO react if Russia invaded Ukraine?

My feeling is that NATO would condemn this very strongly. But if people expect NATO to protect eastern Ukraine militarily and defend it - I think they're mistaken. I don't think there's willingness on behalf of any NATO member state to commit NATO troops to defending eastern Ukraine. So we will not see military action. That's a pretty safe bet and that's what Mr. Putin knows.

Ukraine is not a NATO member. But wouldn't a Russian invasion of Ukraine mean that NATO members, such as in the Baltics or in Poland, could feel that their territorial integrity is even more threatened?

These countries have, for a long time, felt threatened over the Ukraine developments. We've seen NATO planning on how to increase troop presence there, how to reassure these countries and how to make it clear that the Article 5 borders - the borders of NATO solidarity - will be defended. The US is currently holding military exercises in Poland. Germany has earmarked planes for air policing into the Baltic area later this year, and other countries have committed similar kinds of assets. That's the right thing to do. But it's almost unthinkable to have a military response in reaction to an attack on Ukrainian territory.

Has NATO's increased presence along the alliance's eastern borders had any effect whatsoever?

Jan Techau

It's very hard to say how this is being perceived in Moscow. The goal of the Russian policies at the moment is to regain political control over all of Ukraine - either very quickly or over the next one or two years. [Russia] has played things very systematically over the last few weeks. This is the one thing that Putin has to achieve, because under his watch Russia "lost" Ukraine, if you will. Now he needs to right that wrong from his perspective. That's the goal. Touching Article 5 territory is not his operational goal at this point so far.

Just to get this clear: You say Russia's operational goal is to regain control over all of Ukraine - including the west of the country, including Kyiv?

I'm talking about political control - I'm not talking about occupying the entire country. I'm pretty convinced that it is not in Russian interests to have a military operation in all of Ukraine. But the ultimate goal is to regain political control over who governs the country. Russia thought it was safe with [former Ukrainian President] Yanukovych. They had banked on him to basically hold the fort and to stay in power even throughout the entire Maidan process.

They miscalculated. Yanukovych fled from office, and now they need to regain control. This is the strategic goal of Russia - to keep Ukraine as tightly associated as possible, to tie it into its sphere of influence. What they ultimately want is to have somebody in power who's Russia-friendly. That's not the case at the moment, and that's something they want to change.

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NATO military response 'almost unthinkable'